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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 13th of October 2011
 
Morning
Africa

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the
site http://www.rich.co.ke

#Mindspeak 29th October @InterConNairobi @OduorMartinO

#Mindspeak 2011 RICH TV
http://j.mp/1mPS6v

Macro Thoughts

If I were Ben Bernanke I would launch a QE3 and buy Africa.

Home Thoughts

The Girls Grand Mother has come from Blantyre en route to London. And
I do not know what it is between GrandParents and Grandchildren but
the Bond is always very close. I have not yet told Grandma about
Hannah and my Apple and her nascent career in Films and how Grannie
better keep well away from that Lap Top, otherwise she will be filmed
and joining Keza, Sara and Jamal in the Video Library.

read more


Ai Weiwei Tops Annual Power 100 Art List as Damien Hirst Jeff Koons Slide Bloomberg
Law & Politics

Ai Weiwei, the Chinese artist and activist who was imprisoned for 81
days earlier this year, topped ArtReview’s annual ranking of the 100
most influential people in the art world, the Power 100, published
today.The Beijing-based artist -- who last year paved Tate Modern’s
monumental Turbine Hall with 100 million porcelain sunflower seeds --
“was ranked number one as a result of his activism as much as his art
practice,” London-based ArtReview said in an e-mailed release, noting
that artists no longer worked in “a privileged zone” defined by
galleries or museums.

Conclusions

His Extraordinary c21st Power is to be seen in the way and in the
Paranoia the Chinese State exhibits in response to Him.

read more


Saudis vow revenge for Iran's 'plot' Independent
Law & Politics

Saudi Arabia vowed yesterday that Iran would "pay the price" for an
alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States.

In London, meanwhile, the former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki
al-Faisal said that the evidence against Iran was "overwhelming... and
clearly shows official Iranian responsibility for this. Somebody in
Iran will have to pay the price."

s US officials speculated to Reuters that it was "more than likely"
that the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei knew of the plot, the
Saudi-backed news network Al-Arabiya quoted official sources as
claiming that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the "mastermind" behind it and
had recently suggested Iran "resume its assassination policy". Iran's
foreign minister, Ali-Akbar Salehi, said the best reaction to the
claims would be to "ignore" them.

Some said that the recruitment of Mansour Arbabsiar, a car salesman
with dual Iranian and US citizenship who was to enlist hired hitmen
from Mexican drug gangs, made no sense as a strategy for the Quds
Force, who are usually depicted as a highly efficient and
sophisticated organisation.

Incredulity was nowhere greater than in Mr Arbabsiar's home state of
Texas. Friends knew him as "Jack" because his name was too hard to
pronounce, said David Tomscha, who briefly owned a second-hand car
business with him in Corpus Christi.

He was likeable if somewhat lazy, but "certainly no mastermind," Mr
Tomscha told the Associated Press. "I can't imagine [him] thinking up
a plan like that. He didn't seem all that political, he was more of a
businessman."

Conclusions

My Takeaway is this. For Folks who are supposedly at the Cutting Edge
of Nuclear Technology, these Iranian Folks are not that bright. Or,
The Propaganda Arm of the US Government has been hijacked by the House
of Saud.
Aly-Khan Satchu
http://www.rich.co.ke
Nairobi

read more


Blackberry crumbles A breakdown in communications
Information & Communication Technology

A masterclass in corporate stonewalling, with press releases
acknowledging that some users are "experiencing issues," while
apologising for "any inconvenience"

Conclusions

For a Company operating at the Leading Edge of the c21st, which is
best characterised as a Communications Century, RIM is seemingly stuck
somewhere in a Time Warp [somewhere in the c19th] when it comes to
their Ability to communicate with their Customers.

RIM:CN share price data Bloomberg -51.72% 1 Year Return
http://j.mp/ofpMn5

24.2700 CAD 0.8700 -3.46%
Current P/E     4.2000  versus 14.1727 Sector Average
Market Cap (M)     12,720.55

Conclusions

Its more over for RIM than it is for Bashar Assad.

RESEARCH IN MOTION LIMITED versus the Nasdaq I year Chart Yahoo Finance
http://j.mp/rkZyVU

The Tape is Your Telescope.

read more


Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3804 euro yesterday rallied 1.1 percent against the dollar
Yen ¥77.11
Swiss Franc 0.8964
Pound 1.5740
^DXY 76.96
Aussie 1.0193 touched 1.0233 after the unemployment rate fell for the
first time since March jobless rate fell to 5.2 percent from 5.3
percent
India Rupee 48.955
Brazil Real 1.7749
South African Rand 7.7949

Slovakia is set to approve Europe’s enhanced bailout fund today or
tomorrow, completing the ratification process across the 17 euro
countries.

The euro has climbed 1.8 percent over the past month, the best
performer after the Swedish krona among 10 developed market currencies
tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes

Euro versus The Dollar INO 3 Month Chart 1.3795 Last
http://j.mp/bQ9veD

Euro touched 1.3834, the strongest since Sept. 16

I would be testing a small Euro short here.

Aussie Dollar 3m Chart INO 1.0185 Last
http://j.mp/prQLGh

Its a Growth Proxy.

Euro Swiss 3 Month Chart INO 1.2375 Last
http://j.mp/ma2e9X

Worth Keeping an Eye on.

read more


World Equity Markets At A Glance
World Of Finance

DJIA    11518.85    +102.55    +0.90% Dow is up 5.6% this month the fifth-best
start to October since 1900 and is down just 0.5% on the year
Japan: Nikkei Average    8821.75    +82.85    0.95%
Stoxx Europe 600 239.16    +3.88    +1.65% The Stoxx Europe 600 finished up
1.65% after being down as much as 1% at its intraday low
UK: FTSE 100    5441.80    46.10    +0.85%
China Shanghai Composite    2431.32    11.32    +0.47%
Hong Kong: Hang Seng    18680.08    +350.62    +1.91%
India: BSE Sensex    16990.97    32.58    +0.19%
France: CAC 40    3229.76    76.24    +2.42%
Germany: DAX    5994.47    129.46    +2.21%
S. Africa: FTSE/JSE Africa All Share    31129.95    326.07    +1.06%

Asia stocks rose for a sixth day

Conclusions

Its been a Strong Recovery but it is now looking stretched.

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities

Live Crude Oil chart 84.82 Last
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

Crude for November delivery dropped as much as 93 cents to 84.64 a
barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and
was at 85.01 at 4 p.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday fell 24
cents, or 0.3 percent, to 85.57.

Gold Live KITCO 1670.79
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

read more


Sunflowers were planted where there used to be a rice field Fukushima Photo Booth
Misc.

Sunflowers were planted where there used to be a rice field as an
offering for the dead, and in the hope of reducing the radiation
level. In September, scientists announced that sunflowers were not
effective in absorbing radiation

read more


Zambia wants 35 pct stake in mines: minister Reuters
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Zambia will negotiate larger shareholding in foreign mining companies
and plans to revise the tax collection mechanism to improve
transparency and maximize benefits for the country, the minister of
mines said.

"We would like to increase our shareholding to at least 35 percent in
all the projects but that will depend on how well we negotiate with
the mining firms," mines minister Wylbur Simuusa told Reuters in an
interview late on Wednesday.

Simuusa said the decision to seek a higher stake in the mines did not
amount to nationalization of the mining sector in Africa's top copper
producer.

Dollar versus Zambia Kwacha ForexPros Live 4964.45 Last
http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-zmk-chart

read more


Troubled Exit for Banda Africa Confidential
Law & Politics

Sata owes victory to the fear of a return to rampant corruption; he
must also thank those who persuaded Banda not to rig the election

Rupiah Bwezani Banda was on the verge of declaring himself winner of
the 20 September presidential poll after realising he had lost the
elections to Michael Chilufya Sata’s Patriotic Front (PF), sources
close to the presidency have told Africa Confidential. It was only the
intervention of top advisors, electoral officials, founding President
Kenneth David Kaunda, and United States and European Union diplomats
on 22 September that persuaded Banda not to subvert the results and
stay in office.

read more


The digital revolution in sub-Saharan Africa Aljazeera
Information & Communication Technology

Much has been written about the role technology played in bringing
social and political change across much of the Middle East and North
Africa, but less is known about the technological revolution that is
taking place and transforming people's lives in sub-Saharan Africa.It
is estimated that by 2015 sub-Saharan Africa will have more people
with mobile phone network access than electricity access at home.
People with internet and no home electricity will reach 138 million,
according to the Cisco Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for
2010-2015.This deep and rapid mobile penetration is catapulting
developing countries into the 21st century and bringing new and
previously unimagined opportunities.

Conclusions

Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution, and how mobile phones helped it happen
CS Monitor By Aly-Khan Satchu January 15, 2011
http://j.mp/mZGvAc By Aly-Khan Satchu

And this Jasmine Revolution will amplify two ways: through the Maghreb
and towards the holy cities of Saudi Arabia. The question remains the
degree of the amplification. And it would be naive to expect that it
might not cross the Sahara and head south.

Change is never incremental, it tips and surges. Looking at Tunisia
and Africa, I see so many similarities. There is the widest spread
between the average age of the rulers and the average age of the
ruled. Tunisia is but the first example of the elastic band snapping.
The demographic skew is such that an average of more than 60 percent
Africans are under the age of 26. Massive urbanization pulls have
concentrated these young people in cities. Through mobile phones, and
the Internet, and social media, they are all connected.

And keep an eye on food prices. Those are sky high and not coming down
and not unlike dry kindling, awaiting a spark.

The Jasmine Revolution feels like the story of Gulliver and the
Lilliputians. Gulliver was the state. All powerful. You owned the
levers to the state, you owned it all. L'état, c'est moi. Then the
Lilliputians got connected and that connection was the net with which
to catch their Gulliver.

John Donne wrote:

"...Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee..."

read more




Some suspect that politicians playing the foreign exchange markets are pushing down the shilling’s value Africa Confidential
World Currencies

For example, Kenya’s economy has rebounded quite strongly since the
political crisis of 2007-08 and the global crisis in the same period
but the government has run fiscal deficits of 5-6% a year and now has
a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 50%. With elections next year, the
governing coalition parties want to raise money and don’t want the
blame for austerity measures. With a regional drought, spiralling food
prices and a plummeting currency, something will have to give. Some
suspect that politicians playing the foreign exchange markets are
pushing down the shilling’s value.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar ForexPros Live 103.90
http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes-chart

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

Kenyan finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta said on Thursday the Treasury
would act decisively to stem instability in the forex market, in a bid
to stop the shilling from losing more ground.Kenyatta said the finance
ministry had begun cutting unnecessary government spending and the
central bank governor pledged to use vertical repurchase agreements to
deal with liquidity. That 107.00 Level might prove to have been a
'Blow Off' Bottom. The Shilling was last trading at 102.00.
The NSE20 eased 15.43 points to close at 3290.90 making that -25.767% in 2011.
The Nairobi All Share fell 0.84 points to close at 68.52.
Market Cap was 873.652b versus 884.441b.
Equity Turnover was 108.038m versus 257.364m.
The Outperformer at the Nairobi Stock Exchange has been the
Agricultural Sector.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Williamson Tea was the biggest Gainer at the Bourse today. Williamson
Tea rallied 7.448% to close at 202.00 and traded 15,200 shares. George
Williamson trades on a Trailing PE of 2.073 and has rallied 17.441% in
2011  and 24.709% when the Final Dividend is factored in. Thats
50.476% worth of Outperformance in 2011 versus the NSE20 Index.

Williamson Tea share price data here
http://j.mp/5sMXh0

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          202.00
Total Shares Issued:          8,756,320
EPS:            97.45
PE:                2.073

Rea Vipingo improved a further 2.29% to close at 17.85. Rea Vipingo
has rallied 28.88% since the 4th of October. Rea Vipingo has posted a
7.27% 2011 Return and will report FY Results ending September early
November. Rea Vipingo reported EPS of 2.56 H1 [versus 1.12 FY 2010]
and Investors are anticipating Strong Results at the FY Mark.

Rea Vipingo share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mw%3D%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          17.85
Total Shares Issued:          60,000,000
Market Capitalization:        1M
EPS:            1.12
PE:                15.938
6 Months Ended 31st March 2011 versus 6 Months 31st March 2010
Revenue 974.725m versus 660.385m
Gains arising from Biological Gains 38.508m versus [14.027m]
Gross Profit 500.072m versus 209.146m
PBT 227.695m versus [6.988m]
PAT 153.402m versus [7.754m]
EPS 2.56 versus [0.13]

Sasini Tea firmed 2.79% to close at 12.90 and traded 20,000 shares.
Sasini Tea has posted a 5.306% 2011 Return.

Sasini Tea and Coffee share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NA%3D%3D

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          12.90
Total Shares Issued:          228,055,504
EPS:            4.30
PE:                3.000

Kakuzi was low ticked 2.72% to close at 71.50 on 1,100 shares. Offers
are in fact at 80.00 and above.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM
shares volume 2.124m
CLOSING PRICE 3.05
high price     3.10
low price     3.05
last price     3.05

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 4th and eased 1.61% to close at 3.05 and traded
2.124m shares. Safaricom will reporting its H1 Results in early
November.

TPS Serena closed 1.724% firmer at 59.00 and traded 55,100 shares. TPS
Serena is not positioned in the Tourism Red Zone.
Kenya Airways retreated 1.834% to close at 26.75 and traded 46,100
shares. Kenya Airways trades on a 3.4931 Trailing PE and has retreated
43.085% in 2011.
ScanGroup was low ticked 8.176% to close at 36.50 on just 2,000 shares.
Access Kenya fell a further 1% to close at 4.95 and an All Time Closing Low.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank was once again the most active Counter at the Bourse.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 17.00 as it has since the 6th of
October. Equity Bank traded a 17.00-17.50 range and 2.326m shares.
Equity Bank is finding good support at this 17.00 Level, which is also
an 18 month closing Low.
Kenya Commercial Bank traded 2nd. KCB eased a further 1.3% to close at
15.20 and traded a 14.90-15.65 range and 1.305m shares. KCB trades on
a 5.507 Trailing PE and the Price is in disequilibrium.
Barclays Bank firmed 0.934% to close at 10.80 and traded 294,000 shares.
StanChart eased a shilling to close at 176.00 and traded 1,400 shares.
COOP Bank eased 5 cents to close at 14.00 and traded 354,300 shares.

City Trust fell 10% and limit to close at 180.00. City Trust trades on
a 29.412 Trailing PE and we it on the NSE Bank PE Sector Average it
would be trading at a price of 55.08.

CITY TRUST share price data and Results here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NDQ%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          180.00
Total Shares Issued:          5,728,314
Market Capitalization:        1M
EPS:            6.12
PE:                29.412

Transcentury fell 8.33% to close at 30.25 and traded 11,000 shares.
Britak eased 1.709% to close at 5.75 and traded 115,700 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL traded 3rd. EABL retreated 1.9% to close at 155.00. EABL has now
retreated 22.885% in 2011 and this is a 17 Month Closing Low. EABL
traded a 154.00-158.00 range and 65,400 shares worth 10.161m.

Mumias Sugar eased 0.8% to close at 6.20 and traded 516,400 shares.

BAT eased 1.71% to close at 229.00 and traded 5,500 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2011
 
 
 
 
 
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