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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 14th of April 2011
 
Morning
Africa

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

#Mindspeak 30th April 0930 am WestGate Mall Nu Metro Cinema
Guest Speaker HE Yoweri Museveni President of the Republic of Uganda

#Mindspeak 2011 RICH TV
http://j.mp/1mPS6v

#Mindspeak 2010 RICH TV
http://j.mp/fcdqwk

The #Star The #Week that Was
http://bit.ly/f4jAJy


Macro Thoughts

Looking for 60c on the Dollar for those CIV2010 2032 $ Bonds

10-JAN-2011 ::  Nairobi Star- Star Biz - Satchu On Shares 'Ivory
Coast's Eurobond A Good Investment'
http://j.mp/ijsTiO

Home Thoughts

Manama Bahrain - Approximately 10 Years ago, My Mother had a Brain
Aneurism on a Plane and the Plane landed in Bahrain. We all joined my
Father in the Hospital [which is the same Hospital where a great deal
has been happening this Year] and we had to turn off the Machine. I
remember the Hospital, walking around the Square. Its been a very
bitter experience watching the News from Bahrain and remembering those
Times.

read more


TOPPLING DICTATORS IN THE YOUTUBE AGE New Yorker
Law & Politics

In February, two days into the uprising against Muammar Qaddafi, a
crowd of protesters in Tobruk, in eastern Libya, created a political
icon. At a square in the city, they toppled a larger-than-life version
of Qaddafi’s Green Book—the cement pages were six feet by four
feet—and cheers went up as the monument went down. The event was
recorded on a cell phone and posted on YouTube, offering vivid proof
that the uprising was for real.

A few weeks ago, in Syria, a crowd in Daraa attacked a statue of the
late dictator Hafez al-Assad, who is the father of the current
dictator, Bashar al-Assad. You can watch it on YouTube, naturally.

The world’s first icons, predating the era of mass reproduction,
originated in times when it was at least theoretically possible to
smash every painting of a religious figure or tear down every statue
of a potentate. That’s no longer possible. Bahraini bulldozers cannot
remove the archive of YouTube clips showing security forces gunning
down unarmed protesters. The ubiquity of cell phone cameras, along
with the eternal life the Web grants to digital imagery, is reshaping
the form and impact of political iconography. Mubarak will not be the
last dictator to suffer the consequences.

Conclusions

The Power of the #Crowd [The Lilliputians and the #Mobile and the
Internet was their c21st Net] vis a vis The State [Gulliver] is
calculated like this Number of People connected via a Mobile Phone X x
Number of Messages Y = Z. Sure there is a lot of Noise to Signal but
the Graph is a Parabolic One, its very late Cycle and it is a curious
Thing that Mohamed #Bouazizi proved such an Extraordinary Tipping
Agent from deep on the Tunisian Frontier. Aly-Khan Satchu Nairobi
http://www.rich.co.ke

read more



#Gaddafi goes back to #school #Aljazeera Inside Story
Law & Politics

Inside Story, takes a step away from its usual format of discussion
and analysis, taking you to the heart of this conflict, offering a
small glimpse into mind of Muammar Gadaffi.  This episode shows a film
of Libya's leader making a trip to a school in Tripoli. His visit took
place on Saturday and was his first televised public appearance in
five days.Trying to look as relaxed as he could, even while surrounded
by bodyguards, Gaddafi toured the school at a leisurely pace,
listening to the children shouting anti-Western slogans and watching
appreciativley as they chanted: "Only God, Muammar and Libya."

#Libya The Curious #Surreal World that is #Tripoli http://www.rich.co.ke

Ajdabiya, Libya A cat scampers down an empty street past debris from
recent fighting between Libyan army forces and rebels Guardian
http://bit.ly/dKLXHI

read more


Gbagbo's fall captured in a snapshot Guardian
Law & Politics

How do the mighty fall? Well, in the case of former president Laurent
Gbagbo, they are detained in a hot bedroom in the Golf Hotel, Abidjan,
by forces loyal to his successor Alassane Ouattara.

His cheek swollen from the slap he received from a soldier, he wears
the shocked expression of a loved child who has just had his favourite
toy wrenched from his grasp. Except in this case the toy is the Ivory
Coast. Crouching on the bed by his side is his wife. Like everyone
else in the room – the soldiers, the hotel employees – she watches in
fascination the humiliation as he is exhibited for the cameras in a
gaudy Hawaiian shirt. The colours are of humidity, green and yellow,
the unrelenting tropical light from the one window picking out the
ageing jowled face so recently feared.

He's not alone in the thin gallery of images of the end of the
powerful. Mussolini and his mistress hung upside down in Milan by
Italian partisans. Ceauşescu and Elena, joint rulers of a cowed
Romania, hastily shot by his own soldiers at the end of a kangaroo
military court, she screaming "My children, my children!"

n photographs like these the powerful are relegated in a second to the
same status as the rest of us. They are no longer idols, but just
snapshots. In the case of Gbagbo, even the years seem stripped away
along with the trappings. He is suddenly older, his body shrunken in
humiliation. His fall has been fast, the humiliation instant.

1. Gbagbo's fall captured in a snapshot
2. Salvador Allende just before his death. Photograph: Keystone/Getty Images
3. Saddam Hussein is pulled from his hiding place. Photograph: EPA

read more


U.S. Says Iran Helps Crackdown in Syria WSJ
Law & Politics

Iran is secretly helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad put down
pro-democracy demonstrations, according to U.S. officials, who say
Tehran is providing gear to suppress crowds and assistance blocking
and monitoring protesters' use of the Internet, cellphones and
text-messaging.

By voicing concerns about Iran's activities, the U.S. appears to be
trying to close ranks, at least in part, with Saudi and Bahraini
leaders whose warnings about Tehran's influence in their internal
affairs have long been played down in Washington.

Iran is also sharing "lessons learned" from its 2009 crackdown on
protesters who demanded the removal of Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, the officials said. "These guys know the best practice in
this kind of situation—they've had lots of experience in this sphere,"
a U.S. defense official said of the Iranians.

Other Iranian officials appear content to let Bahrain's leaders become
more repressive, which the defense official said is "probably more
effective at getting people riled up against the king" than anything
Tehran could do.

Conclusions

It would be naive not to expect Iran to be assisting Bashar and his
Brother Maher in the recent Repression. However, it would be wise of
the US to recognise that Khalifa and Khamenei and Bashar sit atop the
same Dynamics. The Crowd [Rats in Gaddafi's Lexicon and Citizens in
mine] has tipped post #Bouazizi . We are watching the turning of the
Page and all these Regimes will be a Foot Note in the History Books.
It behoves the US to reposition itself in this 'New Normal.' It is
high time that the US started distancing itself from the Likes of
Khalifa in order to be ahead of the Imminent Reordering.
Aly-Khan Satchu
http://rich.co.ke
Nairobi

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade

Euro 1.45 -> touched $1.4520, the highest level since January 2010
Yen ¥83.62 -> was at  ¥84.54 Monday
Swiss Franc 0.8910 Tuesday, the U.S. currency dropped 1.2% against the franc
Pound 1.6340
Aussie 1.0537
Brazil Real 1.5857
Rand 6.7862 -> The rand has lost over 2 percent against the dollar
since the start of the week

Conclusions

Swiss Franc Strength.

read more



World Equity Markets at a glance
International Trade

DJIA ^DJIA 12270.99        +7.41 +0.06%
Japan: Nikkei Average ^N225        9654.76        +13.58        +0.14%
China: Shanghai Composite 00001.SS 3054.21        +3.81 +0.12%
India: BSE Sensex ^BSESN 19696.86 +434.32        +2.25%

read more



Live Crude Oil chart 107.41 Last
Commodities

Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose 86 cents, or 0.8%, to settle
at $107.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude
on the ICE futures exchange gained $1.96, or 1.6%, to $122.88 a
barrel.


Live 24 Hour Spot Gold KITCO 1462.60 Last
http://j.mp/668kfH

1475 is the All Time Record.

Soft Commodities at a Glance INO
http://j.mp/9WHKQ8

COCOA CC.K11.E       May 2011 3066        +11                +0.36%       
COFFEE KC.K11.E        May 2011 280.70        +5.70        +2.04%       
COTTON CT.K11.E        May 2011196.60        -0.75         -0.38%       
SUGAR  SB.K11.E        May 2011 24.79        -0.72         -2.90%       

Sugar May 2011 INO Chart 24.79 -0.72 (-2.90%)
http://j.mp/gLzKFG

Last Price        24.79
Contract High Date        2011-02-02 Contract High        33.11
Contract Low Date        2008-10-24 Contract Low        11.84
Expiration        2011-04-29
Open Int.        133259
First Delivery        2011-07-15

-25.128% since 2nd Feb 2011 High.


 


The Palace of Peace and Reconciliation designed by Foster and Partners
Kazakhstan
http://j.mp/gIDa9U

read more


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg Visual +0.1857% 2011
Africa

Value24,816.67       
Change134.680        
% Change0.546

-10.724% since 25th Jan 2011 High.

Dangote Group to Invest $3.9 Billion on Cement Production Bloomberg
http://bit.ly/hKiOW0

Dangote Cement Plc, Africa biggest producer of the building material,
plans to invest $3.9 billion constructing plants in countries
including Ethiopia, Tanzania, Republic of Congo and Gabon.Each
facility will have capacity to produce 1.5 million metric tons a year,
with construction work taking off “within the next three months,” the
company said in an e-mailed statement today. The company signed an
agreement to build the plants with Sinoma International Engineering
Co., a unit of China National Materials Co., the world’s largest
producer of cement-making equipment.

Separately, “the group plans to construct a 3 million metric ton per
annum plant in South Africa and one grinding plant in Cameroon with a
capacity of 1.5 million tons per annum,” the company said. Dangote is
planning a new cement line at its Obajana plant in Nigeria with
capacity of 3 million tons a year and two additional lines at Ibese in
Ogun state, increasing capacity by 6 million tons a year.

Dangote Cement is the biggest company traded on the Nigerian Stock
Exchange with a market value of 1.9 trillion naira ($12.3 billion).
The company’s parent, Dangote Industries Ltd., has a 64 percent stake
in Sephaku Holdings Ltd., a South African mineral exploration and
development company that also produces cement. Dangote Cement expects
production capacity across its operations to advance to 50 million
tons a year in the next five years.

Dangote Cement shares retreated for the first time in 13 days, losing
2.5 naira, or 2 percent, to 123 naira by the 2:30 p.m. close in Lagos,
reducing the stock’s gain this year to 2.5 percent, compared with a 1
percent increase in the Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index over
the same period.

“Investors are waiting for more news and explanations on” whether the
units will report separately or if it will remain a consolidated
company, Dare Fajimolu, a Lagos-based cement analyst with CSL
Stockbrokers Ltd., said by phone today.

DANGCEM:NL Dangote Cement PLC Bloomberg
http://bit.ly/9Vg0ye

Price 123.000
52-Wk High (10/26/10) 135.000
52-Wk Low (12/17/10)  119.000
Shares (Millions) 15,494.020
Market Cap (Millions) 1,905,764.000
Last Dividend Reported 2.250 Final
Dividend Yield (ttm) 1.625
90-Day Volatility 21.632

Dinner with Aliko Dangote Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/4hp5fn

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg Visual -25.777% 2011
http://j.mp/ejdUGn

Value5,301.47       
Change99.000        
% Change1.903

+7.0909% since 24th March.

Dollar versus Rand ForexPros 6.7773 Last
http://j.mp/1sDk25

Could not pierce 6.59 Area for the 2nd Time this Year.

Dollar versus Uganda Shilling ForexPros Live 2329.70 Last
http://j.mp/i6qB9x

Firm Post Tullow Tax Payment. Has rallied 4.004% since Posting a
Record Low in March.

Europe's future lies under Africa scientists suggest BBC
http://bbc.in/h4TiIP

Europe may be starting to burrow its way under Africa, geologists
suggest.The continents are converging; and for many millions of years,
the northern edge of the African tectonic plate has descended under
Europe.But this process has stalled; and at the European Geosciences
Union (EGU) meeting last week, scientists said we may be seeing Europe
taking a turn.If they are correct, this would signal the start of a
new subduction zone - a rare event, scientifically fascinating.

Beneath the Mediterranean Sea, the cold, dense rock at the extreme
north of the African plate has virtually all sunk under the Eurasian
plate on which Europe sits.But the African landmass is too light to
follow suit and descend.

"Africa won't sink, but Africa and Europe continue to move together;
so where is this taken up?" asked Rinus Wortel from the University of
Utrecht.

"It looks possible that on the appropriate timescale, we are
witnessing the beginning of subduction of Europe under Africa," he
told BBC News.

Volcanoes such as Stromboli indicate powerful geological forces at
work in the Mediterranean

read more


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg Visual -10.17599% 2011
Kenyan Economy

3,981.08

Sits 2.868% above 2011 Closing Low from 29th March.

Safaricom of Kenya Signs Data-Provision Accord With Banks Bloomberg
http://bit.ly/eS1oxq

Safaricom Ltd., East Africa’s biggest mobile-phone company, said it
signed an agreement with the Kenyan Bankers Association on data
provision to help speed up check-clearance times.
In terms of the accord, Safaricom has inter-linked the nation’s 42
banks to the Central Bank of Kenya via its fiber- optic network,
Sylvia Mulinge, the company’s general manager for enterprise, told
reporters today in Nairobi, the capital. She declined to give the
value of the deal.The five-year contract is renewable, KBA Chief
Executive Officer Habil Olaka said at the media briefing.

The initiative is expected to result in “a reduction of the time
required for payment of checks, a cut in the associated cost of
transit, thus speeding up the process of realization of checks,” Olaka
said.

Last week, the central bank said Kenyan lenders will on June 1 begin
converting checks to electronic format for clearing, reducing the
processing time to three days from as long as 10 days under the
current manual system. The new system will cost 650 million shillings
($7.73 million) to implement, according to the KBA.

Safaricom share price data 1st Half Results here
http://bit.ly/d9amsi

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           4.10
Total Shares Issued:          40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization:        164,000M
EPS:             0.38
PE:                 10.789

The Safaricom CEO Bob Collymore was a Guest Speaker at #Mindspeak here RICH TV
http://j.mp/1mPS6v

Kenya's KCB starts limited services to tap new users Reuters
http://j.mp/gYYpgB

Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB.NR: Quote) is offering cut-down banking via
outlets such as supermarkets and petrol stations to attract more of
the 9 million Kenyans without access to any form of financial
services.Using a cell phone and identification, users will be able to
deposit and withdraw funds, apply for loans and process salaries and
pension payments, the bank said.Sector executives and analysts say the
new model, made possible through a law passed in 2010, will add a new
revenue stream for banks, allowing them to cut transaction costs.

"This development will enable us to reach over 9 million unbanked
Kenyans who have the capacity to engage in profitable banking
relationships with us but do not have access to the formal banking
infrastructure," Martin Oduor-Otieno told an event to formally launch
the service.Eventually, it plans to link the outlets to mainstream
banking services through an internet banking platform that is in the
testing stage, allowing them to handle balance enquiries and account
statement requests, Oduor-Otieno said.

KCB share price data 1st Half Results +20.689% in 2011
http://j.mp/bshUrU

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           26.25
Total Shares Issued:          2,950,169,088
Market Capitalization:        77,442M
EPS:             2.76
PE:                 9.511

Swot Analysis FY 2010 versus FY 2009
EPS 2.76 versus 1.84 +50.00%
Dividend 1.25 versus 1.00 +25%
PAT 7.177973b versus 4.083871b

KCB CEO Martin Oduor-Otieno at #Mindspeak RICH TV
http://j.mp/1mPS6v

Kenya's 364-day T-bill yield rises to 4.998 pct Reuters
http://j.mp/eL1TKl

The weighted average yield on Kenya's 364-day Treasury bill rose to
4.998 percent at Wednesday's auction from 3.996 percent in the
previous auction, the central bank said.The bank received bids worth
1.7 billion shillings ($20.21 million) for the 5 billion shillings
offered, representing a 34 percent subscription rate.The bank accepted
bids worth 0.53 billion shillings.

Conclusions

Thats a Big Move in the Short End.

The Shilling versus The Dollar ForexPros Live 84.049
http://j.mp/ayW1Vw

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The NSE20 turned 17.51 points higher to close at 3998.59.
The All Share closed 0.27 points higher at 93.69.
Market Cap was 1.141257 Trillion versus 1.137885 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 352.44m versus 466.264m.
Nation closed at a Fresh 31 Month High, Kenya Airways bounced 5.34%.
Equity Bank was the most active share and rallied 2.857%.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     8,627,300
total turnover     36,037,904
avg price     4.18 Closing Price 4.15 +1.225%
high price     4.25
low price     4.05
last price     4.20

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 4th at the Bourse. Safaricom firmed 1.225% to close
at 4.15 and was trading at 4.20 +2.44% at the Finish Line. Safaricom
has rallied 15.277% since closing at a 52 week Low of 3.60 on 1st
March. Safaricom announced that it has inter-linked the nation’s 42
banks to the Central Bank of Kenya via its fiber- optic network.
Safaricom continues to move its Data Business Forward and like its
Parent Vodafone, it is here that it retains a very Big Lead.

Nation Media rallied 2.21% to close at 185.00 and traded a Session
High of 189.00 +4.42%. Nation traded 63,100 shares worth 11.704m.
Nation reported PBT of +32.71% at the FY Mark and todays closed is a
Fresh 31 Month Closing High which is a constructive chart Development.
Nation trades on an 18.877 Trailing PE.

Nation Media share price data FY Results here
http://j.mp/5MKGb9

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:          181.00
Total Shares Issued:          157,118,576
Market Capitalization:        28,438M
EPS:            9.80
PE:                18.469

FY 2010 versus FY 2009 Results
Turnover 9.6025b versus 8.1898b +17.2495%
Profit Before Income Tax 2.1466b versus 1.6174b +32.71%
EPS 9.8 versus 7.00
Final Dividend 4.00
Special Dividend 2.50
Interim Dividend already Paid 1.50.

Standard did not trade.
ScanGroup turned 1% higher to close at 50.50 and traded 15,600 shares.

Kenya Airways rallied 5.34% to close at 34.50 and was trading at 36.00
+9.92% and the Daily Limit at the Finish Line. Kenya Airways traded
31,900 shares and had Demand for 1000% more than was traded all day
signalling the Base is in. Kenya Airways has retreated 40.218% over 1
Year and -25.00% in 2011. Kenya Airways trades on a 7.836 Trailing PE.

Access Kenya retreated 6.79% to close at 9.60 and traded a 9.30-10.30
range and 129,300 shares. Access Kenya is -51.565% on a 1 Year Basis.
Access Kenya posted an All Time Low of 6.65 on 30th March This Year
and then rallied 57.14% from that Level through yesterday before
todays Profit Taking.

TPS Serena firmed 50 cents to close at 66.00 and traded 23,200 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank was the most actively traded share at the Bourse. Equity
Bank rallied 2.857% to close at 27.00 and closed the Session trading
at 27.50 +4.76%. Equity Bank traded a 26.50-27.75 range and 4.374m
shares worth 118.879m. Equity Bank has returned 73.687% over 1 Year
and has posted a 4.85% Return in 2011. Equity Bank trades on a 13.98
Price Earnings Ratio.

Equity Bank share price data FY Results here
http://j.mp/1tAg4B

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:          26.25
Total Shares Issued:          3,702,777,088
Market Capitalization:        97,198M
EPS:            1.93
PE:                13.601

Full Year 2010 Compared to Full Year 2009 Swot Analysis
Total Assets 143.018b versus 100.811b
Total Non Interest Income 10.438626b versus 6.506103b
Profit and Loss After Tax 7.131325b versus 4.223988b +68.82%
EPS 1.93 versus 1.14
Dividend 0.80 per share

KCB traded 2nd at the Bourse. KCB closed unchanged at 26.25 has
rallied 20.689% in 2011 and This is a 31 Month Closing High. KCB
announced that is offering cut-down banking via outlets such as
supermarkets and petrol stations to attract more of the 9 million
Kenyans without access to any form of financial services.Using a cell
phone and identification, users will be able to deposit and withdraw
funds, apply for loans and process salaries and pension payments, the
bank said.

"This development will enable us to reach over 9 million unbanked
Kenyans who have the capacity to engage in profitable banking
relationships with us but do not have access to the formal banking
infrastructure," said Martin Oduor-Otieno.KCB trades on a 9.511
Trailing PE and that looks inexpensive on that measure.

CFC StanBic bounced 3.45% to close at 60.00 and traded a session high
of 63.50 +9.48%. CFC StanBic traded 13,500 shares and had been low
ticked on turning Ex Dividend.
Barclays Bank traded 5th. Barclays Bank retreated 1.78% to close at
62.50 and traded a 62.00-64.00 range and 211,800 shares worth 13.329m.
COOP Bank eased 1.692% to close at 17.45 and traded a 17.45-17.75
range and 602,400 shares worth 10.538m. Sellers outweigh Buyers by a
Factor of 4-1. COOP Bank has retreated 15.903% since posting a 2011
Closing High of 20.75 on 25th Feb.
StanChart was unchanged at 250.00 and traded 27,100 shares.

DTB turned 1.37% higher to close at 147.00 and traded 24,300 shares
and sits just 2% off its All Time Closing High of 150.00 posted this
Year.
NIC firmed 1.71% to close at 44.50 and traded 44,800 shares.

Jubilee closed a shilling better at 216.00.
PanAfric firmed a shilling to close at 95.50 and traded 1,500 shares.
Kenya Re traded 165,500 shares and eased 10 cents to close at 9.70.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL traded 3rd. EABL eased 1.48% to close at 200.00 and traded a
196.00-201.00 range and 189,300 shares worth 38.006m. EABL started the
Year at 201.00 rallied 12.935% through Jan 6th to a New All Time
Closing High of 227.00 then slumped 28.634% through 10th March when it
closed at a 52 week Low of 162.00 before rebounding 23.456% through
today. The net Effect is EABL is 1 shilling down for the Year but it
has been a Wild Ride.

Kenya Power firmed 1.19% to close at 21.25 and traded 586,100 shares.
KenGen closed at 15.15 +0.66% and traded 188,000 shares.
Cables rose 10 cents to close at 15.10.

Mumias Sugar firmed 0.65% to close at 7.70 and traded a 7.60-7.90
range and 609,000 shares worth 4.697m. Mumias Sugar is -24.152% over 1
Year and posted a 52 week Low of 7.00 on11th March and has bounced 10%
from that date.

BAT was unchanged at 265.00 on light volume of 1,100 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2011
 
 
 
 
 
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