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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 01st of February 2013
 
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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"Pollen from Hazelnut" (2013) by Wolfgang Laib Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-31/pollen-zings-moma-surreal-corpses-visit-morgan-review.html

Every spring through summer since 1977, Wolfgang Laib collects
hazelnut pollen in forests and meadows near his German home.

The artist manually brushes the coarse, bright yellow powder from pine
branches into a ceramic coffee cup and saves it in glass jars. Now he
has brought it to New York.

Titled “Pollen from Hazelnut,” the velvety, softly vibrating, deckled
field sits on a raised slab in the museum’s cathedral-like Marron
Atrium -- which Laib refers to as MoMA’s “inner sanctum.”

it was a Pleasure to catch up with Alexander Michaelis an Old Friend Twitpic
http://twitpic.com/bzx1gw

Alex has been My Friend since I was 13 Years Old. And I am so happy
that he too has now found Opportunities to grow his Architecture
Practise in Africa because I get to see him more often. The Last Time
I was in London Alex invited around The Now Prime Minister David
Cameron for Lunch. He is a Dear Friend and a fabulous Architect. We
drove down to St Tropez when we were Teenagers in his Alfa Sud. We
have had the occasional Scrape.

Michaelis Boyd Associates
http://www.michaelisboyd.com/

Yesterday Alex said Please come and meet me at @SarovaPanafric and in
fact I had not been there since I was a little Boy. It is very sexy
Afro-Chic now in fact. And on the way Home, we stopped at Mr. Vora's
for a Whiskey. And I had not seen Mr. Vora for a few years. We used to
meet at the Pool at the Stanley. Mr. Vora once described how he walked
around the Mara to find the site for his Mara Sarova. Mr. Vora has
this magnetic Personality and he told me

'But Aly-Khan I have never held your hand.'

We held Hands and he said

'You are carrying the World on Your Shoulders. Just Throw it onto the Earth.'

I hugged him and felt I was in a Kabir Poem.

Kabir
http://j.mp/z6juv5

Between the poles of the conscious and the unconscious,

there has the mind made a swing:
Thereon hang all beings and all worlds,

and that swing never ceases its sway.

Millions of beings are there:

the sun and the moon in their courses are there:
Millions of ages pass, and the swing goes on.

All swing!

And I could feel his Heat in my Hand all the way Home.

And as Alex and I scoffed our Jumbo Prawns at home, I thought, what a
World where a Friend from London can re connect You with someone in
your own City.

read more





“All of us are touched by every event that unfolds in every corner of the world,” Chuck Hagel
Law & Politics


“Whether we like it or not, there will be no peace or stability in the
Middle East without Iran’s participation,” Hagel said

THE GREAT LIBRARY OF TIMBUKTU  NewYorker
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/01/the-libraries-of-timbuktu.html?mbid=social_retweet

As the desert inches south into the city of Timbuktu, the sand settles
on your skin and the air feels heavy in your lungs. I travelled there
nine years ago, the mythical city, home to the shrines of three
hundred and thirty-three Sufi saints.

Since the fifteenth century, Timbuktu had been an epicenter of
commerce on the trans-Saharan caravan route, but also, thanks to its
thriving mosque and university, an oasis of learning and literacy.
Founded between the eleventh and twelfth centuries by Tuareg tribes,
the city soon housed scholars and scribes within its walls. These
scribes copied countless works on topics ranging from political
science, history, and theology to astronomy, botany, and poetry.
Arabic and, at times, Fulani, Songhai, or Bambara texts were recopied
on camel shoulder blades, sheepskins, tree bark, and even papers from
Italy. Some were illumined with gold leaf, with frail calligraphy
presenting significant stylistic variations. The surviving
manuscripts, including one in Turkish and one in Hebrew, span the
thirteenth to the nineteenth centuries. Thus a written history of
Africa was constructed, including the wondrous “Tarikh Al-Sudan,” a
storied chronicle of West Africa.

Jihadi movements in Africa “opportunistic infections that grow best
where governance is weak or entirely absent”. FT
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/eb39956e-6718-11e2-a805-00144feab49a.html#axzz2Ja7gQIQ4

“I think it’s . . . increasingly likely that Somali and non-Somali
fighters from al-Shabaab’s ranks are going to appear with growing
frequency in places like Mali, Syria and Yemen,” says Matt Bryden,
Somalia expert and head of Sahan Research, who describes jihadi
movements in Africa as “opportunistic infections that grow best where
governance is weak or entirely absent”.

Twitter  “This is a huge ... universe of prose,” he says wistfully,
“that is simply slipping through the consciousness of time without any
systematic or thoughtful criticism.”
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/091ba1b6-6576-11e2-a3db-00144feab49a.html#axzz2JKUOjzNk

The NYRB has had a successful blog since 2010, but Silvers believes
many new media haven’t yet found their “critical function”. “Just
think of the tweet form,” he says, describing tweets as sometimes “apt
and to the point” but often “no more than off-hand wise-cracks”. The
challenge now is to find a way of reviewing these things, he says,
“just as we would bring a critical perspective to bear on other forms
of prose”. He pauses, gazing out of the window. “This is a huge ...
universe of prose,” he says wistfully, “that is simply slipping
through the consciousness of time without any systematic or thoughtful
criticism.”

THE ROVING EYE All that pivots is gold Pepe Escobar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/OB01Ad01.html

This is a film noir worthy of Dashiell Hammett - involving the
Pentagon, Beijing, shadow wars, pivoting and a lot of gold.

Every informed geopolitical observer has tracked leak after leak by
former French intelligence operatives to the deliciously wicked
satirical weekly Le Canard Enchaine, detailing Qatar's modus operandi.
It's a no-brainer. Qatar's foreign policy reads as Muslim Brotherhood
Here, There and Everywhere (but not inside the neo-feudal emirate);
this is Qatar's Maltese Falcon. At the same time Doha - to the delight
of French elites - is an avid practitioner of hardcore neoliberalism,
and a top investor in France's economy.

So their interests may coalesce in promoting disaster capitalism -
successfully - in Libya and then - still unsuccessfully - in Syria.
Yet Mali is something else; classic blowback - and that's where the
interests of Doha and Paris diverge (not to mention Doha and
Washington; at least if one does not assume that Mali has been the
perfect pretext for a renewed AFRICOM drive.)

Algerian media is awash in outrage, questioning Qatar's agenda (in
French). Yet the pretext - as predicted - worked perfectly.

AFRICOM - surprise! - is on a roll, as the Pentagon gets ready to set
up a drone base in Niger. That's the practical result of a visit by
AFRICOM's commander, General Carter Ham, to Niger's capital Niamey
only a few days ago.

Forget about those outdated PC-12 turbo props that have been spying on
Mali and Western Africa for years. Now it's Predator time.
Translation: chief-in-waiting John Brennan plans a Central
Intelligence Agency shadow war all across the Sahara-Sahel. With
permission from Mick Jagger/Keith Richards, it's time to start humming
a remixed hit: "I see a grey drone/ and I want it painted black"

Rolling Stones - Paint It Black YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6d8eKvegLI

And that brings us to that famous pivoting to Asia - which was
supposed to be the number one geopolitical theme of the Obama 2.0
administration. It may well be. But certainly alongside AFRICOM
pivoting all over the Sahara/Sahel in drone mode, to Beijing's growing
irritation; and Doha-Washington pivoting in their support of the
former "terrorist" turned "freedom fighter", and vice-versa.

Israel jet attack just a prelude By Victor Kotsev
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/OB01Ak02.html

On Tuesday, hours before the raid, the Israeli air force chief,
General Amir Eshel, said Israel was engaged in "a campaign between
wars" in which it was doing its best "to keep [our] efforts beneath
the level at which war breaks out".

Experts caution that there is more to come. "The bigger problem is
that this wasn't a one-time event," wrote the Israeli analyst Amos
Harel in the daily Ha'aretz. "The worse Assad's position grows, the
more attempts Hezbollah will make to grab whatever weapons it can get
its hands on."

Meanwhile, Russia - another staunch Syrian ally - is reportedly
conducting "the largest [naval] exercise since the dissolution of the
Soviet Union" off Syria's coast. [2]

Amid the increasing disintegration of central authority in Syria and
several mysterious explosions in Lebanon in the past few weeks,
tensions in the Levant are at a high. It is hard to tell how likely a
regional war is in the near future, but it is clear that the Israeli
operation on Tuesday night was a major development.

The Russian Fleet in the Mediterranean: Exercise or Military
Operation? INSS Insight No. 399, January 29, 2013
http://www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=10856

A joint Russian naval exercise in the eastern basin of the
Mediterranean Sea, off the Syrian coast, began on January 22, 2013 and
is scheduled to end today, January 29, 2013. The Russians are calling
this the largest exercise since the dissolution of the Soviet Union,
and vessels from three different naval theaters – the Black Sea, the
Baltic Sea, and the North Sea – have reached the region. The exercise
is taking place simultaneously in two naval theaters: the
Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, with 23 vessels, strategic air
force units, and air defense units participating. The force includes
10 warships: a missile cruiser; an anti-submarine ship; two escort
vessels; four landing craft carrying 300 marines and 10 armored
vehicles each; two submarines, one nuclear-powered and one
diesel-powered, and auxiliary ships. This naval force carries nuclear
weapons (tactical nuclear missiles carried by the submarines were also
mentioned). In an extraordinary measure, the Russian chief of staff is
commanding the exercise directly. A similar exercise, albeit of
smaller scope, took place in the summer of 2012, and Russian vessels
have been operating in this region in an ongoing manner over the past
two years.

An additional intriguing aspect of the exercise is the recent host of
messages in the Russian media indicating that the exercise was
actually designed as a deterrent in the Syrian theater. Several
comments are particularly noteworthy:

    The exercise is not routine; it is a demonstration of Russian
power, accompanied by an enhanced presence in the Mediterranean.
    The exercise is related to the global conflict and reflects
Russia’s intentions to act as a superpower.
    The exercise is related to the Middle East situation, which poses
a threat along the borders of Russia and its allies.
    The exercise is related to the grave situation in Syria, and is
designed to forestall any plans (by the West, Sunni countries, or
Turkey) for intervention in Syria. The Russians interpret reports on
Assad’s potential use of chemical weapons as a cover for such
intervention.
    Finally, the exercise guards the Alawite coast ahead of a possible
move there by Assad for the purpose of fortifying it as a defense line
and creating an Alawite state.

The presence of Russian force in the region may thus be exploited in
two ways. The first is to impel the US to reach understandings with
Russia about a settlement in Syria. In this context, it is more
correct to see this as a dispute about the price that the US will have
to pay Russia for the understandings in Syria. Two, in the absence of
the desired understandings with the West, Russia plans, beyond its
general support for Assad, to create conditions enabling it to deploy
its forces in the Alawite area by securing the coastline and creating
a deterrent against intervention. If this is the case, it appears that
preparations are underway for the beginning of the dissolution of
Syria.

Conclusions

Israel punctured the Theory that Russian Air Defences were able to
protect the Syrian Skies from external Attack.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade


Euro 1.3626 This is a 14 Month High
Dollar Index 79.10
Japan Yen 92.17  weakest since June 2010.set for a 1.4 percent loss in
the past five days against the dollar
Swiss Franc 0.9109
Pound 1.5877
Aussie 1.0392
India Rupee 53.295
South Korea Won 1096.20
Brazil Real 1.9908 Brazil’s real traded stronger than 2 per dollar for
a fourth day
Egypt Pound 6.7156
South Africa Rand 8.9644

The yen has fallen 7 percent since the end of last year, the biggest
decline among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar lost 0.5 percent and the euro
climbed 3.1 percent.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 92.132 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The yen is set for a 1.4 percent loss in the past five days against
the dollar, marking a 12th weekly loss that’s the longest stretch in
Bloomberg data going back to 1971.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3624 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro touched 1.3633, the strongest since November 2011. Yesterday it
completed the longest stretch of monthly advances against the dollar
since May 2003.

Conclusions

There is a positive contagion “We designed a parcours” Super Mario:
The Euro's Saviour onday, September 10, 2012 - 00:00 -- BY ALY KHAN
SATCHU
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-2971/super-mario-euros-saviour

I have spent my life studying the linguistics of the world's central
bankers. I ran short term interest trading desks. My life was spent in
whats called the short end of the yield curve. And the biggest
impactor on interest rates is of course, the central banker. I
actually enjoy studying and parsing the semantics, the language, the
emphasis of central bankers.

You have to weigh every nuance with the same care that you might hold
a Fabergé egg. The personality of the central banker is also key. He
or she has to be compelling and never underwhelming. Last week, I was
invited to speak about Africa in Zurich at a conference hosted by the
Neue Zurcher Zeitung and Credit Suisse. The current Swiss central
banker Thomas J. Jordan, his predecessor Thomas Hildebrand, the
previous head of the Bundesbank Axel Weber amongst many European
banking worthies spoke on the first day about the Euro.

My day one takeaway was that they were complacent but later I realised
that they had evidently met Mario Draghi and what I was perceiving as
complacency was in fact a real sense of confidence that they had a
secret silver bullet and that was super Mario. Mario Draghi is a super
star in my world.

He came up with a plan which can work and he has an air about him
which is persuasive and compelling. The triple bottom line is that
this is not a fellow to bet against. The Euro rallied sharply last
week as he outlined his programme called outright monetary
transactions as those betting against the Euro ran for the hills and
covered their shorts.

“We designed a parcours, a road, and it’s in the hands of the
governments” Draghi said. Draghi has effectively triangulated the
politicians and those governments that will seek help. He has
established a new Euro framework. “Governments must stand ready to
activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional
financial-market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist
- with strict and effective conditionality,” Draghi said. The ECB
reserves the right to terminate bond purchases if governments don’t
fulfil their part of the bargain, he added.

He said the programme “will enable us to address severe distortions in
government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded
fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the Euro. Under
appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to
avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for
price stability in the Euro area.”

What Draghi has done is remove the tail risk from the Euro Area. Last
year, Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said “As
protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad
outcomes,” he answered. I do not expect a sharp rebound in the Euro
area yet but the downside, the vortex risk has been back stopped and
thats a major achievement. Mario Draghi stepped up or as Billy Ocean
once sang when the going gets tough, the tough get going and he has.

Now, let me a throw out a view which is quite contrarian. The super
Mario Draghi Euro 2.0 plan and an imminent round of further QE
[Quantitative Easing) A central bank implements quantitative easing by
buying financial assets from commercial banks and other private
institutions with newly created money - magic money freshly minted out
of thin air] from the FED is set to increase the amount of FIAT
currency in circulation and this money needs to find a home. The
typical safe havens like the Swiss Franc and a number of other
reflexive homes have shut their doors. A tsunami of liquidity might
well be headed towards Africa.

A young man who practices parkour is called a traceur; a woman is a traceuse.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/04/16/070416fa_fact_wilkinson

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.118 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

@Diageo_News The World's Biggest Distiller: By the Numbers Bloomberg TV
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/the-world-s-biggest-distiller-by-the-numbers-4qez3d20SrOUb18DAEZnBA.html

Diageo Maintains Profit Growth With Move Away From Europe Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-31/diageo-first-half-profit-advances-on-premium-alcohol-sales.html

Diageo Plc (DGE), the world’s largest distiller, maintained its pace
of profit growth in the first half as it shifted away from the
depressed economies of Europe and toward faster-growing emerging
markets.

So-called organic operating profit rose 9 percent to 2.03 billion
pounds ($3.2 billion) in the six months ended Dec. 31, the
London-based company said today, the same pace of growth as in the
previous financial year. Earnings exceeded the 2.02 billion-pound
median estimate of 11 analysts

The maker of Johnnie Walker whisky said it now gets 42 percent of
sales from faster-growing markets that include Brazil and China.
Europe, which in 2007 represented 38 percent of revenue, saw its slice
of the total fall to 26 percent. First- half profit increased 23
percent in Latin America and 17 percent in Africa, while declining 3
percent in Europe, hurt by a 19 percent sales decline in the southern
part of the region.

“This bipolarity and chronic weakness in Southern Europe is striking
and endorses Diageo’s strategy of diversification into emerging
markets,” said Martin Deboo, an analyst at Investec Securities in
London.

Profit growth was led by a 23 percent increase in the Latin America
and Caribbean region, where sales gained 18 percent. The distiller’s
African earnings rose 17 percent.

“Our expanding reach to emerging middle-class consumers in
faster-growing markets was the key driver of our volume growth, while
net sales growth was driven by our pricing strategy and
premiumization, especially in the U.S.,” Diageo Chief Executive
Officer Paul Walsh said in the statement.

The distiller gets the majority of profit from North America, where
operating profit advanced 9 percent.

Diageo is seeking to increase profitability over the next three years
and expand organic sales, which exclude the effect of currency
fluctuations and acquisitions, by an average of 6 percent annually as
it sells higher-priced products globally.

“The guidance was a compound annual growth rate, and not meant to be
linear,” Mahlan said. “I still feel comfortable in the guidance we
gave over the medium term.”

Conclusions

Diageo and Drinks Equity are the Darlings of the Global Equity Markets.

Diageo share Price data here via Bloomberg 1-Yr Rtn +34.56%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DGE:LN

Current P/E Ratio (ttm)         18.4926

Conclusions

Compare to EABL Below

read more



Bharti Net Misses Estimates as Interest Costs Increase Bloomberg
Emerging Markets


Bharti Airtel Ltd. (BHARTI) said third-quarter profit fell, missing
analyst estimates, after a weaker rupee boosted interest and network
equipment costs for India’s largest mobile-phone operator. Shares
fell.

Net income fell to 2.84 billion rupees ($53 million) in the three
months ended Dec. 31, from 10.1 billion rupees a year earlier, New
Delhi-based Bharti said today. That trailed the 8.39 billion-rupee
median of 29 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue was
202.4 billion rupees, compared with the median estimate of 203 billion
rupees.

Billionaire Chairman Sunil Mittal has cut free talk time and revamped
management as Bharti prepares for license renewal payments and
regulatory changes. Tariff changes were “inevitable” and in line with
increasing costs as declining margins have hurt the long-term
financial health of the industry, Bharti said Jan. 23.

Frontier Markets

A Visit with the Vissarionites Photo Booth
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/photobooth/2013/01/davide-monteleones-photographs-of-the-vissarionites.html#slide_ss_0=4

In 1990, a year after losing his job as a traffic policeman, a Russian
man named Sergey Anatolyevitch Torop experienced a mystical
revelation. He believed that he had been reborn as Vissarion, the
returned Jesus Christ, and soon afterward he founded a religious
movement, the Church of the Last Testament. Thirteen years later, he
has nearly five thousand followers, known as Vissarionites, who live
in a community based in the rural Krasnoyarsk region of Siberia. The
Church of the Last Testament combines elements of the Russian Orthodox
Church with Buddhist themes of reincarnation, as well as preparations
for the impending apocalypse; members are vegan and are restricted
from drinking alcohol, smoking, and using money.

The photographer Davide Monteleone (who recently documented the
journey of an ice-class bulk carrier through the through the Arctic
seas) heard about the Vissarion community during his first trip to
Russia, in 2000. Years later, he returned to spend a week with them in
Siberia, in mid-December. “I’ve always been intrigued by utopian
communities,” he told me. “Particularly in Russia, many of them
appeared after the fall of Soviet Union, sort of looking for a new
belief when an entire system falls to pieces.” Over the past ten
years, Russia has seen a rise in domestic cults; the Russian Orthodox
church estimates that over four thousand religious movements currently
exist across the country. Here’s a selection of Monteleone’s
photographs from his time with the Vissarionites.

read more


Trading giant Trafigura bets heavy on Africa Reuters
Africa


Trafigura relies on Africa for almost a quarter of its revenues, the
commodities giant has revealed, highlighting one of the highest risk
appetites in the industry as it prepares to float a chunk of business.

Trafigura told its bond holders Africa generated $29 billion worth of
revenues in 2012 out of a total of $120 billion.

Africa came only slightly behind Asia with $31 billion, with Europe
coming third with $20.7 billion. North America generated $16 billion,
Latin America $14 billion and the Middle East $8.7 billion, sources
familiar with the report told Reuters.

Trafigura declined comment.

The company was founded 20 years ago by Claude Dauphin, one of the
closest allies of the godfather of contemporary oil trading Marc Rich.

Rich's company Marc Rich and Co ultimately transformed itself into
trading giant Glencore following a management buyout.

Just like Glencore before its record initial share offering two years
ago, Trafigura reveals its results only to a limited number of bond
holders.

Trafigura is preparing to float its Africa-focused subsidiary Puma.
The share of African business in its results is therefore important as
it could give a hint of how much Trafigura - also expected by market
players to go public one day - is worth itself.

The firm's gross debt grew to $18 billion from $16.7 billion a year
earlier but most of the debt was likely short-term and relating to
commodities inventories.

The debt level does not seem to be worrying the lenders as Trafigura
said it was dealing with 110 banks around the world and its credit
lines have risen to $38 billion from $17 billion in 2008

Conclusions

Puma Energy are the Ones in talks with @KenolKobil

@KenolKobil share price data and Official Announcements here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzU%3D

@KenolKobil 11-SEP-2012 Update on Cautionary Statement
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Update%20on%20Cautionary%20Statement%20Sept%2011%202012.pdf

FastJet facing Tanzanian tax claim Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9834608/FastJet-facing-Tanzanian-tax-claim.html

The London listed company’s Tanzanian arm was found not have paid pay
roll and property taxes as well as airport departure charges from
January to November last year.In a tax audit last month the Tanzanian
taxman found the company owed 1.9bn Tanzanian shillings and $252,700.
With interest and fines, the total sum owed came in at 2.8bn shillings
(£1.1m) and $651,300 (£414,200). The sums do not take into account any
corporation tax the company may owe.

Details of the tax bill comes on top of a slew of other demands and
legal cases the airline is facing. These include £1m in claims over
allegedly unpaid fuel and maintenance bills in Kenya, a £4.4m claim
from the founder of the airline Donald Smith relating to allegations
of unpaid debts and a dispute with the Ugandan Civil Aviation
Authority.

The fledgling airline was created after African conglomerate Lonrho
sold its aviation division Fly540 to listed cash shell Rubicon. Sir
Stelios was brought on board to add his branding and expertise to the
venture.

A spokesman for FastJet said: “The matter in question is a legacy
issue inherited from the Fly540 operation. FastJet works closely with
the Tanzanian government to properly address all historic issues
relating to tax.”

The company has previously said about other disputes that “with a
company like ours operating in markets such as these, from time to
time issues like this will arise”.

Conclusions

The Low Cost Model might look compelling in a Business Plan but the
Complexities of working in what remains an asymettric Market have to
be provided for. There is no room for Error in the @FastJet Model.

Dollar versus Rand 5 Day Chart INO 8.9488 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=FOREX_USDZAR

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.7174 [Fresh All Time Low]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Headed to 7.00.

read more



Some analysts say the worst-case scenario would be Kenyatta winning and refusing to go to the ICC. Guardian
Kenyan Economy

"Then it is predicted and predictable that Kenya will meet sanctions
and, given our interconnectedness with the global economy, this would
have a severe impact on the economy," says Satchu.

Conclusions

Therefore I see this Statement as an important One at spiking the
sanctions BlowBack Risk

Nakumatt set for share sale to fund expansion projects Business Daily
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Nakumatt-set-for-share-sale-to-fund-expansion-projects/-/539550/1681280/-/15nro0g/-/index.html

Supermarket chain Nakumatt Holdings wants equity investors to buy
nearly a quarter of the retailer this year to help support its
expansion across East Africa.

Nakumatt managing director Atul Shah is quoted in the firm’s in-house
magazine as saying the chain would seek to sell up to 25 per cent of
its stake to either institutional or individual investors.

“The family will need to dilute its ownership, currently at more than
90 per cent,” said Mr Shah.

The chain, which targets middle and upper income customers, has 38
branches in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda, and hopes to open
outlets in Djibouti, South Sudan and Burundi.

Mr Shah said Nakumatt’s turnover increased 28.5 per cent to Sh38
billion in the year to June, adding that the chain’s net profit rose
32 per cent to Sh312 million.

Nakumatt’s listed rival Uchumi Supermarkets delivered a profit of
Sh273 million on revenues of Sh14 billion for the year ended June 30,
2012.

Nakumatt is currently owned by the Shah family and Hotnet Ltd, a
company associated with former Kilome MP Harun Mwau.

Mr Shah said the family would retain majority control of the retailer.

“Despite reducing its stake, the family has no plans to bow out of the
business,” he said. Earlier, the retailer said it was keen to sell
between 15 per cent and 18 per cent of its shares to equity investors
and attract international retailers to take up another 25 per cent to
30 per cent of the company thereafter.

Nakumatt turned to commercial banks for funds after buy-out talks with
a consortium led by London-based private equity firm Satya Capital
collapsed. Satya Capital is associated with Dr Mo Ibrahim.

Conclusions

Mr. Harun Mwau was cited by @BarackObama in the Drug King Pin Act and
hence his Presence on the Register is problematical.

Under the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act, the U.S.
government has the right to seize any property held by Mwau  in U.S.
territory VOA
http://www.voanews.com/content/kenyan-politician-named-drug-kingpin-by-us-123093448/158227.html

Uchumi share Price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTM%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           19.15
Total Shares Issued:          265430000.00
Market Capitalization:        5,082,984,500
EPS:             1.03
PE:                 18.592

EABL share price data here +13.5849% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzQ%3D

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           301.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774976.00
Market Capitalization:        238,023,267,776
EPS:             13.46
PE:                 22.363

FY 2012 versus FY 2011
Consolidated Income Statement
Revenue 55.522166b versus 44.895037b +23.67105522%
Gross Profit 26.865119b versus 22.066893b +21.74400356%
Other Income 3.797208b versus 0.320673b +1084%
Administration Expenses 7.450204b versus 6.474500b +15.069951%
Full Year Profit Before Tax 15.253049b versus 12.258989b +24.42338434%
Full Year Profit After Tax 11.186113b versus 9.023660b +23.9642561%
Earnings Per Share 13.46 versus 9.30 +44.731182%
Borrowings 19.982236b versus 3.917688b

Via The Investor Relations Briefing Document
Tusker +17%
Guinness +23%
Serengeti Beer +49%
Senator +53%
Johnnie Walker +74%
Spirit Net Sales +47%

EABL reports Results through End December via Diageo Results
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/EABL-records-slower-growth-in-key-brands-/-/539550/1681216/-/ticpxrz/-/index.html

Diageo, which owns 50.03 per cent of EABL, Thursday announced results
for the six months to December showing that net sales from beer grew
11 per cent while premium spirits like Johnnie Walker and Smirnoff
grew 38 per cent and 24 per cent respectively.

Tusker’s net sales in the half to December grew by nine per cent.

“The strong performance in beer offset a decline in local spirits to
deliver double-digit net sales growth in East Africa,” said Nick
Blazquez, President, Diageo Africa, while announcing the firm’s
results to December 2012.

“Net sales of ready-to-drink increased over 50 per cent with excellent
growth of Smirnoff Ice, augmented by Snapp, following its launch last
year.”

Beer accounts for about 80 per cent of EABL sales while spirits take
15 per cent. Mr Blazquez now says that local brands like Safari Cane
and Kenya King from London Distillers Kenya and Crescent brand of
drinks by Keroche Breweries are among those emerging as a threat to
their revenues from this segment.

“Last year Kenya Cane in glass bottles gained significant share when
plastic bottles were banned in Kenya, however Diageo now faces more
competition from other local spirits in glass bottles and the volume
declined over 30 per cent,” added Mr Blazquez.

Nick Blazquez at the EABL AGM Nairobi Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/b9dt5a

Nick Blazquez - Interview with Aly Khan Satchu – 6 November 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/docs/Interview%20with%20Aly%20Khan%20Satchu%20FINAL.pdf

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +9.108% in 2013
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

The Nairobi All Share is 2.45% below its 2013 High from the 16th of
January and the Retreat and corrective Move is now over.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +6.847% in 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi Securities Exchange traded a Banner Session with Equity
Turnover topping a Billion shillings to total 1.059b.
Trading was concentrated in Safaricom + 1.94% and traded 110.81m
shares worth 614.897m for its busiest Session of 2013.
The Market has turned bullish over the last 2 Sessions again after a
corrective Phase



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom traded a Banner Session today and firmed 1.94% to close at
5.55 and traded 110.81m shares worth 614.897m. Safaricom is +9.9009%
in 2013. Safaricom set an August 2010 Intra Day High of 6.00 on 9th
January and then retreated 11.666% from that Intra Day High through
30th January on a Closing Basis. Safaricom has subsequently bounced
4.716% over 2 Sessions and todays outsize Trading Volume speaks to the
Depth of Demand, I venture. Safaricom has announced that it will raise
M-Pesa Charges to account for the  10 per cent excise duty tax on
transaction fees charged on money transfer services that was
introduced by the Government.

Safaricom share Price data +9.9009% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D

Kenya Airways rebounded 0.9466% to close at 10.65 and traded 146,900
shares. The News coming out of @FastJet who apparently are facing a
Tsunami of claims confirms that Africa remains an aysmettric Market
and the @FastJet Challenge might well be more of a whimper than the PR
Growl. Kenya Airways is oversold.

ScanGroup firmed 0.75% to close at 67.00 and was trading at 68.00
+2.26% session highs at the Closing Bell. ScanGroup traded 76,900
shares. At the Closing Bell, There was Buy Side Demand for 602.73%
more shares than were traded during the Session. ScanGroup is 4.964%
below a Record Closing High from the 19th of December last Year.

Access Kenya firmed 3.8466% to close at 5.40 and was trading at 5.50
+5.77% at the Finish Line. Access Kenya traded 98,600 shares. Access
Kenya is +22.272% in 2013.

Access Kenya share price data +22.272% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTM%3D

Standard Group ticked 4.545% higher to close at 23.00 and was trading
at 24.00 +9.09% at the Finish Line. Standard traded 8,100 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 33.50 however its Weighted
Average was 33.74 [and rounded down] but signalling an upwards Price
Bias. Kenya Commercial Bank traded 4.395m shares worth 148.302m. Kenya
Commercial Bank is +12.605% in 2013 and 2.898% below its All Time
Closing High of 34.50 set on the 16th of last month.

Kenya Commercial Bank share price data +12.605% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           33.50
Total Shares Issued:          2950170000.00
Market Capitalization:        98,830,695,000
EPS:             3.72
PE:                 9.005

Barclays Bank eased 0.31% to close at 16.10 and traded 630,900 shares
worth 10.167m.
Standard Chartered firmed 0.38% to close at 263.00 and was trading at
session highs of 270.00 +3.05% at the Closing Bell. Standard Chartered
traded 7,900 shares and the Offer Side is light and the Price could
squeeze higher very quickly.
COOP Bank firmed 0.7733% to close at 13.05 and was trading at Session
highs of 13.15 +1.54% at the Finish Line. COOP Bank traded 502,100
shares worth 6.569m. COOP Bank is +3.571% in 2013.
Diamond Trust firmed 0.78% to close at 129.00 and traded 55,300
shares. Diamond Trust is +12.173% in 2013.
Equity Bank firmed 0.95% to close at 26.50 and traded 193,300 shares.
Equity Bank is +11.578% in 2013.

Transcentury traded 5th and eased 1.98% to close at 24.75 with 958,000
shares worth 23.945m traded. Transcentury is +6.45% in 2013, trades on
a Trailing PE of 20.121 and reported a +214.16% Acceleration in its H1
PBT Earnings Release.

Transcentury share data +6.45% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTg%3D

British American Investments BRITAK rallied 3.17% to close at 6.50 and
traded 461,700 shares. BRITAK reported a strong H1 Turnaround where
its H1 PBT Profit and Loss Before Tax was 1.823138b versus [-109.682m]
+1762% previously. This is a 16 Month Closing High. BRITAK is +6.66%
in 2013.
CIC Insurance firmed 1.22% to close at 4.15 and traded 407,100 shares
and had a 2 versus 1 Demand versus Supply Imbalance at the Closing
Bell.

City Trust closed unchanged at 464.00 and traded 8,800 shares. City
Trust is +18.974% in 2013 and 0.215% off a Record High reached this
Year and after the announcement of the Details around the Proposed
Reverse Merger with I and M Bank.

City Trust share data and Details of the Proposed Reverse Merger +18.974% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NDQ%3D



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL firmed 0.66% to close at 303.00 and just 0.3289% off its all time
Closing High of 304.00 set on the 16th of January. EABL traded 466,700
shares worth 141.566m. EABL is +14.339% in 2013 and Investors gained
Visibility on its Earnings through December via the Diageo Earnings
Release this week. Diageo reported that Tusker Net Sales grew 9%
through December, Beer grew 11% and Nick Blazquez, President, Diageo
Africa, said

'The strong performance in beer offset a decline in local spirits to
deliver double-digit net sales growth in East Africa.”

EABL is interesting in that its skewed towards Beer whereas Diageo is
skewed towards Spirits. Investors clearly saw enough Growth in this to
once again send EABL back towards all time Highs and I expect a Fresh
All Time Closing High as early as next week.

EABL share data +14.339% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzQ%3D

Kenya Power traded 4th. KPLC firmed 0.2833% to close at 17.70 and was
trading at 17.95 +1.7% session highs at the Closing Bell.
KenGen eased 0.843% to close at 11.75 and traded 327,600 shares.
KenGen is the best performing share at the Securities Exchange in 2013
and has posted a
33.522% Return this Year. KenGen has corrected 14.545% off its 2013
Closing High from 18th January, however.

Kenya Electricity share price data here +33.522% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mzc%3D

Athi River Mining eased 0.961% to close at 51.50 and traded 320,600
shares. ARM is +15.47% in 2013 and since its Stock was split 5 for
Every 1 Held.
Bamburi Cement eased 0.98% to close at 203.00 and traded 5,100 shares.
Portland traded 100 shares at 45.00 +6.51%.
--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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