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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 12th of February 2013

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

@BarackObama 's Message to Kenyan People and a Tsunami of Messaging The Star

@JohnGithongo #Mindspeak Saturday 16th February @InterConNairobi

#Mindspeak is at the @InterConHotels #Nairobi Twitpic

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

My Little One Hannah makes me think of my Mother every single Day

And sometimes She becomes very capricious and tells me That I do not
love her and I tell her

That's just not True with an Intensity that she cannot challenge.

And The Older Girls take issue with me sometimes and say You are
really a very naive Dad.

And I turn to Hannah and say No it's not possible Hannah would never
play me, would You Darling?

The Beach Vipingo

read more

North Korea conducts 'nuclear test' Aljazeera
Law & Politics

North Korea has conducted a nuclear test, South Korea's defence
ministry says, after seismic activity measuring 4.9 magnitude was
registered by the US Geological Survey.

The epicentre of the seismic activity on Tuesday was close to the
North's known nuclear test site.

There was no confirmation from Pyongyang that it had conducted a test,
which it has been threatening for weeks.

The apparent nuclear test on Tuesday had an explosive yield of at
least 10 kilotons, signalling "enormous destructive power", South
Korea's defence ministry said citing seismic data.

"We suspect the explosive yield was around 10 kilotons [of TNT] or
greater... which indicates enormous destructive power," ministry
spokesman Kim Min-Seok told reporters.

He also said North Korea had informed China and the United States of
its plans to conduct a nuclear test. The South's official news agency
said the warning had been given on Monday to both capitals.

Yonhap initially reported a magnitude 4.9 "artificial earthquake" in
the northern tip of North Korea, where the communist state previously
conducted underground nuclear tests.

The tremor was recorded at 11:57 am local time on Tuesday.


It was expected and had been widely telegraphed.

The North announced plans for a third nuclear test in response to
sanctions imposed after a December rocket launch

Full text of Pope's declaration Vatican Radio

    Dear Brothers,

    I have convoked you to this Consistory, not only for the three
canonisations, but also to communicate to you a decision of great
importance for the life of the Church. After having repeatedly
examined my conscience before God, I have come to the certainty that
my strengths, due to an advanced age, are no longer suited to an
adequate exercise of the Petrine ministry.

    I am well aware that this ministry, due to its essential spiritual
nature, must be carried out not only with words and deeds, but no less
with prayer and suffering. However, in today’s world, subject to so
many rapid changes and shaken by questions of deep relevance for the
life of faith, in order to govern the bark of Saint Peter and proclaim
the Gospel, both strength of mind and body are necessary, strength
which in the last few months, has deteriorated in me to the extent
that I have had to recognise my incapacity to adequately fulfil the
ministry entrusted to me.

    For this reason, and well aware of the seriousness of this act,
with full freedom I declare that I renounce the ministry of Bishop of
Rome, Successor of Saint Peter, entrusted to me by the Cardinals on 19
April 2005, in such a way, that as from 28 February 2013, at 20:00
hours, the See of Rome, the See of Saint Peter, will be vacant and a
Conclave to elect the new Supreme Pontiff will have to be convoked by
those whose competence it is.

    Dear Brothers, I thank you most sincerely for all the love and
work with which you have supported me in my ministry and I ask pardon
for all my defects. And now, let us entrust the Holy Church to the
care of Our Supreme Pastor, Our Lord Jesus Christ, and implore his
holy Mother Mary, so that she may assist the Cardinal Fathers with her
maternal solicitude, in electing a new Supreme Pontiff. With regard to
myself, I wish to also devotedly serve the Holy Church of God in the
future through a life dedicated to prayer.

    From the Vatican, 10 February 2013



Everything might not be what it seems.

Rumors that the Pope might resign began last summer after the
so-called “Vatileaks” scandal NewYorker

 Rumors that the Pope might resign began last summer after the
so-called “Vatileaks” scandal, in which the Pope’s personal attendant
was arrested for stealing numerous documents from the Pontiff’s
correspondence. The letters revealed infighting among the highest
ranks of the Curia. Paolo Gabriele, the “Pope’s butler,” as he has
been called, justified his actions by saying that the Holy Father was
insufficiently aware of the less-than-holy things being done in his
name. The fact of the leaks and their contents suggested that the
elderly German Pope was not in full control of either his household or
the complex and powerful institution he was heading.

The last pope to resign was Gregory XII, in 1415

At the turn of the 15th century the papacy was contested between
popes, in Rome, and antipopes, in Avignon. The rival pontiffs
anathematised and excommunicated one another. But these disputes were
finally settled by the Council of Constance, 1414-18, which deposed
two antipopes and accepted the resignation of Pope Gregory XII, to
clear the decks for Martin V, a candidate who could be accepted by all

Before then, the last real resignation of an undisputed pope from
office was Clementine V, in 1294. He had not wanted election, but when
he managed to resign, he was imprisoned in a monastery for the rest of
his short life, lest he prove more popular than his successor.

Cardinals after Pope Benedict XVI told them of his resignation today.
Photograph: AP

Zombie apocalypse newsflash interrupts US TV schedule 'Dead bodies are
rising from their graves'

KRTV says on its website the hackers broadcast that "dead bodies are
rising from their graves" in several Montana counties. The network
says there is no emergency and its engineers are investigating.

"The message did not come from our station, and appears to be the
result of a hacker. Our engineers our looking into the origin of the
alert to make sure a similar occurrence does not happen again," KRTV

read more

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade

Euro 1.3386
Dollar Index 80.42 Dollar Index was at the highest level since Jan. 10 today.
Japan Yen 94.02 djfxtrader: Dollar Rises to Its Highest Level vs
Japan's Yen Since May 2010; Rises as High as Y94.11
Swiss Franc 0.9210
Pound 1.5650
Aussie 1.0254 touched 1.0241, the least since Oct. 23
India Rupee 53.93
South Korea Won 1091.40 touched 1,098.06.
Brazil Real 1.9726
Egypt Pound 6.7119
South Africa Rand 8.9626

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 94.04 Last

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.33836 Last

Calls for Cheap Euro: ECB Caught in Currency-War Crossfire Der Spiegel

A "tsunami" of cheap money is rolling across the world, Brazilian
President Dilma Rousseff said more than a year ago.

ECB President Draghi doesn't want to take part in the global
depreciation race either. True, the ECB repeatedly launched programs
to buy up government bonds during the euro crisis, to Weidmann's
dismay. But they seem tiny by international comparison, and apparently
Draghi has no intention to go any further. He sees no reason for a
change of course, he says, "just because other central banks are

On the other hand, someone standing in the middle of a battlefield
eventually has to defend himself. "Otherwise the euro exchange rate
would explode," says Jörg Krämer, chief economist at the major German
bank Commerzbank. But if the conflicts escalate, there can only be
losers, he added. "We would experience an international devaluation
race," Krämer warns. "This would invariably go hand in hand with
constantly rising inflation rates and a damaged global economy."


The ECB maintains a BundesBank's Philosophy in the Value of Sound
Money and in part that is why I remain bullish the Euro.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.433 Last

read more

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 96.93 Last

Crude for March delivery was at $96.89 a barrel, down 14 cents, in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:11 p.m.
Sydney time. The volume of all futures traded was 13 percent below the
100-day average. The contract increased $1.31 to $97.03 yesterday, the
most since Jan. 2 and the highest closing price since Feb. 1.

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1646.59 Last

Gold for immediate delivery lost as much as 0.3 percent to $1,642.90
an ounce, the cheapest since Jan. 4, and traded at $1,646.81 at 1:06
p.m. in Singapore.
Gold gained for a 12th year in 2012 as investors sought a hedge
against currency debasement. ETP assets backed by gold fell 0.14
percent to 2,611.41 metric tons yesterday, the biggest decline since
Jan. 24, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

read more

Dollar versus Rand 1 Year Chart INO 8.9599 Last

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO

Birds fly over an apartment building in Dakar, Senegal. Photograph by
Jane Hahn (@janehahn) Photo Booth

Hauwa and Femi celebrate their one-year wedding anniversary at their
home in Lagos Nigeria Photo Booth

read more

Kenya holds first-ever presidential debate @AJE
Kenyan Economy

Millions of Kenyans watched and listened to Monday's debate, broadcast
live on national television, as well as YouTube.


It was the Set Piece Political Occasion of the Year and a commendable
One, in my View.
I am not sure if any Candidate pushed the Dial meaningfully in their Favour.
No One made a terminal Blunder.
It was not very adversarial.

The historic debate dubbed “Presidential Debate 2013” was streamed
live in the country’s eight television stations and 34 radio stations
Standard Media

Experts poke holes in manifestos, term them cosmetic Standard

Kenya: A cross-section of market analysts have poked holes into party
manifestos fronted by major presidential candidates.

They term some of the promises on economic growth, jobs creation,
wealth creation and revenue generation as unrealistic.

“I think the Manifestos were essentially wish-lists. The key to
unlocking prosperity and effecting meaningful trickle-down effect is
raising the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) run rate to double digits
and keeping it there,” says Aly Khan Satchu, Chief Executive, Rich
Management Company Ltd, a Nairobi Securities Exchange data vendor that
offers investment advisory services.

“ In their party manifestos, I thought candidates were pulling the
cart before the horse.”

But market gurus reckon that the rosy development blueprints crafted
by politicians are plagiarised political tools designed to for propel
them to power. “Most of these manifestos are a copy and paste work.
They are not coherent on how they will be implemented,” said economist
David Ndii.

An analysis of the six manifestos tabled by six presidential
contenders — Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi, Peter
Kenneth, Martha Karua and Prof James Ole Kiyiapi reveals it all.

They attach strong emphasis towards tackling the unemployment levels
facing the youth and reducing poverty. “The Manifestos I thought did
not lay out a clear road map about achieving a faster GDP run rate -
They were more about spending the fruits rather than plucking them,”
Satchu told Business Beat.

Satchu said in the Kenyan context, good manifestos should lay out a
government divestment policy, and outline a clear road map towards
shrinking the Government’s recurrent expenditure footprint,

“I would have crafted my manifesto so that everyone could see the cost
versus benefit of every line item my policy was proposing,” he said.

The report indicates that unemployment would have to fall
significantly for any meaningful reduction in poverty to be achieved.
“Current growth projection of 6.2 per cent for 2012-2015 will only
create 560,000 job annually. This is not enough to address
unemployment problem and reduce poverty,” says Brop.

Technocrats at the Treasury argue the economy would have to expand
above 10 per cent, for close to one million new jobs to be created
each year.

Ongeri summoned European Union (EU) ambassadors on Monday to express
his "utmost displeasure" at what he claimed was an "orchestrated
attempt by a number ... to influence the way Kenyans conduct" their
forthcoming elections. Aljazeera

"The remarks made by EU envoys are clearly inflammatory and could have
the effect of polarising the country," Ongeri said in a statement
after the meeting.

Sent: Monday, 11 February, 2013 5:06:07 PM
Subject: URGENT - PRESS RELEASE - Statement by the European Union
regarding today's meeting at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs


Statement by the European Union regarding today’s meeting at the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs

European Union envoys were invited to a meeting with the Minister of
Foreign Affairs today.

Envoys rejected any allegation of interfering in the elections
process.  They were clear that it is for the Kenyan people to elect
their leaders. The European Union does not support any candidate for
any office. We trust the Kenyan people to make wise decisions and
elect responsible leaders.

Envoys strongly refute making any statements that could incite
violence. To the contrary, the European Union has been helping to
build a peaceful Kenya, supporting the judicial process of
reconciliation following the last elections, as well as the
implementation of the Constitution. The EU has supported Kenya's
ability to hold free, fair and transparent elections this time round.
At no time has the European Union made any statements regarding the
outcome of the elections.

Free and fair elections will create the stable and secure environment
necessary to continue to attract foreign investment to fuel Kenya’s
growth and to create jobs, especially for the youth. Election-related
violence risks harming the economy and people’s livelihoods as
investors, businesses and tourists stay away from Kenya.

At the request of the Government of Kenya, the EU and its Member
States contribute to financing the election through a United Nations
Development Programme fund, and support the IEBC and civil society in
voter and civic education and through a long-term electoral mission.

The European Union and other like-minded states have a long-standing
policy, not limited to Kenya, to have only essential contact with
indicted ICC suspects.

The European Union supports an end to impunity and supports the rule
of law in Kenya.  Regardless who is elected President, cooperation
with the International Criminal Court is of vital importance to create
accountability for political violence and build a stable Kenya. The
European Union Member States are state parties to the Rome Statue and
bound by its legal obligations, as much as Kenya is.

Signed by European Union Ambassadors, High Commissioners and Chargés
d'Affaires from:

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, European Union,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland,
Romania, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom.


A Tsunami of Messaging The Star

Now how do we parse this deluge of comments? We self- referred
ourselves to the ICC with our mantra ‘Don’t be Vague Let’s go to The
Hague.’ So the idea that this is an evil conspiracy hatched outside
Kenya does not stack up. We self-selected the ICC. Interestingly, the
myth around the ICC has consolidated the vote on a tribal basis. And
the messages we heard last week from our western partners has only
consolidated it further. In fact, it’s very counter intuitive but
commentary from the West has actually snagged votes for Uhuru Kenyatta
and William Ruto and my analysis now shows they have a shot at taking
this lock, stock and barrel in the 1st Round.

The sanctions risk is [in my view] only triggered if having won the
popular mandate the newly minted president and his deputy decide to
skip the ICC process.

And whilst many folks tend to pose the question back to me ‘Would You
go, Aly-Khan?’

I will take Mr Kenyatta at his word. He wins big and confounds
everyone by making his way to the Hague.

Japanese conglomerate Toyota Tsusho Corporation has established a
regional headquarters in Nairobi Business Daily

Japanese conglomerate Toyota Tsusho Corporation has established a
regional headquarters in Nairobi, setting the stage for big-ticket
investments in Kenya and its neighbouring states.The new office will
search for investment opportunities in the energy, oil, agricultural,
and health sectors as the company ramps up its local portfolio of

It is the latest multinational to establish its regional headquarters
in Nairobi, asserting the country’s position as a favourite investment
destination in Eastern Africa.

“The establishment of a hub in East Africa will provide access to
countries surrounding the EAC and new business opportunities in those
countries too,” Toyota said in a statement.

The firm’s existing local investments include a new vehicle dealership
(Toyota Kenya), used car sales (Toyotsu Auto Mart), and its contract
to build KenGen’s Olkaria I and IV geothermal plants that will produce
280 megawatts of power.

It has made a bid to construct the proposed Lamu-Juba oil pipeline
that is estimated to cost $5 billion, with the firm eyeing major
investments in the regional pharmaceutical distribution and commercial

Toyota says the restructuring is aimed at taking advantage of more
investment opportunities created under the East African Community, an
economic integration of five regional states.

Its current and prospective portfolio of investments in Kenya and the
region will be managed from the new office in Nairobi as opposed to
South Africa as was the case previously.

The new operation, dubbed Toyota Tsusho East Africa, will succeed the
current Kenya-focused office in Nairobi which is scheduled to be
closed at the end of next month.It will be in charge of the
conglomerate’s business in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and
Rwanda. Toyota says the East African office will in the long term have
significant  interests in the automotive, logistics, chemical, farm
mechanisation, and geothermal sectors.

The firm’s regional headquarters in Nairobi further boosts the
capital’s profile as a regional investment hub, joining other
multinationals such as General Electric, PepsiCo, and Beiqi Foton that
have set up similar operations.

An influx of foreign direct investment is seen as critical in creating
new jobs and boosting exports that in turn earn foreign exchange.


Japan has become a little more earnest and vigorous about its Africa
Engagement and this is but the latest and most visible Example.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +14.231% in 2013

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +11.565% in 2013 a 25 Month High

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

read more

N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.87 points to close at 109.23.
The Nairobi All Share is +15.1486% so far in 2013.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index rallied 22.45 points to close at 4633.48.
The Nairobi NSE20 is +12.0977% in 2013 and has closed at a 27 Month High.
The Equity Markets entered a Bull Market in May 2012.
The Rally has gathered speed and Traction in 2013.
Equity Turnover today was 983.871m and the heightened Volumes attest
to the Bona Fides of the Bull Market.
I think there is Plenty of Headroom.
We remain below levels seen in Q4 2007 and believe those are the
Levels to which we are headed.
Today Kenya Commercial Bank +28.571% in 2013 and EABL +18.49% and NIC
Bank +22.222% set Fresh All Time Closing Highs.
EABL will release its keenly awaited H1 Earnings Friday Morning before
the Opening Bell.
The Next Leg Higher will be driven by Local Retail and Institutional
Investors who have for the most part missed this Rally and will
capitulate soon.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

George Williamson firmed 4.48% to close at 210.00 and traded 2,500
shares. Williamson Tea trades on a Trailing PE of 2.24.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom firmed 0.88% to close at 5.70 and traded 25.566m shares
worth 145.725m. Safaricom is +12.871% so far in 2013 and is set to
test its 2013 Intra Day High of 6.00 from the 9th of January.
Safaricom trades on a Trailing PE of 17.8125.

Safaricom share price data here +12.871% 2013

Access Kenya rallied 8.545% to close at 6.45 and was trading at 6.40
+9.4% Session highs at the Finish Line. Access Kenya traded 110,800
shares. Access Kenya has rallied 44.3181% in 2013. Access Kenya trades
on a Trailing PE of 12.16981. This is a 19 Month Closing High.

Access Kenya share price data here +44.3181% 2013

Kenya Airways ticked 0.925% higher to close at 10.90 and traded 277,800 shares.

Scangroup closed unchanged at 75.00 an All Time High and traded 16,900 shares.

Longhorn Kenya fell 8.91% to close at 9.20 and just 2.22% away from
its All time Low since it was introduced via a Listing in May 2012.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank rallied a further 4.081% to close at a Fresh
Record Closing High of 38.25. KCB traded a 37.00-39.00 range and The
Session High of 39.00 is a Fresh All Time High Intra Day Print. Kenya
Commercial Bank traded 996,000 shares. KCB is +28.571% in 2013.

Kenya Commercial Bank share price data here +28.571% All Time Record High

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           38.25
Total Shares Issued:          2950170000.00
Market Capitalization:        112,844,002,500
EPS:             3.72
PE:                 10.282

Standard Chartered firmed 1.465% to close at 277.00 and traded 37,000
shares. Standard Chartered is +17.87% in 2013 and this is a 30 Month
Closing High. Standard Chartered trades on a Trailing PE of 14.005 and
through Q3 2012 accelerated PAT +

Standard Chartered share price data here +17.87% 2013 30 Month Closing High

COOP Bank firmed 1.46% to close at 13.85 and traded 802,000 shares.
Barclays Bank traded 3.414m shares and closed unchanged at 16.50.
Barclays Bank is +4.761% in 2013.
Diamond Trust Bank eased 0.714% off a record Closing High to closed at
139.00 and traded 149,800 shares.
Equity Bank eased 0.9009% to close at 27.50 and traded 946,000 shares.

NIC Bank firmed 2.185% to set a Fresh All Time Closing High at 46.75.
NIC Bank traded 1.392m shares. NIC Bank is +22.222% in 2013.

NIC Bank share price data here +22.222% in 2013 Record Closing High

Jubilee firmed 3.664% to close at 198.00 and traded 47,400 shares.
Jubilee is +14.45% in 2013.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange.
EABL firmed 0.964% to set a Fresh All Time Closing High of 314.00.
EABL traded 1.430m shares. EABL is +18.49% in 2013 and has set a
Sequence of All Time Closing Highs. EABL will release its keenly
awaited H1 Earnings Pre Market Opening this Friday.

EABL share price data here +18.49% 2013 and a Record Closing High

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           314.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774976.00
Market Capitalization:        248,303,342,464
EPS:             13.46
PE:                 23.328

Kenya Power firmed 1.604% to close at 19.00 and traded 2.040m shares.
Kenya Power is +11.11% in 2013 and this is a 19 Month High.
KenGen ticked 5 cents lower to close at 12.45 and traded 147,000
shares. KenGen is 41.477% in 2013.

KenGen share price data here +41.477% 2013

Crown Berger rebounded 4.29% to close at 42.50 and traded 4,500 shares.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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February 2013

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