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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

#Mindspeak Saturday 30th October 0930 am
Guest Speaker Martin Oduor-Otieno CEO Kenya Commercial Bank
It will surely be good.

My Interview with Alishia on CNBC Today
http://bit.ly/brEGQV

Thank You

Macro Thoughts

The Tape has never been so enthralling and as Lefevre said in 1923 The
Tape is Your Telescope

Home Thoughts

Granddad [My Father] came over and then promptly took himself off
Saturday Night. I must say I found it quite amusing to be waiting up
for him past Midnight. And then I forgot to switch off the Light and
Layla woke up in the early Hours thinking he had not returned.

Chile’s ghosts are not being rescued John Pilger New Statesman

Law & Politics

Demonstrators stage a protest in the fountain of La Moneda
presidential palace in Santiago on September 16, 2010 in support of
the 35 Mapuche indigenous activists on hunger strike in different
prisons along the country. Photograph: Getty Images.

The rescue of 33 miners in Chile is an extraordinary drama filled with
pathos and heroism. It is also a media windfall for the Chilean
government, whose every beneficence is recorded by a forest of
cameras. One cannot fail to be impressed. However, like all great
media events, it is a façade.

The accident that trapped the miners is not unusual in Chile, but the
inevitable consequence of a ruthless economic system that has barely
changed since the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet. Copper is
Chile's gold, and the frequency of mining disasters keeps pace with
prices and profits. There are, on average, 39 fatal accidents every
year in Chile's privatised mines. The San José mine, where the men
work, became so unsafe in 2007 that it had to be closed - but not for
long. On 30 July last, a labour department report warned again of
"serious safety deficiencies", but no action was taken. Six days
later, the men were entombed.

For all the media circus at the rescue site, contemporary Chile is a
country of the unspoken. At Villa Grimaldi, in the suburbs of the
capital, Santiago, a sign says: "The forgotten past is full of
memory." This was the torture centre where hundreds of people were
murdered and disappeared for opposing the fascism that Pinochet and
his business allies brought to Chile. Its ghostly presence is overseen
by the beautiful Andes, and the man who unlocks the gate used to live
nearby and remembers the screams.

Conclusions

Pilger's Reality Check.

China's Dilemna Foreign Affairs

China

In May and June 2010 Chinese workers organized strikes, which spread
across factories in southern China. By citing labor law protections
passed in 2008, they secured tacit government approval for their labor
action and got pay rises and better working conditions from their
employers. In August Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao delivered a prominent
speech warning that China’s economy and national modernization process
would be jeopardized if the country failed to undertake systemic
political reform. In October, the jailed dissident Liu Xiaobo, one of
hundreds of Chinese that signed a 2008 charter calling for
constitutional democracy, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Together,
these events called attention to the prospects for social and
political reform in China.

In fact, there is no indication that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
will launch major political reforms in the near term. Wen’s speech
did, however, identify China’s central long-term challenge: on the one
hand, Chinese society is growing more complex, demanding, and robust;
on the other, its authoritarian state remains committed to maintaining
a brittle form of social and political control. In a July/August 2001
Foreign Affairs article, “China’s Coming Transformation,” we argued
that emerging tensions between China’s state and society would push
forward social and political reform because any failure to reform
would intensify social conflict, jeopardize economic growth, and
undermine the CCP’s ability to govern. At the same time, we warned,
China’s transformation could prove to be “longer and more tumultuous
than many have expected.”

Conclusions

Submitted by Aly-Khan S. (Mar. 28, 2009) on October 16, 2010 - 6:29am.

The CCP's Preeminent Raison D'Etre is the Exercise of Power. This is
hardwired into the CCP's DNA. The Khamenei Reaction in Iran confirms
that the State [whilst materially weaker in the c21st and just how
weak is way too early to tell] is not yet a Push Over. The Bias I
would input into my Model is of Chinese Government that is far more
likely to play the role of the Puppeteer than the Puppet.

The Interesting Divergence in China is this. The Government [as shown
in the Trawler Boat Saga with Japan] might find itself boxed in by its
new Virtual and Domestic Communities, but from the Right. That has
enormous implications for how China asserts itself abroad.

I cannot help feeling that in the Final Analysis the CCP have an
overflowing Armoury. They have reserves counted in Trillions. They
showed how quickly they can put that to work.

In a World where The FX Markets are the new Geopolitical Theatre, You
might well ask, Who has the Money?

Hu does. Thats just a Singular Advantage at home and abroad.

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke
Nairobi

Ai Weiwei Takes China Battle to Tate, Attacks State ‘Machine’ Bloomberg

Misc.

The 53-year-old Chinese artist -- who has spread more than 100 million
of the hand-painted porcelain sculptures across the Turbine Hall of
the London museum -- sports scruffy black casuals, dusty walking shoes
and a wiry black beard that drops well below his chin.
In Mao’s revolutionary vocabulary, sunflower seeds were symbols of the
people of China. Ai Weiwei’s were crafted over two years in a town
with a 1,000-year-old porcelain tradition.Ai previously co-designed
the Beijing 2008 Olympic Stadium, and then condemned the games as
propaganda. He fights power on all fronts: art, tweets, court battles.

Ai: I don’t think we can interpret it so literally. But it’s made by a
big mass of labor and time because it’s individually sculpted. You can
sense the kind of numbers that often relate to China, because we have
such a population, and only China can make a work like this, because
of the production costs and the intensiveness of labor and skill.
Ai: Not all my work has to be political, but I’m in very political
surroundings. I was born in a political situation.
Today, China is still very political. It’s still a state with no
freedom of expression, such strong censorship and no free action.
Sixty-one years of a nation, and they still think people are not well
educated, and democracy is not feasible for them.
Ai: If I lost the ability to sense the pain, not the pain caused to me
but the pain caused to people, then I would be afraid. Not because of
the violence.
Nayeri: You’re best known for the Olympic Stadium from which you’ve
distanced yourself. Don’t you like that building?
Ai: I like that building. The building is beautiful. It’s a beautiful
product. It’s the kind of political activities associated with it that
I think are disgusting.

You can see it’s a machine: This kind of society is machinery. It will
crash down (on) anything questioning its authority.

A view of "The Unilever Series: Ai Weiwei Sunflower Seeds." The
installation, comprising millions of hand-crafted porcelain seeds, is
on view at Tate Modern, London through May 2. Source: Tate Britain via
Bloomberg

Flashback to 1870 as Cotton Hits Peak WSJ

Commodities

The sudden surge in prices—cotton has risen up to 56% in three
months—has alarmed manufacturers and retailers, who worry they may be
forced to pass on higher costs to recession-weary consumers.The
December cotton contract hit $1.1980 a pound minutes after the opening
of trading on the IntercontinentalExchange Inc. on Friday. It is
officially the highest price since records began back in 1870 with the
creation of the New York Cotton Exchange.

The Mississippi Historical Society has its own records that show
cotton was changing hands at $1.89 a pound during the middle of the
Civil War, which lasted from 1861 to 1865. The U.S. was then the
largest cotton producer at the time and the halt led to what was
dubbed the "cotton famine."

"I've seen a lot of big moves and this exceeds everything," said
Sharon Johnson, senior cotton analyst at First Capitol Group, a
financial adviser. "It's not something you're going to see again in
your lifetime."

The cotton surge is part of a broad-based commodities rally since the
beginning of the year, underpinned by fears over a weakening dollar,
healthy demand from emerging markets and various weather-related
supply disruptions. Along with cotton, prices of so-called soft
commodities such as sugar, orange juice and coffee all have soared,
adding to concerns that consumers might soon be paying higher prices
for daily necessities.

Cotton futures prices pushed past the $1 a pound level on Sept. 20 for
the first time since 1995. In the intervening 15 years, cotton prices
have largely traded between 40 cents and 80 cents.Prices began moving
higher in July as it became clear that a rekindling of demand for
cotton—spurred by manufacturers restocking as the economy
recovered—collided with fears of a shortage.Pakistan, the
fourth-largest producer of cotton, saw its crops affected by
devastating floods this summer. Heavy rains in China crimped that
nation's crop, resulting in a 5.4% drop in global production in
2010.China is the largest cotton producer, followed by India and the
U.S. Even though India and the U.S. reported bountiful harvests this
year, it didn't make up for the declines in China and Pakistan.

Demand from Chinese cotton mills has meanwhile shown no signs of
slowing. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said China bought 267,700
running bales of U.S. upland cotton last week, more than half of the
total bales exported and more than the country usually takes.

On Friday, the China Cotton Association issued a warning on its
website, saying that this surge, though supported by fundamental
factors, was largely caused by speculators.

Conclusions

I wrote about this in My Book Anyone Can Be Rich in 2007-2008.

Cotton Dec 2010 INO 109.49 Last
http://bit.ly/b345EU

Last Price    109.49
Open Int.    128163
Contract High    119.8 Contract High Date 2010-10-14
Contract Low    53.87
First Delivery    2010-12-21

My Tweets from flicking through The Mckinsey Africa Report

Africa

85m African Households earned $5,000 or more #Africa The New Middle
Class www.rich.co.ke By 2040 Africa Labour Force will be 1.1b
FDI #Africa $9b in 2000 $62b in 2008 almost as large as flow into
#China when compared to GDP - The Tape is your Telescope
www.rich.co.ke
Natural Resources accounted for 24% of GDP Acceleration 2000-2008
#Africa www.rich.co.ke #Labour Productivity +2.7% a Year since 2000
316m #Mobile Subscriptions in Africa since 2000 -< #Africa' s Entry
Ticket to the c21st The Silver Bullet www.rich.co.ke
From the Mckinsey Report #Africa Collective GDP 2008 $1.6 Trillion
$860b #Consumer Spend www.rich.co.ke 2020 GDP $2.6 Trillion
Production Of Oil Gas Minerals worth $430b today $540b by 2020 -
Assuming Flat Prices

HSBC Abandons Talks to Acquire South Africa’s Nedbank Bloomberg

World Of Finance

HSBC Holdings Plc abandoned a bid to buy a $7.3 billion controlling
stake in South Africa’s Nedbank Group Ltd.The London-based lender had
been in talks for eight weeks to buy as much as 70 percent of Nedbank,
including a 52 percent stake owned by Old Mutual Plc, Africa’s biggest
insurer. HSBC didn’t say why the talks broke down in a statement
today.

“Nedbank is now for sale to the highest bidder” and the breakdown in
talks “clears the way” for HSBC’s competitor Standard Chartered Plc to
make an offer for Nedbank, Chris Gilmour, a Johannesburg-based analyst
at Absa Investments, said.

Conclusions

They Walked away after 'Due Diligence' which is hardly a ringing Endorsement.

SABMiller Beer Sales Beat Estimates on Asian, African Growth Bloomberg

Retail & Manufacturing

SABMiller Plc, the world’s second- biggest brewer by volume, said beer
sales rose more than analysts estimated in the first half as growth in
Asia and Africa offset declines in Europe.

The quantity of lager sold increased 1 percent in the six months ended
Sept. 30, excluding the effect of acquisitions, London-based SABMiller
said today in a statement. SABMiller is among brewers that are seeking
growth in developing markets and through acquisitions to combat
sluggish consumer spending in Europe. Sales declined “marginally” in
Latin America and slid 5 percent in Europe, while gaining 10 percent
in Asia and 7 percent in Africa, the company said.

Results were helped by price increases, “some raw material cost
reductions” and “strengthening of key operating currencies against the
U.S. dollar,” SABMiller said.

Beer volume in Africa rose 11 percent including the effect of
Zimbabwe, whose results SABMiller reinstated in its reports following
the stabilization of the economy.

Civil engineering in Africa: the only way is up for young inventors The Guardian

Africa

Twenty-four-year-old Nigerian physics graduate Mubarak Muhammad
Abdullahi with the helicopter that he recently built.

Gabriel Nderitu is a 42-year-old IT specialist with no background in
aviation engineering, but ever since he was a boy, he wanted to fly.
Now he is close to finishing building his own twin-seater aircraft, a
feat made all the more remarkable by the fact that he's done so in the
backyard of his home in the outskirts of Nairobi, Kenya.So far, the
project has taken 16 months of his time and cost him 450,000 Kenyan
shillings (£3,500) from his savings. The plane has a 74in propeller
and a 40-litre Toyota engine and weighs 800kg. The strutted wing and
ailerons are skinned with aluminium sheets. To help with the welding
and the assembly, Nderitu hired five mechanics.

How did he know what to do? Nderitu spent six months researching the
subject online, downloading blueprints. Some parts he ordered from the
US. "It's a boyhood dream," he told Kenyan TV. "I just want to get it
out, whether it works or not. If it gets out of my mind then I can do
something else."

Such ingenuity is far from atypical in Africa. As the blog AfriGadget
points out, Nderitu is not the first African to try building his own
aircraft. Physics graduate Mubarak Muhammad Abdullahi, 24, from north
Nigeria, recently built a working helicopter using scrap aluminium and
parts from a Honda Civic, an old Toyota and a crashed Boeing 747. This
inventor had no formal training in aviation, either, but his
helicopter flew, if only ever seven feet off the ground.

There have been reports, too, of three Somali men constructing a
homemade chopper.

The AfriGadget site is filled with examples of similarly inspired
inventions: a customised bicycle with a dynamo that can charge a
mobile phone, for example, or a contraption to extract biogas from cow
dung. The idea is to showcase Africans "bending the little they have
to their will, using creativity to overcome life's challenges". The
site's founder, Erik Hersman, grew up in Kenya and Sudan and also
co-founded Ushahidi, a crowdsourcing tool that allowed Kenyans to
track the violence that followed the 2008 elections and which has
since been used in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gaza.

As for Gabriel Nderitu, there is no guarantee that his aircraft will
be allowed to fly, or that it is even capable of full flight. But that
little matters. "If a guy says 'I want to build an aircraft' it seems
like he's from the moon, or from somewhere," he told the Kenyan media.
"And if it happens, if it at least lifts off, even if it is three
feet, it shows that you have gone somewhere."

Producers set for profits as tea hits five-year peak

Commodities

Average prices at the Mombasa tea auction are at a five-year-high, new
data shows, signifying a good year for producers.A market report by
the African Tea Brokers Limited (ATB) shows the average weekly prices
stood at $2.49 per kilogram this month — the highest since 2005 when
the average was $1.47.Kenyan tea is particularly doing well at the
auction having fetched an average $2.74 per kilogram as of last
month.This marks an improvement from last year when supplies from
local farmers realised an average return of $2.72 per kilo and earned
growers hefty bonuses.Based on the latest price trend, local producers
are likely to realise another good run such as that witnessed last
year when drought conditions helped boost prices.

From the good price run over 2009 the Kenya Tea Development Agency
(KTDA) is, for example, expected to pay out a record Sh38.2 billion to
small-scale farmers this year, a 53 per cent rise over 2009’s payout.

“This year’s pay-out stands at Sh38.2 billion up from the Sh25 billion
paid out last year,” KTDA, that represents about 500,000 small-scale
farmers who produce an average 60 per cent of the country’s total
output, said in a statement.

In July, industry regulator Tea Board of Kenya (TBK) said the country
was on course to meet its 2010 tea output target of a 15 per cent
increase from 2009’s 315 million kilograms.

The board is banking on demand from the Indian and Chinese markets to
meet the targets.Good prices of Kenyan tea in the first eight months
of 2010 have boosted the industry’s performance, growing exporting
earnings 51 per cent on last year.Good rains for much of this year
have also brought optimism.

“It looks like it is going to be an interesting and exciting year for
Kenyan tea. Volumes are up, prices are reasonably firm,” TBK managing
director Sicily Kariuki said recently.TBK expects the 2010 full year
earnings to exceed the Sh70 billion mark, after jumping to Sh65
billion within the January-August window alone.

Listed Tea companies at the Nairobi Stock Exchange
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Sasini Tea, Kakuzi, Williamson and kapchorua Tea and Limuru Tea.

Private equity fund acquires major stake in Family Bank Business Daily

World Of Finance

Micro-lender Family Bank has offered for sale a 24.99 per cent stake
to a consortium of investors led by a Mauritius-based private equity
fund in a deal that promises to intensify the bruising battle for
control of Kenya’s banking business.The deal estimated to be worth
Sh1.2 billion will see AfricInvest - the private equity firm, and two
development finance institutions get a piece of the bank that is among
Kenya’s fastest growing financial institutions.

The two institutions are FMO of the Netherlands and Norway’s Norfund,
whose entry into the banking scene is being seen as representing the
ongoing transformation in Western approach to development financing in
Africa. The new investors—who have preference for investing in small
and medium enterprises—intend to exit the bank after five years with
the sale of their stake to the Kenyan public through the Nairobi Stock
Exchange (NSE).

Conclusions

They had been on a GO SHOP for sometime.

My Tweets from Mahmoud Janmohamed's Mindspeak Presentation

Information & Communication Technology

My Real Time Tweets during the Presentation

#mindspeak Serena we turned down Biden Serena Williams a wonderful
Guest www.rich.co.ke via mobile web
#mindspeak Serena The only real Kenya Multinational www.rich.co.ke
#mindspeak Serena Jan Mohamed world wide turnover $160m www.rich.co.ke
#mindspeak I expand in order to stop myself being run over Mahmud Jan
Mohamed Serena Hotels
#mindspeak Jan Mohamed #Africa Expansion Serena amount of Africa
Business stunning Looking at South and West Africa #Serena
#mindspeak Jan Mohamed talking about #technology $2m last 4 months via
Internet Peanuts before www.rich.co.ke
#mindspeak Serena Kabul hosted Security Council 1st time
#mindspeak Describing Terrorist attack and his reaction Kabul Serena
#mindspeak Jan Mohamed #Serena Encourage Messengers of Bad News
#mindspeak What did British Airways do after the Sleeper Seat ?
#mindspeak Jan Mohamed #Serena New Product Serena Collection
#mindspeak Start Up Rising Star Cash Cow Dead Dog or Rising Star
Westgate #Mindspeak #Nairobi Real Time Location www.rich.co.ke

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     4,011,600
total turnover     19,660,076
avg price     4.90 closing Price 4.90
high price     4.95
low price     4.90
last price     4.90

Conclusions

Safaricom was unchanged at 4.90 with a Supply overhang of about 10m
shares to clear at 5.00. The Half Year Results to be released in
November are key and Investors will looking for the Price War Impact
on the Voice Revenues versus The Trajectory of Acceleration in Data.
The Price at 4.90 has the 'Voice War' in it now.

TPS Serena was the most active share at the Nairobi Bourse today. TPS
Serena traded 11.075m shares [7.057% of the Equity of the Enterprise]
worth 648.746m. Serena was marked down limit which is 10% and closed
at 58.50. Serena trades on a Trailing PE of 16.25 and is the only
Listed Tourism share in the Region.This is a Material Change in the
Shareholder Register.

TPS Serena share price data www.rich.co.ke +67.061% 1 Year
http://bit.ly/5Ve4gj

EPS: 3.60
PE: 18.056

Kenya Airways closed 1.648% easier at 44.75 and traded 55,500 shares.

ScanGroup eased a shilling to close at 63.50 and traded 85,600 shares.

Nation closed lower at 163.00 and traded 8,500 shares.
Standard rallied 8.333% to close at 48.75 and traded 5,200 shares.

Access Kenya closed at 18.10 and traded 98,200 shares.

CMC Holdings traded 20 cents lower to close at 13.15 and traded 19,600 shares.
CarGen did not trade.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

COOP Bank was the 3rd most active Counter. COOP Bank rose 1.87% to
close at 19.10 and traded an 18.75-19.50 range and 1.213m shares worth
23.172m. COOP Bank has posted a 133.731% 1 Year Return and the 19.50
high Print matched its previous all time Intra Day high. COOP Bank
trades on a Trailing PE of 22.059 and Investors will be now looking
for the 3rd Quarter Earnings Release to confirm the Trajectory seen in
the 1st Half.

COOP Bank share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/26xEpC

EPS: 0.85
PE: 22.059

KCB was the 4th most actively traded at the Bourse. KCB was unchanged
at 22.75 and traded a 22.50-23.00 range and 983,500 shares. KCB trades
on a 14.773 Trailing PE and remains cheap to its Peers on that Metric.

KCB share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/bshUrU

EPS: 1.54
PE: 14.773

Equity Bank firmed 0.95% to close at 26.50 and traded a 26.50-27.00
range and traded 430,900 shares worth 11.504m. This is a 2 Year
Closing High and we have been here for some time now.
Barclays Bank was unchanged at 68.50 and traded 162,400 shares. 70.00
is a 2 Year Closing High and Resistance.
StanChart firmed 1.17% to close at 261.00 and traded 4,700 shares.

HFCK rallied 4.13% to close at 31.50 and traded a 30.25-32.25 range
and 218,700 shares worth 6.925m. HFCK has posted a 124.085% 1 Year
Return and this is a 27 Month Closing High. Investors have responded
forthrightly to the News that their 5b Bond was oversubscribed
allowing Scale Up.
Diamond Trust traded a 122.00-130.00 range and rose 1.66% to close at
122.00 a new Life Time Closing High. DTB was locked at 130.00 +8.33%
at the Close and traded just 3,900 shares with very little Visible on
the Sell side.

Diamond Trust Bank share price data www.rich.co.ke +88.966% 1 Year
http://bit.ly/4A8Khs

PE: 15.645

NIC rallied 2.04% to close at 50.00 and traded a 49.00-50.50 range and
81,000 shares. This is a 28 Month Closing high.
CFC StanBic eased 1.13% to close at 87.50 and traded 3,600 shares.
NBK was unchanged at 40.50 and traded 66,000 shares.

Centum rose 1.02% to close at 24.75 and traded 220,600 shares.

Kenya Re dipped 0.42% to close at 11.75 and traded an 11.70-11.85
range and 212,100 shares.
Jubilee rallied 1.53% to close at 199.00 and traded 2,500 shares.
PanAfric closed at 77.50 and traded 16,300 shares.

Olympia Capital closed at 7.35 and traded 14,500 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was the 2nd most active Counter after Serena. EABL firmed 0.51%
to close at 197.00 a Fresh 26 Month Closing High. EABL traded a
196.00-199.00 range and 176,500 shares worth 34.486m. EABL looks all
set to test 200.00 a Round Number and Resistance.

BAT was unchanged at 275.00 an all time Closing High. BAT traded
49,300 shares worth 13.606m.

Athi River Mining was unchanged at 174.00 and traded 89,200 shares
worth 15.609m. Pradeep indicated that Asian Cement Companies were
running the Slide Rule and further reports have been hitting the Wires
confirming the same. Todays Report put Portland in the Frame as well.
Bamburi Cement firmed 1.96% to close at 208.00 and traded 38,500 shares.
Portland traded 500 shares at 115.00 -3.36%.

KenGen rallied 3.0769% to close at 16.75 and traded a 16.50-17.00
range and 199,200 shares. Investors badly overeacted last week and we
are now taking back some of that overeaction.
KPLC rose a shilling to close at 232.00 and traded 12,700 shares.
Cables closed firmer at 18.35 and traded 68,500 shares.

Mumias Sugar retreated 1.72% to close at 11.45 and traded an
11.05-11.65 and 828,100 shares. The Share has traded heavy since the
Results and has retreated 21.0344% since that Date.

KenolKobil was unchanged at 9.95 and traded 361,600 shares.
Total improved 25 cents to close at 31.25 and traded 8,300 shares.

Crown Berger was unchanged at 36.00 and traded 1,300 shares.
Carbacid traded 100 shares at 170.00 +4.29%.
BOC Gases did not trade.
Eveready fell 2.66% to close at 3.65 and traded 83,900 shares.
Sameer closed at 8.25 -0.6% and traded 48,500 shares.
Unga closed better at 12.85 and traded 21,100 shares.