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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 14th of August 2013
 
Morning
Africa

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#Mindspeak 2013 RICH TV
Africa


We serve Breakfast from 0900 am We start at 1000 am.

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Kenya Ready for Take Off via @IMFNews
Africa


A High Level Conference on Kenya’s Economic Successes, Prospects, and
Challenges Nairobi, September 17-18, 2013

Its not often that I have two meals in one day with @BobCollymore Esquire.

I thank Ragnar Gudmundsson of the IMF for Lunch yesterday.

It was a Pleasure catching up with @Bharatthakrar @KoinangeJeff
@Peter_Kenneth @CKFoot and Patrick Quarcoo last night at
@BobCollymore's.

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The Recovery in the West is not a Mirage It Is Real 12-AUG-2013
Africa


I spent the last week in London. Of course, I spent much of my life in
London and  thoroughly enjoyed pacing familiar streets, marvelling at
the order and discipline of the City’s organisation and searching for
the signal of the English language in the noise. I was struck by how
London is in many ways no longer an English City but one made of
immigrants. Of course, the English were displaced from Central London
a long time ago by the world’s uber rich and anyone making a pile
anywhere in the World apparently looks for a bolt hole here. A single
parking place in Central London was sold for $465,000 this week. The
news that our international arrivals building had been burnt to a
cinder was the catalyst for me to spend my day at the BBC at New Bush
house. My visit gave me the chance to take a close up close and
personal look at the Economy and I can report the following:

In my view, the recovery is real and its no mirage. China is a command
economy and this is its strength and its weakness. Its a much more
brittle system than many appreciate.

So how does an investor play this recovery. I think you need to be net
long sterling. I reckon There is an outside chance that UK property,
which is projected to rally 25 per cent over five years achieves that
in 24 to 30 months. I like looking for narratives that are embedded
and entrenched and where I can see an Inflexion Point. The United
Kingdom, Europe and the US have inflected. Watch closely how the
narrative starts  changing.

Macro Thoughts

I am bullish Sterling

Home Thoughts

My Eldest Daughter Aysha delivered some very good GSCE Results. I said to her

''Now Darling Imagine what You could achieve if You stayed awake''

Teenagers have a way about them whose casualness tends to unsettle
their Parents.


Aysha gets up on her Water Skis Lamu Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/2rh40h

“At the exact moment any decision seems to be being made, it's usually
long after the real decision was actually made--like light we see
emitted from stars.”
― Richard Ford, The Lay of the Land

“Because the speed of light is finite, when we look at distant
galaxies we are looking backwards in time''
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/it-all-started-with-a-bang-but-the-universe-may-not-be-expanding-after-all-8759893.html

Writing in Nature News, Jon Cartwright explains: “Because the speed of
light is finite, when we look at distant galaxies we are looking
backwards in time — seeing them as they would have been when they
emitted the light that we observe.

“If all masses were once lower, and had been constantly increasing,
the colours of old galaxies would look redshifted in comparison to
current frequencies, and the amount of redshift would be proportionate
to their distances from Earth.

“Thus, the redshift would make galaxies seem to be receding even if
they were not.”

For Wetterich, the universe still expands rapidly during a temporary
period called inflation, but before this inflation, the big bang no
longer contains a ‘singularity’ where the density of the universe
would be infinite. Instead, Cartwright continues, “the big bang
stretches out in the past over an essentially infinite period of
time".

“The current cosmos could be static or even beginning to contract,” he adds.

Conclusions

Cosmology is a fascinating Subject.

read more


Pro-Morsi protest camps in Cairo being cleared BBC
Law & Politics


The BBC's James Reynolds in Cairo says an armoured bulldozer is
heading towards the sit-in outside the Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque, in the
east of the city.

Police have also cut off side streets and there have been bursts of gunfire.

Muslim Brotherhood TV, which is allied to the ousted president, called
for people to send cars to the sit-ins to take casualties to hospital.

Helicopters can be seen circling overhead with announcements being
made on loudspeakers.

Protesters have been camped outside the mosque, and at Nahda Square to
the west, for the past six weeks.

Conclusions

The Military could not have made their move during Ramadhan or Eid.

The Army must be calculating that Fatigue levels are high.

I think The Army is set to land a decisive Blow and the markets will
react positively, in fact.

Egypt from the Sky 342 days Ago
http://www.twitpic.com/arepmz

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THE ROVING EYE Bandar Bush, 'liberator' of Syria Pepe Escobar
Law & Politics


Talk about The Comeback Spy. Prince Bandar bin Sultan, aka Bandar Bush
(for Dubya he was like family), spectacularly resurfaced after one
year in speculation-drenched limbo (was he or was he not dead,
following an assassination attempt in July 2012). And he was back in
the limelight no less than in a face-to-face with Russian President
Vladimir Putin.  The four-hour meeting between Bandar Bush and Vlad
the Hammer by now has acquired mythic status. Essentially, according
to diplomatic leaks, Bandar asked Vlad to drop Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad and forget about blocking a possible UN Security Council
resolution on a no-fly zone (as if Moscow would ever allow a replay of
UN resolution 1973 against Libya). In return the House of Saud would
buy loads of Russian weapons.  Vlad, predictably, was not impressed.
Not even when Bandar brazenly insisted that whatever form a post-Assad
situation would take, the Saudis will be "completely" in control. Vlad
- and Russian intelligence - already knew it. But then Bandar went
over the top, promising that Saudi Arabia would not allow any Gulf
Cooperation Council member country - as in Qatar - to invest in
Pipelineistan across Syria to sell natural gas to Europe and thus
damage Russian - as in Gazprom's - interests.

When Bandar saw he was going nowhere, he reverted to his fallback
position; the only way out in Syria is war - and Moscow should forget
about the perennially postponed Geneva II peace conference because the
"rebels" will be a no show.

Once again, Vlad did not need a reminder that the Saudis - in
"cooperation" with Washington - have now taken over the "rebel"
galaxy. Qatar has been confined to a (expensive) dustbin, as Vijay
Prashad alludes to here. This is part of Washington's plan - if there
is one - to isolate the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and its shady jihadi
ramifications/connections.

Wily Bandar, for his part, is not a fool to believe his own
propaganda; he knows Moscow has more complex geostrategic interests
other than just keeping Syria as a weapons client. And he might have
suspected that Moscow simply does not bother with Gulf competition in
Pipelineistan targeting European markets.

What Vlad does fear is a potential post-Assad utter chaos, to be fully
exploited by Salafi-jihadis. It's never enough to remember that from
Aleppo to Grozny it's roughly 900 kilometers. The next stop for the
Global Jihad in Syria would be the Caucasus. And that's where Bandar
Bush and Vlad the Hammer might converge; their mutual strategic
interest is to reign in jihadis - although Bandar, in fact, is also
weaponizing them.

Moscow won't drop Damascus. Period. At the same time, as Bandar
threatened, Geneva II seems more unlikely to happen than the Obama
administration ceasing to drone Yemen to death.

As Asia Times Online has extensively reported, the name of the game,
in practice, remains Syria as the new Afghanistan, with the House of
Saud in control of all aspects of jihad (with Washington "leading from
behind"). Deadly historic irony also applies; instead of clashing with
the Soviet Union, now the Saudis clash with the Russian federation.
Bandar is simultaneously the new Weaponizer-in-Chief, as well as
Liberator-in-Chief of Syria. The Comeback Spy is not accounting for
future, inevitable, ghastly blowback; what's alarming is that the
Obama administration is right behind him.

Bandar Bush's visit to Moscow simply could not have happened without a
green light from Washington. So what's the (muddled) master plan? The
Obama administration seems to believe in a remixed Sykes-Picot -
almost a century after the original. The problem is they are clueless
on how to configure the new zones of influence. Meanwhile, they're
letting the Saudis do the heavy lifting. The first step was to
eliminate Qatar from the picture. It's astonishing how fast the
emirate, up to two months ago a prospective mini-superpower, now has
been reduced to less than an afterthought.

Yet Bandar by now may have seen the writing on the (bloody) wall;
Bashar al-Assad will be in power until the 2014 elections in Syria,
and may even win those elections. The Saudis might accept a form of
compensation in Lebanon, with their protege, the cosmically
incompetent Saad al-Hariri, back in power in a coalition government
including the political branch of Hezbollah - not the other one which
the European poodles branded "terrorist". This also seems unlikely.

So what is Bandar the Liberator to do? Well, he can always direct his
private jet to Dallas and liberate his sorrows in a sea of single
malt, provided by the House of Dubya.

Conclusions

Bandar was self evidently an Interlocutor for both Riyadh and Washington.

The Nature of the Bargain offered is interesting in itself.

Putin has played his Hand with Finesse and to good effect and has re
asserted the Notion that Russia is a Power that can be relied on and
even in a tight Spot.

read more






Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3271
Dollar Index 81.74 +1% in the past three sessions
Japan Yen 98.33 The dollar touched 98.43 yen, the highest since Aug. 6
Swiss Franc 0.9346
Pound 1.5442
Aussie 0.9094
India Rupee 61.517
South Korea Won 1118.60
Brazil Real 2.3133 4 Year Lows
Egypt Pound 6.9907
South Africa Rand 9.9998

The dollar has risen 4.1 percent in the past six months, the biggest
gain among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro has strengthened 3.3 percent in
the same period while the yen slid 2.3 percent.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.74
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Retail sales rose in July for a fourth consecutive month, showing
American households are regaining momentum as employment climbs. The
0.2 percent increase in purchases followed a 0.6 percent June gain
that was larger than previously reported, Commerce Department figures
showed today in Washington.

“The U.S. economic recovery is on track and the market is pricing in a
tapering of asset purchases in September,”

Conclusions

Bernanke did a good Job of spiking the Dollar Rally.

However, his Intervention's Returns have now diminished and the Dollar
is set to resume its Advance.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3271
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


French Economy Posts Best Quarter Since Hollande Took Power Bloomberg
International Trade


The French economy posted its best quarterly expansion since President
Francois Hollandecame to power in May 2012 as export demand lifted
factory output.

Gross domestic product grew 0.5 percent in the three months through
June, after shrinking in the two previous quarters, national
statistics office Insee said in an e-mailed statement today in Paris.
The median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was a 0.2
percent expansion.

So with industrial production up 1.4 percent in the second quarter and
business confidence at a 15-month high, Hollande has jumped on the
prospect of good news.

“The economy is starting to show favorable signs,” he said Aug. 8.
Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici followed up three days later, saying
“growth is taking root” and declaring the nation’s recession over.

Conclusions


The Recovery in the West is not a Mirage It Is Real 12-AUG-2013

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1208.pdf

Germany Gross domestic product rose 0.7 percent from the first
quarter, when it stagnated, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden
said today

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/german-economy-grows-more-than-forecast-as-recovery-gains-pace.html

read more


Sterling 3 Month Chart INO 1.5442
World Currencies


As I said Look to get long Sterling and sell some Puts at 1.4000.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 98.33
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

I think the Dollar yen heads to a 105-110 Range.

read more



Video footage shows the extent of the fire in Mumbai after the explosion on board INS Sindhurakshak. Photograph: Reuters
Emerging Markets


A Russian-built submarine of the Indian navy has exploded in Mumbai
harbour, with 18 sailors believed to be trapped inside.

India Rupee 1 Year Chart INO 61.53 [The currency plunged to a
record 61.805 on Aug. 6]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDINR&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

The rupee fell 0.5 percent to 61.4750 per dollar as of 9:44 a.m. in
Mumbai, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg.
The currency, which plunged to a record 61.805 on Aug. 6, touched
61.54 earlier.

Global funds have cut holdings of Indian debt by $10 billion since May
22 when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke first signaled the
U.S. may reduce bond purchases this year.

Conclusions

Its a Catch-22 and the Currency targets 65.00.

Brazil Real 1 Year Chart INO 2.3133
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDBRL&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

Conclusions

Deja Vu

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10-JUN-2013 :: The Canary in the Coal Mine
Emerging Markets


In 1994, Alan Greenspan raised US interest rates a quarter point and
global markets went into a tailspin and there was a bloodbath in fixed
income markets. I remember it as if it were yesterday.

Bond yields, high beta currencies like the South African Rand, the
Australian Dollar, the Rupee and the Real are all at multi-year lows
and we are on the cusp of some violent moves.

Frontier Markets

read more


Massmart Holdings (MSMJ.J), the South African unit of Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N), said on Tuesday its first-half earnings rose by as much as 57 percent, lifted by favorable exchange rates.
Africa


Massmart said in a statement it expected headline earnings of between
218 and 234 cents per share for the 26 weeks to June 23, compared with
148.9 cents a year earlier.

Headline EPS, the main measure of profit in South Africa, excludes
certain one-time items.

However, Massmart said that before adjusting for currencies, earnings
would be as much as 15 percent lower than the previous year's
currency-adjusted 200.6 cents.

Massmart, which earns about 7 percent of its annual revenue outside of
South Africa, said it would give greater details about the results
when it releases interim earnings on August 22.

Zimbabwe's Mugabe plans 'final phase' of black ownership plan

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/13/us-zimbabwe-election-idUSBRE97C0IS20130813

"Now that the people of Zimbabwe have granted us a resounding mandate
in the governance of the country, we will do everything in our power
to ensure that our objective of total indigenization, empowerment,
development and employment is realized," Mugabe told the rally of both
civilians and soldiers.

"This is our final phase of implementing the ideals of the liberation
struggle," he added, without offering more details.

His pledge of more forceful application of a nationalist agenda
offered little comfort to foreign investors, who have been hoping
Zimbabwe can build on a fragile economic recovery seen under a unity
government since 2009 made up of Mugabe's ZANU-PF party and
Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.77% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.0030

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9901 [remarkably steady]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +5.76% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +37.67% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +65.32% 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Mozambique cuts rates again as inflation undershoots target range
http://www.centralbanking.com/central-banking/news/2288642/mozambique-cuts-rates-again-as-inflation-undershoots-target-range

The Mozambican authorities told the IMF that monetary policy in the
country would "aim to sustain economic growth while maintaining
macroeconomic stability", aiming at increasing reserve money "slightly
above nominal GDP growth to support financial deepening and the
provision of credit to the economy, while maintaining inflation at
5–6% in the medium term".

Inflation has now fallen to an annual rate of 4.58%, below the target
range. At the same time, the latest indicator of economic sentiment
fell slightly, after rising for the previous three months.

The Bank of Mozambique's benchmark lending interest rate has therefore
been cut 25bp to 8.75%, and the deposit rate by the same amount to
1.50%. The central bank will also intervene in the interbank lending
markets in a bid to increase the monetary base to 43.82 billion
meticais ($1.47 billion), up from a target of 42.36 billion meticais
at its July meeting.

The President of the Republic of Mozambique, Armando Guebuza, and
Eni’s CEO, Paolo Scaroni, met Tuesday in Changara, mineral district of
Tete Province in western Mozambique, to discuss Eni’s ongoing
activities and projects in the country.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/13082013-enis-paolo-scaroni-meets-president-armando-guebuza-in-mozambique/

During the meeting, Paolo Scaroni, along with Claudio Descalzi, COO of
Eni E&P, updated the President of the Republic on the progress of
ongoing strategic projects . The tax agreement with the Mozambican
authorities relating to the sale of 28.57% of Eni East Africa’s shares
to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) was also announced. The
agreement enables the payment, as at August 23rd , of 400 million U.S.
dollars and the construction of a 75 MW power plant in Cabo Delgado
province.

During the visit, Eni’s sustainability initiatives in Mozambique were
also discussed. Eni’s support of Mozambique’s infrastructure
development, including the reconstruction of the coastal road between
Palma and Pemba, along with training, childcare, health and maternity
initiatives were also discussed .

Eni is the operator of Area 4 with a 50% participating interest. The
other partners of the joint venture are CNPC (20%), GalpEnergia (10%),
KOGAS (10%) and ENH (10%).

The Man from ENI #BestofItalyinKenya East Africa is a new Frontier for
Oil and Gas

http://www.twitpic.com/bdcmck

Mozambique army attacks Renamo guerrilla camp Reuters

http://news.yahoo.com/mozambique-army-attacks-renamo-guerrilla-camp-181528410.html

MAPUTO (Reuters) - Mozambican government forces attacked a guerrilla
camp of the Renamo opposition group in a flareup of violence ahead of
local and presidential elections between former foes from the
country's devastating 17-year civil war. Sporadic bloodshed this year
has raised fears that Mozambique, one of Africa's fastest-growing
economies with major foreign investors developing its huge coal and
natural gas deposits, could slip back into open conflict. The latest
clash occurred at the weekend in the Muxungue district of Sofala
province, scene of other confrontations this year between armed
supporters of Renamo chief Afonso Dhlakama and the security forces of
the Frelimo government. Dhlakama has demanded reforms, including
changes to an electoral system he calls biased, from President Armando
Guebuza. Local elections are to held in November with a presidential
vote due in 2014 in the former Portuguese colony.

Interior Ministry spokesman Pedro Cossa told reporters in Maputo that
one soldier was killed and another injured in the weekend assault on
the Renamo camp at Pandje. Cossa said he had no information about
Renamo casualties.

Renamo spokesman Fernando Mazanga put the government death toll at 26
and said the guerrillas had suffered no losses. He added that 37
soldiers and police were wounded.

No independent witnesses were available to reconcile the conflicting claims.

Big investors include Italy's ENI group, which said on Tuesday it had
agreed to pay $400 million tax on the $4.2 billion sale of a
Mozambique gas field stake to China and also build the east African
country a power station.

Renamo raids in April and June in Sofala killed at least 11 soldiers
and police and six civilians, forcing a temporary suspension of some
coal exports to the coast by rail, reducing road traffic and causing
tourist cancellations.

Since 1992, Dhlakama's party has lost successive elections to Frelimo
that he has attributed to fraud. Dhlakama and a group of his guerrilla
veterans in October went back to his former jungle civil war base in
the Gorongosa region. He said he feared for his safety.

Cossa said government forces were trying to restore order in the wide
area around Dhlakama's camp.

Both sides have said they do not want war and have continued to
negotiate over Renamo's demands for a more balanced electoral body and
the integration of its fighters into the army and the police.

Maputo Boom Town 4th June 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/040NSX0406.pdf

read more




Kenya Re reports H1 Earnings here [i am awaiting a better Copy]
Kenyan Economy


Kenya's Naivas aims to sell majority stake to Massmart Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/13/kenya-naivas-idUSL6N0GE1PJ20130813

Naivas Chairman Simon Mukuha told Reuters that his company expects to
sell a stake of 50 percent plus one share.

"They (Massmart) have approached us, the deal is in the pipeline,"
Mukuhu said, adding that the companies had yet to reach common ground
on the price.

A Massmart spokesman was unable to make immediate comment.

Naivas has 28 stores, fewer than than bigger Kenyan rivals Nakumatt
and Uchumi Supermarkets, but Mukuha said it aims to open two more
outlets by the end of the year.

Massmart Holdings Ltd. (MSM), South Africa’s biggest food and
household-goods wholesaler, is interested in a 67 percent stake in
Naivas Supermarkets Ltd., Kenya’s fourth-largest retail chain said

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-13/wal-mart-s-massmart-interested-in-67-stake-in-kenyan-retailer.html

“We have been talking for the last one-and-a-half years,” Naivas
General Manager Francis Maswili said today in a phone interview from
the capital, Nairobi. “Talks broke off some time last year and they
came back around April, but still we could not agree on the valuation
model.”

Conclusions

Wal-Mart is now negotiating its Landing here in East Africa.

Wal-Mart could lead corporate America into Africa By Aly-Khan Satchu
September 28, 2010

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2010/0928/Wal-Mart-could-lead-corporate-America-into-Africa

Pan Africa reports H1 PAT 2013 +266.49% Earnings here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjQ%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           57.50
Total Shares Issued:          96000000.00
Market Capitalization:        5,520,000,000
EPS:             7.27
PE:                 7.909

H1 2013 Earnings through June 2013 versus through June 2012
Net written Premium 1.986470b versus 3.103552b -35.99%
H1 Other Revenue 1.683532b versus 1.217158b
H1 Total Income 3.670002b versus 4.320710b
Net Claims 2.032607b versus 3.360634b -39.517%
H1 PBT 859.562m versus 220.476m
H1 PAT 800.178m versus 218.335m [FY 2012 698.271m] +266.49%
H1 EPS 8.34 versus 2.27 [FY 2012 7.27] +267.4%

Company Commentary

Cites a Fair Value Gain on an Unlisted Investment as being responsible
for the Spike

Conclusions

Startlingly good Numbers. The company has made more money H1 2013 than FY 2012.

FY Results 2012 versus FY 2011
FY PBT 834.646m versus 552.435m +51.084%
FY PAT 698.271m versus 443.405m +57.479%
FY EPS 7.27 versus 4.62 +57.359%
Dividend 3 shillings a share versus 2.00 +50%

Longhorn Publishers buys out Malkiat Singh Business Daily
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate+News/Longhorn+Publishers+buys+out+Malkiat+Singh++/-/539550/1947018/-/y0wdooz/-/index.html

The Nairobi bourse-listed publisher said it concluded the deal last
month and will add the 36 revision books to its stable.

Mr Singh has over the past 30 years evolved into a recognised brand in
Kenya’s textbook publishing with revisions being his strong strength
besides the more than 20 titles approved by the State under the Free
Primary Education textbook (FPE) project.

Longhorn Kenya share price data here +64.77% since 9th July 2013

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NjA%3D

Par Value:
Closing Price:           14.50
Total Shares Issued:          58500000.00
Market Capitalization:        848,250,000
EPS:             -0.38
PE:                 -38.158

Inventories 85.669m versus 275.038m
H1 PBT 24.174m versus [22.465m]
H1 PAT 16.922m versus [22.465m]

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +31.5833% 2013
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +16.38%
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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