|Thursday 07th of February 2013
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
#Mindspeak Session 16th February Guest is @JohnGithongo Esquire @InterConNairobi
Who is Kenya's Traceur The Star
The Nairobi All Share has been on a Roll and was +9.73% in January but
the Point to note is that it is still below Levels seen in Q4 2007 so
There is Plenty of Head Room. Those hoping [and There are Plenty] for
a Sell-Off in order to get into the Stock Market are just not going to
get it. I meet so many Folks who tell me but the Stock Market always
falls before the Election. When Everyone is thinking one thing in the
Markets, I have found, the very opposite happens. And the Risk is for
these Folks, That the Election goes well, and They will be chasing a
Rocketship on its way to Mars [Don't Stop Me Now Queen 44,326,111
Views on YouTube].
Don't Stop Me Now Queen YouTube
Father told me Memedi passed away. Memedi worked forever for us in
Mombasa. He was ever so slight, a will of the wisp [and His Other Half
I once discovered was really very large]. Its really quite depressing
actually when Folks who have been fixtures in Your Life for Eternity
suddenly stop being fixtures, its as if the Earth has suddenly become
fluid and fast moving and one becomes a little short of Breath. It was
particularly disconcerting when we went to visit my Mother and the
Caretaker at the Cemetary started pointing at a number of Graves and
'Everyone is falling like Flies.'
Mombasa Island Twitpic
The Sea Front Mombasa #Kenya Purveyors of Coconuts Cassava Twitpic
Wilhelmina Bay (64.6775° S, 62.0567° W) Photo Booth
Wilhelmina Bay (64.6775° S, 62.0567° W). On our second day on the
Antarctic Peninsula, the water was placid, clear and as reflective as
a piece of glass. With such good visibility, it was easier to glimpse
the portions of icebergs that sit beneath the surface.
Kenya 2013 General Election: 7 Point Minimum Scenarios via @MutahiNgunyi YouTube
Law & Politics
A Lot of People are calculating the Outcome on this Basis.
@IpsossynovateKe 25-JAN-2013 Presidential race too close to call – an
The Science of Polling
And if you dig deep into Ipsos’ report you will note that they have
considered the skew. In fact, The biggest unknown known Skew in my
opinion is how many Kalenjin voters Ruto will convert into votes for
Uhuru Kenyatta at the presidential ballot. Another point to consider
is this. We have a massive demographic bulge of first time voters.
Margaret Ireri and others have characterised them as generation Y. It
would be interesting to know just how monolithic they are?
What the Intelligence Community Is Doing With Big Data Businessweek
What if the government could know the future?
It’s trying. Armed with billions of tweets, Google (GOOG) searches,
Facebook (FB) posts, and other publicly available social-media and
online data, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence is
sponsoring research projects involving 14 universities in the United
States, Europe, and Israel with the goal of using advanced analytics
to predict significant societal events.
“Our focus is to beat the news with greater accuracy and to do it
faster by combining [various sets of] data, and we are seeing that it
is possible,” said Jason Matheny, program manager of the Open Source
Indicators program, which is housed within the Intelligence Advanced
Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, the government’s intelligence
research incubator. (Think DARPA, but for intelligence.)
This is an ambitious goal. Even nerd savant Nate Silver has yet to
predict the likeliness of a popular revolt toppling a government, a
deadly disease outbreak, a sudden currency collapse, or war. Still,
the recent explosion in data analytics ushered in by the social-media
era holds huge promise for making increasingly accurate predictions
about the future, says Thomas Malone, director of the Center for
Collective Intelligence at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and
author of The Future of Work. But, he cautions, “it’s not magic. There
are a lot of things about the future that are essentially unknowable.”
Matheny, too, understands the limitations of predictive analytics.
That’s part of the point. At the end of the government’s three-year
research program, he says, they hope to know with more certainty just
what is predictable—that is, what categories of events are relatively
It would also help the organization know what isn’t foreseeable at
all. In other words, they are tackling Donald Rumsfeld’s infamous
“unknown unknowns” problem. If you know what you can predict, then you
can predict it; if you know what you can’t predict, you can make other
Exploring the State of the Now Twitpic
Pentagon: U.S. Navy Carrier Fleet Cut To One In Gulf DefenceNews
Faced with budget woes, the U.S. Navy has indefinitely postponed the
deployment of the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, the Defense
Department announced Feb. 6. The move drops the number of aircraft
carriers deployed in 5th Fleet from two to one.
“This is the first adjustment of what will be, I think, a series of
adjustments across the services as we try to preserve our readiness
for as long as possible,” said Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of
the Joint Chiefs, in an interview.
Since 2010, two carriers have been deployed to the Persian Gulf for
most of the year, an operational tempo that has strained the fleet and
which top Navy officials had hoped to reduce last fall. It is not
clear if the carrier presence drop will be temporary or permanent, but
it is sure to reduce the mission load on the carrier fleet.
Fleet Forces Command spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Brian Badura said that the
deployment of aircraft carrier Truman and its escort, the cruiser
Gettysburg, had been “delayed indefinitely.”
The John C. Stennis CSG, which deployed in late August, has been the
only carrier force in the region since December, when the Eisenhower
Carrier Strike Group returned home for repairs.
A U.S. Predator unmanned drone armed with a missile stands on the
tarmac of Kandahar military airport, June 13, 2010. REUTERS/Massoud
Gen. Carter Ham: Members of al Qaida group among Benghazi attackers
CAIRO — The attackers who killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and
three other Americans last September in Benghazi, Libya, represented a
variety of Islamist groups and were motivated by a myriad of factors,
the top Libyan official investigating the case has told McClatchy.
They almost certainly included members of al Qaida in the Islamic
Maghreb, the North Africa affiliate of al Qaida, which the French now
are confronting in northern Mali, Army Gen. Carter Ham, the head of
the U.S. military’s Africa Command, said in a separate interview.
The two descriptions of what took place underscore the complexity of
the threat posed by restive Islamist groups that suddenly found space
to grow and expand after the collapse of the government of Libyan
leader Moammar Gadhafi, whom Libyan rebels killed in October 2011
after a months-long NATO-led bombing campaign.
“I believe there are individuals who participated in the attacks in
Benghazi who had at least some affiliation with AQIM,” Ham told
McClatchy. “I don’t interpret from that that this was AQIM-directed or
even an AQIM-inspired or -supported effort. But the connection is
there. And I think that what I am wrestling with is: What is the
connection with all these various individuals or groups?”
Col. Abdel Salem Ashour, who heads the Libyan Interior Ministry’s
criminal investigations department, said he now thought the attack was
hastily planned by smaller groups whose membership comprised different
nationalities. He said the attack wasn’t well organized but that with
the Libyan government essentially without forces in eastern Libya, it
didn’t need to be.
“Islamist groups have their own agendas, and they have the ability to
gather and mobilize. They exploit the lack of security,” he said.
Ashour said the case had been turned over to a judge in Tripoli,
suggesting that suspects have been identified. But he emphasized that
nearly five months after the attack, no arrests have been made.
The assault has spurred several U.S. congressional investigations into
why the two American compounds in Benghazi, one of which generally is
referred to as the consulate and the other of which housed the CIA
station in eastern Libya, were so poorly defended. Stevens and State
Department computer expert Sean Smith died when the consulate was
overrun and set on fire. Two former Navy SEALs who were working as
security contractors for the CIA, Glen Doherty and Tyrone Woods, died
hours later when the attackers fired mortar rounds at the CIA
How to anticipate attacks when so many groups may be involved is a
challenge, Ham said. It’s unclear how many groups exist in the
ungoverned reaches of eastern Libya and in other parts of North
Africa, including northern Mali. The links between the groups are also
unclear, though it’s certain that weapons are being passed from Libya
to northern Mali and Egypt, Ham said.
Determining what motivated the Benghazi attack is one issue that Ham
and Libyan investigators are still struggling with.
Ham and Ashour said they thought that anger over the killing of a top
al Qaida official, Abu Yahya al Libi, by a U.S. drone strike in
Pakistan was one factor. Al Qaida leader Ayman al Zawahiri had
confirmed al Libi’s death in a video aired the day before the Benghazi
“There are some indications that was part of the motivation for some
of those who participated in the attack. Whether it was the compelling
reason or not, I think, is hard to say,” Ham said.
At the same time, protests had broken out in Egypt hours before the
assault over an inflammatory video produced by Egyptian exiles living
in the United States that insulted the Prophet Muhammad. Ashour said
that was the motivation for smaller groups that planned the attack on
“Each group used (the assault) for its own interests,” Ashour said.
“One used it for the film and another used it for the leader that was
killed. And there were other thieves who used it for the sake of
Ham acknowledged that the fall of Gadhafi played a role in creating
space for many Islamist groups to thrive.
“When the Gadhafi regime collapsed, and there was, essentially, for a
period of time no governmental control, it was in that environment
that extremist organizations and criminal organizations took advantage
of that situation to establish themselves and in some cases
re-establish themselves,” Ham said.
He said he was optimistic that the Libyan government would be able to
exert control eventually.
“It’s probably premature to say the expansion of extremist groups has
been arrested,” he said. “I think it is a matter of time before Libya
is able to reverse the trend. But this is going to be difficult.”
The Point is that The Al-Qaeda Genie was let out of the Box and
essentially given Free Rein in Libya in order to topple Muammar
How exactly does an attack on an undefended gas facility in the
remotest depths of the Algerian desert become an "existential threat"
to our "way of life"? CNN
In not one nation in the Muslim world since 9/11 has a jihadist
militant group seized control of a country. And al Qaeda and its
allies' record of effective attacks in the West has been non-existent
since 2005. With threats like these we can all sleep soundly at night.
The murder of Shokri Belaid is a sign that Tunisia’s 'Jasmine
Revolution' is turning dark Robert Fisk
Blood spattered on Tunisia’s supposedly gentle “Jasmine Revolution”
yesterday when Shokri Belaid became its most important martyr, shot
down outside his home in Tunis and pronounced dead with four bullets
in his body, fired – by who?
A leading member of the opposition Popular Front coalition, he was not
short of enemies; Belaid had been threatened countless times and a
meeting he addressed at the weekend had been broken up by unidentified
gangs. He had often accused Rachid Ghannouchi’s Ennahda party, which
leads the Islamist-style government, of inciting violence.
The crowds which poured into the streets as Belaid’s body was brought
by ambulance screamed out what has become the staple demand of all
Arab revolutions – “the people want the fall of the regime” – but this
time they were talking about Ghannouchi and his comrades rather than
dictator Zin El Abdine Ben Ali who fled the country two years ago.
And the recorded speeches of Belaid – an eloquent lawyer – will be
replayed over the coming weeks. Was it not he who said that “there are
groups within Ennahda inciting violence” and that “all those who
oppose Ennahda become the targets of violence”?
President Moncef Marzouki, a secularist within the coalition, was due
to address the European Parliament in Strasbourg when news of the
assassination reached him. “Shokri Belaid was murdered this very
morning knowing I was going to speak to you,” he said. “This is a
message being sent to us which we refuse to accept. We will reject
that message – and will continue to unmask the enemies of the state.”
If we take 1848–51 as a template, the crucial moments of reaction lie
ahead: coups, crackdowns, intelligence-led disruption via
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Dollar Index 79.67
Japan Yen 93.69
Swiss Franc 0.9084
India Rupee 53.185
South Korea Won 1090.00
Brazil Real 1.9879
Egypt Pound 6.7109
South Africa Rand 8.8880
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3560 Last [I remain Bullish]
Euro has more room to run, despite gains this year Reuters
"It is no longer taboo to be positive on the euro," said Axel Merk,
chief investment officer at Merk Funds in Palo Alto, California.
Merk, who oversees $640 million, said he has been "very long" the euro
since August 2012, when ECB President Mario Draghi promised to do
whatever it takes to save the euro. Merk said it could reach near
$1.50, the 2011 high.
Banks in Europe have begun early repayment of long-term loans from the
central bank. As a result, the ECB's balance sheet has shrunk to the
lowest since February 2012, even as the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of
Japan and Bank of England continue to expand their balance sheet.
"The ECB is mopping up liquidity while the Fed, BoJ and BoE are
printing money, so the long-term trend of euro appreciation is
unstoppable," Merk said.
Jen, who declined to disclose his firm's position, said his study
showed that an overvalued euro is "not very damaging" to the euro zone
because two-thirds of European countries' trade is with each other.
“We designed a parcours” Super Mario: The Euro's Saviour MONDAY,
SEPTEMBER 10, 2012 - 00:00 -- BY ALY KHAN SATCHU
He came up with a plan which can work and he has an air about him
which is persuasive and compelling. The triple bottom line is that
this is not a fellow to bet against. The Euro rallied sharply last
week as he outlined his programme called outright monetary
transactions as those betting against the Euro ran for the hills and
covered their shorts.
“We designed a parcours, a road, and it’s in the hands of the
governments” Draghi said.
He said the programme “will enable us to address severe distortions in
government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded
fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the Euro. Under
appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to
avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for
price stability in the Euro area.”
What Draghi has done is remove the tail risk from the Euro Area.
Dollar Yen 5 Day Chart INO 93.78
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.62 Last
Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 96.54 Last
Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1677.93 Last
Jeanne Hebuterne (au Chapeau) (1919) by Amedeo Modigliani, a painting
of the artist's common-law wife sold for $42.1 million Christie's
Images Ltd. 2013 via Bloomberg
“Jeanne Hebuterne (au chapeau),” showed the common-law wife of Amedeo
Modigliani. The Italian painter died destitute, at the age of 35, in
1920. A grief-stricken Hebuterne committed suicide the following day,
killing their unborn child.
Coya Is Zagat's Hottest Restaurant WSJ
Perhaps it should be no surprise that, earlier this month, the Zagat
Guide adjudged the hottest restaurant anywhere in the world to be in
London. What does raise eyebrows, though, is that it chose Coya, the
two-month-old, Peruvian-inspired basement restaurant in Mayfair, whose
head chef isn't Peruvian and has only spent a couple of weeks in Peru.
Still, the end result is impressive.
The other starters were gambas (crispy tiger prawns with a different
marinade of chili and lime, which were light, thanks to their tempura
cooking style), plus skewers of ox heart with parsley and rocoto
African Investor Takes Silicon Valley Tough Love to Kenya Businessweek
Mbwana Alliy is sitting in a conference room in a Nairobi, Kenya, tech
center, an Apple MacBook close by. He’s interviewing Toni Maraviglia,
the chief executive officer of MPrep, a company that allows African
teachers to administer homework assignments via text message. Alliy,
31, runs a venture capital firm called Savannah Fund, and Maraviglia
wants him to invest in MPrep.
“Are you a social entrepreneur?” Alliy asks. “It’s a trick question.”
He is concerned that MPrep has foundation funding -- it doesn’t -- and
the Stanford University-trained venture capitalist says he’s wary of
such businesses because they have too little incentive to grow and
make profits. Maraviglia, an American who moved to Nairobi to start up
MPrep, gets the hint. She says no, MPrep is a real company that wants
to give investors a return, Bloomberg Markets magazine will report in
its March issue.
“OK, good,” he says. “But you’re going to make your money off
teachers? Think about that. Can teachers afford this? Who should you
be targeting instead?”
He passes on the investment, for the time being.
Alliy spends his days talking to budding entrepreneurs about term
sheets, capital structure and other basics of corporate governance.
“One startup asked me, ‘What is a board? Why do you need a board?’” he
says. “We spent an hour and a half going through that.”
Many of those who come to him have been operating on grants from
charitable groups such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and have
little concept of how to make a profit.
Alliy’s first investment was in BiNu Pty, an Australia- based company
that developed a program that strips down smartphone applications so
they work on the very basic phones that most Africans carry. He put in
an undisclosed amount of money himself and helped raise a total of
$1.5 million in a first round of funding.
Alliy has also started a so-called accelerator program through the
Savannah Fund that gives entrepreneurs management advice and a small
amount of cash in exchange for a 15 percent equity stake. The program
has helped launch three companies: Ahonya.com Ltd., a Ghanaian
enterprise that aims to be the Amazon.com of Africa; Kola Studios, a
mobile-game developer in Uganda; and Kenya-based SafariDesk, which
helps plan African vacations.
In his determination to succeed, Alliy spends countless hours working
for no pay -- calling prospective investors in the U.S., mentoring
entrepreneurs even after he has rejected them for funding and
gathering market data. He had to interview local retailers himself to
learn which is the most popular smartphone in Kenya: It’s the N3 from
Hong Kong-based Tecno Telecom Ltd., running on Android.
A Much more honest Appraisal of the Landscape than some of the gushing
PR Puff Pieces.
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +11.100569% 2013
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +9.412% in 2013
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
Time Running out to Save Elephants from Ivory Trade Iain
Douglas-Hamilton of Save the Elephants
The new wave of killing of elephants in Africa is in many ways far
graver than the crisis of the 1970s and 80s. Firstly there are fewer
elephants, and secondly the demand for ivory is far higher. Record
ivory prices in the Far East are fueling poachers, organized crime,
and political instability right across the African elephant range. And
the situation shows no sign of calming.
Elephant populations across Africa have been falling like dominoes.
The once widespread elephants of West Africa–such as the fabled herds
of the Ivory Coast–disappeared into tiny, isolated pockets long ago.
Central Africa’s elephants seemed more secure as recently as the 1980s
when they were thought to constitute more than half of the continent’s
population and to be a vast repository that could withstand an ivory
It took years for scientists to penetrate the forests and accumulate
reliable facts on the elusive forest elephants that inhabit them.
Populations there had entered a steep decline, which I believe started
in the 1970s. By the first decade of the 21st century vast areas of
forest had been emptied of elephants. Their range has now shrunk to a
tiny fraction of its previous extent, and the animals that remain are
under acute threat. Notorious armed groups like Darfur’s Janjaweed and
the Lord’s Resistance Army are financing their operations by preying
on the few survivors. The central African domino has toppled.
Its just a Tragedy.
The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.84 points to close at 106.23.
The Nairobi All Share has closed at a Fresh 2013 and 5+ Year High.
The Nairobi All Share is +11.986% in 2013.
The Nairobi ^NSE20 Index rallied 38.63 points to close at 4561.16.
The ^NSE20 Index is +10.355% and this is a 25 Month High.
This was a Monster Session at the Securities Exchange with Equity
Turnover of 2.143b shillings which is the busiest Session I can recall
for a very long time.
Athi River Mining traded 14.447m shares worth 872.076m and rallied
6.19% to an All Time High.
Kenya Commercial Bank traded 16.467m shares and closed at an All Time High.
ScanGroup closed at a Fresh All Time High.
The Extreme Heavy Volume Session and the the sharp Rally today and
since the Start of the Year affirm the Bona Fides of what is a Bull
Market plain and simple.
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
Safaricom closed unchanged at 5.40 and traded a 5.40-5.50 range and
36.267m shares worth 197.052m. Safaricom was trading at 5.45 +0.93%
for good size at the Closing Bell. Safaricom is +6.9306% in 2013 and
will rebound towards its August 2010 Highs of 5.80 reached on the 9th
of January this Year. Safaricom trades on a Trailing PE of 16.875.
Safaricom share price data +6.9306% 2013
ScanGroup rallied 2.08% to close at 73.50 and a Fresh All Time Closing
High. ScanGroup is +7.299% in 2013 and traded 27,700 shares. There was
Buy Side Demand for 681% more shares than were traded during the
Session. ScanGroup trades on a Trailing PE of 28.82 and 80.00 looks
achievable on momentum alone.
ScanGroup share price data here +7.299% 2013 and at a Record Closing High
Car and General rallied 8.333% to close at 26.00 and traded 1,100 shares.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 0.72% to close at 35.00 and set a Fresh
All Time Closing High. Kenya Commercial Bank is +17.647% in 2013 and
today traded 16.467m shares worth 576.353m. Kenya Commercial Bank
trades on a Trailing PE of 9.408 and accelerated Q3 PAT Earnings
Kenya Commercial Bank share Price data here +17.647% 2013 and a Record
Standard Chartered rallied 1.512% to close at 269.00 and traded 9,900
shares. Standard Chartered is +14.468% in 2013 and this is a 23 Month
Closing High. Standard Chartered trades on a 13.602 Trailing PE and
accelerated Q3 2012 PAT +66.622%, which makes the Forward PE
Standard Chartered share price data here +14.468% 2013 23 Month High
Q3 Profit and Loss after Tax and Exceptional Items 6.428108b versus
CFC StanBic Bank rallied 5.263% to close at 45.00 and traded 38,400 shares.
Barclays Bank firmed 0.93% to close at 16.35 and traded 2.128m shares
worth 34.825m. Barclays Bank is +3.809% in 2013 and trades on a
Trailing PE of 11.0013.
Equity Bank firmed 0.93% to close at 27.25 and traded 1.17m shares
worth 31.906m. Equity Bank is 14.7368% in 2013 and has matched a 22
Month Closing High set on the 16th of January this Year. Equity Bank
trades on a Trailing PE of 9.767.
NIC Bank rallied 4.07% to close at 44.75 and just 0.55% below an All
Time Closing High reached on the 17th and 18th of last month. NIC Bank
traded 246,100 shares worth 11.030m. NIC Bank is +16.9934% in 2013.
Housing Finance rallied 4.35% to close at 19.20 and traded 126,800
shares worth 2.435m. Housing Finance is +24.27% in 2013 and this is a
17 Month Closing High. Housing Finance trades on a 7.111 Trailing PE.
Housing Finance share Price data +24.27% 2013 17 Month Closing High
Centum firmed 1.84% to close at 13.80 and traded 400,100 shares.
Centum is +11.74% in 2013 and trades on a 7.72 Trailing PE Ratio.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
Athi River Mining rallied 6.19% to close at 60.00 and a Fresh All Time
Closing High. ARM has rallied +34.529% in 2013 and since its shares
were split 5 for every 1 held. Athi River Mining traded 14.447m shares
worth 872.076m and some 40.6922% of the Total Turnover traded today in
what was a Monster Session. Athi River Mining trades on a 26.217
Trailing PE and such a High Volume and aggressive Move higher is
Athi River Mining share price data +34.529% 2013 and a Record Closing High
Bamburi Cement rallied 2.87% to close at 215.00 a 29 Month High.
Bamburi Cement is 16.261% in 2013. Bamburi Cement traded 391,700
shares worth 84.437m. Bamburi Cement trades on a 14.889 Trailing PE.
Bamburi Cement share price data here +16.261% 2013 29 Month High
Portland Cement improved 1.15% to close at 44.00 on light trading of
EABL traded 3rd at the Exchange and closed unchanged at 307.00 which
is a Record High. EABL traded a 307.00-309.00 range and 730,000 shares
worth 224.592m. EABL is +15.849% in 2013. EABL was bid at 308.00 for
size at the Closing Bell and therefore, it is predicted and
predictable that EABL will set a Fresh All Time Closing High tomorrow.
EABL trades on a 22.808 Trailing PE.
EABL share price data +15.849% and at a Record Closing High
KenGen firmed 0.8% to close at 12.55 and traded 434,000 shares. KenGen
is +42.613% in 2013 and the Top Performing share at the Exchange in
Kenya Power KPLC firmed 0.27% to close at 18.50 and traded 1.188m
shares worth 21.981m.
BAT firmed 0.19% to close at 530.00 and traded 30,400 shares. BAT is
+7.942% in 2013.