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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 25th of February 2013

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Kenya Inc. Manifestoes, Dreams and Real Life The Star

Of Course, I would like to drive a very Fast Car like a Maserati, have
my own Private Plane on Stand By, a bevy of Dolly Birds [no Disrespect
intended I am a fanatical Feminist] to cater to my every whim, The
Finest Champagne at my Elbow and a Bank Account whose complexity was
around computing the number of zeros after the 1. I have met several
Folks, who exist in that Ultra Net Worth Stratosphere, one of whom
parked his $70m Jet at Wilson Airport until I said, By The Time We
return from Lamu, Your Plane might be in Mogadishu! I would like to
exist at 35,000 Feet and whilst we are compiling My Wish List, I would
like to be returned to my Twenties with the Knowledge I have now so I
could savour and get intoxicated on Life because Life is so fleeting
and such a Precious Gift.

The 'MTV' Manifestoes were snippets of the Good Life and would never
bear the Interrogation of an Accountant. If You were to take these
Manifestoes and look to raise some Capital, Investors would laugh and
fall off their Chairs. Marx characterised Religion as the Opiate of
the Masses, well he had not sighted our Manifestoes. Who Knows, Maybe
Everyone realises its like some elaborate Striptease and nothing more
and that I am just being naive.

The First Thing that we might insist on is that Every Wish [Every Line
Item] is costed by an Independent Party so that we can bring some
reality to bear on this Good Life that is being peddled by all and
Sundry. The Other Point is that We are pulling the Cart before the
Horse. We need a Road Map that accelerates our GDP to double Digits
and keeps it there for a sustainable Period. Since 2007, when we
reached 7.1%, we have grown above 5% for only one Year. The Starting
Point of just about everything is a much faster GDP Run Rate.
Businesses will expand on a Rising GDP Tide, The Tax Take will swell
and Job Opportunities will be created.

And we need to resize and reconfigure the Size of our Government. We
talk the Talk big time but We need to walk the Talk. The Recurrent
Expenditure, the Cost of running Kenya Inc. is sky high. Its way too
expensive. We are the Country that has embraced Mobile Money, The New
Generation is surfing the c21st on their Mobile Phones. We emitted
300,000 Tweets during the ground breaking Presidential Debate. We need
to leapfrog the Government, change its shape, plunge it into the c21st
and slash and I mean slash Cost. I estimate that if we could cut the
cost of Government in half without blinking. Sadly, not One Manifesto
even proposed a Road Map to reduce the Government Foot Print.

One of the most progressive Policies of the First Iteration of the
Kibaki Administration was the Government Divestment Program and with
it the Shareholder Revolution. I saw a Report that showed that GOK had
a stake in 1,000 Businesses. 1,000. Just get your head around that.
These Businesses span just about everything. Do these Investments make
a positive Return? Do Pigs fly? The Incoming Administration should
list all these Businesses and start selling them off in their First
Year. The New Administration needs to sharpen its Focus. Get out of a
1,000 and train its Gaze on 10 or 20. If its going to be LAPPSET and
Konza and flagship Projects like that so be it but everything starts
with tidying up the Balance Sheet.

And Then Re Ignite the Shareholder Revolution. The Festering Sore in
Kenya is a Lack of a sense of Ownership among too many of our
Citizens. We need to create 40m Owner Citizens. The Mistake we made
was thinking it was the Government's Job to squeeze the Citizens on
price. It was not. In fact, its the Government's Task to ensure
Everyone has a Profit. That Way the Pipeline keeps following. Sell at
steep Discounts, re create the Feel Good Factor and lets hit the
Ground Running.

We sit on the Cusp of a Break Out Moment. We cannot afford to fail.

@JohnGithongo and @MaggieIreri at Mindspeak RICH TV

Macro Thoughts

Andy Warhol @ Christies

QE The Warholian Moment No more QE Infinity?

Home Thoughts

"Pool" © MARIO TESTINO via Daily Beast

"Balls," © MARIO TESTINO via Daily Beast

read more

Why You Want to Escape With Denzel Washington Bloomberg

In December, Denzel Washington, who is nominated this year for his
performance as an alcoholic pilot in “Flight,” came in first when the
annual Harris poll asked Americans to name their favorite movie star.
It was his fourth time topping the poll.

A movie star isn’t just an actor. He or she is what the author
Margaret Farrand Thorp, writing during the golden age of the studio
system, called an “escape personality” -- a stand- in for the

Such consistency is why a movie star can “open a movie,” drawing large
audiences the first weekend regardless of the film’s specifics. Ticket
buyers don’t just want to see a good performance. They want to spend
time with the star.

Audiences know what Washington represents, writes the film scholar
Anne Helen Petersen in a blog post: “a blend of charisma and honor,
save when he ‘goes bad’ and plays the amoral, the stubborn, the
angry.” The “picture personality” his roles establish, she says, “is
that of an eloquent, persuasively charismatic man capable of
manipulating and transcending the environment in which he finds
himself.” He represents a masculine ideal: the smartest, most
resourceful character on the screen, and the most powerful physical
presence. Whatever the role, his character always commands respect.

In the Harris poll, Corso says, “Denzel Washington was No. 1 for
whites, for African-Americans and for Hispanics.” Audiences identify
with him, regardless of race.

He is not a man who tolerates disrespect. And because he is almost
always the most capable, and often the most admirable, guy in the
room, audiences don’t just respect him. They want to be him.

Each apartment block has a vast enclosed courtyard. When the project,
less than half built, opened, in 2007, Francisco Hernando, threw a
courtyard party for a few thousand guests. Caterers served fake caviar
on Bimbo bread Photo Booth

read more

Eleven states sign United Nations deal for peace in Congo Guardian
Law & Politics

Eleven African countries signed a UN-drafted peace deal on Sunday to
stabilise the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where rebels allegedly
backed by neighbouring countries last year threatened to oust the
government. Opening the agreement-signing meeting at the African Union
headquarters in Addis Ababa, UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon said the
peace, security and co-operation framework would bring stability to
the region.

"The signing ceremony is significant even in itself. But it is only
the beginning of a comprehensive approach that will require sustained
engagement. The framework before you outlines commitments and
oversight mechanisms which aim at addressing key national and regional
issues," Ban said in his speech.

Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Angola, Uganda,
South Sudan, South Africa, Tanzania and Congo-Brazzaville signed the

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told Americans on Friday "I am back
and so is Japan" Reuters

"No nation should make any miscalculation about firmness of our
resolve. No one should ever doubt the robustness of the Japan-U.S.
alliance," he told the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"At the same time, I have absolutely no intention to climb up the
escalation ladder," Abe said in a speech in English.

"Japan is not, and will never be, a tier-two country," Abe said in his
speech. "So today ... I make a pledge. I will bring back a strong
Japan, strong enough to do even more good for the betterment of the

Abe said Obama welcomed his economic policy, while Deputy Chief
Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato said the two leaders did not discuss
currencies, in a sign that the U.S. does not oppose "Abenomics"
despite concern that Japan is weakening its currency to export its way
out of recession.

@AbeShinzo 's Plane lands in Washington CS Monitor

@AbeShinzo leaves his Plane Washington

PM @AbeShinzo is @BarackObama 's Pivot to Asia's Point Man West Wing

Iran Says It Captured 'Foreign Enemy Drone' During Military Exercise
Huffington Post

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard said Saturday that
it had captured a foreign unmanned aircraft during a military exercise
in southern Iran.

Gen. Hamid Sarkheili, a spokesman for the military exercise, said the
Guard's electronic warfare unit spotted signals indicating that
foreign drones were trying to enter Iranian airspace. Sarkheili said
Guard experts took control of one drone's navigation system and
brought it down near the city of Sirjan where the military drills
began on Saturday.

"While probing signals in the area, we spotted foreign and enemy
drones which attempted to enter the area of the war game," the
official IRNA news agency quoted the general as saying. "We were able
to get one enemy drone to land."

Sarkheili did not say whether the drone was American.

In Washington, a CIA spokeswoman declined to comment on the report.

Iran has claimed to have captured several U.S. drones, including an
advanced RQ-170 Sentinel CIA spy drone in December 2011 and at least
three ScanEagle aircraft.

State TV said the Guard's military exercise, code-named Great
Prophet-8, involved ground forces of the Guard, Iran's most powerful
military force. State TV showed tanks and artillery attacking
hypothetical enemy positions. He said various systems, including
unmanned planes that operate like suicide bombers, were tested.

"Reconnaissance as well as suicide drones, which are capable of
attacking the hypothetical enemies, were deployed and their
operational capabilities were studied," the semi-official Fars news
agency quoted him as saying.

“In Lebanon, Hezbollah is both everywhere and nowhere,” the
photographer Moises Saman Photo Booth

A still from a film depicting Hezbollah fighters during an operation
against Israeli soldiers in the 2006 war, projected in the Mleeta
Museum theatre.

Chavez warns that Africa and South America Must Unite or face Western

Referring to Western interventions in Libya and Mali, among others,
Chavez wrote, “It’s not by luck or chance…[that] since the Summit in
Margarita (Venezuela) the African continent has been the victim of
multiple interventions and attacks by Western powers”.

The Venezuelan president argued that one of the objectives of these
interventions had been to put a brake on the consolidation of African
unity, in turn slowing cooperation between Africa and South America.

As such, Chavez repeated Venezuela’s “total rejection of all
interventionist activity by NATO” in Africa and around the world.

read more

Britain lost its top credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service Bloomberg
International Trade

The rating on the U.K. was lowered one level to Aa1 from Aaa and the
outlook on the nation’s debt changed to stable from negative, Moody’s
said in a statement yesterday. With the U.K.’s high and rising debt
burden, deterioration in the government’s balance sheet is unlikely to
be reversed before 2016, Moody’s said in the statement.

“This has been speculated as inevitable and is most likely largely in
the market,” said Charles Diebel, head of market strategy at Lloyds
Banking Group Plc in London. “Historically, losing your AAA is
actually a bond bullish event.”

The pound fell after the downgrade in the last half-hour of trading in
New York, dropping 0.6 percent to $1.5163. Sterling has depreciated
5.6 percent this year, the second-worst performer after the yen among
10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes.

“This is an era where developed countries are being downgraded on a
regular basis.”

Britain’s debt as a percentage of gross domestic product will climb to
98 percent next year from 90 percent last year and 95.4 percent in
2013, the European Commission said in its winter forecast yesterday.


The Pound will go a lot lower. The Bond Market will be more resilient.

read more

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3188
Dollar Index 81.46 reached 81.642 the highest since Sept. 5.
Japan Yen 94.08 touched 94.77 the weakest since May 2010.
Swiss Franc 0.9312
Pound 1.5126  touched 1.5073, the least since July 2010.
Aussie 1.0278
India Rupee 54.105
South Korea Won 1086.20
Brazil Real 1.9734
Egypt Pound 6.7242
South Africa Rand 8.8973

The yen has dropped 6.7 percent this year, the biggest loser among 10
developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted
Indexes. The pound has seen the second- biggest decline, falling 5.7

The preliminary reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 50.4 in
February, according to a statement from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit
Economics today. That compares with the 52.3 final reading for January
and the 52.2 median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. A
number above 50 indicates expansion.

Sterling 6 Month Chart INO 1.5125 Last

Euro versus the Dollar 6 Month Chart 1.3188 Last

LTRO II repayment disappoints after banks repay just EUR61.1b vs
expectations for more than EUR100b.

Italy’s two-year yield climbed nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage
point, last week to 1.67 percent. The 6 percent note due in November
2014 dropped 0.235, or 2.35 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,316) face amount,
to 107.29. The yield climbed to 1.77 percent on Feb. 5, the highest
level since Jan. 3.

Dollar Yen 6 Month Chart INO 94.046 Last

Japan’s central bank has “really substantial room” for further
loosening and additional measures could be justified this year, Kuroda
said in a Feb. 11 interview.

Dollar Index 6 Month Chart INO 81.607 Last

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver his semiannual
testimony on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow,
and a day later will speak before the House Financial Services
Committee. Bernanke said on Feb. 15 that the economy is “far from the
fully healthy and vibrant conditions that we would like to see.”

read more

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 93.08 Last

WTI for April delivery was at $93.03 a barrel, down 10 cents, in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:29 p.m.
Singapore time. The contract rose to $93.13 on Feb. 22, the highest
since Feb. 20. The volume of all futures traded was 43 percent above
the 100-day average. Prices dropped 2.9 percent last week, the most
since December.

Gold 6 Month Chart INO 1582.76 Last

Money managers and other large speculators reduced their net-long
position in gold futures and options by 40 percent in the week ended
Feb. 19 to 42,318, the biggest drop since July 31, 2007, U.S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Global holdings of
exchange-traded products backed by gold tumbled 1.6 percent last week,
the most since August 2011, after minutes of a Fed policy meeting
showed several officials said the central bank should be ready to vary
the pace of their monthly bond purchases.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more

U.S. military personnel arrive in Niger Reuters

The Pentagon has deployed about 100 troops to the West African nation
of Niger to conduct unmanned reconnaissance flights over Mali and
share intelligence with French forces fighting al Qaeda-affiliated
militants, President Barack Obama told Congress on Friday.

Obama, in a letter to congressional leaders, said the last 40 of the
approximately 100 military personnel had arrived in Niger on Wednesday
and were "deployed with weapons for the purpose of providing their own
force protection and security."

"This deployment will provide support for intelligence collection and
will also facilitate intelligence sharing with French forces
conducting operations in Mali, and with other partners in the region,"
the president said.

The United States and Niger signed a Status of Forces Agreement last
month that governs the presence of American troops in the country,
paving the way for sending unarmed drones and military personnel.

A Pentagon official said U.S. Africa Command, which handles military
ties with Africa, had sent the unmanned planes to Niger "to support a
range of regional security missions and engagements with partner

"This effort is designed to promote regional stability in support of
U.S. diplomacy and national security and to strengthen relationships
with regional leaders committed to security and prosperity," the
official said on condition of anonymity.

The United States already has drones and surveillance aircraft
stationed at several points around Africa. Its only permanent military
base is in the small country of Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, more
than 3,000 miles from Mali.

Niger gave permission for U.S. surveillance drones to be stationed on
its territory to improve intelligence on al Qaeda-linked Islamist
fighters in northern Mali and the wider Sahara, a senior Niger
government source said in January.


The US continues to grow its Hard Power Footprint in Africa.

read more

U.S. military personnel arrive in Niger GlobalPost

Nigeria, Brazil Sign Agreement to Boost Trade, Investment Bloomberg

Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4) expects to expand oil production in
Nigeria as the Rio de Janeiro-based company looks to strengthen its
presence in Africa’s top oil producer.

“Petrobras has been producing oil in Nigeria for 14 years, and expects
to increase production,” Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff said today
during a speech in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital. “Petrobras expects to
establish an ever-stronger presence here in Nigeria.”

Trade between Brazil, South America’s biggest economy, and Nigeria,
Africa’s most populous country, is $9 billion a year. Nigerian
President Goodluck Jonathan and Rousseff signed an agreement to boost
cooperation on energy, aviation, agriculture, electricity,
infrastructure development and defense.


Brazil is making a Strong Showing on the African Continent.

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg Year To Date +20.71%

Ghana Composite Index Bloomberg Year To Date +20.67%

South Africa All Share Bloomberg Year To Date +1.04%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 8.89280 Last

Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi calls for parliamentary elections
starting in April Bloomberg

The president issued a decree late yesterday to hold a four-stage
election starting April 27 and ending in late June, with the new
assembly to meet on July 6.

“Holding the elections amid the persisting social tension and
fragility of state institutions and before reaching a national
consensus is irresponsible and will inflame the situation,” ElBaradei,
a Nobel laureate who led the International Atomic Energy Agency, said
on Twitter today.

Egypt is in “crisis” and can’t recover without a much-delayed $4.8
billion International Monetary Fund loan accord, Planning and
Investment Minister Ashraf El-Arabi said yesterday.

The Salafi Nour Party, which has clashed with Mursi recently after he
dismissed one of its members as an adviser, also expressed support.
Elections “can be a way out of the current political crisis” and
participation is a “national duty,” spokesman Nader Bakkar said by
phone today. Nour finished second last time behind the Brotherhood’s

“What election is Mursi talking about?” said Ahmed Ibrahim, one of
thousands of anti-Mursi protesters said by phone from Port Said today
“We don’t want elections before people’s demands are met. The
president has lost his legitimacy.”

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.7224 Last

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg Year To Date +2.15%

East Africa exploration and appraisal update via @TullowOilPLC

Tullow Oil plc (“Tullow”) announces the successful completion of the
flow tests at Twiga South-1 with a constrained combined rate of 2,812
bopd from three reservoir zones. Unconstrained, the combined rate has
the potential to flow at around 5,200 bopd. In Uganda, the Ondyek-1
exploration well did not encounter hydrocarbons.

Twiga South-1 flow test – Kenya

The testing program at the Twiga South-1 oil discovery has now been
successfully completed with a cumulative flow rate of 2,812 bopd,
constrained by surface equipment. Tullow previously stated that Drill
Stem Tests (“DST”) 3 and 4A flowed at a cumulative rate of 2,351 bopd
and can now announce that the fifth and final DST flowed at a rate of
461 bopd. With optimised equipment these flow rates would increase to
a cumulative rate of around 5,200 bopd. 37 degree API waxy sweet crude
was flowed from all three zones in the Auwerwer formation with good
quality reservoir sands encountered and the well has been suspended as
a potential future production well. As with DST 4A, a Progressive
Cavity Pump (PCP) was used to artificially lift at DST 5, whilst DST 3
flowed naturally. Two additional zones were tested in the tight
reservoir rock at the base of the well and, as anticipated, both
produced at sub-commercial rates but confirmed the presence of movable

These results provide encouragement for the forthcoming testing
program at Ngamia-1A, Block 10BB, where four zones are planned to be
tested using the Weatherford 804 rig. Testing activities are expected
to commence in March and complete by the end of May.

Tullow has a 50% operated interest in the Twiga South-1 well, Block
13T, with Africa Oil holding the remaining 50% interest.


Much better than predicted Results.

read more

Joining hands for peace Nation
Kenyan Economy

A meeting that had been convened at Uhuru Park by charismatic preacher
David Owuor to pray for peaceful elections also saw two of the
country’s biggest political rivals, Cord flag bearer Raila Odinga and
Jubilee running mate William Ruto reconcile.

But on Sunday, the PM said the two met last year and agreed to bury
the hatchet, revelations that were confirmed by Mr Ruto.

“I can confirm what the PM has said. We have indeed forgiven each
other,” said Mr Ruto amid applause from the thousands of people who
had attended the prayer meeting. “We have also forgiven all those who
have wronged us and equally ask for forgiveness to all we have

Mr Odinga also said he had repented all the sins he may have committed
and said his wish was to see the March 4 election held in a peaceful

“This is a great day for Kenya. We left Egypt more than 50 years ago
and have been wandering in the desert since. We have now reached the
shores of Canaan,” he said.

Mr Kenyatta said the violence that almost took the country to the
brink in 2007/08 was a thing of the past.

“I, Uhuru Kenyatta, swear that we shall maintain peace in our
campaigns. We shall also tell our supporters across the country to do
so since Kenya is bigger than any of us,” he said.

“I am feeling humbled standing before all Kenyans and assuring them
that we shall play our part in ensuring that these elections are held
in a peaceful atmosphere. To all my supporters, please do the same,”
said Ms Karua.

Message from East Africa: Kenyans, you have an exciting challenge
ahead Dr. @RSezibera

These are exciting times for Kenya. On March 4, the people of Kenya go
to the polls to elect their leaders in a new political dispensation.

Election times are always heady times... sometimes too heady for
comfort. These are times when the possibility of change fires the
imagination, steels the will, and brings up the possibility of a real
leap forward in national development.

These are also times when the need to ensure continuity and
consolidate gains achieved under a previous administration becomes
imperative. Election time is a time for new beginnings but it is not a
time for creating a national tabula rasa.

The gains in the democratic space, an increasingly vibrant private
sector, a resurgent and resilient economy, advances in education,
health, infrastructure, security and gender equality, are the real
anchors of true political pluralism. They must be safeguarded.

So yes, the East African Community will deploy a 40-member observer
mission to Kenya, led by a distinguished son of East Africa, and
former Speaker of the East African Legislative Assembly.

It will be co-ordinated by Hon Lydia Wanyoto, former member of the
East African Legislative Assembly, and will have representatives from
EALA, national electoral commissions, and human rights bodies.

I trust that the electoral period will serve to strengthen the
stability of Kenya and the East African region. I wish the people of
Kenya all the best as they exercise their democratic rights.

Dr Richard Sezibera is the Secretary General of the East African Community.

This is #Africa 's Century Amb Sec Gen @RSezibera  Twitpic

Dr @RSezibera was an outstanding Guest at #Mindspeak RICH TV

read more

Running on Amnesia By MICHELA WRONG
Kenyan Economy

NAIROBI — I was negotiating one of Nairobi’s terrifying traffic
circles — a maneuver that requires jumping over a lattice of open
sewers while playing chicken with a line of trucks snorting their way
toward Uganda and Congo — when I was confronted with a vision to chill
the heart and drop the jaw. Twenty young Kenyan volunteers in T-shirts
and caps printed with the candidate’s face were jiving and chanting on
the back of a campaign truck as it trundled toward the Sarit Center
shopping mall in Westlands: “Vote for Brother Paul!”

It was my first day back in the city that was once my home, and I’d
just caught a glimpse of what must surely be the overriding
characteristic of this East African country’s forthcoming general
elections: shamelessness.

For Brother Paul, as he is known since he found God, was once plain
Kamlesh Pattni, the smirking, mustachioed brains behind Goldenberg,
the biggest financial scandal in Kenyan history. The scam, in which
top officials looted public coffers by claiming compensation for
phantom gold exports, sent the economy into a nose dive that cost
Kenya at least 10 percent of G.D.P. in the 1990s. Yet Pattni clearly
sees no reason why that awkward fact should bar him from office.

Maybe he’s not so crazy. Because forgetting past financial scandals is
only one form of amnesia a dazed public is being asked to demonstrate
come March 4. The presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, and
his running mate William Ruto, a Kalenjin, are asking millions to
effectively lobotomize themselves as they enter the voting booths,
blanking out everything they saw five years ago.

The Kikuyu are the largest and most economically successful tribe; the
Kalenjin, a looser ethnic grouping, come second in size. Kenya’s last
three presidents have all been either Kikuyu or Kalenjin.

After the 2007 election Kikuyu and Kalenjin militias were given
machetes, spears and cash payments, trucked to where they could do
most damage and let loose on rival ethnic communities. Houses and
churches were burned; businesses were looted. Refugees went on
exoduses, only to find their way often cut off by flaming roadblocks.
Many analysts believe that the official estimate of more than 1,000
deaths is a laughable underestimation.

Now, thanks to an alliance between Kenyatta and Ruto, who both face
trial before the International Criminal Court for allegedly organizing
the violence, attackers and victims are being asked to become buddies.
Anything to keep Prime Minister Raila Odinga, a Luo who almost
certainly should have won the 2007 election, from becoming president.
Kenya has a tradition of strained tribal coalitions, but few have been
more grotesque, or demanded more torturous mental acrobatics of
scarred constituencies, than this.

Odinga, who has pulled together his own alliance, is also hoping for
some serious short-term memory loss from his supporters. They will
need to forget that he was lucky — enemies say miraculously so — to
escape an I.C.C. indictment for what Luo lieutenants perpetrated in
Kenya’s warring slums in 2007 and 2008. They will also need to skim
over the corruption scandals that have led back to the prime
minister’s office and the deep nepotism that surfaced during party
primaries in Odinga’s region.

Will the candidates succeed in convincing the electorate to swallow
such repugnant medicine? God knows they have stinted neither funds nor
energy in their attempts to make the various unlikely deals sound
pragmatic, even sensible. Across Kenya, walls, fences and kiosks are
plastered with campaign posters. Toyota pickups covered in stickers
perform semi-permanent loops through slums, horns blaring.

There is one interest group, at least, that has no problem behaving as
though the past were another country: the international business

Since the most violent elections in Kenyan history, consultants
advising companies keen to invest in Africa in general and Kenya in
particular have been telephoning me, asking for my views on political
risk. The last call came two days before I flew in. “This isn’t a
great time for predictions,” I said. “Literally anything could happen.
It’s a very tight race.” The consultant was apologetic. “I don’t think
our clients realized there was an election in Kenya this month.”

That level of ignorance is unusual, but my answer, in any case, is
always the same. Yes, Kenya is East Africa’s most vibrant economy, a
strategic gateway to the mineral resources of the Great Lakes region
and — potentially — the oil riches of South Sudan. It has an
aspirational middle class, a ballooning pool of potential workers and
a relentless entrepreneurial spirit.

But a generation of cynical, short-termist politicians has turned
ethnicity into a poisonous national obsession, Nairobi’s slums are the
most squalid in Africa, and the vision required to defuse the
frustrations of the young population trapped in them is noticeable by
its absence.

In less than two weeks, Kenyans will line up by the millions to pick
their leaders for the first time since a disastrous vote in 2007,
which set off clashes that killed more than 1,000 people.

Despite such warnings, overseas funding pours in. Taking the long
view, private investors are transforming Nairobi’s skyscape, while
holes in the city’s moth-eaten colonial infrastructure yawn ever
wider. Above the shattered pavements, giant potholes and broken
streetlights, gleaming 20-floor towers now rear.

I walk past them and wonder if those who commissioned their wraparound
glass fronts, so vulnerable to looters’ rocks, were more far-sighted
than a headline-obsessed writer. Or perhaps, it suddenly occurs to me,
it’s just shatterproof glass.


This Election remains a High Beta Moment. We get it right and the
Economy will have lift Off. We get it wrong and we will be back at the
Beginning in a cruel Redux of GroundHog Day.

Kenya remains the Anchor State of the EAC and the Wider Region.
Mombasa and the Route to the Interior is the Jugular Vein of this Part
of Africa. The West would be uniquely short sighted and cavalier to
drop Kenya or allow it to run into the Hands of China. Therefore, The
Tsunami of Messaging needs to be cognisant of Kenya's Geopolitical
Importance and to manage a potentially very fluid Situation with
Intelligence and with a clear sense of the embedded Investments in
mind. The United Kingdom, for example, holds 50% of the Market
Capitalisation of the Nairobi Securities Exchange. which of itself is
$7.5b equivalent.

Therefore, If we are advocating Democracy, The West needs to accept
the Result warts and All. The Drip Drip of 'Choices have Consequences'
is seriously counterproductive.

''Yes, Kenya is East Africa’s most vibrant economy, a strategic
gateway to the mineral resources of the Great Lakes region and —
potentially — the oil riches of South Sudan.''

The Oil Riches of South Sudan I believe will pale into Into
Insignificance compared to the Oil and Gas Volumes that will be
discovered in Kenya.

 We live in an imperfect World. There are challenges everywhere we
turn. The continued Rising Tiding of Interest is a Good Thing.

Aly-Khan Satchu

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Kenya Ahead of the Elections
Kenyan Economy

Dr Gabrielle Lynch
Associate Professor of Comparative Politics, Warwick University
Dr Nic Cheeseman
Lecturer in African Politics, University of Oxford
Dr Justin Willis
Professor, Department of History, Durham University
Chair: Jason Mosley
Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

The situation in Kenya is currently unpredictable. The general
election could be relatively free and fair, and violence is not

People in Central Province represent 15.3 per cent of registered
voters despite comprising just 11.4 per cent of the population.

Although Kenyans are praying for the best, some seem to be preparing
for the worst. This is reflected in reports of an increase in gun
ownership in parts of the Rift Valley and of the mass purchase of
machetes in Kibera. Gangs also remain a reality in many areas, and
there are reports of village defence units being formed in some

Kenyans will be casting six ballots, including for county
representatives, governors and senators. This creates a number of
problems. For example, it will takes twice as long for someone to
vote, and twice as long for the votes to be counted. How the electoral
commission will be able to manage the process has not necessarily been
thought through.

Support for the IEBC is between 80 and 90 per cent, depending on which
party you support. That is incredibly high, and so there are high
levels of public confidence right now.

One thing to keep in mind here is that 70 million ballot papers are
being printed six times for each different race. That is an incredibly
complex process as from the presidential down to the local polls, each
of the candidates are different.

The MRC was and is an incoherent organization.

The opinion polls have informed both the main coalitions that the
Coast is one of two areas in the country where there are substantial
numbers of undecided voters. Voters in the Coast may be crucial in
deciding whether there is a first round victory, and even more so in
deciding the second round poll.

Because of the nature of popular disaffection in the Coast, and in
particular because of the longstanding tensions over land, it is
regrettably likely that there will be mobilization along ethnic lines
in this vote. People will attempt to instrumentalize the rumours and
tensions over land-grabbing and possession of land affecting many
parts of the Coast, especially around Mombasa.

Regarding the second round; the dates have just been released by the
IEBC and it looks as though if we do not see a petition to appeal
during the first found, then it leads to an election run-off that will
be around the same dates as the ICC process is due to reconvene.

The best functioning part of the IEBC is its Facebook site; if you
want any information on the IEBC do not go to the website, go to the
Facebook site.

The region as a whole is dependent on Kenya; logistically, financially
and politically in a way that is true of no other regional country.
This is part of the reason why this will be a high stakes election; it
would harm Kenya and the region’s economy as a whole if things go

A lot will depend on how the election goes; if it is seen to be
credible, it will be very difficult for international donors to move
against those democratically elected leaders if they are participating
fully in the case. If the elections are not credible, that creates
another reason to be cynical and not want to engage with those

Among the Kikuyu community, many people think that even if Uhuru was
involved in organizing and funding violence, that there was a war and
that the Kikuyu were being targeted, that actually Uhuru was doing a
difficult thing and helped bring the violence to an end.

None of the candidate’s garners 50%+1 for clear win - 4 battlegrounds,
4 contested counties @IpsosSynovateKe

The opinion poll Act (2012) requires that results should not be first
published within 5 days to an election.

The race to the State House is a close call with the two leading
candidate’s neck-to-neck only 10 days before the election. The latest
Ipsos Synovate opinion poll shows that the support level for Uhuru
Kenyatta stands at 44.8% whilst that of Raila Odinga is at 44.4% - an
evident statistical tie in the support ratings. Musalia Mudavadi has
5.20% support which is mainly from Western Kenya. Notably, None of the
aspirants or the political parties garners more than the 50%+1 of
votes required to win in the round one election and this points to a
likely run-off scenario, unless this situation changes significantly
over the remaining pre-election period.

Implications of Raila Attack On Karangi, Gichangi and Kimemia BY JOE

As for spymaster Gichangi, the PM even named a pizza restaurant owned
by a son of late billionaire businessman and Central Kenya powerbroker
Njenga Karume as the venue of Jubilee-compliant political scheming for
the presidential poll.This was unprecedented. No politician has ever
publicly told the head of the secret police in Kenya that he is
keeping tabs on him. In the Kanu one-party era, such a scenario was
inconceivable.No politician has wagged a finger at an incumbent head
of the military in this country either, or made an allegation as grave
as Raila's imputations on General Karangi and the uses he allegedly
occasionally puts DoD headquarters to.

Raila's attack on these three was also remarkable for its timing -
barely three weeks before the elections and the change of guard at
State House. It was a multi-layered assault delivered in one fell
swoop. On the surface, it was just a continuation, perhaps the
culmination, of the bickering at the top of the cantankerous grand
coalition regime. Just beneath the surface, it put the three top
officers on notice: I win this thing and you stand fired.

On yet another frequency, Raila was deploring his co-principal in the
outgoing grand coalition government, President Kibaki's
long-entrenched habit of giving the choicest jobs in the state edifice
to Central Kenyans. Implicit in the PM's spectacular allegations was
the proposition that, once in power, he would not only promptly retire
these three, but he would distribute their big jobs across three
different ethnic regions. This was the dog-whistle politicking part of
it - and it was heard far and wide.

The official silence from DoD, NSIS headquarters and Harambee House
that greeted the PM's allegations was resonant. Government Spokesman
Muthui Kariuki issued an Op Ed commentary in the print media
attempting to rubbish the PM's accusations but Cord did not even so
much as look in his direction by way of acknowledging that it had
registered his counter-argument.

Inside Jubilee, Uhuru and running mate William Ruto promptly denied
the PM's claims, but all damage the PM had intended was well and truly

It may even well be the case that none of the three has actually
participated in the sort of scheming suggested by the PM (another
school of thought holds that the shocker would really be that they had
not), but the truth is beside the point in the political game and
stakes that he is playing for.

Raila knows that, in politics, perceptions are everything. He has the
two generals and the top civil service mandarin exactly where he wants
them just a jump ahead of the Kibaki Succession: in an awkward corner.
Scrutiny is now directed against them, not only by local and
international media, but by other observers too - and not merely
international electoral observer teams of civil society worthies.

The Prime Minister's Hat at #Nyayo Stadium #Nairobi Twitpic

Expat lives: the London of Africa FT @KatrinaManson

The FT’s east Africa correspondent finds Nairobi a city that has it
all – full of extremes and contradictions

I’ve always instinctively felt out a place by the way it dances. The
jerking knees and elbows of Kinshasa embody the confusion of the
country; the shoulder-shaking eskista of Ethiopia makes physical a
nation’s pride, while the slow pelvic grind of Sierra Leone’s dancers
says something of its hedonistic spirit.

But two years in and I’ve yet to figure out Nairobi’s dance-style, and
so I’ve yet to figure out the city at all. There’s just too much to
figure. It is a city of extremes and contradictions, of gardens and
slums, picnics and panic buttons, bougainvillea and storm drains.

Created on swamplands as a railway staging post in 1899, Nairobi has
left the colonial hunting grounds of the 1920s far behind to become
the region’s economic powerhouse and a continental hub for business,
yet it is among the most unequal cities in the world.

An anthropologist tells me there’s no social glue; a consultant tells
me it’s just a place to find a job; a small-time stock market player
says he’s going to make it big and an expat says the best thing about
Nairobi is leaving it – flying or fleeing to the beaches of the coast
or the gracious green homes of the landed.

Determined to seek out its true character through dance, I have put
many hours into my research. I’ve found Congolese showcase and
electronic all-nighters, gospel and salsa. In the end, its dance
style, like its capitalism, takes on elements of the imported.

Nairobi’s osmotic cosmopolitan ways stretch from bankers cloning
western excess to poets throwing off their yokes. The city makes its
way by taking on the habits of others, grasping towards growth and the
material. Long channelled by colonial authorities to develop a
consumer class keen to spend money on markers of success and
stability, whether bicycles or gramophones, Nairobi is also a city of
class segmentation and aspiration: lunchtime Botox sessions, Imax
cinemas and city spas contrast with streetsellers who hawk roast corn
and sugar cane. The well-off live in isolated compounds –
sometimesentire streets or suburbs gated with guards, dogs and
plantations. The poor live in shacks they rent from the well-off.

But rich or poor, you need money to live here. This economy thrives
and dies by consumption. And it is a city that finds solutions. Slums
have electricity; their residents emerge in suits; come 5.30am almost
an entire city walks to work. You can buy everything from fish and
flights to power and insurance with your mobile phone.

There is pride and humour here too. One evening I discovered the
latest ever-changing uniform at one of my favourite Nairobi haunts,
where bar-staff wore micro-dresses of army camouflage. Days after
Kenya’s untested army deployed for the first time into neighbouring
Somalia in October of 2011 – an attempt to uproot some of the hardiest
jihadists going – the home front donned its sexy support.

Nairobi is also, like all big cities, a place that rewards endeavour.
When I first arrived, everything was wrong. I was off reporting
throughout the region – in South Sudan and Somaliland – before I’d
found a permanent spot to live. My introduction to the city was an
easy short-term bet, a regimented apartment block, set around a pool,
with sliding balcony door, Chinese restaurant and aerobics lessons on
tap. Meetings took place in plasticated cafés and restaurants in
shopping malls, the likes of which I have spent my life avoiding. It
was all too good, the most functional existence I’d had in years: I
was stultified.

So I went in search of some crumpled edges. I wanted some urban
intoxification, to live alongside the absorbing pace of commerce. But
the city centre offers only hotels, offices and the red-light
district. Brought up a diehard fan of cobbles, at last I discovered my
little spot – a city wilderness filled with them, around 20 minutes’
drive from the centre.

Beyond the traffic and the crime, there is much about Nairobi that’s
fascinating. Red Cross volunteers arrive the moment something goes
wrong – whether a fallen tree or grenade attack. They tweet the best
routes against traffic. Politicians discuss strategy and women over
nyama choma – the national diet of grilled goat. They tear into meat
in restaurants squeezed between car parks and casinos, or overlooking
the misty green hills that fall into the Great Rift Valley on the edge
of town.

Families explore the city park, where giraffes contend with high-rises
to fill the skyline. And where, once, our exit was blocked by a pair
of lions rutting on the tarmac. At the city sanctuary, I wrapped my
arm in an orphan baby elephant’s trunk.

My favourite day of the month is a Sunday music festival, Blankets &
Wine, where couples in flouncy outfits and beads pose on red-chequered
Maasai picnic blankets and swig booze in the blazing post-rainfall

@MuthoniDQ Founder of Blankets and Wine @Kenyamusicweek very
inspirational Twitpic

Between pirate-hunters and fashionistas, balls and hard-bitten
racecourse bets, community yoga and slum acrobats, daily life
straddles extremes. I meet government officials over teriyaki, foreign
spies over cheesecake and bankers over skewered meat.

Like all big African cities, Nairobi creaks under the weight of its
own growth – unable to accommodate its people in electricity, water,
roads and homes. In the end it is a confusion and chaos of
communities, from the “Kenyan Cowboy” white settlers of Karen to the
Somali traders of Eastleigh. Sometimes they brush up against each
other and, just every so often, reach out to each other. But usually
they don’t overcome these divides – something that may be tested come
the country’s elections on March 4.

The city has it all. And at last I realised – Nairobi is the London of
Africa. I was home all along.

Sun Set over #Nairobi Twitpic

EABL sells Castle plant land in Thika Business Daily

“Following board approval, we sold a piece of land which was no longer
of strategic importance to us,” said group corporate relations
director Brenda Mbathi.

However, she declined to disclose the identity of the buyer and the
value of the transaction of the Thika property. But sources privy to
the deal say the land was sold to a local fruit juice manufacturer.

EABL share price data here and H1 Earnings +5.66% 2013

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           280.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774976.00
Market Capitalization:        221,416,993,280
EPS:             13.46
PE:                 20.802

EABL H1 Earnings through December 2012 versus 6 months through 2011
Net Revenue 30.633b versus 27.777b +10.28188%
Cost of Sales [16.234b] versus [14.321b] +13.358%
Gross Profit 14.399b versus 13.456b +7.008%
Selling and Distribution Costs [2.541b] versus [2.311b]
Administration Expenses [3.564b] versus [3.699b]
Other Operating Expenses [0.436b] versus [0.134b]
Profit from Operations 7.858b versus 7.312b +7.467%
Net Finance Costs [2.061b] versus [0.642b] +221%
H1 Profit Before Taxation 5.797b versus 6.670b -13.088455%
H1 Profit After Taxation 3.982b versus 4.877b -18.351445%
H1 Earnings Per Share 4.75 versus 5.55 -14.4144%
Interim Dividend 1.50 per share versus 2.50 Last Time
Cash from Operating Activities 7.424b

Company Commentary
Net Revenue Kenya grew 12%
Uganda Breweries +3%
Serengeti Tanzania +16%
EABLi +28%
Total Beer Portfolio grew 11%
Total Spirits Portfolio grew 9%
Premium Spirits Portfolio +45%
New Beer Brands introduced Balozi and Kibo Gold
Jebel Gin Innovation

An Interview with Devlin Hainsworth Post 1st Half Results RICH TV

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From oil painter to the C-suite @BobCollymore @KatrinaManson
Kenyan Economy

Bob Collymore almost likes all the abuse he gets. It is a tribute,
says the smiling chief executive of Safaricom, Kenya’s biggest mobile
phone network, to the fact his customers have no intention of
switching provider.

When he stopped unlimited data use last year, he received “offensive”
messages. Some customers bombarded him on Twitter; others set up hate
websites. His decision was partly to limit the scope for “hate speech”
ahead of this year’s elections on March 4. “For two weeks I was spawn
of the devil,” he says. “Two years ago I would have been a little bit
upset about it and taken it personally. But people have short memories
– I’ll move on and tomorrow I’ll be a hero.”

As head of Safaricom, which is 40 per cent owned by Vodafone of the
UK, the 55-year-old leads a company seen as a national institution but
that is often accused of monopolistic tendencies. Mr Collymore uses
the word “dominant” before correcting himself. “Why don’t we call it
ubiquitous ... I think that’s a nice word.”

For the Guyana-born Mr Collymore, this means he is a celebrity. “They
put this whole celebrity thing on me here ... you don’t have a choice.
I can’t imagine many corporate leaders in any other part of the world
– Richard Branson maybe – who are instantly recognised,” he says.

The same was true for his predecessor, Michael Joseph, whom Mr
Collymore describes as a “benevolent dictator”. He says he was “a
little more inclusive” but soon found himself adopting a similar
approach. “Michael and I are worryingly similar.”

Safaricom has 19m customers in a country of 44m, which translates to
nearly every adult. It reported revenues of KSh116.5bn ($1.3bn) last
year and has developed an international reputation for innovation.

One reason is that for many Kenyans a mobile connection is much more
than a telephone. It is also a substitute office and bank account,
thanks to Safaricom’s M-Pesa, a money transfer system named after the
Swahili word for money that allows customers to send cash via text
message. The service is used by 15m customers to buy everything from
sugar to flights, at an average 80 transactions a second. It is so
successful that 31 per cent of Kenya’s GDP washes through the system,
and it has been exported to India and Qatar.

The company’s latest initiative is M-Shwari, a savings and lending
service. “There’s KSh200bn-KSh300bn sitting in mattresses or locked
boxes. At the moment, if your shack goes up in flames so does your
money,” he says of the appeal of interest-earning M-Shwari accounts.

His statement may be all too prescient. Five years ago, 100,000 homes
were burnt or looted when disputed elections sent the country into a
tailspin. Allegations of vote-rigging triggered violence that killed
more than 1,100 people and displaced more than 660,000. Growth in east
Africa’s biggest economy plummeted to an annual rate of 1.5 per cent
from 7 per cent a year earlier.
In the hope of avoiding a repeat of such chaos, Safaricom will for the
first time relay results directly from polling stations to tallying
centres, and is already sending out election education messages to
some of the country’s 14m registered voters. “We are a huge part of
democracy,” says Mr Collymore, who expects “flare-ups” but no
2008-style meltdown. “It will be much tougher [to rig].”

While his biggest nightmare is always the outage of M-Pesa, which
slows when demand spikes, he worries the entire network may overload
during the election. “We’ve got a plan of action ... we have to keep
the country communicating ... and we have to keep money flowing,” he

The greater risk for the country is a political deficit, and after the
election he says he will focus on combating corruption. “We have to
get rid of corruption in Africa – Africa could be such a great
investment destination if we can just deal with those issues,” he
says. “Young people feel economically, politically, socially
disempowered – and that is being vented in a few places but not vented
in the places it should matter.”

He points to events in the Middle East and north Africa as a potential
harbinger of what could happen in Kenya. “The thing that triggered the
Arab spring was not political; it was social discontent. The gap
between rich and poor here is growing ... and that, I think, presents
us with a bigger challenge.”

Mr Collymore, who watches Kenya’s evolving political scenarios as if
he is a citizen himself, has made quick work of becoming a national
champion, and regularly appeals to national sentiment despite his
British-Guyanan background. “Now I say, ‘me I’m Kenyan, me’,” he says,
teasing out a typical turn of phrase. Many Kenyans seem to appreciate
his efforts: he was awarded the Moran of the Burning Spear by the
president last year – a prize rarely given to foreigners – was
presented with a goat for his birthday and is often urged to get “a
piece of land” in keeping with local tradition.
Mr Collymore’s ability to adapt to new contexts was nurtured from an
early age. He was raised by his grandparents in Guyana for 12 years
and when he was 16 his mother, who had moved to the UK, brought him to
join her in London. As the only black child in his class, he tried to
be “wallpaper” to avoid getting beaten up. “I didn’t even know what
the word ‘wog’ was until I got there. I didn’t know what racial abuse
was,” he says.

After school, he had to forgo a place at Warwick University because he
was not eligible for funding. “I wanted to go to university and I
disliked not having gone and for some years after I wished I’d gone,”
he says. “Now it doesn’t matter, [but] I would always advise a young
person to go to the best university you can find.”

When graduates ask for his advice, however, he preaches the value of
being able to adapt, an attribute that has driven his own career.
Unable to pursue a degree, Mr Collymore spent his time filling forms
as a junior underwriter and working as a train announcer while
pursuing his passion for “surrealist stuff”.

Were it not for his mother, he might still be selling his oil
paintings along the railings of Hyde Park. But she joked she would
evict him unless he got a serious job and got him an interview at
British Telecom, where she worked. He was given an entry-level job as
a clerical officer.

His career took off when he joined the UK’s Cellnet in 1993, just as
the corporate world was starting to venture into mobile telephony. “I
was walking down a path no one else had walked and I thought, ‘this is
good because the rules aren’t written and I’m just going to make the
rules up as I go’,” he says. “We took some risks. This change thing –
it is actually quite exciting, it’s good, and you will make mistakes
and you will stumble and fall and that’s quite neat.”

The hankering after new ground and love of adaptability has served him
well. “I didn’t go to the smart university; this is probably the only
thing which has ever distinguished me,” he says. “Nothing beats this

read more

Safaricom share price data here +12.871% 2013
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           5.70
Total Shares Issued:          40000000000.00
Market Capitalization:        228,000,000,000
EPS:             0.32
PE:                 17.813

Etihad Airways to enter into partnership with Kenyan Airlines to
Expand across Africa. Photo – Sylvain Muglia/Flickr

The code-sharing agreement will allow Etihad to place its EY code on
Kenya Airways flights from Nairobi to 27 destinations across its
network in Africa. The Kenya Airways will reciprocate by placing its
KQ code on Etihad’s daily service from Nairobi to Abu Dhabi and, if
approved by the government, about 32 other destinations as well. After
this deal, Etihad will have 42 code-share partners, with a combined
passenger network of 349 destinations. These figures are higher than
any other Middle East airline and make Etihad the premier choice of

Under the deal, Kenya Airways will also increase the frequency its
flight service between Nairobi and Abu Dhabi to thrice a week from
mid-summer 2013. The partnership strategy will further boost
connectivity to the UAE through the launch of newly services to Abu

James Hogan, Etihad Airways president and CEO, said: “The partnership
agreement with Kenya Airways is in line with our strategy of forming
alliances with airlines around the world to enhance our network and
marketing reach. This agreement will also allow both airlines to
benefit from cost savings achieved through synergies and economies of

The code-sharing deal will allow Etihad to expand its footprint across
Africa. Last year, the carrier had launched new services to Tripoli,
Nairobi and Lagos. The demand for travel to Africa has been steadily
growing in recent years as the continent is explored for business and
leisure purposes. To cater to this booming demand, Etihad has taken
complementary steps by more than doubling the offered services to
Africa. During the last five years, approximately three million
passengers have flown between Africa and the UAE using Etihad’s

Kenya Airways share Price data here

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21-JAN-2013 ::The Pride of Africa @Kenya Airways The Star.
Kenyan Economy

Africa remains a very asymmetric market. The corporate intelligence
built up over 35 years is not something that can be replicated

I think we are going to see a series of positive surprises this year
and that Kenya Airways has the potential to rally really hard.

read more

An Interview with Titus Naikuni CEO Kenya Airways RICH TV
Kenyan Economy

Embraer Party #KQ #Nairobi @KenyaAirways Twitpic

Longhorn Kenya reports H1 Earnings here

Par Value:
Closing Price:           9.00
Total Shares Issued:          58500000.00
Market Capitalization:        526,500,000
EPS:             -0.38
PE:                 -23.684

A leading Publishing firm in East Africa.

Half Year Results through Dec 2012 versus 6 Months through June 2012
Inventories 85.669m versus 275.038m
Trade and other Receivables 272.043m versus 156.662m
Sales 525.624m versus 775.943m
Cost of Sales [237.619m] versus [358.722m]
Gross Profit 287.645m versus 417.221m
Administrative Expenses [78.302m] versus [274.004m]
Provisions for Inventories and Receivables [134.142m] versus [79.990m]
Operating Profit 24.174m versus [25.949m]
H1 PBT 24.174m versus [22.465m]
H1 PAT 16.922m versus [22.465m]

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  Year To Date +10.97%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg Year To Date +8.34%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share eased 0.15 Points to close at 104.92.
The Nairobi All Share is +10.605% in 2013.
The Nairobi All Share has retreated 4.1826% since closing at a Multi
Year High on the 13th of February.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased 14.24 Points to close at 4463.65.
EABL traded a Banner Session with  3.153m shares worth 882.883m
changing hands and closed unchanged.
Kenya Commercial Bank was trading within 0.649% of a Record at the Closing Bell.
Uchumi and East African Portland released H1 Earnings

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Uchumi released H1 Earnings Pre-Market Opening today where H1 Net
Sales expanded 1.13% to 7.588712b, Gross Profit expanded 6.871% to
1.476017b, H1
Operating Expenses accelerated 18.093% to 1.547145b, H1 PBT decreased
-35.406% to 131.934m,  H1 Earnings Per Share decreased -35.064% to
0.50. Uchumi was low ticked 1.2755% to close at 19.35 on light volume
9,000 shares. The Headline Numbers are veiling what I believe is an
aggressive CAPEX and expansion Program. I expect a Price of 25.00 by
Mid Year.

Uchumi share price data and H1 Earnings Release here

Jonathan Ciano Uchumi CEO @ Ambassador of Belgium 105 Days ago

Safaricom eased 0.88% to close at 5.90 and traded 1.233m shares. There
was Buy Side Demand for 1,589% more shares than were traded during the
Session. The Price is underwritten here and Supply is in fact thin.

Kenya Airways firmed 0.47% to close at 10.65 and traded 64,500 shares.
There is very little on Offer on the Card upto 11.50. Kenya Airways
has all the Bad News baked into the Price and None of the Good and I
expect a String of Positive Surprises this Year. The Code Share with
Etihaad is an example of a Positive Surprise and and a smart

Access Kenya corrected 4.065% lower to close at 5.90 and traded 97,200
shares. Supply outweighed Demand by a Factor of 283 versus 119. Access
Kenya remains +34.090% in 2013 but has corrected 14.492% since
reaching a 19 Month Closing High of 6.90 on the 18th of February.

Access Kenya share price data here +34.090% 2013

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank traded 2nd at the Exchange and firmed 1.369% to
close at 37.00 and was trading at Session Highs of 38.25 +4.79% at the
Closing Bell. Kenya Commercial Bank traded 3.253m shares worth
120.865m. Kenya Commercial Bank will release FY Earnings this thursday
and is +24.369% so far in 2013. Kenya Commercial Bank was trading
0.649% off its All Time Closing High of 38.50 reached on the 13th of
February at the Closing Bell.

Kenya Commercial Bank share price data here +24.369% 2013

COOP Bank traded 3rd at the Securities Exchange. COOP Bank eased 0.38%
to close at 13.05 and traded 3.734m shares worth 48.915m. COOP Bank is
+3.571% in 2013.
Diamond Trust Bank closed unchanged at 140.00 a Record Closing High.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 26.75 and traded 802,500 shares worth 21.466m.
Barclays Bank firmed 0.31% to close at 16.25 and was trading at 16.35
+0.93% at the Finish Line. Barclays Bank traded 255,500 shares.
Standard Chartered eased 1.85% to close at 265.00 and traded 19,400
shares. On an Implied Forward PE Standard Chartered is a very cheap
stock. The Penny will drop after the Release of FY Earnings.

NIC Bank corrected 2.208% lower to close at 44.25 and traded 56,900 shares.

Pan Africa Insurance closed unchanged at 48.00 but was trading at
Session Highs of 50.00 +4.17% at the Closing Bell. Pan Africa
Insurance is +19.254% in 2013, released strong FY Earnings where FY
PAT expanded +57.479% to 698.271m and todays Intra Day high of 50.00
was a 21 month Intra Day High.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL traded 3.153m shares worth 882.883m in what was the highest
Volume Session in 2013. EABL traded 75.734% of a Banner Session at the
Securities Exchange. EABL is +5.66% in 2013 and has corrected 11.111%
off a Record Closing High of 315.00 from the 13th of this Month. EABL
released H1 Earnings where H1 PBT reduced -13.088455% and then
subsequently announced that the MD Devlin Hainsworth was set to resign
at the End of March. EABL will set Fresh All Time Highs this Year.

EABL share price data and Earnings here +5.66% 2013

East African Portland Cement released H1 Earnings Pre Market Opening
where H1 PBT swung into a Profit of 376.52m versus a Loss of
[247.201m], H1 Earnings Per Share was 3.63 versus a Loss of [4.18]
previously. The Company carries a Yen Loan on its Books and was able
to book a Forex Gain of 145m and as such are probably Cheerleaders of
Abenomics. East African Portland traded 128,800 shares worth 5.924m
all at 46.00 -1.6%.

East African Portland Cement share Price data and H1 Earnings Release here

BAT traded 40,200 shares worth 21.306m all at 530 + 0.19%. BAT is
+7.94% in 2013 and 1.851% below its all time Closing High of 540.00
reached this Year.

Express was the biggest Gainer rallying 8.2% to close at 3.30 on light
volume of 3,300 shares.

Crown Paints firmed 3.66% to close at 42.50 and traded 5,300 shares.

KenGen retreated a further 1.38% to close at 10.80 and traded 100,900
shares. KenGen is +22.727% in 2013 but has corrected 7.296% over 2
Session since learning that KenGen is proposing a 30b Kenya Shilling
20 Year Geothermal Backed Bond.
Kenya Power corrected 2.849% lower to close at 17.05 and traded 13,600
shares. Kenya Power is -0.292% in 2013 and has corrected 10.498% since
closing at a 2013 High on Feb 14th.

Mumias Sugar rebounded 2.16% to close at 4.75 and traded 636,200 shares.

Total Kenya which rallied 8.21% in the previous Session retreated
7.26% today to close at 14.05 and traded 10,200 shares.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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February 2013

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