home | rich profile | rich freebies | rich tools | rich data | online shop | my account | register |
  rich wrap-ups | **richLIVE** | richPodcasts | richRadio | richTV  | richInterviews  | richCNBC  | 
Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 19th of December 2012
 
Morning
Africa

Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

#Mindspeak 2012 RICH TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php

The Future is not seen in the Rearview Mirror The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/040NSX1712.pdf

The report says; ‘We are at a critical juncture in human history,
which could lead to widely contrasting futures. It is our contention
that the future is not set in stone, but is malleable, the result of
an interplay among megatrends, game-changers and, above all, human
agency.’

Vinod Khosla
http://images.forbes.com/media/lists/10/2010/vinod-khosla.jpg

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

The Mosaic at the #Nairobi Museum Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/bn8svj

His Excellency The Saudi Arabia Ambassador to Kenya
http://www.twitpic.com/b2c9vq

came over Dinner last Night and gave me the most exquisite Oudh.

Oudh reminds me of a blend of vetiver birch tar sandalwood, guiacwood
vetiveryl acetate, patchouli and some spicy notes like the note of
clove but its more complex than that.

Oudh takes me into all kinds of Remembrances of things Past. I had a
Friend called Abdullah Zubeidi in Mombasa, whose Mother had the most
exquisite Oudh and I would find myself pacing 'around hungry sniffing
the twilight' and I never found that Scent until last night.

Al these Fellows like Tom Ford Christian Dior have tried and failed to
get the Essence.

And last night it must have been Midnight and I wanted to scream and say

This is The Real Deal [Evander Holyfield].

So I am in Olfactory Ecstasy.

Thank You.

The Big Interview – A man of his words KENYA YETU
http://kenyayetu.net/the-big-interview-a-man-of-his-words/

Kenya’s foremost investment guru, Aly-Khan Satchu, began his career in
finance in a bank postroom, mailing letters; two decades on he is a
man of letters, renowned as a speaker and author. So why is he sharing
his secrets with the rest of us? Interview by Dinfin Mulupi.

Aly-Khan Satchu is a man who has built his reputation by putting his
mouth where his money is.

The world is awash with get-rich-quick books. A few have the ring of
authority, written by those with sizeable personal wealth, but contain
little real insight. Others are lightweight potboilers peddled by
snake-oil salesmen, created to make nobody rich except the author and
publisher.

Aly-Khan’s book is different – and not just because of his
credentials. This, after all, is a man who has handled the kind of
money most Kenyans can’t even dream about. In 1995, as a managing
director at Sumitomo Bank, he controlled funds of some $17 billion, or
about Ksh 1.4 trillion – roughly equivalent to Kenya’s entire
2012/2013 budget. His knowhow is in high demand: National governments
– DR Congo, Mozambique, South Sudan – and corporations such as East
African Breweries and KCB Bank have his number on speed-dial. He has
even been compared to the US business magnate and billionaire Warren
Buffet. So why is he so free with his insights, on his financial
portal www.rich.co.ke as well as in his book?

That his publishing debut is called Anyone Can Be Rich tells a lot
about the author’s attitude to investment and his homeland. He’s a
sharer: he believes that when everyone does well – individuals,
organisations, countries – he stands to share in the benefits. And he
really believes that the possibilities in Africa – and, in particular,
Kenya – are huge.

“In Kenya you can paint on a massive canvas. The opportunities are
limitless” It’s a belief on which his current business is based and
named. Aly-Khan is founder and chief executive of Rich Management
Limited, a Nairobi Securities Exchange-authorised data vendor offering
investment advisory services. He chose the name after a conversation
with an acquaintance who opined that Africa was an impoverished
continent.

“He was convinced Africa is poor – but I corrected him: Africa is
going to be rich,” Aly-Khan affirms. “What he missed is that, for the
first time, there is a very speedy convergence with the world. Africa
is a place of maximum opportunity. It’s a once-in-a-century moment.”

Aly-Khan has long played advisor-turned-ambassador, working to
convince investors to plough funds into Kenya and other countries on
the continent. One often-raised concern was that live trading boards
aren’t accessible, as they are in London, Japan or New York. To
address that problem, he incorporated live trading feeds
into his website www.rich.co.ke, as well as financial advice.

But the direction Rich Management has gone in has taken even its
creator aback. “It is like an interception point between investor
relations, messages dispatched by companies, digital media, and advice
for and about stock markets and governments,” he muses.

It’s a novel model – so it’s no surprise that it took a long time to
break even. “I had an opportunity other people might not have,”
Aly-Khan says. “I wasn’t desperate for money. I held this business
lower for longer because I could see where the opportunity would come.
I did not want to misprice my business.”

And today Aly-Khan is, perhaps understandably, optimistic about the
company’s future.

“I want to go pan-African. In five years’ time I want to have a $1
billion turnover.”

“I knew the continent was going to take off, and I didn’t want to be
watching it from afar – I wanted to be in it”

Today, Aly-Khan isn’t so much a rising star as one comfortably shining
high in the firmament. And looking back at himself as a boy, born in
Mombasa but raised in Nairobi, then London, his destiny seems obvious.

“I have lived and breathed the financial markets since I was nine
years old. The moment I was most excited each week was when my dad
brought home The Economist,” he recalls.

Yet his route to the trading floor wasn’t exactly direct. Despite his
youthful obsession with finance, he studied Law at the University of
Durham in the UK, and was earmarked to become a barrister.

“My father and grandfather were both lawyers – but law wasn’t my
passion. It was a good exercise in learning, though, and in discipline
– in conducting my business and my life.”

But when financial support from his father was cut in the early 1990s,
Aly-Khan took a temporary job at a bank. For six months he acted as a
postboy, printing contracts, stuffing them in envelopes and
distributing the letters. He compares his job in the back office to
that of the guy who polishes the football players’ boots.
“I wanted to get on the team,” he recalls. He just needed the chance
to get to the top players.

“One day I was tasked with getting the Vice- chairman’s signature on a
document. While I had his attention, I pleaded my case for a chance in
the front office,” he explains.

It was a moment that was to revolutionise his career. The
vice-chairman wrote on Aly-Khan’s behalf to half a dozen key people,
one of whom – Bob Diamond, former CEO of British bank Barclays, at
this time with Credit Suisse First Boston – called him in to ask why
he deserved to be hired.

“I pointed at one of his team and asked: how much does this guy cost
you?” Aly-Khan recalls. “Diamond replied: more than a million dollars.
So I said: I am going to cost you four English pounds an hour – and if
I fail, you can sack me. What have you got to lose?”

Impressed by the 27-year-old Aly-Khan’s confidence, Diamond hired him,
kicking off his career on the trading floor. Six months later, in
1992, he was given a $1 million budget. In just one year, he made $15
million.

Over the following years Aly-Khan moved between banks, learning to
trade a range of instruments. However, his return to his homeland was
inevitable, and in 2006, aged 40, he quit his blossoming London
career. In the UK he had made a lot of money for himself, and plenty
more for his employers and investors, yet he was convinced that Africa
– and especially Kenya – would offer the next crop of low-hanging
fruit.

Although optimistic about the continent’s renaissance, Aly-Khan did
not envisage coming back to work fulltime. All he wanted to do was to
lie on the beach somewhere on the coast and trade his money, so he
settled in Mombasa, the city of his birth.

“I put some money in the NSE – in Kenya Airways, actually – and it
went up four times in six weeks,” he recalls. “So I told my wife: this
is interesting – lets go to Nairobi.”

It was en route to Nairobi, while pondering how he could convince
everyone that mattered to meet him, that he decided to write a book.

“I called a range of big names in finance and told them I was writing
a book. That’s how I met so many people so quickly,” he laughs. “ They
had to meet me because of course they didn’t know what I wanted to
write about.”

“I reach out. If I read an article I like I will write to that person.
Two years on, it may lead to an opportunity.” It’s a theme that recurs
in our conversation: Aly-Khan’s success is based around people – those
who influence him, and whom he can lead. A keen eye for talent, he
affirms, has been key in his success.

“I suck in good talent. I like to build teams. I look for people who
are not scared to work 18 hours a day. I pay my people well, but I
demand loyalty as well,” he adds.

In this respect he learned important lessons from Dr Paul Ekman,
author of What the Face Reveals, who gave him a toolkit to read faces
– a powerful skill when choosing candidates for his team, winnowing
out those whose intentions might be less positive.

Asked about the proudest moments in his career, Aly-Khan demurs: “I am
not proud. I am grateful for everything my life has given me. I am
most happy when I can carry a team to a place they never imagined
possible,” he says. “I have done it before, and I am seeking to do it
again here, now.”

Tenacity, as well as entrepreneurial spirit, is one of the things he
loves most about his country. Businesses can succeed in Kenya by
turning challenges into opportunities. Those that fail, he claims, do
so because they don’t get ‘glocalised’.

“Think global and local. You need to empower your own people – you
can’t implant an alien culture,” he declares. “I see lots of
businesses that are paranoid about people and employee power. Give
them a chance, I say: our people are very smart.”

And he knows some very smart people, being friends with businessmen
such as Safaricom chief exec Bob Collymore and KCB’s Martin
Oduor-Otieno, from whom he says he learns a lot.

“When I am bouncing an idea off one of them, I am getting the thoughts
of somebody who has a very valuable opinion,” says Aly-Khan.

“This is a world of 7 billion people. More important than writing them
a cheque is to enhance their ability to compete.” As he seeks to grow
his business across Africa, Aly-Khan is also looking to inspire other
Kenyans to become entrepreneurs. Through Mindspeak, a Nairobi-based
business club hosting free monthly forums, he has caught their
attention.

Mindspeak has built a near-religious following among university
students, aspiring entrepreneurs and even top business executives,
drawing hundreds of participants. Speakers have included nearly every
leading CEO in Kenya – including Bob Collymore, Keroche Industries
founder Tabitha Karanja and PR guru Gina Din Kariuki – as well as
executives of foreign companies investing in the region, such as Karim
Sadek, MD of Citadel Capital, and Tim Carstens of Australia’s Base
Resources.

Mindspeak has opened doors for Aly-Khan, giving him the opportunity to
get to know some of East Africa’s leading business personalities and
politicians, as well as providing content for his company’s internet
portal from local and foreign investors.

It’s not all facts and figures – again, Aly-Khan emphasises the
importance of personality. “Here in Africa we want stories of how
people made it to the top – both a business and a personal story. It’s
what you won’t learn at Harvard Business School, but it’s just as
valuable – you are learning about someone’s personality, and what the
difference between success and failure was for them.”

The forum’s game-changing moment came when Uganda’s President Yoweri
Museveni honoured an invitation to speak. “Sometimes you have to be
lucky: I simply wrote a letter, and he came,” Aly-Khan recalls. “Then
I  tweeted Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, who readily accepted.”

Today big names ask to speak at the forum. Mindspeak’s popularity has
been enhanced by Aly-Khan’s use of Twitter, offering wannabes the
chance to rub shoulders with business leaders.

“Social media has been a phenomenal tool in the success of Mindspeak,”
he claims. “Our people are very aspirational. They’ll set aside their
Saturday off if they know they are going to learn something.”

And it’s that inclusive attitude that is reflected in Aly-Khan’s
business. He recalls a moment that made a big impression on him, at
the mausoleum of the Sufi mystic Rumi in Konya, Turkey, where he read
the lines: ‘Ours is not a caravan of despair. Come, even if you have
broken your vow a thousand times. Come, yet again – come, come.’

Aly-Khan Satchu has opened the gates for those who want to learn about
investment in Kenya. And there’s no doubt that they will come.

Aly-Khan Satchu’s top tips for business success

Be focused – Keep your eyes on what you really want to achieve. The
world is like a cafe with loads of tables: one table is yours – find
it and sit there. If you try to eat from every table, you will waste
your time.
Know your business – If you know what you do and can out-compete
others, you will succeed.
Be optimistic – Have a ‘can do’ spirit and keep trying until you succeed.
Think long-term – Forge partnerships and invest in ideas that will
benefit you tomorrow.
Be a collaborator – 1+1 = 5 – that’s the new way. Monopolist thinking
is an ancient concept.
Be determined – The more determined you are, the more serendipitous
things become.
Start small – Start with what you have – don’t expect to be a
millionaire overnight.
Work hard – There’s no such thing as a free lunch. If you have not
done your homework, don’t even try.
Just do it – The opportunity we have in front of us today is a
multiple of what our parents had, and a multiple of what their parents
had.

Salman Rushdie Ours is the most cryptic of Centuries, it's true Nature
a Dark Secret. P 206 Imaginary Homelands
https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/statuses/205583858660417536

Pablo Neruda
http://j.mp/NqxZw1

Silent and starving, I prowl through the streets.

I hunger for your sleek laugh,
your hands the color of a savage harvest,
hunger for the pale stones of your fingernails,
I want to eat your skin like a whole almond.

I want to eat the sunbeam flaring in your lovely body,
the sovereign nose of your arrogant face,
I want to eat the fleeting shade of your lashes,

and I pace around hungry, sniffing the twilight,
hunting for you, for your hot heart,
Like a puma in the barrens of Quitratue."
-- Pablo Neruda

read more


China Uses Geology to Challenge Japan on Disputed Islands Bloomberg
Law & Politics


After making its first aerial incursion into Japanese-controlled
airspace near disputed islands, China compounded tensions with Japan
by bolstering its territorial claims at the United Nations.

On Dec. 14, two days before elections in Japan, China submitted to the
world body an 11-page report citing the continental shelf’s geology to
claim ownership of the islands in the East China Sea, which may be
surrounded by undersea oil and natural gas fields.

“Physiognomy and geological characteristics show that the continental
shelf in the East China Sea is the natural prolongation of China’s
land territory,” China said. On that basis, China extends its claim to
resource rights beyond the standard 200-nautical-mile exclusive
economic zone.

Since September, when relations between the two sides took a turn for
the worse, China has been depositing maps and coordinates with the UN
alongside its more visible provocations by sea and air.

Japan’s Foreign Ministry today said the Dec. 13 flight by a Chinese
marine surveillance propeller plane through Japanese- controlled
airspace around the uninhabited islands was a “further dangerous act”
that “escalates the situation.” While Japan dispatched eight F-15
fighter jets, the plane had already left the area and China responded
by calling the flight a normal activity in its own airspace.

“China’s intention to topple the status quo by use of coercion is
clear,” the ministry said in a statement e-mailed to reporters today.
“Does China want to see the Japan-China relations pass the point of no
return?”

Incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe “will be forced to put more ships
and planes around those islands,” Jun Okumura, a Tokyo-based adviser
for the Eurasia Group, said yesterday on Bloomberg Television. “That
is a recipe for possible unintended incidents that could flare up to a
major national security challenge.”

Chinese vessels have entered Japanese-controlled waters around the
islands 18 times since Sept. 11 and have sailed through immediately
adjacent “contiguous waters” almost daily, the foreign ministry said.
The ships have been warned off by the coast guard. Under Japanese law,
incursions by aircraft require a response by the military, raising
further potential risks.

Conclusions

From Monday's Wrap Up
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php?dt=MjAxMi0xMi0xNw%3D%3D

Shinzō Abe (安倍 晋三 Abe Shinzō?, [abe ɕinzoː] Shinzo Abe
https://twitter.com/i/#!/AbeShinzo/media/slideshow?url=pic.twitter.com%2F7Gv9T6FQ

Yasukuni Shrine
http://benbansal.me/?m=201210

Conclusions

He is going to take a more forward Position vis a vis @BarackObama 's
Pivot to Asia and China.

Mr Abe said the islands were Japan's "inherent territory" and it was
his party's objective was "to stop the challenge" from China. BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20747496

Geopolitical Jitters May Dictate Course of World Economy Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-18/geopolitical-jitters-may-dictate-course-of-world-economy.html

In the Middle East, the U.S. and Israel are on a potential collision
course with Iran over that country’s nuclear program - - a clash that
could roil oil markets throughout the year. The region also is racked
by fighting in Syria that threatens to escalate and spread the longer
it goes on. In Asia, a still- unresolved territorial dispute between
China and Japan already has undercut trade ties, hurt companies
including Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) and contributed to Japan falling
back into recession.

“The uncertainty that is out there with respect to Iran, as well as
other parts of the world, is something that is very, very real,” said
retired Navy Admiral Michael Mullen, a former chairman of the U.S.
Joint Chiefs of Staff. “The global economic impact of another war in
that part of the world would be pretty draconian.”

The S&P 500 has returned 16 percent including dividends this year,
compared with an average calendar-year return of 3.5 percent since
2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Volatility measures also suggest that financial markets aren’t
particularly fazed by the geopolitical and other dangers out there,
said Robert Engle, winner of the Nobel Prize for economics in 2003 and
professor of finance at New York University’s Stern School of
Business.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX,
has fallen about 30 percent this year to 16.34 (VIX) yesterday. That
compares with an average of 20.45 as of Dec. 14 since calculations
started in 1990.

The VIX also may increase if tensions in places such as the Middle
East worsen. “Volatility is very low, so could rise,” Koesterich,
whose company manages $3.7 trillion, told reporters in a presentation
from Tokyo on Dec. 12. “Geopolitics aren’t dead.”

For the past nine years, the U.S. and Israel have been warning they
wouldn’t tolerate further advances in Iran’s nuclear program, he said.
Still, nothing happened.

The two countries and European allies accuse the Iranians of pursuing
a nuclear-weapons capability. Iran says its program is for civilian
energy and medical research.

“It’s like the boy who cried wolf,” McNally said. Just as the wolf
eventually does show up in the fable, 2013 may be the year when the
U.S. and Israel finally make good on their threats as Iran closes in
on nuclear capability, he said.

Oil prices would spike by more than $20 a barrel if negotiations fail
and Iran’s nuclear installations are attacked, according to an October
survey by Rapidan of about two dozen oil traders and analysts.

Prices would rise an additional $25 if Iran retaliated by disrupting
shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, even with the release of oil
from national stockpiles held by the U.S. and other energy-consuming
nations, the survey found.

In Asia, the world’s second and third largest economies are at odds
over ownership of a group of islands in the East China Sea. The
standoff has soured the $340 billion trade relationship between the
two as Japanese car producers Toyota and Honda Motor Co. (7267) run
into a backlash from Chinese consumers. The number of Chinese visitors
to Japan also slumped 33 percent in October from the previous year.

Conclusions

The Black Swan Nanyuki Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/734ame

I think Volatility and ^VIX are essentially mispriced.

The most frequently quoted line in Presidential studies: “The power of
the presidency is the power to persuade.”
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/03/19/120319fa_fact_klein

The Unpersuaded Who listens to a President? by Ezra Klein

“What has been called the Reagan revolution is not completely, or even
mostly, due to Ronald Reagan. . . . It was the other way around.”
Edwards later wrote, “As one can imagine, I was a big hit with the
auditorium full of dedicated scholars of rhetoric.”

Edwards also quotes the political scientists Matthew Baum and Samuel
Kernell, who, in a more systematic examination of Roosevelt’s radio
addresses, found that they fostered “less than a 1 percentage point
increase” in his approval rating.

No President worked harder to persuade the public, Edwards says, than
Bill Clinton. Between his first inauguration, in January, 1993, and
his first midterm election, in November, 1994, he travelled to nearly
two hundred cities and towns, and made more than two hundred
appearances, to sell his Presidency, his legislative initiatives
(notably his health-care bill), and his party. But his poll numbers
fell, the health-care bill failed, and, in the next election, the
Republicans took control of the House of Representatives for the first
time in more than forty years. Yet Clinton never gave up on the idea
that all he needed was a few more speeches, or a slightly better
message. “I’ve got to . . . spend more time communicating with the
American people,” the President said in a 1994 interview. Edwards
notes, “It seems never to have occurred to him or his staff that his
basic strategy may have been inherently flawed.”

Obama’s 2012 address fit the pattern. His approval rating was
forty-six per cent on the day of the speech, and forty-seven per cent
a week later.

Presidents have plenty of pollsters on staff, and they give many
speeches in the course of a year. So how do they so systematically
overestimate the importance of those speeches? Edwards believes that
by the time Presidents reach the White House their careers have taught
them that they can persuade anyone of anything. “Think about how these
guys become President,” he says. “The normal way is talking for two
years. That’s all you do, and somehow you win. You must be a really
persuasive fellow.

Presidents win victories because ordinary Americans feel that their
lives are going well, and we call those Presidents great
communicators, because their public persona is the part of them we
know.

After three years in Washington, David Axelrod, who served as the
chief strategist for President Obama’s 2008 campaign, agrees. “Some
folks in politics believe this is all just a rhetorical game, but when
you’re governing it’s not,” he says. “People are viewing their lives
through the lens of their own experience, not waiting for you to
describe to them what they’re seeing or feeling.” Paul Begala, who
helped set the message in the Clinton White House, puts it more
piquantly: “The Titanic had an iceberg problem. It did not have a
communications problem. Right now, the President has a jobs problem.
If Obama had four-per-cent unemployment, he would be on Mt. Rushmore
already and people would look at Nancy Pelosi like Lady Gaga.”

That’s the real dilemma for the modern White House. Aggressive, public
leadership is typically ineffective and, during periods of divided
government, can actually make matters worse. But passivity is even
more dangerous. In that case, you’re not getting anything done and you
look like you’re not even trying.

One imagines that Bill Clinton would have liked a shout-out in
@BarackObama 's victory speech Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/bcms8f

Conclusions

I think Bill Clinton had simply stunning persuasive Powers and a lot
of that was do with his Childhood.

The Last Stand of Somalia's Jihad Foreign Policy
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/17/the_last_stand_of_somalias_jihad?wp_login_redirect=0

Interesting Piece which I will analyse overnight.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade


Euro 1.3248 euro extended gains against the dollar to an eighth day
and touched a seven- month high touched 1.3256, the most since May 1.
Dollar Index 79.27 touched a two-month low
Japan Yen 84.30  Bank of Japan will expand stimulus at a policy
meeting that starts today
Swiss Franc 0.9119
Pound 1.6261
Aussie 1.0515
India Rupee 54.767
South Korea Won 1072.84
Brazil Real 2.0889
Egypt Pound 6.1702
South Africa Rand 8.4508

The yen has lost 13 percent this year, the worst performer among the
10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar weakened 3.3 percent and the
euro has dropped 1 percent.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart 84.313 Last [headed to 100.00 in 2013]
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

djfxtrader: #Japan Nov Exports -4.1% On Year vs -5.2% Expected; Fifth
Straight Monthly Trade Deficit, Longest Run Since 1980 [Dow Jones]

Seventeen of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the BOJ to
ease monetary policy at tomorrow’s end of the two-day meeting.
Incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose Liberal Democratic Party
swept to victory in elections for the lower house of Japan’s
Parliament on Dec. 16, said yesterday that he requested BOJ Governor
Masaaki Shirakawa agree to an accord containing a 2 percent inflation
target.

Abe has called for unlimited easing by the BOJ to defeat deflation and
revive growth.

Conclusions

Buy 100.00 1 Touch Yen Strike Calls with a 1 Year Expiry.

Nikkei ^N225 versus the Dow Jones ^DJIA 1 month Chart Yahoo Finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^N225&t=1m&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=^DJI

The Nikkei is beginning to outperform on a weak Yen.
Nikkei is Year To Date +20.17%

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 1.3246 Last [My Objective is 1.4000]
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Europe’s shared currency advanced for eighth day against the dollar,
the longest series of gains since the eight trading sessions ended
April 28, 2011.

“We designed a parcours, a road, and it’s in the hands of the
governments” Super Mario: The Euro's Saviour
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-2971/super-mario-euros-saviour

What Draghi has done is remove the tail risk from the Euro Area. Last
year, Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said “As
protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad
outcomes,” he answered. The downside, the vortex risk has been back
stopped and thats a major achievement.

Parkour a made-up word, cousin to the French parcours, which means “route”
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/04/16/070416fa_fact_wilkinson

Parkour a made-up word, cousin to the French parcours, which means
“route”  is a quasi commando system of leaps, vaults, rolls, and
landings designed to help a person avoid or surmount whatever lies in
his path—a vocabulary, that is, to be employed in finding one’s way
among obstacles. Parkour goes over walls, not around them; it takes
the stair rail, not the stairs.

It includes jumps from the boom of one tower crane to that of another,
but parkour’s customary obstacles are walls, stairwells, fences,
railings, and gaps between roofs—it is an urban rather than a pastoral
pursuit. The movements are performed at a dead run. The more efficient
and fluid the path they define, and the more difficult and harrowing
the terrain they cross, the more elegant the performance is considered
by the discipline’s practitioners.

Euro Yen 3 Month Chart INO 111.723 Last Yen Falls to August 2011 Low Versus Euro
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=FOREX_EURJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The yen touched 111.71 per euro, the weakest since Aug. 30, 2011,
before trading at 111.65 as of 1:24 p.m. in Tokyo, 0.2 percent below
yesterday’s close.

Conclusions

This is My Trade of the Year 2012/2013.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.265 Last [2 Month Lows]
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 88.31 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.G13.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The more-actively traded February future slid 10 cents to $88.30. The
volume traded for all contracts was 48 percent below the average of
the past 100 days. Front-month futures rose 0.8 percent yesterday to
$87.93, the highest close since Dec. 4.

Conclusions

Settles around 90.00 at the Close of the Year.

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1675.45 Last
http://j.mp/ywc7Gi

Gold for immediate delivery gained as much as 0.3 percent to $1,676.85
an ounce and was at $1,675.50 at 1:45 p.m. in Singapore. The price
fell to $1,661.10 yesterday, the lowest since Aug. 31. Spot gold is up
7.2 percent this year, heading for a 12th annual gain.

Conclusions

I have been saying it trades heavy which confirms in my opinion that
There has been a Long Liquidation going on.

read more


Venezuela Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Bloomberg Year To Date +297.57% World's Best
Emerging Markets


Turkey Istanbul Stock Exchange National All Share Index Bloomberg Year
To Date +48.07%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XUTUM:IND

76,280.81
-164.18
-0.21%

77072 is the All Time High reached This Year and we remain not far off it.

Brazil Real 3 Month Chart INO 2.0909 Last
http://j.mp/qfDfnC

Frontier Markets

read more


President Jacob Zuma obliterated his opponent to retain his leadership of the party for another five years by a 75% majority
Africa


He was master and commander, and his increased support – up from 60%
in his first term – had handed him the ability to proceed with major
changes if he so wished.

Just the day before Zuma's party victory a survey found that his
national approval level is 52%, while the defeated Motlanthe's is at
70%.

Conclusions

I think that was the Zuma Apogee.

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 8.4496 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

I said when it crossed 8.65 it would move sharply as it has done.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg Year To Date Year To Date +21.55% All
Time Record High Close
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

38,879.70
+205.22
+0.53%

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg Year To Date: +46.8801% 2012 World's 3rd Best
http://j.mp/u7GYXZ

5,320.95
+32.46
+0.61%

Brothers’ Keepers by Peter Hessler December 24, 2012
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2012/12/24/121224taco_talk_hessler

But the past year has solved one mystery: we now know how the Muslim
Brotherhood behaves when it gets a taste of power.

In May, when Mohamed Morsi was campaigning for President as the
candidate from the group’s Freedom and Justice Party, he stood on a
stage outside Cairo University and shouted, “I swear before God and I
swear to you all, regardless of what is written in the constitution,
Sharia will be applied!” A day earlier, at another Morsi rally, a
speaker declared, “Yes, we do want everything! We want the parliament!
We want the President! We want the cabinet and the ministries! We want
everything to be Islamic! We want the drainage systems to be Islamic!”
But such messages were leavened by more moderate fare. Yasser Ali, a
Party spokesman, emphasized the desire “to form a truly national
coalition” with other political groups. “We feel that to be alone in
the sea is not good for Egypt,” he said, in March. “It would be a
domestic problem, and bad for the region.”

But the most revealing moment of the crisis occurred a week and a half
ago. With protesters camped outside the Presidential Palace, in Cairo,
Brotherhood members led a group of men who attacked peaceful
demonstrators and tore down their tents. The violence kicked off an
evening of escalating counterattacks; in the end, nine people died and
more than a thousand were injured, with both sides sustaining heavy
casualties. Some protesters, women among them, were detained and
tortured by civilian groups that included members of the Brotherhood.
Morsi, in a clumsy and dishonest speech to the nation, blamed it all
on “thugs” and a “fifth column” organized by the remnants of Hosni
Mubarak’s regime. But there was no question who had started the
fighting. It was the first clearly documented case of political
violence in more than fifty years of Muslim Brotherhood activity in
Egypt.

From the outside, it’s hard to distinguish between calculation and
incompetence. On Sunday evening, the government suddenly announced
major tax increases for a wide variety of goods, including gasoline,
electricity, cooking oil, cigarettes, and alcohol—hardly a savvy move
in a country with a ravaged economy and an ongoing political crisis.
Later that night, after the decree had inspired a mad rush on Cairo
liquor stores, Morsi cancelled it with a message posted on his
Facebook page at 2:13 A.M.

The Brotherhood has “a huge ability to withstand negotiations that
never reach anything,” Gaber Gad Nassar, one of the most prominent
members who quit the constituent assembly, said last week. Nassar is a
professor of constitutional law at Cairo University, and his analysis
could be seen as either deeply pessimistic or perversely optimistic,
depending on the tone of your inshallah. “They are extremely keen to
take over power and use it,” he said. “However, the biggest problem
they face is the lack of talent qualified to do that.” Critics have
always made this point—that the worst thing that could happen to the
Brotherhood might be a rise to power, because then their weaknesses
would be exposed. But this is small consolation in Cairo. The world is
full of bad regimes that survive just because they hurt others more
than they hurt themselves. ♦

Conclusions

I think in order to govern Egypt The Muslim Brotherhood need to reach
beyond their Base and President Morsi has to be a President of all
Egyptians and not just a Muslim Brotherhood President of Egypt. I
think his Political Calculus is therefore fatally flawed because he
appears to be of the View that he can be a MB President of Egypt.

Lights on the Nile. Photo Booth
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/photobooth/#slide_ss_1=15

The Nile River valley and delta comprise less than five per cent of
Egypt’s land area, but provide a home to roughly ninety-seven per cent
of the country’s population. Nothing makes the location of human
population clearer than the lights illuminating the valley and delta
at night. In this view from October 13, 2012, the city lights resemble
a giant calla lily, with a kink in its stem near the city of Luxor.

The North of the #African Continent #Egypt from the Sky Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/arepmz

The Great Pyramids at Giza. This July 25, 2012, photograph of Giza,
Egypt Photo Booth
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/photobooth/2012/12/the-view-from-space-20-stellar-photos-of-earth-in-2012.html#slide_ss_0=14

Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index Year To Date +32.35% 23 Month Highs
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Soap operas give Brazil the edge in Mozambique rush Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/18/uk-mozambique-brazil-culture-idUSLNE8BH00Y20121218

(Reuters) - Cackles, moans and gasps stream from the only police
station on Ilha de Moçambique, a small island off the Mozambican
coast, as five officers cluster around a small, battered television,
their eyes glued to the figures arguing on the faded screen.

It is time for "Balacobaco" (slang for "awesome"), the Brazilian
television soap opera that has taken the southern African nation by
storm, and the officers are so engrossed they barely notice their
chief of police behind them.

"Turn that off and get back to work," he barks.

With the former Portuguese colony thought to be home to some of the
world's biggest untapped coal reserves and enough natural gas to power
Western Europe for more than a decade, the pickings are rich.

"Mozambique is a natural partner. We speak the same language, have the
same origins," said Miguel Peres, the local chief executive of
construction firm Odebrecht, which has been in Mozambique since 2006.

"The Portuguese colonized both countries, so we identify with their
problems, the same problems we have in Brazil. So we feel comfortable
doing business here and we see lots of opportunities."

Mirroring the primacy of "Balacobaco", which regularly attracts twice
as many viewers as nightly news bulletins on state television,
Brazilian mining giant Vale lays claim to being Mozambique's biggest
foreign investor.

It has already spent $1.9 billion developing the Moatize coal mine in
the northern province of Tete, and has plans to spend another $6.4
billion upgrading a 900-km (600-mile) rail line linking Moatize to the
coast.

Not that the Brazilians have the run of the place.

Even though the United States - along with apartheid South Africa -
supported Renamo rebels against the communist-backed Frelimo party now
in government, U.S. firms face few consequences nowadays and U.S.
energy firm Anadarko rivals Vale in the sums it has poured into
off-shore gas exploration.

Situated on the Indian Ocean, Mozambique is also well-placed to
service Asia's energy-hungry, fast-growing economies, most notably
China, and the attention foisted on Mozambique mirrors the new
'Scramble for Africa' playing out across the continent.

Chinese companies have recently renovated the domestic terminal at
Maputo's airport and are building a ring-road for the bustling
capital, construction work that has helped attract tens of thousands
of Chinese nationals to Mozambique.

A Confucius Centre offering Chinese language classes subsidised by
Beijing opened in Maputo in October, with a Mozambican choir singing
the Chinese national anthem in fluent Mandarin.

So many Mozambicans have flocked to the institute's $30-a-month
courses in its first month the centre has had to double the number of
classes.

"More people want to learn Chinese. They think it is the language of
the future," institute director Xing Xianhong told Reuters.

Former Brazilian President Lula da Silva emphasized Brazil and
Mozambique's shared struggles with Portuguese colonialism when he
spoke of Brazil's "sacred" relationship with Africa at a conference in
Maputo last month.

"We look to Africa as a partner, not with pity," he said, urging
greater ties between the world's emerging economies. "The Chinese may
be here, but they don't have a third of our charm."

04-JUN-2012 Maputo, Boom Town
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/040NSX0406.pdf

GREETINGS from the Serena Polana, Maputo. I can confirm that Maputo is
the land of wonderful and flavoursome tiger prawns. The Architecture
is also deliciously retro. By the way, the Polana was built in 1922
and the flavour is fabulously Riviera and very swanky. It is less than
4 hours by plane from Nairobi and surely set to be the most of in
things and places to visit. Of course, Mozambique has popped large
onto the global radar because of gas reserves that have been
discovered offshore and in the deep sea.

I have said before, that I believe the eastern seaboard of Africa is
clearly the last great energy prize in the c21st and I believe this
lake of hydrocarbons stretches from Mozambique up through Tanzania,
Kenya and Somalia. We remain in the early stage of this discovery
process but Mozambique is further along the curve. Some estimate that
Mozambique has gas which is equivalent to 2m barrels of crude oil per
day for 50 Years. 2m barrels of crude is worth $166m (Sh14billion)
[per day]. This excitement around gas in Mozambique has found
expression in a bidding war for Cove Energy. Cove Energy has an 8.5
per cent stake in Mozambique’s Rovuma offshore gas basin.

Returning to Mozambique, Its worth noting that it is not only about
gas. Mozambique has also got coal. The Brazilian Company Vale started
producing coal at its Moatize mine last year and has approved a $6
billion expansion of the project to boost output to 22 million tonnes
per year from the 11 million tonnes it expects to mine initially. Then
there is also the Kenmare mineral sands project at the Moma Mine,
located on the coast of Mozambique. The Moma Mine contains reserves of
heavy minerals which include the economic titanium minerals ilmenite
and rutile used as feedstocks to produce titanium dioxide pigment, as
well as the relatively high-value zirconium silicate mineral, zircon.
Rutile, Ilmenite and Zircon are the exact same minerals that Base
Resources are seeking to mine in Kwale. Mozambique is well worth your
attention. It has mine.

Chinese Rules Construction #Maputo Airport #Mozambique Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9t4vb5

Pemba #Mozambique from the Air #Africa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9t4u1g

Leaving Inhaca Island Life #Mozambique Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9sd03k

Inhaca Island #Mozambique #Africa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9sadch

The Cathedral Praca de Independencia #Maputo #Africa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9scht4

read more


I was forced to sign deal, says Uhuru Nation
Kenyan Economy


Mr Kenyatta of The Alliance Party conceded that there was an agreement
which he presented it to his party’s delegates for approval. It was
rejected
Mr Kenyatta’s TNA and Eldoret North MP William Ruto’s United
Republican Party have agreed to stage a rally on Saturday at Tononoka
Grounds in Mombasa to name their preferred presidential candidate,
which in the Mudavadi camps is being seen an indication of their
determination to dump him
Mr Kenyatta on Tuesday claimed that he was forced to sign the
agreement with Mr Mudavadi after being blackmailed by “dark forces”
whose identities he did not reveal

Conclusions

Oh My!

My Observation is this anywhere Else in the World admitting You signed
an Agreement via Coercion from Dark Forces would be terminal
politically.
Here Most Folks in Uhuru's Base think it was a well laid Political Trap.

@jwanjeri Julia Wanjeri Take a look at Pentagon 2007. Now take a look
at Jubilee 2013
https://twitter.com/jwanjeri/status/281056735790264320/photo/1

Family Bank in ownership change Nation
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Family-Bank-in-ownership-change/-/1006/1647066/-/63j4lkz/-/index.html

Family Bank’s top ownership has changed following the exit of private
equity firm Africinvest Consortium and the entry of the Kenya Tea
Development Agency (KTDA) and LAP Trust.

KTDA, the country’s largest grower and marketer of tea leaves, and LAP
Trust — a pension fund for municipal workers — will acquire 15 per
cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in Family Bank, equivalent to
52.7 million shares valued at about Sh1.6 billion.

“We have made a decent earning out of our investment in the bank and,
as a private equity firm,” said Skander Queslat of Africinvest, who,
however, declined to disclose the actual gains from their principal
investment in the bank.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.046
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +37.262% in 2012 and is 0.55% below its 17
month High from 26th November.
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg Year To Date +27.457% in 2012.
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.42 points to close at 93.80.
The All Share is +37.88% and 0.106% off a 17 month High reached on
26th November.
The Nairobi NSE20 rallied 38.36 points to close at 4124.06.
The NSE20 is +28.673% in 2012.
The Indices have seen a strong Bull Move in December and look all set
to close the Year out at Fresh 52 week Highs.
The Indices have been in a Bull Run all Year and once again are
looking through the Political Noise which took a surreal Turn
yesterday.
BAT and ScanGroup set further Fresh All Time Closing Highs.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Sasini Tea and Coffee managed to rally 3.539% to close at 11.70 and
traded 124,700 shares. The Share was then halted from Trading as The
Full Year Results were posted Mid Session. Sasini Tea and Coffee
reported a FY Profit After Tax loss of 67.793m versus a FY PAT of
391.223m last time. The Company cited a Biological Revaluation Swing,
Lower Coffee Prices and Drought Conditions in the First 3 months of
2012 as the Reasons for the Swing. Like all the Agricultural Companies
the share Price is trading at a Material Discount to the Net Asset
Value and Management at all these Agricultural Companies [because this
is an endemic and generic problem] need to set out a very clear Road
Map that narrows these egregious Discounts. Its not Rocket Science.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom

shares volume 13,165,100
total turnover  66,436,796
avg price       5.05
high price      5.10
low price       5.00
last price      5.00

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 3rd at the Exchange and closed unchanged at 5.05 and
traded 13.165m shares worth 66.436m. Safaricom is +78.644% in 2012 and
sits 2.884% below its 28 Month Closing High of 5.20 from the 26th of
Last month.

ScanGroup rallied 2.92% to close at 70.50 which is a Fresh All Time
Closing High. Scangroup has set a Sequence of All Time Highs this
week. ScanGroup is +71.566% on a Total Return Basis.  ScanGroup trades
on a 27.647 Trailing PE [which is a Premium to the Market] and
reported an +8.5706% H1 PAT Acceleration. Scangroup is surfing a
Rising Tide across SSA and is the Preferred WPP Vehicle for the
Continent. It is the only Advertising and listed Pure Play and with
WPP continuing to increase its shareholding, Supply is thin and
Investors are paying up self evidently.

ScanGroup share Price data and Earnings Releases here +71.566% Total
Return Basis in 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTE%3D

Nation Media was the 2nd most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange. Nation eased 1.36% to close at 217.00 and traded 324,400
shares worth 70.396m. Nation Media is +61.428% on a Total Return Basis
in 2012 but has corrected 9.5833% since closing at a 53 month high on
the 26th of November, last month. Nation Media trades on a Trailing PE
of 17.0866 and accelerated H1 2012 PAT +25.253%.

Nation Media Share Price data and Earnings Releases here +61.428% 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTA%3D

Uchumi eased 0.77% to close at 19.30 and traded 881,100 shares worth
17.036m. Uchumi is +150.64% in 2012 and 3.015% below its 6+ Year
Closing High of 19.90 from October 16th and November 5th this Year.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank traded 4th at the Exchange and firmed 0.86% to
close at 29.25 and traded 1.822n shares worth 53.645m. Kenya
Commercial Bank is +84.695% in 2012, sits 3.305% below its 53 Month
Closing High achieved 14th through 20th November and is 6.189% off an
All Time High. Kenya Commercial Bank corrected 9.917% November 20th
through Dec 10th [just inside 10% which maintains the Bull Pattern on
a Chart Basis] before rallying 7.339% Dec 10th through todays close. I
expect Fresh All Time Highs in 2013.

Kenya Commercial Bank share price data and Earnings Releases here +84.695% 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D

Barclays Bank ticked 1.0204% higher to close at 14.85 and traded 339,100 shares.
Diamond Trust ticked 2.727% higher to close at 113.00 and traded 17,300 shares.
Standard Chartered closed unchanged at 236.00 and traded 7,800 shares.
COOP Bank closed unchanged at 12.00 and traded 415,400 shares.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 23.50 and traded 153,800 shares.

NIC Bank firmed 1.324% to close at 38.25 and traded 71,000 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange and
ticked 0.38% lower and off a Record Closing High to close at 259.00.
EABL traded 530,300 shares worth 137.709m. Incredibly EABL traded
shares at an Intra Day Low of 235.00 -9.62% but that was an Odd Lot.
EABL is +55.523% in 2012 and the Intra Day low Print was probably an
attempted 'Head Fake.' EABL announced a 4.2b shilling Plant Expansion
at the beginning of the week and that speaks to an Offensive Game in a
high Growth Market. Devlin Hainsworth should be given the last word
and has characterised this as a 'Golden Era.'

BAT rallied 3.16875% to close at 489.00 a Fresh All Time Closing High.
BAT traded 55,900 shares worth 27.389m. BAT is +111.1788% in 2012 and
the 2nd best performing Counter in 2012 after Uchumi. BAT trades on a
Trailing PE 15.784 and accelerated H1 PAT +20.600%.

BAT share Price data and Earnings Releases here +111.1788% 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mjk%3D

KenGen rallied 4.55% to close at 9.20 and traded 793,300 shares.
KenGen overcorrected when it recently went ex Dividend and is taking
back that Over Correction now.
Kenya Power firmed 0.58% to close at 17.15 and traded 987,300 shares
worth 16.966m.

KenolKobil rallied 2.16% to close at 14.30 and traded 114,800 shares.
The Price has been firming since the Sunday Times carried the Report
that Trafigura was seeking to float Puma Energy [who have targetted
KenolKobil in a Take Over]. The CEO made bullish comments about
Takeover Targets and Investors have extrapolated that was referencing
KenolKobil.

Athi River Mining firmed 2.3% to close at 222.00 and traded 63,900 shares.
Bamburi Cement closed unchanged at 189.00 and traded 18,200 shares.
Bamburi Cement saw some outsize action this week.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
Login / Register
 

 
 
Forgot your password? Register Now
 
 
December 2012
 
 
 
 
 
COMMENTS

 
In order to post a comment we require you to be logged in after registering with us and create an online profile.