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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 28th of February 2013

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

#Mindspeak 2013 RICH TV

Kenya Inc. Manifestoes, Dreams and Real Life The Star

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3142
Dollar Index 81.52
Japan Yen 92.24
Swiss Franc 0.9294
Pound 1.5164
Aussie 1.0274
India Rupee 53.755
South Korea Won 1082.14
Brazil Real 1.9764
Egypt Pound 6.7423
South Africa Rand 8.8404

For the month, the yen is headed for a 0.6 percent decline against the
dollar. The euro has dropped 3.2 percent.

The yen has fallen 9 percent since the LDP’s Dec. 16 victory in
general elections, and reached 94.77 per dollar on Feb. 25, the
weakest since May 2010. It’s dropped 4.6 percent this year, the worst
performer after the pound among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked
by Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted Indexes. The dollar has risen 2.1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 92.23 Last

The yen has fallen 9 percent since the LDP’s Dec. 16 victory in
general elections, and reached 94.77 per dollar on Feb. 25, the
weakest since May 2010

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominated Asian Development Bank President
Haruhiko Kuroda to be the next Bank of Japan (8301) governor. Kuroda
said in a Feb. 11 interview he favors additional stimulus this year,
and the central bank has “really substantial room for monetary

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3140 Last

Draghi said at an event in Munich late yesterday. “We foresee for next
year an inflation rate which is significantly lower than 2 percent.”

Investors bid for 1.65 times the 4 billion euros of new 10- year bonds
that Italy sold, up from 1.32 times at the previous auction of the
maturity on Jan. 30. The so-called bid-to-cover ratio for the
five-year notes was 1.61, versus 1.3 last month. The 10-year
securities were sold at an average yield of 4.83 percent

“The auction has cleared with strong demand and better- than-expected
yield levels,” said Owen Callan, an analyst at Danske Bank A/S
(DANSKE) in Dublin. There is “very strong demand for the 10 year in
particular, which is encouraging. It shows that fears of a rapid
disintegration of investor sentiment toward Italy may be overstated.”


Stronger than expected Italian Bond Auction was supportive for the Euro.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.508 Last

djfxtrader: Fed Fisher: Viable Option For Fed To Hold Bonds To Maturity

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Crude Oil 1 Month Chart INO 93.05 Last

WTI for April delivery gained as much as 42 cents to $93.18 a barrel
in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at
$93.13 at 12:52 p.m. Sydney time. The contract rose 13 cents to $92.76
yesterday, the highest close since Feb. 25. Prices are down 4.5
percent this month.


I think its a Buy just a little lower than here.

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1597.83 Last

Gold Heads for Worst Monthly Run Since 1997 Bloomberg

Spot gold was little changed at $1,598.76 an ounce at 11:44 a.m. in
Singapore, down 3.9 percent in February. The metal reached $1,555.55
on Feb. 21, the lowest price since July

 Assets in bullion-backed exchange-traded products slumped to a
five-month low of 2,508.53 tons yesterday and are poised to drop 4
percent this month, the biggest fall since April 2008. In volume
terms, global holdings have dropped by 103.7 tons this month, more
than five times the net sales in January.

Gold for April delivery rose 0.1 percent to $1,597.90 an ounce on the
Comex in New York. Gold rallied for 12 years through 2012 as investors
sought a hedge against falling equities, weakening currencies and
potential inflation. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities has
risen 4.2 percent this year and the Standard & Poor’s Index is near a

Gold is having a “troubling loss of momentum” and is no longer a
buy-and-hold asset, according to Davis Hall

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"In the World But Don't Know the World," a 2009 aluminum bottle-top hanging by Ghanaian artist El Anatsui via Bloomberg

El Anatsui has run away to the Upside and I wish I had stepped up and
snaffled something.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 8.8358 Last

Workers Adding to Egyptian Chaos as Strike Wave Disrupts Economy Bloomberg

For 16 days earlier this month, not a single shipping container moved
into or out of Egypt’s principal port for Asian trade.

Laborers at Ain Sukhna, on the Suez Canal east of Cairo, were busy
protesting management’s plans to continue using short- term employment
contracts. The roughly 1,200 striking dock workers, who slept each
night in empty containers while campaigning for permanent jobs with
port operator DP World Ltd. (DPW), hung a white banner reading “Our
one demand is to be hired,” alongside a large Egyptian flag.

The standoff, which ended Feb. 17 when the government agreed to give
the strikers jobs with a new state-controlled port company, showcased
workers’ growing activism two years after the overthrow of President
Hosni Mubarak. More than 1,000 independent unions are colliding with
an Islamist government that has been unable to arrest the economy’s
deterioration and is pushing to prevent the rise of alternative
political forces.

“The government’s ability to control workers ended with Mubarak,” said
Mohammed Abdeen, 36, general coordinator of legislation for the
Egyptian Federation of Independent Trade Unions (EFITU) in Cairo. “It
doesn’t exist anymore. You can’t control them.”

Since the 2011 revolution, Egyptian workers have launched more than
3,000 strikes or demonstrations over wages, working conditions and
political demands, Abdeen said. Ceramics workers, police officers,
teachers, municipal tax collectors and doctors all have walked off
their jobs in recent months, even though the government doesn’t
recognize their unions as legal.

As Egypt averaged 7 percent annual growth in the three years before
the 2008 financial crisis, the promise of a compliant state union and
low wages was instrumental in attracting investors from the U.S.,
Europe and the Persian Gulf. Foreign direct investment soared to more
than $13 billion in 2008 from $2 billion four years earlier.

With Egypt now trapped in a protracted transition from dictatorship to
democracy, foreign investment has evaporated. The prospect of
continuing protests and work stoppages represents “significant
deterrents for potential investors,” concluded a Feb. 8 report by
Maplecroft, a risk-management firm based in Bath, U.K.

In the months ahead, transport strikes with “the potential to cause
considerable disruption to business operations and supply chains” are
likely, the report added.

Magdi Tolba, chairman of clothing maker Cairo Cotton Center, frets
over a “breakdown of discipline” in Egyptian factories as endless
political debates distract workers from their assembly lines. “Someone
has to go and say: ’enough is enough,’” he said. “The economy is

Labor unrest is just one element of the country’s broader disorder.
From the capital to Suez Canal ports, Egypt in recent weeks has come
close to unraveling. Protests are a routine occurrence in Cairo’s
iconic Tahrir Square where a burned-out police van symbolizes
authority defied. Lawlessness even touched Central Bank Governor
Hisham Ramez, when five armed gunmen on Feb. 13 stole his official car
en route to collect him for work, killing one of his bodyguards.

On November 25, three days after declaring his actions beyond judicial
review, Mursi moved to seize control of the state-sanctioned Egyptian
Trade Union Federation (ETUF), the only legal outlet for worker
representation. A presidential decree forced more than half of ETUF’s
executive board into retirement and replaced them with Brotherhood

Labor activists describe the move as part of a broader campaign to
“Brotherhood-ize” all Egyptian institutions. By taking over the
wealthy state union, Mursi can attract workers to its docile ranks
with benefits such as subsidized vacations, said Ahmed Borai, the
former manpower minister.

“The Brotherhood still thinks in the same way Mubarak did and the same
way Mubarak’s predecessors did,” said Kamal Abbas, head of the
non-governmental Center for Trade Union and Worker Services in Helwan.
“Their approach is to dominate the unions.”

The new constitution describes strikes as “aggression against the
right to work” and treats them as criminal acts. In September, a court
in Alexandria sentenced five union leaders to three years in prison
for leading a strike at the Alexandria Port Containers Co., the
harshest term for union activists since Anwar Sadat’s 1970-81
government, according to Joel Beinin, professor of Middle East history
at Stanford University near Palo Alto, California.

With unemployment at 13 percent -- compared with less than 9 percent
before the revolution -- and inflation rising, Egyptians are growing
poorer. In September, 86 percent of households surveyed reported
insufficient funds for food, shelter, and clothing, up from 74 percent
in June, according to the Egyptian Food Observatory, a joint project
of the government and the World Food Program.

“The Muslim Brotherhood’s policies will impoverish the Egyptian people
even more,” said EFITU’s Abdeen, adding: “Egyptian workers won’t go
back. They won’t retreat.”


The Trajectory continues to steepen and in the Wrong Direction and I
do not see How it inflects, I am afraid.

The North of the #African Continent #Egypt from the Sky Twitpic

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.7391 Last [Been
hanging at this Level for a while but it goes to 7.00]


read more

Foreign Affairs ministry PS seized Nation
Kenyan Economy

Foreign Affairs PS Thuita Mwangi was on Wednesday night taken into
custody by anti-corruption agency detectives.

Mr Mwangi was picked up from his office on Harambee Avenue and taken
to Integrity Centre for questioning over claims of abuse of office.

Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission vice-chairperson Irene Keino
said Mr Mwangi will be charged with four counts of abuse of office
relating to the Tokyo Embassy scandal and other issues in the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs.

read more

Election violence anxiety puts brakes on Kenya's tourism hopes Reuters
Kenyan Economy

Many beaches on Kenya's sun-kissed Mombasa coast are empty and resorts
are half-full on fears that the violence that ripped through the East
African country after its last election in 2007 will erupt again when
it votes on Monday.

Swedish nuclear-engineer-turned-sun-worshipper Patrik Kilstam said at
a resort in Mombasa he will be long gone by the time the first ballot
is cast.

"We planned our holiday intentionally to ensure we are out of Kenya
before March," said Kilstam, 43, in the country for the first time on
a two-week holiday with his wife and daughter.

Although 2012 earnings have yet to be reported, the sector has made a
steady recovery despite a spate of Islamist grenade attacks and the
euro zone crisis. Tourism, which raked in $1.2 billion in 2011,
accounts for 14 percent of GDP.

"They (tourists) are saying forget it. I can do Kenya next year," said
Mahmud Jan Mohamed, chief executive officer of TPS Eastern Africa
TPS.NR, the largest hotel group in eastern and southern Africa.

"We are anticipating recovery from April going into the high season,
but should the elections go to the second round, tourism might pick up
in July thus missing out on any gains in the first half of the year,"
said KTB chief executive Muriithi Ndegwa.

"We are operating at average bed occupancy of between 35 and 50
percent, down from 90 percent. December to March is high season for
us," said Mohammed Hersi, general manager at Whitesands hotel,
Mombasa's biggest resort.

For 60-year-old Hilda Markela, a Dutch tourist on her fourth visit to
Kenya, it was still an attractive destination, however.

"This noise about Kenya being unsafe is uncalled for," Markela, on a
month-long holiday, said strolling on the beach.

"I am here until mid-March. I won't go anywhere. You will came back
here after those elections and find me just as safe."


I predict a Strong H2 Rebound.

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The Palm Trees and The Beach Diani Kenya Twitpic
Tourism, Travel & Transport

Papa Remo Beach #Watamu Twitpic

Vipingo Beach pristine and not another Soul in sight #Kenya Twitpic


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ScanGroup reports FY PBT -14.455%Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           71.50
Total Shares Issued:          284789000.00
Market Capitalization:        20,362,413,500
EPS:             2.21
PE:                 32.353

The largest marketing services company in East Africa.

FY Earnings Through 31st Dec 2012 versus 12 Months through December 2011
FY Billings 13.056890b versus 11.763664b +10.99%
Direct Costs [8.825055b] versus [8.166404b] +8.06537%
Revenue 4.231835b versus 3.597260b +17.6405%
Admin and Operating Expenses [3.291430b] versus [2.530104b] +30.09%
Interest and Investment Income 166.133m versus 139.916m
FY PBT 1.095060b versus 1.280100b -14.455%
FY PAT 752.008m versus 911.116m -17.462%
FY EPS 2.21 versus 2.55 -13.333%
Final Dividend of 60cents a share

Company Commentary
Operating Profit for the Year impacted by
A] The Start Up of new Operations namely Millward Brown Nigeria [April
2012] and Scanad Nigeria [August 2012]
B] The Full Year Impact of Ghana Operations
The Net Effect is is a Loss of Kes 99.8m
Operating Margins have declined due to Investments in Additional Resources
Investment Income in 2011 included a gain on sale of Infrastructure Bonds 46.1m


Scangroup have expanded into West Africa and expanded Their
Geographical Footprint.
This Expansion has crimped The Earnings however it will accelerate
Earnings in the Medium Term.
ScanGroup's Biggest Shareholder is WPP and is their preferred SSA Vehicle.
I think whilst the PE is now quite rich, WPP will be on the Prowl
ready to add to their Position on any Drawdown.

Swot Analysis H1 2012 versus H1 2011
Billings 5.937662b versus 5.605946b +5.917%
Revenues 2.022494b versus 1.527124b +32.438%
Investment Income 102.447m versus 71.476m
Profit Before Tax 578.417m versus 520.951m +11.030979%
Profit After Tax 406.647m versus 374.546m +8.5706%
Minority Interest 82.226m versus 69.583m +18.169%
Earnings Per Share 1.13 versus 1.07 +5.6074% [versus 2.55 FY which
confirms a typical H2 Skew]


I think ScanGroup will grow at this sort of Trajectory for the next 24
Months. In particular, I think the Next Growth Burst comes from the
SSA Expansion and that Expansion will require some Up Front Spend.
Have a Look at Mindspeak where Bharat set out his regional Road Map.

@BharatThakrar #Mindspeak Twitpic

Follow Your Passion #Mindspeak @BharatThakrar Scangroup Twitpic


@BharatThakrar at #Mindspeak RICH TV

COOP Bank reports FY PAT 2012 +43.735% Earnings here

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           13.35
Total Shares Issued:          4190840000.00
Market Capitalization:        55,947,714,000
EPS:             1.84
PE:                 7.255

FY Earnings through December 2012
Total Assets 200.773298b versus 168.311601b +19.2866%
Total Interest Income 24.627027b versus 16.390715b
Customer Deposits Interest Expense 8.013587b 3.851297b
Total Interest Expense 8.680008b 4.505915b
Net Interest Income 15.947019b versus 11.884801b
Total Non Interest Income 7.812677b versus 6.451051b
Total Operating Income 23.759696b versus 18.335851b
Loan Loss 999.882m versus 709.903m
Staff Costs 6.118728b versus 5.511355b
Other Operating Expenses 4.701362b versus 3.873854b
FY PBT 9.970537b versus 6.362562b +56.7062%
FY PAT 7.707986b versus 5.362602b +43.735%
FY EPS 1.84 versus 1.54 +19.4.085%
Final Dividend 0.50 versus 0.40 +25%


Strong Results. Dividend lifted 25%. PE Ratio of 7.255 means There is
Head Room.

“We have raised a total of Sh19.2 billion from retained earnings and
financiers,” Mr Muriuki said. Business Daily


Kenya Commercial Bank @KCBGroup reports FY Earnings at Midday share
data here share price +29.4117% 2013


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           38.50
Total Shares Issued:          2950170000.00
Market Capitalization:        113,581,545,000
EPS:             3.72
PE:                 10.349

Dr. @OduorMartinO and @JoshuaOigara at #Mindspeak RICH TV

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Kenya Electricity reports H1 PBT +14.0911% Earnings here share Price +39.2045% 2013
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           12.25
Total Shares Issued:          2198361344.00
Market Capitalization:        26,929,926,464
EPS:             1.29
PE:                 9.496

H1 Earnings through December 2012 versus through December 2011
Electricity Revenue 8.432b versus 7.808b +7.99%
Operating Expenses [5.144b] versus [5.125b] +0.37%
Gross Profit 3.288b versus 2.683b
Interest Income 0.429b versus 0.632b
Operating Profit 3.995b versus 3.639b
Finance Costs [1.566b] versus [1.510b]
H1 PBT 2.429b versus 2.129b +14.0911%
Net Profit for the Year 1.659b versus 1.490b +11.3422%
H1 EPS 0.75 versus 0.68 +10.294%

Company Commentary
Cites improved Hydrology
Capacity Expansion in particular via Geothermal


Solid Results.
The Capacity Expansion is feeding through to the Bottom Line for
Equity Holders in a balanced and structured Manner.
There is Headroom in the Price to 15.00+

Full Year through June 2012 versus Full Year through June 2011
Electricity Revenue 15.999b versus 14.389b +11.189%
Operating Expenses [10.266b] versus [10.014b]
Finance Costs Net [2.972b] versus [1.997b] +48.823%
Profit Before Tax 4.045b versus 3.651b +10.791%
Profit After Tax 2.822b versus 2.080b +35.67%
Other Comprehensive Income [0.962b] versus [0.633b]
Earnings Per Share 1.29 versus 0.94 +37.234%
Final Dividend 0.60 versus 0.50 +20%

The company plans to install an additional capacity of 65 megawatts by
2014 from its geothermal fields, it said, adding another plan to
generate an additional 560 MW of geothermal electricity were at an
early stage.

KenGen, has invited parties to submit bids for the development of 560
MW geothermal power plants, the company said on Thursday.

The company said it planned to develop the power plants in phases of
140 MW each at Olkaria within the east African nation's Rift Valley
under a joint venture arrangement in which successful bidders would
build, and later transfer, the facilities back to the firm after 10 to
20 years.

"The successful bidder or consortium would be the majority
shareholder," KenGen said in a call for the bids in the Kenyan
newspaper, the Daily Nation.


I think the Bulk Up is clearly at hand and it was that Risk [around
Execution and finding the Capital] that has now apparently been
mitigated. Therefore, on a PE of 6.4728 and with a Yield of 7.185%, I
reckon the Price heads to 10.00. This is a Cheap Share.

KenGen Geothermal Road Map Twitpic


Geothermal OlKaria IV Kenya Twitpic

Kenya Power KPLC reports H1 PBT +5.0555% Earnings here share Price -1.754% 2013


Par Value:                  20/-
Closing Price:           16.80
Total Shares Issued:          1951467045.00
Market Capitalization:        32,784,646,356
EPS:             2.36
PE:                 7.119

 H1 Earnings through December 2012 versus H1 Earnings through Dec 2011
Revenue 45.725933b versus 51.077507b -10.477%
Electricity Sales 23.260415b versus 22.071664b
Fuel Cost Adjustment 16.541324b versus 23.155668b
Total Operating Expenses 41.303293b versus 47.456036b
Non Fuel Power Purchase Costs 12.183726b versus 10.809599b
Fuel Costs 16.686476b versus 23.871316b
Transmission and Distribution Costs 10.262193b versus 8.826317b
Finance Cost [1.064722b] versus [0.426619b]
H1 PBT 3.576300 versus 3.404198b +5.0555%
H1 PAT 3.097474b versus 2.284183b +35.605%
H1 EPS 1.59 versus 1.17 +35.897%
Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Period [6.654508b]

Further Details via The Report and well worth Drilling into Breakdown
of Gw/h Supply versus Costs very interesting reading



The H1 PAT of +35.605% looks impressive at 1st Glance.
The Issue remains the Forward CAPEX Expenditure which is seriously chunky.
The Proposed Loading onto Consumers is simply not tenable.
KPLC will have to carry much more Debt on the Balance Sheet and smooth
the Capex Cost.

Full Year End June 2012 versus FY End June 2011
Profit Before Tax 8.506b versus 6.254b +36.008%
Profit After Tax 4.617b versus 4.219b +9.43351505%
Earnings Per Share 2.36 versus 2.16 +9.2592%
Dividend 0.50 versus 0.45 Final 0.30 + Interim 0.20 +11.111%
Cash and Cash Equivalents at close of Year 0.8b versus 9.722b


The PE is under 8.00.
The Yield is 2.702%.
It will trade like a Utility and for me I prefer the KenGen Opportunity.

Mumias Sugar reports H1 PBT Loss of 1.580581b issues FY Profits
Warning share Price Unchanged in 2013


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           4.85
Total Shares Issued:          1530000000.00
Market Capitalization:        7,420,500,000
EPS:             1.32
PE:                 3.674

H1 Earnings through December 2012 versus through December 2011
Revenue 5.426043b versus 6.921870b -21.61%
Cost of Sales [5.227224b] versus [4.666144b] +12.0244%
Gross Profit 141.957m versus 2.285283b
Marketing and Distribution Costs [419.732m] versus [224.107m] +87.29%
Administration Expenses [806.266m] versus [602.888m] +33.733%
Finance Costs [458.408m] versus [336.923m]
H1 Profit Before Tax [1.580581b] versus 1.178859b
H1 Profit After Tax [1.106407b] versus 0.825201b
H1 EPS [0.72] versus 0.54
Cash and Cash Equivalents 31st December [2.058867b]

Mumias Sugar has issued a FY Profits Warning.
Cane Shortages arising from declining Yields via Drought Conditions
Cane Poaching by Competitors
Sugar Prices fell 30% over the Period


Very Poor Results.

FY Through June 2012 versus FY through June 2011

Turnover 18.702674b versus 18.812871b
Net Revenue 15.542686b versus 15.795300b -2.00%
Cost of Sales 11.060657b versus 10.342125b +6.947%
Marketing Costs 733.345m versus 1.164570b -37.02%
Admin Expenses 1.567202b versus 1.148570b +36.448%
Other Operating Expenses 825.547m versus 443.073m +86.32%
Profit Before Tax 1.764029b versus 2.646575b -34%
Taxation Credit [Charge] 248.65m versus -713.35m-> This is what has
Bailed out the FY Earnings
Profit After Tax 2.013b versus 1.933b +4.00%
Earnings Per Share 1.32 versus 1.26 +4.76%
Final Dividend 50 cents a share and Unchanged


The Tax Credit bailed out these FY Results. Profit Before Tax was in
fact -34% versus EPS +4.76%

Unga reports H1 2012 Earnings here

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           14.50
Total Shares Issued:          75708872.00
Market Capitalization:        1,097,778,644
EPS:             3.57
PE:                 4.062

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +12.323% 2013


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +9.194%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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February 2013

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