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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 19th of November 2010
 
Morning
Africa

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.


I thank Ghida Fakhry and Cicily Scott of AlJazeera for The
Interviews today. Thanks.

 Connecting from a Roof in #Nairobi to #Aljazeera and The #world Its
a Flat World www.rich.co.ke  Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/3855dy

I thank Herve Boyer, Fawzan Chaudhri and Mohammed Loonat all of CFC
Global Markets for an excellent Lunch yesterday. Herve then kindly
invited me to a Beaujolais Nouveau Party hosted by Total and Bamburi
at the Carnivore.

At One Point I asked 'Can You do 1 Touch Options?'

Herve 'In the Majors Yes.'

It was good to catch up with Serge of the Fairmont and The Managing
Director of Total and the CEO of the NSE.

I am presenting at Strathmore today

2nd Annual Diplomatic Summit 19th November 2010
http://bit.ly/bJ1xxQ

Strathmore Model United Nations club will on Friday, 19th November
hold the 2nd annual Diplomatic Summit in the auditorium. The event
will be opened by the Minister of East African Cooperation Hon (Prof)
Hellen Sambili.

Others to address the summit are the Rwanda High Commissioner to Kenya
His Excellency George Kayonga; Eng. Patrick Obath, the Chairman of
Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA); Ambassador Jean Kimani, Kenya’s
envoy to the Great Lakes region; and Aly-Khan Satchu, the founder of
Rich Management among others.

All are welcome. Come and discover the great employment, investment
and other business opportunities within the East African community.
Also learn more about ethics, governance, and leadership in the
region.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

#Aljazeera Inside Story The Robin Hood Tax with Dareen Abughaida
http://bit.ly/abX4b1

What is #Mindspeak ?
http://bit.ly/9mhe39

The Next #Mindspeak is Saturday 27th November and we are hosting Liza
Mucheru-Wisner
http://lizawisner.com/wordpress/

Followed by 4th December where We are hosting Bob Collymore the CEO of
Safaricom.

Macro Thoughts

Ben Bernanke.

Home Thoughts

@AnarSimpson @alykhansatchu Love your "Good Morning from the 8th
floor" - reassuring data point in our crazy, crazy world :-)

A Twitter Friend of Mine in San Francisco.

Mosque in Lamu before I was told off for taking this Photo Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/2rerhl

It really is a Place worthy of a Visit


South Africa-China trade ties: President Zuma bids to shore up
'Gateway to China' status CS Monitor
http://bit.ly/agk8KF

By Aly-Khan Satchu August 25, 2010 Nairobi, Kenya

When I saw the sheer size of South African President Jacob Zuma's
China Posse (17 Cabinet Members and 300 businessmen), I could not help
but feel that the size of the posse was commensurate with this new
"late cycle" China-Africa engagement.

This recent engagement was preceeded by one many centuries earlier and
that tale of the Chinese Muslim Admiral Ze is something the Chinese
are trying to ventilate in their quest for a China-Africa soft-power
story that might resonate today and on which they might hang their
hat.

Admiral Ze came to Africa in the 1400s and left behind Chinese DNA
from that time. This was recently discovered via some DNA tests done
on some villagers in the Lamu Archipelago, near Somalia. So watch that
space.

A Piece I wrote for the Star 30th August Lamu Admiral Zheng He China
Shanghai Shangha
http://bit.ly/9wRsqt

read more


Bernanke Takes Aim at China WSJ
World Of Finance

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is firing back amid criticism at
home and abroad of the Fed's easy-money policies, arguing that China
and others are causing global problems by preventing their currencies
from strengthening as their economies boom.By keeping their currencies
artificially weak, Mr. Bernanke argues in remarks prepared for
delivery in Frankfurt Friday, China and other emerging markets are
allowing their economies to overheat, preventing trade imbalances from
adjusting and worsening what he called a "two-speed" global recovery.

Their "strategy of currency undervaluation" is preventing more
"balanced and sustainable" global growth, he warns, echoing a view
expressed by Obama Administration officials.

Mr. Bernanke has come under attack for the Fed's decision to purchase
$600 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in an effort to drive down
long-term interest rates. Critics in the U.S say it could cause
inflation. Critics abroad say the flood of dollars that the Fed is
effectively printing to finance its bond purchases is pouring into
overseas markets and could cause asset bubbles.

Some also have accused the Fed of trying to weaken the dollar to spur
U.S. exports.

A chart accompanying his comments also pinpoints Taiwan, Singapore and
Thailand as aggressively trying to hold their currencies down, while
India, Chile and Turkey aren't.

"Why have officials in many emerging markets leaned against
appreciation of their currencies toward levels more consistent with
market fundamentals?" Mr. Bernanke asks. Mainly, he says, because they
are sticking to a long-term strategy of pushing for export-led growth
with cheap exchange rates.

"On its current economic trajectory the United States runs the risk of
seeing millions of workers unemployed or underemployed for years," Mr.
Bernanke warns. "As a society, we should find that outcome
unacceptable."

Conclusions

Well he could not stay Mum indefinitely and his Argument is quite
nuanced. Essentially He is signalling a much lower Dollar.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Dollar Index 78.66 -> Earlier this week, it touched 79.461, the
highest since late September.
Euro 1.3627 -> The euro rose to $1.3630 from $1.3521 in late North
American trading on Wednesday.
Pound 1.6031-> U.K. retail sales rose 0.5% in October.
Yen 83.46
Aussie 0.9856
Rand 6.9275

The euro rose Thursday, pushing the dollar down from near its best
levels since late September, after Irish officials said Dublin was
likely to accept a European Union–International Monetary Fund loan
worth “tens of billions” of euros.

“The announcement of an Irish deal, so far presented as primarily
related to Irish banks rather than to the Irish government’s fiscal
position, has unwound some of the worst fears in markets,” said Steven
Englander, a currency strategist at Citigroup. “Investors are not
fully convinced about the package and what it means for the rest of
Europe.” -> A Fair Point

Conclusions

There is a risk that Bernanke sinks the Dollar today.

Euro Dollar 5 Day chart INO 5 day chart  1.3629 Last
http://bit.ly/deyPwl

read more


World Equity Markets at a glance
World Of Finance

GM made a dramatic return to the stock market—with its shares closing
3.6% above the IPO price

read more


Alfred Eisenstaedt’s Century in Photographs New Yorker Photo Booth
Misc.


La Scala, Milan, 1932

There may have been only one occasion when Milan’s society gathered
for the gala première of Rimsky-Korsakov’s “The Legend of the
Invisible City of Kitezh,” but La Scala is one of those frequently
photographed places of beauty. Eisie’s photographs captured it but, as
he complained, they had no foreground. That’s when he spotted the
young lady, his foreground, and had his picture—one of his favorites.

read more


Spicing Up Thanksgiving WSJ
Misc.

He usually steers clear of the kinds of Thanksgiving sides that "tend
to be heavy on the palate and the belly," he says. Instead, he draws
on Asian, Southeast Asian, and Middle Eastern cuisines, as he does in
his restaurants, to make his sides more unusual. Mashed sweet potatoes
are mixed together with Japanese miso, for example, so that "the
richness and umami come from miso and allow you to not add so much
butter." Brussels sprouts are perked up with a Thai-inspired chili
caramel glaze made with lime and cilantro.

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities

"Sugar has re-established its reputation as arguably the most volatile
commodity," the International Sugar Organization said in a recent
report.

Benchmark March raw sugar futures on New York's ICE surged more than
8% intraday before closing at 28.15 cents a pound, up 1.68, or 6.4%.

Sugar July 2011 23.02 +1.94 (+8.39%) 1 Month Chart INO
http://bit.ly/d73hVl

Last Price    23.02
Open Int.    98768
Contract High    27.33  Contract High Date 2010-11-09
Contract Low    11.82
First Delivery    2011-09-15
Volume    16,773
Expiration    2011-06-30

Soft Commodities at a Glance INO Bounce with Vigour
http://bit.ly/9WHKQ8

Cocoa +3.93%
Coffee +4.84%
Cotton -3.05%

read more




Africa growth seen at 6 pct in 2011: AFDB president Reuters
Africa

Africa is likely to see gross domestic product growth of 6.0 percent
next year and 6.5 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, African Development
Bank President Donald Kaberuka said on Thursday.

"I think next year Africa will be growing at six percent. In
sub-Saharan Africa it will be six and a half percent," he told Reuters
in an interview, adding "Africa is coming out of the (global
financial) crisis stronger; it's developing a strong relationship with
emerging markets."

He said the bank was likely to borrow $3 billion to $3.5 billion on
international markets in 2011.

"We can borrow around three to three and a half billion (dollars) in
2011. We are going on a borrowing program shortly. We have no
difficulty raising funds," he said, adding that the bank was able to
secure funding below the London interbank offered rate. "We are back
to LIBOR minus," he said on the sidelines of a business forum, without
elaborating.

The AfBD said earlier this year that it expected growth of 5.2 percent
for next year, but a stronger than expected rebound led by demand for
the continent's commodities has confounded economists'
expectations.The continent would be back to its average GDP growth
trend of 6.0 percent reached during the decade before the financial
crisis, which slashed growth to 2.9 percent in 2009.Economists expect
Africa to grow by 5 percent this year.

The AFDB has tripled its capital base this year to $100 bln, giving it
greater fire power to tackle the huge infrastructure deficit faced by
countries across a continent of a billion people.

The AFDB's shareholders are Africa's 53 nations and 24 non-African
donor countries.

Low interest rates in developed market have encouraged investors to
look elsewhere to fast-growing, high-yield emerging and frontier
markets.

"Money is looking for yield," Kaberuka said.

read more


S.Africa's cbank cuts repo rate to 5.5 percent Reuters
World Of Finance

South Africa's Reserve Bank cut its repo rate by 50 basis points to
5.5 percent as expected on Thursday, as the economy struggles after
last year's recession and inflation remains within target.Thursday's
move adds to 600 basis points of reductions in interest rates since
December 2008 and leaves the repo rate at its lowest level since the
central bank introduced the measure in 1999.

Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus said the domestic economic recovery
remained fragile, with adverse global developments making the outlook
more uncertain but cautioned that the scope for further downward
movement in rates was limited.

Latest data from Statistics South Africa shows annual consumer
inflation slowed to a 5-year low of 3.2 percent in September, at the
low end of the central bank's 3-6 percent target range.Analysts said a
strong rand also gave the Reserve Bank leeway to cut rates, with the
currency gaining nearly 27 percent against the dollar since 2009,
largely due to large capital inflows as foreigners take up South
Africa's high-yielding assets.

Conclusions

A New Normal

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg Visual +14.125% 2010
Africa

Value31,574.00   
Change228.830    
% Change0.730

4.89% off its all Time High 33,232 20th May 2008.

read more


Ghana All Share Bloomberg Visual +24.71% 2010
Africa

Value6,949.69   
Change125.870    
% Change1.845

Conclusions

I am bullish about this Index over a 2 Year + Period.

read more


Paris Club and Brazil Cancel $7.35 Billion of Congo’s Debt Bloomberg
World Of Finance

The Paris Club of creditor nations plus Brazil cancelled $7.35 billion
of Democratic Republic of Congo’s external debt, almost all its
obligations with the group.

Congo called on its remaining creditors to write off their debts at a
similar ratio, the Paris Club said in a statement on its website late
yesterday. Congo’s debts totaled $13.7 billion at the end of 2009,
about the same size as its economy.

The World Bank and International Monetary Fund agreed to support debt
relief for Congo on July 2 under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
initiative. The IMF said last month that it expected the central
African nation’s debt to fall to about $3 billion by the end of this
year.The write offs will help Congo save about $520 million in debt
servicing costs each year, the budget ministry said in August. The
cancellations will allow Congo to open up new lines of credit and
increase infrastructure and social spending, Prime Minister Adolphe
Muzito said in a speech in July after Congo qualified for the relief.

Matata Ponyo, Congo’s Minister of Finance who led this week’s
delegation to Paris, did not answer his phone when called for comment.

In the statement, the Paris Club also expressed concern over Congo’s
business environment and urged the country to improve its governance,
strengthen the rule of law and fight corruption.

Congo ranked 175 out of 183 countries in the World Bank’s 2011 Doing
Business guide, which measures the ease of doing business in a
country.

Creditors are not obligated to cancel Congo’s debts under the HIPC
initiative. Congo’s debt office says that several private creditors
are considering suing the country for their debts or have already
begun litigation, a concern Congo raised at the Paris Club, the
statement said.

In one such case, a U.S.-based hedge fund has frozen more than $200
million of Congo’s assets in court cases around the world in an
attempt to collect a 1980s-era debt.

Conclusions

I was in Kinshasa earlier in the Year.

I took this Photograph of The Marche De Valeurs Twitpic Kinshasa
http://www.twitpic.com/1e7qd5

It was a little surreal, deserted except for the CEO who sat in this
little Office surrounded by paper.

read more


Nigeria military frees oil hostages AlJazeera
Law & Politics

The rescue operation involved a land, air and marine assault, sources
said Nigeria's military has rescued 19 hostages captured in the
country's oil-rich Niger delta region.

Those freed on Wednesday included two Americans, two Frenchmen, two
Indonesians and a Canadian taken from an Afren oil rig, eight
Nigerians abducted from an Exxon Mobil platform and four others,
security sources involved in the operation said.

"It was a land, air and marine assault. They have all been freed, all
19 of them," one of the sources told the Reuters news agency, asking
not to be named due to the sensitive nature of the operation.

The victims were all taken hostage in recent raids on oil facilities
in the southern region.

Watch This Jeff Koinange Niger Delta Jomo #Mindspeak RICH TV
http://bit.ly/9xBVqD

read more


Nigeria All share Bloomberg Visual +20.919% 2010
Africa

Value25,184.13   
Change-117.210    
% Change-0.463

read more


Kenya Shilling versus US Dollar ForexPros Live 80.143
World Currencies

Conclusions

Traded through 80.00 Yesterday and Bulls will target 78.00 on the charts.

read more


Nairobi All share Bloomberg Visual +44.996% 2010
Africa

Value84.33   
Change0.330    
% Change0.393

Conclusions

I think the Pull Back has now completed.

read more


Kenya Power KPLC rights issue opens on December 1
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Shareholders of power distributor Kenya Power and Lighting Company
will have the chance to buy more shares of the firm starting December
1, when the company’s rights issue is expected to commence.

The Capital Markets Authority Thursday approved KPLC’s capital
restructuring plan, which will see the government hold a majority
(50.1 per cent) stake in the company as a strategy to ease the firm’s
access to debt financing for its capital intensive projects.

Given the 488,630,245 new shares on offer, it is expected that the
rights issue, which is expected to raise between Sh7 billion to Sh10
billion, will be priced between Sh14 and Sh20.

KPLC share price data and Analysis www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/BLiwX

Par Value:                  20/-
Closing Price:          219.00
Total Shares Issued:          79,128,000
Market Capitalization:        17,329M
EPS:            46.97
PE:                4.663

The energy company in charge of national transmission, distribution
and retail of electricity throughout Kenya.
KPLC Proposed share Capital Restructuring Announcement Details as Follows
1. Redemption of 794,962,491 7.85% Non-Cumulative Preference shares
owned by the Government of Kenya. GOK will be issued with 76,622,891
Ordinary shares.
= 155,750,891 which means Dilution 50.804% Dilution of Ordinary Shareholders.
2. 8-1 Split Total shares in Issue will then be 155,750,891 x 8 =
1.246007128b shares
3. A Rights Issue
Rights Issue [Where GOK will forgo its rights] where 488,630,245 New
Shares will be offerred in the Ratio of 20 for every 51 held.

KPLC rights issue priced at 19.5 shillings Reuters
http://bit.ly/a7GcLP

Kenya's sole power distributor said on Friday it had priced its rights
issue at 19.5 shillings for each new share.Kenya Power and Lighting is
issuing 488.6 million new ordinary shares after restructuring its
capital base to convert preference shares held by the government.As
part of the restructuring KPLC is carrying an eight for one split of
the existing shares. Kenya Power shares closed Thursday's trading
session at 219 shillings each.The government will not participate in
the rights issue, which will leave it holding a 50.1 percent stake.

Conclusions

Looks Expensive at first Glance.

read more





 
 
N.S.E Today

The NSE20 closed 25.05 points higher at 4580.33 and cutting its
retracement from its 2010 High to 2.65% and the Correction was shallow
and looks complete.
The NASI was up 0.21 points to close at 100.73 and is up around 45%
Year To Date.
Market Cap was 1.201724 Trillion versus 1.199173 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was more feisty and vigorous with shares worth
645.412m versus 356.394m last time.
EABL closed at its 5th Consecutive All Time High and on very heavy
Volume of 1.187m shares worth 267.142m. KPLC reacted higher on the
Announcement that the Rights Issue shares will be sold at 19.5.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kakuzi traded 11,000 shares and was unchanged at 83.00.
Sasini Tea firmed 10 cents to close at 13.80 and traded 45,900 shares.
Rea Vipingo eased 2.64% to close at 16.55 and traded 32,200 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     16,634,100
total turnover     75,547,056
avg price     4.54 Closing Price 4.50 Unchanged
high price     4.60
low price     4.50
last price     4.50

Conclusions

Safaricom was the 2nd most active share and closed unchanged on good
volume of 16.634m shares. Safaricom trades on a Trailing PE of 11.84
and accelerated Earnings 15% 1st Half. The Price looks oversold and is
due a Bounce.

Kenya Airways rallied 2.9411% to close at 43.75 and traded 112,000
shares. Kenya Airways saw Strong Demand at 42.00 [which equates on a
Straight Line Basis to a Forward PE of about 6.75]. Kenya Airways was
trading at 44.25 +4.12% session Highs into the Close.

Kenya Airways share price data and 1st Half Results here www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/ax6Ydy

CMC Holdings bounced 1.923% to close at 13.25 and traded 600,600 shares.
CarGen did not trade.

Access Kenya retreated a further 0.604% to close at 16.45 and traded
146,300 shares. Access Kenya is down 23.053% over a 1 Year Period and
45 cents off its 2010 Low of 16.00.

Nation traded 3,100 shares at an unchanged 167.00.
Standard snapped back 8.235% to close at 46.00 and traded 8,500
shares. Its a Thin Float and it tends to move about a great deal
because of that.

Scangroup closed 3.1% lower at 62.50 but on just 9.900 shares.

TPS Serena traded 8,000 shares at an unchanged 68.00.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank was unchanged at 26.25 and traded a 26.25-26.50 range and
1.539m shares worth 40.638m. 27.50 is the 2010 High and for now we are
capped below that Level. Market Chatter [and I cannot confirm yet] is
that Equity underwrote 50% of the KPLC's Rights Issue.
KCB firmed 1.114% to close at 22.00 and traded a 21.75-22.50 range and
1.692m shares worth 37.249m.KCB trades on an Implied Forward of less
than 8.00 and I think the Full Year Results will trigger a sharp Re
Rating.
Standard Chartered firmed 1.107% to close at 274.00 and traded 5,200 shares.
COOP Bank was unchanged at 19.95 and traded 1.4m shares. COOP Bank
seems in equilibrium here for now.
Barclays Bank traded unchanged at 63.00 with 138,100 shares changing hands.

CFC StanBic eased a Shilling to close at 85.00 and traded 20,600
shares. Shareholders will soon have the Opportunity to unlock value
via the Listing of shares in the Life Business.
DTB rowed back 2 shillings to close at 133.00 and traded 45,600 shares.
HFCK traded 55,500 shares and was unchanged at 26.75.
NBK traded 6,200 shares and closed 25 cents better at 38.75.
NIC traded 37,600 shares and closed at 48.00.

Centum retreated 2.15% to close at 22.75 and traded 49,100 shares.

Jubilee bounced 1.54% to close at 197.00 and traded 10,100 shares.
Kenya Re was unchanged at 11.45 on 114,800 shares.
PanAfric did not trade.

Olympia Capital traded 2,100 shares and closed at 6.60.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was the most active share at the Bourse closing at 225.00 +0.45%
and its 5th Consecutive All Time Close which is as bullish a chart
Sequence as you will see. EABL traded a 225.00-226.00 range and 1.187m
shares worth 267.142m. SABMiller's 1st Half Results probably lent
further Impetus to the Buy Side which is dominated by Foreign
Investors.

EABL share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/57wrgL

KPLC issued Details about the Pricing of its Rights Issue and will be
selling  488.6 million new ordinary shares at a price of 19.5
shillings. The Rights Issue has been 50% underwritten. KPLC rallied
2.736% to close at 225.00. KPLC traded a 219.00-228.00 range and
257,700 shares worth 57.987m. All the Announcements for KPLC can be
located here http://bit.ly/BLiwX
KenGen firmed 0.57% to close at 17.65 and was trading at 17.75 +1.14%
into the Close. KenGen traded 269,100 shares worth 4.751m.
Cables closed lower at 17.90 and traded 18,300 shares.

Bamburi Cement firmed 0.51% to close at 196.00 and traded a
196.00-203.00 range and 244,700 shares worth 47.966m.
ARM was unchanged at 175.00 and traded 138,300 shares worth 24.227m.
ARM has been trading a Multiple of its Historic Volume moving Average
in the 2nd Half of 2010 and that coupled with PP's comment sin
Washington indicate there is probably a New and Determined Buyer on
the Register.
Portland traded 700 shares at 105.00 -2.78%.

BAT announced a 10/- Interim Dividend yesterday after the market
closed. BAT eased 0.69% to close at 288.00 and traded 1,700 shares.

BAT share price data and Interim Dividend Announcement Here share data
www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/aJsT6n

Sameer Africa was unchanged at 6.40 and transacted 81,900 shares and
retreated just over 20% this Week after issuing a Profits warning
Friday last after the Market closed.

The Profits warning and Sameer share price data here
http://bit.ly/dCsksT

KenolKobil closed at 10.45 and traded 145,500 shares.
Total traded 29,000 shares and firmed 25 cents to close at 29.25.

Carbacid traded 9,500 shares and was unchanged at 150.00
BOC Kenya traded 900 shares and was unchanged at 140.00.
Crown Berger closed at 35.00 with 5,300 shares traded.
Eveready closed at 3.10 and traded 19,300 shares.
Unga traded 11,500 shares and closed at 11.80.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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