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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 26th of February 2013

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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Kenya Inc. Manifestoes, Dreams and Real Life The Star

Of Course, I would like to drive a very Fast Car like a Maserati, have
my own Private Plane on Stand By, a bevy of Dolly Birds [no Disrespect
intended I am a fanatical Feminist] to cater to my every whim, The
Finest Champagne at my Elbow and a Bank Account whose complexity was
around computing the number of zeros after the 1. I have met several
Folks, who exist in that Ultra Net Worth Stratosphere, one of whom
parked his $70m Jet at Wilson Airport until I said, By The Time We
return from Lamu, Your Plane might be in Mogadishu! I would like to
exist at 35,000 Feet and whilst we are compiling My Wish List, I would
like to be returned to my Twenties with the Knowledge I have now so i
could savour and get intoxicated on Life because Life is so fleeting
and such a Precious Gift.

We sit on the Cusp of a Break Out Moment. We cannot afford to fail.

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@JohnGithongo and @MaggieIreri at Mindspeak RICH TV

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

A Lioness gets a Better View Lewa Kenya

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The spokesman for Italy’s Democratic Party candidate Pier Luigi Bersani said projections of the election results “show a risk of ungovernability.”
Law & Politics

Messy Italian Election Shakes World Markets WSJ

Democratic Party's Pier Luigi Bersani appeared to have gained a
razor-thin victory in the lower house of parliament over the
center-right coalition headed by Mr. Berlusconi—29.6% to 29.2% with
99.9% of the ballots counted. By leading the vote count in the lower
house, the Democratic Party will automatically get the majority of
seats and, therefore, will likely receive the mandate to form a

The Senate, however, appeared headed for political impasse. The
Democratic Party was the leading vote-getter in the upper house as
well, by less than one percentage point. But its 31.6% result fails to
provide its coalition with a majority to pass legislation. If a new
government isn't able to guarantee clear parliamentary support,
Italians could return to the polls within months.

"Whoever thought Berlusconi was finished will have to think again,"
said Angelino Alfano, the head of People of Freedom, the conservative
party founded by Mr. Berlusconi.

"The cost of austerity led to an electoral rebellion," said Enrico
Letta, deputy head of the Democratic Party. "This is a complex
situation to live and manage."

The apparent stalemate reflects the groundswell of support for former
comedian Beppe Grillo's Five-Star Movement. His throw-the-rascals-out
platform drew enough voters to give it nearly as many votes as Italy's
mainstream coalitions—25.6% in the lower house at the latest count,
making it the single largest party in that house.

Messrs. Grillo and Berlusconi both gave voice to Italian anger over
tax increases and pension cuts introduced by the emergency government
of Mario Monti, whose own Civic Choice coalition ended up with about
10% of the national vote in both houses, according to the unofficial

"The big difference between Italy and Portugal or Greece is size.
Political instability or uncertainty in the euro-zone's third-largest
economy will have negative systemic consequences for everyone else,"
said Sony Kapoor.

Italians poured their disaffection into a bucket of votes for Mr.
Grillo. The former comedian isn't himself actually planning to be a
member of parliament, but has named a slew of candidates—including
many 20-somethings who have never been in politics—to take his party's

"We precisely laid the bases for Italy's reform and therefore to allow
the inevitable travails of elections to occur in the most tranquil
context possible," Mr. Monti said, adding that his government would
"watch over the aftermath of elections."


"The situation looks ungovernable, and that's the worst outcome you
can imagine," said Guido Rosa, president of the Italian Foreign Bank

I used to trade Italy in the 1990s and we appear to have returned to
that Period when Governments would fall in less than a Year.

Essentially The Markets have had to re price the Euro Tail Risk higher.

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By the third quarter of last year, U.S. household debt payments were 10.6 percent of their after-tax income Reuters
International Trade

By the third quarter of last year, U.S. household debt payments were
10.6 percent of their after-tax income, the lowest ratio since 1983
and down from a record high 14.1 percent in late 2007.

U.S. economist Milton Friedman once observed that a recovery from
recession is like plucking a guitar string: The harder the economy is
pushed down, the faster it snaps back.

The pace of auto sales in January would have Americans buying 15.3
million vehicles a year, just below pre-recession levels. In 2012,
auto sales were the highest in five years.

Steam is also gathering in the housing market. Home builders large and
small are reporting big gains in new orders as prices rise and the
supply of homes on the market dwindles. In January, the inventory of
existing homes fell to a 13-year low.

The next few months could nevertheless be rough.

Executives from retail giant Wal-Mart and restaurant companies such as
Olive Garden owner Darden Restaurants warned last week that higher
taxes have hurt customers' spending power.

The scheduled federal budget cuts already have government agencies
planning to slash the workweeks of hundreds of thousands of workers.
This could shave half a percentage point from economic growth in 2013,
and gross domestic product is seen growing just 2 percent in the full

After years in which the lingering effects of the housing bust
dampened the recovery, the guitar string is starting to make a more
familiar sound.


Increasingly The Patient is stirring.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3052 weakest since Jan. 10
Dollar Index 81.86 the highest since Aug. 22
Japan Yen 92.04 yesterday touched 90.88, the strongest level since Jan. 31
Swiss Franc 0.9304
Pound 1.5197
Aussie 1.0274
India Rupee 54.075
South Korea Won 1088.30
Brazil Real 1.9836
Egypt Pound 6.7417
South Africa Rand 8.8311

The yen has declined 4.8 percent this year, the second- biggest loser
among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The pound has seen the biggest decline
of 5.2 percent.

Euro versus the Dollar 5 day Chart INO 1.3047 Last

Forecasts by state broadcaster RAI showed Bersani winning the lower
chamber and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi with a blocking
minority in the Senate.

Dollar Yen 5 Day Chart INO 92.04 Last

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.88 Last the highest since Aug. 22

Japan 10-Year Yields Reach 2003 Low Bloomberg

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell three basis points to
0.675 percent at 1:15 p.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, according to Japan
Bond Trading Co., the nation’s largest interdealer debt broker. The
price of the 0.8 percent security maturing in December 2022 advanced
0.278 yen to 101.149. Five-year rates declined half a basis point to
0.115 percent. Thirty-year yields fell three basis points to 1.87
percent, the least since Sept. 27. Twenty-year yields dropped three
basis points to 1.68 percent, the lowest level since Dec. 13. A basis
point is 0.01 percentage point.

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 92.43 Last

WTI for April delivery dropped as much as $1.19 in electronic trading
on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $92.55 at 11:46 a.m.
Singapore time. Futures declined as much as 1.3 percent to $91.92 a
barrel, the lowest intraday price since Jan. 4

Iran, which is under a Western embargo on its oil exports, will meet
the U.S., China, France, Germany, Russia and the U.K. today in Almaty,
Kazakhstan, after an eight-month lull.


Triple Digits resisted the Advance and Crude has turned much softer.
The Stronger Dollar has also taken the Froth off.

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1592.50 Last

Gold has dropped 4.8 percent this year.Gold for April delivery traded
at $1,596.10 an ounce on the Comex at 11:36 a.m. in Singapore, poised
for a fifth monthly drop in what would be the worst run since 1997.
Holdings in ETPs, also known as exchange-traded funds, fell to a
five-month low of 2,536.289 metric tons yesterday and have shrunk 2.9
percent this month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Gold futures fell
to $1,554.30 on Feb. 21, the lowest since June 29.


Increasingly The Talk is of a Market Turning Point.

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Narisawa in Tokyo Tops List of Asia’s 50 Best Restaurants Bloomberg

Chef Yoshihiro Narisawa’s Tokyo establishment Narisawa took the top
spot in the inaugural list of Asia’s 50 Best Restaurants, announced in

A cauliflower mousse with sea urchin at Iggy's restaurant in
Singapore, provided to the media on Nov. 3, 2008. Source: Iggy's via

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Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Zanzibar church killing mars music festival promoting religious tolerance Guardian

Beneath a starry sky and between the twin turrets of the 18th-century
Old Fort on Stone Town's seafront, one of Africa's most prestigious
and amiable music festivals, Sauti za Busara – "sounds of wisdom" in
Swahili – was celebrating its 10th anniversary.

Its director, Yusuf Mahmoud, addressed the cosmopolitan crowd that had
come to hear musicians from Mali and Senegal, Zimbabwe, Ghana and
Tanzania. "Breaking down barriers between Muslims and Christians,
black and white" was a major purpose of the festival, Mahmoud
explained. His call for music to promote harmony was greeted with loud

But before the four-day festival had concluded earlier this month a
Catholic priest had been murdered and a church has since been torched
in what are just the latest examples of similar attacks on the holiday

Father Evarist Mushi, 55, was shot dead in the early hours of 17
February in Mtoni, near Stone Town. Two days later, a security guard
at the Pool of Siloan church was attacked by three men and the
building set on fire. It was the second such attack on the church and
the 26th on religious institutions in recent years.


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03-SEP-2012 :: Coast problems are deeper than Riots

Dollar versus Rand 5 Day Chart INO 8.8621 Last

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.7352 Last


I look for 7.00.

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Charges facing Kenyatta cast shadow over Kenya election FT
Kenyan Economy

Uhuru Kenyatta describes facing charges of crimes against humanity
while running for Kenyan president as “a personal issue”.

Mr Kenyatta is indicted at the International Criminal Court over his
alleged role in Kenyan election violence five years ago that killed
more than 1,100, displaced 660,000 and sent the economy into a
tailspin. He has pleaded not guilty. His trial, due to start at The
Hague in April, will likely clash with the date of a second-round
runoff vote that seems likely, given that polls put him neck and neck
with rival Raila Odinga, the prime minister.

While the case makes it harder for diplomats and donors, who can only
meet ICC indictees under restricted circumstances, to work in Kenya,
the more immediate question is whether the charges will make it harder
for voters to back Mr Kenyatta in a tight March 4 election.

The trial has become one of the most divisive issues in the campaign.
Mr Odinga has said it would not be possible for Mr Kenyatta to run the
“government by Skype” while he attends his trial in The Hague. The
prime minister’s team, which commissions its own private opinion
polls, said the ICC was putting off voters in Mr Kenyatta’s central
Kenyan heartland.

“A quarter of their own voters think it’s a problem, that it will have
a negative economic impact,” an Odinga adviser said.

Many fear that if Mr Kenyatta won the election and refused to attend
the trial other countries could take actions, ranging from diverting
aid and investment to sanctions that would render the regional hub a
pariah state.

“Choices have consequences,” US assistant secretary of African affairs
Johnnie Carson repeatedly told Kenyans this month, without
elaborating. Analysts said his comment was a deliberate attempt to row
back from a statement by Barack Obama, who said this month the US was
a strong friend to Kenya and voters were free to choose their leader.
Mr Kenyatta’s team interpreted the US president’s comments as being
supportive of them.

A western diplomat said if Kenya refused to co-operate with an ICC
arrest warrant for Mr Kenyatta then all financial transactions through
government could be submitted to checks to determine that
beneficiaries were not indictees. “It’s not even a threat, it’s what
we are bound to as our legal obligation,” the diplomat said

Many voters in central Kenya said the ICC case would not make a
difference to them. The latest opinion polls suggest that Mr Kenyatta
has overtaken Mr Odinga’s initial lead in the race.

“Kenyans in their mind have already voted: this country can stand on
its own,” said Simon Kimutai, chairman of the Matatu [minibus taxi]
Owners’ Association at a rally in Kasarani, north of Nairobi, where Mr
Kenyatta implored the country’s half a million transport workers to
come out and vote.

Mr Kenyatta’s campaign team at first tried to ignore the ICC case but
has since sought to use it to his advantage. When diplomats voiced
concerns about the consequences of electing an indictee, Mr Kenyatta’s
team complained of neocolonial western political interference.

Newspaper columnists have accused diplomats of behaving like “bwana” –
the Swahili word for “Mister” that implies the arrogance of colonial
rule. The head of the civil service condemned outsiders for their
“attempt to dictate to Kenyans who to elect”.

A paper from the UK’s Chatham House think-tank said this month
“Kenyatta and [William] Ruto [presidential running mate also indicted
at the ICC] have both gained popularity since the ICC’s charges
against them were announced”.

Sam Ongeri, foreign minister and a supporter of Mr Kenyatta’s jubilee
coalition accused diplomats of “an orchestrated attempt by a number of
you to influence the way Kenyans conduct their forthcoming elections”.

A well-informed political observer said: “The ICC is the making of
Uhuru as president – without the ICC, Uhuru is a very anaemic

In the face of fears that an indicted president could affect the
country’s creditworthiness and ability to borrow on international
markets, Mr Kenyatta’s camp insisted that the country’s economic
future was bright. Supporters cited forecasts from the International
Monetary Fund that growth will rise to 5.8 per cent this year, if
elections go smoothly.

“The economic experts are saying one thing, the ambassadors another,”
a member of his campaign team said.

Mr Kenyatta’s team has submitted applications to move the trial to
Arusha in Tanzania, which it says is “a 20-minute ride by private
jet”, and to conduct proceedings by video link. This would make it
easier to work as president and attend trial.

@BarackObama's Message to Kenyan People and a Tsunami of Messaging The Star

Habari Yako started President @BarackObama 's Message to the Kenyan
people delivered via a Podcast, earlier this week. The President
continued to say ''The choice of who will lead Kenya is up to the
Kenyan people. The United States does not endorse any candidate for
office, but we do support an election that is peaceful and reflects
the will of the people.''

And then signs off in his inimitable style with ''And I say to all of
you who are willing to walk this path of progress-you will continue to
have a strong friend and partner in the United States of America.

Coincidentally and on the very same Day, The British High Commissioner
to Kenya Dr. Christian Turner said:'“The UK will remain impartial.
What is important to us is not who wins the general election but how
he wins the polls” and then via Twitter reiterated that ''Whoever wins
election, ongoing Kenyan co-operation with ICC essential.''

And Then on Friday Johnnie Carson the assistant secretary of the
Bureau of African Affairs on US--Africa foreign policy weighed in:

"Choices have consequences, We live in an interconnected world and
people should be thoughtful about the impact that their choices have
on their nation, on the region, on the economy, on the society and on
the world in which they live. Choices have consequences.”

Carson Speaking to Kenyan journalists from Washington via video link
warned that as much as the general election is a Kenyan affair, its
outcome will have implications since a president "must work with the
international community."

The French Ambassador to Kenya Etienne De Poncins added on Friday
that: "France will stick to the EU stand to respect the ICC, and the
member countries in relation to ICC suspects."

What is an absolute truth is that Kenyans have the absolute right to
vote for whomsoever we wish to vote for.

Now how do we parse this deluge of comments? We self-referred
ourselves to The ICC with our mantra 'Don't be Vague Let's go to The
Hague.' So the idea that this is an evil conspiracy hatched outside
Kenya does not stack up. We self-selected the ICC. Interestingly, the
myth around the ICC has consolidated the vote on a tribal basis.

And the messages we heard last week from our western partners has only
consolidated it further. In fact, it's very counter intuitive but
commentary from the West has actually snagged votes for Uhuru Kenyatta
and William Ruto and my analysis now shows they have a shot at taking
this lock, stock and barrel in the 1st Round,

The sanctions risk is [in my view] only triggered if having won the
popular mandate the newly minted President and his deputy decide to
skip the ICC process. And whilst many folks tend to pose the question
back to me 'Would You go, Aly-Khan?'

I will take Mr Kenyatta at his word. He wins big and confounds
everyone by making his way to the Hague.

By way of contrast, China had already stated the following “No matter
who is elected, the Chinese Government is willing to work with the
Kenyan Government,” said Chinese Embassy to Kenya chief of
communications and public affairs Shifan Yu.

It is clear that China is willing to work with whomever and that can
be taken to the bank. President Omar Al-Bashir has been relying on
China's guarantee for quite a while now. It has not been a road strewn
with scented rose petals for Khartoum, however.

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If Raila Odinga wins Kenya's elections, Britain's interests are secure, but if Uhuru Kenyatta wins...Independent
Kenyan Economy

Uhuru Kenyatta's first official act as Kenyan president, if he is
sworn in on 10 April, will be to appear in The Hague the following day
to face charges of crimes against humanity. The son of Jomo Kenyatta –
the country's first leader after independence – he denies the charges,
but the legal process is expected to take years, creating alarm and
uncertainty over what is going to unfold in one of Britain's main
allies in Africa.

The British Government faces a conundrum: it could continue its
current policy of having nothing but the "most essential" contact with
a political leader facing such serious charges, but at what cost to UK
trade and security?

Britain's critical strategic alliance with Kenya extends not only to
trade and to aid distribution across East Africa, but also to
ever-closer military and security links. Kenya is the centre for
security operations by the UK and the West against the Islamist
al-Shabaab group in neighbouring Somalia, a country which the head of
MI5, Jonathan Evans, has described as second only to Pakistan as a
destination for extremist British Muslims.

The British military teams sent to train Somali forces (as part of the
strategy to build up security in countries facing insurgencies) will
have their logistical support base in the country. One of the British
Army's main exercise areas overseas is also in Kenya and is used by
brigades in preparation for deployment to Afghanistan.

Kenya is the hub of British aid programmes for neighbouring countries.
Trade between the two nations grew to £1bn last year and the UK is the
largest single foreign investor with projects totalling £2bn and
around 70 companies involved.

Mr Kenyatta has warned that any sanctions by the UK or the West would
persuade a government run by him to turn to other international
partners – especially the Chinese, whose influence across Africa is
growing rapidly.

There is widespread trepidation that like the last Kenyan elections,
those this March will also be mired in strife. There are reports of
arms being stockpiled and inflammatory rhetoric along tribal and
sectarian lines. The risk of violence is "perilously high", a report
by Human Rights Watch has warned. There have been a series of attacks
among rival groups, with seven people shot dead last week at a mosque
in north-eastern Kenya near the Somali border.

Wide-ranging reforms have been carried out at the instigation of the
US and the UK. However, in this febrile and politically charged
climate, Britain has been accused by Mr Kenyatta's followers of
arrogance and interference. A part played by the UK's Department for
International Development in voter registration has been portrayed as
part of a plot to manipulate Kenya's polls.

A legal attempt to stop Mr Kenyatta from running in the elections was
thrown out by a Nairobi court. He currently narrowly trails Raila
Odinga, the current Prime Minister – portrayed as the West's sponsored
candidate – by 45 per cent to 43 per cent in the polls. The contest is
widely expected to go to a second round of voting after an indecisive
first round on 4 March.

Mr Kenyatta has insisted he will appear before the International
Criminal Court (ICC). But he said: "If Kenyans do vote for us, it will
mean they themselves have questioned the process that has landed us at
the International Criminal Court. But that does not mean that we will
cease to co-operate because as I have said most importantly we
understand and recognise the rule of law and we will continue to
co-operate as long as we are signatories to the Rome Statute."

The US government and a number of European governments have made
public pronouncements urging people to desist from violence and
warning of the difficulties that will be caused if Mr Kenyatta is

When the UK High Commissioner, Christian Turner, stressed that the UK
will have minimal contact with anyone indicted by the ICC, it was
seized as an example of colonial hubris. Mr Kenyatta said: "In fact
the negative impact is on the British. Kenyans are showing they are
not keen on foreigners telling them what to do. His remarks helped us
out. Many countries are willing to deal with Kenya. We have a good
relationship with China, and when one door closes another one opens."

Peter Cheboi, a political scientist, pointed out that any impression
of interference by Britain and the West could backfire. "There could
be a backlash against people of European descent."


The United Kingdom has deep embedded Ties with Kenya. Kenya remains
the Anchor Stake in the Region and the Geopolitical Pivot. The
Situation is now fast moving and fluid and requires a nuanced
approach. United Kingdom Companies [Diageo PLC, Barclays PLC, Vodafone
to name 3 but There are plenty more] represent over 50% of the Market
Capitalisation of the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The Economic value
of that Stake alone is around $7.5b. The Military Relationship is a
National Interest for both Countries. The Oil and Gas is set to be a
c21st Energy Prize. An ideological Position is set to trumped by one
that considers RealPolitik. To lose Kenya to China, at this juncture
makes zero sense given that We are seeking to promote Democracy. Where
the Election is free and Fair [and I have no reason to believe it will
be any other way] then it behoves Her Majesty's Government to deal
with the properly elected Government. It now looks like an Increasing
Certainty that The next Government will be led by Mr. Kenyatta. Mr.
Kenyatta has made numerous pledges that he will cooperate with the
ICC. He has to be taken at his Word. Aly-Khan Satchu

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East African Cables releases FY 2012 PAT +65.8755% Earnings here +14.957% 2013
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           13.45
Total Shares Issued:          253130000.00
Market Capitalization:        3,404,598,500
EPS:             1.74
PE:                 7.72

FY Earnings through December 2012 versus FY Earnings through 2011

Turnover 4.300608b versus 4.971665b -13.497%
Net Finance Costs [22.14m] versus [112.145m] -80.2577%
FY PBT 753.243m versus 464.756m +62.072%
FY PAT 522.060m versus 314.730m +65.8755%
FY EPS 1.74 versus 1.15. +51.3043%
Revaluation of Property of Equipment 494.164m versus 0.00
Final dividend of 0.60 shillings per share [in addition to an interim
dividend of 0.40 shillings] versus 0.80 in 2011

Company Commentary

"The growth in earnings was driven by increased export sales,
production efficiency, cost reduction, more stability in the regional
currencies and improved profit from our subsidiary in Tanzania," the
company said on Monday.

Strong Results.
Finance Costs considerably reduced.
Turnover down -13.497% however.

Uchumi H1 PBT -35.406% Earnings here +1.308% 2013

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           19.60
Total Shares Issued:          265430000.00
Market Capitalization:        5,202,428,000
EPS:             1.03
PE:                 19.029

H1 Ended 31st December 2012 versus 31st December 2011
Net Sales 7.588712b versus 7.503674b
Gross Profit 1.476017b versus 1.381114b
Other Income 213.198m versus 146.991m
Operating Expenses [1.547145b] versus [1.310099b]
Profit From Operating Activities 142.070m versus 218.006m
H1 PBT 131.934m versus 204.253m -35.406%
H1 PAT 0.50 versus 0.77 -35.064%
Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Period [327.242m] versus 208.64m


They are evidently investing in the Roll Out.
I remain of the View We will see 25.00 after the Rights Issue.

Jonathan Ciano Uchumi CEO @ Ambassador of Belgium 105 Days ago


East African Portland Cement H1 Earnings here +17.948% 2013

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           46.75
Total Shares Issued:          90000000.00
Market Capitalization:        4,207,500,000
EPS:             -9.09
PE:                 -5.143

H1 Earnings through 31st December 2012 versus H1 through December 2011

H1 Revenue 4.549385b versus 4.952435b
Cost of Sales [3.204266b] versus [4.062310b]
Gross Profit 1.345119b versus 0.890125b
Other Operating Income 42.447m versus 5.443m
Admin and Selling Expenses [1.000298b] versus [1.126259b]
H1 PBT 376.52m versus [247.201m]
H1 PAT 327.193m versus [376.634m]
H1 EPS 3.63 versus [4.18]
Forex Gain of 145m. [They have a Yen Loan and therefore should be
Cheerleaders of Abenomics]


Strong Turn Around Results.
They booked a Forex Gain via a Yen Loan that is on the Books and
therefore They must be cheerleaders of Abenomics.

Brace for higher power bills as State now supports new tariffs Nation


The government has thrown its weight behind Kenya Power’s intention to
increase electricity tariffs starting next month, saying the increment
will raise finances required for construction of new energy generation

“Consumers should bear with us for the next five to six years, after
which the tariff will come down substantially,” said Mr Nyoike.

However, the commercial sector, represented at the forum by the Kenya
Private Sector Alliance (Kepsa) and the Kenya Association of
Manufacturers (KAM), strongly opposed the intended increment, saying
the move would impact negatively on the competitiveness of Kenya as an
investment destination.

In a letter to ERC, the power supplier is seeking the nod to implement
an upward tariff review that will increase the prevailing electricity
bills for consumers.

If effected, the fixed charge is poised to jump to Sh200 from the
current Sh120 starting next month and further to Sh250 in July. It
would then jump to Sh300 by 2016.


Some Thoughts from Someone who should know

1. KPLC  pays 12b to on 4.5% of total energy bought by KPLC  which has
been going on for 6 years.

2. KENGEN supplies 74% energy and costs kplc 29b per year.

3. KPLC generated Ksh 12B net cash last year, spent 31b in buying
cables and spares, enough for next 2 to 3 years. Reason is......

4. KPLC Staff costs increased 55% over last 4 years, 11b per year
whilst staff reduced from 11,000 to 10,000.

7. KPLC can reduce transmission losses from 17% to 12%, and save further 5b.

Kenya to issue geothermal bonds Project Finance International


The Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) is planning to use
asset-backed securities to raise over Sh30bn (US$342m) through a
20-year bond for its geothermal expansion plans. It plans to use
pre-drilled steam as collateral to raise capital from the markets. The
money will be used to build power plants and the revenue from the sale
of power will pay down the debt. KenGen needs about US$5bn in the next
five years to double current total capacity to 3,000MW. It expects
approval for the bond issue from regulator Capital Markets Authority
in a few months.

Kenya Electricity share price data here +22.727% in 2013

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           10.80
Total Shares Issued:          2198361344.00
Market Capitalization:        23,742,302,515
EPS:             1.29
PE:                 8.372

Geothermal OlKaria IV Kenya Twitpic

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +10.605% in 2013.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg Year To Date:  +8.00%


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share turned 0.27 points higher to close at 105.19.
The Nairobi All Share rallied 15.433% from the Start of the Year
through Feb 13th.
Feb 13th through this Mornings Opening the Nairobi All Share corrected
4.1826% lower.
The Market has been in a Bull Move since May 2012 and corrections have
been shallow since that Time.
The Correction in a Bull Trend looks complete.
The Equity Market would prefer a Clear Winner in Round 1 and has
substantial Head Room of about 30-35% in the Event of such an Outcome.
A Second Round situation would be tolerable in the Event it is well
behaved and we do not revisit the 2007/2008 Violence Levels.
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 5.54 points to close at 4469.19.
The Nairobi NSE20 is +8.129% this Year and 179 Points below its 27
Month Closing High from Feb 13th.
Kenya Commercial Bank rallied 6.081% to close at 39.25 to set a Fresh
All Time Closing High. Kenya Commercial Bank is +31.932% in 2013.
Diamond Trust Bank set a Fresh All Time High.
National Bank closed at a 5 Year Low.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom closed unchanged at 5.65 but the Weighted Average was 5.69
and signalling a Bias Higher. Safaricom was trading at 5.70 +0.88% at
the Finish Line. Safaricom traded 3.609m shares worth
20.521m.Safaricom had Unserviced Buy Side Interest for 740% more
shares than were traded during the Session, at the Closing Bell.
Safaricom is +11.8811% in 2013 and 2.586% below its August 2010
Closing High of 5.80 reached on the 9th of January.

ScanGroup traded 4th at the Securities Exchange. ScanGroup closed
unchanged at 71.00 and was trading at 71.50 +0.7% at the Closing Bell.
ScanGroup traded 253,400 shares worth 17.991m and will be releasing FY
Earnings this week. ScanGroup is +3.649% in 2013, trades on a Trailing
PE of 27.843 and sits 4.666% below an All Time Closing High of 75.00
reached on February 11th this Year. ScanGroup has been surfing the
Increased Multinational Spend across SSA to good effect.

ScanGroup share price data here +3.649% 2013

Uchumi retreated 1.808% to close at 19.00 and traded 27,700 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank was the most actively traded share at the
Securities Exchange ahead of its FY Earnings Release on Thursday.
Kenya Commercial Bank rallied 6.081% to close at 39.25 which is a
Fresh All Time Closing High. Kenya Commercial Bank traded an Intra Day
and all time Intra Day high of 39.50 +6.756% on the Day. Kenya
Commercial Bank traded 8.445m shares worth 333.022m, which was 55.915%
of the Total Volume traded at the Exchange. Kenya Commercial Bank has
rallied +31.932% in 2013 to this All Time High. Kenya Commercial Bank
trades on a Trailing PE of 10.466 ahead of the FY Earnings Release,
accelerated Q3 2012 PAT +45.665% and trades on a Price to Book of
2.2808. Today was the 3rd busiest Session for KCB in the last 5

Kenya Commercial Bank share price data +31.932% 2013 All Time High


The CEO @JoshuaOigara @KCBGroup

Diamond Trust Bank improved 0.71% to close at 141.00 where 100,700
shares worth 14.198m were traded. Diamond Trust has closed at a Fresh
All Time High and is +22.6086% in 2013.

Diamond Trust Bank share price data here +22.6086% 2013

Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 16.25 and traded 1.774m shares worth
28.854m. Barclays Bank trades on a PE of 10.093 and released FY
Earnings where FY Profit After Tax expanded +7.741%. The Final
Dividend Pay Out of 70 cents a share and worth 4.3076% of Yield is
undergirding the Price.

Standard Chartered closed unchanged at 265.00 and traded 53,700 shares
worth 14.274m. Standard Chartered is +11.32% in 2013 and has corrected
4.676% off a 30 Month Closing High of 278.00 reached on 14th through
18th February. Standard Chartered trades on a Trailing PE of 13.418
and accelerated Q3 PAT +66.622%, hence the Forward looks plain

Standard Chartered share price data here +11.32% 2013


COOP Bank firmed 0.7633% to close at 13.25 and traded 320,000 shares
ahead of its FY Earnings Release this week.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 26.75 and traded 155,400 shares.

Housing Finance rebounded 2.79% to close at 18.40 and traded 54,200 shares.
National Bank slumped 7.262% to close at 16.60 and traded 171,200
shares. National Bank is -3.768% in 2013 and this is a 60 Month low
previously reached on the 19th of December last Year.

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings firmed 2.59% to close at 49.50 and
traded 109,800 shares. Pan Africa Insurance released Strong FY
Earnings. Pan Africa is +22.981% in 2013.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL traded 2nd at the Exchange and eased 0.3571% to close at 279.00
and traded 376,000 shares worth 105.277 following on from yesterdays
Banner Session where EABL traded 3.153m shares. EABL has corrected
11.428% since closing at an All Time High of 315.00 on the 13th of
February and ahead of its H1 Earnings Release. EABL is +5.283% in

EABL share Price data and H1 Earnings Release here +5.283% 2013

A Post H1 Earnings Release  Interview with Devlin Hainsworth EABL

KenGen rebounded 7.407% to close at 11.60 and was trading at its Daily
Limit of 11.85 +9.72% at the Closing Bell. KenGen traded 646,700
shares. KenGen had reacted 7.296% lower over the previous 2 Sessions
after the Announcement that it would issue a 30b Shilling 20 Year
Geothermal backed Bond shook up Equity Holders, unnecessarily in my
opinion. KenGen is +31.181% in 2013.

Kenya Power KPLC which is seeking a Tariff Increase as we speak and
meeting Stiff Resistance from the Private Sector Alliance (Kepsa) and
the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM), who strongly oppose the
intended increment, saying the move would impact negatively on the
competitiveness of Kenya as an investment destination. KPLC is seeking
the nod to implement an upward tariff review that will increase the
prevailing electricity bills for consumers and if
effected, the fixed charge is poised to jump to Sh200 from the current
Sh120 starting next month and further to Sh250 in July. Kenya Power
retreated 1.466% to close at 16.80 and traded 280,900 shares worth
4.73m. The Market had 258% more shares on the Offer than were traded
during the Session. Kenya Power has retreated 1.754% in 2013 and has
retreated 11.811% since the 14th of February. Kenya Power has to put
forward a much more robust Argument and give increased Visibility
around its Operations before a Tariff Hike of this Nature can be

Kenya Power share price data here -1.754% 2013

East African Cables firmed 2.23% to close at 13.75 and traded 135,300
the day after Releasing its FY Earnings where FY PBT increased 62.072%
to 753.243m
FY PAT increased +65.8755% to 522.060m and The Dividend Pay Out was raised 25%.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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February 2013

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