|Wednesday 26th of January 2011
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Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution, and how mobile phones helped it happen
And this Jasmine Revolution will amplify two ways: through the Maghreb
and towards the holy cities of Saudi Arabia. The question remains the
degree of the amplification. And it would be naive to expect that it
might not cross the Sahara and head south.
Change is never incremental, it tips and surges. Looking at Tunisia
and Africa, I see so many similarities. There is the widest spread
between the average age of the rulers and the average age of the
ruled. Tunisia is but the first example of the elastic band snapping.
The demographic skew is such that an average of more than 60 percent
Africans are under the age of 26. Massive urbanization pulls have
concentrated these young people in cities. Through mobile phones, and
the Internet, and social media, they are all connected.
And keep an eye on food prices. Those are sky high and not coming down
and not unlike dry kindling, awaiting a spark.
The Jasmine Revolution feels like the story of Gulliver and the
Lilliputians. Gulliver was the state. All powerful. You owned the
levers to the state, you owned it all. L'état, c'est moi. Then the
Lilliputians got connected and that connection was the net with which
to catch their Gulliver.
John Donne wrote:
"...Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee..."
Aly-Khan Satchu is in Nairobi who blogs at Satchu's Rich Wrapup here
The Star Juba Boom Town Said Aburish
What is #Mindspeak ?
Suraj Sudhakar, Aly-Khan Satchu, and Melinda French Gates at the
reception following TEDxChange @ TEDxKibera Flickr
Obama's State of the Union address: US must seize 'Sputnik moment' Guardian
Law & Politics
In an annual State of the Nation address, the president appealed for
cooperation with Republicans "to win the future" by saying that the
present generation faces what he called its "Sputnik moment" requiring
government investment in research, infrastructure and education, paid
for in part by eliminating subsidies to hugely profitable oil
companies, to match that of the rising economic powers.
"Half a century ago, when the Soviets beat us into space with the
launch of a satellite called Sputnik, we had no idea how we'd beat
them to the moon. The science wasn't there yet. NASA didn't even
exist. But after investing in better research and education, we didn't
just surpass the Soviets; we unleashed a wave of innovation that
created new industries and millions of new jobs. This is our
generation's Sputnik moment," he told a changed Congress following the
Republicans seizure of the House of Representatives in November's
'Sputnik' is just such a powerful and positive Image. President Obama
has come out of Hibernation All Guns Blazing.
Three dead in Egypt protests Aljazeera
Law & Politics
Two civilians and a police officer have died after a wave of unusually
large anti-government demonstrations swept across Egypt, calling for
the ouster of longtime president Hosni Mubarak.In central Cairo,
crowds numbering in the thousands protested and clashed with police
throughout the day. Shortly after midnight on Wednesday morning,
security forces violently dispersed those who remained in Tahrir
Square, the heart of the city, Al Jazeera's Adam Makary
reported.Security officers fired tear gas, water cannons and rubber
bullets to drive the protesters from the square, where they had chosen
to remain throughout the night in protest. An Al Jazeera cameraman was
shot with rubber bullets several times, including once in the face,
Telephone communication with people in central Cairo was nearly
impossible, but Makary reported that the crowds, which had been
peaceful, had been forced to escape the police, who fired dozens of
tear gas canisters.
Egyptian blogger Hossam El Hamalawy told Al Jazeera that new media had
been important in facilitating "the domino effect" needed for
demonstrations like this one to progress, but he noted that it was the
people in the street making the difference.
El Hamalawy told Al Jazeera the protests were necessary "to send a
message to the Egyptian regime that Mubarak is no different than Ben
Ali and we want him to leave too."
"Our protest on the 25th is the beginning of the end," the organisers
of the Facebook protest group wrote.
"People are fed up of Mubarak and of his dictatorship and of his
torture chambers and of his failed economic policies. If Mubarak is
not overthrown tomorrow then it will be the day after. If its not the
day after its going to be next week," El Hamalawy told Al Jazeera.
"We have taken back our streets today from the regime and they won't
recover from the blow," said Rizk
You lose the Street and You lose everything. The Iranian Regime
deployed a great deal of Violence in order to maintain control of the
Street. Will the Egyptian Government be prepared to deploy the same
level of State Terror?
Currency Markets At a Glance WSJ
Euro 1.3670 -> touched a fresh 2-month high of $1.3702 in late
afternoon trading Yesterday
Pound 1.5801 11 week low
India Rupee 45.52
South Korean Won 1115.20
Britain reported that fourth-quarter gross domestic product
unexpectedly declined by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter.
The agency tied the bulk of the decline to weather, but economists
said the depth of the contraction raised disturbing questions about
the outlook for the economy.
“For the currency, the combination of an economy coming off the boil
from the initial post-recession recovery, coming against the backdrop
of inflation pushing to 4% in the coming months, has historically
proved to be a toxic combination,” said Simon Smith, chief economist
The Federal Reserve will also convene its first monetary policy
meeting of the year, with a policy statement due out Wednesday.
Euro was supported by this EFSF places inaugural benchmark issue
World Of Finance
European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) today placed its
inaugural bond for an amount of €5 billion as part of the EU/IMF
financial support package agreed for Ireland. The issuance spread was
fixed at mid-swap plus 6 basis points. This implies borrowing costs
for EFSF of 2.89%. Investor interest was exceptionally strong, a
record breaking order book of €44.5 billion from more than 500
investors. Investor demand came from around the world and from all
types of institutions. Very strong demand came from Asia. The
Government of Japan purchased over 20% of the issue, reflecting its
early commitment with the intention of contributing to European
Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodity prices retreated Tuesday, taking a cue from currency-market
response to the U.K. economy's surprise contraction.Both industrial
and agricultural commodity prices were hit by the selloff, with
natural gas, copper, coffee and rice futures all down more than 2%.
Palladium was off more than 4%.
Cocoa March 2011 3335 +61 (+1.81%) INO
Last Price 3335
Open Int. 60073
Contract High 3477 Contract High Date 2009-12-16
Contract Low 2410
First Delivery 2011-03-31
Targets 1979 Highs.
Warhol Portrait, Koons Bears to Boost $116 Million London Sales Bloomberg
The New York-based auction house is selling 100 kilograms (220 pounds)
of the same Ai Weiwei hand-painted sunflower seeds that are currently
covering the floor of Tate Modern’s Turbine Hall. They may fetch at
least 80,000 pounds.
The 1967 Warhol has been in a U.S. private collection since 1974 and
is estimated to sell for as much as 5 million pounds at Christie’s on
Feb. 16. Koons’s 1988 “Winter Bears,” also offered at auction for the
first time, has a low estimates of 2.5 million pounds. Christie’s
auction of 64 lots may raise as much as 51.9 million pounds.
A kilogram of porcelain seeds hand-painted by Ai Weiwei. The seeds are
the same type that the Chinese artist used in an installation that is
currently covering the floor of Tate Modern's Turbine Hall. From an
edition of 10, it is expected to sell for between 80,000 pounds and
120,000 pounds at Sotheby's Feb. 15 auction of contemporary art in
London. Source: Sotheby's via Bloomberg
How to Make the Best Fried Rice WSJ
Food, Climate & Agriculture
That’s why chef Hang-yuk Choy counts as one of his greatest
achievements winning the Hong Kong Tourism Bureau’s Best of the Best
Culinary Award for his signature fried rice.
At his restaurant, Tsui Hang Village — a Hong Kong institution for
more than three decades — Mr. Choy believes that three main
ingredients make up a holy trinity when it comes to fried rice: conpoy
(dried scallop), dried fish and roasted goose.
Egypt Protests Leave 3 Dead; Cairo Rally Broken Up Bloomberg
The cost of insuring Egyptian sovereign debt rose 22 basis points
yesterday to 325, the highest since June 2009, according to CMA prices
for credit-default swaps. Egypt’s benchmark EGX30 Index has declined 6
percent since Ben Ali was toppled on Jan. 14. The stock market was
closed yesterday for a holiday.
The Political Risk is flashing RED in Egypt.
^EGX30 was closed Yesterday Bloomberg Visual -5.866% 2011
I would prefer to be Short than Long.
Egyptian Pound versus The Dollar 1 Year Chart INO 5.7578 +0.0008 (+0.01%)
Ships Seized by Pirates See 36-Fold Cost Rise: Freight Markets Bloomberg
Tourism, Travel & Transport
Somali pirate attacks are increasing, spurred by a 36-fold jump in
ransoms in five years, raising costs for shippers and the threat to
vessels carrying 20 percent of world trade.
The raids are adding at least $2.4 billion to transport costs because
vessels are being diverted onto longer routes to avoid attacks off
east Africa, Louisville, Colorado-based One Earth Future Foundation
estimates. Average ransom payments rose to $5.4 million last year,
compared with $150,000 in 2005, the non-profit group says. Attacks off
Somalia were the highest on record last year, with 49 vessels and
1,016 crew members hijacked, according to the International Maritime
“It’s likely to continue on its trajectory,” said Roger Middleton, an
analyst covering Somalia at the Royal Institute of International
Affairs in London. “Every time some of them are arrested, there are
plenty of others happy to take their places because it’s so well
Escalating attacks are driving some tankers to sail around southern
Africa rather than through the Suez Canal, adding about 12 days to a
journey from Saudi Arabia to Houston, said Luis Mateus, an analyst at
Riverlake Shipping SA, a broker in Geneva. Returns for owners on the
route averaged $11,743 a day last year, according to data from the
Baltic Exchange in London, which publishes assessments for more than
50 maritime routes.
About 30 anti-piracy ships are deployed daily in the region by groups
including the European Union and NATO. The European Naval Force
patrols about 2 million square nautical miles, or an area 10 times the
size of Germany.
Somali pirates have widened the zone in which they operate over the
last three years to find easier targets as the warships escort vessels
through the Gulf of Aden to the north, according to Middleton. They
ranged as far south as Madagascar last year, and to within about 100
miles north of the Maldives in the east, reports from the IMB show.
As many as 25,000 ships sail through the Gulf of Aden a year, said
Giles Noakes, head of security at the Baltic and International
Maritime Council. Including a wider stretch of the Indian Ocean where
the pirates also operate, as many as 40,000 are at risk, he said. That
includes oil tankers, dry bulk carriers and general cargo vessels.
Container ships are less likely to be attacked because they sit higher
in the water and sail faster, said Odin Hjellestad, a partner at
Bergen Risk Solutions in Norway. The company advises ship owners on
security.Pirates are also seizing bigger vessels to use as so-called
mother ships that can operate over larger areas and are harder to
recapture because crews are being kept on board, BIMCO’S Noakes said.
“They are able to work with an element of impunity in the northwest
Indian Ocean,” said Noakes, whose organization has about 2,600
members, including owners, brokers and agents. “There aren’t enough
resources to contain the pirates.”
Attacks off Somalia’s coast climbed last year to 139 from 80 and in
the Red Sea jumped to 25 from 15, according to data from the
London-based International Maritime Bureau, whose Piracy Reporting
Centre has monitored incidents since 1991. Attacks in the Gulf of Aden
fell to 53, down from 117, a drop the IMB attributes in part to the
EU Navfor estimates 20 percent of world trade passes through the Gulf
of Aden between Yemen and Somalia. Ships use it to get to Egypt’s Suez
Canal, which connects the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea. The waterway
is the fastest crossing from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean,
according to the Suez Canal Authority.A vessel going from Saudi Arabia
to Rotterdam can cut the distance traveled by about 42 percent by
using the canal rather than sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, data
on the canal authority’s website show. To southern France the saving
is 57 percent and to New York 30 percent, the data show.
Somali pirates were holding 28 vessels and 638 hostages for ransom as
of Dec. 31, according to the IMB, part of the International Chamber of
In areas of Somalia where pirates have bases, hijackings are “woven
into the social and economic fabric of everyday life,” United Nations
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wrote in a report in October. “The root
causes of piracy are found on land.”
Nigeria lifts key rate to 6.5 pct, tightens liquidity Reuters
* Benchmark interest rate raised by 25 bps
* Corridor of +/-200 bps kept for lending/deposit rates
* Cash reserve requirement raised to 2 pct
* Commitment to stable forex rate reaffirmed
Nigeria raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.5
percent on Tuesday and took aggressive measures to tighten liquidity
as its seeks to get inflation down to single digits.
The monetary policy committee (MPC) raised the cash reserve
requirement for banks to 2 percent from 1 and lifted the liquidity
ratio to 30 percent from 25, a bid to tame inflation by reducing
lenders' ability to create more money.
Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi said the committee had voted by an
11-1 majority to raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points,
describing it as a continuation of the "normalisation of monetary
policy" after the financial crisis.
Sanusi said inflation remained a risk as the new Asset Management
Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) -- a "bad bank" set up to absorb bad
loans in the wake of a $4 billion bank bailout in 2009 --
recapitalised lenders.An anticipated rise in government spending in
the run-up to presidential, parliamentary and local elections in April
as well as rising global food and energy prices were also threats.
"Inflation remains a major concern and can't be ignored in the short
to medium term," Sanusi said.
Sanusi reaffirmed his commitment to a stable exchange rate, which has
remained in a tight band around 150 naira to the U.S. dollar NGN=D1
for more than a year, although he acknowledged this was eating into
Staying ahead of the Curve.
Hope for the Future of Kenya Remarks by U.S. Ambassador Michael Ranneberger
Law & Politics
American Chamber of Commerce
January 25, 2011
As the new year opens, the winds of irreversible change are gusting
in Kenya. Kenyans – and we -- are positive about the country’s
future. The challenge is how ordinary Kenyans and Kenyan leaders can
seize this moment. Implementation of the reform agenda and the
constitution are crucial to ensure an open and transparent electoral
process in 2012. My central message is this: The United States is
strongly committed to encouraging, supporting, and nurturing the
process of peaceful democratic change. Bringing about political reform
and change is linked to promoting development and well-being for all
Kenyans – and Kenya’s long-term democratic stability. Let political
leaders come forward boldly to embrace and lead the change that is
underway. Kenyans’ hopes and aspirations need to be made real.
The Tipping Point of the New in the Face of the Old
The post-election crisis of 2008 opened up a unique opportunity to
bring about sweeping reforms, and thus fundamental change. The
peaceful and transparent referendum to adopt a new constitution is a
major milestone, and has created a watershed moment. The new
constitutional framework, if and when fully implemented, will
establish the institutions and structures necessary to carry out
further reforms agreed to in the National Accord, including police
reform, judicial reform, and electoral reform. The new constitution
creates a new social contract between the government by and for the
people. Devolution, the limiting of executive power, and the creation
of a bicameral legislature open up new spaces for active citizenship.
It is truly a transformational time and, if done right, offers
unlimited opportunities for new economic prosperity for all Kenyans.
We commend the progress made thus far. Credible implementing
committees have been established, and Parliament is playing a
constructive role. We urge elected leaders and responsible citizens to
forge ahead and maintain momentum, including by ensuring that key
appointments are made transparently and that only the most reputable
persons are named to high office. Their selection and how they
dispense their entrusted and sacred duties must uphold both the spirit
and letter of the new constitution.
Political power has too often been perpetuated through a combination
of three elements: the culture of impunity; exploiting negative
ethnicity; and manipulating young people, which is facilitated by
widespread poverty and unemployment. Now, however, the forces of
reform and change are exerting increasing pressure to realize the “new
dawn” which the vast majority of the Kenyan people want to see. Even
as some seek to maintain the status quo, ordinary Kenyans are speaking
out: with their neighbors, in calls to radio and television shows, in
schools, in churches, in the work place, in the market place, and in
seminars and public forums being sponsored by civil society throughout
the country. The media has facilitated enormous expansion of
democratic space. Increasingly, professionals across the country are
coming together to promote alternative leadership in their
communities, and nationally. And yet, some continue to resist
fundamental change. The pace of reform and Kenya’s prosperity hang in
The National Anti-Corruption Commission is carrying out vigorous
investigations. We will know that real progress is being made when a
senior official is actually tried and, if convicted, imprisoned. Some
politicians continue to appeal counter-productively to ethnic
alliances, which reflect the old approach to politics, not the new
dawn which the Kenyan people yearn to see. Meanwhile, holding
accountable alleged perpetrators of post-election violence is
essential. As President Obama stated: “I urge all of Kenya’s leaders,
and the people whom they serve, to cooperate fully with the ICC
investigation and remain focused on implementation of the reform
agenda and the future of your nation. Those found responsible will be
held accountable for their crimes as individuals. No community should
be singled out for shame or held collectively responsible. Let the
accused carry their own burdens.”
Genuine Political Reform Eradicates Impunity and Invigorates Development
Friends must be mutually supportive, but they must also be open to
frank and constructive dialogue. We seek to work together with the
Kenyan people and government on the basis of shared interests.
The U.S. has acted as a reliable partner and friend over the last
fifty years to strengthen institutions, both public and private, to
better serve Kenyans. As Vice President Biden noted during his visit
in 2010: “In crisis and in celebration, we have forged a strong and
enduring political and economic relationship. But true friendship
demands honesty. So if our words are sometimes blunt, it’s because
our faith in the possibilities of Kenya are unlimited.”
Political reform and economic development are inextricably linked, and
together they are keys to the nation’s stability and prosperity, as
well as our continuing partnership. The deeply-rooted culture of
impunity is the greatest impediment to Kenya’s economic progress and
leadership on the global stage. As then Senator Obama stated during
his 2006 visit to Kenya: “Corruption stifles development. Corruption
must be addressed in order for Kenya to fully reach its potential.
The United States will always speak out against crime, corruption and
behaviors that are moving Kenya in the wrong direction.”
The stakes could not be higher: credible information indicates that as
much as one-third of Kenya’s GDP is lost each year due to corruption,
and that 25 – 30 percent of its budget remains unaccounted for due to
mismanagement, poor accounting practices, and “leakage.” Loss of
one-third of this GDP robs an honest people of the opportunities they
need – and deserve – for better lives.
The World Bank’s 2010 “Doing Business Ranking” ranks Kenya 98 out of
183 countries. In addition to a cumbersome bureaucracy and relatively
high labor costs, widespread corruption is largely responsible for
The roll call of the myriad corruption cases – including
Anglo-Leasing, the maize scandal, and Triton to name just a few, is
well-known. The KACC indicates that a number of ministers,
parliamentarians, and as many as 40 parastatals are under
investigation. It is essential that the KACC be supported to carry out
impartial investigations and that the corruption issue not be
Corruption and mismanagement, particularly with respect to social
services, directly affect the lives and prospects of Kenyans. Infant
mortality is 52 per 1,000 live births and the under-5 mortality rate
is 74 per 1,000 live births. Maternal mortality is 488 per 100,000
live births. These rates are alarmingly high in terms of Africa and
the world. A recent extensive audit revealed that an estimated $100
million over the past several years cannot be accounted for at the
Ministry of Education. These funds were meant to provide Kenya’s
children with a quality education to help lift them and their families
out of poverty. The impact on Kenyan citizens is direct: access to
education is limited, and too many students and teachers must cope
with sub-standard conditions in their schools.
Over half of Kenya’s population lives in poverty, living on less than
$2 per day. Kenya is ranked in the bottom 20% of countries in the
UNDP Human Development Index. Real unemployment among the two-thirds
of the population which are under 35 stands at nearly 50 percent.
We should, however, also recognize that important progress has been
achieved in some areas. The institution of free primary education,
infrastructure development particularly through extensive expansion of
the road network, procurement reform, civil service reform, electoral
reform, and increased efficiency in tax collection are all positive,
and I could cite other examples as well. Indeed, Kenya has had an
upward trajectory since independence. The tragedy of corruption is
that Kenya’s upward trajectory should have been even higher than it
The hard reality is that sustained double-digit growth rates are
needed for Kenya to meet its goal of becoming a middle income country
by the year 2030, especially given the 2.6 percent population growth
rate. GDP growth is projected to reach around 5.8 percent this year.
The impact of the global financial crisis, high fuel prices, and
drought contributed to slow recovery following the post-election
crisis, but corruption is one of the major factors impeding a faster
rise in GDP. The slow rise in foreign direct investment is due
largely to investors’ concerns about corruption and stability.
Pervasive counterfeiting – which thrives in the context of lack of
accountability -- costs local firms 6% of their revenues, the
difference between good-paying jobs in Kenya or somewhere else.
According to Vision 2030, Kenya seeks to become a middle-income
country within 19 years. Without significant reforms, the necessary
levels of growth simply will not be achieved. Vision 2030 will remain
a chimera without fundamental reform.
United States Support for Fundamental Democratic Change and Reform
The United States has clearly and consistently placed itself on the
side of those who want to bring about fundamental democratic change
through reforms carried out within a peaceful democratic process. We
have done this because democratic stability and prosperity are in all
Kenyans’ best interests and in the best interests of the American
people. We fully appreciate the importance of Kenya as the lynchpin of
East Africa, as one of the principal driving forces on the continent,
and as a potential dynamo for growth.
Our approach is non-partisan, and our programs and activities are
completely transparent. U.S. policy encourages and supports the Kenyan
government and people to carry out the reform process and to implement
the constitution. In addition to using a combination of public and
private diplomacy, the following are some of our areas of focus:
n Support for civil society efforts to carry out civic education, to
promote peace and reconciliation, and to foster inter-religious
n Promoting sustainable economic growth to deliver social benefits,
food, health care, and prosperity to those in Kenya who have not
shared equally in the country’s resources.
n Engagement with Kenyans through annual exchange programs which
involve hundreds of persons going from Kenya to the U.S., and from the
U.S. to Kenya.
n Assistance for the National Cohesion and Integration Commission to
combat hate speech.
n Assistance to the Interim Independent Electoral Commission to
support the holding of credible and transparent elections.
n Assistance for the National Anti-Corruption Commission to support
the fight against corruption and impunity.
n Technical Assistance to Parliament.
n Support for the empowerment of youth to expand their participation
in the democratic system and to assist them to develop businesses to
create new jobs.
n Support for the empowerment of women through wide-ranging
activities, particularly through support for the G-10 women’s
n Support for strengthening the role of political parties in the
democratic system, and to help expand the roles of women and youth in
n Support, at the request of the Kenyan government, to bring to
justice drug kingpins. We have also offered to the government support
for implementation of the anti-money-laundering legislation passed
n Technical assistance for land reforms.
We are working to develop a program of support for the devolution
process. One element of this will be to encourage participation of the
Kenyan diaspora through a “county connections” program.
We will continue to use the full range of tools available to us to
counter the culture of impunity and to promote reform. This includes
preventing corrupt individuals from travelling to the U.S.
The United States is Kenya’s largest and most important partner. That
partnership – and friendship – continues to expand and grow stronger.
As Vice President Biden stated, “The United States of America’s
relationship with Kenya is among the most important on the continent
for us, one that has been strong and uninterrupted since your
The Kenyan people appreciate this friendship. Apart from the major
objective of encouraging and supporting democratic change, the U.S.
also is extensively engaged in support of development, and we are
promoting peace and stability – and integration -- in the East African
region through collaboration with the Kenyan government.
Approximately $3 billion annually flows to Kenya from the United
States through official assistance, trade, American private sector
investment, remittances, tourism, humanitarian assistance, private
projects being carried out by thousands of American citizens, and
through our contributions to international financial institutions and
the United Nations. This represents almost ten percent of Kenya’s
Kenya has recently been designated a focus country for two of
President Obama’s global initiatives. Through the Feed the Future
Initiative, working with the Government of Kenya we have affirmed a
commitment to achieve significant agricultural development objectives,
including alleviating the suffering of the over 2 million Kenyans who
are chronically food insecure. Last September at KARI, I announced an
initial USG investment of $29 million to support Kenya’s agricultural
strategy through the Feed the Future initiative. We will also
continue to provide humanitarian assistance to combat drought.
Real success in the agricultural sector, however, will require the
GOK’s commitment to the political and economic reform agenda,
including land reform, a strengthened fight against corruption,
restructuring and/or elimination of the 34 agriculture-related
parastatals, including the NCPB, and removing protectionist tariffs
and import licenses that increase the price of basic foodstuffs to the
Kenya is also one of only 8 focus countries under President Obama’s
Global Health Initiative, which aims to strengthen health services for
mothers and children, while building sustainability to allow countries
to take greater responsibility for their health care systems. Our $560
million program to fight HIV/AIDS is the largest that we have with any
country in the world.
President Obama has a strong interest in developing the leadership
skills of young people, and last year held his first Young Africa
Leaders Forum. He has charged young people to be agents of change and
to “stand up for democracy and transparent government.” Our $45
million “Yes Youth Can” program will empower hundreds of thousands of
youth to participate in the development of their country, and expand
their peaceful participation in the democratic process.
Our work with youth supports the initiatives of young people
themselves. Importantly, the National Youth Forum works across ethnic
and political lines with a common agenda to promote peaceful reform.
We welcome the National Youth Forum’s efforts to establish County
Youth Forums in every county. We are establishing a $10 million
youth-led and youth-owned Youth Innovate for Change Fund that will
provide youth with opportunities to access capital for economic
Toward the Future
Although some seek to maintain the status quo, the pervasive sentiment
throughout the country for real change is palpable. As we remain
optimistic about Kenya’s future, let us reflect that change can often
occur more quickly than anyone expects. Through the rising voices of
Kenyans, the empowerment of youth, and the support of Kenya’s friends,
I am convinced that fundamental democratic change will take place
peacefully, and sooner than most observers expect.
The American Chamber of Commerce is a vital part of the U.S.-Kenyan
partnership. I commend your efforts to support this process of change.
Working closely with our donor partners -- and all those inside and
outside the government who support reform -- we will continue to
expand and strengthen our engagement to support reform, and to promote
development – so that these inter-linked agendas will move forward and
generate a virtuous circle of peaceful change. The Kenyan people
deserve our best: the new constitution embodies a new Kenyan dream
for the unborn children, so that they live in a land whose tremendous
potential has been realized. Let their dreams be realized as Kenyans
move toward a “new dawn.”
This email is UNCLASSIFIED.
China Exim, France Provide Funds to Kenya for Geothermal Rigs Bloomberg
Minerals, Oil & Energy
Export-Import Bank of China and the French Development Agency pledged
to lend Kenya $163 million this year to buy five drilling rigs to tap
steam reserves in Kenya, Africa’s biggest geothermal power
producer.Exim Bank will provide $90 million for three of the
facilities and the government-owned Agence Francaise de Developpement
the remainder, said Silas Simiyu, chief executive officer of Kenya’s
state-run Geothermal Development Co. The gear will probably be
delivered in 2013, he told reporters yesterday in Baringo, about 200
kilometers (124 miles) northwest of Nairobi, the capital.
Kenya, East Africa’s biggest economy, is scaling up its search for
underground steam deposits with a $2.6 billion, 10- year plan to sink
566 wells at Olkaria, Menengai and Silali in the Great Rift Valley,
where shifting tectonic plates provide a key source of the energy.The
goal is to find enough steam to generate 2,336 megawatts of power by
2020 in a bid to ease dependency on the country’s main hydroelectric
providers, Simiyu said. Kenya rationed power to homes and businesses
between August and October 2009 after a drought depleted dam levels,
weighing on economic growth.
“Once the ramping up of geothermal development takes place, the issue
of power-generation shortages” will no longer exist, Simiyu said.
Kenya currently has 212 megawatts of installed capacity at geothermal
power plants in Olkaria, 120 kilometers northwest of Nairobi.
Kenya Electricity Generation Co., the county’s main power producer,
operates two sites with the ability to generate a combined 160
megawatts and it is scheduled to add another 280 megawatts there by
2013. Israel’s Ormat Industries Ltd. operates one 48-megawatt plant,
while Oserian, Kenya’s biggest grower of freshly cut flowers, has a
4-megawatt facility used to warm greenhouses.In November, the Kenyan
government acquired two drilling rigs at a cost of $35 million each
from China National Petroleum Corp. With them, GDC is expected to
begin drilling this week at the central Menengai field, aiming to find
sufficient reserves to feed a 400-megawatt power plant by 2014, Simiyu
said.Kenya currently has three drilling rigs leased from Great Wall
Drilling Co. of China, which are deployed in Olkaria. The country aims
to own a total of 12 rigs within the next few years for geothermal
exploration, Simiyu said.
Kenya estimates the extent of its unexploited power resources ranges
from 7,000 megawatts to 10,000 megawatts at 14 “high-potential”
locations valued at $30 billion, according to a company statement
handed to reporters.
The U.S., Philippines and Mexico have the world’s largest installed
capacities of geothermal power, while Kenya ranks eleventh, according
to the website of the International Geothermal Association, citing
2005 statistics. Kenya has since advanced to ninth place, Simiyu said.
Kenya bourse eyes five new listings in 2011 Reuters
Kenya's Nairobi Stock Exchange expects five new listings this year as
firms are attracted by the chance of raising capital on the back of
last year's stock market advance, its chief executive said.The bourse
was the second top gainer in Africa last year after Uganda. Its
benchmark NSE-20 share index rose 37 percent to close at 4,432.40
points -- outperforming the MSCI Frontier Markets index which rose 19
"As the market recovers and the index approaches 5,000 (points), there
are more and more issuers who are likely to come to the market," Peter
Mwangi told Reuters late on Monday.
"We are targeting five companies for listing. We are also targeting
five companies for debt security issuance and also a regional IPO,
from outside of Kenya." He did not name the companies in question.
Like other frontier markets, the NSE has been attracting higher
offshore investments as investors chase risky but high-yielding
assets. Overseas investment in the Kenya bourse jumped 156 percent
last year to 59 billion shillings, or more than half of total turnover
for the year of 110 billion shillings.Mwangi attributed the increased
foreign investor participation to several factors including the
enactment of a new constitution in August, which envisages
far-reaching reforms that may lower political risk and spur economic
"I'm optimistic that the momentum we built last year will be carried
into this year because the political reforms are ongoing and they are
quite fundamental, economic growth is accelerating, regional
integration is also picking up steam," he said.
"I expect as we go into the earnings season in March ... you will see
that companies are more profitable and that should all serve to boost
Retail investors have also been returning to the market, pleased by
moves to address a crisis of confidence in the bourse that followed
the collapse of two brokerages in 2008 and 2009.
"We will not see a relapse of those unfortunate events. There are
enough safeguards," Mwangi said, citing measures such as increased
capitalisation of brokerages and investment banks.
"A weak Europe is bad for us because of tourism, because of
horticulture, because of remittances. But it may also have a different
impact on portfolio flows as the fund managers there increase their
allocations to emerging and frontier markets."
The bourse will also carry on with initiatives in the bond market
aimed at deepening liquidity.
"We now have a yield curve but we now need a bond index so fund
managers can use it value their own performance," he said. "We are
also thinking it would be a good idea to give banks, who are big
players in the bond market, direct access to the market ... we are
hoping that will happen in the course of this year."
NSE set to sell its shares to public Nation
“The publication of the guidelines is a major milestone which we are
keen to complete within the first quarter of 2011,” chief executive
and chair of the stock exchange demutualisation steering committee
Stella Kilonzo said on Tuesday.Demutualisation is expected to improve
the stock exchange’s governance and deepen the capital markets.
“It is good for the market because it will boost investors’ confidence
and enable the NSE to position Kenya as the financial services hub for
East and Central Africa,” NSE CEO and committee vice chair Peter
Mwangi said when contacted.
After the demutualisation, the NSE, which is currently a
privately-owned company, limited by guarantee, will become a firm
limited by shares.
It will also change its name to Nairobi Securities Exchange and give
way to three types of shareholders after an initial public offering.
The 18 stockbrokers and investment bankers who currently have seats on
the board will have both trading and voting rights as well as hold a
maximum of 40 per cent stake of the new entity in less than three
Public shareholders will only have voting rights and hold a minimum of
40 per cent stake and the Investor Compensation Fund, which will also
only have voting rights and a 20 per cent stake.
The Process of Demutualisation will be helpful in erecting Barriers to
Entry and Competition and in cementing the Regional Lead.
The Nairobi Stock Exchange turned higher.
The Nairobi All Share Index closed 0.41 points higher at 101.05.
The NSE20 firmed 18.11 points to close at 4516.40.
Market Cap was 1.216826 Trillion versus 1.211879 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 396.497m versus 252.25m last time.
Safaricom rallied sharply to close at 4.50 +2.275% and was trading at
4.60 +4.545% at the Close. ARM posted a Fresh All Time Closing High.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
Kakuzi issued an Announcement Pre Market Opening stating that Del
Monte has issued a Claim for 109m Kenya Shillings with respect to the
calculation of the Price of Pineapple Sales. Kakuzi traded a 100
shares and closed at 83.00.
Williamson Tea surged 10% to close at 220.00 and traded 300 shares.
Williamson Tea has posted a 61.574% 1 Year Return and trades on a
Trailing PE of 2.282 and an Implied Forward of the same. There is
considerable Cash Formation on the Balance Sheet this Year and in fact
considerable room for a Special Dividend.
Kapchorua Tea was unchanged at 130.00 and traded 2,500 shares.
Sasini Tea and Coffee improved 0.395% to close at 12.70 and traded
122,700 shares. Sasini Tea trades on a PE of less than 3.00.
Rea Vipingo closed 10 cents firmer at 17.30 and traded 600 shares.
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
shares volume 12,570,700
total turnover 56,681,384
avg price 4.51 closing Price 4.50 +2.275%
high price 4.60
low price 4.40
last price 4.60
I mentioned yesterday that the Weak Longs looked as if they had been
flushed out and todays Price Action confirms that. Safaricom firmed
2.275% to close at 4.50 and was trading 4.60 +4.55% at the Close and
There were Buyers at that Level at the Finish. Safaricom remains
oversold on a Trailing PE of 11.842 especially when You look more
closely at the Data Story, where they have a Big Head Start. Safaricom
traded 2nd at the Bourse with 12.57m shares worth 56.681m traded.
Demand outweighed Supply by a Factor of 3-1 and thats a
Disequilibrium. Bob Collymore has signalled via his 1b Shilling Belt
Tightening that Shareholders remain uppermost in his Mind and this has
been well received. This was a Muscular Session.
Safaricom share price data 1st Half Results Analysis here
Par Value: 0.05/-
Closing Price: 4.40
Total Shares Issued: 40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization: 176,000M
Swot Analysis Key Highlights 6 months to 30 Sep 2010 versus to 30 Sep 2009
EPS 0.193 versus 0.168 +14.9%
Revenue 47.111850b versus 40.660829b +15.9%
PAT 7.630591b versus 6.631898b +15.1%
CAPEX was 10.1b
Customer Market share 76.7% from 78.3
Data Revenue as a Percentage of Total Revenue 23.8% versus 17.7% in Sep 2009
Blended ARPU 456.6 versus 466 previous Kenya Data 3.61m #Data Users 9%
of #Kenya Population
Listen to Bob Collymore set out his stall at Mindspeak RICH TV
Kenya Airways firmed 0.54% to close at 46.25 with 42,500 shares traded.
ScanGroup dipped 0.775% to close at 64.00 and traded 30,100 shares.
ScanGroup has posted a 142.262% 1 Year Return and trades on a 35.443
Nation was unchanged at 171.00 and traded 9,100 shares.
Standard improved 50 cents to close at 43.00 and traded 500 shares.
AccessKenya closed 0.36% firmer at 13.65 and traded 40,900 shares.
AccessKenya rallied sharply off its 12.75 52 week Low in December to
above 16.00 in early January and has since come back.
TPS Serena closed at 64.00 and traded 1,200 shares.
CMC Holdings was unchanged at 12.10 and traded 11,200 shares.
CarGen was unchanged at 50.00 with 500 shares traded.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Kenya Commercial Bank traded 3rd. KCB was unchanged at 23.75 and
closed the session 24.00 +1.05% trading. KCB traded a 23.50-24.00
range and 2.196m shares worth 52.451m. KCB is testing 24.00 2 Year +
Chart Resistance again and is set to cross that. KCB trades on a
Trailing PE of 12.908 and an Implied Forward PE of 8.44 [Thats via
Straightlining the 3rd Quarter Results] and is overdue a Re Rating. A
12.00 PE equates to a Price of 33.75. Given the Expansive Regional
FootPrint and the Regional GDP Upswing, a Fully Loaded Balance Sheet
and a Signal [via the Mackinsey Hire] to get tougher on Costs, the
Current Price looks egregious to me.
Kenya Commercial Bank 3rd Quarter Earnings share price data here
Par Value: 1/-
Closing Price: 23.75
Total Shares Issued: 2,950,169,088
Market Capitalization: 70,067M
Listen to Martin Oduor Otieno CEO KCB set out his Stall at Mindspeak RICH TV
COOP Bank traded 4th. COOP Bank firmed 1.23% to close at 20.50. COOP
Bank traded a 20.25-21.00 range and 1.841m shares worth 38.023m. COOP
Bank has posted a 111.387% 1 Year Return, trades on a Trailing PE of
24.122 and is just 4.65% below its All Time Record Close of 21.50 from
26th October 2010.
Equity Bank eased 0.845% to close at 29.25 and traded a 29.00-29.75
range and 750,300 shares worth 21.979m. Equity Bank trades on a
Trailing PE of 25.568 ahead of its FY Earnings release.
Barclays Bank was unchanged at 63.50 and traded 178,100 shares.
StanChart was unchanged at 271.00 and traded 4,900 shares.
CFC StanBic rallied 2.58% to close at 79.50 and traded 122,100 shares.
CFC StanBic has posted a 76.667% 1 Year Return.
Centum traded 538,800 shares and closed unchanged at 23.75.
NIC firmed 1% to close at 50.50. NIC traded 153,700 shares and 3rd
Quarter Results put the Forward PE around 10.00.
DTB rose a shilling to close at 148.00 and traded 35,600 shares. This
is All Time High Territory.
HFCK fell back 2.67% to close at 28.00 and traded 71,900 shares.
NBK eased 0.534% to close at 46.50 and traded 39,500 shares. NBK has
rallied 23.17% December through today on expectations of a Dividend
Pay Out and a more Urgent Attitude to Finding a Strategic Investor
Kenya Re traded 75,100 shares and was unchanged at 11.15.
Jubilee and PanAfric did not trade.
Olympia Capital traded 2,600 shares and closed at 5.75.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
Kenya Power KPLC was the most actively traded share and firmed 1.11%
to close 22.75. KPLC has now taken back 75% of Mondays down Move when
the New Shares were uploaded onto the System and was in fact trading
at 23.25 +3.33% session Highs at the Finish Line. This is constructive
Price Action. KPLC traded 2.944m shares worth 67.423m and has
'optimised' its Balance Sheet post the Split and Rights Issue.
KenGen firmed 0.615% to close at 16.45 and was trading at 16.50 +0.92%
at the Close. KenGen traded 932,700 shares worth 15.376m.
Cables closed 5 cents better at 16.05 and traded 12,100 shares.
Athi River Mining traded 5th today. ARM rallied 4.32% to a New Record
Close of 193.00. ARM traded a 195.00 +5.41% session and All Time Intra
Day high today as well. ARM traded 146,200 shares worth 28.326m. The
Majority Owner gave a Bullish Interview to Reuters last week where he
signalled the Cement Scale Up was set to feed through dynamically to
the Bottom Line and a Desire to get into South Sudan. ARM has posted a
70.627% 1 Year Return ex Dividends.
Athi River Mining share price data
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 185.00
Total Shares Issued: 99,055,000
Market Capitalization: 18,523M
Bamburi Cement was unchanged at 203.00 and traded 10,000 shares.
Portland closed at 110.00 +1.85% and traded 2,300 shares and has
bounced 37.5% from its 52 week Closing Low of 80.00 in December.
EABL traded 6th. EABL eased 0.48% to close at 206.00 and traded a
203.00-207.00 range and 124,000 shares worth 25.639m. EABL opened the
Year at 201.00 closed at a New All Time High of 227.00 6th Jan and is
now 9.25% below that record Jan 6 Close.
KenolKobil firmed 0.5% to close at 9.95 and traded 1.144m shares.
Yesterdays Announcement that they had bought some Petroleum Real
estate in Uganda confirmed their Regional Ambition and increasing
Footprint. The Company gave a Bullish Earnings Steer in December.
Total traded 2,400 shares and closed at 28.75.
Mumias Sugar was unchanged at 9.80 and traded 1.232m shares.
BAT traded a 1,000 shares all at 274.00 -1.4388%.
Sameer retreated 6.56% to close at 6.40 on 19,800 shares.
Eveready fell a further 3.636% making it just under a 7.5% 2 session
Fall. Eveready closed at 2.65 and traded 30,200 shares.
Unga closed at 11.10.
Carbacid improved a shilling to close at 150.00 and traded 15,800 shares.
BOC Gases did not trade.
Crown Berger was unchanged at 32.50 and traded 1,100 shares.