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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 08th of October 2013

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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

I found this Photograph yesterday Evening.

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Stargazing with the Moai

And I started thinking of Mother and I think I like star gazing in
part because when I was a little Boy she used to tell me, when I die,
I will be up in the Sky, a star watching over you. And You see all our
realities are our own and mine is this, There are moments when I feel
she is as close to me as my Hannah. And That is why I love that Poem
by Kabir

Songs of #Kabir Between the Poles of the Concious and the Unconcious
there has the Mind made a Swing. Songs of #Kabir Thereon hang all
Beings and all worlds, and that Swing never ceases it's Sway Songs of
#Kabir Millions of Beings are there The Sun and the Moon in their
courses are there Millions of ages pass Songs of #Kabir And The Swing
goes on. All Swing! The Sky and the Earth and the Air and the Water

And this Morning, I was half awake in the early hours and I lulled
myself back to sleep thinking I was lying back and watching her just

My Cousin Julie [whom Mum was very close to] is currently at Mount
Abu. And she has been sending me little snippets on Email. And Mum
went there.

Anyway, I had been kind of complaining to her [My Mother in my mind as
it were] and saying where is that Sweet Spot?

And Wouter appeared last week. And said it is this way.

So There we are a little diversion now lets get back to the World.

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Text of Obama's Exclusive Interview With the AP
Law & Politics

THE PRESIDENT: Well, keep in mind, America has never not paid its
bills. And I've said repeatedly that that's not something anybody
should be threatening -- the potential default of the United States,
where we are essentially deadbeats. That's never happened.

So what we know is, is that in the Iranian population at least, there
is a genuine interest in moving in a new direction. Their economy has
been crippled by international sanctions that were put in place
because Iran had not been following international guidelines, and had
behaved in ways that made a lot of people feel they were pursuing a
nuclear weapon.

I think Rouhani has staked his position on the idea that he can
improve relations with the rest of the world. And so far, he's been
saying a lot of the right things. And the question now is, can he
follow through? The way the Iranian system works, he's not the only
decision maker -- he's not even the ultimate decision maker.

But if in fact he is able to present a credible plan that says Iran is
pursuing peaceful nuclear energy but we're not pursuing nuclear
weapons, and we are willing to be part of a internationally verified
structure so that all other countries in the world know they are not
pursuing nuclear weapons, then, in fact, they can improve relations,
improve their economy. And we should test that.

Q: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week that Iran
is about six months away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon
(CORRECTION: Netanyahu said last year that Iran was about six months
away from having most of the enriched uranium needed to produce a
nuclear weapon). You said in March, before your trip to Israel, that
you thought Iran was a year or more away. What's the U.S. intelligence
assessment at this point on that timetable?

THE PRESIDENT: Our assessment continues to be a year or more away. And
in fact, actually, our estimate is probably more conservative than the
estimates of Israeli intelligence services.

But what I've said to Prime Minister Netanyahu is that the entire
point of us setting up sanctions and putting pressure on the Iranian
economy was to bring them to the table in a serious way to see if we
can resolve this issue diplomatically. And we've got to test that.
We're not going to take a bad deal. We are going to make sure that we
verify any agreement that we might strike.

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Fisher said in a speech in that city that the U.S. “cannot afford to default” and that debt ceiling talks “will come down to the wire.” Bloomberg
International Trade

Republicans are insisting on changing the 2010 Affordable Care Act,
while Obama refuses to engage in discussions about policy conditions
tied to opening the government or raising the debt ceiling. Treasury
Secretary Jacob J. Lew has warned the U.S. may be unable to pay its
bills after Oct. 17.

“We’re not going to negotiate under the threat of economic
catastrophe,” Obama said yesterday during a visit to the Federal
Emergency Management Agency in Washington.

The difference in rates between one- and three-month U.S. government
bills increased to 13.7 basis points yesterday, the most since
September 2008 as investors sought a hedge against the risk of a
default on bills maturing closest to the debt-ceiling deadline.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said in a
speech in that city that the U.S. “cannot afford to default” and that
debt ceiling talks “will come down to the wire.”

“Volatilities are still relatively low, so I think there is an ongoing
assumption that this will be solved,” Robert Rennie, the chief
currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac, said of the U.S. debt talks.


if the US defaults [and notwithstanding it is a self-inflicted
self-harm type thing] There will be a degree of permanent impairment
simply on a dysfunctional Government basis.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3564
Dollar Index 80.02
Japan Yen 97.14  The Yen touched 96.57, the strongest since Aug. 12
Swiss Franc 0.9052
Pound 1.6080
Aussie 0.9444
India Rupee 61.66 The rupee has climbed about 12 percent versus the
dollar since reaching a record low in August
South Korea Won 1073.90
Brazil Real 2.2046
Egypt Pound 6.8941
South Africa Rand 9.9942

The Currency market is now treading water.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.02

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3564

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 97.14

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This year, cocoa futures have climbed 21 percent, the biggest gain among 24 raw materials in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index Bloomberg

shows chocolate-confectionary sales in the Asia
Pacific will climb 5.4 percent next year from 2013, more than doubling
since 1999, according to data from Euromonitor International Ltd.
Sales in North America were forecast to drop 0.1 percent in 2014,
capping a 9.9 percent decline in 15 years.

Yesterday, the price for December delivery reached $2,710 a ton on ICE
Futures U.S. in New York, the highest for a most-active contract since
Nov. 8, 2011.

Cocoa Dec 2013 1 Year Chart INO

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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@WorldBankAfrica “We expect growth to rise to 5.3% in 2014 and still go higher to 5.5% in 2015” - Punam Chuhan-Pole http://wrld.bg/pvdPt #AfricasPulse

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should strengthen to 5.3 percent
next year, the World Bank said on Monday, lifting its forecast from
the 5.1 percent projected earlier this the year.

The region was expected to grow 5.5 percent in 2015, up from a
previous forecast of 5.2 percent, the organisation said in its
bi-annual 'Africa's Pulse' report.

Growth for this year is forecast at 4.9 percent, higher than last
year's 4.2 percent.

“From 2002 to 2012, #Africa exports increased from $100 billion to
$400 billion.” Punam Chuhan-Pole http://wrld.bg/pvdPt  #AfricasPulse

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@WorldBankAfrica Africa Pulse October 2013

Economic activity remains strong in much of Sub-Saharan Africa,
underpinned by robust domestic demand.

The economic outlook for the region is positive, although the region
is vulnerable to both a sharp decline in commodity prices and the
fragility of the global economy.

More than a decade of growth has helped to lower poverty, but the twin
goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity call
for a sharp ramping up of effort.

A low growth elasticity of poverty means that growth alone will not
suffice to rapidly reduce poverty in the region. Accelerating Africa’s
poverty reduction will also require more inclusive growth processes
and tackling inequality.

Within the nonresource-rich country group, there are several countries
that have achieved sustained high growth rates for over a decade, such
as Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Rwanda. Among countries where growth is
lagging pre-crisis levels is South Africa

Weak growth in major trading partners (especially Europe), labor
unrest and mining strikes, burdensome regulations, and infrastructure
gaps have held back the country’s growth, which averaged 3 percent in
2010-12 compared to 4.6 percent in 2003-08.

GDP growth continues to be supported by robust domestic demand.
Domestic demand has grown faster than GDP.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the region have steadily
increased in recent years, and are projected to rise by 24 percent to
about $40 billion in 2013.

Government gross debt-to-GDP ratio, though rising, is overall
moderate. The debt ratio has edged up from 29 percent of GDP in 2008
to over 33 percent in 2012. There remain significant differences among
countries in the region, however, with the debt-to-GDP ratio being as
low as 8 percent in Equatorial Guinea and as high as 83 percent in
Cape Verde (and even higher in Eritrea). A few countries such as Ghana
and Senegal have seen a sharp rise in debt ratios in recent years

The region’s export performance is being adversely impacted by the
decline in commodity prices. In value terms, goods exports from the
region contracted by 4.1 percent for the first six months of 2013.
According to World Bank commodity composite price indexes, prices of
agricultural goods, metals and minerals, and oil declined by 9.0, 8.8,
and 5.6 percent, respectively, in the first six month of 2013,
compared to the same period a year ago

Strong export growth has underpinned Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic
expansion. During 2002–12, the region’s total merchandise exports (in
value terms) grew at an average annual rate of 14 percent, rising from
$100 billion to $400 billion. Much of this impressive performance is
driven by the region’s natural resources, underpinned by the commodity
price boom of 2003–08. Oil, metal, and other mineral exports increased
from $56 billion in 2002 to $288 billion in 2012, and oil exports
alone accounted for over half of goods exports in 2012. Together,
these commodities have contributed to over two-thirds of total export
growth during this period

Overall, 11 countries out of 47 rely on a single commodity for 50
percent of export earnings. Most of these are primary commodities,
especially oil. The share of oil in total exports in 2011 was over 97
percent in Angola and around 85 percent for Nigeria. In some
countries, agricultural commodities have a large share, for example,
cashew nuts (93 percent) in Guinea-Bissau, coffee (70 percent) in
Burundi, and tobacco (53 percent) in Malawi. Nearly three-quarters of
countries rely on three commodities for 50 percent or more of export

China, along with the other BRICs, now accounts for 36 percent of the
region’s exports, up from only 9 percent in 2002.5 In 2012,
Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports to the BRICs reached $144 billion—just
shy of the level of exports to the EU and the United States combined
($148 billion). China is the largest destination for African exports
and accounted for a quarter of the region’s exports—predominantly
primary commodities.

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Oil companies in Somalia must deal with central govt -Minister

LONDON, Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) 7 (Reuters) - Oil companies
eyeing Somalia's exploration potential must sign contracts only with
its central government, a minister said, dismissing as invalid
existing deals between regional governments and companies such as
Genel Energy.

The East African coastline has rapidly emerged as one of the world's
hottest oil exploration areas. Waters off Somalia, a country trying to
put two decades of armed chaos behind it, are expected to be the next
on the radar of oil and gas companies.

Some companies have already started to move in, but they have signed
contracts with the governments of two different regions, the breakaway
Somaliland enclave in the case of London-listed Genel and Norway's
DNO, and semi-autonomous Puntland in the case of Canada's Africa Oil
Corp (CDNX: AOI.V - news) .

"From the perspective of the government these are not valid licences
and they (the companies) should start negotiations with the federal
government," Somali Minister of Natural Resources Abdirizak Omar
Mohamed said on the sidelines of a conference.

"There are legal questions that need to be addressed."

Genel declined to comment on what the minister said, while Africa Oil
and DNO could not immediately be reached for comment.

The central government in Mogadishu faces a huge task in trying to
unite a nation with devolved powers after two decades of war and clan

U.N. monitors warned in a report in July that Western commercial oil
exploration in disputed areas of Somalia and discrepancies over which
authorities can issue licences to firms could spark further conflict
in the country.

The minister said security conditions were "sufficient" for companies
that have contracts dating from before a civil war started in 1991 to
return and end long periods of force majeure.

"We will honour their concessions. We will honour their rights. We
want them to come back," he said, appealing to the world's largest oil
company Exxon Mobil and Shell (LSE: RDSB.L - news) , which both had a
presence prior to 1991.

I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of Africa from Mozambique
through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize in the c21st.


I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China’s dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US’
interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of
Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize
in the c21st. Therefore, the control of the Indian Ocean becomes kind
of decisive and with control China can be shut down quite quickly. A
Sine qua non of President Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia is US/NATO
Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

Madagascar presidential candidate Jean Louis Robinson said he’ll cut
taxes and take steps to attract foreign investors to help resuscitate
economic growth that’s been at a standstill since a coup four years


“Investors need to know that contracts are contracts and once signed,
will be respected; at the same time, the population is suffering from
criminal attacks,” said Robinson. “There can not be development
without security.”

Rajoelina, Ravalomanana, who lives in exile in South Africa, and
Ratsiraka will remain influential figures and still wield power from
behind the scenes after the vote, U.S.-based Strategic Forecasting
Inc. said in an e-mailed note on Sept. 18.

The men “will continue dominating Malagasy politics, even if the three
cannot directly run for office,” Stratfor said. “In fact, barring them
from candidacy could result in a backlash as their supporters respond
with violence.” Bombs have exploded in Antananarivo this year ahead of
elections with no casualties reported, according to Stratfor.

Voting will go to a run-off if no single candidate gets a majority in
the first round. Robinson will reach the second round, according to 70
percent of the 1,084 people surveyed by Tana News, a Madagascar-based
news website.



Rwanda, Uganda tell U.N. envoys peace in Congo is not their problem Reuters

The presidents of Rwanda and Uganda told U.N. Security Council envoys
on Monday that their countries were not responsible for bringing peace
to neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo's volatile east, which has
long been mired in conflict and is bristling with armed groups.

Envoys from the 15-member council met with Rwandan President Paul
Kagame in Kigali and then President Yoweri Museveni in Kampala after
spending two days in Congo visiting the United Nations' largest
peacekeeping operation.

Britain's U.N. Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant said both Kagame and
Museveni described an 18-month rebellion by the M23 guerrilla group as
just a symptom and not a cause of Congo's problems, which were much
more deep-seated in issues such as a lack of governance.

"(They said) it was really up to (Congolese President Joseph) Kabila
to resolve those issues. The international community could still help,
but it wasn't the responsibility of Rwanda and it wasn't the
responsibility of Uganda," Lyall Grant told reporters.

"They felt that Kabila had made a lot of mistakes and that he didn't
have control of his own troops and that was the fundamental issue -
not anything else about cross-border interference," he said.

U.N. experts have accused Rwanda of supporting M23, which is led by
ethnic Tutus, a charge that Kigali has rejected. The roots of the
rebellion in the region lie in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, where Hutu
troops killed 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus.

Some Security Council envoys described Kagame as defensive during the
meeting. He told them that Rwanda, where Tutsis and Hutus have
reconciled after the genocide, should not be lectured on what was
needed to bring peace to eastern Congo.

"It's going to be the people and the countries in the region who
determine whether or not there is peace," U.S. Ambassador to the
United Nations Samantha Power told reporters after the meeting with

"The armed groups need to be eliminated and every country in the
region needs to use whatever leverage it has to get rid of those
groups," said Power. "That's the only hope the people in the region

Civil society leaders in North Kivu, where Goma is the capital, told
the council envoys that the Congolese government controlled only about
25 percent of the province, while the rest was in the hands of dozens
of armed groups.

African leaders signed a U.N.-mediated regional accord in February
aimed at ending two decades of conflict in eastern Congo. Rwanda and
Uganda both said they were committed to implementing the pact, U.N.
diplomats said.

Museveni said he had to deploy more troops on the Ugandan border with
Congo because of the threat posed by the ADF. The Ugandan government
says the ADF is allied to elements of Somalia's al Shabaab movement,
an al Qaeda-linked group.

Congolese forces, with the help of a new U.N. Intervention Brigade
that has a mandate to neutralize armed groups, successfully pushed M23
fighters away from Goma - a city of one million people - in August.
The military defeat forced M23 to return to peace talks being brokered
by the Ugandan government.

During the meeting with Museveni, Lyall Grant said envoys were told
"that there was a real chance of reaching agreement in the next few
days," but diplomats were wary of that prediction because there were
still outstanding issues to be resolved.

The United Nations said on Saturday that a third of child soldiers who
had escaped from M23 were lured from Rwanda with promises of cash,
jobs and education.

The United States, which has called on Rwanda to drop its support for
the M23 rebels, stepped up pressure on Kigali last week by moving to
block military aid over the recruitment of M23 child soldiers in its

"I don't expect you to hear me say that we are happy, we are not,"
said Rwandan Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo. "Rwanda does not
tolerate children being enrolled in any way near armed groups, not in
our own army, and that's Rwanda's position."

"Our belief is that once this crisis (in Congo) is resolved, once we
get rid of these armed groups then there will be no longer the issue
of child soldiers," she told reporters.

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Zimbabwe’s benchmark stocks index rose for a 15th day, its longest winning streak in a year

The 73-member Zimbabwe Industrial Index rose 0.7 percent to 209.83
yesterday, extending gains since Sept. 17 to 12 percent. Econet
Wireless Zimbabwe Ltd., a mobile-phone operator, is leading gains on
the gauge after an 18 percent increase since the rally started. Delta
Corporation Ltd., a unit of SABMiller Plc (SAB) that brews beer and
produces soft drinks with the largest weighting on the index, has
climbed 12 percent.

The gauge slumped to an eight-month low on Sept. 5, falling 24 percent
after reaching its highest level in more than four years on Aug. 1.

Zimbabwe’s economy will expand 5 percent in 2013 and 5.7 percent in
2014, according to the IMF. The southern African nation holds the
world’s second-biggest platinum and chrome reserves after South
Africa, as well as diamond, gold, iron ore and coal deposits.

Foreign demand for equities is strong and a primary driver of the
rally, Mike Barnes, the Johannesburg-based managing director of
Securities Africa, a brokerage, said in an e-mailed response to
questions. After the post-election sell-off, many stocks became
attractive to both local and foreign investors, he said.

read more

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +14.68% 2013

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 9.9977 [very much in the
middle of the Range]


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8935 [proving
very resilient]


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +8.02% 2013 [Equity Markets looking through the
near term 'Noise']


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +35.28%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +69.33% 2013


Migrating wildebeest in Serengeti, Tanzania. The plan would have
evicted 40,000 Masai pastoralists to make way for a hunting reserve
for Dubai's royal family. Photograph: Getty


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Target of US raid in Somalia planned Kenya attacks AP
Kenyan Economy

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) —
A U.S. official says the target of raid by Navy
SEALs in Somalia over the weekend was a Kenyan man named Abdulkadir
Mohamed Abdulkadir. A Kenyan government intelligence document names
him as the coordinator of other planned attacks.

The man, also known as Ikrima, was a known operator for the Somali
militant group al-Shabab.

The document says that foiled plots by Abdulkadir included plans to
target Kenya's parliament building and the U.N. office in Nairobi, as
well as an Ethiopian restaurant patronized by Somali government

It does not appear that Saturday's raid resulted in the killing or
capture of Abdulkadir. The U.S. official who confirmed the target of
the SEAL raid insisted on anonymity because he wasn't authorized to
discuss the matter.

Kenyan intelligence knows him simply as Ikrima. But his full name is
Mohamed Abdikadir Mohamed CNN


A recent Kenyan intelligence report that was leaked just after the
Westgate mall attack in Nairobi outlined several plots in which he was
allegedly involved. All of them involved targets in Kenya, and all the
attacks would have involved Kenyan citizens trained by Al-Shabaab.

Among those conspiracies, according to the leaked report, was a
planned attack on Mandera airport in Kenya's North Eastern province.
Ikrima was "directing an attack targeted at Mandera airport between
25th and 28th April 2013," according to the report. He was "being
assisted by Liif, an Al-Shabaab explosive expert," and the attack
would have involved 11 terrorists.

Another plot -- in 2011 -- involved dispatching one operative to a
safe house in Nairobi whose mission was "to train youth, lay down the
infrastructure for a major attack and await instructions." That
individual was later arrested at a house said to have contained
grenades, rifles and ammunition.

The Kenyan report also alleged that one of Ikrima's most ambitious
conspiracies had been sanctioned by al Qaeda in Pakistan. It
envisioned multiple attacks in Kenya at the end of 2011 and in early
2012 targeting the Kenyan parliament, United Nations offices in
Nairobi and Kenyan politicians. There was also "financial and
logistical support from a South African facilitation network."

It's not clear whether Ikrima had any role in the Westgate attack, but
given the involvement of some Kenyans in the siege, it seems likely.
Ikrima has been at the forefront of Al-Shabaab's efforts to recruit
and train Kenyans and other foreigners for Al-Shabaab -- and to
develop a Kenyan affiliate called al Hijrah.

Sources say Ikrima regularly changes his appearance -- at one point
having very long hair, and at another a moustache similar to former
Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's.

Morten Storm, a former informant who has worked for several Western
intelligence agencies, has told CNN that he developed a close
relationship with an Al-Shabaab figure called Ikrima between 2008 and
2012. He said he is confident that it's the same person who was
targeted over the weekend. Storm, who's Danish, described Ikrima as a
Somali-Kenyan Al-Shabaab operative who had spent time in Norway as a
refugee when he was young. Storm, who no longer works underground, has
shown CNN encrypted e-mails he exchanged with Ikrima over a period of
several years. Those communications show that Ikrima was involved in
developing contacts between members of Al-Shabaab and al Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen. They
included contacts between Ikrima and the America-born cleric Anwar
al-Awlaki, who was killed in a U.S. missile attack in September 2011.

This relationship was a source of great concern to Western
intelligence agencies as it evolved in 2009-11, because it linked the
most active and dangerous al Qaeda affiliate -- AQAP -- with an
emerging terror group in Somalia, a country with an extremely weak

One email from al-Awlaki to Storm, dated December 12, 2009, said: "The
brs (brothers) here eagerly want to establish connections with Somalia
so these brs could be a start," a reference to Ikrima and others.

Storm replied: "Ikrima from Somalia is still waiting for your
questions, he just told me, that he is planning to come over to your
place with some other guys."

It's not over, Somali terrorists say after mall attack that killed 67

Ikrima established contact with al-Awlaki but never ended up making
the trip to meet him in Yemen, according to Storm. Instead, he stayed
in East Africa, traveling between Kenya and Somalia, and becoming a
key handler for foreigners, including Westerners who wanted to join
Al-Shabaab, Storm said.

In March 2012, Ikrima warned Storm of growing pressure from the Kenyan
security apparatus. "So you need to be extra carefull (sic) they dont
get a single trace of anything coz they are now tracing a sister who
was a widow of one of the london 7/7 bomber," he wrote, a reference to
Samantha Lewthwaite, who is believed still to be in Kenya and is
wanted by Kenyan authorities.

Storm told CNN that in 2012, he was offered a substantial sum to help
Western intelligence agencies find Ikrima, known to his handlers at
that point as Ikrima al Muhajir. He said Ikrima was in Kismayo,
Somalia, when they last communicated in mid-2012, shortly before
Kenyan forces pushed Al-Shabaab out of the port city.

One of Ikrima's associates was Abdelkadir Warsame, who was detained by
the U.S. military while crossing by sea from Yemen to Somalia in April
2011. Warsame had been involved in establishing training and weapons
transfers with AQAP.

Another close associate of Ikrima, according to Storm, was Jehad
Serwan Mostafa, an American Al-Shabaab operative still at large. The
United States has offered a $5 million reward for information leading
to his capture.

Intelligence sources say Ikrima is thought to have first gone to
Somalia in 2006 and subsequently worked for two Kenyans prominent in
Al-Shabaab and al Qaeda: Harun Fazul and Saleh Nabhan.

Nabhan was a senior Kenyan al Qaeda operative, and he was among the
U.S. government's most wanted terrorists. He was suspected of helping
to orchestrate the 1998 East Africa Embassy bombings, a 2002 bombing
on a Mombasa resort, and a near simultaneous failed missile attack on
an Israeli airliner taking off from Mombasa's airport. Ikrima became
one of his trusted insiders, according to Storm.

Nabhan was killed in a raid by U.S. special operations forces on a
convoy traveling south along Somalia's coastal road in September 2009.
A younger relative of Nabhan, Omar Nabhan, was among the gunmen killed
at Westgate, Kenyan authorities say.

If Ikrima survived the weekend attack by U.S. special operations
forces and is able to continue operating, Kenyan authorities will be
concerned about his ability to continue developing al Hijrah cells in
the slums of Nairobi and Mombasa, Kenya.

A Kenyan expert on the group, Robert Ocholar, tells CNN that Kenyan
security services have driven al Hijrah underground but in the process
made the group more unpredictable and dangerous. Ocholar says he was
made aware in 2011 of a camp in Kenya's Eastern Province used by
Al-Shabaab as staging ground for recruits going to Somalia.

Ocholar says that in Kenya, there is more radicalization among young
Muslim Kenyans than among the sizable Somali community.

That in part may be down to the activities of Ikrima, aka Mohamed
Abdikadir Mohamed.

The Barawe raid, carried out by Navy SEALs, encountered heavy
resistance and was repulsed before it could reach its target


read more

Exclusive: How the SEAL raid on Somalia went bad
Kenyan Economy

The team of less than two dozen Navy SEALs from Seal Team 6 huddled in
one fast boat and headed toward the Somali shoreline under the cover
of darkness in the early hours of Saturday morning. Three more small
boats with additional SEALs flanked the assault team’s craft, to
provide back-up and assist with the planned extraction of an al
Shabaab warlord named Ikrima.
According to multiple U.S. military sources, the lead boat landed, and
the assault team hit the beach near the Southern Somali town of
Barawe, headed for the fortified seaside compound of their target.
U.S. intelligence had determined that Ikrima, one of  two terror
suspects targeted by the military in simultaneous raids thousands of
miles apart this weekend, planned the terror group’s operations
outside of Somalia.  The SEALs entered the compound and took the
positions they had selected based on the intelligence collected in
advance of the raid.

Then a lone al Shabaab fighter walked out into plain view, smoked a
cigarette, and went back inside, one source familiar with the details
of the raid said. The fighter played it cool, and gave no indication
that he had spotted the SEALs. But he came back out shooting, firing
rounds from an AK-47 assault rifle.

Soon the American commandos were under siege from the warlord’s
well-armed fighters. Gunfire swept toward their positions and grenades
began to rain down, multiple military sources said.

Several of the SEALs could see Ikrima through the windows of the
compound, but couldn’t get to him. The SEALs continued to take fire
while trying to find a way to get closer to their target.

And then the children came into the pictures on their scopes.

The suspect was barricaded and heavily protected by armed men, and now
children were intermingled among the fighters and in danger of dying.
Then the whole town of Barawe began to erupt and more armed fighters
were seen heading for Ikrima’s compound. Soon there would be fewer
than two dozen Americans against hundreds of Somalis.

The SEALs opted to withdraw.

U.S. military sources said they did so in stages, making their way
down the beach, asking and waiting for further orders. The team,
sources said, was still considering the option of returning to fight
some more.

As air support was called in, the SEALs headed back to the beach and
to their boat. A command decision had been made that the prize was not
worth the risk of casualties to civilians and SEALs.

The SEALs escaped from Barawe without any deaths or injuries,
according to sources and officials. And the target they sought to
capture is still at large.

The SEALs were members of the same unit that raided Osama bin Laden’s
compound in 2011, killing the al Qaeda leader.

“After the past few years and the bin Laden raid, everyone thinks
these operations are easy – they’re not,” said a senior military
official familiar with the operation. “The area doesn’t have the same
support network for us as Afghanistan and Iraq.”

The SEALs were “amazed” no one was hurt in the Somalia operation, said
the official.

In a statement, Pentagon press secretary George Little said that U.S.
military personnel had conducted a targeted operation against
Abdikadir Mohamed Abdikadir, a Kenyan of Somali origin. The statement
referred to him as a close associate of al Qaeda operatives involved
in the 1998 bombing of the U.S. embassy in Nairobi, Kenya and the 2002
attacks in Mombasa that killed Kenyans and Israelis.

“While the operation did not result in Ikrima’s capture,” said the
statement, “U.S. military personnel conducted the operation with
unparalleled precision and demonstrated that the United States can put
direct pressure on al Shabaab leadership at any time of our choosing.”

In a simultaneous operation 3,000 miles away, U.S. special forces
whisked al Qaeda suspect Abu Anas al-Libi off the streets of the
Libyan capital of Tripoli. He will be taken to the United States to
stand trial for his alleged role in the 1998 bombings of the American
embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the officials said.

read more

Kenya intelligence report shows detailed information about expected planned attacks WAPO
Kenyan Economy

SITUATION REPORT FOR SEPT. 21, 2012: “the following suspected Al
Shabaab operatives are in Nairobi and are planning to mount suicide
attacks on undisclosed date, targeting Westgate Mall and Holy Family
Basilica; Sheikh Abdiwelli Mohamed, Sheikh Hussein and Sheikh Hassan.
They are believed to be in possession of two suicide vests, twelve
(12) hand grenades and two (2) AK 47 rifles, and have already surveyed
the two targets. They are being assisted by Sheikh Hassan alias
Blackie of Majengo and Omar Ahmed Ali alias Jerry who are currently
staying near Mamba Petrol Station and Huruma Mosque along Juja Road.

SITUATION REPORT FOR FEB. 1, 2013: “Other reports indicate that by
late December 2012, Al- Shabaab was training female operatives to
engage in hijacking of aircrafts and crashing them as well as suicide
bombing. Upon completion they were to be sent to western countries and
to countries which had contributed troops to AMISOM (the African Union
peacekeeping mission to Somalia).

“The envisaged modus operandi include, but is not exclusive to,
Mumbai-attack style, where the operatives storm into a building with
guns and grenades and probably hold hostages.”

SITUATION REPORT FOR JUNE 25, 2013: Radicalization of Muslim youth is
also going on, especially in Mombasa and Nairobi. In Mombasa, Sheikh
Ibrahim Ismael Amru has been giving lectures at Masjid Minaa in
Kisauni, urging muslims to support Jihad.” (Gunmen killed the Muslim
cleric and three others in Mombasa on Thursday. The cleric’s
supporters alleged that the killing was a reprisal by Kenyan security
forces for the attack on Nairobi’s Westgate Mall.)

SITUATION REPORT FOR AUG. 26, 2013: “Some Al-Shabaab operatives whose
identities are yet to be established are planning to attack Times
Tower and Nyayo House buildings within Nairobi on an unspecified date.
They intend to use fire engines loaded with explosives to carry out
the attacks.”

The Nairobi All Share is at a record High @NSEKenya

History shows that the greatest bull markets climb ' a Wall of Worry.'

The Nairobi All Share has rallied +4.5809% since the 24th of September
and set an All Time Closing High Thursday and Friday Last week. In
fact, the All Share is now +36.938% in 2013. The Nairobi All Share has
posted a +89.967% since January 2012. Putting it plainly, we have been
in a fully fledged Bull Market for a while now. Alec Wilkinson
described 'Parkour' in the New Yorker in 2007;

''Parkour, a cousin to the French parcours means “route,” is a quasi
commando system of leaps, vaults, rolls, and landings designed to help
a person avoid or surmount whatever lies in his path—a vocabulary,
that is, to be employed in finding one’s way among obstacles. Parkour
goes over walls, not around them; it takes the stair rail, not the
stairs. The movements are performed at a dead run. The more efficient
and fluid the path they define, and the more difficult and harrowing
the terrain they cross, the more elegant the performance is considered
by the discipline’s practitioners.''

A young man who practices parkour is called a traceur, a woman is
called a Traceuse. Depending upon your Point of View and I have to
admit to seeing the Markets as a Woman, There is a Ballet like beauty
when things are going well but you can never and I mean never assume
anything. So, I venture that the @NSEKenya has been a Traceuse. There
is no more elegant a performance I can think of where a market takes a
look at #Westgate and rallies practically in a straight line to an All
Time High.

The Kenya Shilling is at 3 month highs, Safaricom which is +76.23% in
2013 [versus a +43.365% Return for Vodafone over the same period] ,
Kenya Commercial Bank +57.983% this year both reached all time Highs
last week. EABL is now +19.78% since the 1st of September and is
+28.301% in 2013 [a return twice as fast as its Parent Diageo], Kenya
Airways finally emerged from a long entrenched Price Disequilibrium
and has rallied +8.8808% since Sep 27th.

As Lefevre said ''At the same time I realise that the best of all
tipsters, the most persuasive of all salesmen, is the tape.''

There is simply no Argument to be had with the Tape.  And Do You
realise who propelled this market over the last 2 weeks? It was
International Investors who swooped in looking for lines of Stock in
the Big Cap Counters. International Demand has been the defining
characteristic of the Bull Market in Nairobi and across Sub Saharan
Africa. Ghana is +68.76% this Year, Nigeria +35.53%. Some of this SSA
Hinterland outperformance has been because of a degree of Disillusion
with the two historical Africa gateways Egypt +7.28% and South Africa
+15.21% in 2013.

The Point is International Investors have been at a near zero
weighting when it comes to SSA and are raising that to a little above
zero. They are nowhere near neutral. This has proven a relentless and
rising Tide. It also has created a massive Outperformance in the SSA
Big Caps and this is evidenced in the Nairobi All Share versus the
NSE20 Index Divergence.

The Bull market's Bona Fides have been established again over the last
ten trading sessions and in the sheer Violence of the Run Higher.
#Westgate did not dent the #Kenyatakeoff. That is what the Tape is
saying loud and clear.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 85.397 [4 month Highs]

By the 1300 GMT close of the market, commercial banks quoted the
shilling at 85.10/30 to the dollar, a level not seen since June 16,
and 1 percent stronger than Friday's close of 85.95/86.15.
The shilling has firmed 2.5 percent since mid-September, lifted mainly
by a liquidity squeeze in the money markets and sustained portfolio

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +38.47775% 2013

The Nairobi All Share is now +38.47775% in 2013 and incredibly has
rallied 5.374% and with some Violence since the #Westgate Event.

#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica 's Bureau in #Nairobi on the 19th Floor 14 days ago

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +18.098% in 2013

The Nairobi NSE20 Index is +18.098% in 2013 and 149.91 points and
2.979% below its 2013 Closing High

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

read more

On November 3, a rare total solar eclipse is expected to occur and Marsabit is among the best places from where to watch the spectacle.
Kenyan Economy

The eclipse is expected to occur at the Alia bay located within the
Sibiloi National Park and shimmer across Lake Turkana for 15 seconds.

"It is the first time that the epicenter of the eclipse is coming into
the cradle of mankind. We hope this event will bring many people to
Koobi Fora,” National Museums of Kenya managing director Idle Farah

read more

N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share accelerated 1.705% higher to set an All Time
Closing High for the 4th consecutive Session.
The Nairobi All Share is +40.839% in 2013.
The All Share has rallied +7.1715% since Westgate and over 12 Sessions.
The Run Higher has been relentless and not to be trifled with.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index ran 49.36 points higher to close at 4930.79.
The NSE20 is +19.283% in 2013 and 1.988% off its 2013 and Multi Year
High set earlier this Year.
Safaricom +86.138% in 2013, KCB +67.22% in 2013, Equity Bank +56.842%
all set All Time Closing Highs.
Breadth continued to improve with 30 Winners today and only 7 Losers.
The Shilling was last trading with an 84.00 handle and at more than 4
month highs.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Eagaads rallied 9.09% to close at 24.00.
Limuru Tea rallied +8.7% to close at 500.00 and traded 400 shares.
Limuru Tea reported a 2,340% improvement in H1 2013 Earnings Per
Sasini Tea and Coffee firmed 2.59% to close at 13.85 and traded 93,700 shares.

Limuru Tea H1 2013 Earnings Release and share price data

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange and rallied +3.296% to set a Fresh All Time Closing High of
9.40. Safaricom traded a 9.20-9.50 range where 9.50 is an All Time
High Print. Safaricom traded 28.031m shares worth 263.588m which
represented 26.466% of the Total Volume traded. Safaricom is +86.138%
in 2013.

TPS Serena rebounded 3.333% to close at 46.50 on light trading of
3,500 shares. TPS Serena had gotten oversold on thin volumes and has
more room to the Upside.

Uchumi pushed 1.2% higher to close at 21.00 and traded 374,800 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank rallied +4.929% to set a Fresh All Time High of 37.25 and
on heavy volume of 6.116m shares worth 227.831m. Equity Bank is
+56.842% in 2013.
Kenya Commercial Bank rallied +2.0512% to set an An all Time Closing
High of 49.75 and traded 2.998m shares worth 149.301m. Kenya
Commercial Bank traded shares at a session High of 50.00. Kenya
Commercial Bank is +67.22% in 2013.
COOP Bank rallied +2.41% to close at 17.00 and traded 6.117m shares
worth 104.065m.
CFC Stanbic Bank rallied +3.9% to close at 80.00 and traded 72,000 shares.
Barclays Bank firmed 1.436% to close at 17.65 and traded 198,800 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL firmed 0.8775% to close at 344.00 and traded 217,900 shares worth
75.165m. EABL has rallied +21.126% since September 1st.

Total Kenya rallied a further +6.818% to close at 23.50 and was
trading session Highs of 24.00 +9.09% for most of the session. Total
Kenya traded 95,800 shares. Total Kenya is +29.12% in October.

Total Kenya share price data here

KenolKobil closed unchanged at 8.00 and traded 3.716m shares worth
29.751m. KenolKobil was trading at 8.25 +3.13% at the Closing Bell.

East African Portland Cement ran up +8.2% to close at 66.00 and traded


Home Afrika rallied by the Daily Maximum of +9.6% to close at 6.85 and
traded 287,000 shares all at that Level.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2013

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