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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 06th of February 2013

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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The Science of Polling @IpsosSynovateKe #MindSpeak

ON Saturday I hosted Margaret Ireri, the managing director of Ipsos
Synovate Kenya, at Mindspeak. Margaret was a compelling speaker and
the session’s share of voice topped seven million impressions on
social media which is empirical testament of her compelling
presentation and the fact that we are a ‘political’ society. On
Friday, Ipsos Synovate had issued their political poll headlined
‘presidential race too close to call – an inevitable runoff?’

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Mindspeak hosts Margaret Ireri The Star

The Next #Mindspeak Session is on the 16th February and Our Guest is
@JohnGithongo Esquire

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Who is Kenya's Traceur? The Star

Here's to finding a Traceur who has the wherewithal to design a
Parcours to lead Kenya to that 10% GDP Expansion Rate about which
every Manifesto speaks.

"We designed a parcours" Super Mario: The Euro's Saviour

A young man who practices parkour is called a traceur; a woman is a traceuse.

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

It was a Pleasure to catch up with My Father last night.

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A Chinese frigate has locked weapon-targeting radar on a Japanese guard vessel in the area of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, said Japan’s Defense Ministry. RT
Law & Politics

A Chinese frigate has locked weapon-targeting radar on a Japanese
guard vessel in the area of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea,
said Japan’s Defense Ministry. The islands are the subject of a
territorial row between Beijing and Tokyo.

The incident occurred at the end of January, but took time to confirm.
Japan's Foreign Ministry sent a formal protest to China on Tuesday in
connection with the incident.

"Directing such radar is very abnormal. We recognize it would create a
very dangerous situation if a single misstep occurred," Japanese
Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera told the media.

Earlier Chinese ambassador to Japan Cheng Yonghua said the islands and
the surrounding waters were China's "inherent territory".

China will continue to "regularly patrol territorial waters
surrounding the Diaoyu Islands," the country’s state-run Xinhua news
agency has quoted official Beijing.


This is a Flash Point that could Kick off at any moment and Neither
Side can back down, apparently.


President @BarackObama's Pivot to Asia [which looks more like the
Encirclement of China and the Inflaming of the Periphery] relies on
The Japanese taking an increasingly forward Position with respect to

Therefore, We all need to keep a very close Eye on Developments
because this Island Fracas could tip and spin right out of Control.

Aly-Khan Satchu

Shinzō Abe (安倍 晋三 Abe Shinzō?, [abe ɕinzoː] Shinzo Abe

Yasukuni Shrine

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Commander-in-Chief Xi Jinping Raises the Bar on PLA “Combat Readiness” December
Law & Politics

He reiterated that the “core” of the PLA’s multi-dimensional military
tasks was “the ability to win regional warfare under IT-oriented
conditions.” Indeed, since the end of the Maoist era, Xi is the first
PLA chief to have given such graphic instructions about the army’s
constant combat readiness: “We must ensure that our troops are ready
when called upon, that they are fully capable of fighting, and that
they must win every war” (Ming Pao, December 13, 2012; PLA Daily,
December 12, 2012).

Why It's Still Kicking Off Everywhere, Paul Mason Guardian

But the changes in ideas, behaviour and expectations are running far
ahead of changes in the physical world. There is greater space for
democratic movements in the Arab world, but they are constantly
menaced. "The Protester" may have made it on to the cover of Time –
but not a single protest has yet achieved its aim.

If we take 1848–51 as a template, the crucial moments of reaction lie
ahead: coups, crackdowns, intelligence-led disruption of the activists
and hackers. But there is still one powerful factor militating against
a return to stability of the kind achieved after 1848: the economy.

Free-market capitalism offered the generation born after 1985 the moon
and stars. Now, in the west, it can offer very little. Even for those
with jobs, there is a dramatic scaling back of opportunity that makes
no version of the future seem palatable.

To survive, the young have become a generation of drifters, reliving
the plotlines of movies from the 1930s. Without some massive and
cathartic turnaround, the generation in their 20s, in the west, will
never accumulate pay, conditions or savings at the level their parents
did. What they are accumulating is resentment.

In February 2011 I pointed to the use of social networks to organise
protest, and argued that this had made "all propaganda flammable". Two
years on there's a clearer pattern: the interaction of social media
with a mainstream media that is, itself, undergoing rapid change. On
protests you have started to see geeky men wandering around with a
GoPro camera on a bike helmet, linked to a computer and a makeshift
aerial, effectively live-streaming the action to niche blogs. But you
also now have mainstream news networks live-streaming the protests,
albeit sometimes from the safety of a rooftop or helicopter. Wherever
the traditional media has the guts to do it, they can show the
unedited truth about protests: who starts them, who escalates them,
who behaves stupidly, who not.

On top of this, social media have grown more complex. Slowly, quietly,
the mainstream media have become, for many involved in activism,
politics and journalism itself, a secondary source of information,
while social networks have become the primary source. This, in turn,
speaks to the emergence of an undeclared dual power between the world
of ideas and the world of official politics.

Egypt, in short, is the clearest example of the revenge of the
hierarchy: the revenge of the 20th-century ideologies that globalist,
secularist netizens had convinced themselves would expire of their own

When the history of this crisis is written, one of the most
fascinating tasks will be to document the memes that flowed throughout
it. It will not be easy: the digital human consciousness is playful.
Thousands of jokes are made each day on Twitter consisting, for
example, of fake book titles on some iconoclastic theme. It will not
be enough to document what they were, but who made them; the speed at
which the irony flowed; were people at work when they retweeted? Did
the meme stay local, or did it go global?

Two years ago I identified the defining character of this protest
generation as follows: "People have a better understanding of power.
The activists have read their Chomsky and their Hardt-Negri, but the
ideas therein have become mimetic. Young people believe the issues are
no longer class and economics, but simply power: they are clever to
the point of expertise in knowing how to mess up hierarchies and see
the various 'revolutions' in their own lives as part of an 'exodus'
from oppression, not – as previous generations did – as a 'diversion
into the personal'.''

If I could list only one and not 20 reasons why it is still kicking
off, it would be the rise of the networked individual colliding with
the economic crisis. Something fundamental has happened – a shift in
human consciousness and behaviour as momentous as that triggered by
the arrival of mass consumption and mass culture in the 1900s.

I am drawn to Virginia Woolf's comment: "On or about December 1910
human character changed." She was referring to a revolution in social
life and art, which made the literary tools and conventions of the
Edwardian era "dead for us". The protesters have made the 20th century
seem as alien and remote as the 19th century was to Woolf and her

The change, as sociologist Manuel Castells argues, is one-off and
irreversible, like electrification, and it will condition all politics
going forward. So the challenge for traditional politics, right and
left, religious and secular, is, as Castells argues, that the
networked social movements actually reflect the reality of "everyday"
or "normal" life better than the old hierarchical forms.


The Future is Egypt and dystopian unless we find some kind of Accommodation.

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Barack Obama, Drone Ranger
Law & Politics

A key player in our government’s current drone program is John
Brennan, who during the Bush presidency was a senior official at the
Central Intelligence Agency and head of the National Counterterrorism
Center. Obama officially has chosen him to head the CIA.


The Drone War is set to be the New Normal.

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Brennan nomination exposes criticism on targeted killings and secret Saudi base WAPO
Law & Politics

The secrecy surrounding that policy was punctured Monday with the
disclosure of a Justice Department “white paper” that spells out the
administration’s case for killing Americans accused of being al-Qaeda

Brennan “is the architect of [the administration’s] counterterrorism
policy,” Wyden said. “If the Congress doesn’t get answers to these
questions now, it’s going to be extremely difficult, if not
impossible, to get them in the future.”

The Obama administration’s targeted-killing program has relied on a
growing constellation of drone bases operated by the CIA and the U.S.
military’s Joint Special Operations Command. The only strike
intentionally targeting a U.S. citizen, a 2011 attack that killed
al-Qaeda operative Anwar al-Awlaki, was carried out in part by CIA
drones flown from a secret base in Saudi Arabia.

The base was established two years ago to intensify the hunt against
al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, as the affiliate in Yemen is known.
Brennan, who previously served as the CIA’s station chief in Saudi
Arabia, played a key role in negotiations with Riyadh over locating an
agency drone base inside the kingdom.

The Washington Post had refrained from disclosing the location at the
request of the administration, which cited concern that exposing the
facility would undermine operations against an al-Qaeda affiliate
regarded as the network’s most potent threat to the United States, as
well as potentially damage counterterrorism collaboration with Saudi

The Post learned Tuesday night that another news organization was
planning to reveal the location of the base, effectively ending an
informal arrangement among several news organizations that had been
aware of the location for more than a year.

The white paper, which was first reported by NBC News, concludes that
the United States can lawfully kill one of its own citizens overseas
if it determines that the person is a “senior, operational leader” of
al-Qaeda or one of its affiliates and poses an imminent threat.

But the 16-page document allows for an elastic interpretation of those
concepts and does not require that the target be involved in a
specific plot, because al-Qaeda is “continually involved in planning
terrorist attacks against the United States.”

The paper does not spell out who might qualify as an “informed,
high-level official” able to determine whether an American overseas is
a legitimate target. It avoids specifics on a range of issues,
including the level of evidence required for an American to be
considered a “senior, operational” figure in al-Qaeda.

The document’s emphasis on those two words, which appear together 16
times, helps to explain the careful phrasing the administration
employed in the single case in which it intentionally killed an
American citizen in a counterterrorism strike.

Within hours after Awlaki’s death in September 2011, White House
officials described the U.S.-born cleric as “chief of external
operations” for al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen, a designation they had
not used publicly before the strike.

Officials said that Awlaki, previously portrayed mainly as a
propagandist, was directly involved in a series of plots, including
the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day in

The white paper, which was distributed confidentially to certain
lawmakers last summer, does not indicate when the underlying Justice
Department memos on targeted killings of Americans were completed.

As a result, it is unclear whether the memos were in place before the
first apparent attempt to kill Awlaki, a joint U.S.-Yemeni strike
shortly before the foiled Detroit plot in 2009.

Three other Americans have been killed in U.S. airstrikes in Yemen
since 2002, including Awlaki’s 16-year-old son. U.S. officials have
said those Americans were casualties of attacks aimed at senior
al-Qaeda operatives.

Civil liberties groups described the white paper as an example of the
kind of unchecked executive power Obama campaigned against during his
first presidential run.

“The parallels to the Bush administration torture memos are chilling,”
said Vincent Warren, executive director of the Center for
Constitutional Rights. Warren accused Obama of hypocrisy for ordering
George W. Bush administration memos to be released publicly while
maintaining secrecy around his own. To deliver on his promises of
transparency, Warren said, Obama “must release his own legal memos and
not just a Cliffs Notes version.”

White House press secretary Jay Carney emphasized that the white paper
is unclassified and indicated that the administration does not intend
to release the classified legal memo on which it is based. Asked
whether Obama would respond to demands from lawmakers that he release
the original document, Carney said, “I just have nothing for you on
alleged memos regarding potentially classified matters.”

The number of attacks on Americans is minuscule compared with the
broader toll of the drone campaign, which has killed more than 3,000
militants and civilians in hundreds of strikes in Pakistan, Yemen and

The administration has frequently described its domestic and
international legal rationales for drone strikes in general terms. The
white paper expands those justifications with specific determinations
to be made in the case of U.S. citizens.

The struggle between the administration and Congress is relatively
narrow, limited mainly to the White House’s refusal to turn over a
collection of classified memos rather than any broad-scale opposition
to the use of drone strikes or even the killing of Americans.

Most members of Congress agree with administration assertions that the
drone campaign has been essential to crippling al-Qaeda and its
ability to mount large-scale attacks against the United States.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), the chairman of the intelligence
committee that will consider Brennan’s nomination, released a
statement Tuesday indicating that she believes the release of the
white paper — which was apparently done without the consent of the
administration — should quell calls for more transparency.

The administration’s legal position “is now public and the American
people can review and judge the legality of these operations,”
Feinstein said. She has indicated she will support Brennan’s

Brennan, 57, has presided over a major expansion of the drone
campaign, although he is also credited with imposing more rigorous
internal reviews on the selection of targets. He spent 25 years at the
CIA and was considered a likely candidate for the top job in Obama’s
first term. He withdrew amid mounting opposition from civil liberties
groups that called attention to his role as a senior CIA executive
when the agency began using interrogation techniques, including
waterboarding, that were subsequently denounced as akin to torture.

Citizens’ Use of Twitter in Political Information Sharing in South Korea

Correlation analysis comparing citizens’ use of Twitter in political
information sharing online with results of public opinion polls
offline indicated: 1) the volume and magnitude of re-tweeted messages
are significantly correlated with results of public opinion polls.

Social media tools such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube are now
considered as politically transformative communication technologies as
radio and television. There are predictions that social networking
sites (SNSs) such as Facebook and Twitter will transform democracy,
allowing citizens and politicians to communicate, connect and interact
in ways never before thought possible (Grant, Moon, & Busby Grant,
2010). In Barack Obama’s Presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012, over
100 staff members worked on Twitter outreach alone (@barackobama)
(Sweet to Tweet, 2010; Campaigns Use, 2012). Current studies also show
that the number of Japanese politicians using Twitter grew from three
to 485 in under a year while in Germany, 577 politicians opened
Twitter accounts (Hong & Nadler, 2011). Increasingly, politicians and
elected officials are realizing the power of social media for
communicating political information and interacting with citizens.


A very interesting Report. The Age of the Now.

Exploring the State of the Now Twitpic

THE ROVING EYE The sound of Munich Pepe Escobar

The (geopolitical) hills are alive with the sound of ... well, not
music; rather that post-industrial noise, more Kraftwerk than
Schubert, oozing from the recently completed 49th edition of the
Munich Security Conference.

Let's start with US Vice President Joe Biden: "The United States is a
Pacific power. And the world's greatest military alliance [the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization] helps make us an Atlantic power as well.
As our new defense strategy makes clear, we will remain both a Pacific
power and an Atlantic power."

Biden also stressed that in terms of the Obama 2.0 administration's
leading from behind strategy, the "comprehensive approach" implies the
use of "a full range of tools at our disposal - including our

He even doubled down, praising the Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya
quagmires/disasters as models and implying the global war on terror
(GWOT) does, indeed, go on forever, (see Asia Times Online, January
23, 2013) as in the US "cognizant of an evolving threat posed by
[al-Qaeda] affiliates like AQAP in Yemen, al-Shabaab in Somalia, AQI
in Iraq and Syria and AQIM in North Africa".

Still, in the grand scheme of geopolitical tectonic plates colliding
in Eurasia, the future of Syria is a detail compared to the Big One:
how to breach the Wall of Mistrust between Washington and Tehran.

Any real negotiation must imperatively involve Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Khamenei - or at least someone who enjoys his unconditional

The Consequences of Intervening in Syria STRATFOR

For more than a year now, countries such as the United States, Turkey,
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and European states have been providing aid to the
Syrian rebels.

For example, there have been numerous videos released showing Syrian
rebels using weapons such as the M79 Osa rocket launcher, the RPG-22,
the M-60 recoilless rifle and the RBG-6 multiple grenade launcher. The
Syrian government has also released videos of these weapons after
seizing them in arms caches. What is so interesting about these
weapons is that they were not in the Syrian military's inventory prior
to the crisis, and they all likely were purchased from Croatia. We
have also seen many reports and photos of Syrian rebels carrying
Austrian Steyr Aug rifles, and the Swiss government has complained
that Swiss-made hand grenades sold to the United Arab Emirates are
making their way to the Syrian rebels.

This means that the current level of external intervention in Syria is
similar to the level exercised against the Soviet Union and its
communist proxies following the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan.
The external supporters are providing not only training, intelligence
and assistance, but also weapons -- exogenous weapons that make the
external provision of weapons obvious to the world.

The opposition groups that have been the most effective on the
battlefield have tended to be the jihadist-oriented groups such as
Jabhat al-Nusra. Not surprisingly, one reason for their effectiveness
was the skills and tactics they learned fighting the coalition forces
in Iraq. Yet despite this, the Saudis -- along with the Qataris and
the Emiratis -- have been arming and funding the jihadist groups in
large part because of their success on the battlefield.

The Saudi Gambit

Despite the jihadist blowback the Saudis experienced after the end of
the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan -- and the current object
lesson of the jihadists Syria sent to fight U.S. forces in Iraq now
leading groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra -- the Saudi government has
apparently calculated that its use of jihadist proxies in Syria is
worth the inherent risk.

There are some immediate benefits for Riyadh. First, the Saudis hope
to be able to break the arc of Shiite influence that reaches from Iran
through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Having lost the Sunni counterweight
to Iranian power in the region with the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq
and the installation of a Shiite-led government friendly to Iran, the
Saudis view the possibility of installing a friendly Sunni regime in
Syria as a dramatic improvement to their national security.

Supporting the jihad in Syria as a weapon against Iranian influence
also gives the Saudis a chance to burnish their Islamic credentials
internally in an effort to help stave off criticism that they are too
secular and Westernized. It allows the Saudi regime the opportunity to
show that it is helping Muslims under assault by the vicious Syrian

Supporting jihadists in Syria also gives the Saudis an opportunity to
ship their own radicals to Syria, where they can fight and possibly
die. With a large number of unemployed, underemployed and radicalized
young men, the jihad in Syria provides a pressure valve similar to the
past struggles in Iraq, Chechnya, Bosnia and Afghanistan. The Saudis
are not only trying to winnow down their own troubled youth; we have
received reports from a credible source that the Saudis are also
facilitating the travel of Yemeni men to training camps in Turkey,
where they are trained and equipped before being sent to Syria to
fight. The reports also indicate that the young men are traveling for
free and receiving a stipend for their service. These young radicals
from Saudi Arabia and Yemen will even further strengthen the jihadist
groups in Syria by providing them with fresh troops.

The Saudis are gaining temporary domestic benefits from supporting
jihad in Syria, but the conflict will not last forever, nor will it
result in the deaths of all the young men who go there to fight. This
means that someday the men who survive will come back home, and
through the process we refer to as "tactical Darwinism" the inept
fighters will have been weeded out, leaving a core of competent
militants that the Saudis will have to deal with.

But the problems posed by jihadist proxies in Syria will have effects
beyond the House of Saud. The Syrian jihadists will pose a threat to
the stability of Syria in much the same way the Afghan groups did in
the civil war they launched for control of Afghanistan after the fall
of the Najibullah regime. Indeed, the violence in Afghanistan got
worse after Najibullah's fall in 1992, and the suffering endured by
Afghan civilians in particular was egregious.

Now we are seeing that the jihadist militants in Libya pose a threat
not only to the Libyan regime -- there are serious problems in eastern
Libya -- but also to foreign interests in the country, as seen in the
attack on the British ambassador and the U.S. diplomatic mission in
Benghazi. Moreover, the events in Mali and Algeria in recent months
show that Libya-based militants and the weapons they possess also pose
a regional threat. Similar long-lasting and wide-ranging repercussions
can be expected to flow from the intervention in Syria.


Took STRATFOR an Eternity to grasp the Issue.

Syria at the mercy of Iran and Sunni extremists whose intolerance, and
hatred of the U.S., dwarfs any concerns they may have for the well-
being of Syria and its people

Saudi King Moves His Son One Step Closer to Throne

On Friday, 1 February 2013, Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz al-Saud
appointed his 63-year-old brother Prince Muqrin, the 35th son of the
kingdom’s founder King Abdul-Aziz, as second deputy prime minister.
This makes Muqrin third in line for the throne after Crown Prince
Salman bin Abdul-Aziz.But the Saudi king’s move may be construed as an
attempt to clear a path to the throne for his son Mutaib, currently
the commander of the National Guard. The famous Twitter activist
@mujtahidd told Al-Akhbar, “Abdullah is seeking to put his son Mutaib
on the throne. If he waits for the long line of Abdul-Aziz’s sons [to
pass], then his son will never reach the throne. But the king wants
his son to take the crown while he is still alive.”

Concerning the timing of the announcement, @mujtahidd said, “Abdullah
wanted to appoint him now because, in a while, it will become
unequivocally clear that Salman’s Alzheimer’s will force his
departure, after which Muqrin would be appointed as the crown prince.
The king will then appoint his son Mutaib as his second deputy.”

The handprint of a man killed by a tiger Photo Booth

Shyamnagar Satkhira, deep inside the Sundarbans Forest.Photo Booth

HSMPress ‏@HSMPRESS1 Propaganda is antithetical to the true aim of
journalism & thus the need for journalistic guerrilla warfare to
counter it; enter Jihadnalism

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade

Euro 1.3578
Dollar Index 79.59
Japan Yen 93.94 Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he will
step down on March 19, almost three weeks before his term is due to
Swiss Franc 0.9086
Pound 1.5655
Aussie 1.0346 Retail sales in Australia fell 0.2 percent in December
from the previous month lowest level since Dec. 27.
India Rupee 53.082 touched a 16 week High of 52.90 today
South Korea Won 1090.60 currency touched 1,098.25 on Feb. 1, the
weakest level since October
Brazil Real 1.9842
Egypt Pound 6.7035
South Africa Rand 8.8445

The yen tumbled 17 percent over the past three months, the biggest
decline among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro gained 5.3 percent, and the
dollar lost 1.3 percent during the same period.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 93.937 Last  the lowest since May 2010

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he will step down on
March 19, almost three weeks before his term is due to end.

“The new BOJ governor is expected to be someone who will push easing
hard,” said Masato Yanagiya, the head of currency and money trading in
New York at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp


The 100 Prediction might happen in Q1-

Nikkei 225 ^N225 1 Year Chart Yahoo Finance at a 34 Month High Inverse
Correlation to the Yen

11,469.52 Up 422.60(3.83%) -> This is a 34 Month Closing High

Euro Yen 3 Month Chart INO 127.536 Last  weakest since April 2010

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3577 Last


I remain Bullish The Euro.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.591 Last

Nikkei 225 Ftse and SandP 1 Year Chart Yahoo Finance

read more

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 96.65 Last

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1672.30 Last

A 1932 Picasso painting of his lover Marie-Therese Walter sold for a
top price of 28.6 million pounds ($44.8 million) with fees at

"Femme assise pres d'une fenetre," (1932) by Pablo Picasso. This
painting of his mistress Marie-Therese Walter was sold in Sotheby’s
auction of Impressionist, modern and Surrealist art in London on Feb.
5 for 28.6 million pounds ($44.8 million), the top price of the
evening. Source: Sotheby's via Bloomberg.

"Liebespaar (Selbstdarstellung mit Wally)" (Lovers - Self-portrait with Wally)

, a 1914/15 gouache, watercolour and pencil on paper work by Egon
Schiele. It was sold by the Leopold Museum, Vienna, at a Sotheby's
auction of Impressionist and modern art in London on Feb. 5. The
drawing was estimated at 6.5 million pounds to 8.5 million pounds and
sold for 7.9 million pounds ($12.4 million). Source: Sotheby's via

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Affluent Iranians seeking a safe investment for their savings, are buying up urban property almost as fast as gold Guardian
Emerging Markets

Affluent Iranians, seeking a safe investment for their savings, are
buying up urban property almost as fast as gold, further accelerating
the already breakneck speed of construction. Speculators scour
desirable neighbourhoods for lucrative parcels of land, and in north
Tehran, apartment buildings no more than a decade old are often torn
down to make room for luxurious high-rises catering to the rising
standards of wealthy urbanites. In a stagnating economy where real
estate is one of the few sectors moving, it is not unusual for
property to change hands several times a year.

"Buyers flip it [sell a property] within six months or so for a big
profit and the new buyer would do the same only a few months later,"
says Cyrus Tahmassebi, the former chief economist for Ashland Oil.


Real Estate is a Safe Haven and a Store of Value.


read more

IFC Debut Nigerian Bond Sale Garners Demand Twice Offered Bloomberg

The International Finance Corp. raised the size of its debut Nigerian
local-currency bond sale to 12 billion naira ($76.3 million) after
investors sought more than twice the amount initially offered amid
pent-up demand for debt of Africa’s biggest oil producer.

The World Bank unit planned to issue 8 billion naira and increased the
amount after orders came in at 20 billion naira, Jingdong Hua,
vice-president and treasurer at the IFC, said in a phone interview
from Washington yesterday. The “Naija” bonds, which will be listed on
the Nigerian Stock Exchange and mature in February 2018, were sold
with a 10.2 percent coupon, he said.

Nigeria’s bond yields have dropped to record lows as JPMorgan Chase &
Co., the world’s biggest underwriter of emerging-market debt, added
the securities to its benchmark GBI- EM index in October. Barclays Plc
will add Nigerian debt to its local-currency government bond index
next month.

“Nigeria has seen a lot of interest,” Stuart Culverhouse, chief
economist at London-based brokerage Exotix Ltd., said in a phone
interview from London yesterday. “A lot of investors can’t do local
currency” and “because it’s an international issuer it would reduce
some investor concerns about accessing the local market directly and
gives them another way of getting exposure,” he said.

The value of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for Sub-Saharan African
(SSA) targets rose by 18 per cent to $25 billion (Sh2.2 trillion) last

About half or $12 billion worth of the deals targeted South African
companies, said Thomson Reuters Deals Intelligence report on
Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Banking Analysis (2012) released

“The next most targeted nations were Nigeria and DR Congo. South
Africa and The United Kingdom were the most acquisitive nations during
2012, accounting for 39 per cent and 22 per cent of Sub-Saharan Africa
target M&A, respectively,” said Thomson Reuters Managing Director for
Africa Keith Nichols.

JP Morgan topped the SSA fee rankings for 2012, with a 10.5 per cent
cut of the fees while Citi and Bank of America Merrill Lynch followed
in second and third positions respectively.

Mr Nichols noted that Equity Capital Markets (ECM) issuance reached
$4.8 billion during 2012 to finish 15 per cent down on 2011 when it
was $5.6 billion, marking the slowest year for SSA ECM activity since

Morgan Stanley topped the 2012 SSA ECM ranking with 22 per cent of the market.

SSA debt issuance reached $11.8 billion from 29 issues during 2012, a
four per cent decline from 2011.

Government & Agencies was the most active sector during 2012,
accounting for 85 per cent of the market. Issuance from the Financials
sector accounted for a third of the market.

The largest SSA bond issued during 2012 was a South African government
bond worth $1.5 billion.

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 8.8410 Last

I remain bearish and expect a Sustainable move over 9.00.

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.7039 Last

Headed over 7.00.

read more

Kenya: Transcript of President Obama's Message to the People of Kenya United States Embassy (Nairobi)
Kenyan Economy

Habari yako. Over the years, I have been greatly moved by the warmth
and spirit - the strength and resolve - of the Kenyan people. And I've
been grateful for my connection to Kenya, and the way you've welcomed
me and my family to your beautiful country - from my father's village
in Alego, to bustling Nairobi.

In my visits, I've seen your progress. Kenya has lifted people from
poverty, built an emerging democracy and civil society, and sustained
a spirit of hope in the face of great difficulty. After the turmoil of
five years ago, you've worked to rebuild communities, reform
institutions and pass a new constitution.

Now, Kenya must take the next step in March, with the first national
elections under your new constitution.

We all know what makes for successful elections. Kenya must reject
intimidation and violence, and allow a free and fair vote. Kenyans
must resolve disputes in the courts, not in the streets. Above all,
the people of Kenya must come together, before and after the election,
to carry on the work of building your country.

The choice of who will lead Kenya is up to the Kenyan people. The
United States does not endorse any candidate for office, but we do
support an election that is peaceful and reflects the will of the

This election can be another milestone toward a truly democratic Kenya
defined by the rule of law and strong institutions. If you take that
step, and reject a path of violence and division, then Kenya can move
forward towards prosperity and opportunity that unleashes the
extraordinary talents of your people - especially young people. If you
continue to move forward, you can build a just Kenya that rejects
corruption, and respects the rights and dignity of all Kenyans.

This is a moment for the people of Kenya to come together, instead of
tearing apart. If you do, you can show the world that you are not just
a member of a tribe or ethnic group, but citizens of a great and proud
nation. I can't imagine a better way to mark the 50th anniversary of
Kenyan independence. And I say to all of you who are willing to walk
this path of progress-you will continue to have a strong friend and
partner in the United States of America. Kwaheri

“The UK will remain impartial. What is important to us is not who wins
the general election but how he wins the polls” Dr. @HCCTurner
Christian Turner

The High Commissioner was a Spectacular Guest at #Mindspeak RICH TV

Diplomacy is Darwinian @HCCTurner #Mindspeak Twitpic

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

EABL share Price data +15.471% 2013 Record All Time Closing High

ScanGroup share price data +5.109% 2013 is at a Record High

Kenya Electricity KENGEN share price data here +35.795% 2013 best
performing share at the Exchange in 2013

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.2466% in 2013

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +8.46% in 2013

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

read more

N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.81 points to close at 105.39.
The Nairobi All Share is +11.100569% so far this Year.
The All Share is targetting its 2013 High of 16th January and is 0.66%
below that High.
The Nairobi ^NSE20 rallied 71.75 points to close at 4522.53.
The ^NSE20 is +9.412% in 2013 and just 11 points off its 2 Year
Closing High from 16th January.
Equity Turnover was 452.271m.
EABL +15.849% and Kenya Commercial Bank +16.806% set Fresh All Time
Closing Highs.
ScanGroup, City Trust and Diamond Trust are at all time Closing Highs.
Fastjet had its licenses recalled by Fly 540 which is bullish for Kenya Airways.
The Comments yesterday from President Barack Obama and The British
High Commissioner Dr. Christian Turner were bullish for the Equity
We have been in a Bull Market since May 2012 and this Move is once
again gathering Traction and Speed.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Rea Vipingo rallied 3.75% to close at 20.75 and traded 6,300 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom closed unchanged at 5.40 and traded a 5.40-5.50 range and
3.453m shares worth 18.722m. Safaricom is +6.93% in 2013 and has
corrected 6.89% off its 9th January Closing High of 5.80. The Sell
Side Supply has thinned out now and I expect a Snap Higher towards
5.80 reasonably sharpish.

Kenya Airways firmed 0.46% to close at 10.90 and was trading at 11.00
+1.38% session Highs at the Closing Bell. Kenya Airways traded 200,500
shares. During the Session I received a Notification from
LutherPendragon in London that ''Five Forty Aviation Ltd announces
that it has withdrawn the licences it had granted to FastJet's
operations in Angola, Ghana and Tanzania to use the Fly540 brand with
immediate effect. This is due to the failure on the part of FastJet’s
Africa Operations to comply with the respective licence agreements
signed with the Company.'' The Competitor Threat had been pressurising
a very oversold Kenya Airways share Price. I have previously stated
that FastJet's Arrival whilst hyped very effectively was in my view
overblown. I expect a sharp Recovery in Kenya Airways's share price
once this FastJet news is properly digested. kenya Airways also
received permission for an ESOP Scheme today from the CMA and this
will surely assist in Employee Retention and Incentivisation.

The Entire Announcement from LutherPendragon is below

Five Forty Aviation Ltd announces that it has withdrawn the licences
it had granted to FastJet's operations in Angola, Ghana and Tanzania
to use the Fly540 brand with immediate effect. This is due to the
failure on the part of FastJet’s Africa Operations to comply with the
respective licence agreements signed with the Company.

 Specifically, the conditions that are not being adhered to are as follows:

 1.      Payment of outstanding licence and other fees of US$6.9m,
US$0.5m and US$0.3m for Fly540 Tanzania, Fly540 Angola and Fly540
Ghana respectively as well as failure to disclose financial
information for December 2012

2.      Contrary to the licence agreement and despite several
reminders, FastJet’s Africa Operations have not provided information
to the Company’s Head of Safety to demonstrate compliance with Five
Forty Aviation’s accepted safety systems

3.      Failure to provide the Company’s Quality Manager with reports
demonstrating that the quality systems are in operation

 ScanGroup closed unchanged at 72.00 which is an All Time Closing High
reached yesterday. ScanGroup was trading at 73.00 +1.39% at the Finish
Line. ScanGroup traded 159,600 shares.

Marshalls East Africa was low ticked 9.54% to close at 12.80 on just

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank rallied 1.46% to close at 34.75 a Fresh All Time
closing High. Kenya Commercial Bank was the most actively traded share
with 4.716m shares worth 164.391m changing hands. Kenya Commercial
Bank is +16.806% in 2013. Kenya Commercial Bank traded a Session High
of 35.00 +2.19% which is also an All Time Intra Day High. Kenya
Commercial Bank looks set to run up to 40.00. Kenya Commercial Bank
trades on a Trailing PE of 9.386 and accelerated Q3 2012 PAT +45.665%.

Kenya Commercial Bank share price data and Earnings Releases here
+16.806% in 2013 Record Closing High

Diamond Trust traded 3rd at the Exchange. Diamond Trust rallied
6.1066% to close at 139.00 and this matches its all time Closing High
from the 16th of January this Year. Diamond Trust traded a
132.00-144.00 range where todays Intra Day Session high of 144.00 was
also an All Time Intra Day high Print. Diamond Trust is +20.869% in
2013. Diamond Trust traded 294,000 shares worth 40.91m.

Diamond Trust share price data here +20.869% 2013 matched an All time
High from 16th January this Year.

Equity Bank firmed 0.93% to close at 27.00 and traded 529,500 shares
worth 14.335m. Equity Bank is +13.684% in 2013.
COOP Bank traded 4th at the Exchange and firmed 0.38% to close at
13.25 and traded 1.960m shares worth 25.975m.
Barclays Bank improved 0.31% to close at 16.20 and traded 1.211m
shares worth 19.633m.
Standard Chartered improved a shilling to close at 265.00 and traded
4,000 shares. There is hardly any supply and a sharp move higher

City Trust improved 0.22% to close at 465.00 and match an All Time
Closing High from the 30th of January. City Trust is the subject of a
Reverse Merger with I and M Bank.

City Trust share price data and Merger Details here +19.23% 2013 and
at a Record high

Housing Finance firmed 2.79% to close at 18.40 and was trading at
18.75 +4.75% session highs at the Closing Bell. HFCK traded 80,200

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL firmed 0.325% to close at 307.00 [The Weighted Average was 307.99
and is rounded down] which is a Fresh All Time Closing High. EABL
traded a 306.00-309.00 range and 257,100 shares worth 79.183m. EABL
has set a Succession of All Time Closing Highs in 2013 and is +15.849%
in 2013. EABL trades on  a Trailing PE of 22.808 ahead of its H1
Earnings Release. Investors gained Visibility on those Earnings via
Diageo's Earnings Release where Beer looked robust whilst Spirits
slowed off its very elevated FY Run Rate. The Leverage taken on around
the Tanzania Purchase might crimp Earnings a little. However,
Valuations of similar Equity World Wide has soared over the last few
months and EABL remains extremely attractive on a comparative Basis. I
expect Investors to look through the Noise and the Price to run
another 10% higher without much trouble.

EABL share price data here +15.849% and at a Record Closing High

BAT Kenya was the 5th most actively traded share at the Exchange. BAT
rallied 1.5377% to close at 529.00 and traded 46,900 shares worth
24.856m. BAT is +7.302% in 2013 and is 2.037% below its All Time
Closing High of 540.00 reached 14th through 18th January this Year.
BAT traded on a Trailing PE of 17.1078.

KenGen rallied 4.814% to close at 12.45 and was trading at 12.70
+6.28% at the Finish Line. KenGen is the best performing Stock at the
Nairobi Securities Exchange in 2013 and has rallied +41.477% in 2013.
KenGen traded 349,200 shares.

KenGen share price data +41.477% 2013

Kenya Power KPLC rallied 2.78% to close at 18.45 and traded 489,800 shares.

Athi River Mining firmed 1.801% to close at 56.50 and was trading at
59.00 +6.31% Session Highs at the Closing Bell. ARM traded 101,200
shares. ARM is +26.681% in 2013 and since the Stock was split 5 for
every 1 held.
Bamburi Cement ticked 2.955% higher to close at 209.00 and traded just
2,100 shares. There was Buy Side Demand for 5,228% more shares at the
Finish Line than were traded during the Session.
Portland eased 1.11% to close at 43.50 and traded 1,600 shares.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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February 2013

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