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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 15th of June 2010
 
Morning
Africa

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

Weekly Piece for the Star Is the World Cup Africa's Tipping Point #worldcup
http://bit.ly/94jnfx

Previous Articles for The Star in 2010
http://j.mp/9vrHxU

My Interview with Jeff Koinange on #K24 Last week
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtvi.ph

Macro Thoughts

1.2380 will cap the Euro.
The Softs begin to get traction, in particular the Breakfast
Commodities led by Coffee.


 


Home Thoughts


 I hear that Aysha has made it to Point Lenana

Sunrise from Point Lenana Mount Kenya
http://j.mp/c77JWS

read more


Death toll rises in Kyrgyz violence FT
Law & Politics

Much of Osh, the capital of south Kyrgyzstan, lay in ruins on Monday
after four days of ethnic fighting that left at least 124 people dead
and sent up to 100,000 ethnic Uzbeks fleeing for safety in nearby
Uzbekistan.The death toll was expected to rise, with witnesses in the
city reporting bodies littering the streets because residents were too
afraid to leave their homes to bury them. According to the Kyrgyz
health ministry, another 1,685 people have been injured since the
fighting began on Friday.

Turmoil in south Kyrgyzstan has raised fears of a broader
conflagration in the Ferghana Valley, a densely populated,
agricultural region shared by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan
that is a flashpoint for ethnic unrest and radical Islam.

Russia is under pressure to commit troops to sort out the situation,
after Roza Otunbayeva, interim president, appealed at the weekend for
military assistance to help quell the unrest in south Kyrgyzstan,
admitting that her government was powerless to control the violence.

The Kyrgyz government blames the riots on “provocateurs” hired by
supporters of deposed president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who was overthrown
in April and has been given political asylum in Belarus.

Conclusions

The Ferghana Valley [from whence Emperor Babur came, in fact] is a
Political Hot Bed.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2215
Pound 1.4750
Yen 91.48
Aussie 0.8567
South Korean Won 1222.90
Rand 7.6775

European Factory output rose 9.5% on the year - Strong.

The euro rose to $1.2249, up from $1.2087 in North American trading
late Friday, its biggest increase on a closing basis since May 21. The
single currency hit a four-year low around $1.19 earlier this month.

"This is the first substantial upside correction in the euro in the
better part of two months," wrote economists at Brown Brothers
Harriman. "The euro's move above its 20-day moving average puts
momentum traders on alert. While the next target comes in near
$1.2300, given the extended positioning and the pace of the losses in
recent weeks, a short-covering fueled recovery can exceed technical
objectives." -

Conclusions

It can go as high as 1.2380 on this Squeeze.

read more



Greece's debt cut Marketwatch
World Of Finance

Moody's cut Greece four notches to Ba1.Moody's cheered the European
Union and International Monetary Fund aid package to Greece but
cautioned investors about implementation risk.

It paved the way for "credible, feasible, and incentive-compatible set
of structural reforms, which have a high likelihood of stabilizing
debt service requirements at manageable levels," said Moody's Sarah
Carlson, vice president-senior analyst, in a news release.

"Nevertheless, the macroeconomic and implementation risks associated
with the program are substantial and more consistent with a Ba1
rating," she said.

The Greek government sais on Monday night that Moody’s downgrade did
not reflect Greece’s progress over the past months in tackling its
problems.

“The latest figures for the Greek budget – with the deficit for the
first five months of the year down by 40 per cent compared to 2009 –
show that the programme that Greece has agreed on with the European
Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary
Fund is on track, a development recognized by all three institutions,”
it said in a statement

Conclusions

This was a Known Known and hence the Euro looked through it.

read more


World Equity Markets At a glance
World Of Finance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was up more than 100 points at
its high, ended 20.18 points lower, or 0.2%, at 10190.89, led by a 2%
decline in DuPont. The Dow was coming off its best weekly performance
in nearly four months.

read more


Christie's Sells Modigliani for $52.6 Million WSJ
Misc.

A limestone bust of a woman with an upswept hairdo by Amedeo
Modigliani sold for $52.6 million at Christie's in Paris on Monday,
making it the priciest artwork ever sold at auction in France.

"Tête" also sets a new record price for Modigliani, the Italian
modernist who is better known for his jewel-toned portraits of women
with swan-like necks. Modigliani's paintings have sold for as much as
$31 million at auction, but his sculptures are coveted in part they
are rare. Only 10 of his 27 sculptures remain in private hands, with
museums owning the rest, Christie's said.

This 1910-12 work, which depicts the head of a woman with a
tribal-mask of a face and a sweeping bouffant, comes from the storied
collection of Gaston Levy, the founder of retail-chain Monoprix who
bought "Tête" in 1927. Christie's, which offered the work on behalf of
Mr. Levy's heirs, priced it to go for up to $7.2 million but wound up
toggling 20 bidders over the course of a 10-minute bidding war. The
winner chose to remain anonymous, the house said.

read more


Glass Menagerie WSJ
Misc.

Daniel Libeskind’s Crystals at CityCenter is filled with light, curves
and luxury shops.

Arriving from McCarran Airport, there’s a moment when the limo turns
off Las Vegas Boulevard and all the buildings of CityCenter appear to
be slightly off-kilter as if they’re kick-dancing in some 21st-century
version of a Busby Berkeley musical. It’s a magical, almost riotous
moment of urban expectation—glowing slabs lean this way and that and
silver icebergs rise with zigzagging rooflines.

As Las Vegas’ epic CityCenter opens, will its mastermind, MGM Mirage
CEO Jim Murren, be seen as a visionary or just another casino
developer?

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities

Coffee futures surged to their highest levels in almost two years, as
doubts surfaced over Brazil's ability to counter an ongoing shortage
of high-quality beans from the rest of Latin America.The latest
harvest from Colombia, traditionally the world's largest producer of
desirable arabica beans, is coming in below expectations for the
second year in a row. Supply is trickling in from Brazil, though that
is stillexpected to fall short of demand.

Coffee for July delivery ended 6 cents, or 4%, higher at $1.5095 a
pound on ICE Futures,This is the highest since July 2, 2008.

Conclusions

It was Jeremy Block Esquire who called this.

read more


Coffee July 2010 INO 1 Year Chart
Commodities

Last Price    150.95
Contract High    180    Contract High Date    2008-02-15
Contract Low    120.1 Contract Low Date    2009-03-10

Conclusions

Headed through 180.00.

read more


Soft Commodities at a Glance INO
Commodities

Cocoa +1.61%
Sugar +2.03%

Conclusions

I expect further strengthening for Cocoa and Sugar.

read more




Bordeaux 2009 Futures Sell 700 Cases an Hour, Freeze Computer Bloomberg
Food, Climate & Agriculture

When offers of 2009 Chateau Cantemerle futures hit his inbox, Chris
Adams, president of New York retailer Sherry-Lehmann Wine & Spirits,
didn’t hesitate to snap up 50 cases.
The 2009 vintage is another great one in Bordeaux, and futures buying
heated up last week as more chateaux released prices for their
still-in-the-barrel wines.

“We’ve already sold out of La Fleur-Petrus at $135 a bottle,” said Adams.

Ditto chateaux d’Angludet at $30 and Duhart-Milon Rothschild at $60,
now selling elsewhere for $80-plus. I rated all three highly at the
April en primeur tastings in Bordeaux.
But the biggest names are holding back, leading to speculation that
prices will be the highest ever. So far, most labels are 5 percent to
70 percent more expensive than the sticker-shock futures of the
fabulous 2005s.

read more



Afghan Officials Elated by Minerals Report NYT
Minerals, Oil & Energy

The report, produced by the American military and the United States
Geological Survey, found that Afghanistan had at least $1 trillion in
mineral wealth.Assuming the $1 trillion valuation and Afghanistan’s
population of 29 million, that would give each Afghan man, woman and
child $34,482.76.

Bidding for rights to explore the reserves could begin in as little as
six months, said Jawad Omar, spokesman for the Mines Ministry. The
minister is expected to give a detailed news conference on the report
this week.

read more


A hopeful Africa must prize leadership Mo Ibrahim FT
Africa

Ten years ago, The Economist told its elite readership around the
world that Africa was “the hopeless continent”. It expressed a
sentiment that was pervasive – that Africa was economically backward
with no chance of growth and that its political leadership was at best
corrupt and at worst murderous.

As the publication has been gracious enough to admit, it was wrong.
Africa has delivered many reasons for hope over the past decade.
Growth has outpaced the rest of the world. World-beating businesses
have emerged and, given Africa’s rich natural resources, financiers
are finally waking up to the investment potential of the continent.
The geniuses in investment banks who used arrogantly to deride the
risks of investment in Africa while pouring billions into phoney
derivatives based on the American housing bubble have been proven to
be as spectacularly wrong on Africa as they were on everything else.

Conclusions

The Prize which has been no Prize for the 2nd consecutive Year.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg Visual -0.795% 2010
World Of Finance

Value27,446.09    
Change596.920     
% Change2.223

Conclusions

Has recovered some of late.

read more


Egypt EGX30 Index Bloomberg Visual +1.48% 2010
Emerging Markets

Value6,300.32    
Change-0.520     
% Change-0.008

read more


Nigeria All Share Index Bloomberg Visual +22.168% 2010
Africa

Value25,444.96    
Change22.170     
% Change0.087

Conclusions

Basing Out.

read more


"No" campaign could be behind Kenya blasts: analysts Reuters
Law & Politics

Grenade attacks at a Kenyan rally may have been carried out by those
seeking to block the passage in August of a proposed constitution in
order to protect personal interests, analysts said on Monday.At least
six people were killed and dozens more were injured by the blasts at
Sunday's prayer meeting organised by church leaders who are opposing
the proposed new law.

Analysts said compatriots in the "No" camp, some of whom had
benefitted from years of corrupt government to amass large tracts of
land illegally, could be to blame.

"The biggest losers are the land barons, if there is anyone to
suspect, they will be first on the list," said political analyst
Mutahi Ngunyi.

The new constitution, if implemented, will require those who grabbed
public land to hand it back.

Some Christian leaders are opposed to the proposed charter, with their
strongest objection being against clauses which will enshrine Muslim
Kadhi courts into the constitution and legalise abortion under certain
circumstances, such as the mother's health being endangered by a
pregnancy.They are backed by politicians who are against proposed land
reforms. The leading politician in the group is the Minister for
Higher Education, William Ruto, a former key ally of Prime Minister
Raila Odinga.The Islamic community has generally endorsed the
charter.Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki, are leading the campaign for
the adoption of the draft, which several opinion polls have shown is
likely to sail through at the August 4 referendum.

"It is tempting at this stage to say perhaps the Muslims are doing
this but all indications are that the 'Yes' people are ahead so why
would someone do this?"

The "No" camp has blamed the "Yes" for the blasts, but Odinga warned
against trading accusations.

Although a certain measure of violence is usually associated with
electoral cycles in Kenya, which is East Africa's biggest economy, an
explosion at a rally is unprecedented.

"Apart from the fear factor, the outcome of the referendum will still
be the same. Kenyans have made up their minds," said Omar Hassan, a
member of Kenya National Commission on Human Rights.

read more


Military joins hunt for Nairobi park bombers Nation
Law & Politics

So far, investigations have confirmed that three grenades were lobbed
into the crowd. Investigators have already recovered pins, a security
feature in a grenade which arms the device when it is removed, and the
tail sections. The tails confirmed that stun grenades were used
against the worshippers.

Police confirmed that they had found a man dead behind the wheel of a
car at Uhuru Park. They said he was either in his late thirties or
early forties and still had his car keys. The man had injuries caused
by a grenade and still had his mobile phone. Investigators do not know
if he was an innocent bystander who was trying to get to hospital
after being injured.

There was strong suspicion that he was one of three attackers and that
his mobile phone will provide useful leads. Police said three
explosions took place within a span of 20 minutes and that they
believed the attack was executed by three people. Police Commissioner
Mathew Iteere said the dead man’s mobile phone might hold the key to
tracing the key suspects behind the deadly attacks.

Conclusions

The Consensus View appears to have coalesced around the Following;
This was a 'False Flag' Operation and confirms a Rumsfeld 'DeadEnder'
type situation.
You might recall that the 'Deadenders' put up quite a Fight in Iraq.

I do think it is incumbent on the Powers that Be that Proper and
credible Investigations are conducted expeditiously and Folks are
brought to book equally quickly otherwise the Government begins to
look helpless.

The Bourse simply looked through the Noise yesterday and is the best
performing Bourse in SSA Bar None.

read more


The NSE20 Bloomberg Visual +32.268% 2010
N.S.E General

Value4,298.84    
Change26.120     
% Change0.611

Conclusions

4320.06 is the 2010 High.

read more


Ecobank Kenya eyes listing Nation
World Of Finance

In March 2010, Ecobank Transnational injected Sh1.15 billion into
Ecobank Kenya bringing the parent company’s total contribution to its
subsidiary to Sh2.3 billion in one year. “One of the key project
implementations for the Kenyan market is the connection to the group
switch which will allow customers to access their funds across the
continent, via over 1,000 ATMs across 29 affiliates in Africa,”
Ecobank Kenya managing director Tony Okpanachi said.

read more



Kenya's KCB offers rights issue at 21 pct discount Reuters
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank said its planned rights issue will be offered at
a 21 percent discount, as it seeks to raise 15 billion shillings to
boost its core capital and fund regional expansion.The nation's
largest lender by assets has a core capital ratio to weighted assets
of just over 8 percent and 12 percent to loans, the bare minimum, and
so needs to raise extra cash to help it grow long-term lending to
mortgage borrowers.

The bank is issuing 887 million new ordinary shares at the rate of two
for every five held, after originally looking to sell 1.1 billion
shares.

The offer opens on July 1 and closes on July 23. Its shares were
trading at 21.00 shillings at 0745 GMT, up from the previous close of
20.75, and analysts said the pricing of the issue would be well
received by shareholders.

Conclusions

"KCB trades on a Trailing PE of 10.00 and is the least expensive of
the big capitalisation banks on this metric. Value investors will
further appreciate the opportunity to upscale their exposure at a 20
percent discount to the prevailing price," said Aly Khan Satchu, an
independent analyst.

KCB has operations spanning the east Africa region from Tanzania to
South Sudan. It says it has 212 outlets.

KCB share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/bshUrU

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          20.75
Total Shares Issued:          2,217,777,664
Market Capitalization:        46,019M
EPS:            2.05
PE:                10.122

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The Price Action from yesterday [Upwards] confirms that the Bourse is
resolutely bullish. The Bourse's Tolerance levels are several notches
higher than last Year and the Year before. The Shilling and the Bourse
evidently diverged with the Shilling bearing the Brunt of Sundays
Blowback.

The NSE20 closed 16.47 points better at 4315.31 and just 0.1% off its
2010 High. It is the best Performing Index that I can find in Africa.
The NASI firmed 0.42 points to close at 93.94.
Market Cap was 1.095173 Trillion versus 1.090217 Trillion last time.
Equity Turnover was 321.043m versus 404.705m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Coffee has exploded out of the Blocks over the last Few sessions in
New York and is up more than 20% over 4 Trading Sessions. The
Breakfast Commodities [Coffee, Sugar Cocoa and Tea] look as if they
have based out and are headed higher.

Eaagads surged 8.7% to close at 50.00 with 6,400 shares traded. Coffee
Prices have simply sky rocketed on the International Exchanges.
Rea Vipingo rallied 3.72% to close at 16.75 and closed the session
trading at 17.50 +8.36% session Highs. Rea Vipingo traded 15,600
shares.
Sasini Tea eased 0.34% to close at 14.45 and traded 97,400 shares.
Kakuzi did not trade.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     7.988m
avg price     5.61 Closing Price 5.60 +0.9%
high price     5.70
low price     5.50
last price     5.70

Conclusions

Safaricom was the 3rd most active Counter at the Bourse. Safaricom was
trading 5.70 +2.7% session highs into the Close. The Response to what
were muscular Results has been muted to date but I expect a move
through 6.10 highs and today we came off the Bottom of the range.

Safaricom share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/4cdZRM

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:          5.55
Total Shares Issued:          40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization:        222,000M
EPS:            0.38
PE:                14.605

Scangroup retreated 1.4% to close 50 cents off its all time closing
High at 35.25. Scangroup traded a 34.00-37.00 range and 52,700 shares.
Demand at the Finish Line outweighed Supply by a Factor of 10-1, which
is set to tip the Price towards the 40.00 mark.

Nation dipped 0.71% to close at 139.00 and traded a 139.00-140.00
range and 205,000 shares worth 28.699m. Nation trades on a PE of
18.182.

Nation share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/5MKGb9

Standard traded 500 shares at 37.00 unchanged.

Kenya Airways drifted 1.98% lower to close at 49.50 and traded a
48.00-50.50 range and 96,700 shares. Kenya Airways trades on a PE of
11.477 and has eased 13.15% since reporting its Full Year results.

Kenya Airways share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/1AaBD1

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          50.50
Total Shares Issued:          461,615,488
Market Capitalization:        23,312M
EPS:            4.40
PE:                11.477

Access Kenya firmed 1.43% to close at 17.70 and traded a 17.30-18.25
range and 56,500 shares.

CMC Holdings rallied 1.456% to close at 13.95 and traded a a
13.80-14.00 range and 44,100 shares.
CARGEN did not trade.

TPS Serena closed 50 cents lighter at 63.50 on light Volume of 1,300 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

The Big Cap Banking Sector has been outperforming for quite a few
weeks and continues to exhibit leadership.

Equity Bank was the 2nd most active Counter at the Bourse. Equity Bank
firmed 1.04% to close at 24.25 and traded a 24.00-25.00 range and
1.814m shares worth 44.089m. Equity Bank. This is a new Closing High
for the Year.
COOP Bank rallied 1.92% to close at a new life time High of 13.25
+1.92% on the day. COOP Bank traded a 13.00-13.60 range and 873,100
shares. Demand at the Close was for 3x the Traded Number of shares
signalling further upside Traction.

COOP Bank share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/26xEpC

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          13.00
Total Shares Issued:          3,492,369,920
Market Capitalization:        45,401M
EPS:            0.85
PE:                15.294


Barclays Bank firmed 0.83% to close at 60.50. 60.00 was resistance on
the charts and we have now crossed that level which is constructive.
Barclays Bank traded a 60.00-61.50 range and 516,800 shares worth
31.331m. Barclays reported a 1st Quarter 2010 just under 10% less than
the previous Year, however, Investors appear to be calculating that
this was a one off Blip.

Barclays Bank share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/3FrB3X

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:          60.00
Total Shares Issued:          1,357,884,032
Market Capitalization:        81,473M
EPS:            4.50
PE:                13.333

KCB announced today that they would sell 2 shares for every 5 Held at
a price of 17.00 and a 21% discount to the Prevailing price. KCB
trades on a PE of 10.00 and hence is the least expensive share amongst
the Big Banks. KCB was unchanged at 20.75 and traded a 20.75-21.25
range and 1.102m shares worth 23.117m.
Stanchart eased 1.38% to close at 214.00 and traded 34,400 shares.

Centum was unchanged at 20.50 with 371,800 shares traded.

NBK rallied 4.575% to close at 40.00 and traded 47,800 shares.
CFC Stanbic firmed 50 cents to close at 71.50 and traded 21,600 shares.
DTB traded 14,800 shares all unchanged at 85.00.
HFCK rallied 50 cents to close at 21.25 and traded 53,400 shares.
NIC closed 25 cents better at 38.00 on 27,900 shares.

Kenya Re dipped 2% to close at 12.25 and traded 170,400 shares.
Jubilee traded 500 shares at 170.00.
PanAfric did not trade.

Olympia Capital closed at 8.40.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was the most active Counter and closed at 180.00 +0.56% and at
its 12 month Closing High. EABL traded a 180.00-181.00 range and
247,300 shares worth 44.523m were traded. EABL trades on a PE of
19.692 and Several Brokers have been citing increased Beer throughput
via the Serengeti Tanzania takeover and have upgraded the Counter.
Good Sized Buy Demand was camped at 180.00 signalling a push higher.

EABL share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/57wrgL

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:          179.00
Total Shares Issued:          790,774,336
Market Capitalization:        141,549M
EPS:            9.09
PE:                19.692

Mumias Sugar rallied 1.54% to close at 13.15. Mumias Sugar traded a
13.05-13.25 range and 1.043m shares worth 13.374m and has a 2-1 Demand
versus Supply Disequilibrium. Mumias Trades on a Forward of just below
10.00. Raw Sugar Prices have apparently based out on the International
Exchanges as well.

BAT was unchanged at 207.00 and traded a 207.00-210.00 range and
101,500 shares worth 21.014m. BAT has a running Yield of about 7%
which is 350 Basis Points over Bills.

KENGEN firmed 0.2933% to close at 17.05 and traded a 17.00-17.30 range
and 295,800 shares. KENGEN's price looks very well supported here and
the News Flow positive and confirming a Scale Up and given that it
remains a Cost Push through Business, the Scale Up looks attractive
for the Equity Stub Holders.
KPLC traded 9,000 shares and was unchanged at 199.00.
Cables closed 1.18% better at 21.50 and traded 134,600 shares.

Kenolkobil firmed 1.0032% to close at 9.95. Kenolkobil traded 596,000 shares.
Total was unchanged at 29.25 and traded 9,800 shares.

Portland traded 300 shares at  124.00 +3.33%.
ARM eased 2 shillings to close at 132.00 and traded 10,300 shares.
Bamburi eased 0.5% to close at 199.00 and traded just 6,100 shares.

Sameer rallied 5.42% to close at 8.75 and traded 23,500 shares.
Unga closed 2.0833% better at 12.25 and traded 11,700 shares.
Eveready eased 2.38% to close at 4.10 and traded 21,300 shares.
Crown Berger did not trade.
BOC Gases traded a 100 shares at 135.00 +3.85%.
Carbacid did not trade.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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