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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 06th of December 2012

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

This Saturday 8th December #Mindspeak is with Dr. @OduorMartinO and
@JoshuaOigara of @KCBGroup

#Mindspeak is held at the @InterConHotels Nairobi

@InterConNairobi a #Video Tour of the Presidential Suite

Doors Open and Breakfast is served from 900 am. We start at 1000 am.

Breakfast is served #Mindspeak #Africa 2.0 Twitpic

@KCBGroup It's New CEO and the Growth Path

The Sea Front Lamu and a Branch of @KCBGroup Twitpic

#Mindspeak 2012 RICH TV

It was a Pleasure catching up with Tim Carstens of Base Resources

Tim Carstens Base Titanium #Kwale Mineral Sands Twitpic

My Conviction Trade of 2012/2013 is to Buy Base Resources

Base Resources share price data here

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

The Little One sobbed this Morning and said

'You don't Love me.'

I said, 'Darling I love you more than the World ad I write about You every day.'

read more

"This, in my view, is the end of any legitimacy this regime has" Nobel laureate Mohamed el-Baradei
Law & Politics

Nobel laureate Mohamed el-Baradei, a leading opposition figure and
former presidential contender, accused the President's supporters of a
"vicious and deliberate" attack against peaceful demonstrators.

"This, in my view, is the end of any legitimacy this regime has," he
said. "A regime that is not able to protect its people and is siding
with his own thugs is a regime that lost its legitimacy and is leading
Egypt into violence."


Clearly, having been the Broker in Gaza, Having decapitated SCAF with
despatch, having hijacked the First Revolution at the Closing Bell,
having President @BarackObama at his Back, has scrambled Morsi's
Political antennae. This mis Step of thinking Mubarak Version 2 would
be acceptable is simply mind boggling and speaks to a 'Bulldozer'
Personality whose Free Pass has already expired.
Aly-Khan Satchu

Mohamed Morsi speaks during a press conference

"The Brotherhood must be dragged in the streets like dogs, there is no
salvation without blood after what they have done. Morsi must fall."

In the city of Ismailia, east of Cairo, protesters set alight the
headquarters of Morsi's Freedom and Justice party which is dominated
by the Brotherhood.

The value of the Syrian pound has dropped by more than 15 per cent on
the black market since the start of November FT

At the start of the uprising in March last year, the pound was selling
for about 47 per dollar through both official channels and the black
market. It has been sliding ever since, particularly on the black
market, as demand for foreign currency has surged while foreign
currency earnings from oil exports and tourism have all but
vanished.Until now, central bank interventions have mostly managed to
keep the pound’s depreciation at a manageable rate, with its black
market dollar value staying below 75 for most of the year.However, in
November it slipped into the 80s, and attempts by the authorities to
curb the black market by bringing official rates closer to it and
increasing the penalty for illegal trading did not prevent the pound’s
black market value from plunging to 90 this week, according to

“The economic situation is disastrous,” said one Damascus-based
economist. “They inject some money, but after a while it is absorbed
by the market – and we are back in the same situation.”

It is not clear how many more foreign reserves the central bank has
left to fight these pressures. Adib Mayaleh, Syria’s central bank
governor, told the FT in September that Syria had spent less than 10
per cent of its foreign exchange reserves since the start of the
crisis – although many independent analysts say well over half are
likely to have been spent, unless money has come from outside sources.

The central bank on Wednesday declined to respond to questions about
its foreign exchange holdings – which officially stood at $15.1bn in
August – the Syrian currency or the state of the wider economy.

Analysts say the government may eventually be forced to give up
defending the currency in order to protect its reserves.

“I think there are several indications that government has been under
strong pressure in the last few weeks,” said Jihad Yazigi, editor of
the Syria Report business newsletter. “At one point it’s going to
decide – do we fight the battle to the last man?”

Inflation, caused in part by disruption to production, manufacturing
and supply as the civil war escalates, is adding to exchange rate
pressures. In August the government said inflation was running at
about 40 per cent, now it is thought to be at about 50 per cent.

The regime meanwhile has a budget crisis on its hands, with revenues
forecast to decrease drastically, leaving a deficit of 745bn pounds
(about $10bn), according to government figures. A recent report that
banknotes have been flown in from Russia has fuelled speculation that
the authorities are printing money to plug the gap, potentially
increasing inflationary pressure.

According to the non-profit journalism site Pro Publica, 240 tonnes of
banknotes were flown in to Syria this summer from Russia, which
reportedly agreed to print Syrian money after previous printing
arrangements were affected by sanctions.

Though the ProPublica investigation did not find out the currency or
denomination of the money, David Butter, an economic analyst at the
Royal Institute for International Affairs, said that if it was in
Syrian pounds, the cargo would seem to represent “probably more than
would be required for a normal replacement of banknotes”.

For now, the regime is continuing to pay salaries. But economists say
the cumulative economic pressures of nearly two years of instability
may soon become as difficult to contain as the armed insurgency

“There’s symptoms that it is getting a lot tougher,” said Mr Butter.
“We’re not at the point of economic pressures tipping things away from
the regime, but we might not be too far from it.”


Looks very Fin De Siecle for Bashar Assad.

Assad faces life or death choice By Victor Kotsev

The Syrian civil war seems to have entered a critical phase, with
President Bashar al-Assad facing the choice of either stepping down or
fighting to the end, by all means available.

''Ali, a 28-year-old Alawite living in Lattakia, the regional capital,
said Alawite villages he recently visited had been nearly emptied of
men after the regime enforced conscription for any member of the
Alawite sect aged between 18 and 50," the Global Post reported. [2]

a sense of desperate urgency hangs over the country.

I love the sound of a drone in the morning By Pepe Escobar

Very quirky Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) production values
in the PR front.

"The US Navy has fully accounted for all unmanned air vehicles (UAV)
operating in the Middle East region."

Maybe it's a terminology problem; Iran is actually in Southwest Asia
(so lost drones in a "pivoting" area don't count). But wait; it gets
better. The spokesman also said, "We have no record that we have lost
any ScanEagles recently." So the Navy lost not only a drone but also
the records.

Iran captures another US spy drone: ScanEagle YouTube

read more

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade

Euro 1.3047  it touched 1.3127 the highest since Oct. 18, yesterday.
Dollar Index 79.89
Japan Yen 82.40 weakened 0.7 percent
Swiss Franc 0.9277
Pound 1.6084
Aussie 1.0462
India Rupee 54.445
South Korea Won 1083.44 djfxtrader: #BOK Official: Hard to Meet
Forecast of 2.4% Growth This Year; South #Korea Economy Unlikely to
Improve Much in Near Future [DJ] #KRW
Brazil Real 2.0877
Egypt Pound 6.1198
South Africa Rand 8.7789

The euro has fallen 1.8 percent this year, according to Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen’s 9.9 percent drop is the
biggest decline among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by
the gauge. The dollar lost 2.6 percent.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart 82.44 Last

The yen’s 9.9 percent drop is the biggest decline among the 10
developed-nation currencies tracked by the gauge.

The Bank of Japan (8301) is ready to take “appropriate and decisive
action” if risks to its outlook become significant, Deputy Governor
Kiyohiko Nishimura said in a speech yesterday before the central bank
sets policy on Dec. 20.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 1.3045

Standard & Poor’s downgraded Greece to selective default. The euro
area’s GDP probably slipped 0.1 percent in the third quarter from the
previous three-month period, according to the median estimate of
economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.  Greece’s credit grade was cut
to SD, or selective default, from CCC, S&P said on its website
yesterday. The nation has offered 10 billion euros ($13.1 billion) to
buy back bonds issued earlier this year in an attempt to cut a debt
load that may threaten future international aid.


Buy Dips.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.911 Last

read more

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 87.72 Last

Crude for January delivery was at $87.65 a barrel, down 23 cents, in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:48 p.m.
Singapore time. Prices fell 62 cents yesterday to close at $87.88 a
barrel, the lowest since Nov. 28. Futures have dropped 11 percent this


Scatching around in this 85-89 Range as it has been for a while.

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1689.74 Last

Spot gold slid as much as 0.4 percent to $1,687.15 an ounce, and was
at $1,690.88 at 3:34 p.m. in Singapore. The metal fell to $1,684.93
yesterday, the least expensive since Nov. 6.


Trades very heavy and points at a Big Player being squeezed out of a
Position. Paulson?

Oscar Niemeyer And Modern Architecture

Niemeyer is one of the key figures in modern architecture of the XX
and XXI centuries. The genius of his line born no less that 457
buildings in various continents. A pioneer in the exploration of the
constructive possibilities of reinforced concrete and plastic,
Brazilian dared to break the monotony prevailing rationality back in
the 40′s. Stresses in his originality of your stroke and your
imagination when designing the buildings , always winding,
revolutionaries like himself.

For Niemeyer, the curved line becomes the protagonist. Thus sentencing
the great architect, “is not the right angle that attracts me, nor the
straight line, hard, inflexible, created by men. What attracts me is
the free and sensual curves. The curve I find in the mountains of my
country, Brazil , in the winding course of rivers, sea waves, the
clouds of heaven, in the body of the woman he loves. Curve is made all
the universe. ”

Oscar Niemeyer Architecture

The Perfect Box of Chocolates WSJ

The precise sourcing of cocoa beans from previously unimagined corners
of the tropics has led to new palettes of flavors and complicated
labels. In response, chocolate lovers have become ever more demanding,
as they calibrate the cocoa content of their candy bars and crave
fresh flavor combinations. Now, for a small group of aficionados with
a bit of time and a lot of spare change, that novelty has come home to
roost. Some of Europe's premier chocolate labels are offering a
bespoke service that allows customers to adjust the look and tweak the
taste of their truffles and pralines. With firms like Switzerland's
Confiserie Sprüngli and Belgium's Mary, chocolatier to the Belgian
royal family, willing to collaborate with clients, it is as if Château
Mouton Rothschild decided to let customers design their own wine
bottle, or ramp up the Cabernet Franc in their personal cuvée.

read more

Brazil Real 3 Month Chart INO 2.0865 Last
Emerging Markets

The currency advanced 1.5 percent to 2.0879 per U.S. dollar at the
close in Sao Paulo, the biggest advance since June 29. The real
climbed the most among 25 emerging-market currencies. The real
extended its gain after a central bank official said in an interview
that policy makers considered the currency’s drop excessive. Brazil
reduced today the maturity of foreign loans subject to a 6 percent tax
to one year from two years after announcing yesterday it would exempt
exporters from the same level of tax on some borrowing.

Policy makers maintain that the real has weakened to a level that
doesn’t correspond to the country’s economic fundamentals, said the
central bank official, who asked not to be identified because he is
not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. Traders wrongly bet
that the government is working to keep the exchange rate within a
determined range, the official said in an interview.Policy makers
intervened in the currency market on Dec. 3 to stem the real’s decline
after it closed last week at a three- year low.


Quite an About Turn. Probably worried it might have turned disorderly.

Frontier Markets

read more

Rwanda May Delay Eurobond Sale, Cut Growth Forecast on Aid Cuts Bloomberg

Rwanda may reduce its growth forecast for 2013 to as low as 6 percent
and delay a global debt offering because of aid cuts over the
country’s alleged backing of a rebellion in Congo, central bank
Governor Claver Gatete said.

The extent of the slowdown will depend on how deeply the government
needs to cut capital spending, he said today in an interview in
Kigali, the capital. In June, Finance Minister John Rwangombwa
forecast the economy would grow 7.7 percent this year compared with
8.6 percent in 2011.

“We had projected 7.5 percent next year and the impact now could be
between 1 and 1.5 percentage points,” he said. “That depends on how
the government is going to re-prioritize what to cut -- if it’s an
electricity or water project, a road project - - and how that will
affect the economy.”

Donors including the U.K., the Netherlands and Germany suspended aid
to Rwanda after a United Nations group of experts accused the country
of supporting rebels fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of
Congo. Rwandan President Paul Kagame denies the allegations.

The cuts equal about 12 percent of planned expenditure through June
2013, Gatete said. Lawmakers are scheduled to vote on any proposed
budget adjustments in January, he said.

The government will also hold back on plans for its first global debt
offering as early as this month because the “political” situation has
rattled market confidence, which may drive up borrowing costs, Gatete
said. Rwangombwa said in May the country planned to raise $300 million
in U.S.-dollar dominated bonds in 2013.

Rwanda’s ratings outlook was lowered to stable from positive at
Standard & Poor’s in October, which cited the aid freeze as a reason.
S&P and Fitch Ratings have both assigned Rwanda a B long-term
sovereign credit rating, five steps below investment grade and on par
with the African nations of Uganda, Mozambique and Seychelles.

Rwanda is trying to wean the economy off outside budgetary aid, which
accounts for about 40 percent of planned expenditure for 2012-13,
partly because the country doesn’t want to be beholden to the agendas
of foreign governments, Gatete said.

The government is operating a development fund, known as Agaciro,
which means dignity in the local Kinyarwanda language, with voluntary
contributions from citizens and other benefactors, raising 25 billion
francs ($40 million) since it started in August, said Gatete. The
proceeds will help develop infrastructure and advance education and
health programs.

“For Rwanda, now we understand whether you are genuine in terms of
giving your money or not,” Gatete said. “What we can see now is that
it’s money tied to politics.”


If Anyone has the wherewithal and the Organisation to deal with these
circumstances its the Government of Rwanda.

HE @PaulKagame #Mindspeak

HE @PaulKagame discarded his Speech and spoke off the Cuff #Mindspeak

HE @PaulKagame #Mindspeak - Kigali, 18 August 2011 #YouTube 2 Hours 45 mins

Thank You Madam Foreign Minister @LMushikiwabo #Rwanda #Mindspeak Twitpic

Rwanda Foreign Minister @LMushikiwabo  #Mindspeak 2012 RICH TV

The Man Who Made Billions Off Congo in His 20s Bloomberg TV

One Israeli investor has become very rich indeed from Congo's mining
reserves. Dan Gertler is a billionaire who loves business but likes to
keep a very low profile.

Gertler whose grandfather co-founded Israel’s diamond exchange in 1947
arrived in Congo in 1997

“Look at it, look at it,” the Israeli billionaire, 38, shouts through
the headset above the thrum of rotors. “This is what life is all

“Look at it, look at it,” the Israeli billionaire, 38, shouts through
the headset above the thrum of rotors. “This is what life is all
about,” Gertler says as the chopper lands in the scorching, dry
afternoon heat of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

“Everyone comes with dreams and illusions and promises. Everyone wants
quick deals. They don’t want to invest. We are real.”

His Gibraltar- registered Fleurette Properties Ltd. owns stakes in
various Congolese mines through at least 60 holding companies in
offshore tax havens such as the British Virgin Islands.

Gertler, whose grandfather co-founded Israel’s diamond exchange in
1947, arrived in Congo in 1997 seeking rough diamonds. The 23-year-old
trader struck a deep friendship with Joseph Kabila, who then headed
the Congolese army and today is the nation’s president. Since those
early days, Gertler has invested in iron ore, gold, cobalt and copper
as well as agriculture, oil and banking. In the process, he’s built up
a net worth of at least $2.5 billion, according to the Bloomberg
Billionaires Index.

“He has political connections, so state companies sell him mines for
low prices and he sells them on for huge profits. That’s how he’s
become a billionaire.”

In the eight months preceding November 2011 elections, in which Kabila
won a second five-year term, companies affiliated with Gertler bought
shares in five mining ventures from three state-owned firms, according
to minutes of board meetings, company filings and documents published
later. The state companies didn’t announce the sales.

In at least three of the cases, prices paid were below valuations of
the projects made by analysts at Deutsche Bank AG, London-based Numis
Securities Ltd. and Oriel Securities Ltd. and Atlanta-based consulting
firm Golder Associates Inc.

Gertler denies that he purchased companies at below-market rates or
that any of his deals have involved kickbacks.

“The lies are screaming to the heavens,” he says in his native Hebrew
in a June interview, during three days Bloomberg reporters spent with
him in Congo and Israel.

Gertler says disclosing the deals to the public is the Congolese
government’s responsibility, not his. “We’re a private company. Why
should we announce?” he says.

“I should get a Nobel Prize,” adds Gertler, who paces around and waves
his arms as his demeanor swings between anger and boyish charm during

And Kabila, 41, defends Gertler as a man who staked his fortune on
Congo at a time when the country was wracked by war and in desperate
need of cash.

“The truth is, during our very difficult times, there were investors
who came and left and others who braved the hurricane,” he said of
Gertler in a brief interview at his riverside palace in December 2011.
“He’s one of those.”

The bond between the two men is so strong that Kabila at times uses
Gertler as a special diplomatic envoy, including in 2002, when the
Israeli businessman met with then-U.S. National Security Adviser
Condoleezza Rice in Washington to ask for help ending Congo’s war with
its neighbors.

The Very Frontier of the Frontier A Picture of the currently defunct
Kinshasa Marche De Valeurs

Fastjet says in partnership talks with Emirates Airline Reuters

Fastjet Plc said it was in potential partnership talks with Emirates
Airline, sending it shares up as much as 7 percent on London's AIM.

"Talks are at an early stage but this represents a great opportunity
for both parties," Fastjet Chief Executive Ed Winter said in a

Fastjet (FJET.L), which began commercial flights last month, was set
up after British investment firm Rubicon acquired the aviation unit of
industrial group Lonrho Plc (LONR.L) for $86 million in June.

FastJet share price data here Bloomberg

3.7000 GBp 0.0500 +1.37%
52wk Range:     2.6250 - 8.6250
Market Cap (M GBP)      65.23


Its as small as an Aperitif for Emirates, in fact.

Mozambique Opposition Says Stronghold Attacked by Police Bloomberg

Mozambican opposition group Renamo said a police unit yesterday
attacked its stronghold in the central Sofala Province in some of the
worst armed violence since a 15-year civil war ended in 1992.Some
people were killed and wounded in the attack by the police unit, known
by its Portuguese acronym FIR, in the Gorongosa area, Gilberto
Chirindza, deputy head of information for the opposition party, said
by mobile phone today, declining to give further information and
saying a press conference will be held tomorrow. Calls to the
Mozambican police weren’t answered.

“Reports are still coming in bit by bit, but we were attacked by FIR
and our leader Afonso Dhlakama was present when the attack took place.
So far that is all we know,” Alberto Masango, a Renamo official in
neighboring Manica Province said by mobile phone.

Mozambique is the site of an aluminum smelter operated by BHP Billiton
while Rio Tinto Ltd. and Vale SA have coal operations in the country.
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Eni SpA have discovered natural gas off
its coast.


Needs to be watched but this is a Warning Shot across the Bows.

Afonso Dhlakama Renamo Leader

04-JUN-2012 :: Maputo, Boom Town

GREETINGS from the Serena Polana, Maputo. I can confirm that Maputo is
the land of wonderful and flavoursome tiger prawns. The Architecture
is also deliciously retro. By the way, the Polana was built in 1922
and the flavour is fabulously Riviera and very swanky. It is less than
4 hours by plane from Nairobi and surely set to be the most of in
things and places to visit. Of course, Mozambique has popped large
onto the global radar because of gas reserves that have been
discovered offshore and in the deep sea.

Pemba #Mozambique from the Air #Africa Twitpic

The Polana at Sun Rise @SerenaHotels #Maputo Twitpic

Leaving Inhaca Island Life #Mozambique Twitpic

The Cathedral Praca de Independencia #Maputo #Africa Twitpic

Uganda Cuts Benchmark Rate Ninth Time This Year to Spur Growth Bloomberg

Uganda’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the ninth
time this year to stimulate borrowing and spur economic growth.

The Bank of Uganda lowered the policy rate to 12 from 12.5 percent,
Governor Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile told reporters today in the
capital, Kampala. The median estimate of four economists surveyed by
Bloomberg was a reduction of 25 basis points.

The central bank lowered borrowing costs by 10.5 percentage points in
the first 10 months of the year, reversing last year’s rate increases.
Growth slowed to 3.2 percent in the year through June from 6.7 percent
in the previous 12 months, according to the Uganda Bureau of
Statistics. The economy will probably expand 5.4 percent this fiscal
year, it said.

Inflation in the East Africa’s third-biggest economy accelerated for
the first time in nine months in November to 4.9 percent from 4.5
percent in October after prices of some food items rose, the Uganda
Bureau of Statistics said on Nov. 30.


Ignoring the Blip Higher in Inflation and looking at the weakening
Growth Profile.

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 8.7796 Last

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg Year To Date: +40.033% 2012


read more

Kenya bomb blast wounds nine people in Nairobi Reuters
Kenyan Economy

Moses Ombati, Nairobi's police chief, said it appeared the bomb had
been planted near a trader's kiosk earlier in the day.

"We think it was detonated by remote control," Ombati said by phone
from the blast site where plastic household utensils littered the

The attack appeared to target Kenyan nationals in Eastleigh, a rundown
part of the city where there is widespread resentment towards the
Somali immigrants who run many of the local businesses.

Nine people were wounded in the blast and three of those victims were
in a critical condition, the Kenyan Red Cross said on the social media
site Twitter.

An angry crowd pressed against a police cordon and demanded that
Somalis, many of whom fled years of fighting in their home country to
settle in Nairobi, leave the city.

"Why is this happening to the local people and not the Somalis. Let
the police leave this place and we'll sort it out," said one Eastleigh
resident who did not give his name.


If it is The Al Shabaab [and as at the time of filing this Their
Twitter Handle @HSMPress had not commented] then They are trying to
drive a Wedge between the Somalia Diaspora in Kenya and Kenyans.

Eastleigh Nairobi FLICKR

Eveready East Africa Ltd reports FY 2012 EPS 33cents a share Results
here +5.714% 2012

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           1.85
Total Shares Issued:          210000000.00
Market Capitalization:        388,500,000
EPS:             0.33
PE:                5.606

Kenyan battery manufacturer.

FY Through September 2012 versus FY through September 2011
Turnover 1.374789b versus 1.374847b
Finance Costs +817 versus [129.501m]
FY PBT 70.084m versus [123.994m]
FY Earnings Per Share 0.33 versus [0.59]
No Dividend


The improving Narrative was signalled at the Half Year Mark.
Basically, Eveready aggressively paid down Debt.

Swot Analysis 6 Months through March 2012 versus six months through March 2011
Turnover 714.674m versus 659.672m
Finance Costs +41.002m versus -38.304m -> Company citing 64m in
Exchange Gains 21% Reduction in Borrowings over the Period
Profit Before Tax 66.972m versus -72.223m
Profit After Tax 44.48m versus 53.989m
Earnings Per Share 0.21 versus -0.26


Much better Results than I had expected but the Sweetener was around
the 64m in Exchange Gains.

Tourism boost as Turkish Airlines makes first, direct flight to Coast Nation


Turkey is making a Play for the Eastern Sea Board of Africa. Note
their Early Arrival in Mogadishu.

The Eastern SeaBoard of Africa a Photo Journey

Real Time 1818 #Serena Indian Ocean #Mombasa 881 Days Ago Twitpic

The Setting Sun Lamu 803 Days ago

Fort #Jesus #Mombasa A view out to Sea 707 Days Ago

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 85.686 Last

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +35.02866% in 2012

The Nairobi All Share  has corrected 2.1725% since the 26th of
November. The Correction has been orderly.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg Year To Date  +26.5834% in 2012

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

read more

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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December 2012

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