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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 19th of February 2013
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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@JohnGithongo at #Mindspeak You must vote we all have a stake Twitpic
Africa


I thank Dr. @HCCTurner The British High Commissioner to Kenya for the
Invite last Night to his Residence to hear about How we are going to
Save The Elephants. Thank You.

I had the Opportunity to meet Saba whom You might have seen on your TV Screens.

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Dr @HCCTurner was a wonderful Guest at #Mindspeak Last Year RICH TV
Africa


Diplomacy is Darwinian and Digital Dr. @HCCTurner Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/apuzfj

I of course Love Elephants.

Elephants crossing the Ewaso Nyiro River #Samburu #Kenya Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/725sv8

Elephants in the Masai Mara #Fairmont Safari Camp Video
http://www.twitpic.com/84alg2

Elephants in the Maasai Mara Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/87mnfs

This Bull Elephant blocked our Way in the Forest Lewa Kenya
http://www.twitpic.com/41wib1

Macro Thoughts


Home Thoughts

I thank Linus Gitahi, Sam Shollei, Patrick Quarcoo and William Pike
for the incisive and wide ranging Conversation last night over Dinner
with Tim Carstens.

read more


Lichtenstein’s Comic Explosions, Mickey Mouse Rock Tate Bloomberg
Africa


Effectively, Lichtenstein’s career as a major artist began one day
when his son David came home from school, complaining: All his
friends’ fathers had proper jobs, whereas his own was a painter and
couldn’t even draw.

To keep him quiet, Lichtenstein did a painting out of a children’s
book: Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. The latter is saying, “Look
Mickey, I’ve hooked a big one.”

And Lichtenstein himself accidentally stumbled on a big idea: that the
dots, solid colors, and simple outlines of commercial art could be
used to make sophisticated and subtle paintings. It was a sudden leap
into pop.
Comic Sensation

Within a short time, Lichtenstein was a New York art world sensation.
It is from this period in the mid-1960s that most of his best-known
images come: the comic book pictures. One of the surprises of the
exhibition is that there are not all that many of them. They fill a
large gallery under the heading “Love and War.”

Conclusions

I think this was the Exhibition I visited when I was in Washington last Year.

Morning from the IFC and the World Bank #Washington 105 Days ago Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/bakqbk

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Hugo Chávez returns home to Venezuela
Law & Politics


Chávez's return was announced in a series of three messages on his
Twitter account, the first reading: "We've arrived once again in our
Venezuelan homeland. Thank you, my God!! Thank you, beloved nation!!
We will continue our treatment here." They were the first messages to
appear on Chávez's Twitter account since 1 November. "I'm clinging to
Christ and trusting in my doctors and nurses," Chávez said in another
tweet. "Onward toward victory always!! We will live and we will
triumph!!"

Chávez thanked Fidel and Raúl Castro, who have overseen his treatment
in Cuba, and thanked his country's people "for so much love"

Even though the nominee is “the most unimpressive that I’ve ever
seen,” McCain said, “I’m confident that Senator Hagel will probably
have the votes necessary.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-17/vote-on-hagel-s-nomination-may-come-quickly-mccain-says.html

“You’re talking about a person whose voting record shows softness on
Iran and antagonism toward Israel beyond belief,” Graham said on the
“Fox News Sunday” program. “He’d be the most antagonistic senator
toward the state of Israel in history.”

Conclusions

But The Point is he is seeking Appointment as the US Defence Secretary
and not Israel's.

This disturbing image shows the back of the head of a child or young
man as seen in the crosshairs of a rifle via Instagram
http://antiwar.com/blog/2013/02/18/israeli-soldier-posts-instagram-photo-of-palestinian-child-in-crosshairs/

Mark Curtis
http://www.markcurtis.info/

Why Baluchistan? Gwadar serves as a Chinese port and the starting
point for a logistical corridor through Pakistan and into Chinese
territory.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/destroying-a-nation-state-us-saudi-funded-terrorists-sowing-chaos-in-pakistan/5323295

Image: Why Baluchistan? Gwadar in the southwest serves as a Chinese
port and the starting point for a logistical corridor through Pakistan
and into Chinese territory. The Iranian-Pakistani-Indian pipeline
would enter from the west, cross through Baluchistan intersecting
China’s proposed logistical route to the northern border, and continue
on to India. Destabilizing Baluchistan would effectively derail the
geopolitical aspirations of four nations.

Harrison’s February 2011 piece, “Free Baluchistan,” calls to “aid the
6 million Baluch insurgents fighting for independence from Pakistan in
the face of growing ISI repression.” He continues by explaining the
various merits of such meddling by stating:

    “Pakistan has given China a base at Gwadar in the heart of Baluch
territory. So an independent Baluchistan would serve U.S. strategic
interests in addition to the immediate goal of countering Islamist
forces.”

Harrison would follow up his frank call to carve up Pakistan by
addressing the issue of Chinese-Pakistani relations in a March 2011
piece titled, “The Chinese Cozy Up to the Pakistanis.” He states:

    “China’s expanding reach is a natural and acceptable accompaniment
of its growing power—but only up to a point. ”

He continues:

    “To counter what China is doing in Pakistan, the United States
should play hardball by supporting the movement for an independent
Baluchistan along the Arabian Sea and working with Baluch insurgents
to oust the Chinese from their budding naval base at Gwadar. Beijing
wants its inroads into Gilgit and Baltistan to be the first step on
its way to an Arabian Sea outlet at Gwadar.”

Conclusions

This is my Point about inflaming the Chinese Periphery.  And Gwadar is
part of the Chinese Periphery.

Iranian warships to dock at Chinese ports: Navy cmdr.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/02/17/289457/iran-warships-to-dock-at-chinese-ports/

Iran Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari says a fleet of
Iranian warships will be docking at the Strait of Malacca and China in
the near future.

In line with guidelines from the Leader of the Islamic Revolution
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei to sail international waters and assert
Iran’s maritime authority, Iranian naval forces have been sent to the
high seas, said Sayyari Sunday.

The Iranian naval commander added that the presence of Iranian
warships in international waters does not pose a threat to other
countries, stressing that based on international law Tehran has the
right to sail the high seas.

Sayyari said the Iranian Navy plans to station warships in the Strait
of Malacca -- a narrow 805-kilometer (500-mile) stretch of water
between the Malay Peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra - in
the near future.

Iran's Navy commander concluded that Iranian ships have been
conducting anti-piracy missions in the northern Indian Ocean over the
past three years, and have docked at ports in Saudi Arabia, Sudan and
Djibouti.

Iranian warships will soon dock in Chinese ports, Sayyari concluded.

Iranian-built destroyer Jamaran (file photo)

Conclusions

The Iranians are nothing if not bold.

Srinagar, India: A paramilitary soldier stands guard near an armoured
vehicle during a strike called by Kashmiri separatists
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/gallery/2013/feb/18/24-hours-in-pictures#/?picture=404267801&index=10

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade


Euro 1.3345
Dollar Index 80.59
Japan Yen 93.52
Swiss Franc 0.9236
Pound 1.5484 touched 1.5439, the least since July 13.
Aussie 1.0327
India Rupee 54.27
South Korea Won 1080.90
Brazil Real 1.9626
Egypt Pound 6.73
South Africa Rand 8.9278

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.33531 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

djfxtrader: Draghi: Sees Very Gradual Recovery Later in 2013
djfxtrader: Draghi: Exchange Rate Isn't Policy Target
djfxtrader: Draghi: We Have Yet to See Sustained Improvement in Real Economy
djfxtrader: Draghi: We Will Closely Monitor Money Mkt Conditions
djfxtrader: Draghi: Risks to Economic Outlook Remain on the Downside

Conclusions

The Weakness in the European Economy is a Known Known. The Currency
War [and just because the G20 did not characterise it as such does not
detract from the Fact that it is One] Crossfire essentially gives the
Euro an upwards Bias and I feel philosophically the Europeans have the
strongest intrinsic Belief in the Value of Sound Money.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 93.66 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.585 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Danone, the owner of Evian bottled- water and Activia yogurt, said it
plans to cut 900 jobs in Europe to help address declining
profitability Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/danone-to-cut-900-jobs-after-full-year-profitability-declines.html

Demand for Danone’s dairy products, which account for more than half
of sales, has weakened in southern Europe as the region’s debt crisis
pushes shoppers toward cheaper private- label products. Nelson Peltz,
the activist investor who said in November that his Trian Fund
Management LP owned a 1 percent stake in the company, has called for
management to pare costs and focus on cash returns.

“2013 will be a year of transition,” Chief Executive Officer Franck
Riboud said in today’s statement. “A year aimed at returning our
activities as a whole to strong, profitable growth by 2014.”

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Crude Oil 5 Day Chart INO 95.88 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=NYMEX_CL.J13.E

Futures lost as much as 0.6 percent, compounding a 1.5 percent decline
on Feb. 15, the most since Feb. 4. Floor trading on the New York
Mercantile Exchange was closed yesterday because of a holiday in the
U.S.

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1613.61 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Trades soft.

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Brazil’s Swap Rates Climb on Inflation Outlook Bloomberg
Emerging Markets


Brazil’s swap rates rose on renewed speculation that policy makers may
increase benchmark borrowing costs this year to contain inflation
running faster than the central bank’s target.Swap rates rose, with
the contract due in January 2015 increasing 16 basis points, or 0.16
percentage point, to 8.45 percent at the close of trading in Sao
Paulo. The real advanced 0.3 percent to 1.9633 per dollar, after
earlier gaining as much as 0.5 percent. U.S. markets are closed today
for a national holiday.

Finance Minister Guido Mantega said last week that the government will
do whatever it takes to fight inflation and signaled an interest-rate
increase may be an option. The pace of price increases in Brazil
reached a one-year high of 6.15 percent in January and has exceeded
the 4.5 percent mid-point of policy makers’ target for more than two
years.

“The official discourse about inflation has changed,” Flavio Serrano,
a senior economist at Banco Espirito Santo de Investimentos, said by
phone from Sao Paulo. “It’s possible that they’ll use a mix of
policies, with the currency a little stronger and some increase in
borrowing costs.”

Economists lowered their Brazil growth forecasts, predicting gross
domestic product will expand 3.08 percent this year and 3.65 percent
in 2014, according to the median estimate in a central bank survey of
about 100 analysts published today. That compares with last week’s
projections for growth of 3.09 percent in 2013 and 3.80 percent next
year. The analysts also cut their forecast for 2013 inflation for the
first time since November, to 5.70 percent from 5.71 percent.

Conclusions

Buy The Real. Preferably closer to 2.00. There has been a Trend Change
in the Rhetoric and 2.00 is The New Line in the Sand but this time the
other way around. Previously They were not prepared to let it trade
below that level now they are not prepared to let it trade above that
Level.

Brazil Real 1 Year Chart INO 1.9612 [Buy The Real Run the Carry]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDBRL&t=&a=&w=&v=d12

Frontier Markets

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EU lifts bans on 21 loyalists of Zimbabwe’s president citingconstitutional reforms WAPO
Africa


HARARE, Zimbabwe — The European Union said Monday it has removed 21
loyalists of Zimbabwe’s president from a sanctions list of people
facing travel and banking bans.

The EU said another six cabinet ministers from President Robert
Mugabe’s party are also now allowed to travel to Europe.

It said the decision to remove those restrictions was a result of a
“step forward” in finalizing a draft constitution which is set to go
voted on in a national referendum on March 16.

The draft constitution “adds further momentum to the reform process
and paves way for the holding of peaceful, transparent and credible
elections later this year,” said the EU statement.

Those freed to travel and do business in Europe include former cabinet
ministers, officials and one company linked to Mugabe’s party. Another
101 individuals and companies remain on the banned list.

The EU decision was made at a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers
and the announcement was made in a statement released simultaneously
in Harare and Brussels and read out in Zimbabwe by EU chief of
delegation Aldo Dell’Ariccia.

Among the ministers from Mugabe’s party allowed to visit Europe is
Webster Shamu, the information minister who controls the state media.

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, the former opposition leader in a
four-year old coalition with Mugabe that was formed regional mediators
after violent and disputed elections in 2008, told reporters later
Monday that there has been no “political will” to implement much
needed reforms to create an “enabling environment” for free and fair
elections.

Tsvangirai said media reforms must be put in place immediately because
it “would be unfair to go for elections with the kind of media we
have.”

Virulent criticism of Mugabe’s opponents, comparable to hate speech,
has continued in state-controlled media run by Shamu, said Tsvangirai.

In an election year, the media should promote all opinions to ensure a
free vote, he said.

The EU statement made no mention of reports in the state media on
Monday that EU members Britain, the former colonial power, and Belgium
made a deal to allow Antwerp diamond dealers to buy diamonds from
Zimbabwe’s eastern fields long mired in allegations of killing, human
rights abuses and corruption by Mugabe loyalists in the police and
military.

Conclusions

Some Forward Motion.

I think President Mugabe wins any Election, in fact.

Malawian Kwacha Hits Decade Low as Foreign Reserves Decline Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-18/malawian-kwacha-hits-decade-low-as-foreign-reserves-decline.html

 Malawi’s kwacha dropped to the lowest in almost a decade as the
Southern African country’s foreign-exchange reserves dwindled further.

The kwacha retreated 1.7 percent to 370 a dollar at 5:18 p.m. in
Lilongwe, the capital, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has
fallen 9.5 percent this year and is at the weakest since June 22,
1993, when Bloomberg began compiling data on the currency.

“Liquidity in the foreign-exchange market is extremely limited,
particularly offshore, with the supply of dollars very, very thin,”
Yvette Babb, a strategist at Standard Bank Group Ltd. in London, said
in an e-mailed reply to questions. “These dynamics continue to exert
upward pressure on the currency.”

Malawi’s foreign-currency reserves have declined 18 percent to $192
million, or 1.01 months of import cover, since a year earlier,
according to the Reserve Bank of Malawi.

Conclusions

Joyce Banda's International Partners will need to pony up some Hard
Currency soonish.

Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index Year To Date +18.42% 51 Month
Highs [Best Performer in Africa 2013]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Dollar versus Rand 5 Day Chart INO 8.9066 [Convinced it moves
sustainably over 9.00]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=FOREX_USDZAR

At least 13 wounded in South African mine fight: police Yahoo News
http://news.yahoo.com/five-workers-shot-amplats-mine-south-africa-tv-134350433--finance.html

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - At least 13 workers were wounded by rubber
bullets or machetes in fighting at a mine in South Africa on Monday in
the first major mine violence this year after deadly strife in the
sector in 2012.

 Police said the violence started when four likely NUM workers on
special leave tried to occupy the union office at the mine in the
Rustenburg region, about 120 km (70 miles) northwest of Johannesburg.
About 1,000 suspected AMCU workers gathered to force them out.

"The alleged NUM members survived by running for their lives," police
spokesman Thulani Ngubane said in a statement.

The mine's security guards used rubber bullets to disperse the rival
union members. The 13 have been admitted to hospital and there were no
fatalities, police said.

Conclusions

Mining remains a Tinderbox.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg Year To Date +3.48%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.7288 Last [7.00 is a Shoe In]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg Year To Date +4.18%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EGX30:IND

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IMF foresees 5.8 pct growth in Kenya if violence avoided @KatrinaManson FT
Kenyan Economy


The International Monetary Fund predicts growth in Kenya will rise to
5.8 per cent this year, if a repeat of the election violence that sent
growth crashing in east Africa’s largest economy in 2008 is avoided.

The forecast – up from earlier predictions of a 5 per cent expansion –
comes little more than a fortnight ahead of March 4 presidential
polls.

“Orderly elections could . . . trigger a very positive scenario in
which foreign investors pour in and accelerate growth and lay down the
basis for the transformation of the Kenyan economy . . . into an
emerging market economy,” Domenico Fanizza, assistant director for
Africa, told the Financial Times. Growth in 2012 was 4.7 per cent.

He said he had not expected so much foreign investment to pour into
the stock market in the past few months and that the central bank has
helped stave off weakness in the shilling.

But he said that should forthcoming elections result in violence, the
economy could become unstuck. Growth in 2008 fell to 1.5 per cent,
down from 7 per cent growth the year before, when violence followed
disputed election results at the end of 2007. Mr Fanizza added that
the global financial meltdown was also responsible in part for the
fall.

“[If it] becomes so violent and so bad as in 2007 it would be a major
shock [to the economy],” Mr Fanizza said.

But while the World Bank predicts growth could fall to 3 per cent if
the elections go badly, the IMF said they are resisting worst-case
scenarios. “Frankly if something like 2007 happens again all the bets
are off. What’s the point of saying growth will be one per cent . . .?
We’ll have to start from scratch,” he said.

Mr Fanizza said growth in the regional hub has been supported by a
growing middle class. “The main drivers of growth are no longer
exports but actually domestic activity – ICT and financial sector
development and the emergence of a middle class steadily increasing
domestic demand.”

Kenya’s ICT sector has grown 20 per cent a year for the past decade.
Nearly every adult in the country now has a mobile telephone and
millions rely on handsets to transfer money, make savings and take out
loans. Mr Fanizza, who said he would recommend that his board disburse
its penultimate $100m loan tranche in April, also pointed to success
in reducing public debt and limiting spending despite wage pressures.
He said the debt to GDP ratio should reach 41 per cent by 2016, down
from 43.7 per cent now.

IMF to help State develop policy on mineral wealth Nation [Domeinco
has some Crazy Spectacles]
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/IMF-to-help-State-develop-policy/-/1006/1697762/-/8y4ike/-/index.html

A team experts from the International Monetary Fund is in the country
to assist the government in developing a policy to manage the national
mineral wealth.

In a telephone interview yesterday, the IMF resident representative
Regnar Gudmundsson said the team of five has already held meetings
with delegates from the ministries of Energy, Environment and Mineral
Resources, Finance and the Kenya Revenue Authority with the aim of
understanding the legal framework currently governing the sector.

“The five-member team has been in the country since February 12 and
will use the information gathered through those meetings to advise on
future legislation,” Mr Gudmundsson said.

Last week, Finance Minister Njeru Githae said the Treasury had
approached the Bretton Woods institution to assist in the formulation
of a fiscal policy on mineral wealth following the recent discovery of
oil and gas deposits in the country.

“We have approached the IMF to assist us in coming up with a fiscal
policy on mineral wealth. This will enable us put in place the right
systems to deal with potentially viable mineral discoveries to avert
possible chaos that can come up as a result of these discoveries,”
said Mr Githae

Conclusions

Thats a progressive Move because There has been just too much Vol
around Policy Maker Utterances.

Honourable Minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere Zepapa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/8en9ew

read more



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


The shilling has lost 1.7 percent against to the dollar so far this year

However, the interbank rate came off slightly on Friday, dipping to
9.85 percent from 9.91 percent a day earlier on improved liquidity as
banks hold on to their shillings, Kendagor said.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg Year To Date +12.502% 2013
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi All Share is +12.502% in 2013 and has corrected 2.5388% over 3
Sessions and since closing at a Multi Year and 2013 High.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +10.646% 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Nairobi NSE20 has corrected 75 Points and 1.613% over 3 Sessions and
since closing at a 27 Month High 3 Sessions ago

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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