home | rich profile | rich freebies | rich tools | rich data | online shop | my account | register |
  rich wrap-ups | **richLIVE** | richPodcasts | richRadio | richTV  | richInterviews  | richCNBC  | 
Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 12th of September 2012

 Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

#Mindspeak 2012 RICH TV

Aly-Khan Satchu: Going Bullish on Africa #NZZCMF #YouTube Credit
Suisse Interview with Cushla Sherlock

Macro Thoughts


Home Thoughts

Africa from the Sky

The North of the #African Continent #Egypt from the Sky Twitpic

Pemba #Mozambique from the Air #Africa 98 days ago Twitpic

The Snows of Kilimanjaro Twitpic

read more

¥2 billion deal nationalizes the Senkakus By MASAMI ITO The Japan Times
Law & Politics

The government signed a ¥2.05 billion contract Tuesday with the owner
of three of the five Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea,
effectively nationalizing the territory and immediately drawing a
strong protest from Beijing, which sent surveillance ships to the

The government also officially approved a ¥2.05 billion reserve fund
budget for the deal to buy the Senkaku islets of Uotsuri, Kitakojima
and Minamikojimaku from Kunioki Kurihara, a businessman from Saitama

The Chinese Foreign Ministry was quick to blast the nationalization as
"totally illegal and invalid" and "a gross violation of China's
sovereignty over its own territory."

It warned Japan's action could have "serious consequences" and vowed
that China would take unspecified "necessary measures to protect its
territorial sovereignty." China claims the islets, which it calls


The Japanese Timing is interesting and speaks to a Sense that the
Chinese Leadership has dropped the Ball what with Xinping MIA.

The Chinese Government is as triangulated by The Nationalist Wing as
the Japanese.

To surrender on this Issue is surely unconcionable for the Chinese.

And therefore, This is a high Beta Situation.

A fishing boat sails around a group of disputed islands known as
Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China in the East China Sea Reuters

Paging Mr. Xi Jinping NewYorker

He’s about five feet ten, dark hair, dark suit, red tie, Mona Lisa
smile. Did you happen to see him go by here?

US: No time for Obama-Netanyahu meeting The Jerusalem Post

For the first time since taking office, Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu is slated to visit the United States without meeting US
President Barack Obama.

Netanyahu said that those who do not place “red lines” in front of
Iran have no moral right to put a “red light” in front of Israel when
it comes to military action.

According to the sources, the White House said this was the result of
scheduling problems. Obama’s schedule is full, with campaign events
around the country in the run-up to the November 6 election.


President Obama might be seeking to disavow Bibi of the Notion that
Bibi is the Decider and not Obama.

Bibi beats the Drums of War

Somali militants brand new president a "traitor" Reuters

Al Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mahmud Rage said the group did not
regard the election as being in the Somali people's interests.

"They represent Western interests, and interests of their agents in
the region," he said in a statement.

"The so-called election came to maintain the status quo, allowing
foreign companies to steal Somalia's resources and to destroy its
economy. Sharif's replacement is nothing more than a revised edition
of traitors serving those interests."

"We will continue to fight these apostates as we have been fighting
them before," he said.

read more

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade

Euro 1.2868  Euro touched 1.2883, the highest since May 1
Dollar Index 79.83
Japan Yen 77.90
Swiss Franc 0.9386
Pound 1.6071 strongest since May 15
Aussie 1.0472 touched 1.0480, the strongest level since Aug. 23
India Rupee 55.285 djfxtrader: #India July Industrial Output +0.1% On
Year vs +0.50% Expected; July Manufacturing Output -0.2% On Year
South Korea Won 1126.34 won advanced for a fifth day, rising as much
as 0.2 percent to a one-month high of 1,125.60 per dollar
Brazil Real 2.0166
Egypt Pound 6.0917
South Africa Rand 8.1553

The euro gained 3 percent in the past month, the best performance
among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar slid 2.2 percent, while the
yen fell 1.6 percent.


The FX Markets see Further Monetary Stimuli from the FED as
predictable and predicted.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 1.28672 Last

I look for a Move through 1.2900 and towards 1.3300. My Reasoning is
that the Draghi Plan is a ParCours where one did not exist before and
secondly I see QE3 as entirely predicted.

Super Mario Draghi and His #Euro 2.0 The #Star

I have spent my life studying the linguistics of the world’s central
bankers. I ran short-term interest trad- ing desks. And the biggest
impact on interest rates is of course, the central banker. I actually
enjoy studying and parsing the semantics, the language, the emphasis
of central bankers. You have to weigh every nuance with the same care
that you might hold a Fabergé egg. The personality of the central
banker is also key. He or she has to be compel- ling and never

Last week, I was invited to speak about Africa in Zurich at a
conference hosted by the Neue Zurcher Zeitung and Credit Suisse. The
current Swiss central banker Thomas J. Jordan, his predecessor Thomas
Hildebrand, the previous head of the Bundesbank Axel Weber amongst
many European banking personalities spoke on the first day about the
Euro. My day one takeaway was that they were complacent but later I
realised that they had evidently met Mario Draghi and what I was
perceiving as complacency was in fact a real sense of confidence that
they had a secret silver bullet and that was super Mario.

Mario Draghi is a super star in my world. He came up with a plan which
can work and he has an air about him which is persuasive and
compelling. The triple bottom line is that this is not a fellow to bet
against. The Euro rallied sharply last week as he outlined his
programme called outright monetary transactions as those betting
against the Euro ran for the hills and covered their shorts.

Draghi has effectively triangulated the politicians and those
governments that will seek help. He has established a new Euro

What Draghi has done is remove the tail risk from the Euro Area. Last
year, Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said “As
protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad
outcomes,” he answered.

I do not expect a sharp rebound in the Euro area yet but the downside,
the vortex risk has been back stopped and thats a major achievement.

The Department of the Treasury #Washington QE and the Money Printing Gig Twitpic

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.831 Last

Moody’s, which placed a negative outlook on the U.S.’s Aaa grade in
August 2011, said in a statement yesterday that the rating would
probably be cut to Aa1 if no policy is passed to address a mounting
debt to GDP ratio.


The 2012 Top is in Place and This Index probably aims for 77.40.

Sterling 3 Month Chart INO 1.6078 Last strongest since May 15

read more

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 97.20 Last

Crude for October delivery was at $97.19 a barrel, up 2 cents, in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:06 p.m.
Singapore time. The contract yesterday rose 0.7 percent to $97.17, the
highest close since Aug. 22. Prices are 1.7 percent lower this year.


Headed through 100.00

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1737.00 Last at a 6 Month High

Its a Wizard of Oz World and Gold is headed to Fresh All Time Highs.

Soybean Reserves Smallest in Four Decades After Drought Bloomberg

Reserves will be the lowest since 1973 by March, estimates INTL
FCStone Inc., which handled $75 billion of physical commodities in
2011. Futures will advance 18 percent to an all-time high of $20 a
bushel in three months, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts.

“The U.S. will simply run out of soybeans” for exports on March 1,
said Doug Jackson, an FCStone vice president in West Des Moines, Iowa,
who has been a grain-industry analyst since 1974. “The supply
situation is unprecedented. The theoretical maximum South American
shipping capacity may fall short, leaving world buyers wanting.”

Soybean futures have jumped 41 percent to $17.015 this year on the
Chicago Board of Trade, and soybean meal, used in livestock feed,
surged 65 percent to $515.90 per 2,000 pounds (0.91 metric ton). The
Standard & Poor’s GSCI Agricultural Index of eight commodities
advanced 16 percent as corn rose 20 percent and wheat 35 percent. The
MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 10 percent, and a Bank
of America Corp. index shows Treasuries returned 2 percent.

Soybeans November 2012 1 Year Chart INO

Open Int.       356575
Contract High Date      2012-09-04 Contract High 1783.5
Contract Low Date       2010-02-12 Contract Low   928
Expiration      2012-11-14
First Delivery  2012-11-16

I have a supreme conviction that global food markets are but the
perturbation of a butterflys's wing away from a serious tipping point
        September 6, 2010

read more

Rwanda accused of still backing Congo rebels Via @KatrinaManson FT

A report published on Tuesday by Human Rights Watch, the US rights
group, accuses M23 rebels of carrying out war crimes, including
summary executions, rape and forced recruitment of child soldiers,
since they broke away from Congo’s army in April and occupied
territory north of the city of Goma.

Rwanda’s alleged involvement with the rebels makes Kigali liable to
charges, Human Rights Watch contends, arguing that the UN Security
Council should already be considering sanctions on high-ranking
officials allegedly responsible for violations of an arms embargo and
of international criminal law.

“From a legal perspective, because Rwanda is directly involved in the
conflict both in providing recruits and fighting it could be made
accountable for war crimes,” Anneke van Woudenberg, senior Africa
researcher at Human Rights Watch, said.

“The last thing we need is yet another unsolicited intervention by a
non-state actor desperate to make themselves relevant again,” Louise
Mushikiwabo, Rwanda’s foreign minister, said. “This kind of report, by
Human Rights Watch, based on the flimsiest imaginable evidence, is not
only unhelpful, it is dangerous. The situation on the ground is
volatile but improving.”


Do Watch The Rwanda FinMin @LMushikiwabo at  #Mindspeak here RICH TV

#Mindspeak The Post Show Interviews with Reuters, FT, Voice of America
CCTV @LMushikiwabo

#Mindspeak Hashtag Tracking FM @LMushikiwabo Twitpic

"There must be a national strike in all the mines," Malema Reuters


The Political Risks in South Africa are in fact a great deal more
elevated than currently priced by the Market.

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 8.151 Last

Still within its Trading Range of 8.05-8.55 which has been in place
for more than 100 Days but the Rand is near the Top of the trading

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg +57.2887% 2012 20 Month High


Super Mario Draghi and His #Euro 2.0 The #Star

Now, let me a throw out a view which is quite contrarian. The super
Mario Draghi Euro 2.0 plan and an imminent round of further QE
[Quantitative Easing) A central bank implements quantitative easing by
buying financial assets from commercial banks and other private
institutions with newly created money - magic money freshly minted out
of thin air] from the FED is set to increase the amount of FIAT
currency in circulation and this money needs to find a home. The
typical safe havens like the Swiss Franc and a number of other
reflexive homes have shut their doors. A tsunami of liquidity might
well be headed towards Africa.

read more

KenolKobil issues an Update on Cautionary Statement here
Kenyan Economy

Puma Energy will complete its Due Diligence on the Company this Month
We expect the Outcome of the Due Diligence and subsequent Negotiations
to be satisfactory. If so, Puma Energy may proceed with a Transaction
subject applicable Regulatory Approvals, compliance with the Capital
Markets Act, and Price Confirmation.

Negotiations with Puma Energy continue to progress well in line with

My Commentary Yesterday

I reckon the Pull Back is over. They remain in a Discussion with the
Trafigura Subsidiary Puma Energy with a View to a Buy Out and I think
the Strategic Sense in that Transaction for Puma Energy [They are
inserting themselves into what is becoming a Red Got Oil and Gas Space
in East Africa] outweighs the Near Term Earnings Mis Hap and therefore
I expect the Price to turn higher again as Investors figure what
Trafigura might Pay and I think at the very minimum it is 17.68+.

KenolKobil share Price Data and H1 Earnings Release here +35.979% 2012

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           13.10
Total Shares Issued:          1471600000.00
Market Capitalization:        19,277,960,000
EPS:             2.21
PE:                 5.928

Major energy supplier in the Region.

KenolKobil reports H1 2012 Earnings here
Sales 103.825177b versus 83.231830b +24.7421%
Cost of Sales 101.992603b versus 77.098385b +32.28888%
Gross Profit 1.832574b versus 6.133445b -70.12162%
Admin Expenses 1.878302b versus 1.402683b +33.9078%
Exchange Losses -4.247272b versus +0.842635b +404.0464%
Finance Costs 1.136125b versus 0.448827b +153.13%
H1 Profit Before Tax -5.683516b versus +3.275991b
Income tax +1.785163b versus -1.061149b
H1 Profit After Tax -3.898353b versus +2.214841b

Company Commentary
Losses from Foreign Exchange Hedges taken in H2 2011 and 1st 2 Months of 2012
Financing Costs increased by 253%
Borrowings increased by 40% End June 2012 versus End June 2011

The Week That Was From Sarkozy to Puma Energy 14th May 2012

The East African oil and gas sector is simply red hot. And I like the
way Puma Energy is seeking to enter the landscape. Its a little subtle
and tangential

11 September – Kenya Market Update with Aly-Khan Satchu @CNBC @LarryMadowo

Thanks @LarryMadowo Twitpic

Mombasa The Next Big Secession Movement? (4 September 2012) Monocle Radio

Coast Problems are deeper than #Mombasa Riots The Star

There is a sense of disenfranchisement and disempowerment, a sense
that the Pwani has not been in a win win deal with the centre and this
evidently applies all along the Swahili Coast from Lamu [where Aboud
Rogo was born] through Mombasa [The MRC whose slogan Pwani si Kenya I
noticed all over the Walls in Likoni] and up to Zanzibar [Uamsho The
Awakening] and all points in between.

My concern remains that what appear like uncorrelated spikes and
paroxysms of violence conflate, become more broad based and amplify.

I am sure just off shore and in the Indian Ocean, we are sitting on a
wonderful energy prize. We need to craft a road map that effects
economic trickledown because whilst all our eyes were turned towards
the Rift Valley, The Pwani has been simmering. It needs our full

The Palm Trees and The Beach Diani Kenya Twitpic

Diani Beach Kenya

Apache Plugs Kenyan Well in Absence of Commercial Oil or Gas Bloomberg

Apache Corp. (APA), the third-largest U.S. independent oil and
natural-gas producer by market value, said it will plug a Kenyan
exploration well after failing to find commercial quantities of crude
or natural gas.

Apache will examine the drilling results and keep open the option of
re-entering the Mbawa-1 well in future if necessary, said Tim Gilblom,
managing director of the company’s Kenyan unit. Apache may drill one
more exploration well in Block L8 as soon as next year.

Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) and Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL, Apache’s
partners in the well, yesterday said they found Kenya’s first offshore
gas. The well has been deepened and a secondary target didn’t contain
hydrocarbons, London-based Tullow said today in a statement.

“The total amount of gas that has been found is not sufficient in
isolation to be seen to be commercial,” Energy Minister Kiraitu
Murungi told reporters today in Nairobi, the capital. “The results
give us encouragement that the next well to be drilled in the block
will likely result in a bigger discovery because of the geological
information being gathered from this well.”

Tullow fell as much as 2.2 percent in London trading and was down 1.3
percent at 1,368 pence as of 3:35 p.m.

The partners found 52 meters (171 feet) of gas at Mbawa-1 well,
located 70 kilometers (44 miles) from the coastal town of Malindi.
Drilling at two deeper secondary targets didn’t indicate any
hydrocarbons and the well will be plugged, Murungi said.

“We were drilling for oil,” Gilblom also told reporters in the
capital. “We’re not there yet, but we’ve learned quite a great deal
from the well.”


Well Well.

PCL:AU Bloomberg

0.1200 AUD -0.1150 -48.94%


The Tape is Your Telescope said Edwin Lefevre in Reminiscences of a
Stock Market Operator.
And Some One sold a lot of shares on the Run Up to 0.24.

Africa Oil share Price Data Bloomberg +598.6% 2012

9.9900 CAD
52wk Range:     1.1500 - 11.3500
1-Yr Rtn:       +598.60%
Market Cap (M CAD) 2,210.26

Africa Oil Kenya Map

The company holds six blocks in Kenya: Blocks 9, 10A, 10BB, 10BA, 12A and 13T.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +28.5189% 2012


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg Year To Date 14 Month High +21.84% 2012

14 Month Closing High.
The NSE20 has rallied 700 Points
+21.84% in 2012

read more

N.S.E Today

The NSE20 rallied 37.37 points to close at 3941.10 a Fresh 14 Month
Closing High.
The NSE20 Index has rallied 736 Points this Year and is +22.964% in 2012.
The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.66 points to close at 87.25.
Equity Turnover was 596.971m versus 381.228m.
This Bull Move has been floated higher on banner Volume, which
confirms its Bona Fides.
The Securities Exchange has traded volume of 2.54b Kenya Shillings
over the last 3 Sessions.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


shares volume 28,035,900
total turnover  120,398,264
avg price       4.29 Closing Price 4.25 Unchanged
high price      4.30
low price       4.20
last price      4.20


Safaricom traded 2nd at the Securities Exchange and closed unchanged
at 4.25 and traded 28.035m shares worth 120.398m. Safaricom is
+44.0677% in 2012 and has spiked 7.594% since the 6th September when
it crossed Key Resistance at 3.95, a Level that had Safaricom reached
on July 25th, July 26th, August 3rd and September 5th, this Year.
Safaricom trades on a Trailing PE of 13.3461.

Safaricom share Price Data and FY Earnings Release here +44.0677% 2012

ScanGroup traded 4th. ScanGroup traded 621,000 shares worth 36.018m
and all at 58.00 +0.87%. ScanGroup is +39.75% in 2012 and is 2.521%
below its 2012 and 23 Month Closing High of 59.50 from August 15th
This Year.

Uchumi closed unchanged at 17.05 and traded 857,000 shares. Uchumi has
posted a 120% Return in 2012.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank traded 6th. KCB rallied 2.775% to close at 27.75
which is a Fresh 52 week Closing High. KCB was trading and bid at
28.00 +3.7% at the Finish Line. KCB traded 1.139m shares and had Buy
Side Demand at the Closing Bell for 500% more shares than were traded
during the Session. Kenya Commercial Bank is +75.667% on a Total
Return Basis in 2012, trades on a Trailing PE of 7.4597, accelerated
H1 PBT 48.18% and a Price to Book of 1.8569. My Year End Objective at
the Beginning of the Year was 32.00.

Kenya Commercial Bank share Price data H1 2012 Earnings Release here
+75.667% 2012

Barclays Bank was the 3rd Most actively traded share and rallied
3.225% to close at 14.40 and was trading at Session Highs of 14.60
+4.66% at the Finish Line. Barclays Bank traded 2.959m shares worth
42.715m. Barclays Bank is +31.589% on a Total Return Basis in 2012 and
just 1.379% off its 2012 Closing High from August 30th. Barclays Bank
trades on a 9.7565 Trailing PE and The H1 PBT Acceleration Rate was

Barclays Bank share Price data H1 2012 Earnings here +31.589% 2012

Equity Bank traded 5th. Equity Bank rallied 3.26% to close at 23.75
and traded 1.354m shares worth 31.184m. Equity Bank has rallied 6.63%
over the last 2 Sessions and this is a Fresh 52 week Closing High.

Standard Chartered firmed 2.358% to close at 217.00 and traded 53,000
shares. Standard Chartered has considerable Head Room, I venture.
StanChart is +52% on a Total Return Basis in 2012, trades on a 10.987
Trailing PE and accelerated H1 2012 Profit Before Tax +87.501%.

Standard Chartered share Price data and H1 Earnings Release here +52% 2012

Centum retreated 2.0576% to close at 11.90 and traded 29,200 shares.
Centum is -11.85% in 2012 and 5.309% above a 52 week Low.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenolKobil issued an Update yesterday where They said ''Puma Energy
will complete its Due Diligence on the Company this Month. We expect
the Outcome of the Due Diligence and subsequent Negotiations to be
satisfactory. If so, Puma Energy may proceed with a Transaction
subject applicable Regulatory Approvals, compliance with the Capital
Markets Act, and Price Confirmation.'' They also said ''Negotiations
with Puma Energy continue to progress well in line with
Expectations.'' KenolKobil rebounded 9.1603% to close at 14.30 and was
trading for Most of the Session at the Daily Limit of 14.40 +9.92%.
KenolKobil traded 291,300 shares and had Buy Side Demand for in excess
of 1m shares. KenolKobil released its H1 2012 Earnings after the
Market closed Friday, then retreated 13.254% over 2 Sessions before
Todays Rebound.

EABL was the most actively traded share at the Exchange. EABL eased
0.44% to close at 228.00 and traded 586,000 shares worth 134.099m.
EABL has traded 6.746m shares over the last 3 Sessions which
represents 0.853% of its shares. EABL is +34.011% in 2012 and reported
Muscular FY Results, where FY Earnings Per Share increased +44.731182%
the Flagship Tusker Brand grew 17%, Serengeti Beer +49%, Senator +53%
and Johnnie Walker was +74%. EABL trades on a PE Ratio of 16.939.

EABL share Price data and FY Earnings Release is here +34.011% Total
Return in 2012

Please watch this Interview with the MD Devlin Hainsworth RICH TV

KenGen bucked the broad based Bull Trend and retreated 1.796% to close
at 8.20 and closed out the Session trading at 8.05 -3.59% session
lows. KenGen was heavily traded with 3.491m shares worth 28.662m
changing hands. KenGen trades on a 9.213 Trailing PE and accelerated
H1 PAT Earnings +33.01%. It is expected to report FY Earnings
imminently. KenGen is -2.95% in 2012 and that Underperformance versus
The Benchmark Index is overcooked. The Key Risk was around the Ability
of KenGen to source the Large Slugs of Capital required for the Bulk
Up. The Recent Launch of Olkaria IV confirms that sourcing Capital is
really no longer an Issue and therefore a Risk.

KenGen share price data and H1 Earnings here -2.95% 2012

Athi River Mining has closed at an All Time Closing High [and on the
Day that Pradeep Paunrana and KAM are hosting President Kikwete at the
Stanley] rallied 2.39% to close at 214.00. Athi River Mining traded
121,700 shares worth 26.097m.

Mumias Sugar eased 0.806% to close at 6.15 and traded 2.425m shares.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
Login / Register

Forgot your password? Register Now
September 2012

In order to post a comment we require you to be logged in after registering with us and create an online profile.