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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 10th of October 2013
 
Morning
Africa

Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

It was such Fun to go and watch Hannah's School Play at Kenton College
this morning.

Fathers and Daughters
http://www.twitpic.com/dgqklk

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#Mindspeak 2013 RICH TV
Africa


@DReynders @HabilOlaka @patriciaithau1 @johngithongo @MaggieIreri

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Rich Interviews in 2013 RICH TV
Africa


Charlie Robertson Renaissance Capital's Global Chief Economist.
Prof.Njuguna Ndung'u Governor, Central Bank of Kenya
Ayisi Makatiani-Managing Partner-Fanisi Capital
One on One with EABL Group Managing Director and CEO; Charles Ireland
One on one with chief financial officer @KenyaAirways- Alex Mbugua
One on one with @Kenyaairways #KQ C.E.O Dr. Titus Naikuni
 interview with Safaricom C.E.O @BobCollymore
Interview with @KCBGroup CEO Joshua Oigara

I thoroughly enjoyed the #ManTalk Session with @AdanMohamedCS The
Cabinet Secretary for Industrialisation yesterday at Safaricom

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@ronnieosumba introduced @bobcollymore by saying we are glad to have you here tonight
Africa


@LouisVuitton 's @Hennessy lubricated the Session with good effect

read more




Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zaidan was taken from the Corinthia hotel in Tripoli at dawn by a group called Libya Revolutionaries Operations Room [now freed apparently]
Law & Politics


Zaidan was taken “to an unknown destination for unknown reasons by a
group believed to be the Libya Revolutionaries Operations Room and the
Crime Combating Committee,” the government said on its Facebook page.
The Libyan Cabinet is now holding an emergency meeting, government
spokesman Mohamed Kaabar said by telephone.

Libyan prime minister Ali Zeidan surrounded by men at an
unidentified location. Photograph: Al Arabiya/Reuters

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/10/libyan-prime-minister-ali-zeidan-freed-kidnap

Obama ready to trim military aid to Egypt in sign of US disapproval
[Saudi Arabia, GCC, Kuwait will step in]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/09/obama-cut-military-aid-egypt

US officials have denied reports that the entire $1.3bn aid package is
to be suspended. But a distinction looks likely to be made between
advanced aircraft and tanks for the Egyptian armed forces and
equipment needed for counter-terrorism and border security. An
announcement is expected in Washington within days.

The Washington Post quoted unnamed officials as referring to "a
significant part of non-essential military aid to Egypt" being
withheld.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3510
Dollar Index  80.51 Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index reached a two-week
high as congressional leaders were said to be open to a short-term
increase in the nation’s debt limit.
Japan Yen 97.73
Swiss Franc 0.9104
Pound 1.5940
Aussie 0.9433
India Rupee 62.03
South Korea Won 1071.83
Brazil Real 2.2058
Egypt Pound 6.8864 Saudi/GCC signalling via the FX Markets is in fact
a very interesting Signifier
South Africa Rand 9.9585

Conclusions

The Markets are looking to run the dollar up some, believing everyone
looked over the precipice and have taken a step back.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.47 [The dollar climbed against
the yen and the euro in the longest run of gains in a month]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

House Republican and Senate Democratic leaders are open to a
short-term increase in the debt limit, said congressional aides of
both parties who spoke on condition of anonymity. The movement comes
after House Democrats met with PresidentBarack Obama at the White
House. A small group of House Republicans are scheduled to meet with
the president today.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17-18 meeting showed yesterday
that most policy makers said the central bank was likely to reduce the
pace of its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases this year. The
gathering took place before the political deadlock over the budget and
debt limit.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3510
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 97.73
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

“As soon as you start to see signs of an agreement being reached on
the debt ceiling, I think you see dollar-yen fly back up to 99 pretty
quickly,” said Thomas Averill

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-09/euro-is-near-one-month-high-versus-pound-before-production-data.html

read more




Crude Oil 5 day chart INO 101.93 [headed to 100.00]
Commodities


Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 101.96
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.Z13.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

"The Orange," the largest fancy vivid orange diamond in the world. The
VS1 clarity pear-shaped diamond of 14.82 carats is estimated at $17
million to $20 million. Source: 2013 Christie's Images Ltd. via
Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-09/biggest-orange-diamond-may-fetch-20-million-at-auction.html

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more



“Baraawe is the heart of the area controlled by Shabab, and it is the only remaining port they have where foreign fighters can get into Somalia by sea,” said a United Nations official NYT
Africa


Sudan and South Sudan Inch Toward War By Jérôme Tubiana
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/sudan-and-south-sudan-inch-toward-war

From dawn until dusk, they walked the red-earth path between territory
controlled by the government of Sudan to that held by the rebels --
small groups of men in jalabiyas, women in colorful clothes, and
children on donkeys or their fathers’ shoulders or in baskets on their
mothers’ backs. They carried jerricans that were filled with water at
the start but were now dry, goats too young to walk, utensils, and
weapons -- from nineteenth-century swords to rocket-propelled grenade
launchers, sometimes both on one shoulder. Among the civilians walked
rebel soldiers who were there to protect against depredation by
government militias. The travelers' villages in the Ingessana Hills
were four days back down the road and surrounded by government forces.
Occasionally, a rebel car would come to pick up stragglers and drive
them to the next resting spot. But the very weakest -- the oldest, the
blind, those too sick to recover -- were left behind. The survivors
pressed on toward El Fuj, a crossing point at the border between their
war-torn homeland, the Blue Nile state in Sudan, and the new nation of
South Sudan. It was one or two days farther on.

Sudan’s civil war has often been called Africa’s longest conflict. Its
first stage, between 1963 and 1972, pitted rebels from the southern
part of Sudan against the central government, which was dominated by a
northern Arabized elite. The North granted the South a degree of
autonomy in 1972, but it was not enough to paper over years of
resentment. The conflict resumed in 1983, with the creation of the
Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). Although the
movement had “liberation” in its title, its leader, John Garang, a
charismatic southerner, advocated “diversity in unity” rather than the
South’s separation. Less appealing in the deeper south, this
relatively modest agenda was popular within border regions on the
northern side of the eventual Sudan–South Sudan border, including Blue
Nile state and the Nuba Mountains of South Kordofan.

In 2005, after 20 years of a brutal war, Khartoum and the rebels
signed a peace agreement that granted the South (but not Blue Nile or
South Kordofan) the right to self-determination. By 2011, most
southerners had lost faith in unity and voted for independence. North
of the new 1,250-mile border between North and South Sudan, some of
the South Kordofan and Blue Nile rebels, now calling themselves the
Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), vowed to fight on.
In June 2011, just after losing local elections and with one month to
go before South Sudan’s independence, they once again picked up their
guns and war resumed, first in South Kordofan then in Blue Nile. Since
then, nearly 200,000 Sudanese civilians have made their way across the
border to refugee camps in South Sudan.

For many of them, the idea that they are even crossing a border is a
foreign notion. The placement of the new border was supposed to be
based on provincial boundaries that existed in 1956, the year of
Sudan’s independence. But those boundaries had never stopped moving
before or since -- sometimes for good reason, such as facilitating the
movements of nomads or access to a watercourse. Suddenly transformed
into a solid border, though, the 1956 line looks ratherarbitrary.
Traveling along it, one mostly meets minorities afraid of being more
marginalized than ever in what remains of Sudan and nomads scared of
losing their grazing rights in South Sudan. As a result, African Union
mediators have insisted that the new line become a “soft border,” one
that gives rights to people on both sides of the fence: freedom of
movement, trade, residence, farming and grazing, or even the right to
vote and of dual citizenship. That idea is appealing, but making it
work will require much more from both Khartoum and Juba than the
current chronic low-grade warfare.

One main reason for the deadlock over disputed parts of the border
regions is that the governments in Khartoum and Juba are both fragile
and wary of turning border people into rebels. An important site in
their game is the so-called Mile 14, a territory that was the subject
of thorny negotiations in 2012.

In the dry season, Mile 14, which spans 14 miles from north to south
and 125 miles east to west, is a mostly empty plain inhabited by
sedentary Dinka cattle herders but also grazed by Arab nomads from the
North. I drove across the yellow grass until I reached the river the
Arabs call Bahr al-Arab, the “river of the Arabs,” and that the Dinka
call Kiir. The snaking waterway, edged with lush greenery, is the
northernmost permanent watercourse west of the Nile. The steel hulk of
a bridge linking both banks still served as a crossing point for
northern traders and nomads in spite of the three southern tanks
pointing their guns northward. The tanks are an artifact of South
Sudan’s late 2010 strategy of arming that disputed part of the border.

When the Rizeigat Arabs, who live in the North, asked Khartoum to
respond to what they saw as an invasion of their homeland by southern
tanks, they were told to send their camels and armed herdsmen. The
command might sound dismissive, but its message was clear: Get ready
to “make a war,” as one Arab leader told me. Since then, tensions have
intensified, with Rizeigat militias sometimes fighting against forces
from South Sudan. The multiplication of cross-border incidents
prompted another round of peacemaking between Juba and Khartoum,
which, in September 2012, agreed to demilitarize the borderlands,
including the whole of Mile 14. After months of dragging its feet, the
southern army began to evacuate the disputed zone in March 2013.
According to the United Nations, the troops soon came back.

Both sides know that the area will never be demilitarized. Repeated
commitments by Juba to stop harboring northern rebels are unlikely to
satisfy Khartoum or end rebellions in Sudan. With South Sudanese
authorities not fully willing or able to prevent SPLM-N and allied
Darfur factions from going back and forth across the new border,
Sudanese rebels are at home in the borderlands. They claim to control
40 percent of the invisible line.

Another reason both Khartoum and Juba hesitate to make too many
concessions on the border is that both are rightly worried about
turning disgruntled people from the borderlands into rebels. As much
as the Dinka from the border areas were the vanguard of the SPLM/A
during the civil war, Arab tribes such as the Rizeigat formed the bulk
of the paramilitary forces used by Khartoum to fight the rebels in
South Sudan and later in Darfur. Increasingly feeling they were both
manipulated and not adequately rewarded, Arab fighters joined the
SPLM/A (several hundred are reportedly still in South Sudanese ranks).
Some have now turned up among the northern rebel groups as well.

Even at the height of the conflict that led to the division of Sudan,
peaceful exchanges between border communities never ceased. Throughout
the war, Arab nomads such as the Misseriya secretly traded with the
rebels in both the south and the north. Some of those suq-al-salam
(“peace markets”) still survive today -- but barely.

It is impossible to build a durable peace between Sudan and South
Sudan, and within both countries, through separate piecemeal fixes. By
their own acknowledgement, international players, in particular
African Union mediators, have focused on the relations between Sudan
and South Sudan. After having tried everything possible to prevent or
solve new conflicts between the two countries, they increasingly
realize that peace will remain fragile as long as both governments
remain undermined by internal divisions and conflicts with rebels.
Both states should work to re-establish trust with their citizens, in
particular in the borderlands. Border communities are aware that they
matter; their lands are among the most populated, and their livestock,
water, oil, and cross-border trade make them some of the wealthiest
people in either country. Nevertheless, they feel abandoned by their
governments. In Sudan in particular, an inclusive national dialogue
could lead to their empowerment. Recent unrest in Khartoum itself
makes this solution more and more popular among Sudanese from all
sides and among international players.

Back in war-torn Blue Nile, at the triple border of Sudan, South
Sudan, and Ethiopia, a local tribal chief, Uweisa Madi Zima, told me,
“We’re not educated people and don’t understand much about politics.
But the government that will treat us well will be our father, be it
South or North Sudan.”
Conclusions

The Sudan has become the Epicentre of a Proxy War with the US standing
behind South Sudan and China foursquare behind Khartoum.

A boy pushes his bicycle in front of a building destroyed in 2011
in the Abyei region, September 14, 2013. (Andreea Campeanu / Courtesy
Reuters)

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/sudan-and-south-sudan-inch-toward-war

Angola Bulldozers Give Slum Dwellers New Life Amid Oil Boom Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-08/angolan-bulldozers-drive-slum-dwellers-to-new-life-amid-oil-boom.html

Francisco Antonio, a 55-year-old bricklayer, smiled while his children
removed furniture ahead of government bulldozers preparing to smash
his concrete house.

“Crime is a big issue here,” said Antonio, a self-employed father of
six who’s lived for 25 years in Sambizanga, a hillside settlement near
the port that’s one of the poorest parts of Luanda, the capital. “Some
people may not agree, but what the government is doing is good.”

The Angolan government has accelerated the razing of slums since the
removals began in 2001, after rural people sought refuge during a
27-year civil war. It’s moving residents to the Zango development
zone, constructed by Brazil’s Odebrecht SA about 40 kilometers (25
miles) inland.

By doing so it’s also helping meet demand for prime real estate as the
middle class in Africa’s second-largest crude oil producer expands.
Mercer ranks the city as the world’s most expensive for expatriates.

Luanda, which had a population of 500,000 before Angola’s independence
from Portugal in 1975, is jammed with more than 6 million residents.
It’s Africa’s fifth-largest city after Cairo, Lagos, Kinshasa and
Johannesburg; more than two-thirds of residents live in shantytowns
known as musseques, according to Luanda-based Development Workshop, an
aid group formed in 1981.
Office space in central Luanda is selling at about $1,000 per square
meter (10.76 square feet) for undeveloped land and between $7,500 and
$10,000 for space in buildings even after an eight-year construction
boom and the global economic slowdown, according to Daniel Esteves, a
real estate agent at Luanda-based Empreendimentos e Mediavso
Imobilisria Lda. Banks including Standard Bank Group Ltd. have
established offices in the city.

The government is giving the slum residents the choice of a house
elsewhere or cash, the equivalent of $150 per square meter of their
current accommodation, according to residents including Anitemia
Fernandes, an unemployed 24-year-old who moved to a two-bedroom house
in Zango from one half the size in Sambizanga. Her new one-story
concrete home, which is painted purple, has indoor plumbing and a
small yard. Each block has its own color.

The government shipped belongings and bussed in residents in a
“process handled very well,” unlike the past when people were treated
like “cattle in trucks,” Fernandes said.

Infrastructure to house more than 2 million people is under
construction in a 54-square-kilometer (21-square-mile) area of the
city including the neighborhoods of Cazenga, Rangel and Sambizanga,
Bento Soito, director of the government’s Technical Office for Urban
Redevelopment, said in a May 23 interview with state news agency
Angop. The process could take 15 to 20 years, he said. Soito declined
to comment when called by Bloomberg.

The state has yet to fully meet a 2008 promise to build one million
houses by 2012 because of slow implementation and the world economic
downturn, Allan Cain, executive director of Development Workshop,
said. Despite government pressure, banks are reluctant to provide
mortgages because the poor lack land titles and collateral, he said.

Slum clearances began in Boa Vista, after rainy season landslides
killed residents. A road is only now being built in the empty space.
Advocacy groups, such as New York-based Human Rights Watch, criticized
removals, saying they were forced evictions without warning or
adequate compensation. Residents ended up in tents at Zango before
houses were built.

“If I had a choice I would rather remain here than go somewhere else,”
said Joao Carlos, 45, ataxi driver who’s lived in Sambizanga since
birth. “Sambizanga is close to the city, it’s close to everything. I
can’t believe I’m leaving.”

The government also leveled the slums of Dimuca and Campismo to expand
a railway yard and a brewery drainage system.

Angola’s $114 billion economy will probably expand 6.5 percent this
year, according to the central bank, as companies such as Total SA
(FP), Chevron Corp. (CVX) and BP Plc (BP/)pump about 1.8 million
barrels a day of crude from offshore fields.

The government is attempting to diversify away from oil, which makes
up 97 percent of exports and 80 percent of tax revenue. A dependence
on oil worker expatriates contributes to prices such as the $6,500 a
month to rent a two-bedroom apartment in Luanda, according to Mercer.

There’s been no census since 1970 and the World Bank estimates the
population at 21 million. The elite steer Porsches and Range Rovers
past slums like Sambizanga, which hold much of the 54 percent of the
national population that the United Nations estimates live on less
than $1.25 a day.

Residents were given no choice about the timing of their moves. Their
chief concern on reaching Zango were children missing classes and
consistent electricity.

“The government should have waited for the school year to end in
November,” Nini Tavares, an unemployed 30-year-old, said in an
interview at her new two-bedroom house. “My 6-year-old daughter can’t
go to school,” she said.

Mara Baptista, Sambizanga district administrator, and Agostinho Silva,
vice president of the Luanda administrative commission, were
unavailable to comment after repeated visits to their offices and
telephone calls over the past month.

Compensating slum residents with new accommodation is complicated
because only 7 percent have formal property deeds and even the wealthy
lack them after the war’s turmoil, according to Cain. Titles are
granted by provinces, a long, expensive process only available in the
few areas with approved plans, Cain said in an e-mailed response to
questions.

“Most urban residents with weak or non-existent tenure rights benefit
little from increasing land values,” Cain said. “They’re susceptible
to being forcibly removed.”

Authorities should consider informal occupation documents granted by
local chiefs, known as sobas, to ease the process, while removals are
less painful than they used to be, he said.

Back in Sambizanga, a reporter plucked his BlackBerry from the dust
after thieves tossed it away as they tried, unsuccessfully, to escape
police near Antonio’s house overlooking dozens of ships and stacks of
red, green and blue freight containers.

Antonio said he’s keen to move to a safer place with more space,
plumbing and better sanitation. He said he expects to receive two
small houses in Zango, just like his nephew got.

“The cleaning-up process is going smoothly,” he said. “I haven’t seen
any discontent or demonstrations so far.”

Office space in central Luanda is selling at about $1,000 per
square meter even after an eight-year construction boom

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-08/angolan-bulldozers-drive-slum-dwellers-to-new-life-amid-oil-boom.html

More than two-thirds of residents in Luanda live in shanty-towns
called musseques, according to Development Workshop, an aid group
formed in 1981.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-08/angolan-bulldozers-drive-slum-dwellers-to-new-life-amid-oil-boom.html

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +12.20% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 9.9582
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.883 [Friends
with deep Pockets have established a Presence here]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +8.70% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +36.76% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +71.91% 2013 [Record Highs]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


"It is actually quite naive to think that 34 countries can come together with the sole aim of moving out of the Rome Statute," @AMB_A_Mohammed ahead of Saturday's summit in Addis Ababa. "We have not asked anybody to support a walkout."
Kenyan Economy


Foreign Minister @AMB_A_Mohammed told a news conference Wednesday that
Kenyatta has fully cooperated with the ICC so far, but now that he is
president “the circumstances are different.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/after-mall-attack-kenya-president-unlikely-to-attend-trial-at-intl-court/2013/10/09/d9a88cc0-30ca-11e3-ad00-ec4c6b31cbed_story.html

Kenya’s foreign minister says no sitting president in the world has
had to appear before a court, a statement that comes as Kenya appears
to be laying the groundwork to avoid having President Uhuru Kenyatta
appear at the International Criminal Court next month.

Kenyan political insiders and political analysts tell The Associated
Press it appears increasingly unlikely Kenyatta will travel to The
Hague as the court has ordered him to do.

read more


Kenya's Uhuru Kenyatta requests ICC trial video link
Kenyan Economy


Conclusions

Counter Terrorism trumps everything, in fact.

read more


Impact of #Westgate mall attacks on Kenya's policies & economy @CNBCAfrica @KarimaBrown Part 1
Kenyan Economy


Impact of #Westgate mall attacks on Kenya's policies & economy
@CNBCAfrica @KarimaBrown Part 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1d4gj0LgLg

Helicopter Traffic over #Westgate 15 days ago
http://www.twitpic.com/dergcs

#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica 's #Nairobi on the 19th Floor 16 days ago

http://www.twitpic.com/deneco

read more


Extremist Group Gains Foothold Among Kenyans NYT
Kenyan Economy


Outside of Somalia itself, Kenya sends more fighters to the Shabab
than does any other country, analysts say. Young Kenyan men have
ridden buses to the border in large numbers for years, local Muslim
leaders say, drawn by payments of up to $1,000 to cross into Somalia
and fight for the group.

“The growing number of militants in Kenya,” said J. Peter Pham,
director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Councilin Washington,
“is a serious concern — or ought to be — for both U.S. policy makers
and their Kenyan counterparts.”

“A day after the killings,” said Abubaker Shariff Ahmed, a
fundamentalist cleric in Mombasa, “a group of boys came to me and they
said, ‘Sheik, find us a way to communicate with Al Shabab. We want to
help, but we don’t have weapons.’ ”

Mr. Ahmed, a middle-aged man in a white cap and hennaed goatee, was
one of three Kenyan supporters of the Shabab listed by the United
States Treasury Department last year, accused of acting as a
“recruiter and facilitator” for the group. In an interview on a
rooftop here, Mr. Ahmed denied the charges, saying that when youth
from the area ask him for help joining the Shabab he tells them not to
go.

“Al Shabab has started investing more in building out its own network
in Kenya,” said Katherine Zimmerman, senior analyst at the Critical
Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute. “There is an Al
Shabab network that extends down through Kenya and into Tanzania.”

read more



TPS @SerenaHotels in Sh400m makeover
Kenyan Economy


The hospitality firm has over the last two years carried out
refurbishments of its facilities across the region.

Refurbishments of two of the firm’s facilities, the Mara Serena Safari
Lodge and the Sweetwaters Serena Camp in Nanyuki, have seen the
company spend about Sh396.5 million ($4.5 million) over the last two
years.

“The needs and expectations of our clients are dynamic ones. With this
particular project the new public areas of the Mara Serena Safari
Lodge have thus been under active construction for well over a year
with the goal of maintaining the lodge as the best in its category in
the Masai Mara game reserve, meeting all the needs and expectations of
our clients,” said Prince Amyn Aga Khan.

The prince is the chairman of the executive committee of the Aga Khan
Fund for Economic Development, which has a significant stake in the
Serena Hotels.

Refurbishments at the Mara Serena have seen the construction of a gym
and spa while accommodation at the Sweetwaters facility has been
expanded. The company is also rehabilitating the Serengeti Serena and
has completed the refurbishment of the Kigali Serena Hotel.

In the upcoming financial year, the company is also planning to
refurbish its Dar es Salaam facility.

The first phase of a three-year extension plan to the Nairobi Serena
Hotel, in which the company will construct an underground parking lot
and renovate existing bedrooms, will commence in 2014.

“This is part of a five-year plan. As a company, we realised that the
days when people went on Safari to see the big five are gone,” said
Serena Hotels managing director Mr Mahmud Jan Mohamed.

Mr Jan Mohamed noted that the local tourism industry is in dire need
of product diversification, especially with the challenges posed by
security concerns in the region.

Criticism has been lodged against overdevelopment in certain segments
of the industry, especially in the beach product, that has seen Kenyan
tourism industry players compete on price rather than quality.

With fears that Kenya’s safari product may be similarly eroded,
construction of new lodges in the Maasai Mara has been halted by the
county government of Narok.

Speaking at the Mara Serena Safari Lodge Wednesday, Narok governor Mr
Samuel Tunai said the county has banned the construction of new lodges
and camps in the game reserve and is currently carrying out an audit
of existing facilities.

“The mushrooming of so many camps and so many lodges in the Mara is a
development challenge. We have made up our minds that there will be no
more developments in the Mara,” said Mr Tunai.

Mr Jan Mohamed said the industry should diversify its tourism circuits
into Western Kenya and the Tsavo as part of initiatives to ensure that
the Safari product is not eroded.

read more


Serena Hotels MD Mahmud Jan Mohamed (left) takes visitors on a tour of the Mara Serena Safari Lodge which was re-opened on October 9, 2013. With him are Prince Amyn Aga Khan
Kenyan Economy


TPS @SerenaHotels share price data and Earnings releases here [Its a
cheap share]

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTI%3D

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           47.50
Total Shares Issued:          182174108.00
Market Capitalization:        8,653,270,130
EPS:             3.6
PE:                 13.194

H1 Earnings through June 2013 versus June 2012
H1 Sales 2.921193b versus 2.209633b +32.202%
Net Interest Cost [81.482m] versus [63.900m]
H1 PBT 205.079m versus 170.098m +20.565%
H1 PAT 141.077m versus 120.498m +17.078%
EPS 0.69 versus 0.90 -23.333%
Weighted Average number of shares 182.174m versus 148.211m

Conclusions

60.00 is a minimum Objective.

read more


11-JUN-2012 :: TPS @SerenaHotels
Kenyan Economy


MY memories of the Serena start in Mombasa years back when the manag-
ing director Mahmoud Jan Mohamed was the manager. I was then a
teenager and remember losing my heart to a girl, who would beat me at
table tennis, in a bikini. That table tennis Table is still there.

read more



Marshalls EA reports FY 2013 Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           12.00
Total Shares Issued:          14,393,106
Market Capitalization:        0
EPS:             0
PE:                 0.000

Swot Analysis FY Through March 2013 versus FY Through march 2012
FY Revenue 230.463m versus 234.306m
FY Cost of Sales [176.182m] versus [172.254m]
Other Operating Income 15.216m versus 7.434m
FY Administrative Expenses [138.191m] versus [102.982m]
FY Loss Before Tax [110.029m] versus [165.527m]

Conclusions

Marshalls is essentially opaque.

Marshalls EA reports FY 2013 Loss of 110.029m versus FY 2013 Loss 165.527m
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Marshalls%20(EA)%20Ltd%20-%20End%20of%20year%20results.pdf

Apache is poised to exit a deep-water block off Kenya after the US
independent decided to abandon its exploration effort in the East
African country

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1339844.ece

The company now intends to relinquish its 50% stake in Block L-08 –
its sole Kenyan asset – after finding only non-commercial volumes of
gas with its Mbawa-1 well last year.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 85.604
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +40.01% 2013
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

The Nairobi All Share snapped a winning Sequence where it had set 4
consecutive All Time Closing Highs and eased 0.583% to close at
132.82. The All Share had accelerated +7.1715% and with some Violence
since Westgate and over 12 Sessions through this morning and was
overdue a Correction. The All Share remains +40.01% in 2013.

Data released by the exchange for up to end of September shows the NSE
equity turnover for the nine months to September 2013 stood at Sh115.4
billion, compared to Sh86.8 billion for the full year 2012

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/NSE-turnover-hits--Sh115bn/-/539552/2025624/-/c78wg6z/-/index.html

“Foreign investors have raised their bets on Kenya since the stock
market entered a bull market in May 2012. The bull market has been
relentless,” said investment analyst and chief executive of Rich
Management, Aly-Khan Satchu.

Foreign investor purchases up to September stand at Sh70.2 billion,
double the buys up to September last year which stood at Sh35.1
billion and already outstripping the 2012 full year foreign buys of
Sh54.3 billion.

In terms of foreign investor sales, the trend is similar, with the
sales of up to September 2013 (Sh47.5 billion) more than doubling
those of up to September 2012 (Sh21.8 billion), and also up on the
2012 full year sales of Sh32.6 billion.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +19.67% in 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

The Nairobi NSE20 is +19.67% in 2013 and the index is now within 84
points of its 2013 and Multi Year Closing High from earlier in the
Year.

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Google Earth Saves Kenyan Elephants With Drones in Maasai Mara
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-09/google-earth-saves-kenyan-elephants-with-drones-in-maasai-mara.html

Standing in his flatbed truck, Marc Goss touches “take off” on his
iPad 3 and a $300 AR Drone whirs into the air as his latest weapon to
fight elephant poachers around Kenya’s Maasai Mara National Reserve.

“It’s an arms race,” said Goss, whose green khaki clothing shields him
from thorny acacia branches in the 30,000 hectares (74,132 acres) of
savanna he protects. “We’re seeing larger numbers of poachers.”

Besides the almost 2 foot-long drone, Goss and other conservationists
are using night-vision goggles and Google Earth to halt the decline of
Kenya’s wildlife, which helps attract $1 billion a year in tourism.
With elephant ivory sold for as much as $1,000 a kilogram in Hong
Kong, Kenya is facing its most serious threat from poaching in almost
a quarter of a century, according to the United Nations.

At least 232 elephants have been killed in the year to Sept. 30,
adding to 384 last year from a population of 40,000. Demand for
illicit ivory from expanding economies such as China and Thailand has
doubled since 2007, according to the UN Environment Programme.

Goss’s patch borders the Maasai Mara National Reserve, where
semi-nomadic tribesmen, known as the Maasai, wearing checked-red robes
herd their cows. On a warm morning he squints through the bush at a
tusk-less elephant carcass surrounded by 10 of its grieving family
members in the hills above the village of Aitong.

“It’s pretty grim,” Goss, a 28-year-old Kenyan who manages the Mara
Elephant Project, said as he stood 50 meters (55 yards) from the
carcass. “It’s an elephant without a face. It’ll be eaten by Hyenas
now.”

“Drones are basically the future of conservation; a drone can do what
50 rangers can do,” said James Hardy, a fourth-generation Kenyan and
manager of the Mara North Conservancy. “It’s going to reach a point
where drones are on the forefront of poaching. At night time we could
use it to pick up heat signatures of poachers, maybe a dead elephant
if we’re quick enough.”

East Africa is a key battleground against the poaching of elephants,
whose numbers in Africaare estimated between 419,000 and 650,000,
according to the 178-nation Convention on International Trade in
Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, better known as Cites.

Elephants in the Maasai Mara #Fairmont Safari Club #Video 641 days ago
http://www.twitpic.com/84alg2

Elephants in the Maasai #Mara #Fairmont safari club
http://www.twitpic.com/84a76s

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share eased 0.557% and has retreated 1.137% over 2
sessions and since setting an All Time High on Tuesday.
The All Share had rallied +7.1715% over 12 sessions through October 8th.
I do not expect the Correction Phase to be anything other than
shallow, orderly and mild.
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 0.99 points to close at 4947.00.
Equity Turnover was 617.136m of which 57.967% was transacted in Safaricom.
There were 22 Winners and 15 Losers today.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased a further 1% [making that a 4.225% Drawdown over 2
sessions and off an All Time Closing High of 9.40 on Tuesday this
week] to close at 9.00 and traded 39.745m shares worth 357.736m and
57.967% of the Total Volume traded at the Exchange. Safaricom is
+78.21% in 2013. The Bull Trend is very much in tact and The Chart
Pattern has been a classic Bull Formation since January 2012; i.e
higher Highs and higher Lows. We are currently in a long overdue Price
Correction ahead of a move towards 10.00 and probably coincident with
the Release of the H1 Earnings.

TPS Serena rallied +2.11% to close at 48.50 and traded 3,900 shares.
TPS Serena is deeply oversold at these Levels and Sell Side Volumes
real scrappy. Whilst Kenya Tourism Revenues were -10% in H1 2013
versus H1 2012, Serena accelerated H1 2013 Profit After Tax +17.078%.
TPS Serena is a geographically diversified Business and because it
represents the only listed Tourism Proxy, it tends to react quite
sharply to an event such as Westgate. I have a Fair Value Price of not
less than 60.00.

LongHorn Kenya rallied 3.65% to close at 14.20. LongHorn Kenya
announced a Publishing Deal with Malkiat Singh and Mr. Muli of Lonhorn
was quoted as saying;

“Mergers and acquisitions is one of the main strategies but we
currently do not have any firm in our sight. We want to first
consolidate our enhanced business before making the decision to
acquire any other firm.”



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank closed unchanged at 36.25 and traded 1.907m shares worth
69.49m. Equity Bank is +52.63% in 2013 and has corrected 2.684% off a
Record Closing High reached on Tuesday 8th October.
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 49.25 and traded 500,100
shares. Kenya Commercial Bank is +65.54% in 2013 and 0.5005% below a
Record Closing High reached on Tuesday 8th October.
Barclays Bank firmed +0.56% to close at 18.10 and traded 500,100
shares. There was Buy Side Demand at the Closing Bell for 345% more
shares than were traded during the session and underpinning the Price.
COOP Bank closed unchanged at 17.10 and traded 1.251m shares worth 21.426m.

Liberty Kenya Insurance rallied +3.0172% to close at 11.95 and traded
30,800 shares. Liberty Kenya trades on a 6.974 Trailing PE and
accelerated H1 2013 PAT +50.051%. It was good to catch up with Mike Du
Toit the Managing Director over a Coffee this morning.

Liberty Kenya share price data and H1 2013 Earnings
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTc%3D

Par Value:
Closing Price:           11.95
Total Shares Issued:          273680000.00
Market Capitalization:        3,174,688,000
EPS:             1.72
PE:                 6.744

H1 2013 Earnings through June 2013 versus June 2012
H1 PBT 481.540m versus 340.747m +41.3189%
H1 PAT 378.276m versus 252.097m +50.051%
H1 EPS 0.73 versus 0.49 +48.979%

BRITAM EA closed unchanged at 9.45 and traded 2.455m shares worth
23.295m. BRITAM has traded 7.42m shares over the last 2 sessions.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL eased 1.74% to close at 338.00 and traded 73,100 shares worth
24.716m. EABL had rallied +21.126% 1st September through 8th October
and the correction will be mild and shallow ahead of a run towards
360.00.

Mumias Sugar firmed +1.35% to close at 3.75 and was trading at Session
Highs of 3.85 +4.05% at the Closing Bell. Mumias Sugar traded 403,000
shares worth 1.527m. All the Negative News is baked into the Price.

KenolKobil rallied 3.75% to close at 8.30 and traded 133,100 shares.
There was Buy Side Demand at the Finish Line for 1,730% more shares
than were traded during the Session. Recent Heavy Volumes confirm a
Buyer or Buyers has absorbed all and any Supply Overhang at 8.00.
Total Kenya firmed a further 1.25% to close at 25.25 and traded 64,000
shares. Total Kenya has rallied +38.356% since the 1st of October.

Olympia Capital rallied +7.69% to close at 4.90 and traded 48,500 shares.

Express was high ticked +6.85% to close at 3.90 on 500 shares.

BOC Kenya was the biggest Loser at the Exchange today and retreated 8%
to close at 115.00 on light trading of 600 shares.

GEMS

Home Afrika rallied by its Daily Limit to close at 8.25 +10.00% and
traded heavy volume of 2.841m shares worth 23.438m. Home Afrika has
rebounded +32% since October 1st but admittedly off a 2013 Low. The
Heavy Volume seen on this Rebound is an important Price Discovery
Signal.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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