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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 17th of November 2010
 
Afternoon
Africa

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

I was kindly invited To the British High Commissioner's Residence
yesterday for Dinner with the Board of the Commonwealth Development
Corporation. The High Commissioner Rob Macaire had of course been
handling the Chandler release the day before and apparently for some
considerable time before that.

It was a Lovely Dinner and The Menu is here Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/37j9y4

I saved it because I knew when I got home Nishet would ask

'What was the Food Like?' The Chef whose name was Bruce Mackenzie [and
self evidently Kenyan and Mugo Kibati and I both amused ourselves with
the thought that we wish we could wheel out such a Fellow at our
Soirees] and he gave a very delightful exposition before he served us.
I met the Chairman Richard Gillingwater who told me he had worked at
CSFB and we swapped stories and agreed that Neither of Us had found
that Working Atmosphere again. It was unique and the Risk Taking and
Speed of Decision making something like a DNA that You are lucky to
ever find. Alistair Fernie [DFID] gave an excellent Perspective and
Everyone always tells me about him; 'He is on the Fastest of Fast
Tracks.' And I can see why. Adan Mohamed of Barclays, James Mworia of
Centum, Mugo Kibati Vision 2030 and myself held up the Kenya Corner.
Mugo told me Aly-Khan You know all these Plans Lamu Port Isiolo the
Resort City. These were Plans that the President had when he was a
Young Man. And now He is in a very great Hurry.'

Once again Thank You All and I welcome the CDC Board to this Missive.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

Martin O-O CEO KCB at #Mindspeak RICH TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php

The Actual Presentation that was projected onto the Screen
http://bit.ly/b8oKik

#Aljazeera Inside Story The Robin Hood Tax with Dareen Abughaida
http://bit.ly/abX4b1

What is #Mindspeak ?
http://bit.ly/9mhe39

The Next #Mindspeak is Saturday 27th November and we are hosting Liza
Mucheru-Wisner
http://lizawisner.com/wordpress/

Followed by 4th December where We are hosting Bob Collymore the CEO of Safaricom

Macro Thoughts

I fancy taking on the Dollar today.

Home Thoughts

I got home last Night and The Wife said

'what was Dinner like?'

I produced the Menu.

I said moreover High Commissioner Macaire has this Chef called David
Mackenzie who describes the Food before You eat it.

I said Can you start doing that?

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3486 The euro fell below $1.35 to its lowest level against the
dollar since Sept. 28
Pound 1.5869
Yen 83.42
Canada 1.0249
Aussie 0.9741
Rand 7.0491 -> This is a Buy
India Rupee 45.01

Dollar Index 3 months INO 79.262
http://bit.ly/cfmNIL

Euro versus Dollar 1 Year Chart INO 1.3476
http://bit.ly/9pP06c

Conclusions

The Dollar has stretched a great Deal.

I like the Rand right here and some Aussie at these Levels.

read more



A black lacquer "Tardieu" desk Bloomberg
Misc.

A black lacquer "Tardieu" desk created by the Art Deco designer
Emile-Jacques Ruhlmann. It is expected to sell for between 2 million
euros and 3 million euros at Christie's International's three-day
auction of the Gourdon Collection of 20th-century design in Paris from
March 29 to March 30. Source: Christie's Images via Bloomberg

read more


Harvard Bans Vuvuzelas for 127th Football Game Against Yale Bloomberg
Misc.

Harvard University won’t allow vuvuzelas at its season-ending football
game against Yale University because their constant drone might
distract and disturb players, band members and fans.The university
announced the ban while students on both campuses sold the plastic
horns made popular during June’s soccer World Cup in South Africa. The
127th meeting between the teams is scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. local
time on Nov. 20 at Harvard Stadium in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

“Artificial noisemakers will not be permitted inside the ticketed
footprint of Harvard Stadium,” Tim Wheaton, Harvard’s associate
director of athletics, said in a statement.

Students, football players and band members from both schools objected
to the vuvuzelas because the blast reaches 127 decibels, compared with
100 decibels from a chainsaw, said Elliot Eaton, a senior and drum
major, conductor and musical director for the Yale Precision Marching
Band.

“If you have thousands of students with vuvuzelas on both sides of the
stadium that is painful, that is miserable, that is not effective for
showing school spirit,” said Eaton.

The horns became popular when Eric Cervini and Johnathon Davis, both
Harvard freshmen, started a “Silence Yale” campaign last month. The
friends sold their first order of 300 vuvuzelas almost immediately
and, in conjunction with a few upperclassmen, had sold more than 2,000
when the ban was announced.

“Even if we can’t bring them into the stadium, the biggest part of the
Harvard-Yale game, at least for the students there is the tailgate,”
said Cervini. “At least we’ll have them there.”

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities

Energy, metal and agricultural products plunged on fears that China
will act to fight price increases, less than a month after raising
interest rates. The losses added to steep declines Friday, after
China's inflation rate was reported up 4.4% in October from a year
ago.

read more




Soft Commodities at a Glance INO
Commodities

Cocoa -1.32%
Coffee below 200.00 at 197.80 -3.83%
Cotton -1.80%
Sugar -2.96%

Conclusions

Caught up int China Commodity Sell Off.

Sugar March 2011 1 Month Chart 26.31 Last -21.2% since 11th November
http://bit.ly/aIn4QP

Last Price    26.31
Open    26.69
High    27.79
Volume    61,437
Expiration    2011-02-28
Open Int.    236844
Contract High    33.39 Contract High Date    2010-11-11
Contract Low    11.9
First Delivery    2011-05-15

Conclusions

Has retraced 21.2% from its Record High 11th November

read more


Pink Diamond Bought by Graff for Record $46 Million in Geneva Bloomberg
Commodities

Laurence Graff, a London jewelry dealer, last night bought a diamond
in a Swiss sale for 45.4 million francs ($45.6 million), a record for
any gem at auction.Graff’s telephone bid for the pink stone beat an
estimate of 27 million francs to 38 million francs at Sotheby’s,
Geneva.

“It is the most fabulous diamond I’ve seen in my career,” Graff said
in a statement issued by Sotheby’s. He named the gem “the Graff Pink,”
the auction house said.

A 24.78-carat pink diamond that sold at Sotheby's Nov. 16 auction of
jewels in Geneva. Not seen on the open market for 60 years, it was
estimated to sell for between 27 million francs and 38 million francs.
It fetched 45.4 million francs. Source: Sotheby's via Bloomberg

read more


$ versus Rand ForexPros 7.0652 Last
World Currencies

This is in fact a Buy Zone but Caution should prevail and I would scale in.

read more


INTERVIEW-Britain's CDC targets Kenya's infrastructure sector Reuters
Kenyan Economy


Britain's development finance institution, CDC Group PLC, said on
Tuesday it was focusing the bulk of its 57 million pound ($91 million)
Kenyan investment portfolio on infrastructure and financial services.
Chief Executive Officer Richard Laing told Reuters the Kenya portfolio
had shrunk slightly in the past few years, having exited from some
strong investments, but said he wanted to now put that capital back
into east Africa's largest economy.The investments had run their
course, CDC said.

"There's a lot of potential and with the huge (population) growth
Kenya is seeing, over a million additional heads per annum, that's
going to need a lot of infrastructure investment and provides a lot of
opportunities," said Laing.

Owned by the UK government's Department for International Development,
CDC invests in promising businesses in developing countries, primarily
in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Laing said Kenya needed to ensure it kept reforming policy to lure
foreign investors and keep apace with other regional economies, like
Rwanda, that have made big gains in the World Bank's index on ease of
doing business.Kenya slipped four places to 98 in the 2011 Doing
Business report compared with the previous year while Rwanda climbed
to 58 from 70.

Roughly half of CDC's Kenyan investments, which are managed by local
fund managers, are in infrastructure projects, including the country's
fast growing telecoms sector, and about a quarter focus on financial
services.

"Any business associated with the consumer is very interesting. What
you have now for the first time in the country is people who have
discretionary spending (power). How are they going to spend their
money? What goods, what services?"

Laing hailed the gathering momentum in Kenya's fight against
corruption and said there was a clear surge in political will to stamp
out grand-scale theft.

"What really encourages me is that these things are being talked
about. I am less worried about heads rolling and much more interested
in whether business is going to do business in the way it should and
is government going to allow it to do so," he said.

Conclusions

Very Eloquent He was at Dinner.

read more



Kenya’s Internet users best bet for investors in region Business Daily
Information & Communication Technology

Kenya’s average Internet consumer spends at least 20 per cent more
money than her peers in the rest of East Africa, a new report shows,
indicating that the region’s biggest economy presents the highest
growth potential for investors in the data market.
The report by Research ICT Africa says Kenyan Internet consumers spend
about Sh1,900 ($23.96) a month compared to Tanzanians’ Sh1,440
($18.80). Users in Ethiopia and Rwanda spend less than Sh960 each.But
Kenya still trails Nigeria, whose average spend is about Sh4,000
($51.32), Ghana’s Sh3,280 ($41.32) and South Africa’s Sh2,640 ($33.68)
per month.

“This research puts the country at an advantageous position on the
continent. In the past we have seen potential investors into Kenya shy
away from injecting their funds into the country citing low Internet
penetration levels or the lack of real time data on the ICT sector,”
said Information and Communication PS, Dr Bitange Ndemo, while
launching the study on Tuesday.

The report — funded by the International Development Research Centre
(IDRC) — reviewed the ICT sector from a supply perspective in selected
African countries to enable comparison of policy outcomes against
national strategies and sector performance.

The research conducted in Kenya was benchmarked against 16 other
African countries including Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Ivory
Coast, Burkina Faso, Zambia, Benin, Mozambique, Cameroon, Senegal and
Botswana. Others were Nigeria, Ghana, Namibia and South Africa.

It cites the lack of local language content, lack of technical
know-how and unavailability of interesting content on the net as the
main impediments. Other reasons include high access costs, slow
speeds, inaccessibility to personal computers and time constraints.
“Until the landing of the fibre optic cable, Kenya’s Internet market
was controlled majorly by Kenya Data Networks, AccessKenya and
Wananchi Online. However, mobile operators have become the largest
Internet Service Providers with the landing of the undersea cable,”
the report notes.

The research puts the number of Internet users at 3.65 million in
2009, representing a penetration rate of 9.5 per cent compared to the
7.83 million by June this year, representing a 20 per cent
penetration.This puts Kenya’s Internet penetration rate ahead of South
Africa at 10.8 per cent, Uganda (9.6 per cent), Ghana (5.3 per cent)
and Rwanda (4.1 per cent). Tanzania (1.6 per cent) and Ethiopia (0.5
per cent) trail.The research finds Morocco with the highest
penetration rates at 33.4 per cent, beating Nigeria to the second
position with about 28.9 per cent.

“Growth last year was largely due to the entry of mobile operators’,
aggressive roll-out of data services, and increased access to social
networking sites through mobile phones that has become popular among
the youth,” said Prof Timothy Waema, Kenya team leader, Research ICT
Africa .

Conclusions

The Star Mobile Telephony is Africa's Silver Bullet
http://bit.ly/a8GCDI

read more


Kenyan Coffee Price Jumps 9.5% at Auction on Quality Bloomberg
Commodities

The top arabica AA grade sold for an average of $413.08 for a
50-kilogram (110-pound) bag, compared with $377.07 a fortnight
earlier, the exchange said late yesterday in an e-mail from the
capital, Nairobi. Supplies of the grade rose 20 percent to 4,246 bags,
it said. The average price for all coffee sold was little changed at
$295.16 per bag from $295 at the previous auction after supplies
increased, the agency said.

“There was some very good quality coffee at the auction,” Mansukh
Shah, a coffee trader at the Nairobi-based Alanwood Ltd., said by
phone yesterday. “We are getting fresh supplies from the new crop in
the central region.”

read more


Deacons to launch $10 mln shr offer Reuters
Retail & Manufacturing

Kenyan clothing and home products retailer Deacons said on Tuesday it
would launch an 800 million shilling ($10 million) share offering to
fund expansion, with a view to listing the shares in a year or more.

"The lifestyle brands retailer has already received regulatory
approval from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) to raise additional
funds from both existing and potential new shareholders," said
Deacons, which has franchises for South African Mr. Price (MPCJ.J:
Quote), Truworths (TRUJ.J: Quote) and Woolworths (WHLJ.J: Quote),
Identity and Sheet Street.It has also created two of its own brands,
4u2 and Angelo.Deacons also has outlets for sports equipment from
Adidas and Life Fitness.

"It is a public offer, not an IPO. It's a step towards listing in 12
to 18 months," said Chief Executive Muchiri Wahome.

Deacons has previously said it planned eventually to list on the
Nairobi Stock Exchange.

The privately held firm has been in Kenya since 1958 and has 23
stores, including three in Tanzania and one in Uganda. It is also
eyeing the Rwandan market.

read more


U.S. Says Kenya Become a Major Hub for Drug Smugglers Bloomberg
Africa


The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration plans to open an office in
Kenya, which has become a hub for drug traffickers, U.S. Ambassador
Michael Ranneberger said.Kenya is a “significant” transit route for
cocaine from South America bound mostly for Europe, and a “major”
destination for heroin and other narcotics, Ranneberger said today in
an e-mailed copy of a speech delivered in Mombasa. Shipments also go
to North America, he said.

Kenya, East Africa’s biggest economy, has the region’s busiest port
and borders Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia and southern Sudan.
Screening procedures by the country’s Anti- Narcotics Unit at sea
ports are weak and corruption is also a problem, Ranneberger said.

“Because narcotics trafficking is a major and growing threat, and is
an integral part of the culture of impunity, it is vitally important
that the Kenyan government intensify efforts to combat it,” he said.

The presence of the drugs is feeding addiction within the country and
money from trafficking is being directed to help fund political
campaigns, Ranneberger said.

“Drug barons use their drug money to contribute to political campaigns
and to buy influence with politicians and the media,” he said.

Four senior Kenyan government officials and one prominent businessman
have been barred from traveling to the U.S. because of “reliable”
reports that they are involved in the illicit drug-trafficking trade,
Ranneberger said. Kenyan lawmakers must report sources of campaign
funding and surrender money found to have been donated by convicted
smugglers, he said.

read more


Bharti aims for 100 million African subs within two years TeleGeography
Information & Communication Technology

India’s Bharti Airtel, which in June 2010 completed the acquisition of
Kuwait-based Zain’s African assets, has said that it expects
subscriber numbers at its new units to rise beyond the 100 million
mark within the next two years, more than double the 40 million it has
now, India’s Business Standard reports. Citing comments made by Bharti
CEO Sunil Mittal, the report also claims that the company expects to
operate a similar business model to its domestic mobile unit, with low
calling rates to be introduced to increase call volumes. To that end,
Mittal noted that on entering Kenya, Bharti had reduced mobile rates
by between 40% and 45%, which in turn saw the number of minutes used
increase by around 50% within a five-week period. ‘We need to expand
networks and lower tariffs, which will create elasticity of demand,
with the addition of new customers and an increase in minute of use,’
the executive said.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The NSE20 slipped 5.08 points to close at 4541.20 making that a 3.48%
correction from the 2010 High.
The Nairobi All Share closed 0.12 points lower at 100.62.
Market Cap was 1.200332 Trillion versus 1.201892 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 563.485m versus 416.007m.
Kenya Airways was the Stand Out and traded  7.335m shares worth
309.952m some 55.006% of the Total Turnover today as Buyers picked up
the Overhang at an Implied forward PE of under 7.00. EABL closed at
its 3rd Consecutive Closing Record High. The Balance of the Bourse
appears to have found its Equilibrium again and now looks set to point
higher again.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea traded 4,500 shares and closed at 13.65.
Rea Vipingo was unchanged at 17.15 and traded 7,300 shares.
Kakuzi traded a 100 shares at 83.50.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Equity Bank traded 2nd at the Bourse. Equity Bank eased 0.94% to close
at 26.25 and traded a 26.25-26.50 range and 2.050m shares worth
53.84m. Equity Bank has posted a 90.254% 1 Year Return and sits 5.405%
below its 2010 High of 27.75 printed 9th August 2010.
COOP Bank traded 4th at the Bourse. COOP Bank was unchanged at 19.95
and traded a 19.85-20.00 range and 994,500 shares worth 19.842m. COOP
Bank has posted a 131.577% 1 Year Return and its all time High was
21.50 on 26th October.
KCB traded 5th at the Bourse. KCB firmed 1.16% to close at 21.75 and
traded a 21.50-22.00 range and 851,100 shares worth 18.542m. KCB
trades on a Forward PE Multiple of less than 9.00 and looks mispriced.

KCB reported 3rd Quarter Earnings 2010 19.341% ahead of Full Year 2009
here www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/bshUrU

StanChart firmed a shilling to close at 271.00 and traded 11,200 shares.
Barclays Bank [And It was a pleasure to catch up with the MD Adan
Mohammed yesterday] eased 0.78% to close at 63.50 and traded 192,400
shares worth 12.219m. It has been well contained in a 61.00-70.00
range and we are now nearer the Bottom of the Trading Range.

NIC traded 107,300 shares and closed at 48.00 -1.03%.
CFC StanBic was marked down 1.72% to close at 86.00 and traded 2,700 shares.
DTB traded 8,500 shares and closed at 131.00 + 1 shilling. DTB
reported very muscular 3rd Quarter Earnings. see here
http://bit.ly/4A8Khs
HFCK eased 25 cents to close at 26.75 and traded 51,900 shares.
NBK closed 50 cents easier at 39.25 and traded 18,600 shares.

Centum eased 1.06% to close at 23.25 and traded 137,000. It was indeed
a Pleasure to catch up with the MD James Mworia yesterday and He was
both Bullish and constructive.

Kenya Re bounced 2.66% to close at 11.55 and traded 231,800 shares.
Jubilee was marked down 2.5% to close at 195.00 and traded 500 shares.
PanAfric did  not trade.

Olympia Capital traded 1,800 shares at 6.85.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL firmed 0.45% to close at 222.00 and traded a 220.00-223.00 range
and 77,500 shares worth 17.239m. EABL has Buy Side Demand for 300%
more than was traded in todays session and this signals firm
conditions underfoot. EABL has now closed at New All time Highs on 3
Consecutive sessions and is up 65.305% over a 1 Year Period.

EABL share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/57wrgL

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:          221.00
Total Shares Issued:          790,774,336
Market Capitalization:        174,761M
EPS:            9.09
PE:                24.312

Mumias Sugar eased a further 1.03% to close at 9.60 and traded a
9.50-9.70 range and 1.785m shares worth 17.198m. Mumias Sugar has
retreated 38.06% from 15.50 levels traded 5th August this Year. It has
been a relentless downdraft since then. Mumias Sugar is up 57.11% over
a 1 Year Period.

Sameer Africa followed on yesterdays limit Fall 9.15% to close a
further 2.87% lower at 6.75 and traded 130,000 shares.

Sameer Africa issued a Profits Warning here http://bit.ly/dCsksT

KenGen bounced 1.18% to close at 17.05 and traded 478,700 shares.
Noise Levels in the Sector have ratcheted higher and The Price had
reacted sharply but Investors are in now picking up Stock at these
lower levels.
KPLC rallied 1.42% to close at 214.00 and traded 35,000 shares. The
Price had reacted lower ahead of key Pricing Data reference the Rights
Issue.
Cables traded 51,100 shares and closed lower at 18.05.

KenolKobil traded 1.279m shares and closed at 10.60.
Total traded 26,900 shares at an unchanged 29.00.

Carbacid rallied 5.369% to close at 157.00 and traded 6,000 shares.
BOC Kenya traded 2,500 shares and was unchanged at 140.00

Bamburi Cement traded 800 shares only at 199.00 unchanged.
ARM traded 175.00 unchanged with light volume of 13,900 shares.
Portland did not trade.

Crown Berger firmed 2.81% to close at 36.50 and traded 300 shares only.
Eveready was unchanged at 3.40 and traded 138,800 shares.
Unga was unchanged at 11.80 on 32,500 shares.
BAT did not trade.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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