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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 03rd of November 2010
 
Morning
Africa

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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

It was a Pleasure to catch up William Wallis The Africa Editor of the
Financial Times.

Exploring The State of the #Now Follow #Kenya #Stock market in Real
time for Free Register www.rich.co.ke GOTO RICHLIVE
http://www.twitpic.com/16c49q

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

What is #Mindspeak ?
http://bit.ly/9mhe39

Have you seen Jeff Koinange's #Mindspeak Session
http://bit.ly/1mPS6v

Its outrageously Good.

Part 1 Jeff and Oprah
http://bit.ly/ccmBmx

Part 2 Mend A Man called Jomo
http://bit.ly/9xBVqD

Macro Thoughts

Its all about the Number today QE2 Bernanke Fed. I think the Market
can tolerate a Programme of $500b.

Home Thoughts

My sense of Parental Responsibility has started to track a great deal
higher since My Aysha turned 13 and with Layla snapping only 364 days
behind her. I find myself sometimes staying very still on the Sofa
trying to discern threads of my Childrens' Lives. I see a whole lot
more Risks and want to remain a good Friend and make sure I remain
informed.  Note I did not say Best Friend because that would just not
be very Cool in their World. My Mother was very spiritual and
eclectic. She felt There was nothing wrong with her praying in a
Mosque or in a Church and I agree with her and have a visceral
reaction to anyone who starts telling me They are on the Right Path
and Everyone else is wrong. I have never been able to abide that
Departure Point. Anyway, My Mother used to pray a Prayer in my Ear
every Day and I found it written on a Plate [with a Translation which
is helpful] . And all these Years later, I find myself carrying this
Plate about in the early Morning reading it over each child and
somehow feeling very connected to Mum and I  somehow believe I am
getting her in on the Oversight Committee. [I told You that My Brother
Jamil befriended My daughters and Nishet on Facebook and to date is My
Overseer on that Field]. The Kids of course, are unable to raise
themselves from their Slumber and ask [which I am sure they would]

'Dad What exactly are you doing?'

But You know I am having a wonderful time because their Cheeks are all
warm and their Eyes sleepy and I feel somehow as if I am connecting
them right through the Generations.

read more


Republicans sweep US House Al Jazeera
Law & Politics

Opposition Republicans have scored major victories in the country's
midterm elections by taking control over the House of Representatives
from the Democrats and scoring impressive gains in the Senate, which
delivered a stinging blow to Barack Obama's presidency.On Tuesday,
Republicans captured 57 seats formerly held by Democrats in the House,
exceeding the 39 needed to gain a majority. Meanwhile, Democrats
picked up only two seats from the conservative party.Following the
poll victory, Republican congressman John Bohner was designated to
replace Nancy Pelosi as the speaker for the US House of
Representatives.He said the election results were a signal of a
growing movement against the ruling administration's policies in the
country.

"Across the country right now, we are witnessing a repudiation of
Washington, a repudiation of big government, and a repudiation of
politicians who refuse to listen to the people,'' Boehner said.

Obama called Boehner to say he looked forward to working with him and
the Republicans "to find common ground, move the country forward and
get things done for the American people,'' the White House said.

Republican Michael Kirk won the Illinois senate seat, which Obama had
held before his presidential election [Reuters]

Conclusions

Its a Rout, I am afraid.

read more


THE ROVING EYE The day Obama dreamed of being Lula Pepe Escobar Asia Times
Law & Politics

It's the economy, stupid. Obama could only dream of surfing the
economic indicators of the Lula years; per capita income growing by
23% from 2002 to 2010; unemployment at a record low of 6.2%; the
minimum wage, adjusted for inflation, growing by 65% - not to mention
more than 20 million people lifted from poverty and becoming middle
class (compare to 40 million Americans been plunged into the poverty
line). As much as the American Dream is in Emergency Room, the
Brazilian Dream feels like Camelot remixed as a telenovela (with a
happy Hollywood ending). Who are these new South American dreamers who
voted Dilma? Essentially the urban working class, the sub-proletariat
of the poor northeast region, the new lower middle class and some
substantial, progressive portions of the classic middle class.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.4021 I think we might look at 1.4376
Pound 1.6021
Yen 80.62
Aussie 0.9967 retreats from above Parity
Rand 6.87 - Was a Great Buy above 7.00
Real 1.7037

Conclusions

Thin Trading ahead of the QE Announcement

Euro versus Dollar INO 1.4020
http://bit.ly/bkZ8Eg

Looking for 1.4376 now.

read more



Dodging Mexico Mayhem, Latinas Brave Arizona Posse, Find Beauty Bloomberg
Tourism, Travel & Transport

When staying in a desert, the best way to pick a hotel is by checking
out photos of the swimming pools. Those at the Hyatt, which charged a
very reasonable $150 a night including taxes, are every bit as
good-looking in person. Numerous streams of water cascade from
pillars, creating a cooling mist to escape the 115-degree heat.
Elegant palm trees supplied more-than- adequate shade. A three-story
water slide and poolside movies at night entertained the kids.

The pools at the Hyatt Regency Scottsdale Resort and Spa in
Scottsdale, Arizona. The pools feature water cascading from side
outlets and night-lit pillars, providing a cool respite from 115
degree, August heat. Source: Hyatt Regency Scottsdale via Bloomberg

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities

Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled up 95 cents, or 1.2%,
at $83.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest
closing price since May 3.

read more




Soft Commodities at a Glance INO
Commodities

Cocoa +1.5%
Coffee +0.90%
Cotton +2.64% New 140 Year High
Sugar cross 30.00 at 30.12 Last

Cotton Dec 2010 1 Year Chart INO 137.81 +2.64%
http://bit.ly/b345EU

Last Price    137.81
Open Int.    108355
Contract High    134.26
Contract Low    53.87
First Delivery    2010-12-21
Contract High Date    2010-11-02
Contract Low Date    2009-03-09
Expiration    2010-12-07

Conclusions

Still Higher

Sugar March 2011 30.12 +0.67 (+2.22%) INO
http://bit.ly/d0M5gN

Last Price    30.12
Open Int.    270899
Contract High    30.64
Contract Low    11.9
First Delivery    2011-05-15
Expiration    2011-02-28

Conclusions

I got this Move spectacularly Right though I say it myself.

read more


Modigliani Sells for $69 Million at Sotheby’s in Artist Record Bloomberg
Misc.

An Amedeo Modigliani 1917 nude sold for $68.96 million, including
commissions, at Sotheby’s in New York tonight, easily surpassing the
artist’s record at auction.

“Nu Assis sur un Divan (La Belle Romaine)” was estimated to fetch
about $40 million. The artist’s previous record was set in June when a
limestone bust went for $53 million, blasting past its $7 million
estimate.

Among Modigliani’s paintings, his nudes are especially coveted. This
one has an almond-eyed model, head cocked seductively and her torso
wrapped in a piece of white drapery that reveals more than it
obscures.

read more


Christian Louboutin Brings Jolie’s Shoes to Beijing Bloomberg
Misc.

Christian Louboutin, the French shoemaker that counts Angelina Jolie
among its customers, plans to open stores in China and India as rising
incomes buoy luxury spending in Asia’s two fastest-growing major
economies.

A Beijing store will open in July, and a second one will start in
Shanghai by the end of 2011, founder and designer Christian Louboutin
said in an interview in Hong Kong. The luxury shoemaker, which
produces its red-soled footwear in Italy, may operate as many as five
stores in China in the next three years and may expand in Brazil, he
said.

read more


Egypt mulls US-dollar "century bonds" : minister Reuters
World Of Finance


Egypt is considering offers from a number of investment banks to
launch 100-year "century" bonds, Finance Minister Youssef
Boutros-Ghali said on Wednesday.

"I don't need the money, but we are thinking about it," he told
Reuters by telephone. The bonds would be denominated in U.S. dollars
and would help demonstrate appetite for longer-term debt in Egypt, he
added.

Conclusions

How the World has moved.

read more


Tanzania ruling party expects comfortable poll win Reuters
Law & Politics

Tanzania's ruling party said on Tuesday it expected to emerge the
victor from last Sunday's presidential and parliamentary elections
while foreign observers expressed concern about the vote count.

For the second day, police used teargas and water cannon against
protesters angry at the delay in some results and the credibility of
others in the commercial capital Dar es Salaam and some parts of the
country, east Africa's second biggest economy.

Earlier, the defeated candidate in the presidential contest on
Tanzania's semi-autonomous islands of Zanzibar said the vote was
unfair but accepted a position in a coalition government to avoid the
bloodshed that has marred the last two ballots.

Conclusions

Are these early Cracks in the CCM Monolith?

read more


Nigeria to Sell $500 Million Eurobond by Mid-December Bloomberg
World Of Finance


Nigeria will sell its planned $500 million eurobond by the middle of
December, Abraham Nwankwo, director-general of the country’s Debt
Management Office, told reporters in Lagos today. Bookrunners for the
sale will be appointed next week, he said.

read more



Kenya's NMG lists on Rwanda's fledgling bourse Reuters
Africa

Kenya's Nation Media Group (NMG) cross-listed its shares on the
fledgling Rwanda Stock Exchange on Tuesday, the first country in the
East African Community (EAC) to adopt reforms aimed at attracting
investors.

The EAC plans reforms, such as tax cuts, to increase investment across
the region as part of an effort to deepen levels of economic
integration.Rwanda's embryonic stock market is eager to attract
initial public offers (IPO) by companies, but has mainly attracted
treasury and corporate bonds so far.It plans to transform into a fully
fledged stock exchange later this year and shed its over-the-counter
operations.So far, apart from NMG, the exchange has only the
cross-listed Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB).

The government has plans to offer a stake in brewer Braliwa later this
year, possibly the country's first IPO.

Mark Rugenera, Chairman of Rwanda's Capital Market Advisory Council
(CMAC), said the Rwanda bourse has cut taxes in line with
recommendations in the East African common market proposals to attract
investors and issuers.

Withholding tax on dividends on listed companies is now 5 percent,
down from 15 percent.

Tax interest on listed bonds with maturity of three years is now 5
percent from 15 percent and corporate income taxes were reduced to the
lower rates ranging from 28 percent to 20 percent, Rugenera said.

NMG, east Africa's largest media house, cross-listed in Uganda on
October 19, and has said it seeks to attract more investors by listing
on all of the EAC's bourses.

Conclusions

As I have said Those Folks in Rwanda are no Slouches.

read more


Safaricom eyes Sh4.5bn second bond this month Business Daily
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

“We are planning to launch the second tranche of the Sh4.5 billion
near the end of November, 2010,” Bob Collymore, the Safaricom CEO told
Business Daily on Tuesday.

“The proceeds will be used for the same purpose as before—capital
expenditure,” he added.

Safaricom’s first tranches came with coupon rate of 12.25 per cent and
analysts expect the second tranche to be priced at between eight and
8.5 per cent.

Safaricom earned Sh15.7 billion or 18.7 per cent of its total revenues
of Sh83.9 billion in the year to March from data and SMS.

read more


National Bank's nine-month pretax profit up 38 pct Reuters
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

National Bank of Kenya said on Wednesday that pretax profit jumped 39
percent to 1.99 billion shillings in the first nine months of the year
as loans and advances rose 44 percent.Total interest income went up to
4.06 billion shillings over January and September from 3.28 billion in
the year ago period.Loans and advances to customers rose to 17.33
billion shillings.

NBK share price data and 3rd Quarter results here www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/8U8iAv

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          39.75
Total Shares Issued:          280,000,000
Market Capitalization:        11,130M
EPS:            4.01
PE:                9.913

read more



Nation Media share price data www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:          163.00
Total Shares Issued:          157,118,576
Market Capitalization:        25,610M
EPS:            7.00
PE:                23.286

Conclusions

Do Look at the 1st Half Results which were strong at over 50% ahead of
the previous Year.

I was kindly invited by Linus Gitahi Esquire to the African Media
Conference to celebrate 50 Years of the Nation and the Aga Khan said
He started the Nation at aged 23 and knew nothing about Media then. It
was an excellent Conference.

read more




 
 
N.S.E Today

The Nairobi Stock Exchange turned lower today.
The NSE20 retreated 39.77 points to close at 4647.21 and just over 1%
from its recent 2010 Closing high just over 4700.00
The NASI eased 0.90 points to close at 101.6586.
Market Cap was 1.212481 Trillion versus 1.223374 Trillion last time.
Equity Turnover was 515.793m versus 582.062m and volumes remain
elevated of late.
Safaricom, Kenya Airways are slated to release 1st Half Results and
concessions have been built into both Prices.
3rd Quarter Banking Results continue to be released with NBK reporting
a 39% Acceleration and Standard Chartered missing estimates at +19%.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Eaagads ran up a further 9.2% to close at 65.00 and traded 55,300
shares. Eaagads is the Top Performer at the Bourse over a 1 Year
Period at +225% and the Tatu City Project and the comments from the
Renaissance East Africa CEO Patrick Mweheire to Businessweek that
'Part of the company’s land would be used for the $5 billion Tatu City
residential complex outside Nairobi' has encouraged Investors that
this will release back to Shareholders the Value of the Land,
previously carried on the Balance sheet at Cost. There has been a
'Super Spike' in real estate Prices around this Area.

Eaagads Ltd share price data www.rich.co.ke +225% 1 Year Return
http://bit.ly/9gl6E3

Kakuzi firmed 1.13% to close at 89.00 and traded 2,300 shares and is a
Eaagads Version 2 in fact.
Rea Vipingo improved 5 cents to close at 17.40 and traded 1,500 shares.
Sasini Tea and Coffee traded 80,000 shares and closed unchanged at 14.45.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     12,382,200
total turnover     59,167,084
avg price     4.78 Closing Price 4.75 -2.06%
high price     4.90
low price     4.70
last price     4.80

Conclusions

I just received My Invite to the 1st Half Results slated for Release
Wednesday 10th November. Safaricom was the 2nd most active share at
the Bourse and closed 2.06% lower at 4.75 [The average was 4.78] as
some Nerves probably crept in ahead of the Half Year Results. The
Bulls will be looking at the Data Curve which  earned Sh15.7 billion
or 18.7 per cent of Safaricom's total revenues of Sh83.9 billion in
the year to March and looking at the Trajectory for the Offensive
Play. The Defensive Play is how Safaricom are faring in defending the
Voice Turf. The Voice Price War has been brutal and The Price Curve
permanently reset lower but I sense it is now all in the Price.

Kenya Airways firmed 1.11299% to close at 44.75 and traded a
43.00-45.00 range and 650,200 shares worth 29.194m. Kenya Airways
actually closed the session out trading at 43.50 -1.69%. Half Year
Results are slated for Release imminently and Good Buy Side Action was
seen at 42.00+ where the PE is below 10.00.

Nation Media firmed 1.22% to close at 165.00 and traded 12,300 shares.
The Chairman made some bullish comments in Rwanda where Nation has
cross listed itself.
Standard did not trade.

ScanGroup traded 281.900 shares and closed unchanged at 69.50.
ScanGroup is the 2nd best Performer at the NSE after Eaagads and has
registered a 187.242% 1 Year return. The Ogilvy Transaction, the
Airtel Win and a sneaking realisation that ScanGroup has become WPP's
Sorrell's Africa Consolidator has sent the Price sharply higher. There
is also a growing Realisation that Ad Spend across Africa is in a
sweet Spot as Brands seek to upsize their Profiles.

TPS Serena eased 2.158% to close at 68.00 and traded 128,000 shares.

Access Kenya retreated 1.15% to close at 17.15 and traded a
17.00-17.50 range and 73,900 shares. Access Kenya is down 12.759% over
1 Year and bucking the General Trend.

CMC Holdings retreated 1.9% to close at 12.90 and traded 425,300 shares.
CarGen was marked down 8% to close at 46.00 and traded 20,000 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenolKobil was the most active share at the Nairobi Bourse today.
KenolKobil eased 0.45% to close at 11.00 and traded 7.605m shares
worth 83.677m. KenolKobil has rallied 150.839% over a 1 Year Period
and trades on a Trailing PE of 12.557 and now that its a Ceasefire all
round, The Price should track higher.

Kenolkobil share price data www.rich.co.ke +150.839% 1 Year
http://bit.ly/2DMFVE

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:          11.05
Total Shares Issued:          1,471,761,152
Market Capitalization:        16,263M
EPS:            0.88
PE:                12.557

Total eased 1.64% to close at 30.00 and traded a 29.00-30.50 range and
123,400 shares worth 3.701m. Total produced strong 1st Half Results
and at this Level trades on a Single Digit Forward PE.

Athi River Mining traded 3rd at the Bourse. ARM improved 0.57% to
close at 176.00 and traded a 175.00-177.00 range and 329,400 shares
worth 58.166m. Look at the Sharp and now consistent Spike in Volumes
some way higher than the Moving Average. Couple that Spike with
Comments made by The Principal Shareholder in Washington and You might
well ask is ARM already in Play?

Athi River Mining share price data www.rich.co.ke +82.58% 1 Year
http://bit.ly/4slEGv

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          175.00
Total Shares Issued:          99,055,000
Market Capitalization:        17,335M
EPS:            6.52
PE:                26.840

Note the Volume Spike in the last 5 months

Bamburi Cement traded 47,300 shares and retreated 1.91% to close at
205.00 where all the shares were traded. You will recall that Bamburi
Held a significant Piece of ARM which they outed some ways below where
we are now.
Portland traded 300 shares at 114.00 -0.87%.

Mumias Sugar traded 6th. Mumias Sugar retreated 1.808% to close at
10.85 and traded a 10.60-11.50 range and 3.564m shares worth 38.702m.
Mumias Sugar has retreated 30% from 15.50 Highs on 5th August of this
Year and each Rally has been meet with Heavy Sell Side Action and the
Divergence from the Sugar Price which crossed 30 cents yesterday is
noteworthy. Mumias Sugar is +66.106% over a 1 Year Period.

KenGen traded 1.125m shares and firmed 5 cents to close at 17.40.
KPLC sliced off  a shilling to close at 223.00 and trades Heavy ahead
of the Pricing Information Reference the Rights Issue which has an
intended Call of between 7-10 Billion shillings. KPLC traded 31,700
shares.
Cables was unchanged at 18.05 and traded 15,400 shares.

East African Breweries came off a shilling to close at 208.00 and
traded light volume of 16,100 shares.

BAT was marked down 1.06% to close at 278.00 and traded 900 shares.

Carbacid firmed 2.75% to close at 149.00 and traded 3,700 shares.
BOC Kenya did not trade.
Crown Berger edged 25 cents better to close at 37.25 and traded 2,300 shares.
Eveready traded 13,000 shares and closed at 3.50.
Sameer closed at 8.05 and traded 8,600 shares.
Unga traded 29,500 shares and closed at 12.20 unchanged.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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