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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 05th of February 2013

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

It was a Pleasure meeting @NimaCNN Thanks for the Interview Twitpic

I do not meet many Interviewers who are as tall as I am.

Who is Kenya's Traceur? The Star

On September 10th 2012, I wrote about Super Mario Draghi and his
'Parcours' and said then that 'The triple bottom line is that this is
not a fellow to bet against.' The Euro rallied to a 14 month Friday
and has posted a 6 Month Winning Streak.

The Question for us here in Kenya is whether we too have a Parcours. A
Parkour [which is a c21st Made Up word and a derivative of Parcours]
means 'a quasi commando system of leaps, vaults, rolls, and landings
designed to help a person avoid or surmount whatever lies in his
path--a vocabulary, that is, to be employed in finding one's way among
obstacles. Parkour goes over walls, not around them; it takes the
stair rail, not the stairs.' [Parkour Description via  ALEC WILKINSON
Navigating the world by leaps and bounds The New Yorker]. Parkour is
all about the Fluidity and the Elegant Shape of the Journey. A Person
who practices Parkour is called a Traceur. Interestingly My Friend who
tweets via the Jubilee Insurance Twitter Handle told me that Parkour
was invented by the Pygmies in the DR Congo, who sped through the Rain

Now As we approach The potentially High Impact Election in March, I am
left wondering;

Who is designing Kenya's Parcours? I, for one, would far prefer to be
navigating The World by Leaps and Bounds because There are plenty of
Obstacles and charging into Obstacles like Lord Cardigan did with his
Light Brigade is just not cool.

The Nairobi All Share has been on a Roll and was +9.73% in January but
the Point to note is that it is still below Levels seen in Q4 2007 so
There is Plenty of Head Room. Those hoping [and There are Plenty] for
a Sell-Off in order to get into the Stock Market are just not going to
get it. I meet so many Folks who tell me but the Stock Market always
falls before the Election. When Everyone is thinking one thing in the
Markets, I have found, the very opposite happens. And the Risk is for
these Folks, That the Election goes well, and They will be chasing a
Rocketship on its way to Mars [Don't Stop Me Now Queen 44,326,111
Views on YouTube]. The Shilling has been taking some Punches and
traded 88.00 a 1 Year Low last week before bouncing a little.
Anecdotal Chatter is of Good Sized Buying of 90.00 Strike Put Options
[i.e The Buyer makes money if the Shilling trades over 90.00]. On a
Risk Reward Basis, I would prefer to be on the Other Side of the Trade
and raking in the Premium. Credit Growth remains real soft and nudged
higher but was only 9.1% year on year in Nov 12, which is anaemic. I
appreciate that Inflation ticked higher in January but it remains very
well behaved and within the Central Bank's Target Corridor Rate.
Peering out of my 8th Floor Window, I appreciate a Flood of Liquidity
might well hit the Economy, going by the number of Souped up
Electioneering Buses making their Noisy way around the City. What
happened to NEMA, by the Way? This Deafening Cacophony surely defines
Noise Pollution?

Here's to finding a Traceur who has the wherewithal to design a
Parcours to lead Kenya to that 10% GDP Expansion Rate about which
every Manifesto speaks.

"We designed a parcours" Super Mario: The Euro's Saviour

A young man who practices parkour is called a traceur; a woman is a traceuse.

Macro Thoughts

A Bit of a Correction yesterday.

Home Thoughts

The southern winter sky shows off its best in this 240 degree view of
the Milky Way behind the Quiver Tree Forest near Keetmanshoop,

The Milky Way looking like a giant tree atop of the mountain near Ush
Konyr plateau, Kazakhstan.

read more

Jordan's King Abdullah: 'The New Taliban Are in Syria'
Law & Politics

Jordan's King Abdullah warned today that those who think the Syrian
regime of Bashar al-Assad will fall in weeks don't know the situation
on the ground. He expects Assad will hold on for at least the first
half of 2013. And he cautioned that even if that government falls and
is replaced by a strong and effective new administration (which is
doubtful) it could take years to clean out the jihadists that have
established themselves inside Syria's war-torn territory. Al Qaeda has
established itself there, he said, and added, "The new Taliban we are
going to have to deal with are in Syria."

R2P: Imperial Conquest by Another Name YouTube

The new R2P [Right to Protect] rule [which was used in Libya] is a
powerful legal tool. 24-OCT-2011

Richard III dig: DNA confirms bones are king's BBC

William Shakespeare, Richard III

5.      The lights burn blue. It is now dead midnight.
Cold fearful drops stand on my trembling flesh.
What do I fear? Myself? There's none else by.
Richard loves Richard; that is, I am I.
Is there a murderer here? No. Yes, I am.
Then fly! What, from myself? Great reason. Why:
Lest I revenge. Myself upon myself?
Alack, I love myself. Wherefore? For any good
That I myself have done unto myself?
O no, alas, I rather hate myself
For hateful deeds committed by myself.
I am a villain.

"Conscience is but a word that cowards use,
Devis'd at first to keep the strong in awe:
Our strong arms be our conscience, swords our law.
March on, join bravely, let us to't pell-mell;
If not to heaven, then hand in hand to hell."
-- William Shakespeare, Richard III

The Humiliation of Richard III NewYorker

Jo Appleby, an osteoarchaeologist who was part of the team, said that
there were eight wounds to the skull alone, several with a bladed
weapon or "something similar to a halberd," and that it was "hard to
understand how any of these injuries could have been caused if this
individual had been wearing a protective helmet." The wounds on
Richard's face looked like they may have been inflicted after death,
and represent " humiliation injuries."

There were other injuries, too, that could not have been made if his
armor was still on: a cut to his ribs; and, most brutally, an injury
to the right pelvis, "highly consistent with being a blade wound from
a weapon, perhaps a knife or dagger, which came from behind in an
upward movement":

Detailed three-dimensional reconstruction of the pelvis has indicated
that this injury was caused by a thrust through the right buttock, not
far from the midline of the body.... Historical sources suggest that
Richard's naked body was flung over a horse after the Battle of
Bosworth before being carried back to Leicester. Whilst we can never
be certain of what happened, if so this would have provided an ideal
opportunity for a wound such as this to be inflicted as a symbolic act
of humiliation to the body.

If Richard was sodomized with a sword it may have been preferable that
the act followed, rather than caused, his death.

What story would we tell if we found, unnamed and unfamiliar, the body
of a man with a physical disability who had been bound, his head
crushed, his body mutilated? Would it tell us something about warfare
and its lack of limits (it does anyway), or about who a society valued
and why? Last month, the Times reported on the discovery of a far more
ancient set of bones, of a boy who lived four thousand years ago and
seems to have survived for a decade after a congenital condition had
fused his vertebrae and left him "bent and crippled by disease,"
unable to walk. That story was offered as proof of compassion among
prehistoric people, who carried the boy with him rather than
abandoning him as useless. Would it ever occur to us to think he could
have been their king?


Muammar Gaddafi was also sodomised so not much has changed.

24-OCT-2011 Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message?

The raw feed of the capture and then death of the Liby- an dictator
Muammar Gaddafi and his son Mo'tassim Gaddafi raise plenty of
questions. The bodies are currently lying side by side, bloodied and
half-naked on a filthy mattress in a meat locker, in Misrata.

John Donne wrote: "... Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell
tolls, It tolls for thee..."

I am left thinking, this dead Gaddafi business is one powerful
message. And today Marshall McLuhan's prediction in The Gutenberg
Galaxy (1962) that 'The new electronic interdependence recreates the
world in the image of a global village' has come to pass. The image of
a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have
flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter.

Who is in charge of the messaging? Through the fog of real time and
raw footage, I note a very powerful message. The essence of that
message being;

'Don't Fxxk with us! Be- cause you will end up dead and a trophy
souvenir in a fridge.'

That same person is probably repeating Muammar's comment, "I tell the
coward crusaders: I live in a place where you can't get me. I live in
the hearts of millions."

And asking 'Really? Are You? Or are you now very dead and in a meat locker?'

Richard 111's Skull

Sic transit gloria mundi is a Latin phrase that means "Thus passes the
glory of the world."

It has been interpreted as "Worldly things are fleeting." It is
possibly an adaptation of a phrase in Thomas à Kempis's 1418 work The
Imitation of Christ: "O quam cito transit gloria mundi" ("How quickly
the glory of the world passes away")

"For what it's worth, shooting the messenger and suppressing the truth
by silencing your opponents isn't quite the way to win the war of
ideas," @HSMPRESS1

A Linguistic Analysis of this Twitter Handle confirms The Author has
to have been brought up in the United Kingdom.

read more

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade

Euro 1.3484 reached 1.3711 on Feb. 1, the highest level since Nov. 14, 2011.
Dollar Index 79.68
Japan Yen 92.44
Swiss Franc 0.9103
Pound 1.5755
Aussie 1.0398 inflation outlook "would afford scope to ease policy
further, should that be necessary to support demand" Reserve Bank of
India Rupee 53.27
South Korea Won 1084.60
Brazil Real 1.9962
Egypt Pound 6.7138
South Africa Rand 8.9236 South Africa posted a trade gap of 32 billion
rand ($3.6 billion) in the fourth quarter

djfxtrader: "Devaluing a currency is like peeing in bed. It feels good
at first..." sr Fed official to our @guerreraf72:
djfxtrader: HSBC #China January Services PMI 54.0 Vs 51.7 in December

The euro has slipped 0.1 percent in the past week, paring to 2.4
percent its gain so far in 2013, according to Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes which tracks 10 developed-nation
currencies. The yen has dropped 6.9 percent since Dec. 31 and the
dollar is down 0.2 percent. The yen tumbled 16 percent over the past
three months, the biggest decline among 10 developed-nation currencies
tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro gained 4.5
percent and the dollar dropped 1.7 percent.

Euro versus the Dollar 5 day Chart 1.34817 Last INO

European Central Bank policy makers meet on Feb. 7.

Spain's 10-year bond yield climbed to 5.44 percent, the highest since
Dec. 12, as Rajoy said the allegations published in Spain's biggest
newspaper El Pais are unfounded.


A Sharp Sell Off - I cannot see it retracing below 1.34 and I think
those sorts of Levels present a Long Re Entry Level.

Dollar Yen 5 Day Chart INO 92.389 Last

Dollar Index 5 Day Chart INO 79.707 Last

read more

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Crude Oil 5 Day Chart INO 96.04 Last

Crude for March delivery was at $96.04 a barrel, down 13 cents, in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:38 p.m.
Sydney time. The volume of all futures traded was 60 percent above the
100-day average. The contract slid $1.60 yesterday to $96.17, the
lowest close since Jan. 25 and the biggest decrease since Dec. 6.


Profit Takers were a little more earnest yesterday after a Strong
multi Month Rally.

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1674.36 Last

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more

Kenya flower farmers braced for poll threat By Katrina Manson in Naivasha FT
Kenyan Economy

The bouquets-in-waiting might be blooming but Kenya's forthcoming
general election could not come at a worse time for flower farmers.

Two big dates for the flower industry - celebrated in many export
markets - not only fall within a couple of days of each other this
year but in the same week as the country's March 4 vote.

The lucrative sales opportunities are clouded by memories of
poll-related violence in early 2008, after the previous general
election in late 2007, which led to more than 1,100 deaths and brought
exports to a standstill.

Some farms garner as much as 10 per cent of their annual take from
Mother's day - on March 10 this year - and International Women's day
on March 8. The latter's popularity has recently blossomed in Russia,
with women across the nation expecting a flower. Moscow regularly
charters aircraft to deliver long-stem roses direct from Nairobi.

The flower sector, part of a $1bn horticulture industry that, along
with tea and tourism, brings in most of the nation's foreign exchange,
is among those preparing for the worst but hoping for the best when
14m Kenyans go to the polls. Voters will be electing senior
politicians including parliamentarians and a new president, as Mwai
Kibaki prepares to step down after two terms in office.

Any widespread violence would be likely to hit all three big forex
earners. Five years ago, growth in east Africa's largest economy
dropped to 1.5 per cent, from 7 per cent the year before.

"We would have preferred elections were held earlier but we are trying
to make some sort of arrangement to ensure we can still supply flowers
ahead of time," says Jane Ngige, chief executive of the Kenya Flower
Council, which represents 70 of the country's 100 flower farms. Kenya
is the EU's biggest supplier of cut flowers.

Already, the flower council is in talks with government and state
security forces in case they need reinforcements, especially in
potential hotspots such as Naivasha, a central flower-growing area and
centre of the violence after the previous election. Freight handlers
at the airport have plans to shift non-perishable goods before the

Last time round, election violence lost the industry about 1bn
shillings ($11.5m), says the flower council. Although sales recovered
over 2008, growth was half that of the year before. Export routes to
the airport were blocked by burning tyres and thugs stopped workers
from getting to farms, pelting buses with sticks and rocks. Some tea
workers were killed in their plantations.

"It was absolute chaos," said Harry Milbank, general manager of a
1,200-worker VP Group farm, which had to dump flowers that could not
make it to the airport. Thirty-five workers never returned. "This time
we are encouraging people not to discuss politics at work; not to feed
the rumour mill. They're the ones who suffer - not the big boys."

Tambuzi farm, which supplies Fairtrade scented roses to Britain's
Waitrose outlets and other markets in Russia, Japan and France, is
among growers staging peace plays in the community and promoting
election slogans such as: "One Kenya, One Tribe."

"All we can do at farm level is ensure no factional split among our
workforce," said Tim Hobbs, the owner.

The farm was ready to repeat emergency measures from last time, which
saw flower export lorries switch drivers according to ethnicity to
ensure they were safe driving through violent areas.
This time round, people are hoping that a political alliance between
the presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, and his
running-mate William Ruto, a Kalenjin, will curb tensions between the
two historically rival groups.

John, one flower farmer from the Luo ethnic group who did not want to
be identified by his surname for fear of reprisals, is taking no
chances. He has already moved his daughter out of the school she
attends in a predominantly Kalenjin area. Third-time presidential
challenger Raila Odinga, who leads opinion polls, is also a Luo.

"We are very much worried as a Luo community. Last time we were looted
- everything went," he said.

Flower farmers are not the only ones preparing for the worst.
Companies say they are stockpiling goods in anticipation of a run on
everything from cash and fuel to mobile telephone credit
scratch-cards. In 2008, cash machines across the capital ran out as
bank employees decided it was too dangerous to deliver money to the
machines. Schools are closing over election week and a public holiday
on voting day may also keep people off the streets. Analysts say
trouble is more likely after the results are announced.

Foreign investors upbeat amid jitters

While those on the ground are braced for possible disruption, foreign
investors appear increasingly bullish on Kenya, writes Katrina Manson.

They comprise 46 per cent of stock-market investment - up from 9 per
cent five years ago - and they kept buying throughout the
post-election violence of 2008. The stock market is up more than 9 per
cent since the start of the year, bolstered by money from abroad.

"Foreign participation is strong, even now, with the elections so
close - it's like investors have already discounted the elections risk
and they still see opportunities," said Peter Mwangi, chief executive
of the Nairobi Securities Exchange. "They look at the valuations,
which they find attractive, and the fundamentals are strong, so there
is a very strong case for taking positions in them."

Investors say it is part of a robust growth story linked to a growing
consumer class, as well as broader prospects for oil and gold. The
World Bank says Kenya is set for 5 per cent growth this year if the
elections go smoothly.

"The next election is a real 'event risk', but in private equity you
are inevitably investing over the cusp of some election or other,"
said Paul Fletcher, senior partner at the UK private equity company

"For at least a decade, Nairobi felt as if was treading water, but in
the last six or seven years it has moved a long way: all the GDP
numbers are trending in the right direction, underpinned by some
mineral activity and a number of bellwether corporate events." He
cited the success of the mobile phone operator Safaricom, whose shares
have risen this year.

A weakening shilling reflects domestic - not overseas - influences,
say analysts.

"It's coming down because people are getting cautious ahead of the
election, which is natural, but it's being driven more by domestic
investors looking for some kind of hard currency protection," said
Aly-Khan Satchu, an investment analyst. "It's not international guys
taking money out - it's our own people turning defensive."


@KatrinaManson dives much deeper than her Peers.

Roses Kenya

@Africa_Conf Africa Confidential MAP #Kenya's voter registrations for
2007 & 2013 elections #Kenya2013

25-JAN-2013 :: Presidential race too close to call - an inevitable
runoff? @IpsosSynovateKe @Maggie Ireri

 28-JAN-2013 :: The Science of Polling @IpsosSynovateKe #MindSpeak. The Star

Kenyan Finance Minister Warns Against 'Expensive' Vote Runoff Businessweek

Kenyan Finance Minister Robinson Githae urged taxpayers to give more
than half the votes to one presidential candidate at elections next
month and avoid an "expensive" and potentially divisive runoff.

Kenya is due to hold its first election under a 2010 constitution that
introduced a second round of voting if no candidate wins by more than
50 percent and gets at least a quarter of the support in 24 of 47

"A rerun is going to be expensive, it may divide this country, so
really this is a message to say 'please make up your mind,'" Githae
told reporters today in Nairobi, the capital. "Let's finish this thing
in the first round."

Tatu City boss resigns amid staff cuts Business Daily

Arnold Meyer has also stepped down from his position as CEO of
Rendeavor Ltd, a firm incorporated by Renaissance Group to develop
commercial and residential cities in Kenya, Ghana, the Democratic
Republic of Congo, and Zambia.
Tatu City, which is plagued by shareholder wrangles, has also shed
more than half of its Nairobi-based staff.

Tatu City is planned to sit on a 1,000 hectare piece of land in
Kiambu, about 40 kilometres north of Nairobi.


I had Dinner with Arnold Meyer last Year and I think his Exit is a Signifier.

The Point remains that the Project has enjoyed an outsized
Appreciation in Land Prices which was the Point Stephen Jennings made
to me last Year when I asked him about the Delay around getting the
Project off the Ground.

Fortunes are being made already Out at Kiambu. The Flame Trees of Thika 1913

The Road to Thika

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +9.951% in 2013.

The Nairobi All Share rallied 11.849% from the Start of the Year
through 16th January. The All Share then entered a Corrective Phase
and corrected 3.4401%
16th January through 24th January. The All Share has rebounded 1.8057%
since the 24th of January.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg  +7.669% in 2013

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

Hillcrest School puts 17.9-acre Karen land on sale Business Daily

Hillcrest International Schools has put on sale 17.9 acres of prime
land in Karen, Nairobi, as part of a fund raising effort for its Sh2
billion expansion plan.

The school did not disclose how much it plans to raise through the
land sale but real estate dealers estimated the figure at a minimum of
Sh350 million.

"The master plan for development of Hillcrest International Schools,
planned for roll out over a number of years, is budgeted at
approximately Sh2 billion," said Hillcrest Investment Limited director
Ayisi Makatiani in a statement.

Hillcrest Investment, a company owned by private equity firm Fanisi
Capital, owns Hillcrest International Schools, which it bought from
the family of former presidential contestant Kenneth Matiba and other
shareholders in August 2011.


Given that the Purchase was a Leveraged Buy Out, It is interesting to
know the % of the Proceeds that will be used to pay down Debt and the
% to be deployed for the 'Master Plan for Development.'

read more

N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.28 points to close at 104.58.
The Nairobi All is +10.2466% in 2013 and 1.4326% below its 16th
January Closing High.
The Nairobi NSE20 rallied 32.84 points to close at 4483.62.
The NSE20 Index is +8.46% in 2013 and 70 points off a 2 Year Closing
High from the 16th of January.
Market Cap crossed 1.4 Trillion to close at 1.403642 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 613.108m versus 232.092m.
EABL which is +15.471% and ScanGroup which is +5.109% set Record Closing Highs.
Nation Media closed unchanged at a Record for the 2nd Consecutive Session.
Kenya Commercial Bank is +15.126% in 2013 and 25c off a Record.
We remain in a Bull Market as we have done since May last Year.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom eased 1.82% to close at 5.40 and traded 2nd at the Exchange
with 28.078m shares worth 152.261m changed hands. Safaricom is +6.93%
in 2013 and has retreated 10% off an August 2010 Intra Day High Print
of 6.00 from the 9th of January this Year. Safaricom trades on a
Trailing PE 16.875.

Safaricom share price day +6.93% 2013

ScanGroup rallied 3.6% to close at 72.00 a Fresh All Time Closing
High. ScanGroup is +5.109% in 2013 and traded 102,700 shares worth
7.395m. ScanGroup trades on a Trailing PE of 27.6387.

ScanGroup share price data +5.109% 2013

Nation Media closed unchanged at 264.00 and traded 71,000 shares worth
18.791m. Nation Media is +19.457% in 2013 and has closed at a Record
High today, yesterday and on the 16th of January.

Nation Media share price data here +19.457% 2013

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 1.48% and closed at 34.25 and was trading
at 34.50 +2.22% at the Finish Line. Kenya Commercial Bank is +15.126%
in 2013 and now is 0.724% below its all time Closing High from the
16th of January this Year. Kenya Commercial Bank traded 346,700 shares
and There was buy Side Demand at the Closing Bell for 1166% more
shares than were traded during the Session meaning it is inevitable
that Kenya Commercial Bank will set a Fresh All Time Closing High this
week. Kenya Commercial Bank trades on a Trailing PE of 9.0269.

Kenya Commercial Bank share price data +15.126% 2013

COOP Bank firmed 1.54% to close at 13.20 and traded 1.447m shares
worth 19.115m. COOP Bank is +4.761% in 2013.

Equity Bank closed unchanged at 26.75 and traded 2.094m shares worth
56.46m. Equity Bank is +12.631% in 2013 and trades on a Trailing PE of

Equity Bank share Price data here +12.631% 2013

Standard Chartered improved 0.38% to close at 264.00 and traded 8,900
shares. The Supply Side is thin and Demand at the Finish Line was for
1174% more shares than were traded during the Session. Standard
Chartered is +12.3404% in 2013 and has the Potential to run up quite
quickly to 300.00.
Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 16.15 and traded 280,800 shares.

BRITAM ticked 0.76% lower to close at 6.50 and traded 1.588m shares
worth 10.327m.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange and
firmed 0.66% to close at 306.00 which is a Fresh All Time Closing
High. EABL has set a Sequence of All Time Highs in 2013 and is
+15.471% so far this Year. EABL traded 887,400 shares worth 272.38m
which was 44.426% of the Total Volume traded at the Exchange today.
EABL was the most actively traded share at the Exchange in January.
EABL traded a 306.00-308.00 range. EABL trades on a Trailing PE of
22.734 and will release 1st Half Results this Month. Investors sighted
these Results via the Diageo Earnings Release.

EABL share Price data +15.471% 2013 Record All Time Closing High

KenGen bounced 1.702% to close at 11.95 and traded a 11.70-12.50 range
and was trading at 12.20 +3.83% into the Finish Line. KenGen is
+35.795% in 2013 and is the best performing Share at the Securities
Exchange in 2013. KenGen trades on a Trailing PE of 9.263. KenGen
closed at a 14 month High of 13.75 on the 18th January and is 13.0909%
below that Level. KenGen traded 1.001m shares worth 11.973m.

Kenya Electricity KENGEN share price data here +35.795% 2013

Kenya Power KPLC firmed 0.84% to close at 17.95 and traded 197,600 shares.

Athi River Mining rebounded 5.715% to close at 55.50 and was trading
at 56.50 +7.62% into the Finish Line. ARM traded 40,600 shares. ARM is
+24.439% in 2013.
Neither Bamburi Cement or East African Portland Cement traded.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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February 2013

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