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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 21st of April 2011
 
Afternoon
Africa

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

#Mindspeak 30th April 0930 am WestGate Mall Nu Metro Cinema
Guest Speaker HE Yoweri Museveni President of the Republic of Uganda

#Mindspeak 2011 RICH TV
http://j.mp/1mPS6v

#Mindspeak 2010 RICH TV
http://j.mp/fcdqwk

Aly, the proposed theme will be: "The National Resistance Movement's
Achievements, Social Economic Transformation and the East African
Federation."

Macro Thoughts

Big Breakdown in the Dollar.
Big Spike in Riskier Assets.
Gold through 1500
Crude I remain a Bull.

Home Thoughts

San Isidro Nicaragua Catholics take part in a Stations of the Cross
procession during Holy Week
http://bit.ly/gDG04e

Wishing You all a Wonderful Easter.

This Fellow was My Brother Samir's Room Mate at Harvard and once I
passed through Boston and had a Night Out with the Two of them
http://bit.ly/eceFQ2

The Reluctant Fundamentalist by Mohsin Hamid

Mohsin Hamid will talk to John Mullan about his award-winning novel,
The Reluctant Fundamentalist. The story takes place in a single
evening, outside a café in the Old Anarkali district of Lahore. A
bearded Pakistani man named Changez meets an American traveller and in
an extended monalogue tells him his life story, from his student days
at Princeton, to his successful career at an elite blue chip company
and his love affair with an American woman, to his experiences in
post-9/11 New York and his ultimate disenchantment with America...

read more


Inside Daraa Aljazeera
Law & Politics

The only outside visitors the people of Daraa are allowed to receive
these days are friends and family attending funerals.

To access the city where Syria's uprising began a local reporter
simply had to tell the guards at the first checkpoint the truth: The
husband of his wife's cousin had been killed while protesting for
freedom and he was there to help bury him.

It was here on March 6 that the spark that lit the Syrian uprising was
struck: The arrest, detention and torture of 15 young boys for
painting graffiti slogans of the Arab revolution – "As-Shaab / Yoreed
/ Eskaat el nizam!" "The people / want / to topple the regime!" on a
wall, copying what they had seen on television news reports from Cairo
and Tunis.

The boys, aged between 10 and 15, were taken to one of the cells of
the local Political Security branch, under the control of General Atef
Najeeb, a cousin of President Bashar al-Assad.There in the gloomy
interrogation room the children were beaten and bloodied, burned and
had their fingernails pulled out by grown men working for a regime
whose unchecked brutality appears increasingly to be sowing the seeds
of its undoing.

"A large number of security arrived and started shooting at people and
injured some of them," said Ibrahim, a relation of one of the arrested
boys.

"When the people saw the blood, they went crazy. We all belong to
tribes and big families and for us blood is a very, very serious
issue."

The gathering, which had started out with around 200 people, quickly
swelled to several hundred as news spread around Daraa that Political
Security had opened fire.

"We were asking in a peaceful way to release the children but their
reply to us was bullets," said Ibrahim.

"Now we can have no compromise with any security branches."

Another relative of one of the children said he had witnessed the
contempt with which General Najeeb of Political Security had treated
the family delegation.

"Security prevented the ambulances from coming to take injured people
to the hospital. We will not forget that,” said Mohammed, a
28-year-old who moved back to Daraa two years ago after working in
Dubai.There were also unconfirmed reports that General Najeeb had
taunted family members, telling them to forget about their children
and go home and sleep with their wives to make some more.

Prevented from reaching hospital, the enraged protesters took the
injured to the Omari Mosque in the heart of Old Daraa.

But the marks of torture on their sons only fuelled the rage of local
tribal leaders. Now the demonstrators against the regime numbered in
their thousands.In the early hours of the morning of March 23, just 48
hours after Ghazali’s meeting in Daraa, Syrian security forces stormed
the Omari mosque, which had become a focus for the growing protest
movement. Troops threw in stun grenades before opening fire, killing
five people, including a doctor who was working to treat those injured
in previous protests.Footage on YouTube claiming to show the aftermath
of that raid shows plain clothes gun men parading around inside a
mosque with blankets lining its walls and blood stains visible.

"We want the president to punish all of those who killed and injured
the people of Daraa," said Mohammed’s mother, an Arabic-language
teacher, visibly shaken with sorrow and anger.

"Why didn't President Assad visit Daraa himself and say sorry to the
people," said Mohammed. "We are 100 per cent Syrian and he should show
us real sympathy and respect."

"He didn't ask the MPs to stand for a minute’s silence and he said
those who were killed were sacrificial martyrs," said Mohammed. "But
here in Daraa, the army and security deal with us like traitors or
agents for Israel. We hoped our army would fight and liberate the
occupied Golan, not send tanks and helicopters to fight civilians."

By April 8, the fourth consecutive Friday of protests, the chants on
the streets of Daraa were pure fury. "Hey Maher you coward, take your
dogs to the Golan," shouted the protesters, 25 of whom were killed on
that one day.

"My uncle is suspected of being a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and
so was forced to live in Saudi Arabia. Every day my grandmother prayed
to God that she could see her son, but she died without ever seeing
him again. What we want now is freedom."

Conclusions

Elton John Sorry Seems To Be The Hardest Word - 1976 YouTube
http://bit.ly/hUBHt9

read more


Dangerous Arts By SALMAN RUSHDIE
Misc.

THE great Turbine Hall at London’s Tate Modern, a former power
station, is a notoriously difficult space for an artist to fill with
authority. Its immensity can dwarf the imaginations of all but a
select tribe of modern artists who understand the mysteries of scale,
of how to say something interesting when you also have to say
something really big. Louise Bourgeois’s giant spider once stood
menacingly in this hall; Anish Kapoor’s “Marsyas,” a huge, hollow
trumpet-like shape made of a stretched substance that hinted at flayed
skin, triumphed over it majestically.

Last October the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei covered the floor with his
“Sunflower Seeds”: 100 million tiny porcelain objects, each handmade
by a master craftsman, no two identical. The installation was a carpet
of life, multitudinous, inexplicable and, in the best Surrealist
sense, strange. The seeds were intended to be walked on, but further
strangeness followed. It was discovered that when trampled they gave
off a fine dust that could damage the lungs. These symbolic
representations of life could, it appeared, be dangerous to the
living. The exhibition was cordoned off and visitors had to walk
carefully around the perimeter.

Art can be dangerous. Very often artistic fame has proved dangerous to
artists themselves. Mr. Ai’s work is not polemical — it tends towards
the mysterious.

The lives of artists are more fragile than their creations. The poet
Ovid was exiled by Augustus to a little hell-hole on the Black Sea
called Tomis, but his poetry has outlasted the Roman Empire. Osip
Mandelstam died in a Stalinist work camp, but his poetry has outlived
the Soviet Union. Federico García Lorca was killed by the thugs of
Spain’s Generalissimo Francisco Franco, but his poetry has survived
that tyrannical regime.

We can perhaps bet on art to win over tyrants. It is the world’s
artists, particularly those courageous enough to stand up against
authoritarianism, for whom we need to be concerned, and for whose
safety we must fight.

When artists venture into politics the risks to reputation and
integrity are ever-present. But outside the free world, where
criticism of power is at best difficult and at worst all but
impossible, creative figures like Mr. Ai and his colleagues are often
the only ones with the courage to speak truth against the lies of
tyrants. We needed the samizdat truth-tellers to reveal the ugliness
of the Soviet Union. Today the government of China has become the
world’s greatest threat to freedom of speech, and so we need Ai
Weiwei, Liao Yiwu and Liu Xiaobo.

Conclusions

Ours is the most cryptic of Centuries, its True Nature a Dark Secret
Imaginary Homelands - Salman Rushdie

本来不关心茉莉花的,可是害怕茉莉花的人,频频送来许多茉莉如何有害的信息,让我意识到了茉莉花是他们的最怕,好一朵茉莉花。 5:58 AM
Feb 24th via 艾未未 Retweeted by you and 65 others
http://bit.ly/eJFjqy

On 24 February,  Ai posted on his Twitter account: "I didn't care
about jasmine at first, but people who are scared by jasmine sent out
information about how harmful jasmine is often, which makes me realize
that jasmine is what scares them the most. What a jasmine!"

Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution, and how mobile phones helped it happen CS Monitor
http://bit.ly/fiX9BD

Mr. Ben Ali in a speech on Monday called the riots “terrorist acts”
that were the work of “masked gangs” operating for foreign parties.

"We are not afraid, we are not afraid, we are afraid only of God," the
crowds chanted on Tuesday in Tunis.

On Thursday, the American secretary of State said the following in Qatar.

“In too many places, in too many ways, the region’s foundations are
sinking into the sand,” said Secretary Hillary Clinton. “Those who
cling to the status quo may be able to hold back the full impact of
their countries’ problems for a little while, but not forever, If
leaders don’t offer a positive vision and give young people meaningful
ways to contribute, others will fill the vacuum.”

[As an aside, I think Hillary has so much equity in the Islamic world.
I think if she would tell her story, she would win the argument hands
down with the womenfolk, who are clearly fed up and too scared to
speak out.]

“No presidency for life,” Ben Ali, 74, said in Tunis, pledging not to
run after 2014.

By Friday evening he was gone in a puff of smoke. French President
Sarkozy would not allow him to land on French soil and it was the
Saudi Arabians who accepted the Ben Ali entourage.

The day’s seismic events in Tunisia were described by the broadcaster
Abeer Madi al-Halabi as serving “a lesson for countries where
presidents and kings have rusted on their thrones.”

I have traded emerging and frontier markets all my life and I have
noticed how often change tips not at the center but at the periphery,
and then it travels to the center. This Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia
was a 21st-century revolution. It was not televised but tweeted. I am
certain its success is entirely correlated to the ubiquity of the
mobile phone and the Internet. I recall a friend and an ambassador
telling me, "Aly-Khan, the revolution is coming. The question is, can
it be managed?"

And this Jasmine Revolution will amplify two ways: through the Maghreb
and towards the holy cities of Saudi Arabia. The question remains the
degree of the amplification. And it would be naive to expect that it
might not cross the Sahara and head south.

Change is never incremental, it tips and surges. Looking at Tunisia
and Africa, I see so many similarities. There is the widest spread
between the average age of the rulers and the average age of the
ruled. Tunisia is but the first example of the elastic band snapping.
The demographic skew is such that an average of more than 60 percent
Africans are under the age of 26. Massive urbanization pulls have
concentrated these young people in cities. Through mobile phones, and
the Internet, and social media, they are all connected.

And keep an eye on food prices. Those are sky high and not coming down
and not unlike dry kindling, awaiting a spark.

The Jasmine Revolution feels like the story of Gulliver and the
Lilliputians. Gulliver was the state. All powerful. You owned the
levers to the state, you owned it all. L'état, c'est moi. Then the
Lilliputians got connected and that connection was the net with which
to catch their Gulliver.

John Donne wrote:

"...Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee..."

read more


Bahrain's secret terror
Law & Politics

At least 32 doctors, including surgeons, physicians, paediatricians
and obstetricians, have been arrested and detained by Bahrain's police
in the last month in a campaign of intimidation that runs directly
counter to the Geneva Convention guaranteeing medical care to people
wounded in conflict. Doctors around the world have expressed their
shock and outrage.

Many of the doctors, aged from 33 to 65, have been "disappeared" –
held incommunicado or at undisclosed locations. Their families do not
know where they are. Nurses, paramedics and ambulance staff have also
been detained.Emails between a Bahraini surgeon and a British
colleague, seen by The Independent, describe in vivid detail the
threat facing medical staff as they struggle to treat victims of the
violence. They provide a glimpse of the terror and exhaustion suffered
by the doctors and medical staff.

Bahraini government forces backed by Saudi Arabian troops have cracked
down hard on demonstrators since the unrest began on 15 February – and
the harshness of their response has now been extended to those
treating the injured.

On 17 February, at the start of the demonstrations, he wrote: "It has
been a long day in the theatre with massively injured patients
equivalent to a massacre. Things are still volatile and [I] hope there
will be no more death."

Medical staff of the Salmaniya Medical Complex rush a victim of the
clashes between security forces and opposition protesters to the
hospital in Manama, Bahrain

Conclusions

Ten Years ago My Mother passed away in this Very Institution. The
Doctors and Nurses were outstanding in their Knowledge and their
Empathy. It is truly outrageous what is happening now.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.4608 -> Strongest Level in 15 Months
Yen ¥81.98
Swiss Franc 0.8855
Pound 1.6471
Aussie 1.0760 earlier reaching $1.0772, the strongest since it was
freely floated in 1983.
Rand 6.7538
India Rupee 44.30
Brazil Real 1.0763

Singapore’s dollar rose as much as 0.3 percent to S$1.2346 per U.S.
dollar, supported by the central bank’s policy of favoring a strong
currency to tame inflation. Thailand’s baht reached 29.90, its best
level of 2011, after the central bank raised interest rates yesterday
for the sixth time in less than a year. Malaysia’s ringgit reached a
13-year high of 3.0066 on speculation rate increases will resume after
consumer prices rose in March at the fastest pace since April 2009.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six major
trading partners, sank 0.6 percent to the lowest level since August
2008.

Conclusions

Dollar has gotten crushed.

Bernanke is going to talk real soft?

Euro versus the Dollar INO Chart
http://bit.ly/fue4Y3

Aussie versus The Dollar INO Chart 1.0758
http://bit.ly/hnvRyQ

read more


Apple Rises After Profit Almost Doubles Amid Demand for IPhones Bloomberg
Information & Communication Technology

Apple Inc. gained after reporting that second-quarter profit almost
doubled, lifted by sales of iPhones, and the company allayed concerns
that growth will be crimped by the earthquake in Japan and its
aftermath.

Net income in the fiscal second quarter rose to $5.99 billion, or
$6.40 a share, from $3.07 billion, or $3.33, a year earlier,
Cupertino, California-based Apple said in a statement yesterday. Sales
jumped 83 percent to $24.7 billion. Analysts predicted profit of $5.39
a share on sales of $23.4 billion, the average of estimates compiled
by Bloomberg.Verizon Wireless started selling the iPhone in February,
helping Apple sell 18.7 million units last quarter, surpassing the
16.3 million average of 13 predictions in a Bloomberg survey. Apple
said the earthquake isn’t having a “material” impact on operations and
its ability to crank out products.

“To say it’s extraordinary doesn’t do it justice,” Ryan Jacob,
chairman of the Jacob Internet Fund, which owns Apple shares, said of
Apple’s results.

Apple rose 3.2 percent in extended trading yesterday to as high as
$353.39 after the results were released. The shares had gained $4.55
to $342.41 in Nasdaq Stock Market trading.Apple, transitioning to the
new iPad 2 introduced on March 11, couldn’t make enough to meet
demand. The shortfall led to lower sales than analysts predicted.
Apple is ramping up production as it prepares to start selling the
tablet computer in 13 additional countries this month, Chief Operating
Officer Tim Cook said on a conference call yesterday.

“Their products are being embraced wholeheartedly by the entire
world,” Michael Walker, a portfolio manager at W.P. Stewart & Co.,
said in an interview. “Right now the only limit to how many products
they can sell is how many they can produce.”

Sales of the tablet in the third quarter may match those of the
holiday shopping season, when Apple sold 7.3 million, Walker said.
Apple sold 4.69 million iPads last quarter, fewer than the 6.1 million
units predicted.

“The iPad has the mother of all backlogs,” said Cook, who has taken
over day-to-day leadership of Apple while Chief Executive Officer
Steve Jobs is out on medical leave.

Still, sales of products in the country may be $200 million lower as
consumers coping with the temblor and tsunami buy fewer gadgets, he
said.

For this quarter, Apple forecast profit and sales below analysts’
predictions. Profit this quarter will be $5.03 a share on sales of $23
billion, Apple said. Analysts predicted profit of $5.25 a share on
sales of $23.8 billion.Apple typically reports profit that exceeds
analysts’ predictions, and its forecasts are often conservative. Apple
has beaten the average estimate for earnings per share for at least 28
straight quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Gross
margin, the percentage of sales left after deducting production costs,
will be about 38 percent this quarter, Apple said on the conference
call. Gross margin was 41.4 percent last quarter, compared with 41.7
percent a year earlier, Apple said.

In the second quarter, Apple sold 3.76 million Mac computers and 9.02
million iPod media players. Analysts had predicted the sale of 3.6
million Macs and 9.8 million iPods.

Android will account for 39.5 percent of global smartphone shipments
this year, compared with 15.7 percent for Apple, according to market
research firm IDC.

Conclusions

Keep hitting the Ball out of the Park.

AAPL:US Apple Inc Bloomberg share price data
http://bit.ly/h1Lf1O

Price342.410       
52-Week High (02/16/11)364.90   
52-Week Low (05/06/10)199.25   
1-Yr Return32.092%
Earnings Past 12 Months20.980   
Quarter Est. EPS (03/11) 5.35   
Quarter Est. EPS (06/11) 5.25   
Year Est. EPS (09/11) 23.14
Price/Earnings (Trailing)16.321       
Earnings Growth Rate52.700   
Estimated P/E14.600
Shares (Millions)921.278   
Market Cap (Millions)315,454.800   
Float (Millions)914.644   
Return on Equity35.284
Short Interest 11,630,896.000   

Conclusions

At an Implied Forward PE of 14.6 - It looks a Cheap Share.

read more


These Results fuelled a strong Global Equity Market Rally yesterday as can be seen from the Index Tape
World Of Finance


DJIA    12453.54+186.79+1.52%
Nasdaq    2802.51    +57.54+2.10%
Japan: Nikkei Average    9685.77    +78.95+0.82%
Stoxx Europe 600     279.06+4.64    +1.69%
UK: FTSE 100    6022.26    +125.39    +2.13%
Australia: S&P/ASX    4913.80    +54.83+1.13%
India: BSE Sensex    19619.67+148.69+0.76%
France: CAC 40    4004.62    +96.04+2.46%
Germany: DAX    7249.19    +209.88    +2.98%

read more


World Equity Markets at a glance
World Of Finance

The Dow Jones industrials rose 186.79 points, or 1.52%, to 12453.54,
the highest closing level since June 5, 2008. Investors also snapped
up growth-sensitive assets like copper and the Australian dollar.

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold for immediate-delivery climbed as much 0.4 percent to a record
$1,508.88 an ounce before trading at $1,507.15. Cash silver advanced
1.6 percent to $45.9950 an ounce, set for a seventh day of gains.

read more



Live Crude Oil chart 112.06 Last
Minerals, Oil & Energy


Crude-oil prices jumped 3.2% on Wednesday . Crude oil broke through
$112 a barrel in electronic trading on Thursday, extending sharp gains
made in the previous session amid a weaker dollar and a decline in oil
inventories.

Conclusions

Limit Long.

read more


Soft Commodities at a Glance INO
Commodities

SUGAR SB.K11.E May 2011     25.20    +0.79    +3.15%    -> However it remains
-23.89% since 2nd Feb 2011 when it closed at a 31 Year High.

read more



Omar al-Bashir: conflict in Darfur is my responsibility Guardian
Law & Politics

President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan has said for the first time that he
accepts full personal responsibility for the conflict in Darfur that
left tens of thousands of people dead.But in an exclusive interview
with the Guardian, his first with a western news organisation since he
was charged with genocide by the international criminal court (ICC),
Bashir accuses the UN-backed court of "double standards" and
conducting a "campaign of lies".

Britain and other western countries were pursuing a politically
motivated vendetta against him with the ultimate aim of forcing regime
change in Sudan as well as in neighbouring Libya, he said.

"Of course, I am the president so I am responsible about everything
happening in the country," Bashir said when asked about the conflict
in Darfur, in western Sudan, where fighting is continuing despite
international peace efforts.

"Everything happening, it is a responsibility. But what happened in
Darfur, first of all, it was a traditional conflict taking place from
the colonial days.

"As a government we fought the ones who were carrying arms against the
state, but also some of the insurgents attacked some tribes … so we
had human losses. But it is not close to the numbers being mentioned
in the western media, these numbers are in fact being exaggerated for
a reason," he said. "It is a duty for the government to fight the
insurgents, but we did not fight the people of Darfur."

The UN estimates up to 300,000 people died and about 2.7 million were
internally displaced as a result of fighting between government forces
and their Janjaweed militia allies and the separatist rebel groups in
Darfur that peaked in 2003-4. Sudan's government says about 10,000
people died and about 70,000 were displaced.

An international outcry prompted a UN investigation that led the
security council to refer the case to the ICC in 2005. In March 2009
Bashir became the first serving head of state to be indicted by the
ICC, on seven counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes.Three
counts of genocide were added in July last year, accusing Bashir in
his capacity as president and commander-in-chief of the Sudanese armed
forces. Bashir denies all the charges and has refused to surrender to
the court.

John Prendergast, co-founder of the Enough Project, a leading
anti-genocide pressure group based in Washington, dismissed Bashir's
justification of his policy in Darfur. "In my eight trips to Darfur
since 2003, the overwhelming evidence demonstrates that a
government-sponsored counter-insurgency targeted non-Arab civilian
populations by destroying their dwellings, their food stocks, their
livestock, their water sources and anything else that would sustain
life in Darfur," Prendergast said.

"Three million people have been rendered homeless as a direct result
of government policy, not tribal fighting or global warming."

The ICC describes the arrest warrant as "pending" but Bashir said the
case against him was wholly political.Sudan was not a party to the ICC
treaty and could not be expected to abide by its provisions, he said.
This was also the case with the US, China and Russia.

Bashir launched a fierce personal attack on Luis Moreno Ocampo, the
ICC's chief prosecutor since 2003, who he said had repeatedly lied in
order to damage his reputation and standing.

"The behaviour of the prosecutor of the court, it was clearly the
behaviour of a political activist not a legal professional. He is now
working on a big campaign to add more lies," he said.

"The biggest lie was when he said I have $9bn in one of the British
banks, and thank God, the British bank and the [British] finance
minister … denied these allegations.

Louise Arbour, a former UN high commissioner for human rights and
Hague war crimes prosecutor, said: "The crimes committed against
millions of civilians in Darfur cannot simply be shrugged off. If
Bashir wants to argue that he was not responsible for the atrocities,
he should go to The Hague and make his case there."

But Khartoum would not offer sanctuary to the Libyan leader, Muammar
Gaddafi, whose removal from power has been demanded by western powers,
he added. "This would cause trouble with the Libyan people which we
don't need," he said.

"We know that Libya is an important country, it has an important
location and long coast on the Mediterranean sea which is facing
Europe. In addition to that, the resources of Libya like petrol make
it important to other countries like France, Britain and Europe in
general.

"It is important for them to see a regime in Libya that would be, if
not loyal, friendly toward those countries.

Asked how the "Arab spring" uprisings might affect Sudan, where Arabic
speakers comprise a large majority of the northern population, Bashir
said the small protests calling for increased democracy lacked broad
support. "It will not have an impact like what happened in Egypt,
Tunisia or even Libya, I don't think so."

A reform process was already underway, he said.

Conclusions

Seemingly confident in the Interview.

read more


Egypt Pound Drop May Raise Debt Cost as Country Seeks IMF Aid Bloomberg
World Of Finance

Egypt’s pound may drop to a record low this year as economic growth
slows the most in almost two decades, prompting foreign investors to
snub local-currency debt and pushing up the government’s borrowing
costs.

The currency, which fell to a six-year low of 5.9758 against the
dollar on March 30, may drop to 6.3 by the end of this year, according
to the median of five estimates compiled by Bloomberg this month.
That’s a depreciation of 5.5 percent from yesterday’s spot rate of
5.9538. The average yield on nine-month treasury bills surged 206
basis points, or 2.06 percentage points, since the start of a popular
revolt on Jan. 25 to 12.52 percent yesterday, the highest since
November 2008.The rising borrowing costs and a budget deficit the
government expects to widen to a six-year high have prompted Finance
Minister Samir Radwan to turn to the International Monetary Fund and
the World Bank for as much as $6.2 billion of loans. The Finance
Ministry, facing an economy that shrank 7 percent last quarter after a
revolt that toppled President Hosni Mubarak, is stepping up sales of
fixed-income securities to local banks.

Twelve-month non-deliverable pound forwards, or NDFs, which provide a
guide to expectations, traded at 6.57 to the dollar yesterday,
reflecting bets the currency will weaken 9.3 percent. The pound has
depreciated 2.5 percent this year against the dollar, the worst
performer among 11 currencies in the Middle East and North Africa. It
dropped 5.5 percent last year.

Egypt’s net international reserves dropped for a third month in March
to $30.1 billion, the lowest since September 2007, according to
central bank data. Foreign investors held 57.7 billion pounds ($9.7
billion) in treasury bills before the uprising, central bank data
show. They trimmed their holdings by $7.5 billion in the two months
ending March 31, Cairo-based Al Masry Al Youm newspaper reported on
April 3, citing Central Bank Governor Farouk El-Okdah.

“If we see reserves continuing to fall at the pace they did in the
first quarter, there would be concern because it would mean that
capital outflows are continuing and the central bank is still
supporting the currency,” Richard Fox, the London-based head of Middle
East and North Africa Sovereign Ratings at Fitch Ratings, said April
19.

The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 8.25 percent on
March 10, the lowest in more than four years. It introduced regular
repurchasing agreements last month, setting the rate of seven-day repo
at 9.25 percent.

Egypt needs as much as $4 billion from the IMF for the remainder of
this fiscal year, which ends in June, and for 2012, Radwan said in
Washington D.C. April 18. The government is also seeking about $2.2
billion in soft loans from the World Bank, according to the state-run
Middle East News Agency.Economic growth will slow to as little as 1
percent this year, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report
on April 11, the lowest annual rate since 1992, when the economy
expanded 0.3 percent according to IMF data. The budget deficit may
widen to 9 percent of gross domestic product from 8.1 percent in 2010,
the highest level since the fiscal year that ended in June 2005,
according to Finance Ministry data.

The yield on the 5.75 percent debt due in April 2020 soared to as high
as 7.21 percent on Jan. 31. The rate is at 6.54 percent, or 107 basis
points higher than at the end of 2010. The extra yield investors
demand to hold Egypt’s dollar bonds over U.S. Treasuries climbed to
346 basis points on April 19, compared with 301 basis points for
emerging markets yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Moody’s Investors Service cut Egypt to Ba2 on Jan. 31 and to Ba3 on
March 16, the third-highest non-investment ranking. Standard & Poor’s
has a negative outlook on the nation’s BB rating, the second-highest
junk grade. Moody’s cut the outlook on Egyptian banks to negative from
stable on April 19, citing “relatively high exposure” to government
debt. Local banks may increase their holdings because they will
“likely continue to finance the government’s growing deficit as
foreign investors are reducing their exposure to Egypt.”

Conclusions

Modelling the Rebound is not easy because so much is dependent on a
Political Resolution and that Path has yet to be set.

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg Visual -30.187% 2011
http://bit.ly/ejdUGn

Value4,986.46   
Change-94.490    
% Change-1.860

Only 0.791988% above its 2011 and 52 week Low of 4,950 from 24th
March. Mubarak Connected Companies coming under further Selling
Pressure.
Looks very bearish and set to trade new Lows.

Egypt Pound versus the Dollar ForexPros Live 5.9534 Last
http://bit.ly/dXunSW

read more


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg Visual +2.236% 2011
Africa

Value25,324.53   
Change-59.570    
% Change-0.235

I think this Index has some Head Room to run up to the UpSide and
notwithstanding the Spasm of Post Election Violence we have been
witnessing.

Hundreds dead in Nigeria post-poll violence Aljazeera
http://bit.ly/hObBf2

More than 200 people have been killed and an estimated 40,000 others
displaced in violence triggered by news of Goodluck Jonathan's victory
in the Nigerian presidential election.

read more


South Africa All Share Index Bloomberg Visual +1.317% 2011
Africa

Value32,541.04   
Change14.740    
% Change0.045

read more


Mobile Pioneer Sees Rich Promise in Africa WSJ
Africa

As the chairman of the $200 million investment fund Satya Capital, Mo
Ibrahim is making aggressive investments in broadband, retail and
other industries in Africa.

Mr. Ibrahim, who founded one of Africa's first mobile networks, claims
the continent offers one of the world's best returns on investment:
Africa was the top performing region over the past 10 years in terms
of equity investments, with a 31% return compared with 25% globally,
according to the International Finance Corporation, the corporate
investment arm of the World Bank.

Mr. Ibrahim struggled to build Celtel in 1998, when few Africans were
using cellphones. Mobile-phone use in the region has since
skyrocketed, with 547.6 million mobile connections at the end of 2010,
up from 9.8 million in 2000, according to Wireless Intelligence, a
market database for industry association GSMA. Mr. Ibrahim sold Celtel
for $3.4 billion in 2005.

He points to the use of cellphones in the demonstrations that have
overthrown leaders in Tunisia and Egypt and continue to challenge
regimes in North Africa. "Mobile technology enabled civil society to
connect," he says.

Mr. Ibrahim points to figures from Global Financial Integrity, a
nonprofit Washington research institution, that show manipulation of
export and import data by companies wanting to send money out of the
continent to repatriate profits—so called trade mispricing—reached
$35.2 billion 2008.

WSJ: Are you worried about China in Africa?

Mr. Ibrahim: We just think of them as a trading partner. For decades
[raw materials and commodity] prices there didn't move. Then China
comes and prices move up, so we are happy. All that we demand from
them is transparency.

Mo Ibrahim and Bono Twitpic Nairobi
http://www.twitpic.com/19c1n4

read more


Kenya Petroleum Hires Consultant for $899 Million Upgrade Bloomberg
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Kenya Petroleum Refineries Ltd., the East African nation’s sole fuel
processor, hired an engineering consultant to carry out design work on
its proposed $899 million upgrade, the Energy Ministry said.Standard
Chartered Bank Plc is helping raise funds for the upgrade, which is
expected to be completed by 2015-16, the Nairobi-based ministry said
in a statement published in the Daily Nation newspaper today.A new
pipeline from Nairobi to the western town of Eldoret is expected to be
completed by August, the ministry said. Once commissioned, the
facility is expected to deliver fuel at 600,000 liters (158,503
gallons) per hour, compared with the current 200,000 liters per hour,
it said.Last month, Business Daily reported Standard Chartered had
been appointed to advise the refinery on a $784 million upgrade, and
the lender would raise 75 percent of the debt needed to fund the
revamp while the rest would be provided by shareholders.

Kenya raised the maximum retail price for gasoline in Nairobi, the
capital, by 7.2 percent to 108.16 shillings per liter ($1.29), the
Energy Regulatory Commission said April 14.In a bid to lower pump
prices, Kenya has cut excise duty on kerosene by 30 percent and 20
percent for diesel, Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta said April 18.

The refinery is 50 percent state-owned and the balance is held by
Essar Energy Overseas Ltd., while the pipeline company is wholly owned
by the Kenyan government.

Conclusions

The Current System amplifies Price rises and I think Prices are going
higher and this Spike is at the Beginning rather than the Middle or
the End of it.

read more


Nairobi NSE20 Bloomberg Visual -9.589% 2011
N.S.E General

4,007.73

Has rallied 3.54% since Posting a 3870 closing Low 29th March.

read more


Kenya CIH debuts listing price at 6.157 shillings Reuters
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Shares in Kenya's CFC Insurance Holdings debuted at 6.157 shillings a
share at its listing at 0630 GMT on Thursday, said CFC Stanbic
Financial Services' head of corporate and institutional sales.

"The proposed listing price is 6.157 but the actual price that the
share will trade on the Nairobi Stock Exchange may differ materially
from this estimate," Catherine Karita told Reuters.

read more


Kenya's 15-year, two-year bond yields rise Reuters
Kenyan Bonds - Long Term

Kenya's 15-year and two-year borrowing costs rose at undersubscribed
auctions on Wednesday due to a recent tightening of monetary policy,
in line with expectations, the central bank said.The yield on the
15-year bond KE15YT=RR rose to 12.388 percent from 10.923 percent at
its last sale in December, while that of a new two-year bond KE2YT=RR
also on sale came in at 7.439 percent from 5.284 percent at its last
sale in February.

The bank had offered a total of up to 18 billion shillings ($214.3
million) from the two bonds. It received bids worth a total 10.4
billion shillings for the bonds, and accepted bids worth 6.23 billion
shillings for them.

read more


Kenya's Scangroup to acquire four firms in Africa Reuters
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Kenya's top marketing firm Scangoup is poised to make four
acquisitions in the next three years across Africa and set up a new
operation to diversify its revenue base, mainly via its advertising
unit.Scangroup, part-owned by WPP, the world's largest advertising
group, saw exponential growth in 2010 after acquiring a majority stake
in Ogilvy Africa BV and Ogilvy East Africa last year, which gave it
access to eight countries.The firm, which is betting on Ogilvy to land
multinational contracts, attributed part of its overall 2010 growth to
Ogilvy which accounted for 17 percent of the group's total revenue.

"They (multinationals) are all investing and have African strategies.
They have nowhere else to grow so they are now looking at the frontier
markets very seriously," Bharat Thakrar, chief executive officer of
Scangroup told Reuters on Wednesday.

Thakrar said Scangroup -- the biggest firm in its sector in east and
central Africa -- will venture into Nigeria, Ghana, Mozambique and an
unnamed francophone country through acquisitions, with the first two
buys expected this year.Angola will be a new operation, said Thakrar,
head of the only listed advertising firm in Kenya

Scangroup, which runs a communications unit, on Tuesday reported a 54
percent jump in pretax profits to 838.4 million shillings last year.
Thakrar expressed concern at dwindling advertising by big spending
telecoms firms. The sector's spending dropped by 3 percent in 2010
compared with 2009, and this was expected to fall a further 4 percent
this year.

"The reason is simple; obviously they are under margin pressure so
they have to be more efficient by driving down costs," Thakrar said.

"So they are going to spend less in advertising."

Kenya's mobile operators have been waging price wars that have
gradually eroded their revenues.

The financial and fast moving consumer goods companies were seen
edging up to become the top advertisers and replace telecoms firms due
to rising local consumer demand.The Kenya consumer has metamorphosed
over the years with the emerging middle class being more oriented to a
lifestyle that embraces fashion and technology -- a good blend for
multinationals such as Nestle, Coca Cola and Procter & Gamble.Thakrar
said inflation, currently at 9.9 percent and expected to hit double
digits in coming months, was a big worry because it may slash
marketing and communications budgets.The cost of advertising in media
rose 3 percent in 2010 compared with 2009 with the highest levels seen
in the print medium after newsprint costs soared, forcing advertisers
to seek out more affordable options.

"Clients are now saying print is getting too expensive. We want to get
out of print. We want to find other ways of communication that are
cost-effective such as digital (social media)," said Thakrar.

ScanGroup share price data FY Results here +104.341% 1 Year
http://bit.ly/c1tljc

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          56.00
Total Shares Issued:          180,000,000
Market Capitalization:        2,610M
EPS:            2.55
PE:                21.961


 


The Shilling is at 83.95 and trading around the 84.00 Level which is a
Key Price Pivot on the Charts.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The Closing Prices are apparently delayed.
The Bourse was in a Pre Easter Slumber until 4.606m shares worth
603.302m of Carbacid shares changed hands. The 2 Day Cumulative total
shares traded is 4.913m shares which equates to 14.458% of the
Shareholding of the Company and hence is quite material. There were
Buyers for the Banks and for EABL. ScanGroup has rallied  12.6265% in
3 sessions post its Earnings Release.
The Bourse traded 761.03m worth of Business.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom

shares volume     9,603,700
total turnover     38,420,256
avg price     4.00 closing Price 4.00 -1.23%
high price     4.15
low price     3.95
last price     4.00

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 2nd overall and eased 1.23% to close at 4.00 with
9.603m shares worth 38.42m changing hands. Safaricom trades on a 10.52
Trailing PE ahead of its FY Earnings Release. Year End is March.
Safaricom continues to play Offence on Data as recently witnessed by
the Announcement of the Technology Solution for expediting the
Velocity of Payment  within the Banking System.

ScanGroup rallied a further 6.2475% to close at 59.50 and making that
a cumulative 12.6265% 3 Session Post Results Rally.

Nation eased a shilling to close at 184.00 and traded 11,400 shares.
Standard closed lower at 35.75 and traded 8,600 shares.

Kenya Airways eased 1.38% to close at 35.75 and traded 106,900 shares.
Kenya Airways remains -31.684% over 1 Year and and has rallied 12.58%
off a 52 week Closing Low of 31.75 from 31st March.

Access Kenya eased 1.06% to close at 9.25 and traded 88,400 shares.
Access Kenya is -52.229% over 1 Year but has rallied 39.09% since
trading a 6.65 All Time Low on 30th March.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank traded 3rd at the Bourse. Equity Bank closed unchanged at
27.00 and traded a 26.75-27.50 range and 897,800 shares worth 24.378m.
Reuters carried a Report where Dr Mwangi said the bank had the only
level 4 data centre -- hosting the highest level of system -- in the
region, built at a cost of 8 billion shillings ($95.41 million) over
the last three years and that the Bank is currently using only 8% of
the Capacity. Equity Bank trades on a 13.99 PE.
Barclays Bank traded 5th. Barclays Bank rallied 1.5733% to close at
64.50 and was trading session Highs of 65.00 +2.36% at the Finish
Line. Barclays Bank has a 39-12 Demand versus Supply Imbalance.
Barclays Bank has rallied 12.17% since 31st March.
COOP Bank firmed 1.4625% to close at 17.40 and traded a 17.20-17.60
range and 580,200 shares worth 10.108m. Buyers outweighed Sellers by a
Factor of 2-1 which is an Inversion of the Situation previously.
KCB bounced 1% to close at 25.25 and traded 294,200 shares. KCB has
eased back 3.809% off its 31 Month Closing High of 26.25 from last
week and remains +16.091% in 2011 versus an NSE20 that has retreated
9.589% over the same period.
StanChart bounced back 2.03% to close at 251.00 [It was low ticked
yesterday] and traded 10,200 shares.
CFC StanBic was low ticked 3.28% to close at 59.00 on 2,100 shares traded.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Carbacid which traded 307,000 shares yesterday traded 4.606m shares
worth 603.302m which was in fact 79.274% of the Entire Volume at the
Bourse today. The 2 Day Cumulative total shares traded is 4.913m
shares which equates to 14.458% of the Shareholding of the Company and
hence is quite material. Carbacid traded a 130.00-133.00 range and
closed 3.7% lower on the session at 130.00. Carbacid trades on a 14.36
Trailing PE but saw EPS ease to 4.03 versus 4.58 for the Previous
Equivalent 1st Half.  Carbacid has posted a 2.00% return over 1 Year
but has retreated 7.14% in 2011.

Carbacid Investments Ltd
http://j.mp/1G2NoC

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          135.00
Total Shares Issued:          33,980,264
Market Capitalization:        4,587M
EPS:            9.05
PE:                14.917

BOC Gases did not trade.

EABL firmed a further 0.49% to close at 206.00 making that +2.48% for
2011 versus a Market that is -9.589% for the same Period. EABL traded
70,700 shares worth 14.568m and recent Results from SABMiller
emboldened the Bulls here. EABL was the 4th most actively traded share
today at the Bourse.

KenolKobil closed unchanged at 9.70 but was trading at session Highs
of 9.85 +1.55% at the Finish. KenolKobil traded 951,000 shares.
KenolKobil trades on an 8.083 PE and continues to grow its Regional
Footprint. It looks inexpensive.
Total closed at 26.00 and traded 7,400 shares.

KPLC closed unchanged at 21.00 and traded 254,200 shares. KPLC sits
5.24% above its 52 Week Low from Last Year.
KenGen eased 0.33% to close at 15.10 and traded 125,000 shares with
Demand for 3x the Quantity traded all day.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2011
 
 
 
 
 
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