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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 01st of October 2013
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

I thank My Guests Domenico Fanizza and Ragnar Gudmundsson @IMFNews
#Mindspeak #Kenyatakeoff@interConNairobi
http://www.twitpic.com/dfhbyl

The Audience #Mindspeak
http://www.twitpic.com/df8iun

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Executive Profile Wouter J. Kolff Businessweek
Africa


We met more than 6 Years ago in the bar @FairmontMtKenya

I have sat at the bar and half expected William Holden or Adnan
Khashoggi to pop in. My most intense memory is of discovering a
complete film studio on the grounds, and walking around in the evening
light alone
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/026NSX0102.pdf

In fact, Wouter walked in.

The Snow Peak of Mount Kenya seen from @FairmontMtKenya
http://www.twitpic.com/cg77yw

Wouter has been a super cool Mentor and is a Shareholder in my
Business and a super Friend.

I said Wouter, 'So where are you off to?''

He said 'I am off to the Satao Camp in the Amboseli
http://www.africanspicesafaris.com/images1/satao_elerai_tented_camp.jpg

I said We were there at the beginning of the Month.

Zebra Crossing Amboseli
http://www.twitpic.com/dclac8

Elephants 1st September 2013 Amboseli Kenya
http://www.twitpic.com/dbgsuv

read more


And then I am off to Peponi's in Lamu.
Africa


I said You must try an Old Pal and then kick back and gaze at the Milky Way.

read more



Maximum Bibi Peace in the Middle East? Not if Benjamin Netanyahu has anything to say about it.
Law & Politics


Sanctions, particularly those applied in 2010 on international
financial transactions, are creating a hard-currency shortage that is
bringing the country’s economy to its knees. NYT

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/01/world/middleeast/iran-staggers-as-sanctions-hit-economy.html?ref=world&_r=0

Because of the sanctions, oil sales, which account for 80 percent of
the government’s revenue, have been cut in half. While Mr. Ahmadinejad
had asserted that Iran had $100 billion in foreign exchange reserves,
the total had shrunk to $80 billion by mid-2013, according to a new
study by Roubini Global Economics, a research firm based in New York,
and the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington group that
advocates strong sanctions against Iran.

But even that vastly overstates the amount readily available to Iran.
Three-quarters of the $80 billion is tied up in escrow accounts in
countries that buy Iranian oil — the result of an American sanctions
law that took effect in February. Under that law, the money can be
spent only to buy products from those countries.

Even gaining access to the remaining $20 billion is difficult — it has
to be physically moved in cash because of Iran’s expulsion from the
global banking network known by its acronym Swift, which had allowed
the money to be transmitted electronically.

“They can’t repatriate the money back to Iran,” said Mark Dubowitz,
the executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“This is the dilemma Iran finds itself in.”

Conclusions

President @BarackObama exerted enormous Pressure via Financial, Psyops
and Cyber Warfare and via cutting the Legs from underneath Iran's most
important Ally Bashar Assad.

PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe was told not to stray beyond a 25-mile radius
of New York during United Nations meetings last week

http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/zimbabwe/18378-mugabe-asked-by-us-to-keep-to-un-confinement.html

Andy Warhol, Gianni Agnelli, August, 1972, Polacolor Type 108, 4
1/4 x 3 3/8 in. © 2013 The Andy Warhol Foundation for the Visual Arts,
Inc./Licensed by ARS

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324591204579037172309407990.html?mod=WSJ_Magazine_LeadStory

IN THE END, when the money is lost and the records broken, only style
remains—a handful of gestures that recall a life or an era. Napoleon
is dust, but the men at a dinner party still wear buttons on their
sleeves because the Little Corporal wanted to stop his soldiers from
wiping their noses. Arnold Rothstein was buried ages ago, but wise
guys still carry cash in a roll in their front pockets because the
gangster rumored to have fixed the World Series wanted to get at his
dough fast. True visionaries are imitated not only by those who knew
them but by those who knew those who knew them—culture is people
copying people they've never met. Over time, the names are forgotten,
but a few habits survive. In the last half century, there was perhaps
no man more imitated than the late Gianni Agnelli, the Italian
industrialist, chairman of Fiat and playboy of playboys in the jet-set
age. When you see a kid wearing his watch or tie just so, you might be
seeing a copy of a copy of Gianni.

His style was about more than clothes—it was an attitude, a
philosophical response to absurdity. Watching him could tell you how
to live, how to behave. In Italy, they call it sprezzatura, making the
difficult look easy. Americans are gonzo, a spirit personified by
Hunter S. Thompson, who defined it as a man who learns to fly by
falling out of a plane. Agnelli might look gonzo—especially on nights
when he showed up in boots and an ill-fitting tie—but was, in fact,
sprezzatura; he knew how to fly all along. "When he was not perfectly
dressed, it was contrived," says Taki Theodoracopulos, the writer,
columnist, socialite and son of a Greek shipping tycoon. Taki is one
of the few surviving members of Agnelli's social circle. "The tie
askew, the unbuttoned shirt—nothing was an accident. Or, to put it
another way, it was meant to be an accident, which made it even more
stylish."

 "You always had a sense that he was special, charismatic," says
Ginevra Elkann, Agnelli's granddaughter. (She runs a gallery in Turin
built around her grandparents' art collection.) "When he came in the
house, you felt the atmosphere change. There was excitement. When he
was around, you knew something was going to happen."

"He was elegant and wore clothes beautifully," says Taki. "He was
meant to be a dancer, not an athlete. He was built like a boy, with
narrow shoulders. The way clothes hung on him, it was just as the
designers imagine it."

You want to resort to big words to describe his persona: unflappable,
punctilious, nonchalant—at once aristocratic and utterly informal.
Claus Von Bulow told me Agnelli used to call at three or four in the
morning just to say, "Tell me, Claus, what's happening in the clubs?"
(The American version of this is Jimmy Cagney greeting friends, "What
d'ya hear, what d'ya say?") "His life was his art," says Robert
Rabensteiner, the fashion editor at L'Uomo Vogue, "the people he was
connected with, the way he expressed the style of the jet set: Henry
Kissinger, Jackie Onassis, President Kennedy. It was a beautiful life,
and he lived it uniquely."

read more


What’s painful about this uncertainty, of course, is that it’s entirely self-inflicted. JAMES SUROWIECKI
International Trade


The U.S. has no trouble getting people to lend it money at eminently
reasonable interest rates, so the only way we can default is if we
simply choose not to pay our bills.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3544 The euro rallied 4 percent to $1.3527 last quarter, its
biggest gain since the beginning of 2011
Dollar Index 80.11
Japan Yen 98.14 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the sales tax would
rise to 8 percent in April.
Swiss Franc 0.9029
Pound 1.6236 The dollar fell to the lowest since Jan. 3 versus the pound
Aussie 0.9398 The Aussie appreciated 4.7 percent against the greenback
in September, the biggest monthly advance since June 2012
India Rupee 62.385
South Korea Won 1074.04
Brazil Real 2.2200
Egypt Pound 6.8921
South Africa Rand 10.0301

The dollar’s share of allocated central bank reserves increased to
61.9 percent in the second quarter from 61.5 percent a year ago,
according to International Monetary Fund data. The ratio for the yen
slipped to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent, while the euro’s share
declined to 23.8 percent from 25 percent.

The Canadian dollar’s share increased to 1.8 percent in the second
quarter from 1.6 percent in the first three months of the year, IMF
data show. For the Australian dollar, it rose to 1.7 percent from 1.6
percent.

Denmark’s krone is the best-performing currency in 2013 and the rand
has plunged 15.5 percent.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.11
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Sterling 3 Month Chart INO 1.6231 Jan 3rd Highs
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 98.14
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3544
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The euro rallied 4 percent to $1.3527 last quarter, its biggest gain
since the beginning of 2011

Apple Replaces Coca-Cola as World’s Most Valuable Brand

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-01/apple-replaces-coca-cola-as-world-s-most-valuable-brand-table-.html

read more




Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1328.76 [Gold dropped 4.9 percent in
September, bringing its decline for the year to 21 percent]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 102.02
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.X13.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The Lamborghini SpA Gallardo LP 570-4 Squadra Corse automobile is
displayed at an unveiling in Tokyo.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/lamborghini-signals-luxury-shift-from-china-to-u-s-japan-cars.html

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more


The worst week of violent unrest that central Sudan has seen in years has resulted in the arrests of 700 people, the government said on Monday NYT
Africa


The police on Monday once again used tear gas on protesters, this
time, witnesses said, female students at Ahfad University in Omdurman
who were chanting, “We don’t want Bashir.”

The police said 33 people have died during the protests, while various
activists and opposition leaders placed the toll at more than 100. At
a government news conference, Interior Minister Ibrahim Mahmoud Hamad
dismissed photographs of shooting victims circulating on the Internet
as fakes, saying, “Most pictures on social media are actually from
Egypt.”

Mr. Bilal, the information minister, faulted the satellite networks’
coverage of events as “trying to manufacture an Arab Spring in Sudan.”

“We think generally that the international media’s coverage brought
both sides of the story,” he said. “But Al-Arabiya and Sky News Arabia
went beyond their mandate.”

Sudan's interior minister told journalists that most pictures of
protest crackdown was from Egypt [AFP]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/10/sudan-defends-crackdown-amid-more-protests-20131015534486705.html

Secretary of State John Kerry met his Sudanese counterpart for talks
on Monday on the South Sudan peace process and conflict-hit areas like
Darfur, but did not raise U.S. concerns over the government's
crackdown on protesters, the State Department said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/30/us-usa-sudan-idUSBRE98T17220130930

The talks with Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Ahmed Karti focused on
peace between Sudan and South Sudan, and the need to address the root
causes of conflicts in Darfur, Blue Nile and southern Kordofan regions
of the country.

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Kerry did not repeat the
United States' concerns about excessive force used last week against
protesters demanding the resignation of veteran President Omar Hassan
Bashir.

"It was not a topic in the meeting," Psaki said. "This was not a long
meeting, they discussed a range of issues and clearly we've condemned
it and continue to given our concern."

Now, there is a back story to this Sudan CS Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2012/0130/South-Sudan-s-oil-cutoff-brilliant-negotiating-or-suicide/(page)/2

You see, through 2011, Sudan provided China with 5 percent of its
total oil imports. You will recall that 35,000 Chinese workers were
evacuated out of Libya in nine days last year and China was rolled
back and right out of Libya. Not so long ago, President Obama
authorized the deployment to Uganda of approximately 100
combat-equipped US forces to help regional forces ostensibly to
“remove from the battlefield” – meaning capture or kill – Lord’s
Resistance Army leader Joseph Kony.

Then in January this year, President Barack Obama issued this memorandum.

"By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and
the laws of the United States, including section 503(a) of the Foreign
Assistance Act of 1961, as amended, and section 3(a)(1) of the Arms
Export Control Act, as amended, I hereby find that the furnishing of
defense articles and defense services to the Republic of South Sudan
will strengthen the security of the United States and promote world
peace," said the official text of Obama's decision.

It seems to me Sudan has become the epicenter of the US and China's
collision in Africa and that we are watching a 21st-century,
high-stakes proxy war. I have to surmise that the US is underwriting
Salva's overdraft, what with all these demobilized soldiers roaming
around Juba, it would be suicide to have them unpaid for any length of
time. I wonder who is underwriting Bashir?

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +15.25% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.0301
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8921
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +5.30% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +34.28% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +70.24% 2013 [Fresh All
Time High]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


The recurrence risk is simply unconscionable. 23-SEP-2013
Kenyan Economy


Inflation hit the 8.29 per cent mark in September from 6.67 per cent
in August Business Daily

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/VAT-drive-inflation-to-a-15-month-high/-/539546/2013936/-/51vi36z/-/index.html

Consumer good prices rose at the highest rate in 15 months driven by
introduction of value added tax (VAT) on previously exempt and
zero-rated goods, according to official figures released on Monday.

Inflation, the rate at which the price of a select basket of goods
rises, hit the 8.29 per cent mark in September from 6.67 per cent the
previous month mainly driven by the near three per cent rise in the
prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages that account for 36 per
cent of the basket of goods used to measure the price changes or the
Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The price of milk rose by the largest margin of Sh10 for a 500ml
packet to an average of Sh57.43 last month or 22.1 per cent higher
than the retail price of Sh47 in August. Newspapers came in second
with a 20 per cent rise to Sh60 in the same period.

Conclusions

I think this One Off VAT Related Price Surge was already factored in
and therefore the Markets will look through the Noise for the Signal.
The Signal being that this is a One Off Adjustment.

Kenya's tourism sector braces for attack fallout By Helen VESPERINI AFP
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09/30/kenya-tourism-sector-braces-for-attack-fallout/

"Tourism earnings in Kenya are heavily skewed to the second half
because of the migration, because of the Christmas holidays," noted
Aly-Khan Satchu, a prominent analyst and CEO of the Rich Management
financial advisory group.

Tour operators, he said, would have been pinning their hopes on a
robust second half of the year, which traditionally generates twice as
much revenue as the first.

Karume family closes Indian Ocean resort Business Daily
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Karume-family-closes-Indian-Ocean-resort/-/539550/2013840/-/8100wlz/-/index.html

The Karume family has shut down Indian Ocean Beach Resort for eight
months to undertake renovations in the wake of wake of low number of
international tourist arrivals at the Coast.

The Diani hotel is being renovated at a cost of Sh100 million, an
exercise that would render 191 people jobless.

“We are closing down the hotel for eight months for renovations as the
number of international tourists has gone down since January owing to
the eurozone crisis,” said hotel’s general manager Gomeri Kombo.

Mr Kombo added that insecurity in the South Coast and uncertainties
over the March 4 General Election had worsened the situation.

Charter flights from the traditional markets — UK, Germany, Italy and
France — have plummeted to less than 10 per week, compared to between
17 and 20 a week in the same period last year. In 2007, the number of
charter flights hit a record 30 per week.

Mombasa and Coast Tourist Association chairman Mohamed Hersi recently
warned that hotels might soon be forced to lay off of workers due to
lack of business.

“Let the authorities know that tourism at the Coast is on the verge of
collapse as charter airlines are pulling out of the Mombasa route,” he
said.

“Less than 10 charter flights a week cannot ferry in tourists who can
fill in the 30,000 beds in the Coast hotels.”

Another reason given for the drop in tourist numbers is that air
tickets costs from Europe to Kenya have shot up by 20 per cent.

The Palm Trees and The Beach Diani Kenya Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/aobu9b

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.208 [The Shilling
has rallied sharply since Monday last week when it was at 87.65]

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg   +34.25% 2013

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

The Nairobi All Share has rallied +1.465% since Wednesday Morning last week.
The Nairobi All Share is  +34.25% in 2013 and 1.225% below its 2013
Multi Year High from May 22nd this Year.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +15.969% 2013

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Store owners in the upmarket Nairobi shopping mall where 67 people
were killed this month said on Monday soldiers sent in to end the
four-day siege looted electronics, jewelry and cash tills.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/30/us-kenya-attack-idUSBRE98T0TJ20130930

Reflections on #Westgate, #Samanthalewthwaite The White Widow The
@NSEKenya and The Shilling The Star

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/039NSX3009-2.pdf

#Westgate happened more than a week ago and to date there is no Grand
Unified Theory. There are competing Narratives and it is this Pot
Pourri of Narratives which is leaving many of us uncertain. Earlier
This week I characterised it as a BP Moment. Kenya's share of Voice
was at a Level heretofore never experienced. The World's Media was
camped on our Doorstep. I found myself watching the #Live Feed,
trawling Eyewitness Accounts, reading the Al-Shabaab Twitter Handles
[Twitter knocked them down about 4x only for it to bounce back under a
different Handle]. In fact, Al-Shabaab live tweeted #Westgate and the
Cabinet Secretary's Bona Fides was undermined by the real time
rebuttals issued by Al-Shabaab and on Twitter. The latency of the
responses leads to me place the Author of the Twitter Handles on the
scene in #Westgate for an as yet undetermined time.

David Guetta - Titanium ft. Sia

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRfuAukYTKg

VIDEO: The escape route tunnel used by terrorists after shopping centre massacre

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/nairobi-attack-escape-route-tunnel-2314873

The terrorists behind the Nairobi shopping centre massacre are feared
to have escaped capture by fleeing like “sewer rats” through an
undergroud tunnel.

#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica Bureau #Nairobi on the 19th Floor
http://www.twitpic.com/deneco

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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