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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 04th of February 2013
 
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Macro Thoughts

Macro Thoughts BUY THE EURO 21st September 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php?dt=MjAxMi0wOS0yMQ%3D%3D#B28478

Home Thoughts

I watched Richard Gere in Arbitrage over the WeekEnd
http://www.sabotagetimes.com/film/arbitrage-richard-geres-best-film-in-years/

Arbitrage: The practice of taking advantage of a price difference
between two or more markets: When used by academics, an arbitrage is a
transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic
or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in
simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit at zero cost

Arbitrage is a film all about risk and at its centre is a man who
seems to understand risk. Robert Miller (Richard Gere) is a successful
financier; he’s built his hedge fund into a billion-dollar powerhouse,
and he has a classy wife (Susan Sarandon), a beautiful home, a
pneumatic mistress (Laetitia Casta) and a successful daughter (Brit
Marling). Miller is a consummate risk manager and he seems to apply
the same principles to his personal life as he does to his
professional life; it’s all about maximising. He must have the most
successful daughter, the most perfect marriage, a stainless reputation
and an alpha-male image. But this Shangri-La is all glossy façades and
ugly little lies. Miller does whatever is necessary to maintain the
image of perfection, he is warm and flattering and persuasive, he is
always whatever he needs to be. But behind the scenes Robert Miller
has actually been taking greater and greater risks to maintain his
image, he has been teetering on the edge of having nothing at all for
months, maybe years. This makes Richard Gere a rather perfect choice
to play him. He’s genial and handsome, still wears that Pretty Woman
rich guy charm. So it takes longer than it might to realise that this
Robert Miller is not just a little bit wayward, or misguided, this
high-flying banker is a complete shark, as cold as they come.

Director Nicolas Jarecki shoots Manhattan beautifully; he lets the
hard, glossy surfaces of the Wall Street milieu gleam while the silky
exterior of Miller unravels in front of it. Tim Roth is superb as the
detective assigned to investigate the crash; he spends much of the
movie practically horizontal, draping himself on sofas and slumping in
cars as he turns the screws. The scenes between him and Gere are
especially tense. Roth exudes a finely nuanced intelligence which sees
straight through Miller’s glamorous image to the rotten core beneath,
but he never quite manages to mask his own gnawing cynicism.

There is no doubt that that Miller is guilty, indeed the scale of his
guilt is vaster than any of the other characters imagine, but it is
the balancing act Miller tries to maintain that drives Arbitrage
forward. It seems as though everything could crumble at any minute and
he might finally come clean to his wife, his daughter, his partners or
the police. But he also never ceases twisting and turning and trying
to negotiate his way out of things. There is a moment, in a superb
scene, when Miller attempts an audacious piece of deal-making just as
his life is on the point of total collapse, and you wonder if he might
just pull the whole thing off.

Arbitrage has a sure grasp on the trappings and language of wealth and
finance, perhaps because Jarecki’s parents were commodity brokers
themselves, but it also pulls no punches as it savages the collusion
of money and power that allows the wealthy to get away with what the
poor may not. As a character study it’s exemplary, Gere is no scenery
chewer and his measured restraint keeps the film from overplaying its
hand, the supporting cast are all good enough not to get in the way of
a well structured script and just let Gere and Roth get on with it.
You never, at any point, actually want this horrid, shallow, shiny
person to succeed but the cleverness of this film is that you do want
to see what becomes of him, hoping for the worst, but fearing
otherwise.

Conclusions

It was really rather good. Taut lashings of Hubris and wonderful filming.

read more





Timbuktu hails France's President Francois Hollande, its saviour in a suit Telegraph
Law & Politics


Like a Roman conqueror, President Francois Hollande raised his palms
in triumph and plunged into an ecstatic crowd in Timbuktu yesterday,
grasping one hand after another as thousands of Malians hailed him as
their "saviour".

This diminutive and bespectacled socialist, derided by his opponents
as a dithering dullard, does not look like a natural liberation
leader. But yesterday, in the eyes of Timbuktu's people, Mr Hollande
became the liberator of one of the most famous – if isolated – cities
in the world.

"Alongside the Malians and the Africans, we have liberated this town.
Today Timbuktu. Tomorrow Kidal. And others are still to come," he
declared. "You have accomplished an exceptional mission."

 After leaving the mosque, Mr Hollande was taken to meet the people of
Timbuktu in the town's central square. If his entourage were expecting
a sedate walkabout among a friendly crowd, they were soon to be
surprised.

Thousands were gathered, many of them waving Tricolours. In the front
row stood a party of women, brightly dressed and unveiled, with locks
of braided hair falling around their shoulders. Had they appeared like
that in public only six days ago, they would have risked 100 lashes
from Timbuktu's previous rulers, administered with a camel hide whip.

But yesterday, two young women wore T-shirts declaring: "Merci la
France pour votre soutien au Mali." Other banners in the crowd vied
for the most effusive expressions of gratitude. "Papa Francois
Hollande," read one. "The city of mysteries you have saved welcomes
you! Thank you!"

Conclusions

An unalloyed Success for France and surely set to pop Holande's
Popularity at Home.

Hagel is said to have noted “The president has not had
commander-in-chief control of the Pentagon since Bush senior was
president.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bob-woodward-why-obama-picked-hagel-for-defense-secretary/2013/01/27/b87eb8ce-68ae-11e2-af53-7b2b2a7510a8_story.html

According to an account that Hagel later gave, and is reported here
for the first time, he told Obama: “We are at a time where there is a
new world order. We don’t control it. You must question everything,
every assumption, everything they” — the military and diplomats —
“tell you. Any assumption 10 years old is out of date. You need to
question our role. You need to question the military. You need to
question what are we using the military for.

“Afghanistan will be defining for your presidency in the first term,”
Hagel also said, according to his own account, “perhaps even for a
second term.” The key was not to get “bogged down.”

read more




Indian Ocean Obama’s Geopolitical China ‘Pivot’: The Pentagon Targets China
Law & Politics


The Pentagon “String of pearls” strategy against China in effect is
not one of beautiful pearls, but a hangman’s noose around the
perimeter of China, designed in the event of major conflict to
completely cut China off from its access to vital raw materials, most
especially oil from the Persian Gulf and Africa.

Former Pentagon adviser Robert D. Kaplan, now with Stratfor, has noted
that the Indian Ocean is becoming the world’s “strategic center of
gravity” and who controls that center, controls Eurasia, including
China. The Ocean is the vital waterway passage for energy and trade
flows between the Middle East and China and Far Eastern countries.
More strategically, it is the heart of a developing south-south
economic axis between China and Africa and Latin America.

Since 1997 trade between China and Africa has risen more than
twenty-fold and trade with Latin America, including Brazil, has risen
fourteen fold in only ten years. This dynamic, if allowed to continue,
will eclipse the economic size of the European Union as well as the
declining North American industrial economies in less than a decade.
That is a development that Washington circles and Wall Street are
determined to prevent at all costs.

Straddled by the Islamic Arch–which stretches from Somalia to
Indonesia, passing through the countries of the Gulf and Central Asia–
the region surrounding the Indian Ocean has certainly become the
world’s new strategic center of gravity.[23]

No rival economic bloc can be allowed to challenge American hegemony.
Former Obama geopolitical adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, a student of
Mackinder geopolitics and still today along with Henry Kissinger one
of the most influential persons in the US power establishment, summed
up the position as seen from Washington in his 1997 book, The Grand
Chessboard: American Primacy and It’s Geostrategic Imperatives:

It is imperative that no Eurasian challenger emerges, capable of
dominating Eurasia and thus of also challenging America. The
formulation of a comprehensive and integrated Eurasian geo-strategy is
therefore the purpose of this book. [24]

For America, the chief geopolitical prize is Eurasia…. America’s
global primacy is directly dependent on how long and how effectively
its preponderance on the Eurasian continent is sustained. [25]

In that context, how America ‘manages’ Eurasia is critical. Eurasia is
the globe’s largest continent and is geopolitically axial. A power
that dominates Eurasia would control two of the world’s three most
advanced and economically productive regions. A mere glance at the map
also suggests that control over Eurasia would almost automatically
entail Africa’s subordination, rendering the Western Hemisphere and
Oceania geopolitically peripheral to the world’s central continent.
About 75 per cent of the world’s people live in Eurasia, and most of
the world’s physical wealth is there as well, both in its enterprises
and underneath its soil. Eurasia accounts for 60 per cent of the
world’s GNP and about three-fourths of the world’s known energy
resources. [26]

The Indian Ocean is crowned by what some call an Islamic Arch of
countries stretching from East Africa to Indonesia by way of the
Persian Gulf countries and Central Asia. The emergence of China and
other much smaller Asian powers over the past two decades since the
end of the Cold war has challenged US hegemony over the Indian Ocean
for the first time since the beginning of the Cold War. Especially in
the past years as American economic influence has precipitously
declined globally and that of China has risen spectacularly, the
Pentagon has begun to rethink its strategic presence in the Indian
Ocean. The Obama ‘Asian Pivot’ is centered on asserting decisive
Pentagon control over the sea lanes of the Indian Ocean and the waters
of the South China Sea.

We met Dolphins on the Way to Wasini Island Indian Ocean #Kenya #Africa #Video
http://www.twitpic.com/823orz

The Setting Sun Lamu Indian Ocean Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/2reo8b

Greetings from somewhere on the Indian Ocean Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/7zo8nl

Sunset Maputo Harbour Mozambique #Africa Indian Ocean Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9s2c0i

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade


Euro 1.3630
Dollar Index 79.21
Japan Yen 92.74
Swiss Franc 0.9087
Pound 1.5696
Aussie 1.0425
India Rupee 52.995
South Korea Won 1096.10
Brazil Real 1.9882
Egypt Pound 6.7191
South Africa Rand 8.8507

The Euro gained 4.8 percent over the past three months among 10
developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted
Indexes. The yen tumbled 16 percent, the biggest decline, and the
dollar lost 1.1 percent.

The ECB’s balance sheet fell to 2.93 trillion euros ($4 trillion) in
the week ended Jan. 25, the lowest since February 2012. The central
bank hasn’t purchased sovereign debt for 45 straight weeks.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 92.73 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The dollar reached 92.97 yen, the highest since May 2010, and gained
2.1 percent on the week to 92.77 yen. It has never before risen for 12
straight weeks versus the Japanese currency, according to records
compiled by Bloomberg dating to 1971.

Conclusions

The Move looks stretched to me now but I am sure we will see a 100
Print this Year.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3629 [Continues to 1.4000]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The euro appreciated in January for a sixth month against both the
dollar and the yen. The advance against the greenback was the longest
since May 2003, and the winning streak versus the Japanese currency
was the longest since the euro began trading in 1999.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.258 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities advanced 4.5
percent in January as contracts outstanding jumped 6.2 percent, the
most in a year.

Crude Oil 5 Day Chart INO 97.57 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=NYMEX_CL.H13.E

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1670.85 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Chef Ducasse Serves Camel, No Wine, in Qatar Islam Center @RichardVines
Emerging Markets


You are one of the world’s leading chefs and you want to create that
special dish using luxury ingredients for your new restaurant in the
Middle East.

What can it be? Alain Ducasse has the answer.

Camel.

Braised for six days and served with foie gras, souffle potatoes and
truffle sauce, it’s the standout dish at Idam, housed within the
Museum of Islamic Art in the Qatari capital of Doha. No alcohol is
served and there’s no wine in the cooking.

“The camels can’t be too young or too old,” Ducasse, 56, says in an
interview in the dining room. He says the dish took months to perfect
with his executive chef, Romain Meder. At 320 Qatari riyals ($87.90)
it’s the top-priced main course.

You might order it after a starter of marinated bonite fish from the
Arabian Gulf, with lemon and gold caviar. That costs 225 riyals. Most
mezze dishes cost between 45 and 90 riyals. Idam, which can seat 60
guests, is Ducasse’s first restaurant in the Middle East and took 18
months to develop.

“The camel dish is a local adaptation of a Rossini,” Ducasse says. “We
work locally with the meat, which is precious here. It’s very, very
high end. We hang it in the fridge for three to four weeks and we slow
cook it, braise it, for six days to reach the level of tenderness:
five days at one temperature and the last day a little higher to fix
the color.

“When we go somewhere, we don’t impose: We propose. It’s a dish that
the locals really like. It’s like braised spare ribs, but there’s no
red wine. There’s no wine in anything. The jus that results from the
braising is a natural jus from the meat itself and the vegetables that
accompany it.”

Dubai, United Arab Emirates: Tourists take photographs of Burj
Khalifa, the world's tallest tower which stands at 828 metres
(2,717ft)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/gallery/2013/feb/02/24-hours-in-pictures#/?picture=403427234&index=9

Skyscrapers and office buildings are seen in the City of London from
'The View From The Shard', a series of viewing galleries near the top
of the Shard tower, in London. Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-31/kate-moss-sulks-shard-views-trey-songz-croons-london-weekend.html

Frontier Markets

Best Stock Pickers Trawl Frontier Markets as U.S. Funds Lose Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-01/best-stock-pickers-trawl-frontier-markets-as-u-s-funds-lose-1-.html

Stock pickers focused on the least- developed markets are trouncing
their benchmark index and producing annual returns at least seven
percentage points higher than mutual fund managers around the world.

Mark Mobius’s Templeton Frontier Markets Fund and 12 peers investing
in countries from Vietnam to Nigeria and Romania earned an average 24
percent last year, topping the 8.4 percent gain in the MSCI Frontier
Markets Index. (MXFM) They beat the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX),
the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, the Topix Index and the MSCI Emerging
Markets Index even as funds in the U.S., Europe, Japan and emerging
markets trailed the benchmark gauges.

The winners are traveling to nations that most money managers avoid,
taking advantage of scarce information to buy undervalued stocks.
Investments in companies such as Nairobi- based East African Breweries
Ltd. (EABL) and Nigeria’s Access Bank Plc (ACCESS) delivered higher
returns with lower volatility than developed- market counterparts more
than 50 times their size, including Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI) and
Bank of America Corp.

“The companies are overlooked and under-owned,”Carlos von Hardenberg,
an Istanbul-based money manager at Franklin Templeton Investments who
helped Mobius post a 24 percent gain in the firm’s $1.3 billion
frontier fund last year, said in a Jan. 16 phone interview. “Markets
are far less efficient.”

Frontier funds’ 24 percent average return last year compares with 14
percent for U.S. funds, 16 percent in both Japan and emerging markets,
and 17 percent in Europe, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

MSCI Inc.’s frontier gauge, comprised of 141 stocks with an average
market value of $3 billion, climbed 7.5 percent last month, including
dividends, and reached the highest level since August 2011 on Jan. 31.
The MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of shares in developed and
emerging countries is up 4.6 percent in 2013, following a 17 percent
gain last year.

The MSCI frontier index is valued at 11.6 times reported profits, a 27
percent discount to the MSCI All-Country index, after trading at a
premium as recently as June 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The
frontier index’s dividend yield of about 3.6 percent and its projected
earnings growth of 17 percent are both about one percentage point
higher than the emerging-market gauge.

Consumer spending in frontier nations will climb 9.2 percent on
average this year, faster than the 8.3 percent pace in emerging
markets, according to Euromonitor International, a consumer research
firm.

Smaller price swings and lower correlations in frontier countries
appeal to investors looking for returns less tied to fluctuations in
global markets, said Rami Sidani, a money manager at Schroder
Investment Management in Dubai.

The MSCI frontier measure’s 50-day historical volatility of 5 and its
correlation of 0.4 with the All-Country index compare with readings of
8.6 and 0.6 for the emerging gauge, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. A correlation of 1 means prices are moving in tandem while
zero indicates no relationship.

“What happens in the U.S. has an impact on China’s exports, but it has
less of an impact on how many beers the average guy in Kenya is
drinking” said Hans-Henrik Skov, whose $58 million BankInvest New
Emerging Markets Equities Fund (BINEMEI) climbed about 37 percent last
year and owns shares of East African Breweries.

Institutional investors have about $15 billion in frontier countries,
said Schroder’s Sidani. That compares with about $330 billion in
global emerging market funds, according to Cambridge,
Massachusetts-based EPFR Global.

BankInvest’s Skov boosted holdings in East African Breweries after he
learned during a November trip that the company is tapping into demand
from Kenya’s poorest consumers.

Senator brand beer, introduced in 2004, has become popular among
Kenyans who can’t afford the company’s premium brands such as Tusker,
Skov said in a Jan. 15 phone interview from Copenhagen.

To keep prices and costs low, Senator is distributed to local bars in
kegs instead of individual bottles. The company also gets a tax break
from the government because the beer has become an alternative to
home-brewed alcoholic drinks that pose health risks, said Skov, who
oversees more than $200 million.

While East African Breweries returned 88 percent in the past 12
months, the $2.7 billion company is valued at 22 times reported
earnings, less than the average of 40 times for brewers in Africa and
the Middle East, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The stock’s 50-day volatility of 15 compares with a reading of 16 for
AB InBev, the world’s biggest brewer. The Leuven, Belgium-based
company, which has a market value of $151 billion, has climbed 53
percent in the past year.

“These markets are tomorrow’s emerging markets,” Sidani, whose $57
million Schroder Frontier Markets Equity (SISFMEA) fund returned about
19 percent last year, said in a Jan. 14 phone interview. “They’re
offering great growth prospects.”

Conclusions

read more


On The Road The Star
Emerging Markets


My Christmas holiday ritual is to jump into a car and take the family
down to the Coast. The Nairobi-Mombasa road arrows ‘into immensities
and is ‘impossible-to- believe.’ It retains a near mystical hold on my
imagination and connects me to my childhood and beyond. Dad used to
once own an Alfa Romeo [of which there were only three then in the
country] and my pilgrimage along that road started then, when we used
to come from Mombasa. Now, of course, we set off from Nairobi but the
road still has its hold. The landmarks still reach out to me. This
time we were swarmed by doves near Emali which was breathtaking. There
is still the eerie and de- serted very Oscar Niemeyer building which
might have been a petrol station with a restaurant. We stopped at
Makindu which is like being teleported to Amritsar and on New Years
day was packed to the rafters. We always stop at Mackinnon road where
there is a shrine which houses the tomb of Seyyid Baghali, a Punjabi
foreman at the time of the building of the railway who was renowned
for his strength. And this time we took ourselves to Vipingo and
Watamu. In Vipingo,I was introduced to a pristine beach which is
accessed via a ladder as if you were descending from the real world
into another.

Jim Rogers who is a trader of some repute and co-founded the Quantum
Fund with George Soros at one point took a sabbatical and took off on
a motor bike round the world and wrote a book called Invest- ment
Biker. Now I am not proposing that you bike the Nairobi- Mombasa road,
not at all.

However, as I looked through the performance tables for 2012 and by
the way the Nairobi all share ranked eighth worldwide out of 104
indices that I track and has started 2013 with a bang and confounding
expectations the first quarter would be more of a whimper as investors
watch the general elections loom large. Returning to the premier
league of stock indices in 2012, the top ten reads, Venezuela,
Istanbul, Egypt, Phillipines, Estonia, Thailand, Karachi, eighth you
know about, Nigeria and tenth Laos. I do not see one developed market
index in that rank- ing. The returns in 2012 have come from off the
well trodden path and I expect this to continue. Edwin Lefevre says in
his seminal Book Reminiscences of a Stock Market Operator; ‘The Tape
is Your Telescope.’

The Nairobi all share has rallied +2.57221% over the first three
sessions in 2013 admittedly whilst most folks were still on their
holidays. EABL, BAT, ARM and City Trust all hit all time highs. Kenya
Commercial Bank missed an all time high by a whisker Friday and will
post one this week. Safaricom closed at a 28 month high.

A market is considered in a bull trend when it rallies over 20 per
cent. The Nairobi all share has been in a bull market since the May 7,
2012 and has been resolutely bullish since then. Foreign investors
have been on the buy side since the start of 2012 and local investors
on the sell side.

And every local investor I meet no longer says;

‘I will buy the pull back. It always falls before the election.’

They are now asking rather forlornly

‘Its going to correct isn’t it?’

I believe we are in a one off adjustment in favour of Africa.

read more




MSCI Frontier Index Bloomberg Year To Date +7.87%
Emerging Markets


A cedar and terra-cotta pavilion alongside the square pond at Marella
Agnelli's property in Marrakech WSJ
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324894104578115393668183954.html?mod=WSJMagazineTravel_LEFTStories

A cedar and terra-cotta pavilion alongside the square pond at Marella
Agnelli's property in Marrakech exemplifies Cox's simultaneously grand
and plain gardens. The late Bill Willis designed the structure on a
newly created pond filled with several varieties of papyrus and water
lilies and lined with crinum, polyanthus, jasmine, amaryllis,
agapanthus, liane de floride, climbing roses and pomegranate trees.

read more


Bharti Airtel Africa Earnings
Africa


2.2.2 Africa
Mobile Services – We offer mobile services in 17 countries across
Africa, namely: Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Chad, Congo B, Democratic
Republic of Congo, Gabon, Madagascar, Niger, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi,
Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Rwanda. We
serve 61.7 million customers across these geographies. We offer wide
range of services to our customers, which includes post-paid,
pre-paid, roaming, One- Network, Airtel Money, internet services,
content, media & entertainment and other non-voice services.

3.2 Region wise - Summary of Consolidated Financial Statements Quarter
Ended Dec 2012 versus Quarter Ended Dec 2011
Africa Total Revenues  61.694 versus 53.577
EBITDA 16.383 versus 14.351
EBIT 4.406 versus 2.999
Net Income [Loss] [5.204] versus [2.599]
Nine Months End Dec 2012
Total Revenues 179.792
EBITDA 47.720
EBIT 12.208
Net Income [Loss] [17.241]

3.3.7 Consolidated Africa – comprises of 17 country operations in Africa.
Total Revenues Quarter Ended Dec 2012 1.133b versus Quarter Ended Dec
2011 1.057b +7.00%
Total Revenues 9 Months Ended Dec 2012 3.296b versus 9mos Ended Dec
2011 3.066b +8.00%
EBITDA Q Ended Dec 2012 300 versus 282 +6.00%
EBITDA Nine Months Ended Dec 2012 873 versus 799 +9.00%
EBIT Q Ended Dec 2012 80 versus 58 +38%
EBIT Nine Months Ended Dec 2012 222 versus 190 +17.00%
Operating Free Cash Flow (EBITDA - Capex)  Q Ended Dec 2012 140 versus 17 +709%
Operating Free Cash Flow (EBITDA - Capex) Nine Months Ended Dec 2012
384 versus [461]
Note 8: Africa financials reported above are in their functional
currency i.e., US$.
Note 9: In constant currency terms, reported revenues of $ 1,133
million for the quarter ended Dec’12 against $ 1,017 million in the
same quarter last year, represents a growth of 11.5%. (Refer page 36
for revenues in constant currency)

Traffic Details
Africa 26174 versus 23646 Quarter on Quarter +11%

4.9 Operational Performance - Africa
Customer Base 61.687m versus 58.667m Quarter on Quarter +5.00%
Pre Paid as a % of Customer Base 99.3% unchanged
ARPU $6.2 versus $6.4 -
Voice Usage Per customer 144 versus 138
Data as a % of Mobile Revenues 3.9% versus 3.6%
Total MBs on Network 2.450 versus 2.145
DATA ARPU $1.1 versus $1.00
DATA Usage Per Customer 58 versus 56
Total Employees 4,889
Personnel Cost Per Employee per Month $6,211.00

Mobile Services – Africa
The telecom market in Africa has grown in local currency terms in
single digits this year. Political and economic developments as well
as aggressive pricing by market leaders and newer players have been
the main reasons for this subdued market growth. In this context, the
Company’s efforts to stimulate growth through affordable services and
festival promotions have borne fruit in this quarter as well.

Manoj Kohli CEO Bharti Airtel #Africa Business after Conflict #Africa
will have 2b people Population is key for us Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/bh68mo

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 8.84302 [Rand strongest level
since Jan. 23]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

South Africa All Share Bloomberg Year To Date +3.44%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Nigeria All Share Year To Date +15.44% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg Year To Date +4.23%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EGX30:IND

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.7210 [Record Lows]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Baobab trees growing in a field in northern, Mali Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/gallery/2013/feb/01/week-in-wildlife-in-pictures#/?picture=403394331&index=8

The Tsavo is remote and off the Grid #Kenya Baobab Tree
http://www.twitpic.com/amobyf

The Economics of Extinction: Africa’s Elephants and Rhinos in Danger Newsweek
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2013/01/28/the-economics-of-extinction-africa-s-elephants-and-rhinos-in-danger.html

Prices have already reached unprecedented heights, with ivory
commanding more than $1,000 per kilogram in Beijing, while rhino horn
fetches more than 20 times that figure—far more precious than gold or
cocaine.

Conclusions

Its such a Tragedy.

read more


Titanium firm plans second drawdown for Kwale mine Business Daily
Kenyan Economy


Base Resources says it has secured enough money to finance operations
at its Kwale mines.

The company’s quarterly report for December 2012 shows that it secured
a $170 million (Sh14.9 billion) debt in November, and has already
spent $52 million (Sh4.56 billion) of the amount on developing its
titanium mines and processing plant.

The miner said in the report released last week that the extra cash
would finance operations until the firm starts shipments by the end of
this year.

“This was a critical milestone as Base now has access to the full
funding required to complete development of the Kwale Project and
bring it to positive cash flow,” said the report released last week.

Base Resources got the funds from seven lenders; West LB AG,
Caterpillar Structured Finance, DEG Deutsche Investitions, The
Standard Bank of South Africa, Nedbank Capital, FMO Netherlands, and
Proparco.

The miner added that it would make another debt draw-down this month.

“Under the terms of the debt facility, subsequent drawdowns will be
made on a quarterly basis with the next scheduled for February,” said
the report.

The mineral sands project is Kwale County is projected to cost $298
million (Sh26 billion). The report says that Base Resources has spent
$143 million (Sh12.5 billion) of the amount by the end of last year.
The project budget rose by 14 per cent due to rising labour costs and
additional designs, said the miner.

Conclusions

Mwakwere gave Kenyan Investors a unique Entry Point and Level last
Year when he went rogue.

Base Resources share Price data here Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BSE:AU

0.3550 AUD

Kenya Gains Independence 1963 PATHE VIDEO
http://www.britishpathe.com/video/kenya-gains-independence/query/kenya

read more




The Flame Trees of Thika
Kenyan Economy


We were going to Thika, a name on a map where two rivers joined. Thika
in those days - the year was 1913 - was a favourite camp for big-game
hunters and beyond it there was only bush and plain. We were not going
as far as that, only two days' journey in the ox-cart to a bit of El
Dorado my father had been fortunate enough to buy in the bar of the
Norfolk hotel from a man wearing an Old Etonian tie.

Fortunes are being made already Out at Kiambu. You've only got to look
at the place to see how well everything grows. The trouble is to keep
the vegetation down. [all about Real Estate a 100 Years later]

Wonderfully healthy climate, splendid neighbours, magnificent sport,
thousands of years of untapped fertility locked up in the soil. I
congratulate you, my dear fellow, I really do. You've been lucky to
get this opportunity. Buck Ponsonby was bitterly disappointed. Best of
luck; and look us up when you come in for the races. Keep in touch,
old man.

Ruiru was just a few dukas kept by Indians and a river crossing, not
even a bridge: a causeway made by shovelling murram into the swampy
stream and putting up some white posts. In the rains it was awash or
under water and wagons often stuck, some times for days.

Conclusions

What I really enjoy about this Book, is overlaying todays Landscape
over the Landscape The Author is describing.

Tatu City lays off 60pc of staff in strategic change of business model Nation
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Tatu-City-lays-off-60pc-of-staff/-/1006/1683358/-/ng7if5z/-/index.html

A real estate investment firm has shed 60 per cent of its workforce in
what the management says is a change of strategy and business model.
In a new strategy, Tatu City says it will now outsource most of its
services.Majority of the affected staff were recruited in March last
year after the company got approvals from the National Environmental
Management Authority (Nema) and the Ruiru Municipal Council to start
the project. The affected employees had January 31, this year as their
last working day.

“Over the last three years, we have been in a planning phase for the
project which is now headed towards its execution stage.

The employees who have left were all involved in the planning phase,”
Tatu City head of corporate affairs and communication, Mr Solomon
Mahinda told the Nation.

The recruitment of its chief executive is, however, still pending. The
Sh240-billion city is to be built in Kiambu County — 60 kilometres
from Nairobi.

The lay off comes two weeks after the High Court declined to wind up
the company as requested by minority shareholders, Ms Rosemary Wanja
and Mr Stephen Mwagiru instead urging the two to sell off their
shareholding.

Other local shareholders include industrialist Vimal Shah, former
Central Bank governor Nahashon Nyagah and businessman Josphat Kinyua.

Investment company, Renaissance Group, holds a majority stake in the
multi-billion project. The court case which has been pending in court
since 2010 has delayed the start of the project which is being
undertaken by Renaissance Group, though its real estate development
subsidiary, Rendeavour.

Sitting on a 2,500-acre plot of land on the outskirts of Nairobi, the
modern city is expected to house about 62,000 residents and
accommodate an average of 30,000 visitors daily. It is also expected
to create over 500,000 permanent and temporary jobs once complete.

Rendeavour is also developing other similar cities in Africa including
two in Ghana at King City and Appolonia, Kiswishi in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo and Roma Park in Zambia.

Last year, the company awarded a Sh300 million contract to Gibb Africa
and Mehta Construction Company to clear the site to pave way for
construction of road, electricity and drainage systems for Tatu City.

“We are scheduled to commence civil works during 2013 with the next
phases to be announced shortly,” Mr Mahinda added.

KCB renews search for head of investment bank unit Business Daily
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/KCB-renews-search-for-head-of-investment-bank-unit/-/539552/1683306/-/uks4spz/-/index.html

KenGen share price data here +33.522% so far in 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mzc%3D

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           11.75
Total Shares Issued:          2198361344.00
Market Capitalization:        25,830,745,792
EPS:             1.29
PE:                 9.109

EABL was the most traded stock in January, recording a turnover of
Sh1.5 billion Business Daily
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/KenGen-highest-gainer-in-Jan-trade/-/539552/1683412/-/esl8qi/-/index.html

Diageo, the parent company of EABL, released interim results to
December 2012 ahead of EABL’s expected announcement on February 15.
Net sales growth for the East Africa region was up 11 per cent on the
back of high volumes of the Senator brand and expansion into the Great
lakes and Tanzania.

The Diageo report also indicated that Tusker and Guinness brands
recorded growth, but sales of spirits were subdued.

“We remain pessimistic on the upcoming numbers on account of high
finance costs,” said Standard Investment Bank in a research note
released on Friday.

EABL share price data here +14.3396% 2013 [0.328% below its All Time High]
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzQ%3D

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           303.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774976.00
Market Capitalization:        239,604,817,728
EPS:             13.46
PE:                 22.511

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg Year To Date +9.73%
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg Year To Date +6.96%
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.21 points to close at 104.30.
The Nairobi All Share is +9.951% in 2013.
The Nairobi All Share rallied 11.849% from the Start of the Year
through 16th January.
The All Share then entered a Corrective Phase and corrected 3.4401%
16th January through 24th January.
The All Share has rebounded 1.8057% since the 24th of January.
The NSE20 Index firmed 29.99 points to close at 4450.78.
The NSE20 is +7.669% in 2013.
Equity Turnover was 232.097m versus 1.059b last time and This was more
a Consequence of reduced Sell Side Supply.
The Equity Markets remain resolutely Bullish.
The Shilling was trading at 87.60 Last it hit 88.00 a 1 Year Low last week.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi traded 50,000 shares all at 75.00 +5.63%. Kakuzi is +4.166% in
2013, trades on a Trailing PE of 2.672.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom traded 2nd at the Securities Exchange and eased 0.9% to
close at 5.50 and traded 2.871m shares worth 15.782m. Safaricom traded
110.832m shares the previous Session and self evidently todays trading
was light by comparison. Safaricom has passed through the 10% Excise
Tax on M-Pesa Money Transfers as of last week. Safaricom is +8.91% in
2013. The Supply Side is thin all the way up the Card signalling the
Price Bias is higher.

Nation Media firmed 1.5384% to close at 264.00 and traded 57,400
shares worth 15.182m. Buy Side Demand at the Closing Bell was for 207%
more share than were traded during the Session. Nation Media is
+19.457% in 2013 and has matched its all time Closing High reached on
the 16th of January. Nation Media was trading at session High of
265.00 +1.92% at the Closing Bell.

Nation Media share price data here +19.457% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTA%3D

ScanGroup rallied 3.731% to close at 69.50 and was trading at Session
Highs of 71.00 +5.97% at the Finish Line. ScanGroup traded 147,500
shares worth 10.317m. Buy Side Demand at the Closing Bell was for
249.76% more shares than were traded during the Session. ScanGroup is
+1.459% in 2013 and 1.41% below its All Time Record Closing High of
70.50 from the 19th of December last Year.

ScanGroup share price data +1.459% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTE%3D

Kenya Airways bounced 1.88% to close at 10.85 and traded 29,900
shares. Kenya Airways is oversold and basing out.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial firmed 0.745% to close at 33.75 and was trading at
34.00 +1.49% at the Closing Bell. Kenya Commercial Bank traded 432,500
shares and Had Buy Side Demand at the Closing Bell for 634% more
shares than were traded during the Session. Kenya Commercial Bank is
+13.445% in 2013 and 2.173% below its all time Closing High of 34.50
from the 16th of January this Year.

Kenya Commercial Bank share price data +13.445% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D

Equity Bank improved 0.94% to close at 26.75 and traded 405,400 shares
worth 10.842m. Equity Bank is +12.631% in 2013.
Barclays Bank firmed 0.31% to close at 16.15 and traded 392,700 shares.
Diamond Trust Bank firmed 1.5533% to close at 131.00 and traded 33,700 shares.

NIC Bank closed unchanged at 42.50 and traded 255,200 shares worth
10.849m. NIC Bank is +11.11% in 2013 and sits 5.555% below its All
Time Closing High of 45.00 from the 17th and 18th of January.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL was the most actively traded share at the Nairobi Securities
Exchange today. EABL firmed 0.33% to close at 304.00 and matched its
all time Closing High of 304.00 previously achieved on January 16th.
EABL is +14.71698% in 2013 and was trading session Highs of 306.00
+0.99% at the Closing Bell. EABL traded 299,500 shares worth 91.304m
which was 39.33% of the Total Volume traded today. Investors gained
Visibility on EABL's Earnings via the Diageo Earnings Release and
remain enamoured with the Stock. Bloomberg carried a Report last week
about Frontier Market Investing and quoted a Fellow called Hans-Henrik
Skov, who manages the  $58 million BankInvest New Emerging Markets
Equities Fund (BINEMEI) who said;

“What happens in the U.S. has an impact on China’s exports, but it has
less of an impact on how many beers the average guy in Kenya is
drinking.”

That remains an important Part around the Reason why Foreign Investors
are so keen on the EABL Story.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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