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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 13th of August 2012
 
Morning
Africa

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Hannah gives Flowers to FM @LMushikiwabo #Rwanda #Mindspeak Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/acqoew

#Mindspeak with Rwanda FM @LMushikiwabo RICH TV
http://www.RICH.CO.KE/rctools/richtv.php


Macro Thoughts



Home Thoughts

Medal of Honor @RudishaDavid New Yorker
http://j.mp/OU8rWf

The most Olympic moment of these Olympics, at least according to this
track-and-field fan, was the last straightaway in the men’s
eight-hundred-metre run. There was David Rudisha, a tall, graceful
Kenyan, in the lead. He had started fast, accelerated, and accelerated
again. But then he started to tire. His long, loping stride no longer
seemed perfect; his face, arms, and back began to show fatigue. A
machine was revealing signs of humanity. Behind him, a fearless
eighteen-year-old from Botswana, Nigel Amos, appeared to be gaining.
Suddenly, two Americans, Duane Solomon and Nick Symmonds, darted onto
the screen. Americans never medal in this race. Could they? Go! Go!
Go!

Rudisha didn’t fade much; he won, set a world record, and stretched
his long arms out toward the sky. Meanwhile, Amos ran faster than any
runner-up in history. Solomon and Symmonds didn’t medal, but they were
faster than any previous fourth- and fifth-place finishers. Everyone
ran faster than he had ever run before.

I think it was about Six Years ago, when we went to Turkey. We spent a
Few Days in Istanbul. And One Day we took ourselves off to the Hammam.
And This Fellow looked at me and enquired which part of my Person he
might work on. And Then he pointed at my Stomach and for one Hour This
Man started playing with my Innards in a way I had never thought
possible.

Çemberlitaş Hamamı located on Çemberlitaş Square on Divanyolu Street,
in Istanbul, Turkey. It was constructed 1584
http://j.mp/P9KhcF

To do this, I do not whether He was just an Outlier or All the
Masseuses were similarly intuitive. The Point is That Fellow took 4
Inches off my Waist.

And then for the last 6 Months, I felt my Waist expanding. The Girls
would see in a T-Shirt and say

'OMG Dad! What's that?'

And I would tell them

'I am a Thin Man in a Fat Body.'

It had become intolerable and surreal even Kafkaesque.

And Then Nishet told me,

'I have spoken to the Chemist in Lavington Green.'

And Voila.

I am a Thinner Man again.

read more


Robert Fisk: In the end, all Israel and her Western allies want to do is to break Iran – via Syria Independent
Law & Politics


In just seven minutes, Michel Samaha got my book unbanned after seven
years on Lebanon's blacklist. Even Rafiq Hariri, when he was Prime
Minister couldn't get Pity The Nation into Beirut's book shops. "There
is a sentence about a Syrian tank guarding a hashish field in the
Bekaa Valley," he told me. "This is not the time for me to take this
up."

In the end, it's all about Iran, the target of Qatar's and Saudi
Arabia's and America's and Israel's suspicion and hatred. Break Iran –
via Syria.

Conclusions

That is the Point.

Grand Ayatollah[2] Sayyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei

Nairobi, Kenya - June 18, 2012 CCTV "I think they finally woke up. I
don't know when the penny dropped'' Aly-Khan Satchu
http://j.mp/MD6oGN

CCTV: Africa's true image or China's strategic vehicle? Aude Genet (AFP)
http://j.mp/NkhUdA

NAIROBI — The countdown starts and the Kenyan news reader runs through
the top headlines for the evening bulletin. In a few minutes he will
go on air in Nairobi, broadcasting live for China state television.
It's 8:00 pm in the Kenyan capital and 1:00 am in Beijing, when China
Central Television (CCTV) hands over to its Nairobi team for "Africa
Live", an hour-long flagship programme billed as a "new voice" for
African news and Sino-African relations.

On a recent night, the spotlight was on Rwanda's economic expansion
and the Somali athletes taking part in the Olympics in London.

"We want to keep a balance," Pang Xinhua, CCTV's managing editor who
runs a network of correspondents in a dozen African countries, told
AFP. "We are not only talking about war, diseases or poverty, we also
focus on economic development."

"Africa Live" is put together by a team of 60 or so people in Nairobi
-- about 50 of them Kenyans. It holds a prime time slot in east Africa
but is also televised worldwide.
"We opened this bureau in order to be able to tell the real Africa
story, the real story of China and the real story of Sino-African
relations," CCTV Africa chief Song Jianing said, echoing remarks by
China's ambassador to Kenya when the switchover started in January.

Nairobi was CCTV's first regional bureau to produce and broadcast its
own hour-long news programme. Its cousin CCTV America soon followed
suit.

For its inauguration, CCTV Africa managed to get Kenyan Vice President
Kalonzo Musyoka to make a speech.

He urged the channel to "present a new image of the continent" to
break with the trend in which Africa is often shown in the
international media as "the continent of endless calamities".

Chris Alden of the London School of Economics said CCTV Africa is
"part of a wider strategy to combat what can be seen as a negative
relationship" between China and Africa.

"Chinese officials start from a diagnosis that too many Africans rely
on Western-based news services," said Alden, who is certain CCTV "will
have an impact."

"Where there is deep unhappiness among local African businesses
experiencing displacement due to competition from Chinese companies,
it won't eliminate that, but it could lessen a negative effect," he
said.

"It's also ... for Chinese people to get a better understanding of
Africa," he added, saying events like last year's Libyan conflict in
which 30,000 Chinese had to be evacuated by Beijing "have an impact on
Chinese investments in Africa."

For David Bandurski of the China Media Project at Hong Kong
University, CCTV Africa is part of China's bid to beef up its "soft
power" strategy, a notion that first emerged with President Hu Jintao
in 2007 and aims to win influence abroad by appeal and exchanges
rather than threats or force. Other pundits point to the media's role
in this.

"China has sent its state media on a global mission to advance its
influence in the world," said Yu-Shan Wu from the South African
Institute of International Affairs, in a recent paper noting that
Beijing's efforts "previously focused on trade, investment and
diplomatic activities."

CCTV Africa, meanwhile, insists that it wants to present the world
through an African prism.

"The thing I like is that we are telling the story from our
perspective," said Beatrice Marshall, a star news reader at the Kenyan
station KTN who was wooed over to CCTV Africa.

"When you go to rural Kenya now, you see that everyone can watch TV,
listen to radio, people are more educated and we want to talk about
that," she told AFP.

On the delicate issue of whether Beijing censors content, Douglas
Okwatch, editor on the Saturday "Talk Africa" programme presented by
Marshall, said staff have a free hand on their stories "as long as
they are objective, balanced and not dragging in unnecessary
controversies."

"One thing they (CCTV) are doing right," analyst Wu told AFP, "is to
provide a platform for Africans to speak their point of view.

"On other channels, I don't find such platforms to speak on Africa by
Africans," she said, but questioned how CCTV Africa will fare if it
emphasises only the upside of Sino-African relations.

"Credibility is not covering only the positive stories," said Wu.

Hong Kong University's Bandurski, meanwhile, said CCTV news products
"must be subjected to political controls, even if these controls are
not necessarily as rigid as those imposed on domestic Chinese media."

But he agreed it will be "very difficult to build a credible
international media when you do not have sufficient leeway to produce
truly professional coverage."

CCTV Africa chief Song, whom the staff all call "Madame Song", insists
that Beijing has not rejected any content so far, and hopes soon to
add a second hour of programming out of Nairobi.

And at a time when many Western media houses are struggling to
survive, the Chinese TV giant has the means to finance its expansion
projects.

CCTV aims to rank among "the biggest media groups in the world", said Song.

Conclusions

Soft Power referencing Qatar but applies to CCTV 15th August 2011
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/024NSX1508.pdf

Anyway that’s the backgrounder. What I want to look at is Aljazeera
and how it is a preeminent example of soft power in this 21st century
of ours.        Soft power is the ability to obtain what one wants through
co-option and attraction. It can be contrasted with ‘hard power’, that
is the use of coercion and payment. Soft power can be wielded not just
by states, but by all actors in interna- tional politics, such as NGOs
or international institutions. The idea of attraction as a form of
power dates back to ancient Chinese philosophers such as Laozi in the
7th century BC. “Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will
wear away rock, which is rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever
is fluid, soft, and yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard.
This is another paradox: what is soft is strong.” Lao Tzu. This idea
was further developed by Joseph Nye of Harvard University in his 2004
book, Soft Power: The means to success in world politics and I happen
to believe that Emir of Qatar is Nye and Lao Tzu’s very best student.

Thanks @BMarshallCCTV for todays 3 Way with #Tehran and #Washington 32
Days Ago Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/a6fp89

Trading #Information and Trading Markets look very similar #Aljazeera
367 Days Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/64p042

Communications in an Information Century Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/8n5m2u

read more


SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE GSPG10YR:IND Bloomberg Live Quote
International Trade


6.907%

Spain’s 10-year yield climbed to a euro-era record of 7.75 percent on July 25.

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
http://j.mp/97tI8l

Euro 1.2280 Euro declined 0.8 percent in the week ended Aug. 10, the
most since July 6.
Dollar Index 82.63
Japan Yen 78.31
Swiss Franc 0.9780
Pound 1.5660
Aussie 1.0546
India Rupee 55.39
South Korea Won 1131.44
Brazil Real 2.0160
Egypt Pound 6.0776
South Africa Rand 8.0904

The pace of economic growth in Japan cooled to an annualized 1.4
percent in the second quarter from a revised 5.5 percent in the first
three months of the year, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today.

The dollar has risen 7.1 percent in the past year, according to
Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the second- best performance
among the 10 currencies tracked by the gauge. The yen rose 2.9 percent
and the euro lost 8.9 percent.

Euro versus Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.2283 Last
http://j.mp/PdQeGX

My Objective for Eternity has been 1.1760 but I think its headed a
great deal lower than that, eventually.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 82.541 Last
http://bit.ly/cfmNIL

Will they or won't They QE3?

Australia Dollar versus Dollar 6 Month Chart INO 1.05510 Last
http://j.mp/JqL0D0

Rolling correlations over 60 days between the Aussie-U.S. dollar pair
and the MSCI World Index of stocks was 0.77, down from a record 0.96
on Jan. 18. The New Zealand-U.S. dollar link to global stocks has
fallen to 0.72 from a Jan. 9 record of 0.91. A value of 1 indicates
the assets move in unison.The Australian and New Zealand dollars are
this year’s best-performing currencies among developed economies, even
as raw material prices have stagnated. The Aussie is up 3.5 percent
this year and the kiwi has risen 4.6 percent among the 10
developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted
Indexes.

Conclusions

Strong Internal Dynamics counterbalanced by a Weakening [sharply now] China.

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities



Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 93.83 Last
http://j.mp/TxedjP

Crude for September delivery rose as much as 87 cents to $93.74 a
barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It
was at $93.20 at 2:57 p.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 49 cents
to $92.87 on Aug. 10. Prices are 5.9 percent lower since the start of
the year. Oil rose in New York, adding to two weeks of gains.

Strait of Hormuz Bloomberg
http://j.mp/Qtw9I9

The U.S. Navy yesterday said one of its guided-missile destroyers
collided with an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, a transit route
for about a fifth of global crude shipments. The USS Porter hit the
Panamanian-flagged M/V Otowasan at about 1 a.m. local time, said
Bahrain-based U.S. 5th Fleet spokesman Lieutenant Greg Raelson. The
incident was not combat-related and damage to the ship was being
evaluated, he said.

“It does raise the main issue in this area,” Dominick Chirichella, a
senior partner at the Energy Management Institute in New York, said in
a note to clients. “A large number of military vessels are patrolling
the area which as we have seen increases the possibility of accidents
and thus the potential to slow the flow of traffic through this area.”

U.S. ships are patrolling the Strait as Iran has threatened to block
the waterway in retaliation for sanction’s targeting its nuclear
program. Israeli leaders are leaning toward a strike on the country
before U.S. elections in November despite opposition to such a move by
the security establishment, the Haaretz daily reported Aug. 10.

Iraq’s daily crude production climbed to 3.2 million barrels and will
reach 3.4 million barrels by year’s end as planned, according to
Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs Hussain al-Shahristani. That
would be the fastest rate in more than 20 years. The country’s output
has surpassed that of Iran and Kuwait, al-Shahristani said yesterday
in Baghdad.

Conclusions

There is so much Hard Power in the Persian Gulf, its essentially a Tinder Box.

Gold 1 Month Chart INO 1623.18 Last
http://j.mp/p8TSCu

Gold rose 3.1 percent to $1,615.10 an ounce on the Comex in New York
this year, extending 11 consecutive annual gains. Photographer: Sergio
Dionisio/Bloomberg

Conclusions

I think it rallies through Year End from here.

The Mercedes-Benz 540 K Special Roadster is one of only 30 built
http://j.mp/PgR9Da

A 1930s Mercedes (DAI) may sell for more than $16 million in
California this month.

read more



Mursi has ordered Tantawi into retirement, state media reported today Bloomberg
Africa


Conclusions

He has moved with some Despatch.

Qatar pledges $2bn for Egypt's central bank AlJazeera
http://j.mp/QTYoUF

Qatar is to deposit $2bn at the Egyptian Central Bank in an effort to
help support an economy battered by a year and a half of political
turmoil, an Egyptian presidency statement has said. The announcement
came after meeting in Cairo on Saturday between President Mohamed
Morsi and Qatar's emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani.

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg +37.244% 2012
http://j.mp/u7GYXZ

4,971.24
+10.26
+0.21%

Egypt Pound 1 Year Chart INO 6.0724 Last
http://j.mp/uJfdVt

Qatar are depositing $2b which might stabilise and bounce the Pound a Little.

Ugandan military helicopters reported missing over Kenya Reuters Alertnet
http://j.mp/RFFGQp

KAMPALA, Aug 12 (Reuters) - A number of Ugandan military helicopters
went missing in Kenyan airspace on Sunday on their way to Somalia to
reinforce African Union peacekeeping forces battling al-Shabaab
rebels, the Ugandan military said.

The military told Reuters a team of helicopters had left a base in the
Ugandan city of Entebbe but only one had landed in the Kenyan town of
Wajir, where they were scheduled to refuel before flying on to
Somalia.

UPDF Helicopter New Vision
http://j.mp/PcQG6J

Drought in Wajir
http://j.mp/OTV1tn

The Fort at Wajir 1941
http://j.mp/NsP8pj

Dollar versus Rand 1 Year Chart INO 8.1058 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=&a=&w=&v=d12

The Chart Pattern is in fact signalling a Sharp Rand Rally. However,
we are at the Top of the Range for the Rand.

Heavy snow fall in Nottingham Road, South Africa Photo: EPA
http://j.mp/RqgqNI

read more


What did @HRClinton say The Star
Kenyan Economy


It is crystal clear that Madam Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has
specifically ‘requested’ that Neither Mr. Kenyatta nor Mr. Ruto should
be on the ballot box in March.

“The US Secretary of State has told the government that Mr Kenyatta
and I are not supposed to run. She has also hinted that America will
impose sanctions on us if we participate in the polls and win. This is
dictatorship,” said Mr. Ruto.

“It is not for foreigners nor for the courts to decide who should vie
for the presidency, it is up to the over 40 million Kenyans,” said Mr.
Kenyatta.
The questions that an investor [both Local and International] need to ask;

    1.  Will either be on the ballot?
    2.  Do either have a chance of winning?
    3.  What will be the consequences and the blowback?
    4.  Is the national interest something higher than the candidacy of either?

The question of sovereignty is actually a red herring. If you are
popping a lot of qualudes then maybe, you believe we are entirely
sovereign. The world is all about the power equation and I am afraid
we are a tiny little tadpole swimming with the sharks. The
consequences of going toe to toe with the US, is to be seen in the end
of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. And that end flashed around the world on
Twitter, YouTube and the mobile phone. Today, the US has pointed an
enormous amount of hard power at its other nemesis Ayatollah Khamenei.
Iran is cut off from SWIFT, they can only trade by barter. Iran has
over $100b in reserves. We have between 1%-2% of that.

The US does not countenance peer competitors. Any student of
Geopolitics can tell you that.

Are we even a peer competitor? If you look back over the last century
of American power, you will notice that its been all about access to
hydrocarbons. I have mentioned for a while that I believe the last
energy prize in this c21st of ours, is right here on the Eastern
seaboard of Africa. The resource runs from Maputo through Mogadishu
and all points in between.

Apache Corp announced Friday that they are going to start to drilling
off shore; “Spudding is imminent,” Barry Rushworth, CEO of
Pancontinental Oil and Gas, one of Apache’s partners with a stake in
the block, said in an email to Reuters.

The United States is not going to walk away and China might have
bucketloads of cash but they do not have the hard power to protect our
backs. In fact, the US has begun to encircle China.

The consequences of being sanctioned by the United States are simply
unconcionable. The economy will crater.

A Photo Journey The Eastern SeaBoard Africa

The Beach Mogadishu @loughrichard Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9u0hal

Pemba #Mozambique from the Air #Africa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9t4u1g

The Sea Front #Maputo #Mozambique #Africa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9scznt

The Ferry Gig #Likoni #Mombasa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/975vmv

The Indian Ocean Nyali Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/96bpm7

The Beach Lantana Galu Kinondo Kenya Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/8amanq

We met Dolphins on the Way to Wasini Island #Kenya #Video
http://www.twitpic.com/823orz

Bottlenose Dolphins #Shimoni #Kenya Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/7zms0a

Fort #Jesus #Mombasa  A view out to Sea Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/3l3wz7

The Sea Front Lamu Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/2ren6q

24-OCT-2011 Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message?
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX2410.pdf

The raw feed of the capture and then death of the Liby- an dictator
Muammar Gadd- afi and his son Mo’tassim Gaddafi raise plenty of
questions. The bodies are currently lying side by side, bloodied and
half-naked on a filthy mattress in a meat locker, in Misrata.

John Donne wrote: “... Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell
tolls, It tolls for thee...”

I am left thinking, this dead Gaddafi business is one powerful
message. And today Marshall McLuhan’s prediction in The Gutenberg
Galaxy (1962) that ‘The new electronic interdependence recreates the
world in the image of a global village’ has come to pass. The image of
a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have
flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter.

Who is in charge of the messaging? Through the fog of real time and
raw footage, I note a very powerful message. The essence of that
message being;

‘Don’t Fxxk with us! Be- cause you will end up dead and a trophy
souvenir in a fridge.’

That same person is probably repeating Muam- mar’s comment, “I tell
the coward crusaders: I live in a place where you can’t get me. I live
in the hearts of millions.”

And asking ‘Really? Are You? Or are you now very dead and in a meat locker?’

16-JUL-2012 POLITICAL RISK IS NOW COOLING  DOWN, ECONOMY UPBEAT KENYA The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX1607.pdf

04-JUN-2012 Maputo, Boom Town The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/040NSX0406.pdf

I have said before, that I believe the eastern seaboard of Africa is
clearly the last great energy prize in the c21st and I believe this
lake of hydrocarbons stretches from Mozambique up through Tanzania,
Kenya and Somalia. We remain in the early stage of this discovery
process but Mozambique is further along the curve.

"Spudding is imminent," Barry Rushworth, CEO of Pancontinental Oil and
Gas Reuters
http://j.mp/N5PQ9f

Kenya Bond Yields Hit Low on Rate Cut Bets as Inflation Slows Bloomberg
http://j.mp/Sdt93W

Kenyan bonds are rallying, pushing down yields to a record, on
speculation that central bank Governor Njuguna Ndung’u will follow the
first interest rate cut in 18 months with further reductions as
inflation slows.

Yields on Kenya’s 12.705 percent shilling notes due June 2022 have
dropped 157 basis points, or 1.57 percentage points, to 12.63 percent,
their lowest since they were sold in June, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg. Yields on 11.855 percent securities due May 2017 are
down as much as 38 basis points this month to 12.44 percent, the
lowest since May 28.

Inflation in the $34 billion economy, East Africa’s largest, slowed
for an eighth month in July to 7.7 percent, the Kenya National Bureau
of Statistics said on July 31. Ndung’u reduced the benchmark lending
rate by 1.5 percentage points to 16.5 percent on July 5 to help boost
the economy, which grew 3.5 percent in the first quarter, the slowest
pace in two years. The Central Bank of Kenya’s next monetary policy
meeting is scheduled for Sept. 5.

While Kenyan yields are falling, they are high relative to South
Africa, where rates on the government’s 6.75 percent securities due
March 2021 have averaged 7.6 percent this year, reaching a record low
of 6.48 percent on July 20. South Africa’s $408 billion economy is
sub-Saharan Africa’s largest.

Kenya’s inflation rate surged to a record 19.7 percent in November
after a drought caused food prices to soar. The central boosted its
main lending rate by 12 percentage points last year to curb inflation
and bolster the currency after it slumped to a record low of 106.75
per dollar on Oct. 11. The shilling has strengthened 21 percent since
its worst level to trade at 84.10 as of 4:53 p.m. on Aug. 10. The
country’s interbank lending rate has declined 17 percentage points
this year to 10 percent on Aug. 10.

Conclusions

09-JUL-2012 The Wizard of Oz - Lessons in Monetary Policy The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX0907.pdf

If the markets were really efficient, a tsunami of liquidity would be
flooding into African sovereign paper. Maybe it will. Across the
African continent, You will note that we are conducting an orthodox
monetary policy. Here in Kenya, I think the easing cycle will total
about 6% [of which we have received 25%] through year end. I think
this easier policy will see the Nairobi Se- curities Exchange NSE 20
Index [which is the world’s 3rd best performer in 2012] rally another
400 points. I think the shilling will confound everyone by behaving
well and staying in an 83-88 range versus the dollar.

02-JUL-2012 IT’S TIME FOR THE MPC TO ACT The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX0207.pdf

I am sure everyone has now experienced the slowdown and on Friday, Q1
2012 GDP was released and it was 3.5 per cent versus 5.1 per cent in
Q1 2011 and this quarter was the slowest 1st quarter since Q1 2008 and
I do not need to remind how slow that was. If the economy loses
traction at this Pace, we are in danger of posting a 0 per cent full
year GDP expansion.

Therefore, I urge the Monetary Policy Committee which meets on
Thursday this week (and I commend them for a job well done) to carpe
the diem before the slowdown starts to run away from them.

EA ‘bond market is a free lunch’ EA ‘bond market is a free lunch’
Tuesday, February 7 2012
http://j.mp/MhdIv3

Aly Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based independent economist, said the
market was expecting longer-term bonds to be sold as governments seek
to raise more funds after demand at many Treasury bill sales fell
short at the end of last year.

"Inflation rates have crossed their cycle highs across the region and
long-term bonds in Uganda and Kenya are an outrageous buy," Satchu
said. "The fixed income market is a free lunch."

"The recent tempering of the inflation rate coupled with a Bundesbank
ahead-of-the-curve monetary policy tells me that we are in fact done
here in Uganda and that extending duration in the Uganda bond market
is a no-brainer," he said.

Duration is a measure of how long it takes for the cash flow from the
security to be received. The longer the duration, the more the bond
price will rise for an equivalent yield fall.

CFC StanBic Holdings reports H1 EPS +57.092% 2012 here share Price +9.375% 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTU%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           43.75
Total Shares Issued:          273680000.00
Market Capitalization:        11,973,500,000
EPS:             6
PE:                 7.292

H1 2012 versus H1 2011 Analysis here
Total Income 6.643522b versus 4.768960b +39.3075%
Credit Impairment Charges [764.813m] versus [240.386m]
Staff Costs [1.758120b] versus [1.433047b]
Profit Before Taxation 1.781146b versus 1.304750b +36.5124%
Profit After Tax 1.213688b versus 0.902233b
Earnings Per Share 4.43 versus 2.82 +57.092%
Gains on Fair Valuation of Available for Sale 1.412884b versus [1.368380b]

Conclusions

Strong Results. Forward PE is sub 5.00.

Analysis FY 2011 versus FY 2010
Total Assets 150.171015b versus 140.080202b
Profit Before Tax PBT 2.798901b versus 2.005967b +39.52%
Earnings Per Share 6.00 versus 5.1 +17.647%
Loss Gains on Fair Value of Available for Sale Securities -2.281412b
versus +2.050231b
Total Comprehensive Income was 0.242004b versus +3.692066b
No Dividend Payment

Conclusions

I am not sure exactly What the Portfolio looks like but The Stock
Market is on the Rebound and hence I am sure They will taking back the
Entire Impairment, The Underlying Business has shown good Organic
Growth. On a PE of 7.54 x 2011 FY Earnings, I think CFC Stanbic looks
very squarely priced. They have invested in their Bench and that will
surely pay off.

Standard Group H1 2012 Earnings Release -1.011% in 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTE%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           22.50
Total Shares Issued:          71,650,000
Market Capitalization:        0
EPS:             2.95
PE:                 7.627

Swot Analysis 6 Months through June 2012 versus 6 Months through June 2011
Turnover 1.724689b versus 1.586869b +8.68%
Total Operating Costs [1.595360b] versus [1.353059b]
Finance Costs [85.634m] versus [48.636m]
Profit Before Tax 150.7m versus 274.524m -45.104%
Earnings Per Share 2.03 versus 3.71 -45.283%

Conclusions

Weak Results especially when set aside Nation Media.

Swot Analysis FY to Dec 2011 versus Dec 2010
Total Revenue 3.174907b versus 3.105436b
Operating Profit 1.899205b versus 2.130674b
PAT 219.298m versus 249.239m
EPS 2.95 versus 3.39
No Dividend
1 for 10 Bonus

SG Group Commentary

Buying a Minority Stake in Baraza Limited to strengthen The BroadCast
Business. Changed the Entertainment Content Mix and this cost 109m.

Conclusions

Soft. I would at least like to have seen stronger Revenue Growth.

Compare with Nation Media H1 Earnings here

Nation Media reports H1 PAT +25.253% 2012 Earnings here +37.68% Total
Return Basis 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTA%3D

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 84.09 Last
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg Year to Date +27.4163% 2012
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NSEASI:IND

All The Constituents at the Nairobi Securities Exchange can be tracked here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The NSE20 fell 38.78 points to close at 3792.22.
The NSE20 Index is +587 points and +18.3151% in 2012.
The NSE20 Index has corrected 86 points and 2.217% since closing at a
12 Month Closing High on July 25th.
The Nairobi All Share closed 0.73 points lower at 83.13.
It was a Lackadaisical Session with 133.583m [45.81% was traded in
Equity Bank] versus 485.117m on Friday.
CFC StanBic and Standard reported H1 Earnings.
CFC StanBic reported H1 Earnings Per Share increased 57.092%
Standard reported that  H1 Earnings Per Share reduced 45.283%



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Eaagads rallied 3.921% to close at 53.00 and traded 1,700 shares.
Eaagads has rallied 63.076% since the 27th of July.

Eaagads share Price data here +63.076% since 27th July
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NDU%3D



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom

shares volume 1,025,600
total turnover  3,853,770
closing PRICE   3.75  -1.3151%
high price      3.90
low price       3.70
last price      3.75

Conclusions

Safaricom eased 1.3151% to close at 3.75 on Low Volume 1.025m shares.
This is the now the Bottom of the Trading Range or within 5 cents of
it.

Standard Group released H1 Earnings after the Closing Bell Friday
where Turnover increased 8.68% to 1.724689b, Profit Before Tax
decreased 45.104% to 150.7m and H1 Earnings Per Share reduced 45.283%.
Standard Group traded 500 shares at 22.50 and unchanged. Standard
Group is -1.011% in 2012 and its results should be set against Nation
Media.

Nation Media reported H1 Earnings where H1 PBT increased 23.363%.
Nation Media firmed 0.56% to close at 180.00 and was trading session
Highs of 181.00 +1.12% at the Closing Bell. Nation Media is +38.888%
on a Total Return Basis in 2012 [versus Standard which is -1.0111%].

Nation Media reports H1 Earnings
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTA%3D

Turnover 5.8441b versus 5.148b +13.5217%
Profit Before Tax 1.376b versus 1.1154b +23.363%
Profit After Tax 915.1m versus 730.6m +25.253%
Earnings Per Share 5.82 versus 4.65 +25.161%
Interim Dividend 2.50 versus 1.50 last time +66.66%

ScanGroup firmed 0.8695% to close at 58.00 and this is a Fresh 21
Month Closing High. ScanGroup is +39.759% in 2012. ScanGroup traded
4,400 shares.

ScanGroup share Price data and H1 Earnings here +39.759% 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTE%3D

Profit Before Tax 578.417m versus 520.951m +11.030979%
Profit After Tax 406.647m versus 374.546m +8.5706%
Minority Interest 82.226m versus 69.583m +18.169%
Earnings Per Share 1.13 versus 1.07 +5.6074% [versus 2.55 FY which
confirms a typical H2 Skew]



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank traded 2nd at the Exchange. KCB firmed 1.02% to
close at 24.75 and was trading at 25.00 +2.04% for most of the
Session. This is a Fresh 2012 Closing High. KCB traded 727,400 shares
worth 18.17m. There was Buy Side Demand 5x the Amount traded during
the Session. KCB is +57.8635% on a Total Return Basis in 2012.  KCB
accelerated H1 PAT +49.98% and trades on a Trailing PE of 6.6532.

Kenya Commercial Bank H1 Earnings share data here +57.8635% 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D

CFC StanBic reported H1 2012 Earnings before the Opening Bell where H1
Profit Before Taxation increased +36.5124% to 1.781146b, Earnings Per
Share increased 57.092%. The Bank also declared Gains on Fair
Valuation of Available for Sale Financial Assets of 1.412884b versus a
mark down of 1.368380b last time around. CFC StanBic closed unchanged
at 43.75. CFC StanBic is +9.375% in 2012 and trades on a Trailing PE
of 7.292 and the Implied Forward PE looks attractive post the H1
Earnings Release.

Equity Bank was the most actively traded share in what was a slow
Monday Session. Equity Bank firmed 1.18% to close at 21.50 and traded
2.846m shares worth 61.197m, which was 45.81% of the Total Turnover at
the Exchange today. Equity Bank has seen a Pick Up in Activity of late
and this confirms Buyers are absorbing Paper at these Levels. Equity
Bank is +36.77811% on a Total Return Basis in 2012 and sits 5.49%
below its 2012 Closing High of 22.75 from June 21st and July 25th This
Year.

Equity Bank share price data here +36.77811% 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTc%3D

Barclays Bank traded 3rd. Barclays Bank eased 0.35% to close at 14.25
and traded 864,700 shares worth 12.356m.
Diamond Trust Bank ticked 3.141% higher to close at 98.5 and traded
5,100 shares.
Standard Chartered eased 2.0304% to close at 193.00 and traded 9,900 shares.
COOP Bank eased 0.45% to close at 11.05 and traded 454,700 shares.

Kenya Re retreated 5.6074% to close at 10.10 and traded 28,900 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL was ticked 2.5974% lower to close at 225.00 and traded 6,100 shares.

Athi River Mining was low ticked 8.415% to close at 185.00 on just 200 shares.

Unga firmed 2.479% to close at 12.40 and traded 5,100 shares



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2012
 
 
 
 
 
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