www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

The Star Standard and Poor's Upgrades Kenya to B+
http://bit.ly/g0LxU3

What is #Mindspeak ?
http://bit.ly/9mhe39

#Mindspeak Saturday 27th November 0930
Silverbird Cinema 1 WestGate Mall
Liza Mucheru-Wisner
http://lizawisner.com/wordpress/

I met up with Liza yesterday at the Muthaiga Golf Club Twitpic
http://twitpic.com/3a378z

My Brother in law Sajeed who lives in South Africa and with whom we
stayed with during the World Cup called me yesterday and said

'Aly-Khan How has this happened?'

'You get interviewed by all these attractive Women who ask you for
your Opinion?'

I said 'Do You hear me complaining?'

Followed by 4th December where We are hosting Bob Collymore the CEO of Safaricom

Macro Thoughts

The mere Perturbation of a Butterflys Wing could Tip Things.

Home Thoughts

My Little One Hannah is very poorly. I find that as a Parent I am very
poorly equipped to handle my Children's illnesses. I feel helpless.
And She is so little and gets so hot and She really is like the Finest
Diamond in my Life. I prayed that Prayer that I found on a Plate
[which my Mother had prayed over me and her Mother over her] and
thought of

Humayun and his Father Babur and The Story goes
http://bit.ly/igmoCl

There is a story about Baber,the founder of Mughal empire like
this.Once young Humayun became very sick and his condition became
hopeless.The King loving his son so much and he was the only heir to
the throne walked around Humayun’s sick bed three times and prayed
that his son’s sickness would be transferred to him instead so that
Humayun would live and he would die in his place.The story tells
Humayun lived and Baber became sick and died as he wished.

China must surely see that this regime flirts with war as an
instrument of diplomacy and that its desire to shock the world into
negotiating with it requires ever greater outrages. Ultimately, this
pattern of behaviour threatens the very stability China craves.
China’s alliance with North Korea thus undermines not just its image
as a global power but also its own interests.

Conclusions

Aly-Khan Satchu wrote:
Nov 26th 2010 4:10 GMT

The Embedded Narrative Fallacy is that somehow the Chinese are losing
'Patience' with North Korea. Please save us this deluded Naivete.
North Korea is China's Attack Dog and a near perfect Instrument with
which China can show Asia the Price that will be exacted for siding
with the US. We are in a Period of Roll Back of the US Footprint in
Asia, North Korea is China's Agent.

On another Tangent. Who sold more than $1b worth of South Korean
Equities just before this all broke?

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke
Nairobi

King Abdullah, who is thought to be 87 years old and has occupied the
throne since 2005, is in an American hospital being treated for a
herniated disc. His operation is said to have gone well. Still, he
took the precaution of formally charging his half-brother, Crown
Prince Sultan, with responsibility for the kingdom in his absence. Yet
Sultan, who has served as defence minister since 1962, is also unwell.
Thought to be at least 82, he has spent the past several years trying
to recover from a serious illness, believed to be cancer.

Conclusions

Aly-Khan Satchu wrote:
Nov 26th 2010 7:32 GMT

The Thing about Leadership by Gerontocracy is that it inevitably
shuffles off this Mortal Coil.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

Euro 1.3301
Pound 1.5716
Yen 83.83
Rand 7.0708
India Rupee 44.72
Brazil Real 1.7163
South Korean Won 1159.30
Aussie 0.9830

Ahead of the Weekend - We could see Further Dollar Strength. Its all
about Matters Geopolitical now.

Euro Dollar loses its Grip on 1.33 INO
http://bit.ly/cpSAgf

I would prefer to own some 1 Touch Deep Out of the Money Puts on the Won.

Value1,911.78   
Change-15.900    
% Change-0.825

Conclusions

Sell Out of the Money Calls.

South Korean Stocks Slump as North Korea Pledges Retaliation Bloomberg
http://bit.ly/gUeJ1Q

South Korean stocks slumped, dragging down the Kospi Index by the most
in two weeks after North Korea warned that any “escalated
confrontation” will lead to war.

The Kospi sank 1.3 percent, the most since Nov. 11, to 1,902.48 as of
2:23 p.m. in Seoul. Declines deepened after KCNA, North Korea’s state
news agency, said in a statement e-mailed to news organizations that
the North is “greatly enraged at the provocation” from South Korea and
it will retaliate to any encroachment of its sovereignty.

“This is quite serious in term of magnitude,” said Jim McCafferty, a
Hong Kong-based Asia research product manager for Royal Bank of
Scotland Group Plc. “If there were to be a significant retaliation
from South Korea, you could see a change in growth because they could
have to spend a lot on military. Across the board, it does tend to
have a negative impact on markets.”

Conclusions

Markets have still a 'casual' Price of the Risk.

Facebook Inc.’s surging valuation is spurring shareholders to slice
and dice their stock, giving investors everywhere from Silicon Valley
to Wall Street a chance to bet on the company.

EB Exchange Funds LLC, based in San Francisco, as well as New York
firms Felix Investments LLC and GreenCrest Capital LLC, have opened
Facebook funds for investors looking to get a piece of the
social-networking company and its half-billion users.

By creating derivatives of the stock, the investment firms are helping
Facebook keep its shareholder count at 499 or less, the maximum number
a company can have before it has to disclose results to the public.
They’re also potentially creating a new class of assets for investors,
letting them tap fast-growing private companies like Twitter Inc.,
Zynga Game Network Inc. and LinkedIn Corp. -- all valued in the
billions of dollars.

“It’s proving to be a really effective way for accredited investors to
invest in private companies,” said Larry Albukerk, founder of EB
Exchange Funds. “I don’t necessarily know if it’s a good investment or
not -- I just know people want to invest and we provide a means for
them to do that.”

Facebook, based in Palo Alto, California, has more than tripled in
value since March to $40.7 billion, according to SharesPost Inc., an
exchange for private companies. Zynga, the creator of online games
such as “FarmVille” and “FrontierVille,” is worth $5.4 billion, and
social-networking service Twitter is at $3.4 billion. SharesPost
values professional-networking site LinkedIn at $2 billion.

EB Exchange is buying as much as $15 million in Facebook shares for a
limited liability company that’s open to outside investors, according
to a Nov. 1 letter to prospective shareholders obtained by Bloomberg.
While Albukerk confirmed that he created the LLC entity, he declined
to comment on whether it’s investing in Facebook, citing regulatory
restrictions that limit what he can say. A U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission filing from October says EB Exchange is raising
$15 million for a “pooled investment fund.”

According to the investor letter, units in the LLC are offered in
$10,000 multiples, with a minimum investment of $100,000. EB Exchange
makes money by charging a 5 percent fee to enter the LLC and then
another 5 percent when the shares are distributed after an initial
public offering or acquisition. An LLC can have no more than 99
participants.

“There are quite a large number of institutions, large and small, that
missed the boat or missed the opportunity to invest in Facebook when
Facebook was going through their capital- raising campaigns,” said
Rahav, an Israeli who moved to the U.S. 15 years ago. “They’re facing
the challenges of identifying blocks of shares, negotiating a price
and going through the negotiating process with Facebook.”

Conclusions

I said it was cheap for the longest Time.

Will Trade new All Time Highs before End December.

COCOA CC.Z10.E    Dec 2010  2765      -0.36%   
COFFEE KC.Z10.E    Dec 2010  207.15-1.55%   
COTTON CT.Z10.E    Dec 2010  119.39+5.21%   
SUGAR #11-WORLD Mar 2011  27.95 +2.60%  

Picasso broke the auction record for a work of art in May when a 1932
lilac-hued oil painting of his young mistress, Marie-Therese Walter,
entitled “Nude, Green Leaves and Bust,” sold for a $106.5 million in
New York at Christie’s. Many of the artist’s later works appeal to
collectors in Asia, said Ken Yeh, Christie’s International Plc Asia
chairman.

Ethiopia has evidence that Egypt recently aided rebel movements in the
country, said the State Minister for Communications, Shimeles
Kemal.The allegation of Egyptian support for outlawed Ethiopian groups
was first made by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in an interview with
Reuters on Nov. 23. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has denied the
claims.

“We have solid evidence that Egypt is giving covert assistance to
rebel groups,” Shimeles said in a phone interview today. “We will
disclose the timing and identify the groups at the right time.”

Ethiopia faces insurgencies in the eastern Ogaden region from the
Ogaden National Liberation Front, and from the Oromo Liberation Front
in Oromia, the largest of its nine federal states. Last month, the
government signed a peace deal with a faction of the ONLF, though
another faction has since claimed attacks. The OLF said yesterday it
had killed 90 soldiers in the past five weeks. Shimeles said the claim
was an “outright lie.”

Ethiopia and Egypt are locked in a dispute over water usage from the
Nile river. Agreements from the colonial era give Egypt the right to
use two-thirds of the water from the river.

Senegal is seeking credit ratings from Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s
Investors Service to help lure investors to its planned sale of $500
million of Eurobonds during the first half of next year.

“We have been in contact with them in the context of getting ratings
ahead of the sale,” finance ministry spokesman Ousmane Gueye said by
phone from the capital, Dakar, adding the it hadn’t made any decisions
on the debt’s coupon or maturity.

Senegal is taking advantage of investor demand for higher- yielding
emerging-market debt borrowing costs. Its $200 million of 8.75 percent
bonds due in December 2014 have rallied since their sale last year,
reducing the yield to 8.062 percent by the close of trading
yesterday.Ghana’s dollar bonds due in 2017, which have the same B+
non-investment grade ranking from Fitch Ratings, yield less at 5.89
percent.

“We are seeing strong appetite for emerging-market primary issuance,”
Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist at Exotix Ltd., said by phone from
London today. Senegal’s decision last year to sell debt in December
“came as a relative surprise to the market and was in a quiet period,
working against them. Giving advance warning for the first half of
next year should get more favorable terms, and looking at where
similarly-rated sovereigns are trading, I would imagine it could be
closer to 6.5 percent.”

Yields on emerging-market debt have declined as investors in developed
nations seek alternatives to near-zero interest rates. The extra yield
investors demand to own developing countries’ bonds instead of U.S.
Treasuries has fallen to 2.46 percentage points, JPMorgan Chase &
Co.’s EMBI+ Index shows. That’s from as much as 8.65 percentage points
in October 2008, when the world economy headed toward recession after
the collapse of subprime mortgages a year earlier.

Senegal’s economy is likely to grow by 4 to 5 percent annually until
2014, according to the International Monetary Fund. The country, whose
population is about 94 percent Muslim, is considering selling Islamic
bonds to strengthen ties with investors in the Middle East, said
Birahim Seck, chief executive officer of Dakar-based SYM International
Finance Corp., which advises Middle Eastern investors in Africa, on
Nov. 9.

Its B+ rating is Fitch’s fourth-highest non-investment grade level and
is the same as assessments for Ghana, Kenya and Georgia. Senegal isn’t
rated at Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s.

Conclusions

There is an outsize Appetite for African Sovereign Credit.

Ghana announced on Thursday it expected the first oil from its Jubilee
offshore field to be pumped on December 17, in line with earlier
forecasts that it would take its place as a major oil producer by
year-end.

"First oil is expected December 17 and the government and all the
Jubilee partners are looking forward to this day," Deputy Information
Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa told Reuters.

The field is operated by UK-listed Tullow Oil and is estimated to hold
up to 1.8 billion barrels with a lifespan of 20 years.

Tullow confirmed on Thursday production start-up was on target and
that testing of machinery so far had been successful.

"We are ready to pump first oil any moment from the first week of
December," a senior Tullow manager told Reuters.

The population of African cities is set to triple over the next 40
years according to a report by UN-HABITAT.The report entitled The
State of African Cities 2010: Governance, Inequalities and Urban Land
Markets shows Africa facing a remarkable rise in urban
population.Cairo is set to grow by 23% over the next 15 years with a
projected figure of 13.5 million inhabitants by 2025. Lagos in Nigeria
and Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo rank in second
and third place of Africa's highest urban agglomerations.

UN HABITAT have stated that by 2050, 60% of Africans will be living in
cities. Joan Clos, the Executive Director of UN-HABITAT, said: "No
African government can afford to ignore the ongoing rapid urban
transition taking place across the continent. Cities must become
priority areas for public policies, with hugely increased investments
to build adequate governance capacities, equitable services delivery,
affordable housing provision and better wealth distribution."

Africa's top 20 urban agglomerations
http://bit.ly/eec5Bg
   
SOURCE: UNHABITATION.ORG
                                        2005        2010        2025
1     Cairo     Egypt     10,565     11,001     13,531    
2     Lagos     Nigeria     8,767     10,578     15,810    
3     Kinshasa     DRC             7,106     8,754     15,041    
4     Luanda     Angola     3,533     4,772     8,077    
5     Alexandria Egypt     3,973     4,387     5,648    
6     Abidjan                     3,564     4,125     6,321    
7     Johannesburg             3,263     3,670     4,127    
8     Nairobi     Kenya     2,814     3,523     6,246    
9     Cape Town             3,091     3,405     3,824    
10     Kano     Nigeria     2,993     3,395     5,060    
11     Dar es Salaam             2,680     3,349     6,202    
12     Casablanca             3,138     3,284     4,065    
13     Ekurhuleni             2,824     3,202     3,614    
14     Addis Ababa             2,633     2,930     4,757    
15     Durban                     2,638     2,879     3,241    
16     Dakar     Senegal     2,434     2,863     4,338    
17     Ibadan     Nigeria     2,509     2,837     4,237    
18     Algiers     Algeria     2,512     2,800     3,595    
19     Accra     Ghana     1,985     2,342     3,497    
20     Douala     Cameroon     1,767     2,125     3,131

CFC Stanbic Financial Services has launched an automated share trading
platform, raising the bar for players in the capital markets as the
race for computerisation of brokerage operations gathers pace.The
system will allow investors to trade directly by linking them to the
stock exchange’s Automated Trading System in real time.The new
platform breaks new boundaries for Kenyan investors, as it goes beyond
the online trade order and short message (SMS) services currently
offered by other players such as Dyer and Blair, Standard Investment
Bank and African Alliance.Investors will be able to cut on the trading
cycle from the current two to three days, said Nkoregamba Mwebesa, the
managing director.

“Deals will not have to be verified in the brokers’ back offices but
investors would be using this platform which is linked to the ATS,
making them their own brokers,” he said, adding that the new system
would increase investor participation levels.

“We can quadruple the number of people trading in shares at the stock
exchange if we make use of the installed communication
infrastructure,” said Mr Mwebesa,

Once again, Opera have released their latest State of the Mobile Web
(SMW) report, and this time for October 2010. The latest SMW report
has a broad range of usage statistics but, as always, what really
interests me for this blog is the SMW for Kenya.

Since the last two reports, when Kenya had (initially) cracked the
global top ten on the mobile web and even overtook Nigeria (albeit
briefly). Since then, Kenya has lost a few positions and now sits in
the top 20 which is still indicative of its leading mobile web
credentials in Africa, and the rest of the world.  In addition,
Nigeria raced back into the top ten where South Africa has always been
present from the continent.

Opera Mini continues to gain global appeal as a leading mobile web
browser and is now also available on Apple’s iPhone as well as Google
Android powered handsets. Opera Mini is hugely popular since it
compresses “heavy” web content on Opera’s servers before it delivering
it to mobile handsets as “light” and mobile web friendly content. In
some cases, as much 90% of data can be compressed meaning sites can be
loaded quickly, even if they NOT mobile web optimized. In addition,
another major upside is that data costs for end-users can be reduced
significantly (this is especially important in markets like Kenya
where 3G is not only costly but rare amongst the various mobile
networks so bandwidth is indeed at a premium)

In terms of the latest SMW statistics for Kenya, what remains more or
less constant is that mobile web page views per user are still the
highest in Africa, ahead of South Africa and Nigeria.  This has grown
to a formidable 651 page views per user per month which goes to
reinforce that most popular of statements once made by Safaricom’s
former CEO, Michael Joseph, that Kenyans have “peculiar” phone usage
habits (in this case they love to browse the mobile web more than any
other country in Africa!).

Other Kenya SMW statistics indicate that year on year growth for
October 2009/10 has exceeded 100% in almost all instances and
variables. Kenyans (now) on average download 7 MB of data per month
and Facebook is still the leading mobile web destination on Opera
Mini.

Snapshot: Kenya

    * Page-view growth since October 2009: 175.4 %
    * Unique-user growth since October 2009: 117.3 %
    * Data transfer growth since October 2009: 159.7 %
    * Page views per user: 651
    * Data transferred per user (MB): 7
    * Data transferred per page view (KB): 10

Top 10 sites in Kenya (unique users)

  1. facebook.com
  2. google.com
  3. wikipedia.org (4)
  4. yahoo.com (3)
  5. youtube.com
  6. waptrick.com
  7. bbc.co.uk
  8. getjar.com
  9. my.opera.com
  10. nation.co.ke

The NSE20 closed 56.84 points lower at 4471.42 and some 4.973% off its
2010 High.
The NASI fell 0.71 points to close at 98.9175.
Market cap was 1.180015 Trillion versus 1.188499 Trillion last time.
Equity Turnover was 334.224m.
KPLC slumped 13.513% following on a 6% fall Yesterday and we sit about
23% above the Rights Issue Price and might well converge there. See
Below Patrick Nyoike's comments.

Rea Vipingo rallied 8.33% to close at 17.55 and traded 27,200 shares.
It had been sold down on little Volume.
Sasini Tea closed at 12.65 and traded 6,000 shares.
Kakuzi traded 900 shares and closed at 84.00.

SAFARICOM

shares volume     9,926,200
total turnover     45,596,312
avg price     4.59 Closing Price 4.55 +1.01%
high price     4.65
low price     4.50
last price     4.55

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 3rd at the Bourse and closed firmer at 4.55.Demand
outweighs Supply by 2-1 and the Price at a Trailing PE of under 12.00
looks oversold. The Price, I venture, has an Irrational Price War
priced into it and I think on balance, that a Bleed Rate of $80m in
three Months through September [Airtel Africa] has effectively called
Time on that. Sure Prices have been repriced in Voice but I think the
'irrational' Part is close to Expiry and hence too much built into the
Price.

Kenya Airways reversed course to close 2.12% easier at 46.00 and
traded 183,500 shares. Kenya Airways bounced 10% from the 42.00 area
post the Release of its 1st Half Results. A Great Deal of Business was
transacted at the 42.00 area. If the 2nd Half is on Par with the 1st,
It looks very attractively priced.

Access Kenya bounced 0.958% to close at 15.80 and traded 26,200
shares. Access Kenya closed at a 52 week Low of 15.55 earlier this
week.

CMC Holdings eased back 0.76% to close at 13.05 on brisk volume of
580,200 shares.
CarGen did not trade.

ScanGroup closed unchanged at 60.50 and traded 28,800 shares.

TPS Serena eased 50 cents to close at 68.00 and traded 14,500 shares.

Nation was unchanged at 160.00 and traded 700 shares.
Standard closed a shilling lower at 43.00 and traded 300 shares.

Housing Finance was the most actively traded share at the Nairobi
Bourse. HFCK firmed 0.96% to close at 26.25 and traded a 26.00-26.50
range and 3.318m shares [1.4426% of its Issued Shares]  worth 87.111m.

Housing Finance share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/4zwdM5

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          26.00
Total Shares Issued:          230,000,000
Market Capitalization:        5,980M
EPS:            1.02
PE:                25.490

Equity Bank traded 4th. Equity Bank was unchanged at 25.75 and traded
a 25.75-26.00 range and 1.694m shares worth 43.864m and that well be
the Supply overhang Cleared.
COOP Bank closed 3.03% lower at 19.15 and traded 478,100 shares. COOP
Bank printed a 21.50 All Time High last Month and has retraced from
that Level.
KCB eased 2.29% to close at 21.25 and traded 349,000 shares. KCB is
trading on an egregious Forward PE now.
Barclays Bank eased 0.79% to close at 62.50 and traded 32,200 shares.
StanChart traded 21,700 shares and eased back a shilling to close at 270.00.

Centum closed at 24.50 and traded 167,100 shares. Centum reported a
sharp Rebound in its 1st Half Earnings this week and gave back 2% of
the Spike today.

DTB was unchanged at 134.00 and traded a 133.00-135.00 range and
101,300 shares worth 13.67m.
CFC StanBic retreated 2.409% to close at 81.00 and traded 2,700 shares.
NBK traded 31,900 shares and closed 25 cents better at 38.50.
NIC reported strong 3rd Quarter Results putting the Forward just into
Single Digits. NIC was unchanged at 48.50 and traded 74,300 shares.

Kenya Re firmed 0.43% to close at 11.60 and traded 516,100 shares.
PanAfric traded 25,000 shares and all at 71.00 +0.709%.
Jubilee did not trade.

Olympia Capital did not trade.

Kenya Power slumped 13.513% [following on yesterdays 6%+ Reversal] to
close at 24.00 and was trading at 22.50 -18.92% session Lows into the
Close. KPLC traded a 22.50-26.00 and 258,800 shares worth 6.217m. The
Rights Price is 19.50 and we are now converging in that direction.
Patrick Nyoike said that KPLC needs to spend $500 million to upgrade
and expand its network over the next four years. "That will leave a
shortfall of 15 billion shillings" post the Rights Issue said Patrick
Nyoike. Mr Nyoike flushed out the Weak Longs as they took fright at
his comments.
KPLC traded a high of 30.50 this week but has retreated sharply now from there.
KenGen slipped 1.74% to close at 16.95 and traded 186,800 shares.
Cables closed lower at 16.55 and traded 23,600 shares.

Kenya Power Announcements Schedules share data here www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/BLiwX

EABL was the 2nd  most actively traded Share at the Bourse. EABL was
unchanged at 216.00 and traded a 216.00-217.00 range and 236,900
shares worth 51.318m. EABL traded an All Time High of 226.00 on Monday
and has eased 4.44% off 225.00 its Record Closing High. EABL remains
in a Bull Channel and the process of Profit taking might be nearing
its End.

Portland was marked down 7.407% to close at 100.00 and traded just 200 shares.
ARM closed down 2 at 172.00 and traded 47,600 shares.
Bamburi Cement traded 2,500 shares at an unchanged 196.00.

Mumias Sugar closed 2% lower at 9.80 and traded light with 265,000
shares traded.

KenolKobil turned 5 cents higher to close at 10.10 and traded 560,600 shares.
Total traded 3,800 shares and closed at 29.25.

BAT traded 8,900 shares at 280.00 and unchanged.

Carbacid was marked down 2.66% to close at 146.00 and traded 1,800 shares.
BOC Kenya did not trade.
Crown Berger traded 2,000 shares and closed at 32.50.
Eveready firmed 5 cents to close at 3.05 and traded 27,400 shares.
Sameer was unchanged at 6.80 and traded 9,900 shares.
Unga traded 69,000 shares and closed at 11.20.