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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 05th of November 2010
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

I have a Pow Vow at the World Bank [They have this Tri Screen that
hooks up Nairobi Washington and other Places in between] this
Afternoon so Please accept this Earlier Missive ex Nairobi Stock
Exchange. I am in Dubai through Monday Night and ask for your
indulgence Monday as well.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

What is #Mindspeak ?
http://bit.ly/9mhe39

Martin O-O's Visual Presentation KCB at  #Mindspeak is here
http://bit.ly/b8oKik

The Video is being edited as we speak

Have you seen Jeff Koinange's #Mindspeak Session
http://bit.ly/1mPS6v

Its outrageously Good.

Part 1 Jeff and Oprah
http://bit.ly/ccmBmx

Part 2 Mend A Man called Jomo
http://bit.ly/9xBVqD

Macro Thoughts

The Tape is your Telescope.

Home Thoughts

I went yesterday to a Party thrown by Paul Kavuma and Binyamin
Johannes of Catalyst. Paul and I were at Kenton together. I went to
Kenton 36 years ago and in fact, when I returned 4 Years ago, got
entirely lost in Kileleshwa trying to find it. I took My Office at
Purshottam Place about 3 Years ago. And I sometimes feel like a Baby
that does not want to leave because People have come and gone but I
have a lovely View of the City and it makes me believe that The World
is one of Infinite Possibilities and I am old enough now to Know thats
a mighty good Vibe for me to be surfing during My Working Day. Because
I can get very stressy and then Nishet scoots and leaves me a message
saying She is at the Hairdresser.

I have gone off on a Tangent entirely but the Point is I met Paul
again all these years later. Then He Moved into the Office four down
from me on the 8th Floor. One day, He knocked on my door and said I
have left Actis and I am setting up on my own. The Wife's Face fell
and I could see her thinking Whats with these Men?

And yesterday It was a wonderful Party and especially to have seen his
Journey come to Fruition. Well Done.

The Dessert Table at the Norfolk yesterday
http://www.twitpic.com/33zpga

And It was a Pleasure to meet so Many People whom I am adding to this
Missive. I met the Fellow from Proparco and said

'So What % of TPS Serena did you buy? And Did You get the 58.50s?'

He looked at me.

'I said I am a Data Vendor I study the Information Stream.'

And I thoroughly enjoyed myself and decided to walk a little through
the City. I was waiting for my transport outside the Stanley and There
I met Dr. Kipchoge Keino and He was a Hero of Mine. Him and Ben
Jipcho.

And I thought to myself it took 4 Years to get into the Spot and now
Its that Moment

That Norman Mailer describes here YouTube
http://bit.ly/9RsVzD

read more


THE ROVING EYE Sic transit gloria Obama Pepe Escobar Asia Times
Law & Politics

The heart of the (sorry) matter is that Obama and the Democrats did
not even strive to meet the great expectations awakened by the 2008
"Change we can believe in" collective rapture. They sowed the seeds of
their own doom instead. No wonder they were deserted en masse by young
people, ethnic minorities, pacifists and environmentalists while at
the same time masses of enraged centrists, moderates and independents
sought refuge in the right. Add to it the electorate's gullibility in
its manipulation by corporate media.

The verdict is out on whether Obama 2.0 will be your typical,
dialogue-averse, hardcore Washington gridlock or, as Obama insisted in
his White House press conference this Wednesday, a move further to the
right towards a compromise with the uncompromising Republicans. On
both options, in an US increasingly configured by corporate power as a
neo-feudal plutocracy, what passes for "democracy" will be the loser.

read more


The thought that you can create a prosperous economy by inflating is an #illusion in my judgment #Volcker
World Of Finance


Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker says the U.S. central
bank's plan to buy hundreds of billions of dollars in government bonds
probably won't do much to boost the economic recovery.The Fed
announced Wednesday that it would purchase $600 billion in Treasurys,
aiming to lower long-term interest rates in an effort to spur spending
and ultimately lower the U.S. unemployment rate, currently at 9.6
percent. The move comes on the heels of previous purchases of $1.7
trillion in mortgage and Treasury bonds.

Volcker told a business audience in Seoul that the Fed's bond plan is
obviously an attempt to spur the U.S. economy but "is not the kind of
action that's likely to change the general picture that I've described
as slow and labored recovery over a period of time."

Volcker served as Fed chief from 1979 until 1987 under presidents
Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan and is currently chairman of President
Barack Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. He also warned that
the U.S. won't find its way out of the economic doldrums through
over-stimulation.

"The thought that you can create a prosperous economy by inflating is
an illusion, in my judgment," he told reporters after his speech. "And
we should never forget that. I thought we'd learned that lesson and I
hope we continue to learn that lesson."

"The influence of this kind of action on longer term interest rates,
in particular, is ambiguous because the immediate impact of buying
bonds ought to be to drive bond prices up and interest rates down," he
said. "But if people get concerned about longer run inflationary
impacts, the effects go in the other direction."

Conclusions

It was entirely inimical to the US National Interest that Volcker did
not sit in Bernanke's shoes.

Paul Volcker Google Image Search
http://bit.ly/dCM9ud



read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.4199
Pound 1.6262
Yen 80.77
Aussie 1.0148
Rand 6.762
India Rupee 43.88
Brazil Real 1.6695

“The euro is rising by default,” said Hans Redeker, global head of
foreign exchange at BNP Paribas. “The market was expecting $500
billion in quantitative easing and it got $600 billion.”  -> As I said
$500b was the Tolerance Bar.

The euro bought $1.4209 up from $1.4132 late Wednesday. Earlier it
touched as high as $1.4282 for a 1% gain for the day.

The dollar index  which measures the greenback against a basket of six
major currencies, slipped to 75.905, the lowest since December 2009,
from 76.347 in late North American trading Wednesday.

The specter of a cheap dollar flooding the global markets also lent
support to emerging-markets currencies.

Conclusions

I expect more Follow Through Dollar Weakness.

Euro versus Dollar Chart INO 3 Month Chart 1.4191 Last
http://bit.ly/bxIoJI

read more


World Equity Markets at a glance
World Of Finance

The Dow Industrials jumped 219.71 points, or 1.96% to 11434.84. The
Nasdaq Composite gained 37.07 points, or 1.46% to 2577.34. The S&P 500
added 23.10 points, or 1.93% to 1221.06.

Dow Jones Industrial Average to levels last seen before Lehman
Brothers collapsed two years ago.


read more


Herm├Ęs in the Crosshairs WSJ
Misc.

The founding dynasty behind French fashion brand Hermès has stuck
together for nearly two centuries. That unity is now being tested by
the luxury goods world's most aggressive entrepreneur: Bernard
Arnault.

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the world's biggest luxury goods
firm which is managed and majority-owned by Mr. Arnault, announced
last month that it had accumulated a 17% stake in Hermès
International.

To most observers, Mr. Arnault's move—which he describes as friendly,
but Hermès management deems "anything but friendly"—is just the first
step in what could eventually be a battle for full control of the
company.

Mr. Arnault is particularly adept at seizing family companies. LVMH
took a minority stake in perfume company Guerlain in the 1980s, and
then acquired it outright in 1994 amid disagreements in the Guerlain
family. [Guerlain makes the best Mens Perfumes, I venture].

The company is registered as a "societe en commandite par actions," or
limited partnership, an unusual structure that gives managing partners
veto power on most decisions made by shareholders. The holding company
that controls Hermès, Emile Hermès SARL, is open only to direct
descendents of the founders.

Hermès, which had sales of €1.91 billion in 2009, for now is putting
its faith in both the structure of its holding company and family
loyalty. . "The arrival [of LVMH] is anything but friendly," Mr.
Thomas said in an interview earlier this week with France's Le Figaro
newspaper. In the same interview,Mr. Puech noted that because of the
limited partnership structure of Hermès, the Emile Hermès holding
company would retain control over all key decisions even if only one
Hermès family member were left holding shares.Mr. Albaladejo is
confident that Hermès will stay in family hands, even among the 170
members of the seventh generation.

"From the time the descendants are small, they are immersed in the
spirit of Hermès," he said in the interview. "It's part of their
lives."

Conclusions

My Money is on Arnault having Mr. Albaladejo for Breakfast.

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

read more



Gold silver surge as Fed move punishes dollar Marketwatch [Predictably]
Commodities

Gold futures surged to a record close Thursday after investors used
the U.S. Federal Reserve’s new $600 billion quantitative-easing
program as a fresh reason to sell the U.S. dollar.December gold surged
$45.5, or 3.4%, to $1,383.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile
Exchange, its biggest one-day gain since March 19, 2009, according to
FactSet Research. Silver  on Thursday rallied $1.61, or 6.6%, to
$26.04 an ounce.Copper gained 13 cents, or 3.4%, to $3.91 a
pound.Platinum and palladium also made steep advances.

Conclusions

QE2 was a green light to buy everything commodities and sell the dollar.

Live 24 Hour Spot Gold Price 1388.90 last
http://bit.ly/aGn67A

Headed well over 1400.00

read more



Soft Commodities at a Glance INO
Commodities

Coffee +4.34%
Cotton +2.51%
Sugar +4.76%

Sugar March 2011 INO 31.66 +1.51 (+4.76%)
http://bit.ly/9GRGT6

Last Price    31.66
Open Int.    250413
Contract High    31.81
Contract Low    11.9
First Delivery    2011-05-15
Contract High Date    2010-11-04
Expiration    2011-02-28

Conclusions

Record 30 Year + Highs

Cotton December 2010 INO 144.40 +3.95 (+2.83%)
http://bit.ly/aUBV3p

Last Price    144.40
Open Int.    100993
Contract High    140.52
Contract Low    53.87
First Delivery    2010-12-21
Contract High Date    2010-11-04
Contract Low Date    2009-03-09
Expiration    2010-12-07

Conclusions

Higher Still

read more


"Nu de dos, 4 etat," a 1930 sculpture by Henri Matisse, sold for $48.8 million. Photographer: Tom Starkweather/Bloomberg
Misc.

Henri Matisse’s life-size bronze of a woman’s back sold for $48.8
million, an auction record for the artist, as Christie’s
International’s New York Impressionist and modern art sale sustained a
recovery from last year’s recession.

The Matisse, from an edition of 10, was conceived in 1930 and cast in
1978, 24 years after the artist’s death. Dealer Larry Gagosian bought
it for an unnamed client.

Henry Kravis was one of yesterday’s top sellers. Hours after the
buyout firm he co-founded reported a 61 percent drop in quarterly
profit, Kravis sold $50 million of art, people familiar with the
transactions said. Kravis parted with four works, including a 1913
cubist Juan Gris painting of a fragmented violin and guitar. The
canvas sold for a record auction price of $28.6 million to an
anonymous European collector.

read more


Asian Buyers Battle for $25 Million Vase as Chinese Prices Rise Bloomberg
Misc.

1. A vase made in the imperial palace, Beijing, during the reign of
the Emperor Yongzheng. Thought to be the sole survivor of a group of
porcelains from the period decorated in purple, it is priced at $25
million in an exhibition of Chinese masterworks to celebrate the 50th
anniversary of the London-based dealers Eskenazi Ltd. Photographer:
Mike Bruce/Eskenazi Ltd. via Bloomberg

2. A white jade seal used by the Emperor Qianlong It was used to make
impressions in the corners of his artworks. Carved with the
inscription ``Self-Strengthening Never Ceases,'' it is expected to
fetch between 2 million pounds and 3 million pounds at the Nov. 11
auction of Chinese art held by Bonhams during the Asian Art in London
event. Source: Bonhams via Bloomberg

read more


Tanzania Security Services Deny Rigging of Election Bloomberg
Law & Politics

Tanzania’s Intelligence and Security Service rejected allegations by
an opposition leader that results from the Oct. 31 election were
rigged.

Chadema, the party led by presidential candidate Wilbrod Slaa, said
yesterday that results announced by the National Electoral Commission
were different from those released at polling stations. Slaa said
security agents had tampered with both the results and the number of
votes cast, Agence France- Presse reported yesterday.

“The department is not involved in whatsoever has been stated by the
Chadema presidential aspirant, nor will it be used by anyone for
personal gain,” Jacky Zoka, deputy director- general of the service,
told reporters today in Dar es Salaam, the commercial capital.

President Jakaya Kikwete won the most votes in 159 of 183
constituencies counted so far, the electoral commission said today.

Ibrahim Lipumba of the Civic United Front has the largest share of
votes in 21 constituencies, while Slaa has the most votes in the three
other constituencies, the commission said in an e-mailed statement.
Tanzania has 239 constituencies.

read more


Dollar versus Rand INO 3 Month Chart 6.8057 Last
World Currencies

Looking for 6.61 - And It was an excellent Buy above 7.00 was it not?

read more


The Millennium Villages project: could the development 'wonk war' go nuclear? The Guardian
Africa

One of the highest-profile development projects of the last decade has
been the Millennium Villages project. The idea was to show in villages
across sub-Saharan Africa how communities could be transformed by aid
and that it was possible to achieve the millennium development goals
(MDGs). It was a brave, bold attempt to prove aid could work, and that
the MDGs were achievable at a time when there was increasing cynicism.
Now the project is sparking a bitter debate among American development
experts. Duncan Green, head of research for Oxfam in Great Britain,
called it a "wonk war" after the publication of a highly critical
paper on the project by the influential US thinktank, the Centre for
Global Development.

Given the profile of the Millennium Villages chief advocate, Jeff
Sachs, favourite economist to Bono and Geldof, and not a man to take
criticism lightly, this wonk war could go nuclear.

To give a bit of background. The project design was reviving
integrated development – tackling, health, education, livelihoods, and
environment – all in the same place. Around 13 projects are up and
running in countries such as Mali, Kenya and Uganda. The Millennium
Villages were quite similar to the Guardian's Katine project in
Uganda.

Both initiatives had their critics from the start; they argued that
integrated development had been tried in the 1970s and 1980s and had
been shown not to work very well. Model villages of all kinds
everywhere have always had an appeal to donors; at its crudest, they
often look good. You can tidy up a place by concentrating resources.
There's stuff to see. But the reality is that they have not proved
sustainable; you can't create oases of prosperity in a sea of poverty.
Sachs, however, weathered the criticism, and managed to raise
considerable funding. I was intrigued and in 2009 I visited the
village of Ruhiira in west Uganda.

Until now, evaluations have been cautiously positive, such as this one
by (the Overseas Development Institute (pdf). Now, Michael Clemens,
one of the authors of the paper, is forthright: "The paper
deliberately makes no conclusion about the wisdom or effectiveness of
the intervention itself, except for the modest claim that the
intervention shouldn't be massively scaled up until its effects have
been reliably estimated. To me that's uncontroversial; Africans have
urgent needs, but they have urgent needs for things that work, and
many of them have been disappointed by well-intended outsiders in the
past.' Ouch. In the polite world of development wonkery, this counts
as a pretty tough snub.

Clemens criticises the midterm evaluation of the project published in
June 2010 for claiming credit for positive trends which were happening
in other districts without the project. In particular, he points out
what anyone visiting Africa notices – mobile phone ownership is
growing exponentially – so it seems odd to claim, as the midterm
evaluation does, that this increase, seen in the Millennium villages
as elsewhere, is an 'impact' of the project. Clemens argues that the
project is not being rigorously evaluated, so we can't really know
what it is achieving. And he proposes a new method of evaluation.

So far, so good. No harm in a bit of healthy debate. But the World
Bank was supposed to host a public seminar evaluating the Millennium
Villages with both Clemens and Sachs last week, and this was
unexpectedly postponed.

Sachs has put up a testy and detailed response on his site accusing
Clemens and his co-author Gabriel Demombynes of "basic
misunderstandings". Now Philanthropy Action has put up an online
petition asking for a public discussion, as planned.

Why the drama? Well, a lot of money has been poured into the
Millennium Villages project. Sachs has staked his reputation on the
project and on scaling it up. He is a powerful man with excellent
contacts on both sides of the Atlantic – he got George Osborne when in
opposition to visit one of his Millennium Villages in Uganda.

The new coalition government has been very interested in this project
as a new model of aid. So Sachs is defending his baby and its future.

read more


A dhow in the Bazaruto archipelago off Mozambique. Photograph: Gary Cook/Alamy The Guardian
Africa

Norman Mailer wanted "a stick of the finest marijuana", John Major the
Oval cricket ground, Arthur Rubinstein a revolver, Simon Cowell a
mirror and, last week, Nick Clegg a stash of cigarettes.When guests on
BBC Radio 4's Desert Island Discs are asked what luxury item would
pass their time as a castaway, they miss the obvious thing.Me, I would
take a telescope. I know this because I've just been to some desert
islands in the Bazaruto archipelago off Mozambique. And at night, the
better than high-definition, 3D Imax planetarium display evoked
Shakespeare's "majestical roof fretted with golden fire". I could see
gleaming constellations, coruscating planets and a meteoroid streaking
across the Earth's atmosphere – a shooting star.Such clarity, away
from urban light pollution, came one night on Benguerra island, a
10-minute flight from the Mozambican coast. I was here at the
invitation of Benguerra Lodge, set up by Zimbabweans 20 years ago as
Mozambique limped out of revolution and civil war. Back then the
archipelago was a new frontier for tourism, and even today there are
still only five lodges on Benguerra and its bigger neighbour,
Bazaruto.

read more


Kenya Airways reports 1st Half 2010 + 66.97% PAT here share Data et al here www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          43.25
Total Shares Issued:          461,615,488
Market Capitalization:        19,965M
EPS:            4.40
PE:                9.830

6 Months to 30.09 2010 versus 30.09.2009
Passenger 36.739b versus 30.045b = +22.27991%
Cargo and Mail 3.039b versus 2.595b = +17.109%
Total Revenue 41.214b versus 33.488b = +23.0709%
Total expenses 38.834b versus 33.326b = +16.527%
Profit Before Tax 2.051b versus 1.229b = +66.88%
PAT 1.436b versus 0.86b =  +66.976%
EPS 3.11 versus 1.86 = +67.204%
Cash Flow Hedges -1.286b
ASK increased 3%
RPK grew by 9.3%

Conclusions

These are Strong 1st Half Results and if the Run Rate can be
maintained We are looking at a Forward PE of 7.33 which is very inexpensive.

read more


Nakumatt buys Ugandan retail chain Nation
Retail & Manufacturing


Nakumatt Holdings has acquired three branches of a Kampala-based
retail chain with a heavy presence in the suburbs, raising the ante in
the race for shoppers in the bustling Ugandan capital.

Kenya’s leading supermarket chain recently snapped Payless
Supermarket’s three branches in Bugoloobi, Bukoto and Kabalagala, in a
transaction valued at $650,000 (Sh52 million).

“We bought them (Payless Supermarket) out,” Mr Joshua Ng’ang’a, the
Nakumatt Uganda branch manager, told the New Vision newspaper of
Uganda. “Stores formerly occupied by Payless will be operating under
our management in a few days. Right now we are making infrastructural
improvements,” he said.

Conclusions

Wal-Mart could lead corporate America into Africa Christian Science
http://bit.ly/9ASLGt

Wal-Mart has announced that it is prepared to pay approximately $4.2
billion for Massmart Holdings. Massmart Holdings is a
Johannesburg-headquartered chain of discount superstores with a grand
total of 290 stores in 13 African countries under brand names such as
Makro, Game, and Builders Warehouse. Massmart stores can be found as
far away as Ghana and Nigeria and there are stores even in President
Mugabe's Zimbabwe.

Massmart would serve as "a fantastic entry point to a broader part of
the continent," said Andy Bond, a former CEO of Asda and the man
apparently spearheading the purchase. This acquisition, if completed,
will be the biggest acquisition undertaken by Wal-Mart in 10 years –
and of all places, it’s in Africa. For markets, this could be a game
changer, and I venture there are many computer screens in trading
floors around the world tracking this transaction very closely.

For quite some time, I have felt that corporate America was missing
the Africa story

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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