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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 18th of November 2010

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here

#Aljazeera Inside Story The Robin Hood Tax with Dareen Abughaida

What is #Mindspeak ?

The Next #Mindspeak is Saturday 27th November and we are hosting Liza

Followed by 4th December where We are hosting Bob Collymore the CEO of

I thank CDC for the Invitation to their Entrepreneurship Seminar at
the Serena last Night.

Some of My Tweets

CDC Entrepreneurship Mugo Kibati #Vision 2030 Secretariat
www.rich.co.ke We Are an Early Stage #Nation
CDC Entrepreneurship Seminar #Nairobi #Serena Virtual City Are Fund
Managers ready for Entrepreneurs?
CDC Entrepreneurship Most Entrepreneurs want respect They get no
Respect from their Wives or their Banks Ayisi Makatiani
CDC Entrepreneurship Jimnah Mbaru Entrepreneurs want Ownership - need
to get in the Entrepreneur's Mind Set

I have Ayisi of Fanisi Capital and Paul Kavuma of Catalyst Partners on
My floor at Purshottam and it has been very interesting watching them
both get themselves up and running.

I think the Best Venture Capitalists are Entrepreneurs themselves, in fact.

Macro Thoughts

Will the Bounce Hold?

Home Thoughts

Alistair Fernie says to me 'What are You a Journalist or an Entrepreneur?'

I should have responded as per Apple circa 1997

Here’s to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers.
The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things
differently. They’re not fond of rules. And they have no respect for
the status quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or
vilify them. About the only thing you can’t do is ignore them. Because
they change things. They push the human race forward. And while some
may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the people who
are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who

Thats my Mantra.

I am a Trader First -

read more

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3597
Pound 1.5920
Yen 83.17
Aussie 0.9857
Rand 6.9563
India Rupee 45.5

The report of a 0.2% rise in the U.S. consumer price index for October
helped ignite the euro's modest rally.


I did say yesterday that the Dollar was a Sell.

read more

GM Stock Sale in High Gear WSJ
Tourism, Travel & Transport

General Motors Co. is on pace to sell $18.1 billion in shares in what
likely will be the second-largest U.S. initial public offering ever,
capping a remarkable two-year turnaround in which the car maker went
from begging for a government bailout to posting its first steady
profits in more than six years.

GM sold about 478 million shares Wednesday at $33 each, a price higher
than the company and its bankers thought was possible just days ago.
An additional 71.7 million shares are expected to be sold by GM's
bankers as part of an "overallotment" allowed when sales are stronger
than expected. And it sold $4.35 billion in preferred shares.

With Wednesday's sale, including the overallotment, the Treasury lost
roughly $4.5 billion on GM shares it acquired at an effective cost of
$43.84 apiece. The Treasury would need to reap $26.4 billion, or an
average of $52.79 a share, on its remaining stake to break even.

read more

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Commodities finally find some Bounce.

Gold futures climbed more than $12 an ounce on Globex during afternoon
trading in Tokyo, with fresh weakness in the U.S. dollar helping the
market recoup some of its two-session loss of more than $31.Gold for
December delivery was up $12.30 at $1,349.20 an ounce after tapping an
intraday high of $1,349.40 in electronic trading. The contract, which
has tallied a two-session loss of $31.60, settled at its lowest level
in three weeks Wednesday in New York.

read more

Soft Commodities at a Glance INO

Cocoa +2.12%
Coffee +0.55%
Cotton +2.73%
Sugar +0.53%

Tentative Turnaround.

#Chocolate 's Dark #Cult  WSJ

"You're smelling a lot of fruit," Alexandra Leaf told me.
I played along but, to be honest, I wasn't smelling even a little fruit.
"There's an earthiness to it," she explained, proceeding to the next sample.
If you say so.
"Did you get the smokiness on this?" she asked, of a third.

"This is not for the faint of heart," Mark Spini, a Guittard
representative, warned as he offered me a piece of 91% cacao-content
chocolate. "This is full-tilt boogie, coming at you, eight cylinders."

read more

Singapore Forecasts Record Expansion in 2010; Currency Climbs Bloomberg

Singapore said its economy will expand a record 15 percent this year,
the fastest pace in Asia, even as slowing global growth threatens to
damp export demand. The island’s currency rose.

Gross domestic product will grow 4 percent to 6 percent in 2011, the
trade ministry said in a statement. The economy, vulnerable to swings
in demand for its drugs and electronics, shrank less than previously
estimated in the third quarter. The nation, which has had three
recessions in the past decade, won’t experience one this year, the
government said today.

“It’s clear that Singapore remains fairly upbeat on growth and it
seems the concerns are more on the inflation front,” said Selena Ling,
head of treasury research at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in
Singapore. “The question is how long we expect Singapore and the rest
of Asia to chug along notwithstanding the slowdown in the developed

The island’s currency has gained about 8 percent against the U.S.
dollar this year, and closed at a record S$1.2835 on Nov. 4. It rose
as much as 0.3 percent to S$1.2987 a dollar before trading at S$1.3005
as of 10:48 a.m. local time.

The island’s 15 percent forecast growth rate this year would be the
fastest in the world after Qatar’s, according to International
Monetary Fund estimates.

Singapore’s construction industry may shrink next year and the private
home market may ease, the trade ministry said today. In August, the
government announced measures to cool the property market, including
increasing down payments for second mortgages and imposing a stamp
duty on property held for less than three years.

A view of Singapore's central business district skyline. Photographer:
Munshi Ahmed/Bloomberg


Just Muscular.

$ versus Singapore Dollar INO 1.2997 Last

read more

Dubai malls to hike retail rents 35% in 2011
RealEstate, Housing & Construction

Landlords in Dubai malls have raised their rents for next year by as
much as 35 percent, the head of one of the emirate’s largest retail
conglomerates has said.

Leaseholders can expect a significant hike in shop rents following a
pick-up in sales across the emirate, said Abdulla Al Gurg, group
general manager of Easa Saleh Al Gurg Group, which operates brands
such as Better Life, United Colours of Benetton and Unilever.

“Some of the major retailer asset owners have increased their rents to
35 percent for [2011],” he told Arabian Business. “It really just
doesn’t make sense. What is the rationale behind it?”

Mall owners are “playing a monopoly role, by owning the majority of
real estate in retail,” he said.


I was probably the only Shopper Monday Morning when I was there.

The Dubai Mall

read more

India's Bharti has 200 mln customers on network: chair Reuters
Information & Communication Technology

Bharti Airtel, India's top mobile phone operator, has 200 million
customers on its network, chairman Sunil Mittal said on Thursday.The
company operates in 19 countries across Asia and Africa after its
$9-billion African telecoms acquisition this year.

read more

Madagascan Armed Forces Refuse to Join Coup Attempt by Officers Bloomberg
Law & Politics

Madagascar’s armed forces refused to rally round an attempted coup by
army officers opposed to President Andry Rajoelina, after a referendum
on a new constitution that opponents say may be used to extend his
rule.Twenty months after helping Rajoelina take power, the group of
senior army officials yesterday called for the government to be
dissolved in a declaration distributed from a base near the capital,

“The declaration was made by 20 or so members of the armed forces,”
Colonel Philibert Ratovonirina, head of communications for the army,
said by phone. “But, there was no coup. The government and security
forces will stop this.”


“There will be an arrangement between the military forces to prevent a
blood bath.”

read more

SABMiller Profit Increases 15% on Growth in Developing Markets Bloomberg
Retail & Manufacturing

SABMiller Plc, the maker of Grolsch and Peroni beers, said first-half
profit increased 15 percent as growth in developing markets helped
combat sluggish consumer spending in Europe.Net income rose to $1.12
billion in the six months ended September from $973 million a year
earlier, the London-based company said in a statement today. The
average of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg was $1.24

SABMiller, the world’s second-biggest brewer by volume, is relying on
sales growth in Asia and Africa to offset declines in Latin America
and Europe. Earnings also benefited from price increases and the
strength of the company’s major operating currencies against the U.S.

“SAB’s sales growth is more or less best in class courtesy of its
strong emerging-market footprint,” Matrix Group analysts including
Matthew Jordan wrote in a Nov. 15 note.

The brewer is interested in making acquisitions, Chief Financial
Officer Malcolm Wyman said in a Bloomberg Television interview. He
declined to comment on Foster’s Group Ltd.

Group revenue, which includes sales from associates such as
MillerCoors LLC, rose to $14.24 billion from $13.36 billion a year
earlier. That exceeded the $13.96 billion average estimate.

SABMiller said it plans to raise prices “selectively,” based on
“incremental improvement” in economic conditions. The brewer expects
to benefit from lower raw-material costs and increased productivity,
though at a more moderate rate than in the first half, it also said.

Shareholders will get an interim dividend of 19.5 cents a share, up
from 17 cents a year earlier.

SABMiller rose 37.5 pence, or 1.9 percent, to 2,052 pence in London
trading yesterday. The stock has risen 12 percent in 2010, while
Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, the world’s largest brewer, has gained 19

SABMiller share price data Bloomberg

% Change1.862        
52-Wk High (10/19/10)2,103.000   
52-Wk Low (01/26/10)1,638.000   
1-Yr Return26.578
Shares (Millions)1,584.559   
Market Cap (GBP) (Millions)32,515.150   

read more

Ethiopia to Introduce One-Year Treasury Bill Auction Next Month Bloomberg
World Of Finance

Ethiopia will introduce a one-year treasury bill and begin weekly
auctions in December, the government said in a letter to the
International Monetary Fund.The Horn of Africa nation is planning the
sales “to refine our liquidity management capability,” according to
the letter, which was signed by Finance Minister Sufian Ahmed and
central bank Governor Teklewold Atnafu.

Treasury bill auctions are held sporadically and the notes are sold in
durations of 28, 91 and 182 days. State-owned commercial banks are the
main buyers of the notes, which had an average weighted yield of 0.778
percent in the last three months of 2009, the latest period of data
available, according to the National Bank of Ethiopia’s website.

In 2008, the National Bank of Ethiopia raised reserve requirements for
commercial banks in an effort to reduce the amount of money in
circulation and quell inflation, which peaked at 64.2 percent in July
of that year. The rate declined to 10.6 percent last month, according
to the Central Statistics Agency.

The country is also targeting economic growth of 11 percent in
2010-11, though the government said it is making a “conservative
assumption” of 8.5 percent growth, the IMF letter said.

Africa’s largest coffee producer is aiming for a budget deficit of 6.5
percent of gross domestic product during the same period, according to
the statement.

Ethiopia devalued its currency, the birr, 16.5 percent against the
U.S. dollar in September in an effort to boost exports and reduce
persistent trade deficits.

read more

Nigeria inflation eases to 13.4 year-year in October Reuters

Nigeria's consumer inflation eased to 13.4 percent year-on-year in
October from 13.6 percent the previous month due largely to slower
growth in food prices, the National Bureau of Statistics said on
Wednesday.Growth in food prices, which form the bulk of the inflation
index basket in Africa's most populous country, eased to 14.1 percent
year-on-year from 14.6 percent in September.

"The marginal fall in the index was caused mainly by slight decreases
in the prices of some food items like yam, potatoes and other tubers
due to the harvest season," the bureau said.

The central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark lending rate for
the first time in more than a year in September to 6.25 percent from
6.0 percent, switching attention from boosting growth to battling
inflation in sub-Saharan Africa's number two economy.

Higher government spending ahead of elections due next April is likley
to keep upward pressure on inflation, analysts say.

read more

Kenya to launch Africa's first carbon exchange BBC
Food, Climate & Agriculture

Kenya is to launch a climate exchange platform to facilitate the
trading of carbon credits and help tackle climate change.
The market will be the first of its kind in Africa, enabling all
African countries to sell their carbon credits.The exchange is
expected to be open for business by the middle of next year.

One carbon credit is equal to one tonne of carbon dioxide, or in some
markets, carbon dioxide-equivalent gases.

The BBC's Kevin Mwachiro in Nairobi says officials hope the trade in
carbon credits will open up investment in the generation of renewable
energy and forestry projects.

Kenya's government estimates that its largest forest, the Mau, has the
potential to earn the country close to $2bn (£1.2bn) a year over the
next 15 years.

But our reporter says that before the country runs to the bank, this
value would have to be certified by the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change.


Some Way Off.

The Mau Forest Kenya

read more

Deacons sale of shares raises the stakes in retail market Business Daily
Retail & Manufacturing

Clothing and household goods retailer Deacons Kenya has set in motion
a regional expansion drive that will see it double its stores in the
next five years and list shares at the Nairobi Stock Exchange by the
end of next year.

The company kicked off a public share sale on Wednesday, hoping to
broaden its shareholding structure and raise Sh800 million from
investors, in what Muchiri Wahome, the firm’s chief executive, said
was part of raising its profile ahead of the intended public listing.

Deacons is looking at increasing its stores to 54 by 2014 in Kenya and
in Uganda, where it already has a store, as well as entering the
Rwandan market.

The lifestyle retailer will be selling 12.8 million shares at Sh62.5
each to the public in a move targeting about 1,500 new investors, a
broad ownership criteria essential for a company listing at the
Nairobi Stock Exchange. It is presently owned by 18 investors.“We have
intentions to list at the NSE and it can happen within the next 12
months from the closure of this offering,” said Mr Wahome. As matters
stand, that would be the first listing at the NSE since that of the
Co-operative Bank of Kenya in 2008.

Of the 12.8 million shares on offer, 45 per cent have been reserved
for Qualified Institutional Investors (QII), 30 per cent for
individuals and corporate investors, 20 per cent for existing
shareholders while staff will get five per cent under the staff share
save scheme. Standard Investment Bank and Kestrel Capital are the
transaction advisors and selling agents.

The offer opened on Wednesday following an approval by the CMA last
week and is expected to close on November 30th with the results of
allocation to be announced on December 6th.

Deacons had a private placement in 2006 at an offer of Sh30 a share.
It raised Sh118 million that was used to open 15 new stores, bringing
its outlets in Kenya to 23. A store was opened in both Uganda and
Tanzania as the company increased the brands within its staple.The
company has Woolworths, Mr Price, Mr Price Home Adidas, Angelo,
Truworths, Identity, 4U2, and the most recent LifeFitness brands.

The company forecasts sales of Sh2 billion for this year compared to
Sh1.44 billion last year. Its net income is expected to close the year
at Sh149 million compared to Sh79.6 million the previous year.The net
income for 2008 was Sh68.3 million after the economy was depressed by
post election violence compared to Sh99.9 million in 2007.


If You go further South You will note a Multiplicity of SA Retailers.
The Deacons Strategy appears to be the UBER Shop Front for many of
these Retailers and I think its a Clever Strategy.

read more

KCB share price and 3rd Quarter Results www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          21.75
Total Shares Issued:          2,950,259,712
Market Capitalization:        64,168M
EPS:            1.84
PE:                11.821

Martin O-O CEO KCB at #Mindspeak RICH TV

The Actual Presentation that was projected onto the Screen

read more

Keroche shops for Sh1b loan Business Daily
Retail & Manufacturing

Naivasha-based beer brewer Keroche is seeking at least Sh1 billion to
expand its plant in readiness for the roll-out of new products early
next year.The brewer, which is Kenya’s second largest, has already
signalled its intentions for the liquor market with the launch on
Tuesday of a new product –– Vienna Ice Lemon Twisted Vodka –– seeking
to extend its footprint in the local spirits market.

Tabitha Karanja, the Keroche Industries chief executive, said the firm
had approached a consortium of local banks seeking credit that will
give it the financial muscle it needs to expand its product offering
and boost its production capacity.

“We are in the market looking for funds to grow the business and get
us the impetus we need to effectively compete both in the spirits and
beer segments of the market,” said Ms Karanja.

The privately-owned alcohol firm has invested Sh1 billion in the
business over the past two years to boost its capacity. “This should
help us grow our market share from the current two per cent to at
least 10 per cent by the end of 2010,” she said.

read more

M-Pesa to get Sh384m from Bill Gates charity Nation
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Mrs Gates praised Safaricom’s M-Pesa and cited the service as an
example of how such services can help poor people.

“In Kenya, M-Pesa is showing what storing and transferring money on
mobile phones can do for poor people — not only in theory and pilot
projects, but at an enormous scale,” Mrs Gates told the gathering.

Safaricom share price data and 1st Half results Analysis www.rich.co.ke

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:          4.55
Total Shares Issued:          40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization:        182,000M
EPS:            0.38
PE:                11.974

Swot Analysis Key Highlights 6 months to 30 Sep 2010 versus to 30 Sep 2009
EPS 0.193 versus 0.168 +14.9%
Revenue 47.111850b versus 40.660829b +15.9%
PAT 7.630591b versus 6.631898b +15.1%
16.71m Customers
CAPEX was 10.1b
Customer Market share 76.7% from 78.3 -> Note Well They lost only 1.6%
Data Revenue as a Percentage of Total Revenue 23.8% versus 17.7% in Sep 2009
Blended ARPU 456.6 versus 466 previous Kenya Data 3.61m #Data Users 9%
of #Kenya Population

read more

N.S.E Today

The NSE20 turned 14.08 points higher to close at 4555.28.
The NASI was down 0.09 points to close at 100.52.
Market Cap was 1.199173 Trillion versus 1.201257 Trillion last time.
Equity Turnover was 356.394m versus 563.485m.
The Bourse has retraced less than 4% from its 2010 High and is
pointing higher again. As Long as the 'Racketeers' in the Petroleum
Business are kept in their Box, GDP will surprise to the Upside this
Year. The Stimulus Effect of the Mobile Phone Price War is worth
between $66m-$100m a month and this is cementing and entrenching the
1st Half Recovery.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Rea Vipingo traded 54,400 shares and closed at 17.00.
Sasini Tea traded 4,900 shares and closed at 13.70.
Kakuzi traded 7,200 shares and closed at 83.00.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


shares volume     9,862,800
total turnover     44,722,260
avg price     4.5344 Closing Price 4.50 -1.1%
high price     4.55
low price     4.50
last price     4.50


At a Trailing PE of less than 12.00 and running way ahead of the Data
Curve, I think Safaricom is steeply oversold. If I measure Share of
Voice, Safaricom and M-Pesa in particular is popping on Radars on all
over the World. The Sell Side Pressure has been entirely Retail
[Retail shareholders number just shy of 800,000] and I think this
Price merits a very close look. Safaricom was the 4th most active
share at the Bourse today.

The Overhang of Kenya Airways shares might well have been cleared
yesterday with more than 7m shares being traded. Kenya Airways traded
35,200 shares and improved 0.591% to close at 42.50. Kenya Airways if
it maintains the 1st Half Run Rate trades on a Forward of about 6.75.

ScanGroup was marked down 4.44% to close at 64.50 and traded just

Access Kenya traded 104,900 shares and closed 0.898% easier at 16.55.
Access Kenya is down 22.585% over 1 Year and now sits 3.4375% above
its 52 week low of 16.00 from 25th May 2010.

CMC Holdings was unchanged at 13.00 and 72,800 shares changed hands.
Cargen traded 800 shares and closed lower at 48.00.

Nation traded 3,000 shares at an unchanged 167.00.
Standard bounced 75 cents to close at 42.50 and traded 4,000 shares.

TPS Serena traded 16,100 shares and closed unchanged at 68.00.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

COOP Bank was the most active share at the Bourse COOP Bank was
unchanged at 19.95 and traded 3.254m shares worth 65.061m. COOP Bank
has posted a 132.908% 1 Year return and sits 7.209% below its 2010
high of 21.50 posted 26th October.
KCB traded 6th at the Bourse and closed unchanged at 21.75 and traded
a 21.75-22.00 range and 1.129m shares worth 24.747m. Martin O-O CEO
KCB made a compelling case at Mindspeak, the Forward PE is less than
9.00 and I expect a move through 30.00 ahead or around the Full Year
Equity Bank was unchanged at 26.25 and traded 889,100 shares.
Barclays edged 50 cent slower to close at 63.00 and traded 48,600 shares.
Standard Chartered traded 4,400 shares at an unchanged 271.00.

NIC traded 3rd at the Bourse. NIC improved 0.52% to close at 48.25 and
traded a 48.00-48.50 range and 1.038m shares worth 50.33m. NIC has
posted a 90.305% 1 Year Return.

NIC share price data from www.rich.co.ke

DTB rallied 2.96% to close at 135.00 with 17,400 shares traded. DTB
reported muscular 3rd Quarter Earnings.
CFC StanBic traded 5,600 shares at 86.00 unchanged.
HFCK traded 65,000 shares and closed unchanged at 26.75.
NBK closed down 1.91% at 38.50 and traded 8,000 shares.

Centum traded 140,600 shares and was unchanged at 23.25.

Kenya Re shaved off 10 cents to close at 11.45 and traded 131,400 shares.
Jubilee traded 700 shares and closed at 194.00.
PanAfric did not trade.

Olympia Capital reported a 1st Half loss and slipped 10 cents to close
at 6.75 and traded 22,900 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL traded 2nd overall. EABL firmed 0.891% to close at 224.00 its 4th
Consecutive All Time closing High. EABL traded a 222.00-225.00 range
and 232,600 shares worth 52.222m. SABMiller reported 1st Half Results
today and that probably gave the share further impetus. EABL has
posted a 68.736% 1 Year Return and Foreign Investors are Predominant
and on the Buy Side.

EABL share price data 4th Consecutive record close share data www.rich.co.ke

KenGen traded 5th at the Bourse. KenGen rallied 2.628% to close at
17.55 and traded a 17.00-18.00 range and 2.389m shares worth 41.936m.
Buyers stepped in to buy the Dip which was occasioned by some 'Cross
Purpose' Talk from the Ministry of Energy regarding the secondary
Tranche Sale of kenGen shares.
KPLC rallied 2.336% to close at 219.00 and traded 4,500 shares.
Cables closed at 18.10 +0.28% and traded 32,700 shares.

BAT was unchanged at 290.00 and traded 18,500 shares.

Bamburi Cement closed 2.01% softer at 195.00 and traded 66,000 shares.
ARM traded 9,400 shares and was unchanged at 175.00.
Portland traded 100 shares at 108.00 -5.26%.

Mumias Sugar bounced 10 cents to close at 9.70 and has been a
relentless Tailspin from 15.50 levels from 5th August. Mumias Sugar
traded 705,800 shares.

KenolKobil shaved off 10 cents to close at 10.50 and traded 152,700 shares.
Total traded 14,000 shares at 29.00 unchanged.

Unga firmed 15 cents to close at 11.95 and traded 11,700 shares.

Eveready slumped 7.35% to close at 3.15 and traded 18,600 shares.
Sameer slumped 5.185% to close 6.40 and traded 63,400 shares. Its
fallen about 20% this week after issuing a Profits Warning Friday
after the market closed.

Carbacid was marked down 4.45% to close at 150.00 on light volume of
BOC Kenya did not trade.
Crown Berger did not trade.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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November 2010

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