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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 10th of January 2013
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

On The Road The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX0701.pdf

The Nairobi All Share has been in a Bull Market since the 7th of May
2012 and has been resolutely bullish since then. Foreign Investors
have been on the Buy Side since the Start of 2012 and Local Investors
on the Sell Side.

And Every Local Investor I meet no longer says;

'I will buy the Pull Back. It always falls before the Election.'

They are now asking rather forlornly

'Its going to correct isn't it?'

I believe we are in a One Off Adjustment in favour of Africa.

I said to Thomas J Jordan Chairman Swiss National Bank Buy some
#Africa with those Reserves #NZZCMF  128 days ago
http://www.twitpic.com/aqnbrq

#Mombasa Island from English Point Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/bqcwha

The Year 2012 in Review
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX3112.pdf

Macro Thoughts



Home Thoughts

“Its lawns were one sheet of trefoil; its pomegranate trees yellowed
to autumn splendour, their fruit full red.”
http://www.economist.com/node/17723207

read more


President Hamid Karzai is due at the White House in the coming days. Patrick Seale
Law & Politics


Is the United States pulling out after Dec. 31, 2014, or not? Afghan
President Hamid Karzai is due at the White House in the coming days.
He will want to know what future protection he can expect from the
United States. He will certainly have in mind the fate of President
Najibullah, butchered by the Taleban when they captured Kabul in 1996
after the Russians departed.

Hamid Karzai
http://www.acus.org/files/images/hamid-karzai-microphones.preview.jpg

must know that the Omar is lurking in the shadows just waiting for his Moment

Mullah Omar
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01579/Mullah-Mohammed-Om_1579090c.jpg

“       I am considering two promises. One is the promise of Allah, the
other of Bush. The promise of Allah is that my land is vast...the
promise of Bush is that there is no place on Earth where I can hide
that he won't find me. We shall see which promise is fulfilled.''

—Mullah Omar, 2001

Dr. Najibullah and His Brother
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MnIubkzWvpQ/UIFO1wyYiJI/AAAAAAAATl0/LHE6uzQtFuA/s1600/Najeebullah+Execution+by+the+Taliban.jpg

The Baburnama, the autobiography Zahiruddin Mohammad Babur (1483
-1530), is one of the true marvels of the medieval world Amitav Ghosh
http://www.littlemag.com/amitav.htm

But in the end, stoically, he resigns himself to the difficult
business of finding a realm: "When one has pretensions to rule and a
desire for conquest, one cannot sit back and just watch if events
don’t go right once or twice."

Even while fleeing from the Uzbeks, he found time to carve a verse on
a rock beside a spring.

"Like us many have spoken over this spring, but they were gone in the
twinkling of an eye,/We conquered the world with bravery and might,
but we did not take it with us to the grave."

But he may have come closer to the truth in his first poem, a ghazal,
written at the age of 18: "Other than my own soul I never found a
faithful friend/ Other than my own heart I never found a confidant."

 In 1530 Humayun, Babur’s beloved eldest son and heir-apparent, was
stricken by a fever. He was brought immediately to Babur’s court at
Agra, but despite the best efforts of the royal physicians, his
condition

steadily worsened. Driven to despair, Babur consulted a man of
religion who told him that the remedy "was to give in alms the most
valuable thing one had and to seek cure from God."

Babur is said to have replied thus: "I am the most valuable thing that
Humayun possesses; than me he has no better thing; I shall make myself
a sacrifice for him. May God the Creator accept it."

Greatly distressed, Babur’s courtiers and friends tried to explain
that the sage had meant that he should give away money, or gold or a
piece of property: Humayun possessed a priceless diamond, they said,
which could be sold and the proceeds given to the poor...

Babur would not hear of it. "What value has worldly wealth?" Babur is
quoted to have said. "And how can it be a redemption for Humayun? I
myself shall be his sacrifice."

He walked three times around Humayun’s bed, praying: "O God! If a life
may be exchanged for a life, I who am Babur, I give my life and my
being for a Humayun." A few minutes later, he cried: "We have borne it
away, we have borne it away."

And sure enough, from that moment Babur began to sicken, while Humayun
grew slowly well. Babur died near Agra on December 21, 1530. He left
orders for his body to be buried in Kabul.

Humayun's Tomb Delhi
http://www.ejiusa.com/india_city_details/Humayuns%27tomb.jpg

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade


Euro 1.3048
Dollar Index 80.63
Japan Yen 88.10
Swiss Franc 0.9263
Pound 1.6014 The pound dropped below $1.60 for the first time in five weeks
Aussie 1.0548
India Rupee 54.658
South Korea Won 1060.94
Brazil Real 2.0412
Egypt Pound 6.5123
South Africa Rand 8.6070

djfxtrader: #China Dec Exports +14.1% On Year vs +4.6% Expected; Dec
Imports +6.0% On Year vs +3.3% Expected; Trade Surplus $31.6B vs
$19.6B Expected -> Thats much stronger than expected

Australia Dollar 5 Day Chart INO 1.05487 [Rallies on China Data]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=FOREX_AUDUSD

Dollar Yen 1 Year Chart INO 88.08
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Japan’s Abe Urges 2% Inflation as Shirakawa Attends Meeting Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/boj-to-work-more-closely-with-abe-at-regular-policy-meetings.html

The Bank of Japan (8301) should aim for 2 percent inflation, Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe said at the first meeting in four years of a panel
that brings together government and central bank officials.

The government and the BOJ should strengthen cooperation to achieve
the price goal, Abe said yesterday in Tokyo during a section of the
Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy meeting that was open to the
press. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters after the meeting
that it was “meaningful” and that the bank is in close cooperation
with the government.

The yen has weakened around 9 percent against the dollar since Nov. 14
as Abe’s calls for the BOJ to double its 1 percent inflation goal fuel
speculation that the central bank will yield to pressure for more
easing. The BOJ will introduce a 2 percent inflation target at its
next board meeting on Jan. 21-22, the Asahi newspaper reported today.

“Two percent inflation would be difficult to achieve unless the yen
weakens massively.”

Conclusions

I have said I expect a 100.00 Print Dollar Yen in 2013 for a while now.

Japan already has public debt of some 230% of GDP, there is a certain
"Death or Glory" quality about @AbeShinzo 's policies via Asia Times
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php?dt=MjAxMy0wMS03

Abe is thus an economic Lord Cardigan, the Light Brigade's commander,
plunging Japan's economy into the Valley of Death. As with the charge,
there will be an initial period in which the momentum of the Light
Brigade will seem to carry all before it, but eventually the Russian
guns of insolvency will cause destruction beyond belief. Since Japan
remains the world's third-largest economy, its Gotterdammerung is
likely to drive the global cycle. Initially, as money pours out of the
Bank of Japan (I don't rate highly its chances of resisting a new
prime minister with a two-thirds majority, pursuing policies that are
in vogue worldwide) Japanese markets will soar, even as the yen
weakens.

Masaaki Shirakawa governor of the Bank of Japan Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-09/boj-to-work-more-closely-with-abe-at-regular-policy-meetings.html

Euro versus the Dollar 1 Year Chart INO 1.3048 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Index 1 Year Chart INO 80.625 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

This Index points higher because of predicted and predictable very weak Yen.

Dimon Says JPMorgan Executives ‘Acted Like Children’ on Loss Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/dimon-says-some-jpmorgan-leaders-acted-like-children-on-loss.html

“Instead of helping, they were running around with their head chopped
off, ‘what does this mean for me personally, how’s my reputation?’”
Dimon said yesterday at a conference in San Francisco hosted by the
New York-based bank. Some people “felt they could take advantage of it
personally, they were willing to hurt the company by maneuvering.”

“We had 100 people who worked every day for 90 days to help the real
problem -- the risk -- not the ongoing regulatory review, but the real
problem, to get the risk down so we didn’t have ongoing exposure,”
Dimon said. While some people “acted terribly,” the bank now has the
“best management team I’ve ever had in my entire life,” he said.

“You learn the good and the bad about people and that’s invaluable to
find out who those people are. Invaluable,” he said.

“They are going to attack me, they are going to attack the company.
I’m off my high-holy horse,” Dimon, 56, said he told his public
relations and investor relations staff. “It is what it is, don’t worry
about it.”

Nate Tyler Central California, October, 2012. Photograph by Chris
Burkard Photo Booth
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/photobooth/#slide_ss_0=9

This past fall, Jonathan Feldman formed Massif Management, a photo
agency that represents a group of young surfers who are also
photographers. “They’re ‘surf photographers’ insofar as they shoot
waves and wave riders, but they’re also working across any number of
different genres, from art and fashion to travel,” Feldman told me.
“Still, for all these guys, surfing is an abiding passion, and I think
you feel the presence of the ocean in their photos, even when they’re
working away from the water. They make salty pictures.”

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 93.43 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.G13.E&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

West Texas Intermediate futures increased as much as 0.4 percent after
China’s customs administration reported exports jumped by 14 percent
in December from a year earlier, exceeding the 5 percent median
forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

“This will bode well for oil demand from the manufacturing sector” in
China, said Gordon Kwan

Conclusions

China Data lifting Crude Prices.

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1656.39 [Not factoring in Helicopter @AbeShinzo for now]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Gold has retreated 1.1 percent since the beginning of the year

read more


China’s Stocks Advance Most This Year as Exports Beat Estimates Bloomberg
Emerging Markets


The Shanghai Composite has surged 17 percent from an almost four-year
low on Dec. 3, while the CSI 300 has climbed 20 percent, signaling a
bull market, on signs economic growth is picking up. The Shanghai
gauge trades at 12.6 times reported earnings, approaching the highest
level since June, according to daily data compiled by Bloomberg since
2006.

Conclusions

Chinese Data was much stronger than Anyone expected.

Venezuelan bonds fell for a fourth day as the country edges toward
what Barclays Plc called a “constitutional cliff.” Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/hugo-chavez-won-t-be-sworn-in-jan-10-for-new-venezuela-term.html

The yield on the country’s benchmark 9.25 percent bond due 2027 has
tumbled 4.38 cents since Dec. 3 to 99.76 cents on the dollar at 2:13
p.m. in Caracas, cutting into a 46 percent rally over the past year
for Venezuelan debt as investors boosted bets the Chavez’s battle with
cancer will lead to a leadership change.

Frontier Markets

read more


“There has been no request or discussion on a possible role for NATO in Mali,” said a NATO official
Africa


Mali In 2011 almost 200,000 tourists visited the country, each
spending at least $100 (£62) a day; barely 10,000 visited last year.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/09/tourism-mali-fades-away-instability

Timbuktu
http://www.stormchaser.ca/Mali/Timbuktu/Timbuktu_02.JPG

Ivory Coast signs $500 mln loan deal with China's Exim Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/09/ivorycoast-china-power-idUSL5E9C9CPS20130109

"This is a $500 million loan over 20 years with an (interest) rate of
2 percent and a grace period of nine years," Zhang Guoqing, China's
ambassador in Ivory Coast, said at the signing of the accord.

"This is the largest loan agreed with Ivory Coast in over 30 years," he said.

Construction by Chinese state-owned hydropower engineering firm
Sinohydro is due to begin in February and last 56 months. Upon
completion, the dam will be the country's largest hydropower station.

Conclusions

China's Dollar Diplomacy in Africa.

Nairobi, Kenya - June 18, 2012 CCTV "I think they finally woke up. I
don't know when the penny dropped'' Aly-Khan Satchu
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php?dt=MjAxMi0wNi0yMA%3D%3D

Nairobi, Kenya - June 18, 2012
1. Wide of cityscape
2. Mid of city
3. Mid of building
4. Various of vehicles driving on street
5. SOUNDBITE (English) Aly-Khan Satchu, investment adviser of Rich
Management, Nairobi Stocks Exchange authorized data vendor:
"I think they finally woke up. I don't know when the penny dropped,
but I think dropped in the last 18 months."
6. Wide of vessels on sea
7. Wide of oil refinery plant
8. Mid of oil workers
9. Close of oil refinery equipment
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Aly-Khan Satchu, investment adviser of Rich
Management, Nairobi Stocks Exchange Authorized Data Vendor:
"For a long time, you know, we had too much supply for the global
market but there wasn't much demand, then China came along and
increased the demand and it was that increasing demand that has lifted
our economy in the last 10 years."
11. Various of Chinese workers in Africa
12. Mid of board showing increase of China-Africa trade volume from 1992 to 2011
13. SOUNDBITE (English) Aly-Khan Satchu, investment adviser of Rich
Management, Nairobi Stocks Exchange Authorized Data Vendor:
"And now everybody in Washington is going hang on a second, you know:
How do we reverse this process? How do we repel the Chinese? And
essentially I think this document, which is a very interesting one,
but I think it's a veil for the awareness by the US and its allies."
14. Wide of street
15. Mid of people and vehicles on street
16. Mid of people walking on street
17. Mid of people walking on street
18. SOUNDBITE (English) Aly-Khan Satchu, investment adviser of Rich
Management, Nairobi Stocks Exchange Authorized Data Vendor:
"It's a very complex collision and I think if it's a game of money,
then China wins because China is the banker. But if it's a game of
using hard power, America is going to win it in the short term."
19. Wide of vehicles on street
20. Wide of block

"It's a very complex collision and I think if it's a game of money,
then China wins because China is the banker," said Satchu. "But if
it's a game of using hard power, America is going to win it in the
short term."

Dollar versus Rand 5 Day Chart INO 8.595 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=FOREX_USDZAR

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.5134 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg Year To Date +7.40%
http://j.mp/u7GYXZ

read more


KENYA: Businesses close in fear of electoral violence IRIN
Kenyan Economy


With less than two months left until Kenya’s general election, some
business owners in the western city of Kisumu are suspending
operations out of fear violence could erupt, as it did after the 2007
polls. The move leaves thousands without jobs.

“Before Christmas, our company’s director told us to wind up our
duties. We thought it was the usual routine where we normally close
for the festive season. But this time, things were different since we
were paid all our cumulative dues… The company was closing down,”
George Onyango, an employee at a Kisumu iron and steel company, told
IRIN.

Some 2,000 employees could lose their jobs from the company if the
closure is permanent. The company’s management said they would resume
operations after the elections in 2013, but only if the situation
remained peaceful.

Fahad Abdullah, who runs a building and construction company, saw his
property looted and destroyed after the 2007 election. Fearing a
repeat of the violence, he has decided to close his business, leaving
1,200 employees without jobs.

“In the previous elections, we witnessed growing hatred for the Asian
communities. I don’t know why. Perhaps we are seen as intruders here,
and we have no choice but to flee in time. My family and friends
operate a chain of businesses in this town, and already seven of them
[employing about 2,300 people] have closed down,” he said.

Security officials told IRIN the emergence of criminal gangs in 2012 -
allegedly sponsored by politicians - have worsened these fears.

“The gangs are sponsored by politicians and use Mungiki [a criminal
gang found mainly in Central Province and Nairobi] style tactics of
[extortion] and intimidation to create fear,” provincial police boss
Joseph Ole Tito said.

The city was one of the epicentres of post-election violence five
years ago, which left some 1,500 people around the country dead and
500,000 more displaced. Kisumu is home to the country’s prime
minister, Raila Odinga, a presidential candidate in both the 2007 and
the upcoming elections.

“We are making good economic progress as a country, but the fear of
electoral violence and the possibility it might reoccur are real, and
it erodes all the economic gains we have made as a country,” Paul
Akumu, an economist at Masinde Muliro University, said

Conclusions

Not a Positive Signal. Last Time in 2007/2008, I met a Businessman in
Kisumu who told me he suffered enormous Losses and that the Losses
were incurred when The Prime Minister's Supporters believed They were
winning and went on a Celebratory Rampage. He Told me that therefore
The Result made no Difference. Evidently, the biggest Risk is posed by
a very close run thing which one Side or the Other refuses to accept.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
http://j.mp/5jDOot

“Foreign Investors have been lifting supply off local investors
relentlessly'' Business Daily
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Blue-chip-stocks-hit-new-high-as-demand-rises/-/539552/1661978/-/pqu9a4z/-/index.html

“Foreign Investors have been lifting supply off local investors
relentlessly. I think these investors have shined a light on Africa
and compared to their home markets have found plenty to get excited
about,” said Mr Satchu.

19-SEP-2011 :: The Shilling, NSE could be turning for the better
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX1909.pdf

The Nairobi Stock Exchange [NSE20 Index] had fallen 24.255% through
6th September but has since rallied 4.4677% .

KCB’s Profit After Tax expanded +41.573402% 1st Half. KCB has right
sized its personnel, its everywhere in the region. The region will
take off and KCB will ride in the Slipstream.

Safaricom has been buffeted from all sides. Sunil Mittal’s Bharti
Airtel’s price war. I accept, Safaricom has a high correlation to the
‘Kadogo’ Economy and its been very tough but on balance, I think all
the bad news is baked into the price and none of the Good.

Conclusions

When I wrote that

The Nairobi All Share was at 71.40 -> Its +42.0168% since then
Safaricom was at 3.20 -> Its +81.25% excluding Dividends
@KCBGroup was at 18.30 -> Its +70.765% excluding Dividends

2-MAR-2012 :: Nairobi NSE20 14 Session Winning Streak and Behavioural Finance
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/044NSX1203.pdf

THE Nairobi NSE 20 Index has posted a 14 consecutive session winning
streak through Friday worth 245.51 points and 7.808%. The NSE 20 is
now +6.18 per cent in 2012. The results season is in full swing and
the reaction higher confirms that investors had become too pessimistic
about the economy’s and corporate Kenya’s prospects. The results have
for the most part exceeded expectations and hence we have seen a
number of price spikes. Fundamental analysis is clearly the key
navigation tool, its like a compass to a sailor. A storm might be
blowing all around you but if you have a working compass, you can
chart a course. Without a compass, you are essentially clueless. The
basic tool is the P/E ratio. Its very simple. If a business earns a
shilling a year and you are paying 5 Shillings a share, the P/E Ratio
is 5. Of course, then you have to look at the earnings. Are they
sustainable or is the trajectory higher or is it lower?

Last week the Chief Executive of the Nairobi Securities Exchange Peter
Mwangi said the following to @KatrinaManson of the Financial Times;

“We have companies with dividend yields in excess of 10 per cent, with
PE ratios of less than 3, some it’s 2-and-something: I mean it’s a
steal, it’s an absolute steal. Good investors don’t invest on the
basis of what has happened in the past, that’s not where the return
is, the return is in the future.”

Are you buying perfume or are you buying groceries? If you’re buying
something fancy – some designer shades and some Gucci handbag,
diamonds – then fine, the more you pay for it, the better you feel.
But you should shop for equi- ties the way you shop for groceries -
these shares are potatoes, man, these are cabbages - if they are
cheaper they are better”.

The CEO has a wonderfully fruity turn of phrase but he is making an
important point.

He is touching on what is now termed behavioral finance. You see
investors are not rational agents. Once upon a time, the stock market
was the ‘in’ thing. I met a man who had sold his livestock, upped
sticks and come with a small stake to Nairobi. He had ridden the
market rally. Others did not want to get left behind. The next time it
rains
in the afternoon in Nairobi, make yourself a cup of tea and watch how
everyone behaves. Watch carefully how the ‘thundering herd’ behaves.
We find comfort in group behaviour. The net result is we all get stuck
on the roads but its practically pavlovian.

I am not a sociologist but I have also noted Kenyans swing from
optimism to pessimism excessively. My father has an old grandfather
clock in Mombasa. The pendulum is broken now but if it was still alive
and mimicked us, that pendulum would be hitting the sides of its box
all the time. Do you recall how we were the most optimistic people
anywhere in the world, at the
time, when the NARC Government came into power. Then a few years
later, we had become the most depressed people anywhere in the world.

My point is that the Kenya pendulum has the highest high versus low
swing probably anywhere.

This wild and crazy swing impacts the Nairobi Securities Exchange big
time. It creates ‘fat tailed’ price distributions. When the market
peaked in 2007, we had become excessively optimistic.

Conversely, a 14 session winning streak is signalling that we are
emerging from a disequilibrium [or a dislocation] caused by excessive
pessimism.

16-APR-2012 ::  The Shilling, Securities Exchange and Bonds
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX1604-2.pdf

The Nairobi Securities Exchange has posted a return of more than 10
per cent so far in 2012. The NSE20 index is less than 2.5 per cent
away from a 12 month high. A push through the 52 week high will look
quite sexy on the charts. There have been some stunning returns to be
had. KCB has returned over 40 per cent, EABL 20 per cent, KenolKobil
has posted record closing highs last week, Scangroup reports this week
and is at an 11 month high. Uchumi rallied more than 100 per cent from
February 23 through last Thursday.

There is improving breadth and depth in this move. As I have said
previously, I think we have had a third of the gain that we are set to
receive this year. There remains plenty to play for.

My overall sense is that local fund managers have fled to the safety
of the bond market. If you look at the foreign investor component of
the shareholder register of many companies, you will see a big ratchet
higher in many instances.

The bottom line is foreigners have been upping their ante, locals
lowering theirs.

Now we all know.There are curve balls that could queer this whole
thing in a blink of an eye. If the new justice minister seeks to row
back from the ICC, then a pariah risk will have to be priced in and
this nascent rally will come apart at the seams.

The train is leaving the station. Are you waving at it or stepping on board?

16-JUL-2012 :: POLITICAL RISK IS NOW COOLING  DOWN, ECONOMY UPBEAT KENYA
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX1607.pdf

06-AUG-2012 :: Africa On A Roll In An Uncertain World
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX0608.pdf

in a world of uncertainty, where investors are just happy to get their
capital back intact, Africa is on a roll.

29-OCT-2012 ::EABL is Flagship brand at NSE
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/037NSX2910.pdf

It has closed this week at 239.99 and I am sure its about to sail
through 240.00 and post a new record high as early as next week.

12-NOV-2012 ::Scramble for Safaricom Shares
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/040NSX1211.pdf

The stock market had its first opportunity to react on Friday and
promptly rallied Safaricom 7.9 per cent higher to close at 4.80 and
this is a 22 month closing high and the last time the price was here
was in January 2011. Safaricom is +70.169 per cent this year and is
all set to cross Sh5.00.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +6.504% in 2013
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

The Nairobi All Share rallied 2.12 points to close at 101.03.
The Last Time the Nairobi All Share was above the 100.00 mark was on
26th January 2011.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +4.161% in 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Nairobi ^NSE20 Index rallied 57.29 points to close at 4305.03.
The last Time The ^NSE20 Index was above 4,300 was on the 14th Feb 2011.

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Central Bank cut the CBR by 150 Basis Points which exceeded
Expectations. By Cutting to single Digits, the New Rate is 9.5%, The
Central Bank is sending and signalling an important Message to the
Markets that Message being that Interest Rates have been normalised.
The Central Bank is also quite rightly concerned about sub Par GDP
Growth.
The Nairobi All Share edged 0.01 points lower today to close at 101.02
and snapped its 2013 Winning Streak.
The All Share remains +6.4937% in 2013 and at a 23 Month High.
The NSE20 firmed 14.70 points to close at 4319.73.
The NSE20 is +4.500% in 2013 and at a Fresh 23 Month High.
KCB +6.722% in 2013, BAT +6.9246%, ARM +23.218% and EABL +9.811% set
Fresh All Time Highs.
Safaricom after rallying 18.811% from the start of the Year through
yesterdays Intra day of 6.00 which is as parabolic as it gets
corrected 3.44% but remains solid and underpinned.
The Opening in 2013 was violent and Bullish and the Market points higher.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased 3.44% to close at 5.60 and traded a 5.55-5.80 range
and 6.69m shares worth 37.718m. Safaricom rallied 18.811% in 2013
through yesterdays Intra day High of 6.00 achieved yesterday before
Profit Takers sought to bag their Gains and took the share to 5.50
session Lows Therefore, Todays downdraft was expected but looks as if
it will be short lived. At The Finish Line There was Buy Side Demand
for 24.1m shares which was 360.27% more than the Volume transacted
today signalling strong Support at these Levels.

Kenya Airways bounced 1.339% to close at 11.35 and traded 61,700
shares. The Supply Side is very thin now.

Nation Media firmed 1.26% to close at 242.00 on light trading of 1,700
shares. Nation Media is +9.502% in 2013 and this is a 54 month Closing
High.

Uchumi firmed 0.26% to close at 19.10 and traded 1.915m shares worth
36.582m. Uchumi was the Top Performing share at the Securities
Exchange in 2012 returning just over 150% and sits 1.8492% below a 6+
Year High of 19.90 achieved in Q4 2012. I expect a Move towards 25.00.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank rallied 1.6% to close at 31.75 which is an All
Time Closing High. Kenya Commercial Bank was trading at 32.25 +3.2%
Session Highs at the Closing Bell and traded 1.527m shares worth
48.65m.

Kenya Commercial Bank share Price data and Earnings Releases here +6.722% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D

Equity Bank rallied 1.98% to close at 25.75 making that a 7.19% 2
Session Rally.
Standard Chartered firmed 0.42% to close at 242.00 and this is a Fresh
20 Month High. Standard Chartered was trading at 245.00 +1.66% at the
Closing Bell and There are not many shares available quite a long way
up the Score Card.
COOP Bank firmed 0.39% to close at 12.75 and traded 1.283m shares worth 16.364m.

City Trust retreated 2.26% to close at 390.00 and traded 102,100
shares. I and M Bank will be reversed into City Trust. City Trust has
a very lofty valuation on a PE Basis.

CIC Insurance rallied 5.8% to close at 3.65 and was trading 3.85
+11.59% at the Closing Bell. CIC Insurance announced before the
Opening Bell that they were in the Process of acquiring 417 Acres in
Isinya Kajiado for the Purpose of Development for 723m Kenya Shillings
and evidently Investors liked the sound of that.

CIC Insurance share Price data and Earnings here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NjE%3D

CIC Insurance Announcement re Purchase of 417 Acres in Kajiado
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/CIC%20Insurance%20Group%20proposed%20acquisition%20of%20property.pdf



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL firmed 0.34% to close at 291.00 and set a Further Fresh All Time
High. EABL traded 642,700 shares worth 187.062m making that a
cumulative total of 1.648m shares over 2 Sessions. EABL has rallied
9.811% since the Start of the Year and 20.247% over 2 Months.

EABL share Price data and Earnings Releases here +9.811% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzQ%3D

Athi River Mining firmed 0.9166% to a further Fresh All time Closing
High of 55.00. ARM was trading at Session Highs of 59.50 +9.17% at the
Closing Bell. ARM traded 356,500 shares worth 19.685m. ARM has rallied
23.218% since it was Split and the Beginning of the Year.
Bamburi Cement rallied 2.105% to close at 194.00 and traded 37,900 shares.

BAT traded 30,300 shares all at 525.00 +0.19% which is an All time
Closing High. BAT is +6.9246% in 2013.

BAT share Price data and Earnings here +6.9246% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mjk%3D

KenGen rallied 3.2775% to close at 9.45 and traded 1.028m shares and
was trading at 9.55 +4.37% session Highs at the Closing Bell.
KPLC firmed 0.6% to close at 16.80 and traded 317,400 shares.

KenolKobil firmed 0.74% to close at 13.70 and traded 708,100 shares
and as far as I am aware still remains in a Process with Trafigura
Energy with a view to a Potential Buy O

Mumias Sugar closed unchanged at 4.95 and traded 2.826m shares worth 14.166m.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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