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Thursday 22nd of August 2013
 
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19-AUG-2013 ::@UKenyatta rebalances towards China
Africa

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

My job is to have empathy and curiosity for things that I've never
done. Also, I'm a person whom people talk to. Richard Ford

I think once you love somebody, you love somebody; that's just how it
is. Richard Ford

Richard Ford
http://s3.stliq.com/c/l/8/84/24401598_proteggere-il-buono-nelle-cose-disuguali-canada-di-richard-ford-0.jpg

Canada is such a beautiful lyrical elegaic and kind of frightening.

Canada Photobucket
http://i1183.photobucket.com/albums/x462/jkeeten/SaskatchewanPrairieRoads_zps2cbc89b8.jpg

"It was as if they'd discovered something that had once been there but
had gotten hidden or misunderstood or forgotten over time, and they
were charmed by it once more, and by one another. Which seems only
right and expectable for married people. They caught a glimpse of the
person they fell in love with, and who sustained life. For some, that
vision must never dim - as is true of me. But it was odd that our
parents should catch their glimpse, and have frustration, anxiety and
worry pass away like clouds dispersing after a storm, refind their
best selves, but for that glimpse to happen just before landing our
family in ruin."
-- Richard Ford, Canada

I asked @Nishet ''Darling, Do You think we still find those moments?'

And I said to Aysha and Layla, ''The Parents found this Moment just
before they commit a Bank Robbery.''

T. S. Eliot wrote,
"But to what purpose
Disturbing the dust on a bowl of rose-leaves
I do not know."

read more




EGYPT'S DIRTY WAR? POSTED BY JON LEE ANDERSON
Law & Politics


When Salvador Allende, the democratically elected socialist President
of Chile, was overthrown by his country's military--with the awareness,
and possible assistance, of the C.I.A.--on September 11, 1973, he
committed suicide rather than surrender. By then, Chile's Air Force
had already bombed the Presidential palace, where he had decided to
make his last stand. When the smoke cleared, the country's new leader,
the Army commander-in-chief General Augusto Pinochet, told his
fellow-countrymen that he had taken the step of removing Allende from
office on behalf of the fatherland to save it from Marxist terrorists.
"The armed forces of Chile have acted today solely from the patriotic
inspiration of saving the country from tremendous chaos into which it
was being plunged by the Marxist government of Salvador Allende," he
said. In the days, weeks, and months that followed the coup, thousands
of people were hunted down, rounded up, held, tortured, and killed.
Their bodies were hidden by, in many cases, secret executioners, all
in the name of "freedom" and "the fatherland." Three years later,
Argentina's military, taking its cue from Pinochet, overthrew
President Isabel Peron and established a junta to oversee a "national
reorganization process," which it asserted was necessary in order to
safeguard the country from widening social chaos and Marxist-led
"subversion." But El Proceso, as it was called, soon became known as
the "dirty war," in which Argentina's military, like Chile's, used its
powers to detain, torture, execute, and disappear anyone it suspected
of ideological opposition. Between fifteen and thirty thousand people
were killed.

The Soviet Union is long gone, of course; the Latin-American juntas
are also gone, but the region is still dealing with their traumatic
legacy. Left-wing politicians have come to power in most of the Condor
countries, and military officers who once regarded themselves as
patriotic saviors are being tried and sentenced to long prison terms
for the atrocities they committed. As the rule of law emerges, people
in societies that once acquiesced in terror, and even justified it,
are awakening from their slumber.

Today's Islamists can be yesterday's Marxists, it seems: killable on
behalf of notional constructs of law and order. In Egypt, a
self-aggrandizing military that has mostly known defeat in foreign
battle, and has served as an instrument of domestic repression, is
running the show, two and a half years after acceding to an ostensible
"people's revolution" demand to displace the country's (or, rather,
the military) dictator, Hosni Mubarak. Now, only seven weeks after the
military forcibly removed from office the Muslim Brotherhood leader
Mohamed Morsi--who was democratically elected a little more than a year
ago--Mubarak's lawyers have said that he has been acquitted of
corruption charges and may be released from custody as early as this
week.

While Morsi was no Allende, perhaps, he and his political party's
post-coup demonization is a creepily fascinating process to observe;
what is astonishing about it is the rapidity with which it is
occurring. After Spain's bloody civil war, in the nineteen-thirties,
it took several more years of Francisco Franco's terror to convert the
survivors of the former Republic into "bandits" in the popular
imagination. By the fifties, that was the term everyone used.

The no-holds-barred military terror in Egypt, and the language the
military is employing to justify it, is reminiscent of the worst of
human legacies. These are the sort of statements made not by ordinary
armies but by armies that have embraced ideological convictions that
make it easy to shoot down people in the streets, even civilians, if
you believe that they are with the terrorists--or whatever it is you
decide to call them. There are many Egyptians who are going along with
the Army's violence, supporting it with their own paramilitary gangs.
And there are members of the Muslim Brotherhood who are obliging by
discarding the idea that there is a place for them in electoral
politics and embracing violence. Two acts bode ill: Sunday's
suspicious killing of thirty-six protesters detained in a police van,
and Monday's execution murders of twenty-five police cadets in the
Sinai peninsula. (For months, there has been an unravelling security
situation as armed Islamists, not necessarily linked to the Muslim
Brotherhood, grow stronger and launch attacks. Apologists for the
military point to the growing lawlessness in the Sinai, bordering
Israel, as a reason not to cut their aid; but it is worth noting that
most of the lawlessness occurred under that same military's watch,
since it began with Mubarak's ouster, not before it.)

There is a build-it-and-they-will-come quality to Egypt's violence,
and it is it not hard to see how today's mayhem could lead not only to
a Dirty War but to a full-scale civil war. Stoking up a jihad is not
an abstract or elusive thing; there is a jihadist element in Egypt and
across the Middle East, not to mention on the fringes of the Muslim
Brotherhood, and it will ignite and become combustive, given the right
conditions. And this past week Egypt's military has provided those
conditions.

For a time, it was possible to forgive the Obama White House its
indecision, its tepid wait-for-a rational-response approach in
volatile post-Mubarak Egypt. But it is not good enough to cancel the
joint U.S.-Egyptian Bright Star military maneuvers that were scheduled
for September, and to leave in place $1.3 billion in annual military
aid to the regime (almost half of which has yet to be delivered this
year), while withdrawing about a quarter of a billion dollars in
economic aid. If the Egyptian military's violence against its own
citizens is unacceptable, President Obama has no choice but to take
the only moral action that remains available to him: cut military aid
to Egypt entirely. This will not "save" Egypt, but neither will
Egypt's military. If the U.S. has any leverage left, it might be best
applied to the real financial patrons of General Sisi, Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, and the U.A.E. Or have we now truly entered--or returned to--the
age of Kissingerian realpolitik, and actually want the military there
to crack down hard and forever, without any pretenses? If we have lost
the moral cue cards, we can just watch Syria. That's real politics.
But, as the U.S., we must make it clear what we are doing, and why. We
cannot pay for the bullets and then sigh over the victims they kill.

Conclusions

President @BarackObama has turned out to be a very hard-edged
Brzezinski below the radar Guy.

read more


Giraffe Mulling Suicide as 'Terrorists' Chant in Cairo Bloomberg
Law & Politics


"A giraffe, an elephant and a deer are contemplating suicide," reads
an Aug. 18 story in Al Masry Al Youm, a leading independent newspaper,
citing Cairo Zoo psychologists concerned about the impact of gunfire
and chanting by protesters.

"For the first time, the 'street' is willing -- even happy -- to see a
section of the population brutalized," said Ahdaf Soueif, a political
commentator and author of Cairo: My City, Our Revolution. "There are
sane voices speaking against this, and the hope is that these voices
will gain traction over the coming days."

For the past week, state television has constantly broadcast a banner
on the top-left of the screen that reads Egypt Fighting Terrorism. On
the radio, a woman's voice breaks in during commercial breaks, asking
citizens to be wary of "dangerous rumors" and to report suspicious
activity. In press conferences and official statements, government
officials have repeatedly said tanks and guns were necessary to put
down what they describe as terrorism and have criticized foreign
journalists for being sympathetic to the group.

Analysis: Succession, health doubts loom over new Mugabe term in
Zimbabwe Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/21/us-zimbabwe-election-analysis-idUSBRE97K07Y20130821

When Zimbabwe's veteran president Robert Mugabe suavely hosted
journalists at State House on the eve of last month's election, there
was only one question that caught him off guard.

Asked if the presence of Defense Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa by his
side meant that he was his chosen successor, Mugabe paused awkwardly
amid laughter and then delivered an unconvincing reply that Mnangagwa
just dropped by to see him.

Three weeks after Mugabe's re-election in a disputed vote called a
fraud by his main rival but accepted by his African neighbors, there
are no doubts Africa's oldest leader is holding firmly on to the
presidency after 33 years in power.

But the question of whether, at 89, he can serve out all of his new
five-year term - and who will succeed him if he steps down or dies -
will hang uncomfortably over his re-installation as Zimbabwe's head of
state on Thursday.

It will also be crucial for the future of the southern African nation,
which is rich in platinum, gold and diamonds but still emerging from a
decade-long recession brought on by political violence and
government-backed land seizures.

Mugabe faces few immediate threats. Longtime rival Morgan Tsvangirai
has been stunned by the enormity of his defeat in an election he says
was rigged from start to finish; last week he dropped a challenge to
Mugabe's re-election that his Movement for Democratic Change had filed
in the Constitutional Court.

The court confirmed on Tuesday that Mugabe's win was "free, fair and
credible" and had reflected the "will of the people".

Faced with a meek but broad endorsement of the result by African
regional and continental bodies, Western governments must now decide
whether to shun the man they have reviled as a ruthless dictator for
years, or attempt a rapprochement in the interests of practical
diplomacy.

Mugabe's non-committal answer on the succession is typical of a wily
and inscrutable guerrilla politician who fought a liberation war
leading to independence in 1980, crushed a revolt once in power and
has outfoxed rivals in and outside his fractious ZANU-PF party.

Mugabe comes across as feisty and sprightly for his age. He has denied
reports that he has prostate cancer and told reporters he intends to
serve his full new term.

But his advanced years and the persistent questions about his health,
compounded by successive medical check-up visits to Singapore, means
that his endurance in office carries its own cloud of uncertainty for
Zimbabwe's future.

"Mugabe and Tsvangirai have fought their last elections ... one way or
another. Whether it was stolen or not, this was a historic election
that prefigures change," Stephen Chan, Professor of International
Relations at London's School of Oriental and African Studies, told
Reuters.

The United States, a major critic of Mugabe, has made clear it does
not believe his latest re-election was credible and that a loosening
of U.S. sanctions on Zimbabwe "will occur only in the context of
credible, transparent and peaceful reforms that reflect the will of
the Zimbabwean people".

The European Union, which had eased some sanctions, is considering its
own response after expressing concern about alleged irregularities and
lack of transparency in the election.

Adding to Zimbabwe's uncertain outlook is the perception that another
Mugabe term will intensify a succession battle within the ruling
party. ZANU-PF has a history of feuds and splits dating back to its
bush war against white minority rule in what was then Rhodesia.

"Vicious faction-fighting is in the DNA of ZANU-PF," said Stephen
Ellis, a professor at the African Studies Center in Leiden, the
Netherlands.

Defense Minister Mnangagwa, a 66-year-old guerrilla war veteran and
Mugabe's main security enforcer, is widely seen as a succession
contender, along with Vice President Joice Mujuru and State Security
Minister Sydney Sekeramayi.

Mnangagwa, known as "the Crocodile", earned a hardline reputation as
security minister in the 1980s for his role in suppressing rebels in
the western province of Matabeleland. Human rights groups say about
20,000 civilians were killed in the crackdown led by the army's North
Korean-trained Fifth Brigade.

Mnangagwa, Mujuru and Sekeramayi have been members of Mugabe's cabinet
since 1980, and played a major role in ZANU-PF's re-election machine.

During campaigning, Mujuru addressed rallies, Mnangagwa acted as
Mugabe's presidential election agent and Sekeramayi was the ruling
party's point man for the legislative elections in which ZANU-PF was
declared the overwhelming winner.

On the face of it, Mujuru, 58, another liberation war veteran whose
nom de guerre was Teurai Ropa ("Spill the Blood") appears to hold an
advantage in the succession stakes because as first party vice
president she acts for Mugabe when he is away.

But under a new constitution adopted earlier this year, ZANU-PF would
choose a new president if Mugabe stepped down or were to die before
the end of his term. Many fear this could lead to a scramble for power
among ambitious aspirants.

"For all Mugabe's problems, he has been able to keep the peace in
ZANU-PF, and has commanded the authority to keep a potentially chaotic
party organized," Zimbabwean political analyst Eldred Masunungure
said.

"Mugabe's absence could lead to chaos because he has managed the party
in such a manner that nobody else has his kind of unquestionable
authority," he added.

Some party insiders say Mugabe has skillfully played the
Mujuru-Mnangagwa rivalry to strengthen his own position.

Nine years ago, when Mnangagwa appeared headed for election to the
ZANU-PF vice presidency with the backing of six of the country's 10
provincial party structures, Mugabe stepped in to engineer Mujuru's
appointment to the job.

There was speculation at the time that Mugabe penalized Mnangagwa for
his leadership ambitions and that Mujuru's husband, ex-army commander
Solomon Mujuru, had prevailed on the president to promote his wife.

This week, breaking with party tradition that individuals do not
actively promote themselves for leadership, Mujuru attacked party
rivals and presented herself as the moderate leader ZANU-PF needs
after Mugabe, local media reported.

"We know that the president will soon be 90 and God might decide to
call him ... I am best placed to succeed Mugabe if he departs whether
by natural wastage or voluntary retirement," she told a private weekly
newspaper in surprisingly frank comments.

ZANU-PF insiders say Mujuru may have been frustrated by Mugabe's
statement that he plans to serve his full term to 2018.

Far from mellowing his anti-Western and nationalist rhetoric, Mugabe
has told his critics since the election to "go hang" and promised to
increase the pace of "indigenization" policies forcing foreign-owned
firms to sell majority stakes to black Zimbabweans.

John Campbell, an Africa expert at the New York-based Council on
Foreign Relations, said he saw Zimbabwe going into "a holding
pattern", with little prospect of significant economic and political
change until Mugabe disappears from the scene.

"I don't think anything will be settled until he's gone," said Tawana
Shomwe, 35, who sells recharge cards for mobile phones on the streets
of Harare.

Conclusions

I do not see the President going anywhere soon.

President Robert Mugabe
http://theburtonwire.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/robert_mugabe.jpg

President Robert Mugabe to be sworn in as Zimbabwe leader today Independent
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/president-robert-mugabe-to-be-sworn-in-as-zimbabwe-leader-today-8779275.html

Mr Mugabe will be sworn in for a seventh term, after serving 33 years
as head of state.

Mr Mugabe won the election with a landslide 61 per cent of the total
votes against the 34 per cent received by Morgan Tsvangirai's party on
31 July.

read more



Pacific pivot sparks US-China arms race Asia Times
Law & Politics


Asked about the US "rebalance" or "pivot", which involves increased US
military presence in the Asia-Pacific, Chang quoted his president, Xi
Jinping: "The Pacific is wide enough to accommodate the two great
countries, China and the United States. It's always the Chinese
position to welcome the US to play a constructive role in the
Asia-Pacific."

Chang said that while the US rebalancing strategy is a comprehensive
one, he hopes it will not target China or stand against China's
affairs in the region.

The US and China have the world's highest defense budgets, running up
to US$682 and $166 billion in 2012, respectively, according to the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

China has invested in a range of anti-ship, land attack, and ballistic
missiles, as well as counter-space weapons and military cyberspace
"capabilities", according to a 2013 US Department of Defense (DOD)
report.

Such actions are part of China's anti-access and area denial, or
"A2/AD", missions. The US is worried that China's A2/AD weapons will
restrict US "freedom of action", by limiting US access to future
"theatres of conflict", as well as US movements within that theatre.

To get around A2/AD, the US unveiled a new war tactic known as AirSea
Battle, which evolved from the AirLand Battle concept developed in the
Cold War to counter any "Soviet-backed combined arms attack in
Europe". AirSea Battle's aim "is to develop networked, integrated
forces capable of attack-in-depth to disrupt, destroy and defeat
adversary forces", according to the DOD.

"Conventional arms competition between the US and China is primarily
over US military access to the region," said Glaser. "China is
developing (A2/AD) capabilities that seek to deny the US such access
in a crisis, and the US is determined to sustain access and
operational maneuverability," she said.

Asked for ways to prevent the US and China from entering into a
classic security dilemma and arms race, Shen said: "If the US would
cease to do its pivoting; if the US would cease to build up its
missile defense; if the US would cease its space military program, and
if China would follow suit."

Conclusions

The US has a material Hard Power Advantage over China, This Advantage
is probably past its Apogee and is eroding. Therefore, I feel the US
is serious and will be seeking to press its advantage.

The Snake @Aiww and @BarackObama 's Pivot to Asia which is The
Encirclement of China

http://www.twitpic.com/bdl6zk

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3310
Dollar Index 81.43 most members were "broadly comfortable" with the
plan to trim stimulus this year
Japan Yen 98.47 The dollar is at the strongest level since Aug. 15
Swiss Franc 0.9242
Pound 1.5586
Aussie 0.8997
India Rupee 65.14 India's rupee fell to a record Low 65.56.
South Korea Won 1122.54
Brazil Real 2.4505
Egypt Pound 6.9850
South Africa Rand 10.3493

The dollar appreciated 5 percent this year, the best performer after
the euro of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro advanced 6.5 percent, while the
yen fell 8.7 percent.

read more


The Department of the Treasury #Washington QE and the Money Printing Gig
International Trade


"Almost all participants confirmed that they were broadly comfortable"
with the Federal Open Market Committee moderating "the pace of its
securities purchases later this year," according to the minutes of the
central bank's July 30-31 meeting released yesterday.

The FOMC will probably reduce its monthly purchases of $85 billion in
bonds at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, according to 65 percent economists
in an Aug. 9-13 Bloomberg survey. The median estimate is a cut to $75
billion each month.

Conclusions

Its all about when this Department will take its Foot off the Pedal
and by how much.

read more


Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.43 [I am a Bull]
World Currencies


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3310
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

An index of euro-area services based on a survey of purchasing
managers rose to 51 this month from 49.8 in July, London-based Markit
Economics said. A composite index of services and manufacturing
climbed to 51.7 from 50.5. Readings above 50 indicates expansion.
Conclusions

12-AUG-2013  ::The Recovery in the West is not a Mirage It Is Real
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1208.pdf

Australia Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 0.8994 [I look for 0.8000]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_AUDUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more



India Rupee 1 month Chart INO [-> 65.075 <-]
Emerging Markets


"Some of the reasons for the rupee's fall are out of India's control,
which is probably why policy makers have stepped back a bit and let
the rupee find it's own equilibrium"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-22/india-rupee-drops-to-record-as-fed-minutes-signal-stimulus-taper.html

"Some of the reasons for the rupee's fall are out of India's control,
which is probably why policy makers have stepped back a bit and let
the rupee find it's own equilibrium," said Jonathan Cavenagh, a
strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) in Singapore. "The
longer-term issue is that India needs to suppress its current-account
deficit, and that's something policy makers should focus on by
encouraging exports and investment into key sectors like retail and
infrastructure."

The rupee weakened 1.9 percent to 65.2700 per dollar as of 11:13 a.m.
in Mumbai, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg.
It touched a record low of 65.275 earlier. The central bank probably
sold dollars, according to two traders with knowledge of the matter,
who asked not to be named as the information isn't public. The rupee
could drop further to 68 or even 70 by next week, Westpac predicts.


Frontier Markets

read more



VTB Halts Mozambique Sovereign Debt Plan After Clashes Bloomberg
Africa


Rebel clashes with government forces in Mozambique has prompted VTB
Group, Russia's second-largest bank, to halt a proposed sovereign debt
transaction in the country.

Rebels tied to the opposition Mozambique National Resistance party,
known as Renamo, said they killed 36 soldiers in a clash earlier this
month, a claim refuted by the government, which said only two people
died. Renamo, which fought a 15-year civil war against the ruling
Frelimo party until 1992, this year attacked arms depots and buses in
central Mozambique, forcing the closure of rail lines used by coal
mines owned by Rio Tinto Plc. (RIO)

"The situation has changed. In past years there was like a silent
agreement" between Renamo and Frelimo, Amilcar Barros, a director of
VTB's African unit, said in an interview yesterday in his offices in
Luanda, Angola's capital. "The political risks have increased
significantly. I think there's a lot of people reconsidering."

VTB, which is based in Moscow, was considering a transaction with the
government tied to infrastructure development in Mozambique, site of
the world's largest discovery of natural gas in the past decade,
Barros said, declining to be more specific.

The bank, which bases its African operation in Angola, Africa's
largest crude oil producer behind Nigeria, is considering oil and gas
investment in both nations as well as Uganda, Barros said. A ports
project in Namibia was also assessed.

A hydroelectric dam project on the Kwanza River in Angola is being
evaluated as well as companies in the country that are transforming
from importers to light industrial producers, he said.

"Made in Angola is now a slogan," Igor Skvortsov, Chairman of VTB's
African unit, said in the same interview. Angola is "attractive
because now we have transparent rules of investment regulated by
government, the central bank and the foreign investment agency, Anip.
It's not easy, but it's absolutely doable."

VTB is looking to conclude a transaction with the Angolan government
similar to the $1 billion line of credit issued a year ago, Skvortsov
said, declining to be more specific because negotiations are at an
early stage.

The company is considering corporate bond opportunities in the nation
as early as next year in industries such as oil and gas and
telecommunications, Barros said.

Consolidation will occur among Angola's banks over the next five to 10
years, while VTB is not considering acquisitions, Barros said.

"Twenty-three banks all want to play in the same space," Barros said.
"There's a bit of congestion."

VTB's chief competitors in Angola are South Africa's Standard Bank
Group (SBK) and Banco Angolano de Investimentos, he said.

Conclusions

"The situation has changed. In past years there was like a silent
agreement" between Renamo and Frelimo, Amilcar Barros, a director of
VTB's African unit, said in an interview yesterday in his offices in
Luanda, Angola's capital. "The political risks have increased
significantly. I think there's a lot of people reconsidering."

Samora Machel Praca de Independencia #Maputo

http://www.twitpic.com/9scika

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg +11.42% 2013
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.3658 [If we break 10.45
its 10.85 and then 11.00]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9872 [steady as your
hand was when You were 16]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +1.03% 2013 [Its counterintuitive I know but I
am constructive on this Index]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +33.17% 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +65.34% 2013 [Probably
the Best performing Index in the World in 2013]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

South Africa's Distell earnings up on sub-Saharan drinks demand Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/21/distell-brief-idUSL6N0GM1SK20130821

South African drinks company Distell Group reported a 10 percent
increase in full-year profit on Wednesday, boosted by strong
sub-Saharan sales and a weaker rand currency.

Distell, whose brands include Amarula liqueur, Two Oceans wines and
Savanna cider, said diluted headline earnings totaled 491.4 cents per
share in the year to end-June, from 447.8 cents a year earlier.

Headline EPS, the main measure of profit in South Africa, excludes
some one-time items.

Revenue rose by 12 percent to 15.9 billion rand ($1.6 billion).

While revenue in South Africa decreased by nearly 9 percent, Distell
said revenue in international markets, including Africa, rose by 23
percent, helped in part by the weaker rand currency .

Sub-Saharan markets outside of South Africa contributed nearly 56
percent of foreign revenue, the company said.

South African companies are increasingly looking to fast-growing
African markets to offset sluggish performance at home, where
consumers are hamstrung by high debt levels and sluggish economic
growth.

Shoprite Holdings, Africa's largest grocer, said on Wednesday it would
ramp up its expansion across the continent with 47 new supermarkets,
as its core South African consumer base continues to struggle.

Shares of Distell are up 16 percent this year, outperforming a 9
percent rise in Johannesburg's All-Share index.

Foschini Plans for Expansion Outside Slowing South Africa Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-21/foschini-plans-for-expansion-outside-slowing-south-africa.html

Foschini Group Ltd. (TFG), South Africa's worst performing clothing
retailer this year, said it plans to open 21 new stores in the rest of
the continent by March as consumers in Africa's largest economy
struggle to repay debt. The Cape Town-based company, which owns the
Fabiani and Charles & Keith fashion brands in South Africa, joins
retailers such as Carrefour SA, Shoprite Holdings Ltd., Wal-Mart
Stores Inc.'s Massmart and Truworths International Ltd. expanding in
Africa with a middle class of 300 million people and economy set to
grow three times the pace of the U.S. next year. South Africa's
central bank forecast an expansion of 2 percent for this year, the
slowest since the 2009 recession. Foschini plans to open five or six
new stores in Zambia and four in Ghana, Chief Financial Officer Ronnie
Stein said in an interview yesterday. The retailer will open 42 new
stores in the rest of the continent in fiscal 2015 fiscal and 38 in
2016, he said. It also plans to add to its two recently opened stores
in Nigeria as more shopping centers are built in the nation of more
than 160 million people.

"That will take us to 205 stores by the end of the 2016 year when our
turnover from the rest of Africa will be 1 billion rand ($98
million)," Stein said by phone from Cape Town. "We always start with
two stores in a country. Once we're happy with the environment, the
logistics, the legal side, the tax side, the staffing side, then we
roll out."

South African retail sales rose at the slowest pace in nine months in
June as rising joblessness weighed on spending. The number of South
Africans with impaired credit records rose by 189,000 to 9.53 million
in the first quarter, the National Credit Regulator said in June.
About 40 percent of Foschini's sales in fiscal 2013 were done with
cash, while the balance was done on credit using the retailer's store
cards, it said May 30.

Retailers "all recognize the need to expand outside of South Africa,
because South Africa is becoming increasingly competitive," Roger
Tejwani, a retail analyst at NOAH Capital Markets who has a hold
recommendation on Foschini, said by phone from Cape Town. "It is
becoming over-traded."

Conclusions


Everyone is marching into the SSA Hinterland for Growth.

Swala Oil and Gas (Tanzania) Ltd. is targeting an Oct. 1 debut on the
Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange's Enterprise Growth Market, or EGM
Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-22/swala-energy-will-list-tanzanian-unit-to-fund-expansion-plans.html

Swala began a seismic survey in Tanzania's Kilosa basin, where it has
an exploration license covering about 17,700 square kilometers (6,834
square miles). A similar inspection is planned next month in the
Pangani region, where the company also owns a permit, according to its
website. The East African nation estimates it has 41.7 trillion cubic
feet of recoverable natural gas reserves.

Swala's listing is being managed by Tanzania Securities Ltd., a Dar es
Salaam-based brokerage, which expects to submit listing documents to
the market regulator by the end of this week, CEO Joseph Uiso said in
an interview.

The Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange has 17 listed companies with a total
market value of $8.87 billion, according to bourse data. Swala may
become the first company to list on the EGM.

Zambia Commodities Exchange to Resume Trading by May After Delay Bloomberg
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-21/zambia-commodities-exchange-to-resume-trading-by-may-after-delay

Zamace Ltd., a Zambian commodities exchange, plans to resume trading
by May if the southern African nation's government implements a law by
year-end that has delayed the process, Executive Director Brian Tembo
said.

Zamace, a 15-member bourse set up in 2007, provided a trading platform
for crops such as wheat, soybeans and sunflowers as well as cement and
fertilizer until it suspended operations in mid-2011. Zambia is
southern Africa's biggest corn producer after South Africa and Malawi.

The exchange wanted to restart trade in products including corn and
wheat last year, and had to postpone this until the law needed to
certify commodity warehouses was in place.

"There is massive interest in this," Tembo said yesterday in an
interview in Lusaka, the capital. "Realistically, we are looking at
the next agricultural marketing season, which starts from about April
or May," for trading to resume, he said.

read more



EABL reports FY Earnings tomorrow before the Opening Bell [You can follow Live Tweets from that Earnings Release via @alykhansatchu]
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           305.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774976.00
Market Capitalization:        241,186,367,680
EPS:             13.46
PE:                 22.660

EABL H1 Earnings through December 2012 versus 6 months through 2011
Net Revenue 30.633b versus 27.777b +10.28188%
Cost of Sales [16.234b] versus [14.321b] +13.358%
Gross Profit 14.399b versus 13.456b +7.008%
Selling and Distribution Costs [2.541b] versus [2.311b]
Administration Expenses [3.564b] versus [3.699b]
Other Operating Expenses [0.436b] versus [0.134b]
Profit from Operations 7.858b versus 7.312b +7.467%
Net Finance Costs [2.061b] versus [0.642b] +221%
H1 Profit Before Taxation 5.797b versus 6.670b -13.088455%
H1 Profit After Taxation 3.982b versus 4.877b -18.351445%
H1 Earnings Per Share 4.75 versus 5.55 -14.4144%
Interim Dividend 1.50 per share versus 2.50 Last Time
Cash from Operating Activities 7.424b

Company Commentary
Net Revenue Kenya grew 12%
Uganda Breweries +3%
Serengeti Tanzania +16%
EABLi +28%
Total Beer Portfolio grew 11%
Total Spirits Portfolio grew 9%
Premium Spirits Portfolio +45%
New Beer Brands introduced Balozi and Kibo Gold
Jebel Gin Innovation

read more


NIC Bank reports H1 PBT 2013 +15.374% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           57.50
Total Shares Issued:          542980000.00
Market Capitalization:        31,221,350,000
EPS:             6.03
PE:                 9.536

H1 2013 Earnings versus H1 2012
H1 Loans and Advances to Customers Net 71.006628b versus 62.395414b +13.801%
H1 Total Assets 103.693055b versus 88.693900b +16.911%
H1 Customer Deposits 79.991713b versus 72.719455b
H1 Total Interest Income 5.573025b versus 5.597247b -4.32%
H1 Total Interest Expense 2.141362b versus 3.078387b -30.43%
H1 Net Interest Income 3.431663B versus 2.578890b
H1 Total Non Interest Income 1.613438b versus 1.530566b +5.4144%
Total Operating Income 5.045101b versus 4.049456b
Total Operating Expenses 2.417511b versus 1.772003b +36.428%
H1 PBT 2.627590b versus 2.277453b +15.374%
H1 PAT 1.866729b versus 1.593369b +17.156%
H1 EPS 3.44 versus 2.93 +17.4061%
Interim Dividend 0.25 a share

Conclusions

Predictably robust H1 Earnings. The Operating Expenses Spike at
+36.428% is worth watching going forward.

Its well organised, has a regional presence and is inexpensive on a PE Basis.

Access Kenya reports H1 2013 PAT +61.888% Earnings here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTM%3D

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           9.55
Total Shares Issued:          209880000.00
Market Capitalization:        2,004,354,000
EPS:             0.69
PE:                 13.841

H1 2013 Earnings through June 2013 versus H1 through June 2012
H1 Turnover 1.001105b versus 0.9408626b
H1 Cost of Sales [160.181m] versus [186.384m]
H1 Admin Expenses [455.524m] versus [416.482m]
H1 PBT 161.936m versus 87.88m +84.269%
H1 PAT 110.382m versus 68.184m  +61.888%
H1 EPS 0.51 versus 0.31 +64.516%

Company cites a large reduction in Financing Costs which were down 55%
to 38m from 85m.

Conclusions

The Improvement is around the reduced Financing Burden.

Of course Access Kenya is subject to a 05-JUL-2013  Takeover Offer
from Dimension Data Holdings PLC

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Takeover%20offer%20from%20Dimension_data%20Holdings%20PLC%20timetable%20of%20events.pdf

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +31.678% 2013

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +16.864% 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Official closing Data has not been received as I file this.
Equity Turnover was 628.089m and Kenya Commercial Bank was the most
actively traded share at the Securities Exchange for the 2nd
consecutive session.
The Big Event is the EABL Full Year Earnings release tomorrow morning
at the Serena hotel.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased back 1.24% to close at 7.95 and traded 5.167m shares
worth 41.161m. Safaricom set a Succession of All Time Highs that
climaxed at 8.15 on the 20th of August. Safaricom is +57.425% in 2013
and has corrected 2.45% lower since the 20th and over 2 sessions. My
Price Target is 8.80.

Kenya Airways closed unchanged at 9.40 and was trading at 9.50 +1.06%
at the Closing Bell. Kenya Airways traded 1.085m shares and this
follows yesterday +4.444% Rebound yesterday. Kenya Airways' share
price has simply all the downside baked into it and none of the
Upside.

Access Kenya which is currently suspended and subject to a Take Over
from NTT's Dimension Data reported an H1 2013 PAT Acceleration of
+61.888% and spoke to reduced financing costs as being largely
responsible.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank was the most actively traded share at the
Exchange for the second consecutive session. KCB closed unchanged at
44.75 and +50.42% in 2013 and just 0.555% below a Record Closing High
of 45.00 reached twice this month. Kenya Commercial Bank traded 5.259m
shares worth 236.603m. Kenya Commercial Bank has traded 11.289m shares
over the last 2 sessions. There will be a Restructuring Charge in the
H1 Earnings Release but the market is anticipating strong H1 Earnings,
which are set for release next week.

Equity Bank eased 0.72% to close at 34.50 and traded 2.619m shares
worth 90.36m.

NIC Bank reported H1 2013 Earnings yesterday and after the Closing
Bell. NIC reported an H1 2013 PBT expansion of +15.374%,  H1 EPS
+17.4061%, Interest Income declined -4.32% but H1 Interest Expenses
declined -30.43% over the same period. NIC Bank is well organised and
is an Interesting Investment from both an Organic Growth View and from
a possible Acquisition target. NIC Bank eased 0.87% to close at 57.00
and traded 183,600 shares. Its well supported at this Price Level.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL which will release its keenly anticipated FY Earnings tomorrow
morning at the Serena and before the opening Bell, closed unchanged at
305.00 and was trading at 308.00 +0.98% at the Finish Line and traded
513,200 shares worth 156.53m. EABL has retreated 11.337% since issuing
its FY Profits warning on 30-JUL-2013. I am of the view, the market
has now digested the Fact that FY Earnings have been crimped via the
19.5b Kenya shillings Loan with which EABL bought the 20% stake in
Kenya Breweries it did not hold.  Mr. Charles Ireland confirmed that
the Growth Story remains very much intact via confirming that there
would be Full Year on Full Year Revenue growth. I think the share
price has priced in the Profits Warning and has in fact overshot to
the downside and is overdue a rebound.

GEMS

Home Afrika retreated 9.49% to close at 13.35 and was trading at limit
down of 13.30 -9.83% at the Finish line. Home Afrika traded 110,600
shares. Home Afrika reached a closing Price of 25.00 on the first two
sessions when it was introduced on the 15th of July. Home Afrika has
retreated 46.6% since the 15th of July.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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