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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 04th of October 2013
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"Wherever you are is the entry point"
-- Kabir

"If you don't break your ropes while you're alive, do you think ghosts
will do it after?"
-- Kabir

read more


Israel has said it was "not necessarily" involved in the death of the head of Iranian cyber warfare, Mojtaba Ahmadi
Law & Politics


"The fact that a cyber commander or this or that scientist was wiped
out or killed in this or that assassination does not necessarily mean
that Israel's hand is in the matter," Science and Technology Minister
- and former head of Israel's internal security agency, the Shin Bet -
Yaacov Peri told Israel Radio. "At the same time, it's definitely the
type of operation that can slow the danger in the Iranian issue both
in the nuclear realm and in the realm of cyber."

read more


Al-Shabaab Terrorists in Kenya Attack Seen as U.S. Threat Bloomberg
Law & Politics


Al-Shabaab, the Somali terrorist group behind a four-day attack on a
Nairobi shopping mall, threatens U.S. embassies and interests in
Africa and potentially on U.S. soil as well, counterterrorism analysts
told Congress.

The Westgate Mall attack last month showed al-Shabaab's growing
capacity to conduct sophisticated operations requiring careful
planning and reconnaissance, Seth Jones, associate director for
international security and defense policy at Rand Corp., told the
House Foreign Affairs Committee.

That ability, coupled with the group's use of online social media and
"Jihad rap" recruitment videos on Google Inc. (GOOG)'s YouTube.com to
attract young Americans, is a concern, Jones said at a panel hearing
yesterday.

"Al-Shabaab has the capacity to strike outside Somalia," he said.
"They have an interest in targeting the United States, and three,
they've been recruiting inside America. You put all those together
and, yes, there's reason for concern."

By 2012, almost a quarter of the group's attacks targeted Kenya, which
contributed troops to a United Nations peacekeeping mission in
Somalia, known as AMISOM and operated by theAfrican Union. As part of
its duties, AMISOM supports the Somali government that al-Shabaab
seeks to topple.

While Jones said the group hasn't shown interest in exporting terror
attacks to the U.S. right now, he and other witnesses told the
committee about the risk that Somalis already in the U.S. could become
part of a domestic plot.

There are 50 American members of al-Shabaab and there may be more,
said Representative Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican.

An Alabama man known as Abu Mansoor Al-Amriki, or "the American,"
helped lead the group until internal disputes led to his death last
month in an ambush in Somalia that the Associated Press said was
ordered by al-Shabaab. The U.S. Somali population is estimated at
100,000 by the U.S. Census Bureau.

"The risk to the homeland is definitely there," said Don Borelli,
chief operating officer of the Soufan Group, a New York-based
consulting firm that provides strategic intelligence services to
governments and businesses. "I don't know if it's higher today than it
was a month ago."

Borelli told the committee he fears that if radicalized
Somali-Americans hold a U.S. "blue passport, they can come back and
re-integrate and we have a very dangerous situation."

The militia's diffuse leadership structure makes it harder to
dismantle or destroy, David Kilcullen, a former U.S. State Department
adviser on counterterrorism, said in his book, "Out of The Mountains:
The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla."

 "the Somali militia made their command and control node invulnerable
by not having one," Kilcullen said.

Al-Shabaab has carried out almost 550 terrorist attacks since 2007,
according to the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and
Responses to Terrorism, in College Park, Maryland

"Al-Shabaab means 'the youth,'" said Richard Downie, deputy director
of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and Independent
Studies, a Washington research group. "It attracts a lot of people who
are media-savvy and uses media to powerful effect."

The Internet's reach allows al-Shabaab to recruit globally.

"The Internet does not know the boundary between Somalia and San
Diego," Borelli said. The U.S. shouldn't make the same mistake it made
in the early days of al-Qaeda and "see it only as a local group," he
said.

Conclusions

Reflections on #Westgate, #Samanthalewthwaite The White Widow From
Monday's Wrap Up Commentary

http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php?dt=MjAxMy05LTMw

#Westgate happened more than a week ago and to date there is no Grand
Unified Theory. There are competing Narratives and it is this Pot
Pourri of Narratives which is leaving many of us uncertain. Earlier
This week I characterised it as a @BP Moment. Kenya's share of Voice
was at a Level heretofore never experienced. The World's Media was
camped on our Doorstep. I found myself watching the #Live Feed,
trawling Eyewitness Accounts, reading the Al-Shabaab Twitter Handles
[Twitter knocked them down about 4x only for it to bounce back under a
different Handle]. In fact, Al-Shabaab live tweeted #Westgate and the
Cabinet Secretary's Bona Fides was undermined by the real time
rebuttals issued by Al-Shabaab and on Twitter. The latency of the
responses leads to me place the Author of the Twitter Handles on the
scene in #Westgate for an as yet undetermined time.

"Westgate: 14hr standoff relayed in 1400 rounds of bullets & 140
characters of vengeance & still ongoing. Gd morning Kenya!"

Another read ''Here are 2 of the Mujahideen inside #Westgate mall,
unruffled and strolling around the mall in such sangfroid manner.''

I kept thinking to myself 'sangfroid' is such an unusual word. It
means coolness of mind; calmness; composure a kind of cold bloodedness
under Pressure. I kept thinking to myself that Sangfroid is a Quality
highly prized in the Military. Thats a word the Daughter of a Military
Man might know. Nishet tells me, I think this is a Woman. And I said
Thats exactly it.

Another Tweet says ''I am Titanium.'' referencing a David Guetta Song,
whose lyrics read and are practically a Taunt

David Guetta - Titanium ft. Sia
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRfuAukYTKg

The Lyrics
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/davidguetta/titanium.html

[Sia:]
You shouted out
But I can't hear a word you say
I'm talking loud not saying much
I'm criticized but all your bullets ricochet
You shoot me down, but I get up

[Chorus:]
I'm bulletproof, nothing to lose
Fire away, fire away
Ricochet, you take your aim
Fire away, fire away
You shoot me down but I won't fall
I am titanium
You shoot me down but I won't fall
I am titanium

And therefore, I am putting Samantha Lewthwaite at the Scene and I
think she live tweeted from inside #Westgate for an as yet
undetermined Period. And I think she signalled her Presence and is
probably seeking some kind of recognition.  Finally, there is a Tweet
I recall about taking a walk. And I remember when my Phone was stolen
at Westlands roundabout, The Thief ran into a Tunnel. I think She was
in there, she live tweeted from inside and then she escaped through a
Tunnel.

VIDEO: The escape route tunnel used by terrorists after shopping centre massacre
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/nairobi-attack-escape-route-tunnel-2314873

My Friend Aidan Hartley tweeted ''what use would Samantha Lewthwaite
be when shooting starts? She's a bogey woman in a burkha, a media
construct'' and ''Yes immoral! like plucked eyebrows & lipstick sulky
selfies in hijab.''

Samantha Lewthwaite
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02356/hijab_2356692c.jpg

And I thought to myself, thats a whole new Audience. In fact, that is
the Audience. It's not in Mogadishu, its in Minneapolis, London, its
the Diaspora.

From Yesterdays response to @HoFrench 's Article in Foreign Policy
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/10/02/demography_is_destiny_africa_al_shabab?page=0,0

Interestingly, I think the #Westgate Attackers might well represent an
Al-Shabaab 2.0. The Extraordinary thing is how Al-Shabaab are able to
leverage the new Digital World to such outstanding effect. The
Linguistics around their Tweets speak powerfully to the fact that
Al-Shabaab's Audience is no longer in Mogadishu, its in the Diaspora
Communities in the West in Minneapolis, London et al. The Direction of
their Digital Voice speaks volumes to the Internationalisation of this
Group.

#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica's #Nairobi Bureau on the 19th Floor 10 days ago
http://www.twitpic.com/deneco

read more


@SpeakerBoehner @BARACKOBAMA STUBBORNLY REFUSING TO END CRISIS I CREATED POSTED BY ANDY BOROWITZ
Law & Politics


WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)--Speaker of the House John Boehner
(R-Ohio) said that he was disappointed after meeting with President
Obama at the White House on Wednesday afternoon, telling reporters,
"The President is stubbornly refusing to end the crisis I created."

"Government is about teamwork," Mr. Boehner continued. "I've done my
part by putting together an entirely optional crisis that has shut
down the government and will throw thousands out of work. Now it's up
to the President to do his part by ending it."

Mr. Boehner said that he was "flabbergasted" that the President was
looking to him to bring the current government shutdown to an end: "So
after doing all of the hard work to push the country to the brink, I'm
supposed to pull it back, too? How about you pitching in a little, Mr.
President?"

The House Speaker said that he hoped he did not have to manufacture
another entirely avoidable crisis over the debt ceiling in order to
stir the President to action. "Quite frankly, orchestrating these
unnecessary stalemates takes a lot of energy and I could really use a
rest," he said.

But Mr. Boehner seemed pessimistic that the President "got the message."

"Because of my actions, thousands of federal workers have already been
furloughed," he said. "How many more people do I have to throw out on
the street before the President wakes up?"

read more



Our S-1 will be filed publicly with the SEC momentarily. This Tweet does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale @Twitter via Reuters
International Trade


Twitter Inc, racing toward the largest Silicon Valley IPO since
Facebook Inc's 2012 coming-out party, hopes to woo investors with
rip-roaring revenue growth despite never having made a profit in the
past three years.

The eight-year-old microblogging service, the preferred communications
tool for celebrities and politicians alike, gave potential in

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3626  it reached $1.3646, the highest level since Feb. 4
Dollar Index 79.70
Japan Yen 97.06 The dollar headed for a third weekly decline against the yen
Swiss Franc 0.8983
Pound 1.6165
Aussie 0.9442 Australia's dollar climbed 1.3 percent since Sept. 27
India Rupee 61.445
South Korea Won 1069.60
Brazil Real 2.2078 Moody's said yesterday in a statement as it cut the
outlook on the nation's Baa2 rating, the second-lowest investment
grade. The economy will grow at annual rates of "just over" 2 percent
in 2013 and 2014
Egypt Pound 6.8922
South Africa Rand 10.0007

For the week, the dollar has dropped 1.2 percent versus the yen and
0.8 percent against Europe's shared currency.

The first partial government shutdown in 17 years has delayed three
economic releases this week, including the monthly payrolls report and
the official jobless rate, which had been scheduled for release today.

U.S. lawmakers still need to agree on raising the debt limit to avoid
a default after Oct. 17.

"The big problem is the issue with the debt ceiling, and then really,
it's the effect the shutdown has on data releases, which means the Fed
has nothing to work with," said Kara Ordway, a currency strategist at
City Index Group Ltd. in Sydney. "Tapering is going to be pushed
further and further back, and that's bad for the dollar."

The dollar has dropped 4.5 percent in the past three months, the most
among 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes, paring its gain this year to 2 percent.

The euro has risen 1.4 percent over three months, while the yen has
fallen 1.3 percent. For the year, the euro is up 5.7 percent, the best
performer on the indexes, and the yen has fallen 10 percent, making it
the worst performer.

Conclusions

@SpeakerBoehner's Strategy impairs the Dollar and Dollar Assets.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.70
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3626
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 97.06
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1317.85  [Bullion rebounded from an
eight-week low of $1,277.15 on Oct. 2]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Prices lost 1.3 percent this week, heading for the fifth drop in six.
Conclusions

A Brief Respite ahead of a big Tumble, in my opinion.

Crude Oil 5 day  Chart INO 103.31
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=NYMEX_CL.X13.E

WTI for November delivery dropped as much as 41 cents to $102.90 a
barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It
was at $103.06 as of 1:51 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday
decreased 79 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $103.31.

Conclusions

I think given the reduced Geopolitical Tension Levels, it should be at $100.00.

An oval D-color Flawless Type IIa South African diamond, weighing
118.28 carats and the largest of its type to appear at auction. It is
estimated to sell for as much as HK$280 million ($36 million) in Hong
Kong on Oct. 7.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-02/record-diamond-tops-sotheby-s-493-million-hong-kong-sale.html

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more


ENI of Italy Considers Large Gas Project in Mozambique NYT
Africa


ENI, the Italian oil company, and its partners in Mozambique are
strongly considering building a floating liquefied natural gas
platform to export a portion of the gas they have discovered in the
waters there

ENI and Anadarko are in the early stages of designing an onshore
liquefied natural gas facility in a remote area called Afungi in Cabo
Delgado Province in the northern part of Mozambique. The facility will
use gas from the fields in their two blocks that are geologically
connected.

The onshore LNG plant is likely to be one of the largest in the world
with, over time, at least 10 units, with a capacity of five million
metric tons each. The potential floating operation would be a small
fraction of the size, but it reflects a major new push by the industry
to find cheaper and more efficient ways to produce the natural gas
that is locked under the sea.

If things go smoothly, ENI and Anadarko expect gas to begin flowing
around the end of 2018. Total development costs for the drilling and
onshore export facilities are estimated to be around $50 billion.

A floating facility costing several billion dollars would provide ENI
with an alternative export route that evades a lot of onshore hurdles.
In floating LNG, the gas goes directly from the wells to the vessel,
which is a very large boat bristling with processing equipment. ENI
would export from the southern part of its block known as Area 4.

Maputo Boom Town The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/040NSX0406.pdf

GREETINGS from the Serena Polana, Maputo. I can confirm that Maputo is
the land of wonderful and flavoursome tiger prawns. The Architecture
is also deliciously retro. By the way, the Polana was built in 1922
and the flavour is fabulously Riviera and very swanky. It is less than
4 hours by plane from Nairobi and surely set to be the most of in
things and places to visit.
Of course, Mozambique has popped large onto the global radar because
of gas reserves that have been discovered offshore and in the deep
sea.

I have said before, that I believe the eastern seaboard of Africa is
clearly the last great energy prize in the c21st and I believe this
lake of hydrocarbons stretches from Mozambique up through Tanzania,
Kenya and Somalia. We remain in the early stage of this discovery
process but Mozambique is further along the curve.

read more



Somalia, he said, did not have a single military helicopter to use in the battle against al Shabaab
Africa


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +15.19% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.0040
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

BMW to Halt South Africa Expansion Plans After Strikes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-03/bmw-to-halt-south-africa-expansion-plans-after-labor-strikes.html

"Any plans to expand our plant or our capacity further have been put
indefinitely on hold," BMW spokesman Guy Kilfoil said in an interview
today. "Future decisions are being made where South Africa would have
been in the running. Based on the current environment we're definitely
not. You could say things have changed."

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8928
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt's foreign reserves fell by $206 million in September to $18.71
billion [which is actually commendable because they returned $2b to
Qatar in this period]

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +7.28% 2013 [I stand by +20.00% Forecast for Year End]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +35.18% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +68.96% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


"They are afraid of the people, they are really nervous." So replied an Angolan friend, a journalist since the 1970s
Africa


"They are afraid of the people, they are really nervous." So replied
an Angolan friend, a journalist since the 1970s, when I asked him why
his country's police had been holding a 17-year-old boy in solitary
confinement without visitors or access to lawyers since mid-September.
Manuel Chivonde Nito Alves, the teenager in question, was charged with
defamation and arrested on 12 September in the capital, Luanda. Not
long before, he had visited a printing shop where he ordered 20
T-shirts to be printed with the words "Ze Dú/ Out/ Disgusting/
Dictator". Ze Dú is the nickname for president José Eduardo dos
Santos, who begins his 35th year in power this month. On the back of
each T-shirt, the young activist wanted the phrase: "Angolan people/
when the war/ is necessary and urgent in Angola/ to change the
dictatorial government."

read more


Bizarre African Lake Natron Turns Flamingos Into Stone
Africa


ABritish photographer who specializes in documenting regions of East
Africa has found one more place to add to your list of places not to
go swimming.

Nick Brandt recently took a series of photographs at Lake Natron, in
northern Tanzania, showing birds that have been turned to stone by the
highly toxic chemical composition of the lake's waters.

While water temperatures in the hellish lake can reach 140 degrees
Fahrenheit, it's the extreme alkaline quality of the water that
renders it uninhabitable except by a single breed of
alkaline-resistant fish and some algae.

The lake is named after the naturally occurring substance natron which
consists primarily of sodium carbonate with a lesser degree of sodium
bicarbonate, also known as baking soda. The composition of the lake's
waters is similar to natron.

Natron was often used by ancient Egyptians to mummify corpses.

Scientists believe that birds see the glassy surface of the waters as
a landing area, but then they sink into the lake and can't escape
because of the water's thick, heavy quality. Once trapped, they, in
effect, mummify.

Flamingos use the lake's perimeter as a nesting grounds and feed off
the blue-green algae that lives on the surface. Because the lake is so
hot and caustic, no other animals come near the place, allowing the
flamingos to remain safe from predators.

Brandy recovered carcasses of the dead birds and arranged them into
poses, creating a series of eerie images.

"I could not help but photograph them," Brandt said. "No one knows for
certain exactly how they die, but it appears that the extreme
reflective nature of the lake's surface confuses them, and like birds
crashing into plate glass windows, they crash into the lake."

Nick Brandt Photography Lake Natron
http://blu.stb.s-msn.com/i/19/E0D5107D3FC2DE892C01ADBFEB4_h316_w628_m5_cQSnbHBrq.jpg

Lake Magadi #Kenya
http://www.twitpic.com/cv2fhw

Clouds reflected in Lake Magadi
http://www.twitpic.com/cv2hvi

read more



End of the line for Kenya's 'lunatic Express'
Kenyan Economy


SOUNDBITE 2: Aly-Khan Satchu (man), economic analyst (English, 24
sec): "Africa suffers from an enormous infrastructure deficit, Kenya
in particular. Kenya's main geo-political advantage is that it's a
pivot state, it's a transit state. A number of land-locked country's
route to the sea is via Kenya. And if you want to maintain, and embed,
and entrench that advantage, you've really got to have some 21st
century infrastructure."

read more


Mombasa Nairobi Railway 648 Days Ago
Kenyan Economy


Maktau Gate Exit Tsavo West #Kenya 406 days
http://www.twitpic.com/amobyi

Kenya is looking East, but not for comfort
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/kenya-is-looking-east-but-not-for-comfort-8851837.html

In March last year, a clear sign emerged of power shifts in Kenya. The
French ambassador, Etienne de Poncins, publicly complained that
accessing the then president, Mr Mwai Kibaki, was almost impossible
for Western diplomats.

Mr Kibaki, who has since retired, responded through his spokesman
saying that he was not unreachable "to any nation that works for the
good of the Kenyan people".

In the last 10 years of Kibaki rule, Kenya, like most African
countries, has not hidden its preference for China to the traditional
allies like United Kingdom, France and America.

In March this year, Mr Uhuru Kenyatta succeeded him. He wasted no time
in following in Mr Kibaki's footsteps.

For the new president, though, it is understandable. Together with his
deputy, William Ruto, he is facing crimes against humanity charges at
theInternational Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands.

Western countries have said they can have only essential contact with
the Kenyan leaders owing to the charges. China, on its part, does not
care what crimes you are accused of. To them, business interests come
first.

President Kenyatta and his deputy have succeeded in portraying China
as the true friends of Kenya and western countries as the enemies.

A few days after US president, Barack Obama, skipped Kenya during his
Africa visit, Mr Kenyatta embarked on a tour of Russia and China. Some
observers saw this as a coded message to the US president.

But a look at the recent events paints a different picture. When Jomo
Kenyatta International Airport was gutted by fire in August, it is US
and UK governments that came through.

President Obama called his Kenyan counterpart offering to help them
get the airport operational and secure as quickly as possible.

Indeed, those who passed via the airport can attest that the tents -
which were used as a temporary terminal -, were branded 'USAID'.

The FBI joined in the investigations of the cause of the fire. The
British donated x-ray equipment to boost the security. China was
nowhere to be seen. No. Actually, they were there -constructing the
new US$ 654 million (£404 million) terminal.

The script was no different after the September 21 terror attack on
Westgate Mall. World leaders, including Obama and UK Prime Minister
David Cameron, called Mr Kenyatta to express sympathy.

The FBI and Scotland Yard are currently assisting Kenyan investigators
with a forensic probe.

Indeed, when he announced that the siege had come to an end, President
Kenyatta gave a list of "many friends throughout the world who came
through with moral support and offers of various forms of assistance".

Mr Kenyatta thanked President Yoweri Museveni (Uganda), Jakaya Kikwete
(Tanzania), Paul Kagame (Rwanda), Salva Kiir (South Sudan) and Pierre
Nkurunziza (Burundi) saying they called daily to encourage Kenyans.

"Other African and global leaders, including presidents Goodluck
Jonathan of Nigeria, Jacob Zuma of South Africa, and Hailemariam
Desalegne, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, as well as United States
president Barack Obama, the prime ministers of Israel and Britain have
also expressed their sympathies and best wishes," added President
Kenyatta.

Although the country was in deep mourning, it did not take long before
some people like blogger, Robert Alai, noticed that China was not on
the list.

He tweeted: "China missing from President Uhuru's mentions. But
#isorait (it's alright). #WestgateAttack."

This touched off a big discussion on Twitter. This should serve as a
lesson for the leadership to know who the true friends of Kenya are.
As they say, a friend in need is a friend in deed.

Moving forward, though, I do not see a change in policy by the Kenyan
government especially with China willing to give Mr Kenyatta and Mr
Ruto a shoulder to lean on over their ICC cases.

Conclusions

#Westgate http://www.twitpic.com/deneco essentially places President
@UKenyatta and Kenya at the Frontline of the Global War on Terror and
this will mark a Trend Change in US, UK and Europe's relations with
the Kenyatta Government. Aly-Khan Satchu Nairobi

19-AUG-2013 ::@UKenyatta rebalances towards China
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX1908.pdf

Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why 'The precocity of the
Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange
is one of the glaring facts of history', made possible by the
'reversible escalator' of the monsoon.'

I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China's dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US'
interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of
Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize
in the c21st. [President Kenyatta probably posed the question to
Vladimir Putin, whether Russia felt it had a role to play in this
Energy Great Game in East Africa]. Therefore, the control of the
Indian Ocean becomes kind of decisive and with control China can be
shut down quite quickly. A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's
pivot to Asia is US/NATO Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

read more


Unilever plans new manufacturing plant in Kenya
Kenyan Economy


Anglo-Dutch consumer goods firmUnilever said on Thursday it plans to
invest 150 million euros ($203.9 million) in a new manufacturing plant
in Kenya that will help it access the east African market. Unilever's
Global Chief Executive, Paul Polman, said the firm's planned
investment will cater for the company's expanding interests in the
region, including in Ethiopia and Tanzania.
Polman met Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta at State House Nairobi, as
part of a visit to review his company's interests in the country and
consult government and business leaders.

He said his company has identified Kenya as one of the three strategic
hubs in Africa, alongside Nigeria and South Africa.

Unilever also plans to expand its existing factories in the lush
hill-top farmlands of Kericho to increase the amount of teas processed
to 50,000 tonnes per year from 30,000 tonnes.

read more


"Under the terms of the shareholders' agreement signed with the GOK at the time of the acquisition, Essar Energy has the right, under certain conditions, to exercise a 'put option' that offers the government a chance to buy Essar Energy's 50 per cent
Kenyan Economy


Kenya's ARM Cement sees profit up 35 pct this year due regional growth Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/kenya-arm-idUSL6N0HT1TL20131003

NAIROBI, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Second biggest Kenyan cement firm ARM
Cement expects earnings to grow at a slightly faster rate this year
after a new plant in Tanzania has pushed up capacity, its chief
executive said on Thursday.

East African cement consumption is growing thanks to vibrant
economies, drawing in foreign firms like Nigeria's Dangote Cement,
which plans a $400 million plant in Kenya.

The market remains competitive, even if governments are looking to
spend on projects like roads, ports and airports.

"This year we are looking at increasing our top line and bottom line
by 35 percent over last year and next year we expect a similar
growth," Pradeep Paunrana told Reuters in his office, referring to his
expectations for profitability and sales.

ARM posted a 31 percent jump in pretax profit in 2012 to 1.76 billion
shillings ($20.29 million).

Demand for cement in east Africa is expected to rise due to the large
infrastructure projects planned by governments.

ARM's new cement grinding plant in Tanzania's commercial capital of
Dar es Salaam, commissioned a year ago, had added 750,000 tonnes of
production capacity to the existing 1 million tonnes in Kenya,
Paunrana said. Another plant in Tanga, which will be able to make 1.2
million tonnes a year of clinker, used in cement making, was nearing
completion and it will start production early next year.

"The economy and the construction sector was at a standstill for 25
years in Tanzania. When it opened up about 10-12 years ago, cement
consumption rate was growing at a faster rate than even Kenya,"
Paunrana said, alluding to long socialist rule.

Tanzania, whose annual consumption stands at 3.2 million tonnes
compared with Kenya's 4.7 million tonnes, was growing at a rate of 14
percent per year, he said.

ARM, one of the top 12 largest firms by market value on the Nairobi
bourse, spent close to $200 million on the Tanzanian investments,
raised through a mix of debt and equity.

ARM will turn its sights on Rwanda, where it hopes $15-20 million in
planned investments will help double its share to about a third of the
450,000 tonnes a year market, he said.

The investment in the Great Lakes region will be part of a $250-300
million investment over three years that will include a new cement and
clinker plant in Kitui in eastern Kenya.

"We have a lot of support and we will be making some kind of
announcement very shortly on fund raising," he said.

Despite his optimism, Paunrana warned foreign firms eyeing a bonanza
that they faced a competitive market, with falling margins, forcing
firms to control costs aggressively.

"If we were building our plants at $400-500 million a throw, then it
would be impossible to compete in this market," he said.

"Everybody in the cement business and the construction sector is
looking at the same set of economic data and the prospects so it is a
very competitive area."

A tonne of cement costs $280-$350 in Nigeria, leaving firms with a
margin of $90. In Kenya it costs as little as $110, leaving firms with
a margin of less than $25, he said.

"The biggest challenge to the growth of the cement industry in east
Africa remains power," he said, blaming low supply and ageing grids
for frequent blackouts that disrupt production.

Athi River Cement share price data here +62.946% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjY%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           73.00
Total Shares Issued:          495300000.00
Market Capitalization:        36,156,900,000
EPS:             2.51
PE:                 29.084

A mineral extraction and processing company which manufactures lime,
cement and other industrial fertilizers.

H1 Turnover 6.499126b versus 5.073987b +28%
H1 PBT 1.015317b versus 0.790962b +28%
H1 PAT 0.702825b versus 0.550183b +28%
Annualised EPS 2.83 versus 2.23
Group generated 2b of Cashflow H1

Conclusions

Execution has been flawless ever since I started following this Share.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.401
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  36.2007% in 2013 2013
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

The Nairobi All Share retreated 0.36% during the 2 sessions
immediately after the Westgate Attack. Subsequently the All Share has
rallied +4.0173% since the 24th of September in an extraordinary and
even counterintuitive Bull Move to a 5+ Year high.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +17.057% in 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more


Muslim cleric gunned down in KenyaBy GALGALO BOCHA
Kenyan Economy


Sheikh Ibrahim Rogo, the successor to a controversial Muslim cleric
killed last year, was Thursday night together with three others gunned
down by unknown assailants in the Kenyan coastal city of Mombasa.

Mr Rogo was heading home from a mosque where he had been preaching
when their vehicle was sprayed with bullets, killing four of its five
occupants.

He succeeded the fiery Sheikh Aboud Rogo, who was killed in similar
circumstances in August last year, leading to days of deadly riots in
Mombasa. Aboud had been linked to Somali extremist group Al-Shabaab,
which saw him placed on a UN sanctions list.

The killing of Sheikh Ibrahim Rogo took place less than a kilometre
from the Bamburi police station.

The others in the vehicle were identified as Gadaffi Mohammed, a
carpenter, Issa Abdalla, his brother in law and the driver, and a Mr
Omar Abu Rumeisa.

One passenger, Salim Aboud, survived the attack by playing dead.

Salim Aboud said they were heading home in their Toyota van when
people on foot started shooting at their car until it veered off the
road.

"We have finished them," Mr Salim Aboud heard them say as he pretended
to be dead. The assailants are said to have sped-off in a saloon car.

Muslim leaders including controversial Sheikh Abubakar Sheriff alias
Makaburi who arrived at the scene later pointed an accusing finger at
the Anti Terrorism Police Unit (ATPU).

"The ATPU were here, why have they run way? What are we going to do
next and why are they killing us? We have not killed any one but the
police are killing innocent Muslims," said Mr Makaburi.

"This actions are being led by Americans and Israelis, Sheikh Ibrahim
was not at Westgate during the attack. Western governments do not want
Muslims to talk about Jihad. It is part and parcel of Islam, kill us
all," he said.

An attack by Al-Shabaab militants on the popular Nairobi shopping
centre of Westgate led to a four-day dramatic siege that led to the
deaths of at least 67 people.

read more


Kenyan police officers at the scene where four people including a Muslim cleric were gunned down on along the coastal Mombasa-Malindi highway on October 4, 2013.
Kenyan Economy


03-SEP-2012 ::  Coast problems are deeper than Riots
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX0309(1).pdf

The week before last, we had driven through Tsavo West, exited the
park deep near the Tanzania border, driven to Diani and thoroughly
enjoyed ourselves. In fact, the phrase 'halcyon days' [ A period of
calm, often nostalgic: "halcyon days of yore", "halcyon days of
youth"] best described that week. We saw elephants in the morning and
in the evening we were walking barefoot on the beach. I met a fellow
named Volcker who told me that If I came back in February, he would
take me swimming with the whale sharks and I thought to myself, this
is a blessed place and if we marketed it right, the whole world would
want to come.

Then, last week, on the 27th of August, Aboud Rogo Mohammed was shot
on the always busy Bamburi Road, not far from Pirates. This proved the
spark that ignited a tinderbox and I watched events unfold with
trepidation. We now exist in a 24/7 always on world and for a moment
it looked like Mombasa was morphing into Waziristan and tsunami of
travel advisories would be winging their way through the air.

Domenico Fanizza & Ragnar Gudmundsson @IMFNews #MindSpeak

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FRwlD0BKuw

Ups and Downs are physiological in a Floating exchange rate says
Domenico Fanizza @IMFNews #Kenya

http://www.twitpic.com/dfrxhs

30-SEP-2013 :: Helping Kenya to Become an Emerging Market @IMFNews
Ragnar Gudmundsson and Domenico Fanizza

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/docs/MindSpeakKenya.pdf

I thank My Guests Domenico Fanizza and Ragnar Gudmundsson@IMFNews
#Mindspeak #Kenyatakeoff @interConNairobi

http://www.twitpic.com/dfhbyl

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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