|Friday 22nd of February 2013
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
I thank The Australian High Commissioner HE Geoff Tooth & Joanne Tooth
for the invite to the Film Premiere of ‘NI SISI’ a film about Peace &
Japan’s Popular Prime Minister @AbeShinzo Heads to Washington Businessweek
Law & Politics
As Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, prepares to meet with President
Obama on Friday, the premier enjoys something rare for a Japanese
So far, Abe is bucking the trend. Since taking office in December,
following a landslide win for his Liberal Democratic Party, Abe has
followed through on promises to weaken the yen and help improve the
competitiveness of Japanese exporters. The currency has gone from 82.5
to the dollar at the beginning of December to 93.5 now, and may soon
near the 100 threshold.On Jan. 28, Abe’s government raised its growth
forecast for the new fiscal year to 2.5 percent, up from an earlier
estimate of 1.7 percent.
According to a Nikkei poll, Abe was the first prime minister in more
than a decade to enjoy an increase in popularity after his first month
in office. His approval rating went up six points, to 68 percent,
according to the Japanese newspaper.
On Wednesday, Abe took to Facebook (FB) (yes, the Japanese prime
minister has a Facebook page) to talk about what comes next after
addressing the currency and deflation: “Finally we will begin, in
earnest, our discussions on the growth strategy—‘the third prong of
our economic policy,’” Abe’s office wrote. “Today at the Council on
Industrial Competitiveness meeting, we decided upon a policy to
compile electric system reforms that will fundamentally reconsider the
monopoly held by electric companies until now. In addition, the
Council also decided to go beyond the current thinking and approach
agriculture as a growth industry and export industry in which young
people will wish to involve themselves.”
Abe will no doubt be looking to Obama for support in Japan’s ongoing
dispute with China over islands in the East China Sea. In a sign that
the Japanese leader isn’t in a mood to back down, he took an
unyielding stance in an interview yesterday with the Washington Post.
Abe said that “in the case of China, teaching patriotism [is
equivalent to] teaching anti-Japanese sentiment.” That’s a bit rich,
as the Post pointed out, since Abe focused on encouraging more
patriotic education in Japanese schools during his first stint as
prime minister back in 2006-07.
The Come Back Kid 安倍晋三 @AbeShinzo has grasped the Opportunity this 2nd
time around with both Hands. He has wrestled the Currency Lower and
taken an ahead of the Curve Position in what is a Currency War [Just
because the G20 chose not to characterise it as such does not mean it
is not one - In Fact, I have found when Policy Makers protest too much
about something not being it invariably is] and managed to torpedo the
Yen before the Blowback could get started. So in that Respect, he has
moved with Despatch. The Interesting Point is the Quid Pro Quo with
the US. I think @BarackObama 's Pivot to Asia's Point Man is
@AbeShinzo and thats why he has been given a Free Pass to take the Yen
to a 100.00. The Open Question remains around the Pivot to Asia and
the Encirclement of China and China's Response. Whilst China have
ratcheted their response higher, it seems that Japan has proven they
have a high Pain threshold and so far can withstand the Chinese
Counterpunch. The US Response to China's Acquisition of the Gwadar
Port in Pakistan [which is an attempted break out of the Encirclement]
is worth watching very closely indeed.
Robert Mugabe said he had a "divine task" to lead Zimbabwe Reuters
"Why is it that all my friends are gone and my relatives are gone and
I continue to linger on? Then I say to myself, well, it's not my
choice, it's God's choice," Mugabe said at the party late on
Wednesday, which was attended by state media.
"This is a task the Lord might have wanted me to fulfill among my
people...," he said. "I read it as a bidding of God... The bidding
says you move forward ever."
I do not see ZANU-PF losing.
President Robert Mugabe
Syria The death of a country Economist
AFTER the first world war Syria was hacked from the carcass of the
Ottoman empire. After the second, it won its independence. After the
fighting that is raging today it could cease to function as a state.
As the world looks on (or away), the country jammed between Turkey,
Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Israel is disintegrating. Perhaps the regime
of Bashar Assad, Syria’s president, will collapse in chaos; for some
time it could well fight on from a fortified enclave, the biggest
militia in a land of militias. Either way, Syria looks increasingly
likely to fall prey to feuding warlords, Islamists and gangs—a new
Somalia rotting in the heart of the Levant.
Part of the reason for the West’s hesitancy is that, from the start of
the uprising in 2011, Mr Assad has embraced a strategy of violence. By
attacking the Arab spring with tanks and gunships, he turned peaceful
demonstrators into armed militias. By shelling cities he uprooted his
people. By getting his Alawite brethren to massacre the Sunni
majority, he has drawn in jihadists and convinced Syrians from other
sects to stick with him for fear that his own fall will lead to
It really behoves the Economist to be a little more honest.
''By attacking the Arab spring with tanks and gunships, he turned
peaceful demonstrators into armed militias.''
The Cause and Effect is not as plain as You state, not at all. To most
Observers, who accept Assad's State was always a Securocracy and an
unpleasant one, The Armed Rebellion was never an Indigenous Syrian
Thing. It was aided and abetted by Syria's Sunni Neighbiours, who were
never concerned by the plight of the Average Syrian.
The Armed Rebellion is characterised as primarily external, mostly
mercenary and was designed to deal a fatal Blow to Iran. Lets cut the
mealy mouthed Handwringing and understand that Syria has been caught
in the Crosshairs of a Geopolitical Sting whose real Object was
In fact, the Current State of Syria, ie crippled and on its knees is
an optimal Outcome for those who aided, abetted and financed the Armed
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
`My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away".
"This is not a containment mission, this is an eradication mission," Abdul-Kadir African commander Reuters
Law & Politics
The African military force (AFISMA) drawn mainly from Mali's neighbors
is accelerating deployment in support of around 4,000 French soldiers
already on the ground in the Sahel nation, said its commander Nigerian
Major General Shehu Abdul-Kadir.
"This is not a containment mission, this is an eradication mission,"
Abdul-Kadir told Reuters in an interview in Bamako.
Some 70 percent of the African troops, expected to number more than
8,000 at full strength, have deployed to Mali, according to figures
provided by the force. But African units mostly remain in the south,
meaning French and Malian troops are bearing the brunt of
responsibility for security in the north.
Abdul-Kadir said this showed the kind of asymmetrical war that Mali
and its French and African allies were facing.
"You know how the terrorists operate ... they are with us, they are
around us and they are far away from us," the general said, wearing
light desert camouflage.
Abdul-Kadir said France's military intervention since January 11,
which has involved hundreds of air strikes, special forces parachute
drops and fast-moving advances by armored columns, had "depleted" the
Abdul-Kadir said the African force still needed strike helicopters and
medical evacuation helicopters.
"The international cooperation is good, but, like Oliver Twist, we
wouldn't say no to more!" he added with a smile.
Boys play on the roof of the entrance to a football stadium in Gao Guardian
Kenyan prime minister denounces plot to rig presidential vote Reuters
Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga on Thursday accused the head of the
civil service of recruiting officials to back his main rival's
presidential campaign as part of a wider plan to rig the election next
Odinga, who narrowly leads Uhuru Kenyatta in opinion polls ahead of
the presidential vote, said the plot centered around Francis Kimemia,
cabinet secretary and chief civil servant, and included plans to
intimidate courts and coerce village administrative officials to back
"We see a pattern emerging which is very akin to what we saw in 2007,
civil servants being involved in the campaigns," said Odinga, who has
written to the electoral commission to complain.
Kimemia denied involvement in any rigging plot and ordered a probe
into the allegations by police and intelligence services.
On Wednesday, Kenya's chief justice said he and other judges had been
threatened by criminals who told them not to try to stop Kenyatta
running for the presidency.
"The claims by the prime minister are raising concern. It could be a
way of preparing to reject the election results once they are
announced," said Macharia Munene, a lecturer on international
relations at the United States International University in Nairobi.
Adams Oloo, a professor of political science at the University of
Nairobi said: "There's a question mark over the upper echelons of the
civil service, is there some meddling going on? These questions are
"A too-close-to-call result, and one that the loser disputes, will add complexity and uncertainty," says Aly-Khan Satchu Guardian 18th January
"A too-close-to-call result, and one that the loser disputes, will add
complexity and uncertainty," says Aly-Khan Satchu, chief executive of
the east African financial portal Rich Management. However, he says
markets remain positive, with foreign investors driving the stock
market to new highs.
"Equity markets have been in a bull market since May last year, and
remain so," he adds. "Bond markets have been very well behaved. The
central bank stabilised the macro economy and inflation is at a record
low … It is either the calm before the storm or markets are signalling
a positive outcome around the elections."
The Prime Minister's Hat at #Nyayo Stadium #Nairobi Twitpic
“There are three reasons for this war,” said Elisha Bwora, a Pokomo
elder. “Tribe, land and politics.” Washington Post
The hope is that if any election disputes arise between Mr. Kenyatta
and the other front-runner, Raila Odinga, Kenya’s prime minister, who
says he was cheated out of winning last time, Justice Mutunga will
step in — before people on the streets do.
Chief Justice @WMutunga 335 Days ago
Mr Devlin Hainsworth will be leaving the Position of Group Managing
Director EABL effective 31st March 2013 @Diageo_News
An Interview with Devlin Hainsworth Group Managing Director EABL RICH TV
With Thanks to Devlin Hainsworth EABL M.D and CEO for the Interview
Devlin Hainsworth talks about Premiumisation and the World of Spirits
EABL @Diageo_News Twitpic
EABL pleased to Announce Appointment of Mr. Charles Ireland as Group
Managing Director EABL @Diageo_News
EABL share price data and H1 Earnings here +4.5283% 2013 2013
Par Value: 2/-
Closing Price: 277.00
Total Shares Issued: 790774976.00
Market Capitalization: 219,044,668,352
EABL H1 Earnings through December 2012 versus 6 months through 2011
Net Revenue 30.633b versus 27.777b +10.28188%
Cost of Sales [16.234b] versus [14.321b] +13.358%
Gross Profit 14.399b versus 13.456b +7.008%
Selling and Distribution Costs [2.541b] versus [2.311b]
Administration Expenses [3.564b] versus [3.699b]
Other Operating Expenses [0.436b] versus [0.134b]
Profit from Operations 7.858b versus 7.312b +7.467%
Net Finance Costs [2.061b] versus [0.642b] +221%
H1 Profit Before Taxation 5.797b versus 6.670b -13.088455%
H1 Profit After Taxation 3.982b versus 4.877b -18.351445%
H1 Earnings Per Share 4.75 versus 5.55 -14.4144%
Interim Dividend 1.50 per share versus 2.50 Last Time
Cash from Operating Activities 7.424b
Net Revenue Kenya grew 12%
Uganda Breweries +3%
Serengeti Tanzania +16%
Total Beer Portfolio grew 11%
Total Spirits Portfolio grew 9%
Premium Spirits Portfolio +45%
New Beer Brands introduced Balozi and Kibo Gold
Jebel Gin Innovation
The Headline Numbers of H1 PBT -13.088455% and H1 PAT -18.351445%
might catch People's Attention but beneath that Surface lies a
The Half Year on Year Comparison is not flattered by the Financing
Costs around the Purchase of 20% of Kenya Breweries.
Devlin Hainsworth in My Interview spoke to an H2 Acceleration [with
the Proviso that The Election goes well].
EABL is investing now to embed its 91 Year Advantage and I think
Investors will look through the Near Term Noise and like the
Underlying Growth Trajectory.
Top Line Growth of 11% in Beer and 9% in Spirits is more than solid.
Devlin was very excited about Jebel Gin which is being sold at 100 Shillings.
300.00 will be a Floor and then I expect the Price to turn higher.
EABL Net sales By Geography Twitpic
Devlin Hainsworth talks about Premiumisation and the World of Spirits
EABL @Diageo_News Twitpic
Kenya Airways, Fly540 cash in on grounding of Jetlink Business Daily
Kenya Airways and Fly 540 are cashing in on the grounding of Jetlink
Express last year, chalking up market share and higher yields.
The carriers are taking advantage of the reduced competition and
increased demand for flights on some of the routes during this
political season, besides business travel, on the Mombasa, Kisumu,
Eldoret and Juba routes.
Though the airlines did not rush to the market with more flights they
have managed to grow their passenger numbers, which had been affected
by the competition, and recorded higher yields from apparent price
Passengers on the Nairobi-Juba flight are increasingly connecting to
other destinations. KQ has positioned itself to move them through
Nairobi and unveiled a special fare this week of $262 (Sh22,794)
compared to Fly540’s $600 (Sh52,200), according to the companies’
KQ opted to deploy bigger planes on some of the routes by flying the
higher capacity Embraer E190 with 110-seats compared to the Embraer
E170 with 80-seats.
The move was “to capture increased traffic during the quarter,” said
the airline in a statement announcing its third quarter performance to
During this period, KQ saw domestic passenger numbers increase by 10.9
per cent to 228,119, compared to the previous year. The airline saw
its cabin factor, the percentage of passenger seats sold, increase by
6.9 per cent to 81.5 per cent.
Kenya Airways share price data here
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 10.65
Total Shares Issued: 1496470000.00
Market Capitalization: 15,937,405,500
H1 Earnings through September 2012 versus H1 through 2011
Passenger 43.645b versus 48.587b -10,171445%
Cargo and Mail 4.913b versus 4.296b +14.3621973%
Total Revenue 49.832b versus 54.932b -9.284205%
H1 PBT [-6.589b] versus 2.825b
H1 PAT [-4.788b] versus 2.034b
H1 Earnings Per Share [-4.85] versus 4.40
Everything is Baked into the Price.
21-JAN-2013 ::The Pride of Africa @Kenya Airways The Star.
KENYA Airways was established on the 22nd of January 1977 and will be
celebrating its 36th anniversary next week. The airline business is
probably the most volatile and high beta business anywhere in the
world and a 36-year anniversary is something remarkable especially
when you consider that Kenya Airways has been operating deep on the
frontier. During these 36 years, venerable names such as Conti- nental
Airlines, Pan American World Airways, Trans World Airlines, Japan
Airlines, Malaysia Airlines to name a few have filed bankruptcy and in
some cases vanished from the scene. Kenya Airways’ longevity is
therefore an admirable thing and seeing the logo of the flag carrier
in airports all over the world, something that we can all be proud of.
It has been powerful guerilla advertising for Kenya and long before
the concept of ‘geurilla advertising’ was invented.
Turnover has increased 392% since 2003 to Kenya shil- lings 107.897b
in the last full year, Kenya Airways flew 3.6m passengers 12 months
through March 2012 up from 1.6m in 2003. And now after successfully
completing its rights issue last year, it’s bulking up its fleet. The
key risk for the airline was the rights issue. If it could not raise
that capital, it would have been unable to bulk up. Therefore,
investors need to appreciate that with the rights issue, Kenya Airways
got the ante with which it could stay at the table and play the game.
The outsize risk for investors was that it could not complete the
rights issue and that it would have no head room for expansion. The
airline is taking delivery on a new plane practi- cally every month
now. Today the EAC is the 2nd fastest growing region in the world
after ASEAN. Africa is rising. Where once we were disconnected from
the world, we have been connected. And Kenya Airways is connecting all
points in Africa to the world. There is an embedded franchise. There
is an embedded knowledge of how to operate in what remain difficult to
operate places. I know plenty of ‘Johnny come latelys’ are coming
after Kenya Airways’ lunch but look at what happened to JetLink.
Africa remains a very asymmetric market. The corporate intelligence
built up over 35 years is not something that can be replicated
Now lets look at the investment case. Kenya Airways’ share price
closed at 10.95. Since January 2012, it has retreated 44.55%. Kenya
Airways reported a 1st half PAT loss of Sh4.788b. The market cap is
16.386b Kenya shillings which is under $200m. There are many known
unknowns, the price of fuel being one of them. And the volatility
around the business is higher than in most enterprises. The courts
need to ap- preciate that the CEO has to be allowed a free hand
because a judge of the high court has plenty of expertise in the law
but none when it comes to running an airline. And if we want the
airline to be around in another 35 years and to be providing
employment for Kenyans, there are times when the captain has to
rightsize in order to secure the long term future. I have noticed that
we swing like a pendulum from excessive optimism to excessive
pessimism. Everyone keeps asking me; ‘What’s happening in the stock
The answer is we have emerged from a disequilibrium, an extended
period of dislocation.
I have a supreme conviction that the Kenya Airways share price is
dislocated and has been for a quite a while. Absolutely all the bad
news is baked into the price. I think we are going to see a series of
positive surprises this year and that Kenya Airways has the potential
to rally really hard.
The Snows of Kilimanjaro #Africa from a Kenya Airways Plane 176 Days Ago
KenGen banks on bond market to raise Sh30bn Nation
The Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) has announced plans
to raise Sh30 billion through a 20-year bond.
The money, according to a statement from KenGen will be used to
finance geothermal power production.
“We shall use this capital to build power plants and use the revenue
from the sale of power to pay those who have invested in us,” said
outgoing KenGen managing director Eddy Njoroge.
This initiative will be the second time in under five years that the
majority State-owned electricity generator will be turning to the bond
market for capital.
In 2010, KenGen issued a 10-year public infrastructure bond where it
raised Sh25 billion.
The company’s total installed capacity is 1,232 megawatts currently.
It plans to raise this to 1,750 megawatts by 2015 and increase the
same to 3,000 megawatts by 2018 with bias to geothermal production.
In the next five years, Mr Njoroge said that the company will need
about USD5 billion (Sh437.4 trillion) to generate electricity in order
to meet rapidly growing demand.
KenGen intends to finance repayments of the planned bond through
revenue generated from the sale of geothermal power.
KenGen share price data here +32.386% 2013
Par Value: 2.50/-
Closing Price: 11.65
Total Shares Issued: 2198361344.00
Market Capitalization: 25,610,909,658
Geothermal OlKaria IV Kenya Twitpic
The President launches OlKaria IV The Geothermal Gig #Kengen #Kenya Twitpic
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg Year To Date +11.1005% 2013
The All Share closed at 109.50 a Multi Year High on the 13th February
then embarked on a 5 Session losing Streak before turning higher
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +9.01% 2013
4,505.59 2.84 0.06%
The NSE20 closed at a 27 Month High of 4648.09 on the 13th of February
and we are 143 points below that Level.
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
The Nairobi All Share edged 0.12 points lower to close at 105.27.
The Nairobi All Share closed at a Multi Year High on the 13th of
February, then posted a 5 session losing Streak, before turning higher
yesterday but could not push on today.
The Nairobi All Share remains +10.974% in 2013.
The Nairobi NSE20 fell 27.70 points to close at 4477.89.
Equity Turnover was was 368.864m versus 876.349m
The Big Headline News was the Resignation of the EABL MD Devlin Hainsworth.
Athi River Mining set a Fresh All Time High and is +40.134% since the
Start of the Year.
Total Kenya rallied 8.214% and was trading at +10% the Daily limit for
most of the Session.
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
Safaricom closed unchanged at 5.70 and traded 5.901m shares worth
33.627m. Safaricom is +12.871% in 2013 and sits 1.724% below a 30
month Closing High of 5.80 reached on the 9th of January this Year.
Safaricom had Buy Side Demand for 426% more shares than were traded
during the Session at the Closing Bell signalling its underwritten at
ScanGroup firmed 1.408% to close at 72.00 and traded 109,000 shares
ahead of its Earnings Release next week.
Access Kenya eased 2.38% to close at 6.15 and traded 136,200 shares.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Kenya Commercial Bank was the 2nd most actively traded share at the
Securities Exchange after EABL. Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 0.69% to
close at 36.50 and traded a 36.25-36.75 range and 1.238m shares worth
45.329m. KCB is +22.689% this Year and 5.194% below an All Time Record
High reached this month. Kenya Commercial Bank releases FY Earnings
next week. There was plenty of inaccurate reporting in the Main
Dailies today with Headlines like 'KCB set for a Fresh round of Lay
Offs.' This is incorrect. The CEO is seeking to Re Align 'The
Executive Committee Structure.'
CFC Stanbic Holdings traded 315,800 shares worth 14.447m and closed
unchanged at 45.50. CFC StanBic is +8.333% in 2013.
Barclays Bank eased 0.31% to close at 16.20 and traded 883,700 shares
Diamond Trust closed unchanged at a Record High of 140.00 and traded
Equity Bank eased 0.9259% to close at 26.75 and traded 146,400 shares.
National Bank got knocked back 6.036% to close at 17.90 and traded
Housing Finance retreated 2.73% to close at 17.80 and traded 144,800 shares.
Pan Africa Insurance pushed on a further 2.127% to close at 48.00 and
traded 30,100 shares. Pan Africa released Strong FY Earnings this
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
The Big Headline News today was received Pre Market Opening and was
the News that Devlin Hainsworth the Managing Director of EABL was set
to resign his Position at the End of March. During Devlin's Tenure of
7 months, He has presided over a +32.027% Total Return which is an
outstanding Return for Shareholders anywhere in the World. EABL has
been playing an Offensive Game, expanding its Product Suite and its
Geographical Reach. EABL weathered the news and firmed 1.08% to close
at 280.00 and traded a 278.00-285.00 range and 326,400 shares worth
91.447m. EABL was trading at 285.00 +2.89% session highs at the
Closing Bell. EABL had closed at a Record High of 315.00 on the 13th
February, then retreated 13.333% 13th February through 20th February
and had become oversold to the Downside. EABL has now rebounded
2.5641% over the last 2 Sessions and has further to rebound.
KenGen slumped 6.01% to close at 10.95 and traded 128,200 shares.
There was Sell Side Supply on the board for 469% more shares than were
traded during the Session. The Business Daily carried a Story today
where the MD Eddie Njoroge was speaking about a 30b Shilling
Geothermal Backed 20 Year Bond. Equity Holders evidently took fright
at that but I think this was an Over Reaction. KenGen is +24.431% in
Kenya Power eased 1.12% to close at 17.55 and was trading at 17.00
-4.23% session lows at the Finish Line.KPLC
Athi River Mining firmed 0.8064% to close at a Fresh Record Closing
High of 62.50. ARM is +40.134% in 2013. ARM traded 214,700 shares.
Bamburi cement traded 136,400 shares worth 29.189m and all at 214.00
Portland Cement ticked 3.1275% lower to close at 46.50 on light
trading of 5,000 shares.
Total Kenya rallied 8.214% to close at 15.15 and was trading at its
Daily Limit 15.40 +10.00% for most of the Session.
KenolKobil retreated 1.937% to close at 12.65 and traded 114,300 shares.
BAT edged 0.188% lower to close at 529.00 and traded 27,200 shares