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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"Language is a skin: I rub my language against the other. It is as
if I had words instead of fingers, or fingers at the tip of my words.
My language trembles with desire."  -- Roland Barthes
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sw4bG9IA8-g/TqAAoIyYSQI/AAAAAAAAF1s/KnieB0ot4Ho/s640/RolandBarthesSmoking.jpeg

"Every exploration is an appropriation."

"Frontiers are physical as well as symbolic constructions"

"Continuous Pour" Photo Booth
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/photobooth/2013/09/emerging-photographer-sara-cwynar.html#slide_ss_0=7

The process behind this work involves reprinting and scanning found
images and reworking them in the studio, mixing them with new objects
and materials--taking them out of the shared-image world and into a
space for personal, often very obsessive intervention. Most of the
reference images come from a huge personal archive I have of
vernacular, pop-culture images.

I am interested in the steady stream of images that comes at us from
different channels in everyday life, how these have helped to build
and reinforce a shared view of the world. The pictures I have made
are, in a sense, trompe-l'oeils. I am trying to foreground the
experience in which the photo reveals itself to the viewer, where you
unpack what the image is actually showing you. This happens with all
the vernacular photos you see every day, but it happens too quickly to
notice it. In this work, what might appear to be three-dimensional is
flat, what might seem "beautiful" or "sophisticated" is made up of
junk, and what might look old is new. The intention is to confuse the
reading of the picture.

G20 St Petersburg
http://sofiaglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/g20-petersburg-469x272.jpg

And as he looks south from the Kremlin, he can see Chechnya on the
horizon and - just 800 miles further away - Syria itself, where Assad
is fighting rebel forces that include Chechens.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/russias-president-is-unlikely-to-lend-his-support-to-latest-us-crusade-8800974.html

He knows that the US President's "red lines" and "options on the
table" and all the other Obama-isms that are talking the Americans
into yet another war against Arabs, have given him a powerful card. He
knows that the Syrian war is about Iran.

They're involved in Algeria and Angola, Benin and Botswana, Burkina
Faso and Burundi, Cameroon and the Cape Verde Islands. And that's just
the ABCs of the situation. Skip to the end of the alphabet and the
story remains the same: Senegal and the Seychelles, Togo and Tunisia,
Uganda and Zambia. From north to south, east to west, the Horn of
Africa to the Sahel, the heart of the continent to the islands off its
coasts, the U.S. military is at work. Base construction, security
cooperation engagements, training exercises, advisory deployments,
special operations missions, and a growing logistics network, all
undeniable evidence of expansion - except at U.S. Africa Command.To
hear AFRICOM tell it, U.S. military involvement on the continent
ranges from the miniscule to the microscopic. The command is adamant
that it has only a single "military base" in all of Africa: Camp
Lemonnier in Djibouti. The head of the command insists that the U.S.
military maintains a "small footprint" on the continent. AFRICOM's
chief spokesman has consistently minimized the scope of its operations
and the number of facilities it maintains or shares with host nations,
asserting that only "a small presence of personnel who conduct
short-duration engagements" are operating from "several locations" on
the continent at any given time.

Out of public earshot, officers running America's secret wars say:
"Africa is the battlefield of tomorrow, today."
Evidence of an American pivot to Africa is almost everywhere on the
continent. Few, however, have paid much notice.

An investigation by TomDispatch has found recent U.S. military
involvement with no fewer than 49 African nations.

What does the U.S. military footprint in Africa look like? Colonel Tom
Davis, AFRICOM's Director of Public Affairs, is unequivocal: "Other
than our base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, we do not have military
bases in Africa, nor do we have plans to establish any." He admits
only that the U.S. has "temporary facilities elsewhere... that support
much smaller numbers of personnel, usually for a specific activity."

AFRICOM's chief of media engagement Benjamin Benson echoes this,
telling me that it's almost impossible to offer a list of forward
operating bases. "Places that [U.S. forces] might be, the range of
possible locations can get really big, but can provide a really skewed
image of where we are... versus other places where we have ongoing
operations. So, in terms of providing a number, I'd be at a loss of
how to quantify this."

A briefing prepared last year by Captain Rick Cook, the chief of
AFRICOM's Engineering Division, tells a different story, making
reference to forward operating sites or FOSes (long-term locations),
cooperative security locations or CSLs (which troops periodically
rotate in and out of), and contingency locations or CLs (which are
used only during ongoing operations). A separate briefing prepared
last year by Lieutenant Colonel David Knellinger references seven
cooperative security locations across Africa whose whereabouts are
classified. A third briefing, produced in July of 2012 by U.S. Army
Africa, identifies one of the CSL sites as Entebbe, Uganda, a location
from which U.S. contractors have flown secret surveillance missions
using innocuous-looking, white Pilatus PC-12 turboprop airplanes,
according to an investigation by the Washington Post.The 2012 U.S.
Army Africa briefing materials obtained by TomDispatch reference plans
to build six new gates to the Entebbe compound, 11 new "containerized
housing units," new guard stations, new perimeter and security
fencing, enhanced security lighting and new concrete access ramps,
among other improvements. Satellite photos indicate that many, if not
all, of these upgrades have, indeed, taken place.

Another key, if little noticed, U.S. outpost in Africa is located in
Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. An airbase there serves as
the home of a Joint Special Operations Air Detachment, as well as the
Trans-Sahara Short Take-Off and Landing Airlift Support initiative.
According to military documents, that "initiative" supports "high-risk
activities" carried out by elite forces from Joint Special Operations
Task Force-Trans Sahara. Lieutenant Colonel Scott Rawlinson, a
spokesman for Special Operations Command Africa, told me that it
provides "emergency casualty evacuation support to small team
engagements with partner nations throughout the Sahel," although
official documents note that such actions have historically accounted
for only 10% of its monthly flight hours.

Ouagadougou is just one site for expanding U.S. air operations in
Africa. Last year, the 435th Military Construction Flight (MCF) - a
rapid-response mobile construction team - revitalized an airfield in
South Sudan for Special Operations Command Africa, according to the
unit's commander, Air Force lieutenant Alexander Graboski. Before
that, the team also "installed a runway lighting system to enable
24-hour operations" at the outpost. Graboski states that the Air
Force's 435th MCF "has been called upon many times by Special
Operations Command Africa to send small teams to perform work in
austere locations." This trend looks as if it will continue. According
to a briefing prepared earlier this year by Hugh Denny of the Army
Corps of Engineers, plans have been drawn up for Special Operations
Command Africa "operations support" facilities to be situated in
"multiple locations."

AFRICOM spokesman Benjamin Benson refused to answer questions about
SOCAFRICA facilities, and would not comment on the locations of
missions by an elite, quick-response force known as Naval Special
Warfare Unit 10 (NSWU 10). But according to Captain Robert Smith, the
commander of Naval Special Warfare Group Two, NSWU 10 has been engaged
"with strategic countries such as Uganda, Somalia, [and] Nigeria."

Nzara in South Sudan is one of a string of shadowy forward operating
posts on the continent where U.S. Special Operations Forces have been
stationed in recent years. Other sites include Obo and Djema in the
Central Africa Republic and Dungu in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
According to Lieutenant Colonel Guillaume Beaurpere, the commander of
the 3rd Battalion, 10th Special Forces Group, "advisory assistance at
forward outposts was directly responsible for the establishment of
combined operations fusion centers where military commanders, local
security officials, and a host of international and non-governmental
organizations could share information about regional insurgent
activity and coordinate military activities with civil authorities."

Drone bases are also expanding. In February, the U.S. announced the
establishment of a new drone facility in Niger. Later in the spring,
AFRICOM spokesman Benjamin Benson confirmed to TomDispatch that U.S.
air operations conducted from Base Aerienne 101 at Diori Hamani
International Airport in Niamey, Niger's capital, were providing
"support for intelligence collection with French forces conducting
operations in Mali and with other partners in the region." More
recently, the New York Times noted that what began as the deployment
of one Predator drone to Niger had expanded to encompass daily flights
by one of two larger, more advanced Reaper remotely piloted aircraft,
supported by 120 Air Force personnel. Additionally, the U.S. has flown
drones out of the Seychelles Islands and Ethiopia's Arba Minch
Airport.

When it comes to expanding U.S. outposts in Africa, the Navy has also
been active. It maintains a forward operating location - manned mostly
by Seabees, Civil Affairs personnel, and force-protection troops -
known as Camp Gilbert in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia. Since 2004, U.S. troops
have been stationed at a Kenyan naval base known as Camp Simba at
Manda Bay. AFRICOM's Benson portrayed operations there as relatively
minor, typified by "short-term training and engagement activities."
The 60 or so "core" troops stationed there, he said, are also
primarily Civil Affairs, Seabees, and security personnel who take part
in "military-to-military engagements with Kenyan forces and
humanitarian initiatives."

AFRICOM's Benson tells TomDispatch that the U.S. military also makes
use of six buildings located on Kenyan military bases at the airport
and seaport of Mombasa. In addition, he verified that it has used
Léopold Sédar Senghor International Airport in Senegal for refueling
stops as well as the "transportation of teams participating in
security cooperation activities" such as training missions. He
confirmed a similar deal for the use of Addis Ababa Bole International
Airport in Ethiopia.

In addition, U.S. Africa Command has built a sophisticated logistics
system, officially known as the AFRICOM Surface Distribution Network,
but colloquially referred to as the "new spice route." It connects
posts in Manda Bay, Garissa, and Mombasa in Kenya, Kampala and Entebbe
in Uganda, Dire Dawa in Ethiopia, as well as crucial port facilities
used by the Navy's CTF-53 ("Commander, Task Force, Five Three") in
Djibouti, which are collectively referred to as "the port of Djibouti"
by the military. Other key ports on the continent, according to
Lieutenant Colonel Wade Lawrence of U.S. Transportation Command,
include Ghana's Tema and Senegal's Dakar.

When considering the scope and rapid expansion of U.S. military
activities in Africa, it's important to keep in mind that certain key
"African" bases are actually located off the continent. Keeping a
semblance of a "light footprint" there, AFRICOM's headquarters is
located at Kelley Barracks in Stuttgart-Moehringen, Germany. In June,
Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that the base in Stuttgart and the U.S.
Air Force's Air Operations Center in Ramstein were both integral to
drone operations in Africa.While that sum is sizeable, it's surpassed
by spending on the lone official U.S. base on the African continent,
Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti. That former French Foreign Legion post has
been on a decade-long growth spurt.In 2002, the U.S. dispatched
personnel to Africa as part of Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of
Africa (CJTF-HOA). The next year, CJTF-HOA took up residence at Camp
Lemonnier, where it resides to this day. In 2005, the U.S. struck a
five-year land-use agreement with the Djiboutian government and
exercised the first of two five-year renewal options in late 2010. In
2006, the U.S. signed a separate agreement to expand the camp's
boundaries to 500 acres.According to AFRICOM's Benson, between 2009
and 2012, $390 million was spent on construction at Camp Lemonnier. In
recent years, the outpost was transformed by the addition of an
electric power plant, enhanced water storage and treatment facilities,
a dining hall, more facilities for Special Operations Command, and the
expansion of aircraft taxiways and parking aprons.

As Davis told TomDispatch, "We also conduct some type of military
training or military-to-military engagement or activity with nearly
every country on the African continent." A cursory look at just some
of U.S. missions this spring drives home the true extent of the
growing U.S. engagement in Africa.

It's not hard to imagine why the U.S. military wants to maintain that
"small footprint" fiction. On occasion, military commanders couldn't
have been clearer on the subject. "A direct and overt presence of U.S.
forces on the African continent can cause consternation... with our own
partners who take great pride in their post-colonial abilities to
independently secure themselves," wrote Lieutenant Colonel Guillaume
Beaurpere earlier this year in the military trade publication Special
Warfare. Special Operations Forces, he added, "must train to operate
discreetly within these constraints and the cultural norms of the host
nation."

On a visit to the Pentagon earlier this summer, AFRICOM's Rodriguez
echoed the same point in candid comments to Voice of America: "The
history of the African nations, the colonialism, all those things are
what point to the reasons why we should... just use a small footprint."

And yet, however useful that imagery may be to the Pentagon, the U.S.
military no longer has a small footprint in Africa. Even the repeated
claims that U.S. troops conduct only short-term. intermittent missions
there has been officially contradicted. This July, at a change of
command ceremony for Naval Special Warfare Unit 10, a spokesman noted
the creation and implementation of "a five-year engagement strategy
that encompassed the transition from episodic training events to
regionally-focused and persistent engagements in five Special
Operations Command Africa priority countries."

In a question-and-answer piece in Special Warfare earlier this year,
Colonel John Deedrick, the commander of the 10th Special Forces Group,
sounded off about his unit's area of responsibility. "We are widely
employed throughout the continent," he said. "These are not episodic
activities. We are there 365-days-a-year to share the burden, assist
in shaping the environment, and exploit opportunities."

Exploitation and "persistent engagement" are exactly what critics of
U.S. military involvement in Africa have long feared, while blowback
and the unforeseen consequences of U.S. military action on the
continent have already contributed to catastrophic destabilization.

Despite some candid admissions by officers involved in shadowy
operations, however, AFRICOM continues to insist that troop
deployments are highly circumscribed. The command will not, however,
allow independent observers to make their own assessments. Benson said
AFRICOM does not "have a media visit program to regularly host
journalists there."

While Washington talks openly about rebalancing its military assets to
Asia, a pivot to Africa is quietly and unmistakably underway. With the
ever-present possibility ofblowback from shadowy operations on the
continent, the odds are that the results of that pivot will become
increasingly evident, whether or not Americans recognize them as such.
Behind closed doors, the military says: "Africa is the battlefield of
tomorrow, today." It remains to be seen just when they'll say the same
to the American people.

Entebbe Cooperative Security Location, Entebbe, Uganda, in 2009 and
2013 (c)2013 Google (c)2013 Digital Globe

A 2009 image (above left) shows a barebones compound of dirt and grass
tucked away on a Ugandan air base with just a few aircraft surrounding
it. A satellite photo of the compound from earlier this year (above
right) shows a strikingly more built-up camp surrounded by a swarm of
helicopters and white airplanes.

Conclusions

I have said for a While that the Pivot to Asia detours through Africa.
And that the US has a decisive Hard Power Advantage over the African
Continent and that increasingly I see the US deploying its Hard Power
Advantage to tilt the Pitch and staunch the Chinese Advance.

ALY-KHAN SATCHU Wrote: (your comment)

Taking a broader Sweep, it is clear that the United States and
@USAfricaCommand has carved out a much more forward Position on the
African Continent. In some respects, @BarackObama 's Pivot to Asia
detours through Africa. China has made a Parabolic Advance across the
African Continent and one of the 'desired' Side Effects of staunching
the 'Al-Qaeda' Advance is that it also counters the Chinese Advance
via The Insertion of US Hard Power. The US cannot challenge China's
Extreme Dollar Diplomacy but it can insert Hard Power with which it
can tilt the African Pitch.

Now returning to Africa and although @USAfricaCommand was set up under
a Previous President's Watch, I think the Penny dropped [re China's
extraordinary Surge in Africa] only quite recently or in the last 24
months.

Zbigniew Brzezinski [whom I admire and I believe is a Foreign Policy
Eminence Grise and has @BarackObama's Ear] once said that '' the three
grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent collusion and
maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries
pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming
together."

I think the interesting Point is how Africa has now become Front and
Centre of the Geopolitical Global Puzzle and the Collision between US
Hard Power and China's Soft Power

A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia is US/NATO
Power Projection over the Indian Ocean. 19-AUG-2013 @UKenyatta
rebalances towards China
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX1908.pdf

Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why 'The precocity of the
Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange
is one of the glaring facts of history', made possible by the
'reversible escalator' of the monsoon.'

I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China's dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US'
interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of
Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize
in the c21st. [President Kenyatta probably posed the question to
Vladimir Putin, whether Russia felt it had a role to play in this
Energy Great Game in East Africa]. Therefore, the control of the
Indian Ocean becomes kind of decisive and with control China can be
shut down quite quickly. A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's
pivot to Asia is US/NATO Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

Greetings from somewhere on the Indian Ocean
http://www.twitpic.com/7zo8nl

US 10 YEAR YIELD 3 MONTH CHART YAHOO FINANCE 2.98%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=

Euro 1.3130 The dollar was little changed at $1.3131 per euro at 6:50
a.m. in London, having risen 0.7 percent this week.
Dollar Index 82.52 Sell Puts
Japan Yen 99.59 The yen strengthened 0.4 percent to 99.75 per dollar
and was down 1.6 percent on the week
Swiss Franc 0.9434
Pound 1.5608
Aussie 0.9146
India Rupee 65.785 Some short covering but I feel Fundamentals will
reassert and we will see 70.00
South Korea Won 1091.84 The Won is at more than 3 month Highs
Brazil Real 2.3233
Egypt Pound 6.9045 quite a sharp improvement this week
South Africa Rand 10.2066

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 82.52 [Sell 80.00 Puts]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

U.S. Labor Department data will probably show today nonfarm payrolls
rose by 180,000 in August, up from an increase of 162,000 in July,
according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg
News. The unemployment rate is estimated to have held at 7.4 percent,
the lowest since December 2008.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its services index rose
to 58.6, its highest since December 2005, from 56 in July. The reading
handily topped economists' consensus expectations for 55 and beat the
high end of forecasts.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

The report likely added to views that economic growth is strengthening
in the second half of the year, after Tuesday's ISM manufacturing
report showed the sector growing at its fastest pace in 26 months.

The new orders and business activity components hit their highest
level since February 2011. New orders rose to 60.5 from 57.7 and
business activity hit 62.2 after scoring 60.4 in July.

The key employment index hit its highest in six months, up to 57 from 53.2.

The Recovery in the West is not a Mirage It Is Real 12-AUG-2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1208.pdf

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 99.59
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3130 [Draghi has been a
Pussycat of late]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1369.34 [Breaking down again]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 108.27 [looks set to trade through 110.00]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.V13.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Frontier Markets

South Sudan sold around 9.8 million barrels of oil for $969 million
until the start of September, its oil ministry said in a statement. It
had to pay $91 million in fees for using pipelines crossing Sudan and
the Port Sudan port.

An extra $147 million Juba paid as part of a package to compensate
Sudan for the loss of most oil reserves with southern secession, as
agreed in a deal in September. Juba needs to make this monthly
payments to Sudan for more than two years.

South Sudan is producing 180,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) and
plans to add 20,000 bpd after Sudan abandoned its threat to halt
flows, Nicodemus Ajak Bior, the ministry's press officer, told
Reuters.

"Technical teams are meeting and plan to increase the production
starting within the next two weeks," he said. "Preparations are on."

He gave no detailed timeline, saying only that it aimed to have an
output of 250,000 bpd by the end of the year.

South Sudan used to pump 300,000 bpd until it closed all wells in January 2012

Conclusions

The Ambassador from Sudan whom I met last night was unabashedly
bullish about the recent Rapprochement between Bashir and Kiir.
http://l3.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/TojL8V_2nFayOTfyMF7ulw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTUxMjtweW9mZj0wO3E9ODU7dz03Njg-/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/afp.com/photo_1378201590961-5-HD.jpg

This Interview I gave RFI about Sudan applies now

1,324 days ago I was in Juba and I took this Photograph of President
Bashir's Plane.

The VIP Room Juba Airport 1375 days ago
http://www.twitpic.com/rldc6

South Sudan's oil cutoff: brilliant negotiating, or suicide?  January 30, 2012
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2012/0130/South-Sudan-s-oil-cutoff-brilliant-negotiating-or-suicide

The current stand off between Sudan and a newly independent South
Sudan made me recall ananecdote told by Henry Kissinger, after a
series of negotiations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's father,
the late President Hafez al-Assad.

"Assad never lost his aplomb. He negotiated daringly and tenaciously
like a riverboat gambler to make sure that he exacted the last sliver
of available concessions. I once told him that I had seen negotiators
who deliberately moved themselves to the edge of a precipice to show
that they had no further margin of maneuver. I had even known
negotiators who put one foot over the edge, in effect threatening
their own suicide. He was the only one who would actually jump off the
precipice, hoping that on his way down he could break his fall by
grabbing a tree he knew to be there. Assad beamed."

I will leave it to you to calculate who might be Hafez: South Sudan's
President Salva Kiir or Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir? Or both?

Now, there is a back story to this. You see, through 2011, Sudan
provided China with 5 percent of its total oil imports.

In January this year, President Barack Obama issued this memorandum.

"By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and
the laws of the United States, including section 503(a) of the Foreign
Assistance Act of 1961, as amended, and section 3(a)(1) of the Arms
Export Control Act, as amended, I hereby find that the furnishing of
defense articles and defense services to the Republic of South Sudan
will strengthen the security of the United States and promote world
peace," said the official text of Obama's decision.

It seems to me Sudan has become the epicenter of the US and China's
collision in Africa and that we are watching a 21st-century,
high-stakes proxy war.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +11.56% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.2058
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9027 [has
bounced sharply this week]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg -3.15% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +33.82% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +66.15% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Mozambique: Annual Revenue From Gas Could Reach U.S 10 Billion Dollars
http://allafrica.com/stories/201309050296.html

Speaking on Wednesday, at the opening of a meeting of her Ministry's
Coordinating Council, in the town of Manhica, about 90 kilometres
north of Maputo, Bias said that so far reserves of more than 95
trillion cubic feet of natural gas have been discovered in Offshore
Area One of the Rovuma Basin, off the Cabo Delgado coast, and a
further 75 trillion cubic feet in the neighbouring Area Four.

This quantity, she said, is enough for the construction of four LNG
production units ("trains") onshore, "with a total annual production
capacity of 20 million tonnes, which could represent annual revenues
of more than ten billion dollars".

The Rovuma Basin discoveries place Mozambique among the ten countries
in the world with the largest known reserves of natural gas. Bias said
this could allow, in the future, not only additional LNG trains, but
also new industries (producing fertilizer or synthetic fuels, for
example), which use natural gas as a raw material.

She announced that the government is drawing up a Gas Master Plan with
the aim of laying down guidelines "for the best ways of using the gas,
for domestic consumption and for export, so as to maximize the
benefits, in favour of the social and economic development of the
country".

Maputo Boom Town 4th June 2012
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/040NSX0406.pdf

Of course, Mozambique has popped large onto the global radar because
of gas reserves that have been discovered offshore and in the deep
sea.

The International Criminal Court's cases against Kenya's president and
deputy will go ahead, the prosecutor said on Thursday in a statement
released hours before the Kenyan parliament votes on withdrawing from
the court's jurisdiction
http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/09/05/kenya-icc-prosecutor-idINDEE98408M20130905

"The judicial process is now in motion at the International Criminal
Court. Justice must run its course," Bensouda said in a video posted
on the court's website.

"Witnesses have gone to great lengths to risk their lives and the
lives of their relatives to support our investigations and
prosecutions," she added.

Kenya's parliament began debating a motion on Thursday afternoon to
withdraw from the Rome Statute that underpins the International
Criminal Court.

"I am setting the stage to redeem the image of the Republic of Kenya,"
Aden Duale, majority leader from Kenyatta's Jubilee coalition, told
parliament in a televised session laying out the motion.

Even if Kenya does vote to withdraw, its departure from the first
permanent international criminal court would take at least a year and
would have no effect on cases already in train, Fadi El Abdallah, the
court's spokesman, said on Wednesday.

"It's not possible to stop independent judicial and legal proceedings
via a political measure," he said.

The Kenyan president's spokesman was not immediately available for
comment, but Ruto's lawyer said he would continue to cooperate with
the ICC.

"The deputy president has and will continue to cooperate with the
court," said Karim Khan, Ruto's counsel before the ICC.

"He wants to clear his name from this nonsense that's being bandied about."

Khan described as "offensive" Bensouda's claim that the relatives of
witnesses against Ruto had been intimidated and said she was trying to
divert attention from her office's "amateurish" investigation.

"To seek to create a fog of mystery around the inadequacies of her
office by alleging witness intimidation is to distort the truth in
hideous fashion," Khan said.

He would not comment on whether Ruto supported the motion on
withdrawal from the ICC.

Conclusions

Non Cooperation [which by the way, the President and His Deputy have
consistently forsworn] is the Key Risk.

11-MAR-2013 Kenya Inc and its Boom Time Baby
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX1103.pdf

What are the risks to this prognosis of mine? The risk is non
cooperation with the ICC and the incoming President lanced that again
and he has done so on this occasion and on every occasion he has been
asked and on every global channel, you care to mention.

We recognize and accept our international obligations and we will
continue to co-operate with all nations and international
institutions.'

Kenya via The World Economic Forum
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2012-13.pdf

Kenya is ranked 106th this year, showing a relatively steady
performance. The country's strengths continue to be found in the more
complex areas measured by the GCI. Kenya's innovative capacity is
ranked an impressive 50th, with high company spending on R&D and good
scientific research institutions that collaborate well with the
business sector in research activities. Supporting this innovative
potential is an educational system that-- although educating a
relatively small proportion of the population compared with most other
countries--gets relatively good marks for quality (37th) as well as for
on-the-job training (62nd). The economy is also supported by financial
markets that are well developed by international standards (24th) and
a relatively efficient labor market (39th). On the other hand, Kenya's
overall competitiveness is held back by a number of factors. Health is
an area of serious concern (115th), with a high prevalence of
communicable diseases contributing to the low life expectancy of less
than 57 years and reducing the productivity of the workforce. The
security situation in Kenya is also worrisome (125th).

Kenya Detailed Analysis via WEF P.218
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2012-13.pdf

EABL FY Earnings Releases and share price data here +2.8619% since 30th August
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzQ%3D

My Commentary from yesterday

EABL's CEO and Group laid out a very constructive Forward View in his
Interview with me and I am confident that the share price which got
caught up in the Cross Fire of the Headline earnings numbers is now
looking through the noise of the FY Earnings and heads back over
300.00.

An Interview with CEO and Group MD EABL Charles Ireland Esquire Part 1 YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vCQlI6fAFc

An Interview with CEO and Group MD EABL Charles Ireland Esquire Part 2 YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH4_7znAyd4

A Post FY 2013 Earnings Interview Charles Ireland EABL CEO
http://www.twitpic.com/db0fa3

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +28.42% in 2013
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

The All Share retreated 5.3403% 19th August through the 2nd of
September in what was a mild and orderly correction and we have seen
this kind of Pattern since the All Share entered a Bull Market in
April 2012.
The All Share has based out again and is +1.967% since the 2nd of September.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +13.1768%
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

IMF, Kenya to Co-Host Conference to Discuss the Country's Economic
Success, Prospects and Challenges September 4, 2013
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13321.htm

IMF, Kenya to Co-Host Conference to Discuss the Country's Economic
Success, Prospects and Challenges Press Release No. 13/321
September 4, 2013
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Government of Kenya will
co-host a conference on September 17-18, 2013, in Nairobi to explore
the policy challenges Kenya faces in building upon its economic
success to achieve emerging market status. The event will bring
together participants from government, the private sector, civil
society, and the development community with the goal of broadening the
dialogue on the vision for Kenya's future.
"We are very much looking forward to listening to all our Kenyan
partners at this crucial moment in the country's development," said
Antoinette Sayeh, Director of the IMF's African Department. "We have
had a very constructive dialogue with the Kenyan authorities, and this
conference will provide an opportunity to open the discussion to all
stakeholders."
The keynote address at the conference will be delivered by His
Excellency Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta, President of Kenya. The conference
will highlight the macroeconomic progress made by Kenya in recent
years, including in the context of an Extended Credit Facility with
the IMF that was approved in January 2011, as well as in the
implementation of structural and institutional reforms. It will also
take stock of the key remaining challenges that Kenya needs to address
in order to spur faster, inclusive economic growth.
"Kenya has undertaken far-reaching economic and structural reforms
over the years," said Domenico Fanizza, the IMF mission chief for
Kenya. "The purpose of the conference will be to showcase its track
record of sound economic management and demonstrate that effective
economic reforms have a high pay off. The conference will also
highlight the growing contribution of Kenya's traditional and
nontraditional development partners."

Kenya Ready for Take Off @IMFNews #IMFAFRICA, #AfricaRising
#Kenyatakeoff September 17th and 18th
http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2013/kenya/index.htm

#KenyaTakeoff #IMFAfrica #AfricaRising are The Hash Tags

A High Level Conference on Kenya's Economic Successes, Prospects, and Challenges

Nairobi, September 17-18, 2013

Co-hosted by the Kenyan National Treasury, the Central Bank of Kenya,
and the International Monetary Fund, the conference will bring
together about 150 participants from the Kenyan private sector, the
international business community, civil society, the Kenyan
government, and international institutions.

This event will showcase Kenya's economic achievements during the past
few years and highlight the country's future economic potential. In
particular, the conference will focus on policy priorities that will
help Kenya achieve sustained and inclusive growth as part of its quest
to reach emerging market status over the next decade. In addition, the
conference will provide an opportunity to highlight the growing role
played in the region by non-traditional development partners--including
China, India, Australia, and Brazil--and identify new areas for
collaboration.

The Conference is by Invitation

Program
Day One--17 September, 2013
8:00am-10:00am
Opening Session
The Kenyan Economy: A Promising Road Ahead
8:00am-8:15am
Opening Remarks
HENRY ROTICH (Cabinet Secretary, National Treasury)
8:15am-8:45am
Kenya: Resilient Macroeconomic Performance in a Challenging
International Environment,
ANTOINETTE MONSIO SAYEH (Director of the African Department of the
International Monetary Fund)
8:45am-9:15amKeynote Address
The Vision 2030: Where are we?
His Excellency Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta, President of the Republic of Kenya
9:15am-9:45am
Questions and Answers
9:45am-10:15am

Coffee Break
10:15am-11:45am

Session 2
The Private Sector Poised to Lead the Way,
Moderator: ALY-KHAN SATCHU (Chief Executive Officer, Rich Management Limited)
Kenya: the Next Emerging Market
CHARLES ROBERTSON (Global Chief Economist, Renaissance Capital)
Opportunities Stemming from a Rapidly Growing Middle Class,JONATHAN
CIANO (Chief Executive Officer, Uchumi Supermarkets)
Kenya's Future as a Regional ICT Hub,
ROBERT (BOB) COLLYMORE (Chief Executive Officer, Safaricom)
Harnessing East Africa's Growth Potential,
CHARLES IRELAND (Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, EABL)
Kenya and the Eastern African Market: Investment and Trade
Opportunities, a View from India,
T.C.A. RANGANATHAN (Chairman & Managing Director, Export-Import Bank of India)
12:00am-1:30pm
Session 3
Harnessing Natural Resources for Growth,
Moderator: AKERE T. MUNA (Vice-Chairperson, Transparency International )
Boosting Productivity through Family Agriculture: Lessons from
Brazil's Experience, representative from Brazil.
The Case for Socially Responsible Mining,
IAN SATCHWELL (Director, International Mining for Development Centre)
Maximizing the Benefits of Natural Resource Wealth,
DAVIES CHIRCHIR (Cabinet Secretary, Energy and Petroleum)
PHILIP DANIEL (Advisor, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF)
1:15-1:30
Question and Answers
1:30 pm-2:30pm

Lunch Break
2:30pm-4:15pm

Session 4
Fiscal Priorities to Support Growth:
Moderator: Kwame Owino, CEO, Institute of Economic Affairs
Delivering Better Services through Fiscal Reforms and Decentralization,
HENRY ROTICH (Cabinet Secretary, National Treasury)
Managing Public Debt to Lower Risks,
John Murugu, Director, Debt Management Department, National Treasury.
Addressing Development Needs while Maintaining a Sustainable Fiscal Stance,
ROGER NORD (Deputy Director, IMF African Department)
4:00 pm-4:15pm
Questions and Answers
4:15pm-4:45pm

Coffee Break
4:45pm-6:00pm

Session 5
Anchoring a Stable Monetary and Financial Outlook:
Moderator:PHUMELELE MBIYO (Head of Macroeconomic Research, Stanbic Bank)
Monetary Policy and the Transition Towards Inflation Targeting,NJUGUNA
NDUNG'U (Governor, Central Bank of Kenya)
DOMENICO FANIZZA (Assistant Director, IMF African Department)
5:30pm-6:00pm
Questions and Answers
7:00pm-9:00pm

Dinner Reception

Day Two--18 September, 2013
8:30am-10:30am
Session 6
The Financial Sector: Shifting Gears,
Moderator: MARTIN ODUOR-OTIENO (Senior Advisor, Deloitte East Africa)
Kenya's Mobile Banking: A Revolution in the Financial Landscape,
NJUGUNA NDUNG'U (Governor, Central Bank of Kenya)
Financial Deepening: What Role for the Stock Market and Private Equity,
AYISI MAKATIANI (Managing Partner and CEO, Fanisi Capital Ltd)
Bond Market Developments and Prospects: A Regional Point of View,
KITILI MBATHI (Regional Chief Executive, Standard Bank)
Tapping Foreign Savings: Kenya's Sovereign Bond Issue,
CARMEN ALTENKIRCH (Director, FitchRatings)
10:30am-11:00am

Coffee Break
11:00am-1:20pm

Session 7
Closing the Infrastructure Gap,
Moderator:EDDIE NJOROGE (Former Managing Director & CEO of Kenya
Electricity Generating Company)
Opening Remarks -- ENGINEER MICHAEL KAMAU (Cabinet Secretary,
Transport and Infrastructure)
Expanding Kenya's Transport Infrastructure in the Regional Context,
representative from the People's Republic of China.
Maximizing Kenya's Renewable Energy Potential,
GABRIEL NEGATU (Regional Director, East Africa Resource Center,
African Development Bank)
Geothermal Power Potential: Lessons from Iceland,
GUDMUNDUR THORODDSSON (Chief Executive Officer, Reykjavik Geothermal)
Investing for Development
DIARIÉTOU GAYE (World Bank's Country Director, Kenya)
Making Public Private Partnerships Work: Korea's Experience
DR. JONGYEARN (JON) LEE (Korea Development Institute)
1:00-1:20pm
Questions and Answers
1:20pm-2:30pm

Lunch Break
2:30pm-4:30pm

Session 8
Making Inclusive Growth a Reality,
Moderator: KATRINA MANSON (East Africa correspondent for the Financial Times)
Opening Remarks - ANNE WAIGURU (Cabinet Secretary, Devolution and Planning)
Financial Inclusion Has Made a Difference,
ALFRED HANNIG (Executive Director Alliance for Financial Inclusion)
Building Consensus Through Transfers to the Poor: Lessons from Brazil
OTAVIANO CANUTO (Senior Adviser on BRICS Economies, World Bank)
Creating Jobs for Kenya's Youth,
VIMAL SHAH (Chief Executive Officer, BIDCO Group)
4:10pm-4:30pm
Questions and Answers
4:30pm-5:15pm
Closing Remarks by IMF Antoinette M. Sayeh, Director African
Department, IMF and Henry Rotich, Cabinet Secretary, National Treasury
5:15pm-6:00pm

Press conference

The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.394% to close at 122.30.
The Nairobi All Share has rallied +2.368% since the 2nd of September.
The Nairobi NSE20 rallied 0.67% to close +31.35 points at 4708.95.
Equity Turnover was very vigorous for a Friday at 845.919m.
There were 28 Winners and 9 Losers at the Exchange today which
confirms the firmness in prices seen this week.

Safaricom was the most actively traded share in what was a brisk
Friday Session at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Safaricom closed
unchanged at 7.85 and traded 36.501m shares worth 287.225m. Safaricom
is +55.4455% in 2013 and sits 3.6809% below a record closing High of
8.15 reached on the 20th of August. I expect Safaricom to retest that
All Time High in reasonably short order. Safaricom trades on a
Trailing PE of 17.8409 and My Price Objective is 8.80. Safaricom
accelerated FY PAT +38.9% to 17.539810b and hiked the dividend +40.9%
which is a message all of its own. Full Year Data Revenue increased by
+27.8% to 8.42b [7.1% of total FY Revenues] and I believe Data is
close to an Inflexion Point and that this Curve will turn parabolic.

Safaricom share price data and Earnings Releases here +55.4455% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D

ScanGroup rallied 2.4225% to close at 63.50 and traded a 60.00-65.00
range and was trading at 65.00 +4.84% session highs at the closing
Bell. ScanGroup traded 700,600 shares worth 44.83m. ScanGroup reported
a 82.509% decline in H1 2013 PBT and this Earnings Release saw
ScanGroup retreat 13.669% from the day after the Earnings Release and
through the 2nd of September. Since the 2nd ScanGroup has rebounded
5.833% as Investors weighed the results against the Fact that Sir
Martin Sorrell's @WPP is paying 85.85 in cash for 21,355,898 shares.
The Discount is now 26.033% and remains too wide. WPP taking a
Majority is a transformative move for ScanGroup because it plugs the
Firm into WPP's world-wide Ecosystem.

ScanGroup share price data and H1 2013 Earnings Release
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTE%3D

H1 Earnings through June 2013 versus June 2012
H1 Revenue 1.805381b versus 1.881280b -4.00%
All Entities excluding Scanad Nigeria 160.813m versus 471.566m
Scanad Nigeria Limited [91.357m] versus 0.00
H1 PBT 101.168m versus 578.417m -82.509%
H1 PAT 43.624m versus 406.647m
H1 EPS 0.02 versus 1.13 -98.23%

12-AUG-2013 :: Acquisition by Cavendish Square Holding B.V of
94,075,974 ordinary shares of ScanGroup Ltd.
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/ScanGroup%20Ltd%20-%20Acquisition%20by_Cavendish%20Square%20Holdings%20B.V..pdf

Kenya Airways firmed 1.648% to close at 9.25 and was trading at 9.40
+3.3% at the finish Line. Kenya Airways traded 40,700 shares. 10.00 is
a Key Level on the Charts and I expect it to be tested, in due course.

Nation Media rallied 1.312% to close at 309.00 and traded 111,900
shares worth 34.685m. Nation Media reported H1 2013 Earnings where H1
Turnover expanded +9.992% to 6.4281b, H1 PAT accelerated +23.989% and
the Interim Dividend Pay Out was raised 20%.  Nation Media's Linus
Gitahi spoke of the 4.2068b Cash Pile as affording the Group maximum
Mergers and Acquisitions Flexibility. I met with Michael Meyer [Dean
Graduate School of Media and Communications] today and he said that
Nation Media makes more money than the New York Times.

Nation Media H1 Earnings Release and share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTA%3D

Standard Group traded 5,100 shares at 26.00 and -0.95%. Standard Group
[which has a lower base Effect than the Nation Media Group] trades on
a Trailing PE of 10.5625 and reported a +109% Acceleration in H1
Profit Before Tax.

Standard Group H1 Earnings Release and share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTE%3D

LongHorn Kenya followed on yesterdays 8.81% rally to close +2.11% at
14.50 and traded 1,700 shares.

Equity Bank bucked the generally Bullish Move at the Securities
Exchange and retreated 2.19% to close at 33.50 and traded 3.122m
shares worth 104.621m.

I&M rallied 5.88% to close at 90.00 and traded 3,500 shares.

Barclays Bank improved 0.29% to close at 17.30 and traded 4.105m
shares worth 71.011m. Barclays Bank is +9.841% in 2013, trades on a
Trailing PE of 10.745 and reported a 1% Decline in H1 2013 Profit
before Tax if you stripped out the restructuring charge. The Headline
H1 PBT 2013 Decline was 13%.

Barclays Bank Kenya H1 2013 Earnings Release
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/BBK%20Investor%20Presentation%20HY%202013%20.pdf

Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 45.00 and This is a Record
All Time reached today, yesterday and twice in August. Kenya
Commercial Bank traded 757,900 shares.
COOP Bank firmed 0.3125% to close at 16.05 and traded 2.704m shares
worth 43.407m.

National Bank was the biggest Gainer at the Securities Exchange today
and rallied 6.17% to close at 21.50 and traded 26,300 shares.

Olympia Capital was the biggest Loser at the Securities Exchange and
retreated 5.41% to close at 3.50 and traded 8,200 shares.

EABL traded 2nd at the Exchange and firmed 1.37% to close at 296.00
and traded 412,600 shares worth 122.185m. EABL has rallied 4.225%
since basing out at 284.00. EABL's Kenya Breweries remains responsible
for 67% of Total Revenues and You might recall that EABL pushed
through 2 Price Increases and towards the end of H2 of its Tusker
Flagship Beer. Of course, the standout during the results release was
the +276% Year on Year increase in Reserve Spirits.

Mumias Sugar firmed 1.41% to close at 3.60 and was trading at 3.75
+5.63% session highs at the Closing Bell. Mumias Sugar traded 1.24m
shares.

Athi River Mining firmed 0.71% to close at 70.50 and traded 509,800
shares worth 35.943m. ARM is +57.366% in 2013.

GEMS

Home Afrika which slumped 8.64% yesterday managed to eke out a +1.99%
rebound today to close at 10.25 and traded 33,900 shares.