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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 09th of November 2010

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Star E-Float QE2 The Titanic

What is #Mindspeak ?

Martin O-O's Visual Presentation KCB at  #Mindspeak is here

Have you seen Jeff Koinange's #Mindspeak Session

Its outrageously Good.

Part 1 Jeff and Oprah

Part 2 Mend A Man called Jomo

-> Nigeria’s Rebel Group MEND Claims Responsibility for Afren Attack Bloomberg

Nigeria’s main rebel group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the
Niger Delta, is responsible for an attack on Afren Plc’s Okoro field
on Nov. 7 in which five foreigners were seized from an oil rig, Jomo
Gbomo, a spokesman for the group known as MEND, said in an e-mailed
statement today.

Macro Thoughts

Gold has now cleared my Objective which was $1,400.00.

Home Thoughts

I thoroughly enjoyed myself in Dubai and I am grateful to My Brother
Samir and His Wife Mitali for hosting me. I am also grateful to
Chairman and Engineer Mohamed Al Ballad and his entire Team for
spending time with me and I happen to believe its a Fit but await
further direction. It was really quite enjoyable to be in a 1st World
Landscape and make no mistake it is in Dubai. The 'irrational
Exuberance' is over for Dubai but the underlying dynamics remain
powerful Muscular and long term. I found my favourite Guerlain
Aftershave in Harvey Nichols, I bought two Hermes Ties and a Box of
Monte Cristo Torpedoes.

My Final Meetings were in Mina A Salam and I stayed on and had Dinner
overlooking the Pool before going to the Airport and quite enjoyed

My View at Dinner last Night

On My way back, This Fellow called Stanley is sitting next tome and
about an hour before we land He starts singing Hymns and says

'Thats The 1st Time I have seen the Sunshine in 6 Months. I have been
in Jail. My Friend, You have not seen Dubai until You have seen the

I am behind the Curve today and Thats No Place for an Interest Rate
Trader to be so I will be brief today.

read more

Fed Global Backlash Grows WSJ
World Of Finance

Global controversy mounted over the Federal Reserve's decision to pump
billions of dollars into the U.S. economy, with President Barack Obama
defending the move as China, Russia and the euro zone added to a
chorus of criticism.Mr. Obama returned fire in the growing
confrontation over trade and currencies Monday in a joint news
conference with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, taking the
unusual step of publicly backing the Fed's decision to buy $600
billion in U.S. Treasury bonds—a move that has come under withering
international criticism for weakening the U.S. dollar.

On Monday, China's Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said the U.S.
isn't living up to its responsibility as an issuer of a global reserve
currency. The Fed's move doesn't "take into account the effect of this
excessive liquidity on emerging-market economies," he said.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble lashed out at U.S. pressure
on Berlin to rein in the country's surging exports, telling Der
Spiegel magazine, "The American growth model...is stuck in a deep

Mr. Obama enlisted an ally in Mr. Singh, an economist whose country is
wielding increasing influence at the G-20. Responding to Mr.
Schäuble's criticism of the Fed, the prime minister said, "Anything
that stimulates the underlying growth impulses of entrepreneurship in
the United States would help the cause of global prosperity."


The Star E-Float QE2 The Titanic

India and Japan Loyal Allies of the US.

read more

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3859
Pound 1.6103
Yen 80.87
Aussie 1.0115
Rand 6.8515
India Rupee 44.375

“The euro was sold off early in the Asian session as concerns about
debt in the European periphery continue to weigh on markets,” said
currency strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman.


Euro backs and fills on Periphery Worries.

read more

Irving Penn: Archaeology Photo Booth New Yorker

In the late seventies and early eighties, while doing ravishing
fashion photography for Vogue magazine, Penn embarked on a series of
still-lifes of ordinary found objects, bones, and skulls. Originally
these pictures were not well received, but now they dazzle us with
their precision and visual poetry. When I saw them recently at
Pace/MacGill Gallery, I marvelled at how delicately balanced each
setup was and wondered how he possibly could have kept them from
collapsing. In fact, collapse they did at times, but the ingenious Mr.
Penn photographed them as they tumbled and titled the picture
“Collapse.” Yes, the bones remind me of my mortality, but I found a
subtle wit at work as well, in both the titles and images. Even the
skulls were inspiring.

The Fallen Pitcher

read more

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Crude Oil    86.68    -0.38   
Natural Gas, Jan    4.370    0.091   
Gold, Dec.    1409.3    6.1   
Copper (¢), Dec    399.20    3.55   
Coffee    210.90    2.80    -> Coffee has pushed on
Corn (¢), Mar.    605.75    6.50   
Lean Hogs    67.275    0.125   
Live Cattle    98.425    0.025   
Soybeans (¢), Jan.    1285.0    10.2   
Sugar    32.35    0.47    Thats a 30+ Year High
Wheat (¢)    739.8    3.5   
Lumber, Jan.    275.7    2.7  

read more

Live Gold 24 Hour Spot Quote KITCO 1409.60

I think its very unlikely that it can retrace much below 1,400 now.

read more

Warhol’s $63 Million Portrait of Elizabeth Taylor Stuns Dealers Bloomberg

Andy Warhol’s blotchy 1962 black-and- white painting of serially
married movie star Elizabeth Taylor sold for $63.4 million last night
at Phillips de Pury & Co. in New York, the second-highest price for
the artist at auction.

“Two people wanted it -- as simple as that,” said New York dealer
Christophe Van de Weghe. “What a great way to kick off the week.”

read more

PTA Bank Sells $300 Million Worth of Eurobonds Bloomberg
World Of Finance

Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank, the Kenyan
lender known as PTA Bank, sold $300 million-worth of Eurobonds, CFC
Stanbic Bank Ltd., the arranger of the transaction said.PTA Bank,
which has been rated BB by Fitch Ratings and Ba1 by Moody’s Investors
Service, sold bonds that mature on Jan. 9, 2016, with the first coupon
being paid July 9, 2011, at the rate of 6.875 percent, CFC said in an
e-mailed statement today. The re-offer yield is 7.125 percent, CFC
said. The sale attracted $638 million worth of bids and is part of $1
billion bond sale program, CFC said

“This is an affirmation that political risk is taking a back seat and
sets the stage for new sovereign issues in East and Central Africa,”
CFC said.

In July 2005 PTA Bank sold seven-year bonds worth 800 million Kenyan
shillings ($9.9 million) and in October 2007 it sold seven-year bonds
worth 1 billion shillings. Both of those issues, which are traded on
the Nairobi Stock Exchange, have a coupon rate of 1 percent above the
91-day treasury bill rate, according to data from the Kenyan bourse.

Standard Bank Group Ltd., which is based in Johannesburg, and
London-based HSBC Holdings Plc acted as book runners for the Eurobond
sale, CFC said.


Thats a Break Out Capital Raising Exercise right there.

read more

Credit in Kenya up 6 pct in third quarter Reuters
Kenyan Economy

Kenya's total loans and advances by the banking sector rose 6 percent
to 878.8 billion shillings ($10.96 billion) in the third quarter, the
Central Bank of Kenya said on Tuesday.
Personal loans increased by the biggest margin, going up 12.8 billion
shillings, compared with the previous quarter.The central bank has
aggressively cut its key policy rate in the last couple of years with
the view to lowering commercial lending rates.

Here are some other highlights from the central bank's banking sector
quarterly review: * Non-performing loans declined marginally by 0.5
percent to 61.2 billion shillings.

* Total assets grew 5.5 percent at 1.55 trillion shillings.

* Customers' deposits stood at 1.27 trillion shillings, up 4.2 percent.

* Pretax profits were up 2.2 percent to 18.3 billion shillings.

* Banks had an average liquidity ratio of 46.7 percent in the third
quarter, compared with a minimum statutory limit of 20 percent.

* The central bank said it had approved nearly 6,000 banking agents,
66 percent of them in rural areas.

read more

Telkom Kenya raises the bar in mobile banking market Business Daily
Information & Communication Technology

Telkom Kenya on Monday joined the bruising battle for control of
mobile money with the launch of a product that will allow users to
operate bank accounts in their cell phones – taking on both
Safaricom’s M-Pesa service and M-Kesho, the joint initiative of
Safaricom and Equity Bank.

The new service, which also has Equity Bank as a partner, deepens the
shift by telecoms operators away from the voice market that has been
the key revenue earner in favour of data services where it faces stiff
challenge from Safaricom’s M-Pesa, Zain’s Zap and Essar Telecom’s Yu

Telkom’s Orange’s mobile money product dubbed Iko Pesa, allows users
to manage their bank accounts from the mobile handsets. It enables
consumers to make interbank cash transfers, payment of bills and even
application for loans of up to Sh1 million.It also comes with a
phonebook access technology that allows subscribers to send money to
any person whose contacts are on their SIM card thus eliminating the
risks of funds being transferred to unintended recipients.

Safaricom last month indicated that it will soon migrate its M-Pesa
service to a similar platform whose rollout is expected early next

Central Bank of Kenya statistics indicates that daily mobile cash
transfers have risen to Sh3 billion making it an important player in
the economy.

As at August 30 this year, M-Pesa which is the leading money transfer
service had 12.6 million customers and 20,000 agents and generated
18.7 per cent of its total revenue from M-pesa/sms and data

read more

N.S.E Today

The NSE20 closed 41.53 points lower at 4626.47 and that is just a
whisker under a 2% retracement from the recent 2010 High just above
The NASI was down 0.38 points to close at 101.88.
Market Cap was 1.215351 Trillion versus 1.220032 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 751.427m versus 383.981m last time around.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kakuzi eased 1.604% to close at 92.00 and traded 5,900 shares. Kakuzi
has posted a 193.186% 1 Year Return and is one of the Outliers at the
NSE. The Trailing PE is less than 6.00 and hence there is further
Rea Vipingo traded 100 shares at 18.50 and unchanged.
Sasini Tea closed at 13.95 and traded 40,500 shares.
Eaagads fell limit to close at 64.00 and traded 1,7

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


shares volume     63,059,000
total turnover     299,433,984
avg price     4.75 CLOSING PRICE 4.75 +1.06%
high price     4.80
low price     4.60
last price     4.70

Comments to Richard at Reuters yesterday

"It's got so much in the price right now so I expect some kind of
bounce on Wednesday as I think the market will be pleased by its data
(results) curve," said independent analyst Aly Khan Satchu.
Safaricom, which has seen its call revenues crimped since August when
a fierce price war broke out in the telecoms sector,
traded up 1.0 percent at 4.70 shillings. It had been trading at over 6
shillings before its main rival, Zain, slashed its calling tariffs by

"It's trading at a price earnings ratio of around 12-1/2 compared to
the NSE average of around 15-16," Satchu said.


Tomorrow 330 is half Year Results and I will be there so If You want
to follow the Results in Real Time please follow me via Twitter
@alykhansatchu . This was a very heavy session with 63.055m shares
worth 299.433m trading which is the highest Volume Session of the last
5 months. Clearly, Voice Volume increases are lagging the Price
Blitzkrieg but I think Investors have overreacted. The Price War broke
out in August and therefore, I expect these Results to hold up better
than where the Market has placed what are low Expectations and
therefore, I do not see the Price retreating from here.

Safaricom share price data www.rich.co.ke

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:          4.70
Total Shares Issued:          20,191,000
Market Capitalization:        1M
EPS:            0.38
PE:                12.368

Kenya Airways drifted 0.568% lower to close at 43.75 and traded 73,900
shares. Kenya Airways reported 1st Half Results +66% ahead of the same
Period the previous Year but has been unable to sustain a Bounce for

Access Kenya closed 2.35% lower at 16.60 and traded 130,100 shares.
Access Kenya is down 15.557% over 12 months and is 3.75% off its 12
Month low of 16.00.

CMC Holdings rose 1.5686% to close at 12.95 and traded 272,100 shares.
CarGen did not trade.

ScanGroup was unchanged at 69.50 and traded 67,200 shares.

TPS Serena retreated 2.158% to close at 68.00 and traded 54,800 shares.

Nation traded 2,500 shares and closed a shilling better at 168.00.
Standard was marked down 4.56% to close at 47.00 and traded 400 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

CFC StanBic was the 2nd most active Counter after Safaricom. CFC
StanBic rallied 2.339% to close at 87.50 and traded a chunky Block of
942,500 shares worth 82.829m. CFC StanBic is +74.619% over 12 months
and up more than 100% from just below 40.00 Lows 1st Quarter This
Year. The Bank's Management are unlocking value via a seperate Listing
of the Insurance Assets and one senses the Kenya Franchise is
beginning to fire on more Cylinders and that we have now moved through
the Merger Noise. The $300m PTA Bond confirmed the Advantage of the

COOP Bank traded 4th at the Bourse. COOP Bank firmed 1.016% to 19.95
COOP Bank traded a 19.85-20.25 range and 2.591m shares worth 51.808m.
COOP Bank has posted a 136.207% 1 Year Return and has hit a series of
New All Time Closing Highs. The Record High was 21.5 on 26th October.
Equity Bank traded 6th at the Bourse. Equity Bank was unchanged at
26.50 and traded a 26.25-26.75 range and 1.226m shares worth 32.543.
The Share Price has stalled for now just below 27.00 which was a
recent 27 Month High.
KCB eased 1.12% to close at 22.00 and traded a 22.00-22.50 range and
751,800 shares worth 16.622m. KCB trades at a Forward of under 9.00
and hence looks the best risk adjusted Purchase to me.
Barclays Bank eased 0.73% to close at 68.00 and traded light with
29,000 shares traded.
StanChart eased back 1.8125% to close at 270.00 and traded 6,500 shares.

DTB eased 1.54% to close at 128.00 and traded a 128.00-134.00 range
and 96,500 shares worth 12.412m.
HFCK closed at 27.00 +0.93% and traded 50,600 shares.
NBK was unchanged at 41.25 and traded 15,500 shares.
NIC rallied 2.074% to close at 49.00 and traded 140,000 shares worth 6.893m.

Centum closed at 23.00 -1.08% and traded 163,500 shares.

Kenya Re eased 5 cents to close at 11.50 and traded 139,800 shares.
Jubilee firmed 0.5% to close at 200.00 and traded 1,500 shares.
Jubilee has posted a 105.828% return over 1 Year  This is a 35 Month
closing High.
PanAfric did not trade.

Olympia Capital did not trade.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Bamburi Cement traded 5th closing at 205.00 and -1.44%. Bamburi Cement
traded 191,300 shares worth 39.216m.
Athi River Mining retreated 3.41% to close at 170.00 and traded 36,700
shares. The Tape is indicating it might well be in Play and Pradeep
hardly disavowed Anyone of that Notion in an Interview he gave in
Washington last Month.
Portland did not trade.

Mumias Sugar retreated a further 3.43% to close at 9.85 and has been
in a complete Tailspin since peaking at 15.50 5th August 2010. Mumias
Sugar has fallen 36.451% since August 5 and has diverged completely
from the underlying Raw Sugar Price which was last above a 30 Year
High. Mumias Sugar traded 1.507m shares.

KenolKobil eased 0.917% to close at 10.80 and traded a 10.75-10.95
range and 7.384m shares. KenolKobil has posted a 132.168% 1 Year
Return and has rallied sharply post the Announcement of the Ceasefire.
Total rose 0.826% to close at 30.50 and traded 29,000 shares.

KPLC traded 2.67% lower to close at 218.00 and traded 125,700 shares.
KenGen traded 145,000 shares and closed at 17.30.
Cables traded 22,500 shares and closed at 18.00.

EABL was unchanged at 212.00 and traded 26,600 shares. 216.00 is
EABL's all time High and will be threatened in due course.

BAT fell 5% to close at 285.00 on 800 shares.

Carbacid closed 3.44% higher at 150.00 and traded 21,600 shares.
BOC Kenya did not trade.
Crown Berger traded 10,500 shares and closed at 35.00.
Eveready traded 61,000 shares and closed at 3.60.
Sameer traded 87,000 shares and closed at 7.95.
Unga traded 6,900 shares and closed at 12.25.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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November 2010

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