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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 16th of July 2012
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

My Weekly Piece for the Star

Political Risk is now cooling Economy upbeat The Star
http://j.mp/MsJvZG

Let's take stock. No real stock taking can take place without having a
look at the political risk.

Whilst I appreciate that the political situation remains fluid and
only a bushy tailed and eternal optimist would bet on an optimal
outcome, nevertheless you have to admit that the ICC has brought a
process to bear on what had become an intractable problem. Therefore,
I would argue that the ICC has had a normative consequence and
established a new standard of behaviour. We live in an information age
and there is simply no conversation which is not being surveilled.

Ryszard Kapuscinski said the following about revolution:

It is authority that provokes revolution....this occurs when a feeling
of impunity takes root among the elite: We are allowed anything, we
can do anything. This is a delusion, but it rests on a certain
rational foundation. For a while it does indeed look as if they can do
whatever they want. Scandal after scandal and illegality after
illegality go unpunished. The people remain silent...at the same time,
they keep a detailed account of the wrongs, which at one particular
moment are to be added up. The choice of that moment is the greatest
riddle of history.

Kapucinski was referencing the Peacock Throne of Shah Reza Pahlavi of
Iran, who gave way to the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei and the Islamic
regime, whom the Americans continue to try and wrestle to the ground.

'They keep a detailed account of the wrongs.' The mobile phone and the
internet have essentially empowered the crowd and they all have a
scorecard. The wise politician needs to be very careful about the
words they utter because every utterance is now on the record and time
stamped.

Therefore, I for one, think Kenya political risk which was flashing
red is now blinking amber. Sure there will be spikes but at a basic
level, I believe political risk inflected.

The NSE20 is the 3rd best performing index in the world after Egypt
and Venezuela. The NSE20 Index has rallied 583 points and is +18.19%
so far in 2012. On Friday, the index eased 0.38% off a 12 month
closing high. Of course, there have been some spectacular returns with
the likes of Uchumi exceeding 100% and Kenya Commercial Bank exceeding
50% in 2012, for example. The stock market had become way too
pessimistic in 2011 and has been rallying from a deeply oversold
position.

The shilling has traded a tight range of 82.00-86.15 throughout 2012.
Compare that to a range of 82.00-107.00 in 2011. In fact, If you
compare the Kenya shilling to the likes of the South African rand and
the India rupee, the shilling has been rock solid. I appreciate that
ultra high interest rates sucked money into the money markets and that
we have now embarked on a round of monetary easing and that therefore
this brings new complexities.

However, in a world where developed economies keep adding lashings of
magic money to the system, I venture we can bring interest rates much
lower without impairing the shilling.

In Fact, I feel we are poised on the cusp of an aggressive easing
cycle. Fuel prices were reduced nearly 8% in one hit this weekend. The
inflation rate will be in single digits next month. Month on month
inflation was -0.8% last month (Its just under 10% in Khartoum on a
month on month basis].

We Learnt this week that "all our 46 oil blocks including the nine in
the deep sea are now contracted out'' and that Apache Corp is expected
to drill Kenya's first deep- water oil well in three months.

We are running with the bulls.

Weekly Pieces The Star 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/frbsshares.php

The Wizard of Oz - Lessons in Monetary Policy
IT'S TIME FOR THE MPC TO ACT
A Spin Through Africa
Show Me The Money
The Serena
Maputo, Boom Town
Scangroup Sets Pace in Advertising
Facebook FB
The Week That Was From Sarkozy to Puma Energy
Africa Can
Base Titanium and the Mineral Sands at Kwale
Hunting Elephants in East Africa
Kenya At The Crossroads to Greatness
Turkana Oil Find : Kenya Must Get It Right From The Start
The Road Frequently Travelled
Horn of Africa region has Huge Potential
Nairobi NSE20 14 Session Winning Streak and Behavioural Finance
Stop Borders Mentality
EABL HAs Shown Remarkable Resilience
Kenya Pops Over The Radar - The Foot Traffic Indicator
Social Media Is A Game Changer
My Extraordinary Experience At The Mara Part 1
My Extraordinary Experience At The Mara Part 2
Sudan Oil wars and the Lamu Pipeline
The ICC Ruling Is Kenya's Tipping Point
Will Nigeria Fuel Protests Turn Into A Revolution?
Why #Iran Matters A Geopolitical Black Swan The #Star
I thank His Excellency Etienne De Poncins Ambassador of France to
Kenya for the Invite to the Bastille Day Celebration.

Bastille Day #Nairobi
http://www.twitpic.com/a7jb0h

CCTV Talk Africa Iran oil sanctions CNTV
http://j.mp/LS3vov

@BMarshallCCTV @CCTVAfrica Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/a6foy8

Macro Thoughts

In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on
initial conditions, where a small change at one place in a nonlinear
system can result in large differences to a later state. The name of
the effect, coined by Edward Lorenz, is derived from the theoretical
example of a hurricane's formation being contingent on whether or not
a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks before.

Home Thoughts

I thank HE Jacques Pitteloud for the Invite to his Residence on Saturday

The Irrepressible @JulianiKenya Muthaiga Gig #Video
http://www.twitpic.com/a7r53n

@JulianiKenya is always intense and mesmerising Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/a7r53c

Salman Rushdie Ours is the most cryptic of Centuries, it's true Nature
a Dark Secret. P 206 Imaginary Homelands
https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/statuses/205583858660417536

Pablo Neruda
http://j.mp/NqxZw1

Silent and starving, I prowl through the streets.

I hunger for your sleek laugh,
your hands the color of a savage harvest,
hunger for the pale stones of your fingernails,
I want to eat your skin like a whole almond.

I want to eat the sunbeam flaring in your lovely body,
the sovereign nose of your arrogant face,
I want to eat the fleeting shade of your lashes,

and I pace around hungry, sniffing the twilight,
hunting for you, for your hot heart,
Like a puma in the barrens of Quitratue."
-- Pablo Neruda

read more


Obama spending on attack ads soars FOX
Law & Politics


"They wanted to define Romney before he could define himself, and by
every indication they're doing a very effective job of that" said Jim
Jordan, a Democratic strategist who was campaign manager for
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004.

Conclusions

Thats the Point. The Obama Campaign is shaping the Romney Message.

Barack Obama
http://j.mp/NvfoQA

Sudanese leaders in first talks since April clashes BBC
http://j.mp/LZDa3c

Omar al-Bashir sat down with Salva Kiir on the sidelines of an African
Union summit in the Ethiopian capital. No information has been
released about what the two men spoke about during their meeting in
Addis Ababa, but they shook hands publicly for the first time at the
end of it.

Conclusions

Both of them are in fact on the Ropes.

Goma UN helicopter circles overhead as peacekeepers from Uruguay patrol Guardian
http://j.mp/P7tB5Q

Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo: a UN helicopter circles
overhead as peacekeepers from Uruguay patrol in a show of force to
reassure the local population.

Conclusions

The UN is staking out a Forward Position in Eastern DRC.

Syria's many new friends are a self-interested bunch Charles Glass
http://j.mp/PXNbCX

Would it be churlish to suggest that Syria's friends want something
from Syria for themselves? George Bush was eyeing Syria when he left
the White House, and, as in so much else, the Obama administration is
taking the policy further.

On March 5, 2007 Seymour Hersh, whose American intelligence sources
are second to none, wrote in TheNew Yorker:

"To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush
administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities
in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the administration has co-operated
with Saudi Arabia's government, which is Sunni, in clandestine
operations that are intended to weaken Hizbollah, the Shiite
organisation that is backed by Iran. The US has also taken part in
clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product
of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups
that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and
sympathetic to Al Qaeda."

Syria is a house on fire, and the US and Russia have turned up with
flame-throwers.

The role of outside actors is as clear as it was when Britain used the
so-called "Arab awakening" to expel the Ottomans from Syria in 1918.
Just as those rebels discovered two years later, freedom and
independence may not suit their powerful backers.

If the friends' sanctions, arming of the opposition and dispatch of
spies and supplies fail to settle the outcome in Syria, the friends
will rely on the armed oppositions' narrative to demand that the US
launch an invasion.

"Whenever we engage in a war or move in on some country," Edmund
Wilson wrote in Patriotic Gore, referring to America's seizure of many
lands from Mexico to the Philippines, "it is always to liberate
somebody."

Washington's Alliance With al-Qaeda Playing the Sunni Card Justin Raimondo
http://j.mp/Ns9E7Z

The campaign to win "hearts and minds" has become an attempt to coopt
Sunni radicalism, neutralize Al Qaeda, and use the Sunnis as a
battering ram against Washington's real target in the region: Iran.

''Asia-Pacific region will still be showing every feature of a
transitional period, which is characterised by a certain level of
chaos"
http://j.mp/M8lAwq

Earlier in the week, PLA generals and top foreign policy advisers
urged China to do more to press its claims.

Cui Liru, president of the China Institutes of Contemporary
International Relations, a leading think tank that reports to the main
intelligence department, said Beijing had previously focused too much
on seeking common ground with its neighbours and putting disputes on
the shelf.

"In the foreseeable future, say at least in five years, the
Asia-Pacific region will still be showing every feature of a
transitional period, which is characterised by a certain level of
chaos," he said.

Conclusions

So Many Geopolitical Red Zones.

Ri Yong-ho, shown with the country's young leader, Kim Jong-un, has
been suddenly removed as head of North Korea's military
http://j.mp/SxTb3X

In surprise announcement the state-run Korean Central News Agency
(KCNA) said Ri Yong-ho, who was often seen at Kim's side after the
death of his father, Kim Jong-il, last December, had been relieved of
his duties after a short illness.

As vice-marshal and chief of general staff of the Korean people's
army, Ri was a powerful figure who helped ease the transition from the
second to third generation of the Kim dynasty in 2011.

Pyongyang
http://j.mp/tiBGHG

"It's like geopolitics," Tony Placido said. "You need to use violence
frequently enough that the threat is believable. But overuse it, and
it's bad for business."
http://j.mp/SoGokv

"Where would you put your money?" the former Cisen officer Alejandro
Hope asked me with a chuckle. "T-bills? Real estate? I would put a
large portion of my portfolio in cocaine."

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade


Euro 1.2240 0.6% above its 2 Year Low from Last week touched 1.2163 on
July 13 the weakest level since June 2010
Dollar Index 83.33
Japan Yen 79.10
Swiss Franc 0.9812
Pound 1.5571
Aussie 1.0228
India Rupee 54.965
South Korea Won 1145.20
Brazil Real 2.0376
Egypt Pound 6.0464
South Africa Rand 8.2604

The euro has declined 4 percent in the past three months, the
worst-performer among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by
Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen advanced 5.8 percent
in the same period, while the dollar climbed 3.9 percent.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will discuss the outlook for
the economy and monetary policy in testimony to the U.S. Senate
Banking Committee tomorrow.

Euro versus the Dollar 6 Month Chart INO 1.2239 Last
http://j.mp/MbPboV

Headed to 1.1760. The euro last touched $1.20 on June 10.

Dollar Index 6 Month Chart INO 83.325 Last
http://j.mp/sKbLJD

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 86.95 Last
http://j.mp/OIsANY

Prices gained 1.2 percent to 87.10 a barrel July 13, the highest since July 5.

Conclusions

I continue to sell 75.00 Puts.

Gold 6 Month Chart INO 1587.86 Last
http://j.mp/uPLioO

I expect New All Time Highs through Year End.

read more


India Rupee 6 Month Chart INO 54.96 Last
Emerging Markets

I remain bearish and look for a Place to reset Shorts probably
immediately after QE3.

Frontier Markets

read more


AU chooses Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as leader BBC
Africa


Ms Dlamini-Zuma, the former wife of South African President Jacob
Zuma, won the leadership of the AU commission in a third round of
voting.

She got 37 votes at the 54-member body, giving her the 60% majority
she needed to be elected.

The 63-year-old is currently South Africa's home affairs minister, and
has also had spells as minister of health and of foreign affairs.

Blood, Toil, Tears and Sand WSJ
http://j.mp/LX62ZO

Between 1850 and 1855, Heinrich Barth, a driven and self-absorbed
young German scholar, traveled 10,000 miles from Tripoli across the
burning Sahara and through what are now Nigeria, Niger, Mali and Chad.
His journey was an epic of survival. Two of his four European
companions perished during the expedition and a third died soon after
it ended. Barth once came so close to dying of thirst that he cut his
arm and drank his blood.

In "A Labyrinth of Kingdoms," Steve Kemper has written the first, and
long overdue, biography in English of this remarkable man. "Barth's
feats rival, if not surpass, those of the most famous names in
nineteenth-century travel," Mr. Kemper claims, and at a time when
eastern Mali, including the fabled city of Timbuktu, with its Sufi
shrines and ancient libraries, is being vandalized by the
al-Qaeda-linked group Ansar Dine, Barth's travels have a new
relevance.

Is the crisis in Mali over? Aljazeera
http://j.mp/Jifh5d

So, is the crisis in Mali over? Has the peace deal brokered by ECOWAS
simply failed? What is next for this politically-fragile country? And,
who is to blame for the crisis in Mali?

Joining presenter Kamahl Santamaria on Inside Story to discuss these
issues are guests: Alessandra Giuffrida, an anthropologist
specialising in Mali at the School of Oriental and African Studies;
Aly Khan Satchu, a political analyst and CEO of the East Africa
financial portalRich.co.ke; and Sunday Ugoh, an ECOWAS spokesperson.

Timbuktu-manuscripts-astronomy-mathematics
http://j.mp/NnOfOk

Magic of Mozambique FT
http://j.mp/Mrhuhg

But then, this isn't entirely new. The first written record of
Mozambique was in a 10th-century Arab text entitled "the meadows of
gold and mines of gems". That title more or less sums up how the
country has been seen since by successive waves of colonisers -
Arabian, Indian and Swahili traders and, later, the Portuguese. It is
a history that has left its mark, not least upon our destination, the
Ilha de Moçambique, a tiny coral island that for 400 years was
Mozambique's capital. It's now a Unesco world heritage site, and, as I
tell my mother excitedly before I go, "the new Zanzibar".

The rooms are shutterless, so we wake at dawn and walk along the beach
to see the fishermen returning with the night's catch in their dhows
and dug-out canoes. I'm just thinking that it is a scene that doesn't
seem to have changed in the past 1,000 years when one of the fishermen
looks up from mending his net, pulls out a cellphone and does a
passable imitation of Michael Douglas in Wall Street.

Back at the lodge, there's a certain Graham Greene quality to the
clientele. I chat to a lone Portuguese woman at breakfast and ask how
long she's staying. "A long time," she says. "Weeks. Maybe months."
And then after a pause, "Working." Oh, I say, and what kind of work do
you do? "I'm taking ... soil samples," she says and it's only later
that one of the managers translates this for me: "She's looking for
diamonds."

The Fort of São Sebastião at the tip of Ilha de Moçambique

The Sea Front #Maputo #Mozambique #Africa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9scznt

And this Photograph was surely taken at the Exact same Place

Etnografia Mozambique #Africa
http://www.twitpic.com/9scj0s

Sun Rise from the Bed Room @ The Polana @Serenahotels Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9sa9j5

Maputo Boom Town The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/040NSX0406.pdf

GREETINGS from the Serena Polana, Maputo. I can confirm that Maputo is
the land of wonderful and flavoursome tiger prawns. The Architecture
is also deliciously retro. By the way, the Polana was built in 1922
and the flavour is fabulously Riviera and very swanky. It is less than
4 hours by plane from Nairobi and surely set to be the most of in
things and places to visit.

Of course, Mozambique has popped large onto the global radar because
of gas reserves that have been discovered offshore and in the deep
sea. I have said before, that I believe the eastern seaboard of Africa
is clearly the last great energy prize in the c21st and I believe this
lake of hydrocarbons stretches from Mozambique up through Tanzania,
Kenya and Somalia. We remain in the early stage of this discovery
process but Mozambique is further along the curve.

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg 30.28713% 2012
http://j.mp/u7GYXZ

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 8.2612 Last
http://j.mp/mY9EV7

read more


Kenya cuts retail fuel prices after crude fell Reuters
Kenyan Economy

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) cut the maximum price of a
litre of super petrol in the capital by almost 8 percent to 108.39
shillings ($1.29), while reducing that of a litre of diesel by the
same margin to 97.42 shillings.

Conclusions

Fuel prices were reduced nearly 8% in one hit this weekend. The
inflation rate will be in single digits next month. Month on month
inflation was -0.8% last month

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 84.25 Last
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Euro versus Kenya Shilling 1 Year Chart INO 103.11 Last
http://j.mp/LYYbip

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg Year To Date +18.19% 2012
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The NSE20 firmed 6.46 points to close at 3795.10.
The NSE20 has rallied 590 Points and 18.408% in 2012.
The NSE20 closed at a 12 Month High of 3802.96 on Thursday July 12th.
The Nairobi All Share closed 0.13 Points higher at 81.84.
Market Cap was 1.071606 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 201.627m.
The Market remains well supported but there is more Rotation.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


SAFARICOM


shares volume   9,176,600
total turnover  33,038,996
avg price       3.60 closing Price 3.60 +1.41%
high price      3.70
low price       3.55
last price      3.65

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 2nd at The Exchange. Safaricom firmed 1.41% to close
at 3.60 and was trading 12 Month Highs of 3.65 +2.82% at the Closing
Bell. Safaricom printed an Intra Day of 3.70 +4.23%. Safaricom traded
9.176m shares worth 33.308m. Safaricom is +22.033% in 2012 and 1.36%
beneath 3.65 a 12 Month Closing High from July 3rd.

Safaricom share Price Data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D

ScanGroup rallied 3.921% to close at 53.00 and traded 54,700 shares.
ScanGroup is +27.71% in 2012 and just 2.75% beneath an 18 Month
Closing high of 54.50 which was struck on April 30th, May 3rd, May
30th, June 19th and June 27th This Year.

Kenya Airways firmed 0.352% to close at 14.25 and traded 167,500
shares. Kenya Airways has rallied 16.5% since closing at a 6+ Year Low
on 25th June.

Kenya Airways share Price Data
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=OA%3D%3D

Sameer eased 2.439% to close at 4.00 and traded 230,700 shares. Sameer
is -9.09% in 2012.

Express Kenya which issued a Profits Warning last week traded 44,800
shares at 4.00 and unchanged.

ExPress Kenya Profits Warning here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NDY%3D

Uchumi closed 0.321% lower at 15.50 and traded 57,200 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank was the most active share at the Exchange. KCB
closed unchanged at 23.25 and traded a 23.00-23.75 range and 1.698m
shares worth 39.499m. KCB is +48.96% in 2012. KCB trades on a Trailing
PE Ratio of 6.25 and a Price to Book of 1.5558. KCB is well entrenched
across the EAC and the EAC is the 2nd Fastest Growing Region in the
World. The Half Year Earnings are slated for Release in the last week
of July.

Kenya Commercial Bank share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D

Barclays Bank firmed 0.366% to close at 13.70 and traded 398,500
shares. Barclays Bank is +5.38% over the last 4 weeks.
Equity Bank traded 3rd. Equity Bank closed unchanged at 21.50 and
traded 1.372m shares worth 29.52m.
COOP Bank traded 5th. COOP Bank closed unchanged at 11.55 and traded
1.620m shares worth 18.739m.

Centum eased 0.784% to close at 12.65 and traded 55,300 shares. Centum
is -6.29% in 2012.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL traded 4th. EABL eased 0.44% to close at 222.00 and traded a
216.00-223.00 range and 110,400 shares worth 24.604m. EABL is +30.523%
on a Total Return Basis. EABL has corrected 7.5% lower since July 6th,
when it closed at 240.00 an All Time Closing High.

EABL share Price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzQ%3D

Bamburi Cement closed unchanged at 180.00 and traded 52,100 shares
worth 9.378m. This is in fact an 18 Month High. Bamburi Cement has
rallied 14.649% over the last Month and trades on a Trailing PE of
12.4654.
Athi River Mining firmed 1.01% to close at 199.00 and traded 20,300
shares. ARM is +25.949% in 2012 and sits 2.92% below 205.00 a Record
Closing High from July 6th this Year. ARM trades on a Trailing PE of
17.1915.
Portland eased 1.7233% to close at 57.00 on low volume of 600 shares.

BOC Kenya was high ticked 8.70% to close at 125.00 and traded a 100 shares.

Mumias Sugar closed unchanged at 6.70 and traded a 6.60-6.90 range and
1.333m shares worth 8.988m. Mumias Sugar is +26.415% in 2012 and
trades on a Trailing PE of 5.3175.

Kenya Power KPLC eased 0.33% to close at 15.20 and traded 439,500
shares. KPLC is -2.564% in 2012.
KenGen closed unchanged at 8.45 and traded 407,900 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2012
 
 
 
 
 
COMMENTS

 
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  aly khan says:
july 16th, 2012 at 05:56 pm
Rwanda as an Investment Destination - Part 1 Invest in Africa @CNBCAfrica
http://j.mp/SAjMgS

On Invest Africa we travel to the landlocked country of Rwanda and look at the opportunities and the challenges that continue to plague this East African nation as it tries to rebuild its image with the global economy.

Joining ABN’s Bronwyn Nielsen in-studio to take a closer look at Rwanda as an investment destination is Paul Runge, Managing Director at Africa Project Access; Safiyya Patel, Partner for M&A Practice at Webber Wentzel and joining us from our bureau in Nairobi is Aly-Khan Satchu, CEO of Rich Management.

#Rwanda as an Investment Destination - Part 2 Invest in #Africa @CNBCAfrica
http://j.mp/Mrq8wr
 
 
  aly khan says:
july 16th, 2012 at 06:06 pm
16 July - #Kenya Markets with Aly-Khan Satchu CNBC Africa VIDEO
http://j.mp/MzQ9Ic

Thanks @mashudum for todays Interview on @CNBCAfrica Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/a872