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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 09th of October 2013
 
Morning
Africa

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#Mindspeak 2013 RICH TV
Africa


@DReynders @HabilOlaka @patriciaithau1 @johngithongo @MaggieIreri

It was a Pleasure meeting Bill Russo of McKinsey yesterday and I thank
Ian Donald @Nestle for the Introduction.

read more


Rich Interviews in 2013 RICH TV
Africa


Charlie Robertson Renaissance Capital's Global Chief Economist.
Prof.Njuguna Ndung'u Governor, Central Bank of Kenya
Ayisi Makatiani-Managing Partner-Fanisi Capital
One on One with EABL Group Managing Director and CEO; Charles Ireland
One on one with chief financial officer @KenyaAirways- Alex Mbugua
One on one with @Kenyaairways #KQ C.E.O Dr. Titus Naikuni
 interview with Safaricom C.E.O @BobCollymore
Interview with @KCBGroup CEO Joshua Oigara

Macro Thoughts

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The Black Swan Nanyuki
Africa


Home Thoughts

We have a Tuesday Boys Night at @BobCollymore 's, And yesterday we are
all quite worried about whether the Host would be there. I really
think the Situation is unconscionable.

read more


AU's Zuma asks U.N. Security Council about Kenya ICC deferral Reuters
Law & Politics


African Union chief Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma asked U.N. Security Council
envoys on Tuesday how they might react if asked to defer the
international trials of Kenya's leaders so they can deal with the
aftermath of the Nairobi mall attack, diplomats said.

African leaders are due to meet in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa
this weekend to take a common stance on whether to join Kenya's
planned pull-out from the International Criminal Court (ICC) over the
prosecution of its leaders.

Zuma suggested that the AU could decide to formally ask the Security
Council to defer trials of President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy
William Ruto, U.N. diplomats said, speaking on the condition of
anonymity. They were attending a meeting between Zuma and council
ambassadors in Addis Ababa.

Zuma said African leaders felt that after the attack by al
Qaeda-linked group al Shabaab on the Westgate center in Nairobi last
month, Kenyatta and Ruto needed to stay in Kenya instead of travelling
to The Hague for their trials, the diplomats said. At least 67 people
were killed in the mall assault.

Kenyatta and Ruto face charges of crimes against humanity related to
the violence that followed Kenya's 2007 elections, in which 1,200
people died. Both have voluntarily complied with all the court's
summonses.

Ruto's trial started last month and Kenyatta's trial is due to start
in November. The cases have stirred an increasing backlash against The
Hague-based court from some African governments, which regard it as a
tool of Western powers.

Several Security Council envoys responded to Zuma by saying the issue
of impunity was very important and that if African leaders had any
perception of bias by the International Criminal Court then it should
be discussed at the court's Assembly of State Parties, not the
Security Council, diplomats said.

The Assembly of State Parties, made up of the 122 members of the
court, is due to convene in November.

Council envoys told Zuma they would consider any AU request but noted
the council had already turned down a previous deferral request in
2011 and rejected a request in May for the cases to be terminated
because the council had no such power.

"There's no particular reason to think there would be a different
outcome (now)," said one senior U.N. council envoy, speaking on
condition of anonymity.

The Security Council is able to defer International Criminal Court
proceedings for one year under Article 16 of the Rome Statute that
established The Hague-based court a decade ago. The council would need
to adopt a resolution to do that.

In May the AU backed a request by Nairobi for the trials to be
referred back to Kenya, on the ground that the ICC hearings risked
raising ethnic tensions and destabilizing its economy.

Conclusions

Non-Cooperation is something more than a Tail Risk.

@BARACKOBAMA AND THE DEFAULT PIRATES
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/closeread/2013/10/shutdown-debt-ceiling-obama-and-the-default-pirates.html

"We've got a lot of things going for us," President Obama said at a
press conference Tuesday. The economy was looking up; people were
working, oil was flowing, life would be not so bad but for the
"uncertainty caused by just one week of this nonsense." Nonsense was
one of the kinder words he had for the government shutdown--"We can't
make extortion routine"--and the possibility that Congress would let
the United States default on its debts, about nine days from now. He
called that an "economic shutdown."

Conclusions

The Impairment if the US fails [notwithstanding that it is a kind of
self-harm thing] will be a permanent one.  Aly-Khan Satchu

"There is nothing that will shake the commitment of the United States
to the rebalance to Asia that President @BarackObama is leading,"
Kerry said at the APEC CEO summit on Oct. 7

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-09/major-powers-seek-sway-at-apec-lured-by-growth-potential.html

The meeting was overshadowed by the absence of Obama, who stayed home
to deal with the partial government shutdown, raising questions about
the U.S.'s commitment to its so-called military and economic pivot at
a time China has become more assertive in Asia.

"I'm sure the Chinese don't mind that I'm not there right now in the
sense that, you know, there are areas where we have differences and
they can present their point of view and not get as much of a
pushback," Obama said at a White House news conference yesterday.

"Japan is determined to become deeply interlaced with the economies of
APEC while sparing no effort to move the surge of our activities
further forward still," Abe said.

Conclusions

The Captain @BarackObama has to lead his Pivot from the Front.

@Aiww's The Snake The Pivot to Asia which is really the encirclement of China
http://www.twitpic.com/bdl6zk

Shootout at the APEC free-trade corral By Pepe Escobar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-03-081013.html

What a photo - yet another instance of Bali working its magic. Chinese
President Xi Jinping leads a "Happy Birthday" for Russian President
Vladimir Putin, with Indonesian President Susilo Yudhoyono on acoustic
guitar. You know who is not in the picture - he's in shutdown
containment mode. US Think Tankland protestations notwithstanding,
there could not be a more graphic reminder of the emerging multipolar
order.

As predicted, China was the star of the APEC show. It's never enough
to remember that the 21-member APEC accounts for no less than half of
the globe's economic output and trade.

MSR would turn the "Golden Decade" between China and ASEAN into a
"Diamond Decade". China is the 10-member ASEAN's largest trading
partner (over US$400 billion in 2012), with mutual investment at over
$100 billion and growing. Beijing sees this coming "Diamond Decade" as
the bulk of the political/economic solution for the so far intractable
territorial problems in the South China Sea, which pit China against
four ASEAN members; Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei.

China arrests 110 in Xinjiang for spreading online rumours BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-24444505

It mentioned the cases of some of those arrested. They include a
primary school teacher in Kashgar and a farmer in Hotan.

The school teacher created and uploaded four video clips to his
personal website in May, it said.

They contained materials which promoted religious extremism, local
police were quoted as saying, without giving details.

He gave out the links to his site on Weibo, China's equivalent of Twitter.

The videos received 1,500 views and were posted 11,000 times on Weibo
before they were discovered and removed by police.

The farmer in Hotan uploaded 2GB of e-books containing separatist
materials to a site which he created, the paper said.

They received more than 30,000 visits and were reposted 600 times and
downloaded 14,000 times before being discovered.

He has been charged with instigating separatism, the paper adds.

Conclusions

XinJiang is a Tinderbox and China must be afraid of Xinjiang becoming
like Afghanistan did to Russia.

read more



"Where you've got active plots and active networks, we're going to go after them," Obama said. "We're not going to farm out our defense." Reuters
Law & Politics


The capture of Liby and a failed attempt by U.S. commandos to capture
an Islamist militant in Somalia offered evidence the United States was
willing to use ground troops to seize wanted militants in unstable
African countries where they operate.

The capture in Tripoli came the same weekend that a Navy SEAL team
swooped into Somalia in an operation targeting a senior al Shabaab
figure known as Ikrima, described by U.S. officials as a foreign
commander for the organization.

Obama, who ordered the SEAL raid that killed Osama bin Laden in
Pakistan in 2011, approved both operations, but the White House said
the timing was "coincidental."

The Somalia raid was designed to capture Ikrima, but the SEAL team
broke off the mission when it became apparent that capturing him would
not be feasible without a heavy risk of civilian casualties and to the
SEAL team itself, officials said.

"The fact is it was a failure," said @SenJohnMcCain  "The fact is that
there was an intelligence failure there. Otherwise the mission would
have been completed."

read more


Thich Quang Duc burns himself to death in Saigon to protest persecution by South Vietnam, on June 11, 1963.
Law & Politics


"You could tell from his expression that he was in terrible pain, but
he never cried out. And he burned for, oh, I suppose, ten minutes or
so; it seemed like an eternity ... A fire truck arrived and tried to
get through the circle, but a couple of the monks dashed under the
front wheels and lay down on the pavement, so that it could advance
only by rolling over them, and all this while I was taking pictures of
course. The only thing that sort of keeps you going in war or in times
of crisis like that is having something to  do..." --Malcolm Browne,
from an interview with Hal Buell, April 21, 1998, for the AP Corporate
Archives Oral History Program.

read more


Growth worldwide will be 2.9 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year, the IMF said in a report released today in Washington, compared with July predictions of 3.1 percent for 2013 and 3.8 percent for 2014
International Trade


The International Monetary Fund cut its global outlook for this year
and next as capital outflows further weaken emerging markets and
warned that a U.S. government default could "seriously damage" the
world economy.

Growth worldwide will be 2.9 percent this year and 3.6 percent next
year, the IMF said in a report released today in Washington, compared
with July predictions of 3.1 percent for 2013 and 3.8 percent for
2014. It sees emerging economies growing 4.5 percent this year, 0.5
percentage point less than three months ago, as projections were
reduced for China, Mexico,India and Russia.

"Advanced economies are gradually strengthening" while "growth in
emerging-market economies has slowed," IMF chief economist Olivier
Blanchard wrote in a foreword to the World Economic Outlook report.
"This confluence is leading to tensions, with emerging-market
economies facing the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter
global financial conditions."

The IMF's forecasts factor in a short U.S. government shutdown and an
agreement on the nation's debt-limit before an Oct. 17 deadline. A
stalemate that causes a default "could seriously damage the global
economy," the fund said.

"The effects of any failure to repay the debt would be felt right
away, leading to potentially major disruptions in financial markets,
both in the U.S. and abroad," Blanchard said during a press
conference. "We see this as a tail risk, with low probability, but,
were it to happen, it would have major consequences."

Japan, where the IMF maintained forecasts of 2 percent growth this
year and 1.2 percent next year

The IMF raised its forecast for the 17-country euro area to a
contraction of 0.4 percent this year compared with a 0.6 percent
decline in July. It now expects an expansion of 1 percent next year
instead of 0.9 percent three months ago.

The fund cut the forecast for China to 7.6 percent this year, from 7.8
percent in July and to 7.3 percent in 2014 from 7.7 percent.

"Without fundamental reform to rebalance the economy toward
consumption and stimulate productivity growth through deregulation,
growth is likely to slow considerably," the fund said of the world's
second-largest economy.

Russia's growth model also seems "exhausted," according to the report,
which sees growth at 1.5 percent this year instead of 2.5 percent in
July and 3 percent next year, from 3.3 percent.

India will grow 3.8 percent this year, down from a July prediction of
5.6 percent, and 5.1 percent in 2014, from 6.3 percent. Mexico will
expand 1.2 percent this year from 2.9 percent in July, and its outlook
was cut to 3 percent next year from 3.2 percent.

Interest rates on one-month U.S. government debt hit a 5-year peak on
Tuesday Yahoo Finance

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-u-short-rates-202732084.html

The one-month T-bill rate rose above the one-month London interbank
offered rate, or LIBOR, for the first time at least 12 years,
according to Reuters data.

One-month U.S. yields were at 0.36 percent, nearing the same yield as
two-year notes, at 0.37 percent.

The yield stood at 0.083 at the start of the month

"In our opinion markets are a little too complacent. The downside
risks are horrendous if there is no resolution and the debt ceiling is
breached," said Kevin Corrigan

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-u-short-rates-202732084.html

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3545
Dollar Index 80.18
Japan Yen 97.38
Swiss Franc 0.9073
Pound 1.6038
Aussie 0.9439  It touched 94.84 cents yesterday, the highest since Sept. 19.
India Rupee 61.855
South Korea Won 1074.50
Brazil Real 2.2084
Egypt Pound 6.8911
South Africa Rand 9.9591

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.18
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

President Barack Obama will nominate Janet Yellen as chairman of the
Federal Reserve, which would put the world's most powerful central
bank in the hands of a key architect of its unprecedented stimulus
program and the first female leader in its 100-year history

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 97.38
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3545
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1319.05 [Prices climbed to $1,330.57
yesterday, the highest level since Oct. 1, before ending lower.]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Gold slumped 21 percent this year on expectations the Fed will taper
its $85 billion-a-month of bond-buying as the economy improves.

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 103.51
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.Z13.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

A Great Deal depends on whether the Inflection Point in Iran US
Relations marks a New Normal or whether There will be a Reversion to
the Mean.

read more



Bagfuls of Cash Show Iran Currency Squeeze Behind Nuclear Thaw Bloomberg
Frontier Markets


When Mohammad-Reza needed parts for his heater company in Iran last
month, he carried a bagful of 500-euro notes on a plane to Dubai and
paid his German supplier over coffee in a hotel lobby. Often, he says,
he has to use even riskier channels.

Mohammad-Reza, who declined to give his surname for fear of reprisals,
says he uses informal currency transfers called hawala to get around
the sanctions that cut Iran off from the global banking system.
"Everything's based on mutual trust," he said in an interview in his
Tehran office, describing a widely used network of unofficial
middle-men. "The currency shops in Tehran don't give you a receipt,
and it's not clear when the supplier in Germany, the Czech Republic or
South Korea will receive it. Sometimes money gets lost in
transmission."

Like the Iranian economy, Mohammad-Reza's business has shrunk under
the impact of the trade and currency curbs imposed by the U.S. and
allies to restrain the Islamic republic's nuclear program. Iran's oil
exports have plunged by more than half, slashing government revenue.
President Hassan Rouhani described the recession as a national
security issue during the campaign that culminated in his election in
June.

In his first months in office, Rouhani is pushing for a thaw in ties
with the West that would help him meet election pledges of reviving
the economy. There's a direct link between that diplomatic shift and
the impact of the sanctions, said Afshin Molavi, senior research
fellow at the New America Foundation inWashington.

"Iran is in a spider web of sanctions that have hurt its economy, and
Iranian leaders know it," Molavi said in a phone interview. "The pain
was felt more acutely this year, and this was something that made
Iranian leaders more conciliatory."

Talks between Iran and world powers are due to resume in Geneva next
week, amid optimism sparked by Rouhani's trip to New York last month.
Oil is down more than 6 percent from a 2 1/2-year high a month ago, as
expectations of détente with Iran followed the easing of tensions over
Syria.

While in the U.S., Rouhani had a historic telephone conversation with
President Barack Obama, and told the Washington Post he's eager to
resolve the nuclear dispute within six months.

That timescale may have been put forward with the risk of an economic
crisis in mind, saidMark Dubowitz, president of the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies, which advocates tougher sanctions on Iran. The
U.S. House of Representatives voted in August for the restrictions to
be tightened, though the measure hasn't gone into effect.

''Rouhani has limited time to deliver on his promise to stabilize the
economy," said Dubowitz. "Iran is facing a serious foreign exchange
crisis."

Dubowitz, together with Rachel Ziemba at New York-based research firm
Roubini Global Economics, published a study of Iran's currency
resources last week that found reserves will probably drop to about
$70 billion by the end of this year. Iran's central bank said in July
that it had reserves of more than $100 billion.

What's more, Iran probably only has immediate access to $20 billion,
covering less than three months of imports, Dubowitz and Ziemba said.
About $50 billion is tied up in countries that buy Iranian oil, such
as China and Turkey, and can only be spent there under the sanctions
regime.

Iran gets about $3.4 billion of oil revenue a month, and almost half
of that is accumulating in escrow accounts in those countries,
suggesting that Iran is struggling to find goods there that it wants
to import, Dubowitz and Ziemba said.

With trade links to Europe shut off, the shift in Iran's imports is
visible in the shopping streets of Tehran. The Amin-Hozor neighborhood
is full of appliance stores that mostly stock Chinese goods, with the
European brands that Iranians once preferred becoming increasingly
scarce. "It seems like there's no other option in Iran," said Akbar,
55, the owner of one of them, as he slapped price tags on washing
machines and dishwashers.

Iran is classified as a mid-income country by the World Bank. Its
per-capita economic output of $13,000 at purchasing-power parity is
double Egypt's and only about 15 percent below Turkey's, according to
the IMF. On that measure, it ranked 78th among 183 countries,
according to IMF data from April.

Living standards are sliding, though, and official data may conceal
the decline. Rouhani's new economy minister, Ali Tayyeb Nia, said last
month that conditions are far worse than previous President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad had let on.

The rial lost more than half its dollar value in the 12 months before
Rouhani's election in June, though it has since rebounded about 20
percent. Gross domestic product shrank 5.4 percent in the year through
March, and Tayyeb Nia said last month that it may take as much as four
years to fix the economy.

At the current rate of decline, not much of Mohammad-Reza's business
would be left by then. Smoking cigarettes as he paces around his
office, he says his sales are down to about 200,000 euros ($272,000),
from more than 600,000 euros three years ago.

Mohammad-Reza said he delivers the cash to suppliers himself when he
can, citing trips to Seoul and Frankfurt last year as well as Dubai.
Otherwise, he relies on money transfers that "take a long time and
aren't reliable."

"Even for small transactions, I need to spend a lot of time and energy
going through different channels," he said.

Conclusions

The US and its Allies have waged a sophisticated and largely
asymmetric cyber, Psyops, Assassination and currency War on Iran and
its been highly effective.

A foreign exchange trader counts Iranian rial notes at a currency
exchange in Tehran, Iran. Photographer: Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-08/bagfuls-of-cash-show-iran-currency-squeeze-behind-nuclear-thaw.html

read more


BRICS-Africa trade update Africa Macro by Simon Freemantle*, Jeremy Stevens* · 08 October 2013
Africa


Last year BRICS-Africa trade reached USD301 billion (bn), up 3.8% from
USD290bn in 2011. While still impressive, seen in the context of the
general rise in BRICS-Africa trade since 2003, last year's lift is
fairly modest. And, with the exception of the generalised trade
retreat in 2009, is the lowest annual increase in BRICS-Africa trade
since 2000.
Thus far in 2013, a renewed and dramatic annual rise in BRICS-Africa
trade seems unlikely: in the first six months of this year
BRICS-Africa trade amounted to USD172bn, up modestly from USD165bn at
the same point in 2012.
Contrary to early estimates (which suggested that China-Africa trade
had reached USD200bn in 2012) last year China-Africa trade reached
USD169bn, a 1.8% lift from USD166bn in 2011. Interestingly, though, in
the first six months of 2013 China-Africa trade totalled USD105bn,
compared to USD79bn in the first half of 2011.
A modest decline in Chinese demand for base and precious metals from
Africa contrasts with a 15% increase in imports of African crude oil -
much of which has come from Angola.
In 2012 India-Africa trade lifted by 11% from USD63.1bn to USD70.3bn -
boosted by a steady rise in both Indian imports from Africa (from
USD39.8bn to USD43bn) as well as Indian exports to Africa (USD23.3bn
to USD27.3bn). Last year India accounted for one-quarter of total
BRICS-Africa trade, up from one-fifth in 2007.
Indian exports to Africa are rising, and diversifying: Over the course
of the five years between 2007 and 2012, Indian exports to Africa grew
by 125%, from USD12.4bn to USD27.3bn.
Of all the BRICS nations, South Africa's trade with Africa grew the
most swiftly in 2012 - advancing by 15% from USD22.4bn to USD25.7bn.
Driving imports, South Africa is beginning to source more of its crude
oil from the continent: last year, 42% of South Africa's crude oil
imports came from the continent, up from just 15% in 2005. And exports
to the continent continue to provide a crucial counterweight to still
weak demand in core advanced economies: in 2012 South African exports
of machinery and vehicles to the rest of Africa grew 25% and 35%,
respectively.
Last year, Brazil-Africa trade dipped by 5% to USD26.5bn. Again, crude
oil imports are shaping: In 2012 Brazil imported 6.5% less crude oil
from Africa. Brazil's rising role as an exporter of soft commodities
to Africa remains unmoved, though: in 2012, Brazil exported USD4bn
worth of sugar to Africa (60% of the continent's total estimated sugar
imports), and USD1.8bn worth of meat (35% of total African imports).
In 2012 Russia-Africa trade amounted to USD9.4bn, down 14% from
USD10.9bn in 2011. Russian exports to Africa in the same time frame
dropped from USD8.2bn to USD7.2bn, and its imports from Africa from
USD2.7bn to USD2.2bn.

African governments have issued $8 billion (R80bn) worth of foreign
bonds this year, the highest level ever, according to Moody's
Investors Service.

http://www.iol.co.za/business/international/africa-s-foreign-bond-issues-hit-record-8bn-1.1588473#.UlPl478RyX1

Moody's senior analyst Aurelien Mali identified the issuers as Egypt
(which carries a Caa1 credit rating with a negative outlook), Ghana
(B1 stable), Nigeria (Ba3 stable) and South Africa (Baa1 negative),
and one debut issuer, Rwanda.

Of these countries, only South Africa has an investment grade rating
while the others are speculative grade.

According to Moody's, 14 out of the 54 African countries have issued
foreign currency bonds on global markets.

"With the exception of Tunisia and Morocco, which issued international
debt in the 1990s, and South Africa, which has a highly developed
domestic capital market, sovereign issuances in Africa actually
started in 2001 when Egypt issued its first bond," Moody's noted.

"International issuance started even more recently when Seychelles
issued its first euro bond in 2006, followed in 2007 by Congo, Gabon
and Ghana," Mali said.

And he noted: "According to available data, the region's bond
issuances since 2011 have been oversubscribed by an average multiple
of six."

He predicted that Senegal (which is rated B1 stable) would also return
to international markets by the end of the year.

"In addition, Moody's has identified six countries in sub-Saharan
Africa that it believes will issue inaugural bonds in the
international markets within the next few years: Angola (Ba3
positive), Cameroon, Kenya (B1 stable), Tanzania, Uganda and
Mozambique (B1 stable).

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +13.44%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 9.9546
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8911
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +7.80%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +35.46%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +71.45% 2013 [Fresh
Record Closing High]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Uganda Seeks Investor to Build $2.5 Billion Oil Refinery
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-08/uganda-seeks-investor-to-build-2-5-billion-oil-refinery.html

Uganda is looking for a lead investor to develop a refinery estimated
to cost $2.5 billion, two weeks after issuing its first production
license to China National Offshore Oil Corp. as it seeks to exploit
reserves.

The investor, either a company or a group of them, will be named by
April and will take an interest of as much as 60 percent in the
facility, which is proposed to have capacity of 60,000 barrels a day,
Robert Kasande, an assistant commissioner in the Energy Ministry, said
today by phone from Entebbe, near the capital, Kampala.

The government's stake in the facility will account for as much as 40
percent, and the nation has invited Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and
Tanzania, which are partner countries in the East African Community,
to buy an interest of as much 10 percent in the facility from Uganda,
he said.

Landlocked Uganda is also negotiating with oil companies to build a
pipeline to the Kenyan port of Lamu, according to the Energy Ministry
said. President Yoweri Museveni and his Kenyan counterpart Uhuru
Kenyatta agreed to develop the link in June, saying it would also have
a loop to South Sudan.

Uganda has sub-Saharan Africa's biggest oil reserves after Nigeria,
Angola and South Sudan, according to the International Monetary Fund.

read more


Kenya's mobile phone chiefs questioned by police BBC
Kenyan Economy


Kenyan police have questioned the bosses of four mobile phone
companies over their firms' registration of activated mobile phone
lines.

It followed reports that unregistered mobile phones were used by
militant Islamists who attacked the Westgate shopping mall in the
capital, Nairobi, two weeks ago.

The four were threatened with arrest on Monday after officials accused
them of selling unregistered SIM cards.

They denied the allegation.

But in a BBC interview, Kenya's communications chief Francis Wangusi
said police had evidence to the contrary.

"The denial can be there but the fact is that unregistered SIM cards
are still on their networks and police have proven that," he told the
BBC's Focus on Africa radio programme.

Conclusions

The Approach the Government has taken in this situation speaks to a
Pattern of Behaviour [and this Pattern has been seen in particularly
sharp relief of late] which speaks to a 'Chippiness'

There are a number of Ambassadors who are unable to present their
credentials, for example.

I would advise a much more Sun Tzu Approach.

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."
-- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

"All warfare is based on deception."
-- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

"Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer"
-- Sun Tzu

read more


Kwale commissioning advances - Base
Kenyan Economy


PERTH (miningweekly.com) - Mineral sands developer Base Resources has
started ore processing at its wet concentrator at the Kwale project,
in Kenya.

The miner said that first ore from the central dune had been taken
through the dozer trap mining unit and wet concentrator, two weeks
after water commissioning and control logic testing.

Over the coming weeks, mining and processing rates would be ramped up
and stockpiles would be built up ahead of the commissioning of the
mineral separation plant (MSP).

Base told shareholders that construction of the MSP was now at its
final stages, with the commissioning of the ilmenite and rutile
circuits, and the start of concentrator processing expected in
November. This would be followed by the zircon circuit in December.

The bulk shipments of finished product would start in January.

The Kwale project would produce 4.7-million tons of final product over
a 13-year life-of-mine.

read more


Base Resources commences ore processing in Kenya
Kenyan Economy


For more details ABN is joined by Tim Carstens, CEO,Base Titanium.

read more


#Mindspeak with Tim Carstens Base Resources RICH TV
Kenyan Economy


#Mindspeak The Post Show with the Australia High Commissioner
Geoff Tooth and Tim Carstens CEO Base Resources

http://www.twitpic.com/9g9ujg

Kenya: The next big hitter in African oil exportation?
http://business-reporter.co.uk/2013/10/kenya-the-next-big-hitter-in-african-oil-exportation/

British company Tullow Oil announced in late September that drilling
work had revealed the presence of oil in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokone
sandstone reservoirs. The company will now carry out further tests.

For the company, which began drilling in Kenya last year, this is the
fourth consecutive discovery of oil there. Earlier this year, the firm
decided there was enough oil for commercial exploitation of reserves
in the country's Turkana area.

In a statement, Angus McCoss, Tullow's exploration director, said:
"This success is further evidence of the exceptional oil potential of
our East African Rift Basin acreage. We are now increasing the pace of
exploration in Kenya, aiming for 12 wells over the next 12 months."

Keith Hill, CEO at Canadian firm Africa Oil, which is working with
Tullow Oil in the region, said: "We are thrilled with the 100 per cent
success rate of the drilling to programme to date in northern Kenya,
and with 10 additional leads and prospects in this basin, we can
expect additional discoveries in the future.

E-Money [has happened], geothermal energy [is happening], crude oil
[will happen] are all contributing to quite an aphrodisiac.
23-JUL-2012

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX2307.pdf

E-Money [has happened], geothermal energy [is happening], crude oil
[will happen] are all contribut- ing to quite an aphrodisiac.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 84.955
http://j.mp/5jDOot

07-OCT-2013 ::  THE NAIROBI ALL SHARE IS AT AN ALL TIME HIGH
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/039NSX0710.pdf

The bull market's bona fides have been established again over the last
ten trading ses- sions and in the sheer violence of the run higher.
Westgate did not dent the Kenya take off. That is what the tape is
saying loud and clear.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg   +40.839% in 2013.
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

The All Share has rallied +7.1715% since Westgate and over 12 Sessions

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +19.283% in 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share snapped a winning Sequence where it had set 4
consecutive All Time Closing Highs and eased 0.583% to close at
132.82.
The All Share had accelerated +7.1715% and with some Violence since
Westgate and over 12 Sessions through this morning and was overdue a
Correction.
The All Share remains +40.01% in 2013.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index firmed 15.23 points to close at 4946.02
The Nairobi NSE20 is +19.67% in 2013 and the index is now within 84
points of its 2013 and Multi Year Closing High from earlier in the
Year.
The Divergence between the All Share and the Nairobi NSE20 speaks to
the Extreme International Buy Side Demand for the Big Cap Counters.
Equity Turnover remained brisk at 795.45m.
The Shilling backed up have traded yesterday with an 84.00 handle and
was last at 85.498. The Shilling is coming off 4 month Highs
There were 27 Winners and 12 Losers at the Securities Exchange today.
Safaricom -3.191%, KCB -1.00% and Equity Bank -2.68% all corrected off
All time Closing Highs.
The Equity Market is displaying better Breadth and the Rally continues
to broaden out.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Eagaads firmed a further +4.17% to close at 25.00.
Sasini Tea and Coffee firmed +2.89% to close at 14.25 and traded
134,900 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased 3.191% off a Record High to close at 9.10 and traded a
9.10-9.40 range and 25.058m shares worth 229.025m. Safaricom had
rallied 10.588% since October 1st and was +86.13% in 2013 through this
morning in what was a Parabolic Rally. Safaricom was overdue a Pause
for Breath. The Bull Price Trend remains in tact and the correction
will be orderly as has been every correction since January 2012 when
Safaricom entered a Bull Market.

Safaricom share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D

Marshalls reported FY Earnings after the Closing Bell and narrowed the
FY Loss for 2013 to 110.029m from a FY Loss of 165.527m in 2012.
Marshalls did not trade.

Marshall EA FY 2013 Earnings Release
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Marshalls%20(EA)%20Ltd%20-%20End%20of%20year%20results.pdf

Car and General traded a 1,000 shares at 23.50 +9.3% and was the 2nd
biggest Gainer after Home Afrika at the Securities Exchange today.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank traded 2nd at the Exchange and eased 1% off a
Record Closing High to close at 49.25. KCB traded 2.24m shares worth
110.462m. Kenya Commercial Bank had rallied +67.22% since the start of
the Year through this morning and was overdue a correction.
Equity Bank eased 2.68% off a Record Closing High to close at 36.25
and traded 2.326m shares worth 84.371m. Equity Bank had a Demand
Supply Imbalance at the Close in the Ratio of 11 versus 26.
Barclays Bank firmed +1.98% to close at 18.00 and was trading at
session highs of 18.15 +2.83% at the Finish Line. Barclays Bank traded
977,100 shares worth 17.615m. Demand outweighed Supply by 404% at the
Finish Line signalling the Price Bias points higher.
COOP Bank firmed 0.59% to close at 17.10 and was trading at 17.20
+1.18% at the Finish Line. COOP Bank traded 710,600 shares.

BRITAM rallied +4.419% to close at 9.45 and traded heavy volume of
4.965m shares worth 47.050m. BRITAM trades on a Trailing PE of 6.75
and reported a +25.076% H1 2013 Profit before Tax Acceleration which
means the share remains inexpensive on a PE Basis. BRITAM was trading
at 9.55 +5.52% session highs at the Finish line.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL closed unchanged at 344.00 and traded 193,800 shares worth
66.698m. EABL is +21.126% since the start of September.

Total Kenya rallied 6.38% to close at 25.00 and traded 58,900 shares.
Total Kenya has rallied +36.986% since the 1st of October.

Total Kenya share price data here +36.986% since October 1st
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NDE%3D

KenolKobil closed unchanged at 8.00 and traded 3.052m shares.
KenolKobil has seen heavy Volume Action at this level and of late.

Mumias Sugar improved +2.78% to close at 3.70 and traded 209,000
shares. Mumias Sugar was trading at 3.80 +5.56% at the closing Bell.
There was Buy Side Demand for 644% more shares than were traded during
the session, at the Finish Line.

Bamburi Cement traded 154,600 shares worth 32.466m and all at 210.00
and unchanged.
Athi River Cement firmed 0.68% to close at 74.00 and traded 326,100
shares worth 24.153m. Pradeep Paunrana gave FY Earnings Guidance at
+35% Year on Year late last week. ARM is +65.178% in 2013.
East African Portland traded 8,000 shares at 66.00 and unchanged.

GEMS

Home Afrika which surged 9.6% yesterday rallied a further +9.49% to
close at 7.50 and traded its busiest session since it was listed with
3.052m shares worth 22.891m traded.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2013
 
 
 
 
 
COMMENTS

 
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  aly khan says:
october 10th, 2013 at 10:06 am
Impact of Westgate mall attacks on Kenya's policies & economy @CNBCAfrica @KarimaBrown Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQzxPB4K0O8

Impact of Westgate mall attacks on Kenya's policies & economy @CNBCAfrica @KarimaBrown Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1d4gj0LgLg

Helicopter Traffic over #Westgate 15 days ago
http://www.twitpic.com/dergcs

#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica 's #Nairobi on the 19th Floor 16 days ago
http://www.twitpic.com/deneco