|Monday 11th of February 2013
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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
@BarackObama 's Message to Kenyan People and a Tsunami of Messaging The Star
Habari Yako started President @BarackObama 's Message to the Kenyan
People delivered via a Podcast, earlier this week. The President
continued to say
''The choice of who will lead Kenya is up to the Kenyan people. The
United States does not endorse any candidate for office, but we do
support an election that is peaceful and reflects the will of the
And then signs off in his inimitable style with
''And I say to all of you who are willing to walk this path of
progress-you will continue to have a strong friend and partner in the
United States of America. Kwaheri.''
Coincidentally and on the very same Day, The British High Commissioner
to Kenya Dr. Christian Turner said:
'“The UK will remain impartial. What is important to us is not who
wins the general election but how he wins the polls” and then Via
Twitter reiterated that ''Whoever wins election, ongoing Kenyan
co-operation with ICC essential.''
And Then on Friday Johnnie Carson The Assistant Secretary of the
Bureau of African Affairs on U.S.--Africa foreign policy weighed in
"Choices have consequences, We live in an interconnected world and
people should be thoughtful about the impact that their choices have
on their nation, on the region, on the economy, on the society and on
the world in which they live. Choices have consequences.”
Carson Speaking to Kenyan journalists from Washington via video link
warned that as much as the general election is a Kenyan affair, its
outcome will have implications since a president "must work with the
The French Ambassador to Kenya Etienne De Poncins added on Friday that
"France will stick to the EU stand to respect the ICC, and the member
countries in relation to ICC suspects."
What is an absolute Truth is that Kenyans have the absolute right to
vote for whomsoever we wish to vote for.
Now How do we parse this Deluge of Comments? We self-referred
ourselves to The ICC with our Mantra 'Don't be Vague Let's go to The
Hague.' So The Idea that this is an Evil Conspiracy hatched outside
Kenya does not stack up. We self-selected the ICC. Interestingly, The
Myth around the ICC has consolidated the Vote on a Tribal Basis. And
The Messages we heard last week from our Western Partners has only
consolidated it further. In fact, it's very counterintuitive but
Commentary from The West has actually snagged Votes for Uhuru Kenyatta
and William Ruto and My Analysis now shows They have a Shot at taking
this Lock, Stock and Barrel in the 1st Round,
The Sanctions risk is [in my View] only triggered if having won the
Popular Mandate the newly minted President and His Deputy decide to
skip the ICC Process. And whilst Many Folks Tend to pose the Question
back to me
'Would You go, Aly-Khan?'
I will take Mr. Kenyatta at his Word. He wins big and confounds
everyone by making his Way to the Hague.
By Way of Contrast, China had already stated the Following “No matter
who is elected, the Chinese Government is willing to work with the
Kenyan Government,” said Chinese Embassy to Kenya Chief of
Communications and Public Affairs Shifan Yu.
It is clear that China is willing to work with whomever and that can
be taken to The Bank. President Omar Al-Bashir has been relying on
China's Guarantee for quite a while now. It has not been a Road strewn
with scented Rose Petals for Khartoum, however.
The Stock Market has been roaring in 2013. The Nairobi All Share is at
a more than 5 Year High and +13.24% so far in 2013. Kenya Commercial
Bank +19.3227% in 2013, EABL +15.849%, ScanGroup +8.7591% in 2013 are
all at Record Highs. BAT is +9.775% in 2013 and just 0.185% off a
Record, Nation Media is +19.457% and just 0.3773% off a Record. One
Session last week, The Securities Exchange traded over 2b shillings
which is a rocket fuelled session any which way You care to cut it.
Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you
know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up
in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And, of course, I did
not get his meaning. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator published in
@JohnGithongo #Mindspeak Saturday 16th February @InterConNairobi
#Mindspeak is at the @InterConHotels #Nairobi Twitpic
The Dedication in #Democracy in Dangerous Places by Paul Collier is to
which I am reading at the Moment.
#Mindspeak with Margaret Ireri @MaggieIreri @IpsosSynovateKe RICH TV
It was a Pleasure attending the Launch of the Coin Collection
Partnership between @KenyaAirways and The Born Free Foundation at the
Ivory Burning Site at the Nairobi National Park.
@KenyaAirways Born Free Foundation @BFFoundation #Nairobi National
Park Virginia McKenna and Dr. Titus Naikuni
21-JAN-2013 ::The Pride of Africa @Kenya Airways
Born Free The Movie YouTube
I thank The #Rwanda High Commissioner #Kenya @RwandaHC_Ke and
@VivianKayitesi of the Rwanda Development Board
For the Invite on Friday Afternoon to an Investor Update.
I thank Paola Imperiale The Italy Ambassador to Kenya for Dinner
Sunday with the Cyprus Ambassador and Domenico Fanizza of the IMF.
China Eclipses U.S. as Biggest Trading Nation Measured in Goods Bloomberg
China surpassed the U.S. to become the world’s biggest trading nation
last year as measured by the sum of exports and imports of goods,
official figures from both countries show.
U.S. exports and imports of goods last year totaled $3.82 trillion,
the U.S. Commerce Department said last week. China’s customs
administration reported last month that the country’s trade in goods
in 2012 amounted to $3.87 trillion.
China was last considered the leading economy during the height of the
Qing dynasty. The difference is that in the 18th century, the Qing
Empire -- unlike rising Britain -- didn’t focus on trade. The Emperor
Qianlong told King George III in a 1793 letter that “we possess all
things. I set no value on objects strange or ingenious, and I have no
use for your country’s manufactures.”
Richard 111 He wrote his name and sometimes the motto tant le desiree,“I’ve wanted it so much” Economist
In these he wrote his name and, sometimes, the motto tant le desiree,
“I’ve wanted it so much”. (The crown, perhaps?) On the calendar page
of his book of hours he carefully wrote in his name, birthplace and
birth-year against October 2nd, his birthday. This was a man who spent
the Christmas of 1484 over-partying, and who liked to appear in a sea
of silk banners of his own device, the white boar; but who also had a
particular devotion to St Anthony the Hermit, patron of those who
struggled against the sins of the flesh.
Malian troops foiled a second suicide bomber attack in the northern town of Gao late on Saturday Reuters
Law & Politics
(Reuters) - Malian troops foiled a second suicide bomber attack in the
northern town of Gao late on Saturday, highlighting fragile security
in zones recaptured by a French-led offensive that is hunting Islamist
insurgent bases further north.
French forces rushed reinforcements and armored vehicles on Sunday to
the Malian army checkpoint on Gao's northern outskirts which was the
same location attacked by another suicide bomber on a motorcycle on
A fast-moving French military intervention launched last month in its
former Sahel colony has driven al Qaeda-allied fighters from Mali's
main northern towns, such as Gao and Timbuktu, into the northeast
Adrar des Ifoghas mountains.
But with Mali's weak army unable to secure recaptured zones, and the
deployment of a larger African security force slowed by delays and kit
shortages, there are fears the Islamist jihadists will hit back with
more guerrilla raids and suicide bombings.
Malian army officers said the north Gao checkpoint came under attack
late on Saturday by a group of Islamist rebels who fired from a road
and bridge that lead north through the desert scrub by the Niger River
to Bourem, 80 km (50 miles) away.
"Our soldiers came under heavy gunfire from jihadists from the bridge
... At the same time, another one flanked round and jumped over the
wall. He was able to set off his suicide belt," Malian Captain Sidiki
Diarra told reporters.
Besides the bomber, who was blown to pieces, one Malian soldier was
lightly wounded, Diarra added. In Friday's motorbike suicide bomber
attack, a Malian soldier was also injured.
Diarra described Saturday's bomber as a "bearded Arab", saying this
had been visible from the body parts collected by the soldiers in a
"We are in a dangerous zone, the enemy is employing asymmetrical
tactics ... we can't be everywhere," a French officer told reporters,
asking not to be named.
The Consolidation of the Initial Gains is the Tricky Part.
Obama’s Kill List Comes to Northern Africa
Law & Politics
The Obama Administration’s kill list, a secret document which lists an
array of people to be killed at the first opportunity, is the source
of a lot of speculation, and who is on the list is not a matter of
But the list’s existence is no secret anymore, nor is the ambition of
many in the administration to see it greatly expanded, with designs on
setting the goal of killing a number of “Islamist militants” across
Northern Africa and then creating the US military and/or CIA
infrastructure to start getting those killings done.
The man to get this escalation done is Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the
Algerian militant behind last month’s hostage siege at a BP gas plant
along the Libyan border. His addition would set a precedent that would
mean a precipitous increase in US ambitions across northern Africa.
Belmokhtar is not believed to be on the list yet because there’s
simply no one to kill him. The CIA’s drone campaign is restricted to
Yemen and Pakistan, and the Pentagon isn’t occupying Algeria.
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Euro 1.3384 djfxtrader: Net Euro Long Position $6.4 Billion, Increases
39%, According to WSJ Analysis of CFTC Data
Dollar Index 80.12
Japan Yen 92.57 -14% over the last 3 Months
Swiss Franc 0.9176
Aussie 1.0301 Aussie declined 0.2 percent to 1.0303 after completing
four weeks of declines It touched $1.0256 last week, the lowest since
India Rupee 53.688
South Korea Won 1095.90
Brazil Real 1.9691
Egypt Pound 6.7164
South Africa Rand 8.8830
Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 92.57 Last
Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Feb. 8 the currency has been
dropping too rapidly before Group of 20 finance chiefs meet this week.
“The yen’s sudden move from 78 or 79 to 90 was not something we
anticipated,” he said.
I have been saying the Move looked very stretched.
Hermes $10,000 Birkin Purse Seen Leading to Record Sales Bloomberg
Retail & Manufacturing
For decades, fashionistas have known that a Birkin bag is a safe style
bet -- if you can get your hands on one. That demand makes its
producer, Hermes International SCA, the surest bet in the luxury
industry when it comes to sales growth.
With waiting lists that can run more than a year for a $10,000 purse,
demand for Hermes handbags shows how the Paris- based company, which
analysts estimate will report record revenue tomorrow, is capable of
determining its own financial performance.
“The limit to what Hermes sells is how much it can produce,” said Luca
Solca, an analyst who heads luxury-goods research at Exane BNP Paribas
in London. Revenue “is what they decide it’s going to be.”
Hermes shares have risen 157 percent in the past three years,
exceeding gains of 75 percent for LVMH and the almost doubling of
Gucci owner PPR SA.
The stock trades at 34 times estimated 2013 earnings compared with 16
times for PPR and 17 times for LVMH.
Venezuela devalues currency for first time since 2010 Guardian
Venezuela's government announced on Friday that is devaluing the
country's currency, a change expected to push up prices in the heavily
Officials said the fixed exchange rate is changing from 4.30 bolivars
to the dollar to 6.30 bolivars to the dollar.
The devaluation had been widely expected by analysts in recent months.
It was the first devaluation to be announced by President Hugo
Chávez's government since 2010.
In black market trading, dollars have recently been selling for more
than four times the official exchange rate of 4.30 bolivars to the
This was long overdue.
Venezuelans lined up to purchase airline tickets and TVs this weekend in a bid to protect themselves from price increases Bloomberg
Venezuelans lined up to purchase airline tickets and TVs this weekend
in a bid to protect themselves from price increases after ailing
President Hugo Chavez devalued the bolivar for a fifth time in nine
Chavez, who is recovering from cancer surgery in Havana, ordered his
government to weaken the exchange rate by 32 percent to 6.3 bolivars
per dollar starting Feb. 13, Finance Minister Jorge Giordani told
reporters Feb. 8. Yesterday, a sign at an electronics store in
southeastern Caracas restricted customers to one purchase each as
Venezuelans rushed to buy flat-screen televisions.
Venezuela’s dollar bonds have returned 4.9 percent this year after
Chavez’s deteriorating health triggered a 50 percent return in the
nation’s debt last year, almost three times the average for emerging
market bonds, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global index.
Investors start a new scramble for Africa FT
It is the ultimate in risk versus return. Hunters of investment
exotica are heading to Africa, where some of the world’s riskiest
markets are enjoying big gains.
After trailing behind more mainstream markets for the better part of a
decade, so-called frontier markets as defined by index provider MSCI
have climbed more than 8 per cent already this year – outpacing both
emerging and developed stock markets.
Vietnam, Dubai, Argentina and Kazakhstan have all enjoyed a robust
start to the year, but fund managers argue that the real frontier
market stars are Africa’s bourses.
“There is a second scramble for Africa under way,” says Richard Gush,
head of Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s South African operations.
The larger sub-Saharan markets have been the primary beneficiaries.
While some smaller markets, such as Namibia and Zambia, have
languished, Nigerian stocks have returned almost 63 per cent in US
dollar terms during the past 12 months, Kenya’s Nairobi All-Share
index has returned 46 per cent and Ghana’s market has climbed more
than 17 per cent. That is quite a turnround. Before the global
financial crisis many frontier market investors favoured countries
such as Vietnam, and regions such as the oil-soaked Gulf.
Nowadays, it is Africa that is the continent on investors’ lips, notes
Zin Bekkali, chief executive of Silk Invest, a boutique asset manager.
“When the frontier markets story started before the crisis people
actually tilted away from Africa, but these days that is where they
want to go above all,” he says.
Investing in the continent’s stock markets can be a turbulent ride,
because of the underlying shares and the choppiness of exchange rates.
For example, Namibia’s market is up about 8 per cent during the past
year, but down 10 per cent in US dollar terms. The economic gains of
many African countries are also linked to commodity export booms.
Sceptics caution that if that unravels, growth – and investor
prospects – will be dented.
The limited size and depth of the markets are also a challenge.
Ashmore estimates that, excluding the South African market, there are
about 250 investable companies across 17 exchanges worth roughly
$250bn. But this makes the overall market smaller than Denmark, and
about the same size as the Philippines.
Trading volumes are woefully low by international standards. Even
Nigeria’s stock exchange, the busiest in sub-Saharan Africa apart from
South Africa, only sees $40m of shares change hands a day on average.
Investors therefore face difficulty exiting larger investments. Even
access can be a technical challenge in some markets.
Yet some fund managers are still attracted to African equities. While
the developed world faces years of economic torpor and painful
deleveraging, and in some larger emerging markets growth is slowing,
many African countries are enjoying an economic renaissance. Asset
managers say African shares are cheap. Even after the recent run, most
exchanges are only now trading at roughly the same or slightly lower
forward-looking price-to-earnings ratios as emerging markets.
Julie Dickson, a fund manager at Ashmore, argues that the rally should
be sustained by still-compelling dividend payments. She estimates that
the dividend yield is about 6 per cent on average in Africa, compared
with about 3 per cent in emerging markets.
African markets also offer some diversification away from the risk-on,
risk-off forces that have dominated global markets.
Although frontier markets can be highly volatile, they largely move
independently of events in the US or Europe – an attractive
characteristic for many fund managers, points out Russ Koesterich,
chief investment strategist at BlackRock.
In fact, the main driver of African exchanges recently appears to have
been big global and emerging equity funds taking “off-benchmark”
positions in local companies – not necessarily inflows into dedicated
frontier and Africa-focused funds.
These emerging market funds take small positions relative to the
assets they control, but their size means bets can have a big impact.
Nigerian Breweries, for example, boasts a list of shareholders that
includes Franklin Templeton, Oppenheimer and Fidelity, via their
emerging market funds. That has helped its shares rally almost 80 per
cent in US dollar terms during the past year.
“There are definitely a lot of off-benchmark bets by global emerging
market funds, which is a bigger story than dedicated frontier market
funds,” says Richard Lacaille, global chief investment officer at
State Street Global Advisors.
Nonetheless, history has shown that the appetite of international
investors for frontier markets such as those in Africa is fickle. If
appetite for risk evaporates again, money could pour out quickly.
Paradoxically, more international investment will also gradually
increase the links between local bourses and global markets, lessening
one of the big attractions of African stocks. Ms Dickson says the
potential returns are worth it: “You just have to do your homework.”
Global inflows at two-year peak
International inflows to African equities are at a two-year high as
investors seek exposure to the region’s growth story, write Alexandra
Stevenson and Andrew Bowman.
Money flowing into Africa-dedicated equity funds in the final month of
last year reached $878.4m, the biggest monthly inflow in just over two
years and four times the amount in the previous month, according to
data provider EPFR.
Weekly flows for the month of January, which have not been
consolidated, are expected to be higher, the data provider said.
While equity capital markets activity picked up in 2012, with $4.5bn
raised through equity markets in sub-Saharan Africa, volumes are still
less than half of those before the financial crisis, according to data
02-JAN-2013 :: The Year 2012 in Review
And in this uncertain world, Africa popped its head over the global
radar. The Nairobi Securities Exchange’s all-share index has surged 38
per cent this year to be sub-Saharan Africa’s top performer in 2012.
We overtook Uganda which is a couple of percentage points behind us.
Nigeria has posted a 32.18% return. South Africa has hit a sequence of
all time highs. If you care to cross the Sahara into Egypt, you will
note that the EGX30 is the 2nd best performing index world- wide
having rallied just over 50%. Venezuela is the world’s best and has
rallied just under 300%. In fact, the likes of Ghana and Nigeria can
today borrow dollars more cheaply than Italy and Spain on the
You might care to ask what is going on?
The merits of Africa have stood out against this backdrop of global
uncertainty. Global investors have shone a torch on what was once upon
a time the dark continent and everything looks a lot brighter than it
does at home. And they have all decided to add a little Africa to
their portfolios and thats why the Africa rally has been so broad
based. Bull markets always have to climb a wall of worry and there are
things to fret about. Marikana, the Boko Haram, our elections but when
taken in the global mix, these look pale in comparison to the
incredibly uncertain developed world.
Drilling deeper at home. You will recall that last year, Nairobi and
Mombasa were the best performing real estate markets worldwide ahead
of peers such as Miami and Sao Paolo, which you have to admit is an
extraordinary and noteworthy outcome. Uchumi has returned 151.94% in
2012 thats 5 times more than the iconic Apple. EABL has returned
+56.686% as its surged to a winning sequence of fresh all time highs
in November and December and thats 1.63x faster than its majority
shareholder Diageo. Kenya Commercial Bank is +86.053% this year and
sniffing close to a record high. I can guarantee you there are few
banks anywhere in the world who have posted such a return.
I think we are at the beginning of a multi-year rally in Africa. Have
you hitched a ride?
07-JAN-2013 :: On the Road
Now I am not proposing that you bike the Nairobi- Mombasa road, not at
all. However, as I looked through the performance tables for 2012 and
by the way the Nairobi all share ranked eighth worldwide out of 104
indices that I track and has started 2013 with a bang and confounding
expectations the first quarter would be more of a whimper as investors
watch the general elections loom large. Returning to the premier
league of stock indices in 2012, the top ten reads, Venezuela,
Istanbul, Egypt, Phillipines, Estonia, Thailand, Karachi, eighth you
know about, Nigeria and tenth Laos.
I do not see one developed market index in that ranking. The returns
in 2012 have come from off the well trodden path and I expect this to
continue. Edwin Lefe- vre says in his seminal Book Reminiscences of a
Stock Market Operator; ‘The Tape is Your Telescope.’
The Nairobi all share has rallied +2.57221% over the first three
sessions in 2013 admittedly whilst most folks were still on their
holidays. EABL, BAT, ARM and City Trust all hit all time highs. Kenya
Commercial Bank missed an all time high by a whisker Friday and will
post one this week. Safaricom closed at a 28 month high.
A market is considered in a bull trend when it rallies over 20 per
cent. The Nairobi all share has been in a bull market since the May 7,
2012 and has been resolutely bullish since then. Foreign investors
have been on the buy side since the start of 2012 and local investors
on the sell side.
I believe we are in a one off adjustment in favour of Africa.
14-JAN-2013 ::The Sweetest of Sweet Spots
“WATER is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock,
which is rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft,
and yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. This is another
paradox: what is soft is strong.” – Lao Tzu
A sweet spot is surely when your personal powers of attraction and
co-option are so strong that you bend the universe to your will
without even trying, when you create serendipity at every opportunity.
As a trader or an investor, a sweet spot is when you see the markets
clearly, it becomes like Deja Vu. It is as if the tape you are
watching is one you can predict with 100% accuracy.
Last year I wrote that a tsunami of cash might well wash up on our
shores. And I believe the tide started rising last year and has
continued to gain traction since then. Local investors have been
fighting the tape for quite a while now and this can be seen in the
sharp uptick in foreign Investors percentage holdings in our big cap
counters. Its really very dramatic. I do not think our local
shareholders have enough skin in the game. They cannot sell much more
otherwise their underperformance is going to be woeful. I mean woeful.
Therefore, This rally might well gather speed and not slow down.
Egyptians Demonstrate, Vent Anger on Presidential Palace Bloomberg
Law & Politics
Demonstrators threw Molotov cocktails and rocks at the main
presidential palace in Cairo yesterday, as thousands rallied against
President Mohamed Mursi and his Muslim Brotherhood in protests that
ignited clashes across the country.
The army put up barbed wire, and the Republican Guard fanned around
the palace. Police used tear gas to disperse protesters armed with the
Molotov cocktails that set parts of the palace on fire, the official
Middle East News Agency reported, citing an interior ministry
official. Security forces also clashed with protesters around
President Mohamed Mursi’s house and Freedom and Justice Party
headquarters in al-Sharqiya, MENA said.
The economy has grown about 2 percent annually in the past two years,
the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Egypt is seeking a $4.8
billion International Monetary Fund loan.
Secularists in Egypt interpreted a religious edict by cleric Mohamed
Shaaban as giving the go-ahead to kill Mursi’s opponents. The cleric
named National Salvation Front opposition leaders such as Hamdeen
Sabahi in comments aired live on the al- Hafez religious satellite
channel on Feb. 2, and said “God’s verdict is death” for those “who
want to burn Egypt.”
Egypt’s Cabinet said Feb. 7 it was examining measures to criminalize
such fatwas, while the prosecutor general ordered an investigation.
“This kind of fatwa is the outcome of the polarization that has
dominated the Egyptian political atmosphere” in recent months, Khalil
al-Anani, a political analyst at Durham University in the U.K., said
by phone. The edict, and Beleid’s assassination, are “very dangerous
indicators that the political conflict can turn violent” if the
Islamists fail to take a firm stance against incitements to violence.
Beleid’s death “is a very serious warning,” the Popular Current party,
headed by former presidential hopeful Sabahi, said on its Facebook
page. “It could mean the Arab Spring countries might go through a
series of assassinations of the opposition.”
There has been no Trend Change in the Trajectory that I can discern.
Protests in Tahrir (Liberation) Square, in Cairo, Egypt, continue for
the fourth day in a row. Photograph by Laura El-Tanawy
(@laurael_tantawy) Photo Booth
Black Market Dollars Put Egyptian Economy on Alert: Currencies Bloomberg
When two Egyptian banks refused to give Ahmed El-Rifai the dollars his
digital media company needed to pay Facebook Inc. last month, he
turned to a more reliable source: the black market at a premium of
about 8 percent.
Net international reserves have tumbled to $13.6 billion, the lowest
level since at least 1997, from $36 billion in 2010, according to
central bank data on Bloomberg.
Egypt is “walking on thin ice,” Jean-Michel Saliba, a London-based
economist at Bank of America Corp., wrote in a Feb. 6 report to
clients. “Domestic dollar demand is likely to strengthen and the gap
between and official and parallel rates is likely to widen.”
Standard & Poor’s cut Egypt’s credit rating in December by one level
to B-, putting it six steps below investment grade and on par with
Greece. The rating company assigned a “negative” outlook, indicating a
further downgrade is likely.
The implied yield on one-month NDF, which reflects the costs of
borrowing pound in the overseas market, jumped to a record 71 percent
last month, surpassing the levels seen during the so-called Arab
Spring, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge was at
about 18 percent in February 2011 when Mubarak was ousted, and 61
percent in December. Barclays Capital sees the currency falling 5.6
percent to 7.11 per dollar by June.
Its headed straight through 7.00.
S. Sudan’s January inflation rate up 8pc East African
South Sudan's inflation rate rose by 7.9 per cent in January, hitting
the 38 per cent mark, the country’s bureau of statistics said, as
hopes of a quick resumption of oil flow continued to vanish.
In contrast, the inflation rate fell by 10.6 per cent in December,
from 41 per cent in November. The country’s National Bureau of
Statistics blames the volatility on seasonal products in the local
“The price of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 5.5 per
cent, that of alcoholic beverages and tobacco by 63 per cent, while
that of communication rose by 8.5 per cent,” said NBS.
“The rise in the cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages was mainly
caused by higher fruit prices, due to the reintroduction of seasonal
products in the market.”
High Stakes Political Violence and the 2013 Elections in Kenya HRW
Law & Politics
The dynamics and risks differ in each region of the country. For
example, in Coast the government is facing a secessionist group
opposed to the elections as well as a violent inter-ethnic conflict.
In Nyanza and Central powerful criminal groups and armed gangs are
backing politicians. In North Eastern government security forces have
stoked tensions by using excessive force against local residents,
especially after attacks by armed groups on the police and military.
The common theme, however, is the unwillingness of the government and
other state authorities since the post-election violence of 2007-2008
to address the root causes of violence, reform the police, tackle
official corruption, disband criminal groups, resettle displaced
persons, and hold accountable the many perpetrators of violence. The
near total impunity for the murders, rapes, and forced displacement in
2007-2008 has left the people who committed those crimes free to
commit them again.
Human Rights Watch submitted detailed questions to the Kenyan
government about its efforts to hold free and fair elections without
violence (see Appendix A), but the government did not respond.
The report is divided into the five sections, mirroring the regions
that have recently witnessed violence. The Coast region has
experienced mounting tension since 2009, with the secessionist Mombasa
Republican Council (MRC) warning the government against organizing
elections there. Facilities and officials of the electoral commission,
as well as police stations, have come under attack in Kwale, Kilifi,
and Malindi counties, but MRC denied responsibility. The police blamed
MRC and arbitrarily rounded up suspected MRC members. At the same
time, Tana River county has experienced a spate of serious violence
since August 2012, with around 180 people killed in fighting between
the agriculturalist Pokomo and the pastoralist Orma communities. An
estimated 34,000 people have been displaced. Both communities
complained about the police’s failure to provide protection or arrest
the perpetrators of violence, which they said led both groups to take
justice into their own hands.
In the Rift Valley mistrust and anger remain high between members of
the two main ethnic groups, the Kalenjin and the Kikuyu, who fought
fiercely in 2007-2008. The government of President Mwai Kibaki, a
Kikuyu, has not adequately promoted reconciliation between the
communities; on the contrary, some of its policies have widened the
divide. Human Rights Watch research indicates that government
assistance to the roughly 400,000 persons displaced in the Rift Valley
five years ago—a rebuilt home, a new home, money, or land— has
significantly favored the Kikuyu and left the Kalenjin internally
displaced, many of them unregistered, concerned that the government
will not assist them. The failure to arrest, let alone prosecute,
those responsible for previous election related violence has left
people suspicious and afraid—emotions that are heightened when
candidates for office hold secret meetings and make political appeals
along ethnic lines. Unlike 2007-2008 when both sides used machetes,
spears, and bows and arrows, Kalenjin and Kikuyu elders, as well as
local government officials, told Human Rights Watch that both
communities have now acquired guns. “The communities are
preparing—they are arming themselves,” one activist in a local
nongovernmental organization said. “All over they are saying: ‘This
time we won’t be unprepared.’”
3 HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH | FEBRUARY 2013
In Eastern and North Eastern regions, the prospects for violence are
on two fronts: inter- clan clashes and widespread abuses by government
security forces after attacks inside Kenya by the Somali militant
Islamist group al-Shabaab. In the former, the police have consistently
failed to intervene; in the latter, they have repeatedly used
excessive force. The inter-clan violence began in late 2011, primarily
in Isiolo, Moyale, and Mandera, and has left roughly 120 people dead
and 77,000 people displaced. At the same time, al- Shabaab has
continued to target Kenyan security forces since Kenya’s intervention
in Somalia in October 2011. Kenyan forces have responded with
excessive force, arbitrary detention, and mistreatment in custody of
people believed to be supporting al-Shabaab in places such as Garissa,
Wajir, Dadaab, Mandera, and El Wak. Al-Shabaab supporters have also
launched grenade and gun attacks at churches, mosques, buses, and
other public places in Nairobi, Mombasa, and northern Kenya.
In Central Kenya, a traditionally Kikuyu area, the key danger stems
from candidates and their parties using criminal groups and armed
gangs to silence opponents and rally support. As with previous
elections, politicians seem to have hired gangs, including the violent
Mungiki, to intimidate voters. Police have taken no effective action
against these illegal groups despite the passage of a law in 2010 to
respond to the threat of armed gangs.
Nyanza region in western Kenya was one of the areas hardest hit by
violence in 2007-2008, with about 115 people killed, more than 90
percent of them by the police, according to the Commission of Inquiry
into Post-Election Violence (CIPEV, also known as the Waki Commission
after its president, Justice Philip Waki). Nyanza has historically
witnessed high levels of political violence, with partisan youth in
Kisumu city playing a major role. In recent years Nyanza has been
dominated by different criminal gangs, including the Baghdad Boys,
Sungu Sungu, American Marine, and China Group.
Consistent with the responsibility to protect, the government should
take all possible measures to prevent mass atrocities and support the
development and implementation of effective contingency plans to halt
mass atrocities rapidly should preventive efforts fail.
Kenya’s development partners, as well as the United Nations and
African Union, should apply sustained and coordinated pressure on
Kenya’s government and politicians to take the important steps
outlined in this report, with consequences when they do not, including
visa bans and asset freezes of individuals credibly implicated in
political violence. Long- term election observer missions are
essential for effective elections monitoring, including in the
These are essentially Known Knowns.
Nairobi second most expensive city in continent Business Daily
A steep rise in the cost of living has pushed Nairobi up the list of
Africa’s most expensive cities and diluted the quality of life for its
residents, a newly published report indicates.
The Kenyan capital is now ranked Africa’s second most expensive city
after Nigeria’s Lagos, putting to test its ability to attract foreign
investment and tourists.
This latest ranking is the opposite of last year’s edition when
Nairobi was listed as the second least expensive city in Africa after
The new survey did not include Angola’s capital Luanda, which has
consistently ranked as the world’s most expensive city.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the UK firm that conducted the
research, said the change in Nairobi’s ranking is linked to the steep
rise in the cost of six goods in a basket used to measure relative
The survey found that the Kenyan capital is particularly expensive for
the middle and upper class residents who consume luxury goods and
prefer private cars to public transport.
The high cost of living in the Kenyan capital is mainly driven by the
prices of consumer goods such as petrol, beers and wines. A litre of
petrol costs an average of $1.3 in Nairobi, up from $1.24 last year –
nearly five times the $0.35 price that consumers are charged in Cairo
and Lagos’ $0.61.
I reckon its cheaper to buy Groceries at Waitrose in London than in Nairobi.
The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.94 points to close at 108.36.
The Nairobi All Share is +14.231% in 2013 and has is at 60+ Month Highs.
The Nairobi ^NSE20 rallied 22.61 points to close at 4611.03.
The Nairobi ^NSE20 is +11.565% in 2013 and This is a 25 Month High.
EABL +17.358% in 2013, KCB +23.529% in 2013, Diamond Trust Bank
+21.739% in 2013, NIC Bank +18.954% and ScanGroup +9.489% set Fresh
All Time Highs today.
We remain in a Bull Market and we entered the Bull Market in May 2012.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
Sasini Tea and Coffee improved 2.155% to close at 11.85 and traded
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
Safaricom rallied 1.8% to close at 5.65 and was trading at Session
Highs of 5.70 +2.7% session Highs into the Finish Line. Safaricom
traded 9.357m shares worth 53.108m. Safaricom had Buy Side Demand for
259% more shares than were traded at the Finish Line. Safaricom is
+11.881% in 2013 and now targets its Intra Day and August 2010 High of
6.00 from the 9th of January. Safaricom trades on a Trailing PE of
Safaricom share price data here +11.881% 2013
Par Value: 0.05/-
Closing Price: 5.65
Total Shares Issued: 40000000000.00
Market Capitalization: 226,000,000,000
Scangroup firmed 0.6711% to set a Fresh All Time Closing High of 75.00
and traded 20,100 shares. ScanGroup is +9.489% in 2013. ScanGroup
trades on a Trailing PE of 29.412.
ScanGroup share price data +9.489% 2013 and a Record High
Access Kenya rallied 6.36% to close at 5.85 and traded 1.429m shares.
Access Kenya is +32.954% in 2013.
Access Kenya share price data +32.954% 2013
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Kenya Commercial Bank rallied 3.5211% to close at 36.75 and traded a
35.75-37.50 range and 2.248m shares worth 83.173m. Kenya Commercial
Bank has rallied +23.529% in 2013 and has struck a Sequence of All
Time Closing Highs. Kenya Commercial Bank traded 2.248m shares worth
83.173m. There was Buy Side Demand at the Finish Line for 221% more
shares than were traded during the Session and the Price Points at
40.00. Kenya Commercial Bank trades on a Trailing PE of 9.879.
Kenya Commercial Bank share Price data here +23.529% 2013 Record High
Par Value: 1/-
Closing Price: 36.75
Total Shares Issued: 2950170000.00
Market Capitalization: 108,418,747,500
Diamond Trust firmed 0.7194% to close at 140.00 a Fresh All Time
Closing High. Diamond Trust traded 77,200 shares. Diamond Trust is
+21.739% in 2013.
Diamond Trust +21.739% 2013 Record High
Equity Bank firmed 0.91% to close at 27.75 and traded 832,400 shares.
Equity Bank is +16.842% in 2013 and has closed at a 22 Month High.
Barclays Bank firmed 0.303% to close at 16.50 and traded 439,800 shares.
CFC StanBic eased 1.104% to close at 44.75 and traded 245,800 shares.
Standard Chartered Bank eased a shilling to close at 273.00 and traded
COOP Bank traded 208,000 shares and firmed 5 cents to close at 13.65.
NIC Bank firmed 1.11% to close at 45.50 which is a Fresh All Time
Closing High. NIC Bank traded a 44.50-46.00 range and was trading at
all time Intra Day Highs of 46.00 +2.22% at the Closing Bell. NIC Bank
traded 1.147m shares worth 52.786m. NIC Bank is +18.954% in 2013.
NIC Bank share price data here +18.954% 2013 Record High
Centum rallied 3.11% to close at 14.90 and traded 459,100 shares.
Centum is +20.6477% in 2013 and this is a 9 Month Closing High.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
EABL rallied 1.304% to close at 311.00 which is a Fresh All Time
Closing High in what has been a Sequence of them in 2013. EABL is
+17.358% in 2013. EABL will release H1 Earnings this month and
Investors sighted these Results via the Diageo Earnings Release and
evidently and properly liked what they saw. EABL traded a
307.00-312.00 range and was trading at session Highs of 312.00 +1.63%
session highs at the Closing Bell. EABL traded 411,400 shares worth
128.067m. EABL trades on a Trailing PE of 23.105 and is pointed
EABL share price data here +17.358% 2013 and at a Record High
Par Value: 2/-
Closing Price: 311.00
Total Shares Issued: 790774976.00
Market Capitalization: 245,931,017,536
BAT closed unchanged at 539.00 and traded 48,500 shares. BAT is
+9.775% in 2013 and 0.185% below a Record High reached Jan 14th
through Jan 18th this Year.
Athi River Mining eased 1.68% to close at 58.50 and traded 346,800
shares worth 20.446m. ARM is +31.165% in 2013 and has corrected 2.5%
off an All Time Closing High of 60.00 reached on the 7th of February.
Bamburi Cement did not trade.
East African Portland closed unchanged at 44.00 on light trading of 400 shares.
KenGen closed unchanged at 12.50 and traded 1.093m shares. KenGen is
+42.045% in 1013.
Kenya Power KPLC firmed 5 cents to close at 18.70 and traded 980,500 shares.