The tinderbox situation in Afghanistan threatened to ignite yesterday
as fresh violence hit the country, and it emerged that a former
policeman suspected of killing two US Nato officers in Kabul's
interior ministry on Saturday spent two months at a religious school
in neighbouring Pakistan before the attack.

Protests continued in Afghan cities and spread to Pakistan yesterday
after the US admitted that copies of the Koran were accidentally
burned by US forces at Bagram airbase.

Conclusions

The Tipping Point Malcolm Gladwell
http://j.mp/yBOjQi

Gladwell defines a tipping point as "the moment of critical mass, the
threshold, the boiling point."[1]

We seem to be hurtling towards a Tipping Point.

A Boy watches events from a Bakery Afghanistan
http://j.mp/wpNxgB

Remi Ochlik
http://j.mp/zCrL5C

Remi Ochlik Photo Journalism
http://j.mp/yHNwC7

TORONTO — Deported from Kenya last week due to security concerns,
controversial Canadian Muslim preacher Bilal Philips nonetheless
delivered his planned speech to Nairobi’s biggest mosque on Saturday
via Skype.

“I advised against any violent demonstrations which may cost the loss
of lives over this minor issue,” Mr. Philips told the National Post on
Sunday. “I further advised the Muslim community to take the necessary
steps to combat ‘Islamophobia.’ ”

A Jamaican-born Muslim convert, Mr. Philips was expelled from Germany
last year for allegedly advocating the killing of homosexuals. Britain
and Australia have also barred him from their countries and the U.S.
has named him as a suspected terrorist co-conspirator.

Last Wednesday, hours after arriving in Nairobi for a speaking tour,
he was expelled to Qatar, where he lives.

Euro 1.3449
Japan Yen 81.17
Swiss Franc 0.8958
Dollar Index ^DXY 78.45
Pound 1.5866
Aussie 1.0685
India Rupee 49.035
South Korea Won 1124.80
Brazil Real 1.7170
Egypt Pound 6.0361
South Africa Rand 7.5856

The Yen reached an almost nine-month low after the BOJ, which has
struggled for more than a decade against deflation, said on Feb. 14 it
aimed for 1 percent annual gains in consumer prices and would add 10
trillion yen ($123 billion) to the economy. Traders are paying record
premiums for options to buy the dollar versus the yen for three, six
and 12 months. Bullish bets on Japan’s currency have fallen 70 percent
from the end of last month.

Euro Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 1.3452 Last
http://j.mp/axrmvK

Dollar versus Yen INO 3 Month Chart 81.128 Last
http://j.mp/gv9WjE

Euro versus Yen 3 Month Chart INO 109.13 Last
http://j.mp/zjooik

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials rose 1.1
percent to settle at 715.52 at 3:45 p.m. New York time. The gauge
climbed for the seventh straight session, the longest rally since
April. Earlier, the measure reached 715.77, the highest since May
5.This week, a gauge of aluminum, copper, nickel, lead, zinc and tin
rose 5.1 percent, the most in a month. On Feb. 21, the measure climbed
2.8 percent, the most in six weeks, after Greece won a second bailout.
China is the top metal consumer.

Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 109.42 Last
http://j.mp/ytN9Wb

Crude oil for April delivery rose 6.3 percent in its biggest weekly
rally since Dec. 23. Crude’s seven-day advance was the longest since
the period ended Jan. 6, 2010. The front- month contract increased
$1.94, or 1.8 percent, to $109.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange on Feb. 24, the highest settlement since May 3.

Live Crude Oil chart
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

Gold Live KITCO 1776.22 Last
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

President al-Assad emphasized that the attack Syria is facing is a
media attack. "However," the President continued, "media,
notwithstanding its importance, doesn't outdo the reality. They may be
stronger in space, but we are stronger on earth. Still, we want to win
the earth and the space."

A ground-level view of Homs FP
http://j.mp/wYnTgV

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Voters booed Senegal's president so loudly when
he went to cast his ballot Sunday that his bodyguards whisked him
away, another sign of how much his popularity has dipped ahead of an
election that has sparked weeks of riots.

But in a scene that longtime country watchers say they have never
witnessed before in Senegal — where respect for the elderly is deeply
ingrained — Wade was jeered and insulted when he arrived to vote. He
didn't give his customary press conference, as his security quickly
got him to safety.

"I feel sad because our democracy doesn't deserve this," said the
president's daughter Syndiely Wade, who stayed back in the polling
station in the neighborhood of Point E to talk to reporters. "My
father doesn't deserve this."

Police in riot gear AP
http://j.mp/zUIMHv

Anti-government protesters carry a banner reading "The Senegalese
revolution said to liberate the people" Dakar Senegal
http://j.mp/yGsTg6

Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade is surrounded by supporters and
security as his convoy travels between campaign stops ap
http://j.mp/zqxbbH

'Go away, old man,' dozens of opposition supporters shouted as the
leader arrived
http://j.mp/y2KV2G

"I am not docile ... I am not a Negro service boy".
http://j.mp/zddoqd

Photos capture the mood of capital city Dakar just days before the
presidential election. Azad Essa
http://j.mp/yloVmq

Dakar Senegal
http://j.mp/yv2GLp

Engineers and visitors tour an exploratory well in Somalia's
semi-autonomous Puntland region. Photograph: Reuters

Britain is involved in a secret high-stakes dash for oil in Somalia,
with the government offering humanitarian aid and security assistance
in the hope of a stake in the beleaguered country's future energy
industry.Riven by two decades of conflict that have seen the emergence
of a dangerous Islamic insurgency, Somalia is routinely described as
the world's most comprehensively "failed" state, as well as one of its
poorest. Its coastline has become a haven for pirates preying on
international shipping in the Indian Ocean.

David Cameron last week hosted an international conference on Somalia,
pledging more aid, financial help and measures to tackle terrorism.
The summit followed a surprise visit by the foreign secretary, William
Hague, to Mogadishu, the Somali capital, where he talked about "the
beginnings of an opportunity'' to rebuild the country.

The Observer can reveal that, away from the public focus of last
week's summit, talks are going on between British officials and Somali
counterparts over exploiting oil reserves that have been explored in
the arid north-eastern region of the country. Abdulkadir Abdi Hashi,
minister for international cooperation in Puntland, north-east Somalia
– where the first oil is expected to be extracted next month – said:
"We have spoken to a number of UK officials, some have offered to help
us with the future management of oil revenues. They will help us build
our capacity to maximise future earnings from the oil industry."

British involvement in the future Somali oil industry would be a boon
for the UK economy and comes at a time when the world is increasingly
concerned about the actions of Iran, the second-biggest oil producer
in Opec.

Hashi, in charge of brokering deals for the region's oil reserves,
also said Somalia was looking to BP as the partner they wanted to
"help us explore and build our oil capacity". He added: "We need those
with the necessary technical knowhow, we plan to talk to BP at the
right time."

Somali prime minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali said his government had
little choice but to entice western companies to Somalia by offering a
slice of the country's natural resources, which include oil, gas and
large reserves of uranium. "The only way we can pay [western
companies] is to pay them in kind, we can pay with natural resources
at the fair market value."

Britain is not the only country looking to develop Somalia's vast
natural resources. Last month oil exploration began in Puntland by the
Canadian company Africa Oil, the first drilling in Somalia for 21
years. Hashi, who sealed the Africa Oil deal, said the first oil was
expected to be extracted within the next "20 to 30 days".

The company estimates there could be up to 4bn barrels (about $500bn
worth at today's prices) in its two drilling plots. Other surveys
indicate that Puntland province alone has the potential to yield 10bn
barrels, placing it among the top 20 countries holding oil. Chinese
and US firms are among those understood to have also voiced interest
about the potential for oil now that, for the first time in 20 years,
the country is safe enough to drill.

Yet it is the extent of oil deposits beneath the Indian Ocean that is
most exciting Somali officials. One said the potential was comparable
to that of Kuwait, which has more than 100bn barrels of proven oil
reserves. If true, the deposits would eclipse Nigeria's reserves –
37.2bn barrels – and make Somalia the seventh largest oil-rich nation.

On Thursday, the last day of the London conference, BP and Shell
unveiled an initiative to support job-creation projects in the coastal
regions of Somalia. A subsidiary of Shell was thought to have acquired
exploration concessions in Puntland before the descent into
lawlessness in 1991.

A BP spokesman said there were "no plans" to work in Somalia and no
official had recently visited the country.

Conclusions

which is accurate but

I thank Dr. Richard Bridge Head of Government and Political Affairs BP
for an excellent Dinner at Pango at the Fairview Feb 3rd 2011
http://j.mp/yDYvBl

And I had a Rather Fine Steak at the Fairview
http://www.twitpic.com/8f15d0

HSM Press Office ‏ @HSMPress
Contracts to Range Resources, Africa Oil, et al, who are looking to
plunder the mineral resources in Dharoor &Nugaal valleys are
non-binding
HSM Press Office ‏ @HSMPress
Western companies must be fully aware that all exploration rights &
drilling contracts in N.Eastern #Somalia are now permanently nullified

5,269.65
+127.84
+2.49%
Year To Date:    +42.09%
52-Week Range:    3,577.79 - 6,308.65    
1-Year:    -6.67%

Conclusions

World's Best in 2012.

Hosni Mubarak's mafia ending Guardian
http://j.mp/waqS2e

An old man, obduracy etched on every feature, lies on a hospital bed
in the dock of a courtroom. He wears shades. His hair is well dyed.
His hands are folded over the bed-covers and the cuffs of his pyjamas
peep discreetly from beneath the sleeves of his dressing gown. His two
sons, also on trial, take up bodyguard positions meant to shield him
from the cameras.

This is Hosni Mubarak: president of Egypt for 30 years, and deposed
and on trial for one. Will this mafia boss image be the last one we
have of him?

SCAF head Hussein Tantawy, kissing Hosni Mubarak, 1980s or early 1990s
http://j.mp/A47LPk

34,260.76
+152.56
+0.45%
Year To Date:    +7.21%
52-Week Range:    28,305.41 - 34,460.57    
1-Year:    +10.82%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg Year To Date -1.13%
http://j.mp/nT4PXh

20,495.91
+69.71
+0.34%
Year To Date:    -1.13%
52-Week Range:    19,414.89 - 26,224.56    
1-Year:    -18.66%

Petrodar Operating Co., operator of an oil pipeline that runs from
South Sudan through Sudan to the Red Sea, named Baidzawi Chemat as its
acting president after the southern government expelled his
predecessor, Liu Yingcai.

South Sudan’s petroleum minister, Stephen Dhieu Dau, ordered the Liu’s
expulsion on Feb. 20, saying he sided with Sudan in a dispute over oil
and gave “limited cooperation” in implementing a southern decision to
shut down crude output. Petrodar’s biggest shareholders are China’s
state-owned China National Petroleum Co. (CNPZ) and Kuala Lumpur-based
Petroliam Nasional Bhd. (PET)

“There remains significant room for a deterioration of the position of
operating companies given South Sudan’s recent decision to shut down
oil production,” said Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, a London-based analyst
with Control Risks. “The authorities have long viewed Asian national
oil companies as allies of Khartoum.”

South Sudan, which gained control of about 75 percent of the formerly
united Sudan’s 490,000 barrels a day of output at independence in
July, shut down production last month. It took the action because
Sudan loaded 2.6 million barrels of southern crude onto four ships and
diverted about 120,000 barrels to its refinery through a “tie-in”
pipeline it connected to Petrodar’s pipeline. President Umar
al-Bashir’s government in Khartoum, the Sudanese capital, said it
confiscated the oil to make up for unpaid fees.

The written order from Dau also accused Petrodar of “cooperation with
Sudan in illegal loading” of South Sudan’s crude at the Port Sudan
export terminal.

Petrodar, in a Feb. 19 statement, said it “issued a written order to
its staff not to comply with the forced lifting” that was supervised
by Sudanese security forces.

The company said it also wrote to the Sudan government stating its
“disagreement” with the government’s construction of the tie-in
pipeline, and said the crude was diverted “without any involvement of
Petrodar staff.”

Dau said Petrodar refused to fully relocate its headquarters to the
South Sudanese capital, Juba, from Khartoum. The company has also
failed to comply with a decree by South Sudanese President Salva Kiir
that the company transfer the stake in Petrodar held by Sudapet Co.,
Sudan’s state oil company, to South Sudan’s Nile Petroleum Corp, he
said.

Conclusions

Sudan Oil wars and the Lamu Pipeline 30th January The Star
http://j.mp/zcww13

THE current stand off between Juba and Khartoum made me recall Henry
Kissinger, who said the following about Bashar Assad’s father
President Hafez Assad of Syria.

“Assad never lost his aplomb. He ne- gotiated daringly and tenaciously
like a riverboat gambler to make sure that he exacted the last sliver
of available con- cessions. I once told him that I had seen
negotiators who deliberately moved themselves to the edge of a
precipice to show that they had no further margin of manoeuvre. I had
even known negotia- tors who put one foot over the edge, in effect
threatening their own suicide. He was the only one who would actually
jump off the precipice, hoping that on his way down he could break his
fall by grabbing a tree he knew to be there. Assad beamed.”

I will leave it to you to calculate who might be Hafez, Salva or
Bashir? Or both?

Pagan Amum told reporters in Addis Ababa on Saturday: “Tomorrow the
shutdown will be complete and what will be remaining to be done the
day after
is finishing the cleaning and flushing of facilities.”

South Sudan is shutting down its oil production, last put by officials
at 350,000 bpd in November. Approxi- mately 99 per cent of the new
state’s income is from the sale of oil. During the week, Reuters
reported that Khartoum also sold at least one cargo of crude seized
from South Sudan at millions of dollars discount to the official price
charged by the South and is offering more.

Earlier in the week, Barnaba Marial Benjamin of South Sudan announced
that the South and Kenya signed a memorandum of understanding to build
an oil pipeline to the Kenyan port of Lamu.

Construction of the pipeline will begin “as soon as sources of funding
are made available,” which should take about a month, he said. A lot
of punters who had snaffled up land around the proposed Lamu port must
have been popping their best bottles of Dom Pérignon champagne.

Minister Benjamin is reckoning that the pipeline could be completed in
10 months. Thats a bullish call. The biggest problem is surely the sky
high risk of Asymettric guerilla type sabotage. I would think its
highly likely. Therefore, Insurance for the pipeline might well prove
punitive.

However, the point remains that we in Kenya have an embedded
geopolitical advantage in this region, that being the route to the
sea, it is like the jugular vein for many our neighbours.

Neither Juba or Khartoum are AAA credits. Khartoum has lost a great
chunk of their revenues. The South can hardly afford to lose the cash
flow that comes from the sale of its 350,000 barrels per day. And
that’s why I started with Henry Kissinger’s description “I had even
known negotiators who put one foot over the edge, in effect
threatening their own suicide.’

Now there is a back story to this. You see through 2011, Sudan
provided China with 5 per cent of its total oil imports. You will
recall that 35,000 Chinese workers were evacuated out of Libya in 72
hours last year and China was rolled back and right out of Libya. Not
so long ago, President Obama authorised the deployment to Uganda of
approximately 100 combat-equipped US forces to help regional forces
ostensibly to “remove from the battlefield” – meaning capture or kill-
Lord’s Resistance Army’s leader Joseph Kony.

Then in January this year - President Obama issued this memorandum:

“By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and
the laws of the United States, including section 503(a) of the Foreign
Assistance Act of 1961, as amended, and section 3(a)(1) of the Arms
Export Control Act, as amended, I hereby find that the furnish- ing of
defense articles and defense serv- ices to the Republic of South Sudan
will strengthen the security of the United States and promote world
peace,” said the official text of Obama’s decision.

It seems to me the Sudan has become the epicentre of the US and
China’s collision in Africa and that we are watching a 21st century
high stakes proxy war.

I have to surmise that the US is under- writing Salva’s overdraft.
What with all these demobbed soldiers roaming around Juba, it would be
suicide to have them unpaid for any length of time. I wonder who is
underwriting Bashir? Maybe, he is calling in favours in Libya?

One of my favourite films is 1978 Michael Cimino movie, ‘The Deer
Hunter’ and its about friends from a steel town in America who go to
fight in Vietnam. Watch this clip from #YouTube can’t take my eyes off
you /The Deer Hunter Bar Scene http://j.mp/4E2Cka to get a flavour.
Christopher Walken becomes unhinged and he starts to play Russian
Roulette, where one or two out of six chambers are loaded with live
bullets. He can’t stop. Of course, in such an adven- ture you have a
finite life.

Par Value:                  20/-
Closing Price:           17.00
Total Shares Issued:          1.73464b
EPS:             3.4079
PE:               4.988

H1 Dec 2011 versus H Dec 2010
Turnover 47.128703b versus 31.220702b
Profit Before Tax PBT 3.404198b versus 3.076594b
Profit After Tax 2.284183b versus 2.220604b
EPS 1.17 versus 2.20 [Diluted 1.02]
Interim Dividend 0.20

The Go Africa Pass will allow you to access 45 destinations throughout
Africa using one ticket (min-3 and max-16 coupons). Kenya Airways is
the primary SkyTeam carrier in Africa, so I’ve captured their Africa
route network map below.

3,248.40
+39.77
+1.24%
Year To Date:    +1.40%
52-Week Range:    3,070.36 - 3,540.03    
1-Year:    -23.21%

The NSE 20 pushed on through a 3 Month High to close 10.03 points
higher at 3258.43.
The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.07 points to close at 70.80.
Market Cap ticked higher to close at 903.539b.
Equity Turnover was 153.209m.
EABL dominated Volumes and firmed 1.098%.
Limuru Tea closed at an All Time Closing High and Kakuzi at a 52 week High.
The Shilling was last trading at 82.55 which is a 12 Month High.

Kakuzi traded 500 shares all at 84.00 +5.00%. This is a 52 week High.
Kakuzi is +10.75% over 12 Months.

Kakuzi share Price data here
http://j.mp/5bxXIz

Limuru Tea traded a 100 shares at 400.00 which is an All Time Closing
High. Limuru Tea has rallied 34.43% 12 Months through today and is
more of a Real Estate Play than a Tea Play. Limuru is part of the
wider Nairobi Environs.

Limuru Tea share price data here
http://j.mp/d8dl0V

Sasini Tea firmed 1.766% to close at 11.65 on just 5,000 shares.

SAFARICOM

shares volume 4,704,600
total turnover     14,302,190
avg price     3.04 CLOSING PRICE -3.23%
high price     3.10
low price     2.95
last price     3.00

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 4th and eased 3.23% to close at 3.00. The Weighted
Average was 3.04 and that is rounded down. The Recent launch of the
Airtel 3.75G Product has turned the Buyers defensive near term but the
Move has been on negligible Volume. Buyers I think chose to step back
and see if they could shake the Tree.

Access Kenya closed unchanged at 3.70.

Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 0.25% to close at 20.00 and traded a
19.95-20.25 range and 549,600 shares worth 11.023m. There was Buy Side
Demand for just under 2m shares clustered between 19.85-20.00 at the
Finish Line, which went unserviced. The Chart is pointed me at 26.00
now that we are hurdling 20.00. KCB reports FY results this week. KCB
has rallied 32.89% since Dec 1 last Year.
COOP Bank traded 2nd at the Securities Exchange. COOP Bank eased 1.27%
to close at 11.70 and traded an 11.55-12.00 range and 1.923m shares
worth 22.54m. COOP Bank trades on a Trailing PE of 8.9626 ahead of its
FY Earnings Release. COOP Bank has retreated 43.05% 12 Months through
today.
Equity Bank traded 3rd. Equity Bank firmed 0.26% to close at 19.10 and
traded 802,600 shares worth 15.351m. At the Finish Line Equity Bank
had Buy Side Interest for twice the Total Quantum traded during the
session. This is in fact a 3 Month Closing High. Equity Bank has
retreated 31.22% 12 Months through today.
Barclays Bank firmed 0.7633% to close at 13.20 and traded 128,900 shares.
DTB ticked 3.68% lower to close at 91.50 and traded 1,200 shares.
Stanchart closed a shilling better at 165.00 and traded 4,300 shares.
CFC StanBic closed unchanged at 41.00 on 2,000 shares.

NIC Bank rallied 2.73% to close at 28.25 and traded 48,600 shares.

EABL was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange
today. EABL firmed 1.0989% to close ay 184.00. EABL traded a
182.00-187.00 range and 323,800 shares worth 59.89m. EABL released a
Set of Muscular H1 Results where PAT increased 17.461%, EPS increased
37.71% and that will prove an Aperitif to FY Earnings, which will be
sweetened further with Booking of an Extraordinary One Off Gain from
the Sale of EABL's shareholding in TBL. Tusker grew 21% H1 which
confirms the Underlying Organic Growth Curve is a Solid One. EABL is
+7.5581% in 2012 and outpacing the Benchmark Index by over 600 Basis
Points. I expect this Out Performance to gain more Traction.

EABL share price data and H1 2011 Results Analysis here
http://j.mp/57wrgL

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           182.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774976.00
Market Capitalization:        143,921,045,632
EPS:             9.3
PE:                 19.570

H1 2011 versus H1 2010 Results Swot Analysis
Revenue 27.777b versus 20.463b +35.74%
Net Finance Costs [642m] versus 50
Profit Before Income Tax 6.67b versus 6.165b
Profit After Tax 4.877b versus 4.152b +17.461%
Earnings Per Share 5.55 versus 4.03 +37.71%
Total Comprehensive Income 4.561b versus 3.990b
Long Term Borrowings 23.32b versus 3.918b
Available for Sale Investments Tanzania Breweries 2.465b - versus 6.3b
Actual Sale before Deductions - which will feed in at FY and it looks
real Material
Interim Dividend 2.50 a share
Purchase of NCI share of Kenya Breweries 20.876b

''The Impressive Performance is a direct result of sustained Focus on
our Grwoth Strategy, anchored on our Strong Brands,
innovations.....Tusker growing 21%..solid performance in premium and
mainstream Spirits...'' Seni Adetu.

Bamburi Cement was high ticked 7.69% to close at 140.00 and traded 400
shares. Bamburi Cement recently reported FY Results where FY PAT
increased 10.568% to 5.859.

Bamburi Cement FY Results share price data here
http://j.mp/5704zw

FY Results 2011 versus FY Results 2010
Turnover 35.884b versus 28.075b
Profit Before Tax 8.466b versus 7.564b
PAT 5.859 versus 5.299b +10.568%
EPS 14.44 versus 14.02 +2.995%
Interim 2.0
Final Dividend 8.00

ARM closed unchanged at 154.00 and traded 3,100 shares.

Kenya Power KPLC released H1 Results after the Closing Bell Friday
where Profit After Tax increased to 2.284183b versus 2.220604b the
Previous Time and where the EPS increased to 1.17 [versus 1.02]. KPLC
eased back 0.588% to close at 16.90.
KenGen closed unchanged at 7.50 and traded 161,900 shares.

KenolKobil firmed 1.351% to close at 11.25. KenolKobil is reporting FY
Earnings this week and has rallied 33.08% [And Investors have had a 57
cents Interim Dividend Thrown in as well] 12 months through today.

KenolKobil share price data and H1 Earnings Release
http://j.mp/2DMFVE

Swot Analysis 6 months to June 2011 versus 6 months to June 2010
Sales 83.313342b versus 60.349692b +38.0509%
Cost of Sales 76.571167b versus 56.085214b
Gross Profit 6.742175b versus 4.264479b
Administration and Operating Costs 1.784790b versus 1.340008b
PBT 3.218199b versus 1.732112b +85.79%
PAT 2.157050b versus 1.179493b +82.87%

BAT eased a Shilling after its Sharp Post Results Bounce on Friday.