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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 11th of October 2013
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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I always enjoy my Breakfasts with Ian Donald @Nestlé EAR
Africa


Ian has shown a lot of Faith in me and I am very grateful. And more
than that for the Friendship in fact.

And this Morning he shared this Pooh and Piglet Cartoon with me

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'What day is it ?' asked Pooh 'It's today' squeaked Piglet 'My Favourite day' said Pooh
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"Like the children in fairy stories who have seen their parents make
pacts with terrifying strangers, who have discovered that our fears
are based on nothing but the truth, but who come back fresh from
marvellous escapes and take up their knives and forks, with humility
and good manners, prepared to live happily ever after -- like them,
dazed and powerful with secrets, I never said a word"
-- Alice Munro

The complexity of things - the things within things - just seems to be
endless. I mean nothing is easy, nothing is simple.

"There is a limit to the amount of misery and disarray you will put up
with, for love, just as there is a limit to the amount of mess you can
stand around a house. You can't know the limit beforehand, but you
will know when you've reached it. I believe this."

"Never underestimate the meanness in people's souls... Even when
they're being kind... especially when they're being kind."

read more


African nations meet today (Friday) to debate a possible withdrawal from the International Criminal Court over claims it targets Africa New Vision
Law & Politics


Former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan this week said Africa would be
wearing a "badge of shame" if its leaders voted to leave the world's
first permanent war crimes court.

"We believe any withdrawal from the ICC would send the wrong signal
about Africa's commitment to protect and promote human rights and
reject impunity," read the letter, which has been hailed by Human
Rights Watch.

The special summit starts with ministerial meetings on Friday before
heads of state join the debate at the AU's Addis Ababa headquarters on
Saturday.

Several countries, including Uganda, Rwanda and Ethiopia, have
publicly supported Kenya's stance against the ICC and the request to
transfer the trials to Africa.

"It is difficult to say that the whole membership of Africans will
pull-out, but it is possible that some countries will because they are
tired of the situation," Rwanda's ambassador to the AU, Joseph
Nsegimana, told AFP.

He claimed the ICC bias against Africa was clear, adding that the
court had only shown itself as a mechanism to target African suspects.

"The bias exists because it appears that the ICC is becoming more and
more a political tool rather than a justice court," he said.

All of the court's current eight cases are against Africans, prompting
the AU to accuse the ICC of "hunting" Africans, even though four of
those cases were referred to the court by the countries themselves.

But several African nations, including Botswana, South Africa, Nigeria
and Ghana, have expressed support for the ICC in the past, and are
seen as unlikely to withdraw now.

"I do not expect much out of the meeting other than a bit of moral
support and expressions of sympathy for the Kenyan government's
position," Peter J. Pham, director for the Africa Centre at the
Atlantic Council, told AFP.

But Pham said the ICC's refusal to transfer or defer the Kenyan cases,
particularly after Islamist gunmen massacred at least 67 people in a
Nairobi shopping mall last month, has demonstrated the "apparent
tone-deafness of the ICC to public perception" in Africa.

"By refusing even that reasonable accommodation, the court confirms
the worst fears of its critics and does little to reassure ordinary
Africans, thus further undermining its political legitimacy," Pham
added.

While the AU is not mandated to ask countries to withdraw from the
treaty that established the ICC, diplomats said Kenya's lobbying
campaign urging countries to pull out could gain some success

Among the 122 countries that are party to the Rome Statute, the ICC's
binding treaty, 34 are African -- the largest regional representation
within the court.

Conclusions

I expect the ICC to allow the President to participate via Video Link.
I think the New #Westgate dynamic puts President Kenyatta at the Front
Line of the Global War on Terror and that Counter Terrorism inflects
the Relationship between the Kenyatta Government and the US/UK/EU. The
ICC I think compromises and allows the Video Link.

read more



Ethiopian premier says Hague court has 'double standards' Reuters
Law & Politics


The International Criminal Court has shown "double standards" by
pursuing only Africans so far and should defer trials of Kenya's
leaders or take other steps so they can fulfill their elected offices,
Ethiopia's prime minister said on Thursday.

Hailemariam Desalegn was speaking before an African Union summit in
Addis Ababa that will discuss relations with the court which has
convicted only one man, an African warlord. The only others charged
are also Africans.

Hailemariam said the ICC was effective in pursuing the weak, but not
the powerful. "The bigger you are and powerful you are this instrument
does not work but the weaker you are and the instrument works. So that
double standard has to be avoided," he said, referring to the court's
failure to act beyond Africa.

An AU official had previously said Saturday's summit would discuss a
mass walkout by the African signatories to the court statute, a
position he said Kenya was lobbying for.

Hailemariam, who like Kenyan leaders has sent troops to Somalia, said
the mall attack was a "desperate action" by a group "at its weakest in
history".

That view is echoed by analysts, who say the raid may have been an
attempt to drum up support when the group has lost ground at the hands
of African troops. But they also say al Shabaab may have greater
capacity to strike abroad.

"You don't need to have more forces (in Somalia) to fight al Shabaab
at this time," Hailemariam said, when asked if he would boost the
Ethiopian presence there. "The only thing we need is support for the
Somali security forces to be strong."

This, he said, required a more concerted effort from the United States
and European countries with the capacity to offer such help, as well
as from Asian nations, such as China.

"I think if we strengthen the Somali security forces - with the
support of (African peacekeepers) AMISOM and Ethiopian forces - I
think it is possible to defeat al Shabaab. It is not something which
is so complex," he said.

Although his country shares a border with Somalia, Hailemariam said
militant ideas could be curbed provided the Ethiopian "people are
conscious enough to fight this extremism and terrorism".

Ethiopia has a Christian majority but about a third of its population
is Muslim. Some Muslims have complained the government has interfered
with religious affairs as it tries to stop what officials say is a
rise in Islamist ideology.

Hailemariam dismissed the criticism. "The government has nothing to do
with religion," he said. "The only thing we say is there is a red line
for any religion in the country which goes beyond the constitutional
provision."

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro  1.3572
Dollar Index 80.32
Japan Yen 98.36
Swiss Franc  0.9077
Pound 1.5986
Aussie 0.9475
India Rupee  61.07
South Korea Won 1071.60
Brazil Real  2.1804
Egypt Pound 6.8883
South Africa Rand 9.8928

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO  80.32
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 98.36
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3572
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

"I think for this year we're going to have certainly above 7.5 percent
growth rate," Yi was reported by Xinhua to have said in Washington.
"Maybe 7.6 percent (or) something like that." China Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/11/us-china-economy-growth-idUSBRE99A03P20131011

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1291.35
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 102.89
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.Z13.E&t=&a=&w=&v=d6

"Three Studies of Lucian Freud," a 1969 triptych by Francis Bacon.
The work, estimated at more than $85 million, is most valuable lot in
an auction of postwar and contemporary art at Christie's International

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-10/bacon-triptych-of-freud-may-sell-for-record-95-million.html

The smoked white sturgeon caviar is layered with flavors like
Dungeness crab and ember-roasted yams WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324354704578636241694780074

The raspberry marshmallow sorbet with Meyer lemon curd WSJ
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324354704578636241694780074

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Libyan Premier's Abduction Caps Year of Militia Mayhem Bloomberg
Africa


The abduction of Libya's Prime Minister Ali Zaidan marks a period of
just over a year in which the U.S. ambassador was killed, the French
and Russian embassies were attacked, military officers were
assassinated and oil output slumped. Security is unlikely to improve
any time soon.

Zaidan was freed hours after he was held by the country's anti-crime
unit at a Tripoli hotel and went back to his office, the state-run
Libyan News Agency reported. Abu Bakr Abdel-Qader, a member of
parliament's national security committee, said Zaidan's detention
today amounted to "a military coup," the Press Solidarity news service
cited him as saying. The arrest was the result of "political
maneuvering," LANA said.

"If you want to be taken seriously by the government and get your
demands listened to, the message being sent is that you have to be in
control of an important asset or person," said Firas Abi Ali, head of
Middle East and North Africa analysis at political risk company IHS
Country Risk, in an interview. "There is no reason to believe the
government's control over the country will improve over the next year.
This is becoming more and more of a vicious cycle."

Libya enjoyed a burst of unity after the 2011 NATO-backed war that
ousted Muammar Qaddafi and during the first fully democratic vote in
more than 50 years a year later. Since then, militias from Benghazi,
Misrata and Zintan, who led fighting against Qaddafi, have been using
force to exact political concessions and to seek a looser federation.
Radical Islamists have meanwhile been attempting to carve out a base
in the east.

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron spoke to Zaidan after his
release and found him "calm and very measured throughout the call,"
according to the Downing Street spokesman. Secretary of State John
Kerry said told reporters in Kuala Lumpur that American embassy
personnel are secure and "we're confident about our abilities to keep
them in that security."

The group that held Zaidan denied reports the abduction was a response
to a U.S. military operation this week that seized alleged al-Qaeda
fugitive Abu Anas al-Libi, who was detained in a Tripoli suburb.

Abi Ali said the U.S. action probably contributed to Zaidan's
detention, "then the various groups involved realized that linking the
capture of the prime minister to the capture of a terrorist put them
in a bad light."

It's not the first time Zaidan has been targeted. About 30 militiamen
attempted to storm his office in Tripoli in March and were thwarted by
Interior Ministry security forces.

"The government is in real trouble," said Faraj Najem, a Libyan
political analyst, who teaches at the University of Benghazi, in an
interview from Tripoli. "There is money going around, there are plenty
of homes, weapons, so people feel empowered and that's dangerous."

The decline of security in Libya was starkly illustrated by the death
of the U.S. ambassador to the country and three other Americans in
Benghazi on Sept. 11, 2012, as militiamen assaulted the consulate.

Since then, oil production has slumped to 300,000 barrels a month last
month, the lowest since the 2011 war, oil ports have been closed by
strikes, half the French embassy was destroyed by a car bomb in April,
a jail break freed 1,200 prisoners from Benghazi prison in July, a
police colonel and a retired air force officer were murdered the same
month and Russia's embassy was attacked by armed men last week.

"When Zaidan came to office, he was seen as taking a hard line against
militias and people liked him but then he realized he doesn't have the
power required to deal with them," IHS Country Risk's Abi Ali said.
Now, Zaidan is seen as unable to conciliate or confront the militias,
he said.

Libya's economy may expand 0.7 percent this year, HSBC said in a
report this week, compared with a forecast of 15.9 percent three
months ago, after the oil protests. The oil and natural gas industry,
which makes up more than 70 percent of Libya's economy, generates
almost all the state's revenue.

The unrest has also delayed the drafting of a new constitution and
elections for a permanent government.

The best scenario would be for a federal constitution that designates
militias as police forces held accountable by regional authorities,
with the central government devolving power to the regions, Abi Ali
said. Making them part of the central government has already failed.

One of the worst scenarios would see foreign energy companies starting
to withdraw, cutting the pool of security contracts at oil
installations, hitting militia incomes and increasing the risk of
inter-group fighting, Abi Ali said. That in turn would force more
foreign companies to leave.

"The longer the political deadlock continues, the more the likelihood
that this becomes the scenario," he said. "This would also prompt the
east to try to secede, though there's no guarantee that this would
succeed."

read more



"People are back inside their homes for now," said Betul el-Refaei, whose father remains incarcerated. "But they're boiling with anger."
Africa


French special forces killed around 10 militants in a gun battle in
northern Mali this month, Paris said on Thursday

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/10/us-mali-crisis-france-idUSBRE9990MC20131010

French special forces battled "armed terrorist groups" on October 1 in
the village of Douaya, north of Timbuktu, after receiving intelligence
suggesting militants were in the area, Jaron said.

Militants opened fire from a pick-up truck on a French helicopter, he
said. Suspected Islamists in other vehicles escaped.

"Four hours after the start of the clashes, a large number of
terrorists were neutralized, by that we mean around 10 fighters,"
Jaron said. "They all fought to the end without wanting to surrender
at any point."

A French diplomatic source said: "The contest is not over. The
terrorist groups are not completely stupid, they have been waiting for
the storm to pass and they are now sensing their opportunity."

A MINUSMA source said 12 pickups with suspected Islamist militants had
been sighted about 60 km (40 miles) west of Timbuktu in early October.

A local Tuareg source also said that several units linked to al
Qaeda's north African arm AQIM had gathered in the region.

Wood Mackenzie expects Mozambique to export its first LNG cargo by
2019, while Tanzania will have to wait until 2021 Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/10/energy-gas-africa-idUSL5N0HM2Q020131010

Mozambique and Tanzania are locked in a race to be first to export gas
from East Africa, but a bigger battle awaits as the United States and
others gear up for a share of the global gas market.

"Mozambique and Tanzania need to move fast to become major exporters,"
shipping research group Lloyd's List Intelligence said in a recent
report.

"The clock is ticking for both nations, as global shale gas exports
threaten to saturate the marketsbefore either has had time to export
any gas."

Britain's BG Group and Ophir Energy have been at the forefront of
exploration in Tanzania, and energy majors Exxon Mobil and Statoil
have also found gas.

"We think East Africa has a very competitive cost base," said Mike
Fisher, Ophir's chief operating officer, but he noted that after 2020
it may become more difficult to clinch good prices for supply deals as
increased supply could weaken prices.

Drilling in Tanzania has so far shown reserves of over 1 trillion
cubic metres (tcm), twice Europe's annual demand.

In Mozambique, exploration efforts are being spearheaded by Italy's
ENI and U.S.-based Andarko Petroleum, with drilling producing results
showing reserves of more than 3 tcm.

Many analysts put Mozambique's first LNG exports at around 55 billion
cm per year, which would amount to annual revenues of over $30 billion
at current spot LNG prices paid in Asia, where Mozambique plans to
sell.

That would make Mozambique one of the world's top global LNG
exporters, trailing Qatar but competing with new suppliers Australia
and the United States.

"African gas producers certainly do not represent a risk-free
alternative," said Amy Gibbs at political risk insurer Jardine Lloyd
Thompson.

Mozambique's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to post growth
of 7.1% in 2013 and reach a peak of 15% in 2020

http://www.miningreview.com/node/22765

BMI said that the Mozambican economy would be the fastest growing
economy in the world in the next decade, with accumulated GDP growth
of 158.8% by 2022, or almost twice the projection for China (80.6%).

read more




Despite its large and growing population controlling about 15 percent of the world population, the gross asset value of real estate in Africa is only EURO 113 billion or 1 percent of the world's total value
Africa


The man who led the mining giant Lonmin at the time of the Marikana massacre
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/10/mining-boss-condemns-police-marikana-massacre

The man who led the mining giant Lonmin at the time of the Marikana
massacre has broken his silence to apologise to the victims' families
and condemn the actions of South African police.

In his first interview since last year's tragedy in which 34
mineworkers were gunned down, Ian Farmer said he understood the police
were working in an "extremely difficult" environment of inter-union
rivalry and tit-for-tat violence.

But the former chief executive told the Guardian: "Quite frankly it
was wrong and they handled it badly on the day. There's no other way
to describe an incident in which 34 people were killed."

Campaigners have accused UK-based Lonmin of encouraging the brutal
police intervention. Farmer said he was absent at the time, having
just been diagnosed with cancer, but such collusion would be "totally
alien to the way Lonmin operated. I can't see that happening."

Farmer, 51, quit Lonmin late last year because of his illness.
Recalling an extraordinary collision of personal and public tragedies,
he told a conference in London on Tuesday: "Let me tell you about a
week that changed my life and the course of history of a nation. On
Monday 13th August 2012 I was rushed into hospital with acute back
pain and kidney failure. For the next few days my life was literally
in the balance. On Wednesday 15th I was diagnosed as having multiple
myeloma, a bone marrow cancer.

"The very next day, Thursday 16th, 34 of my company's employees were
shot by the police at Marikana. The news coverage was both prolific
and horrific."

Farmer spent 26 years working for Lonmin, including four as chief
executive. "I loved the job and I threw my heart and soul into it, but
I feel that I clearly I let my company and my people down that week
and at every opportunity I convey my heartfelt apologies to the loved
ones of those families affected."

He received treatment at the Royal Marsden hospital in London, and he
told delegates his cancer was now in remission. But he said South
Africa's mining sector "feels like it is perpetually in intensive
care" and "is still extremely fragile".

Speaking in a personal capacity at the innovaBRICS & Beyond
conference, he noted the difficult global economic conditions that
contributed to Lonmin making losses in two of the last five years and
shedding 6,000 jobs. But nearly 20 years into democracy, South Africa
in particular had an unpredictable climate that risked scaring away
foreign investment, Farmer said.

"The rainbow nation's honeymoon period has ended. As a result of stark
inequalities in society and high unemployment levels, particularly
among the youth, the ANC government influenced by its alliance
partners is constantly tinkering with the regulatory environment and a
creeping sense of narrow black nationalism risks eroding the rainbow
nation image.

"Many investors see South Africa as just all too difficult to get your
mind around. Death by a thousand cuts is an expression I have heard
used by investors and we have recently seen disinvestment, downgrades
by rating agencies and the cost of capital creep upwards."

He went on: "Admirably, leadership in South Africa is in many cases
made up of people who participated in the liberation struggle and have
devoted their lives to their country. However, elements of the
colonial and apartheid legacies still linger in the shadows and
distrust remains between business and government, and business and
organised labour.

"Consequently there is still a culture of blame, and this gets in the
way of constructive dialogue. Problems are further compounded by a
lack of implementation capacity in the governments ranks. The country
does, however, have a vibrant civil society sector that seeks to keep
both government and business on their toes."

A fierce turf war between rival unions at Lonmin was also a factor in
the disaster, he acknowledged. "We all underestimated the risk this
competition posed and it ignited with violent and tragic consequences
in an altercation with the police on August 16th 2012. The industrial
relations landscape has been fractured ever since.

"My illness and absence from the helm of the company at this critical
time left Lonmin rudderless at a critical moment. Would my presence
have made a difference? This is a question that I will keep asking
myself until my dying day.

"Could more have been done with regards to social issues such as
working conditions and housing? Clearly the answer to this question
must be yes, but on its own this was not in my opinion a primary
factor."

South Africa Plans to Take 20% Free Stake in New Oil Projects
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-10/south-africa-plans-to-take-20-free-stake-in-new-oil-projects.html

South Africa's government plans to take a 20 percent free stake in all
new oil and gas ventures and reserve the right to buy a further 30
percent at market-related rates, Mineral Resources Susan Shabangu
said.

The state gave notice of its intention to take a share of all new
energy projects when it published planned amendments to the 2002
Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act last year. At public
hearings held in Parliament last month, companies including Exxon
Mobil Corp. (XOM)and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) criticized the draft
law for failing to specify what size stake will have to be ceded, and
said a lack of certainty will deter investment.

"The first 20 percent will be the free carried part by the state,"
Shabangu told reporters today inPretoria, the capital. While the
government will be able to increase its interest to 50 percent, it
will have to acquire 30 percent at market-related prices, she said.

"For a country to attract investment in the exploration of oil and
gas, the financial risks need to be balanced with stable and
transparent legislation that provides benefits to investors and meets
the country's aspirations," Shell said in a Sept. 11 submission to
lawmakers. The bill's deficiencies "could lead to significant delays
in planned investment."

Parliament's mineral resources committee is due to resume its
deliberations on the new law on Oct. 22.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +13.62% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 9.8824
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8871
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg  +11.13% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +35.67% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg  +72.07% 2013 a Record High

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Fear, tension prevail in Somali seaside town raided by SEAL commandoes WAPO
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/fear-tension-prevail-in-somali-seaside-town-raided-by-seal-commandoes/2013/10/10/99b9bef8-31ac-11e3-ad00-ec4c6b31cbed_story.html

The al-Shabab stronghold of Barawe, a coastal town in Somalia where
U.S. Navy SEALs came ashore in a failed raid last weekend, is gripped
by fear and tension as residents worry they'll be accused of spying
and the insurgents ready for another attack.

Foreign fighters and Somali members of al-Shabab have in recent years
moved into the town, edged by red desert and emerald seas, as African
Union peacekeeping troops and Somali government forces pushed the
Islamic insurgent group from Somalia's capital and other areas.

Since the SEAL raid, more al-Shabab battle wagons -- pickup trucks
mounted with machine guns or recoilless rifles -- can be seen prowling
the sandy streets of the town, residents say.

Most of the residents of Barawe, a town which has existed for more
than five centuries, rely on fishing and small businesses for income.
Al-Shabab maintains strict control of the activities and life of local
residents who are told to close shops and other businesses to attend
the five daily Muslim prayers at mosques.

Residents told The Associated Press by phone that after the SEAL raid
on a seaside villa, al-Shabab fighters detained several people on
suspicion of spying, an allegation that often leads to public
executions without any meaningful judicial process.

"We are really scared. Sounds like they think everyone is spy," said
Noh, a resident who did not want to have his surname used out of fear
of reprisals.

Barawe, which lies on Somalia's southeast coast between Mogadishu and
the Kenyan border, has been under the control of al-Shabab since 2009,
when Ethiopian troops pulled out of southern and central Somalia. The
militants named a mayor of the city, which is a militant training
ground and economic hub.

A July report by the U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia said that
al-Shabab has a "suicide training school" near Barawe.

The town hosts the largest number of foreign fighters in Somalia, most
often from Kenya, Yemen and Sudan. In September 2012, militants
publicly executed two men they accused of spying for African Union
forces. In February the bodies of two beheaded men were found, likely
killed by militants who suspected them of having links with the
government, the U.N. report said.

Barawe's port is a money-maker for the insurgent group, used by ships
bringing in illegal weapons and shipping out charcoal -- between
600,000 and 1 million sacks per month, according to a U.N. estimate.
Each sack is charged a $2 tax, netting between $1.2 million and $2
million a month for al-Shabab.

Since al-Shabab lost control of the port city of Kismayo, the Barawe
income and taxes provide an important economic base for al-Shabab,
which provides no social services to residents. The fighters have been
able to maintain control of the town and its crumbling, arched
buildings because the African Union and Somali government forces are
too thinly spread to try to invade.

Saturday's SEAL raid occurred 20 years after the "Black Hawk Down"
battle in Mogadishu in which a mission to capture Somali warlords in
the capital went awry after militiamen shot down two U.S. helicopters.
Eighteen U.S. soldiers were killed in the battle, which marked the
beginning of the end of that U.S. military mission to bring stability
to the Horn of Africa nation.

In 1991, warlords overthrew a longtime dictator and turned on each
other, plunging Somalia into chaos.

Barawe Somalia
http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/69339891.jpg

Ethiopia's economy grew 9.7 percent in the 2012/13 fiscal year, below
the 11 percent initially expected

http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/ethiopias-economy-grew-97-pct-in-201213-missing-target.html

Ethiopia's economy grew 9.7 percent in the 2012/13 fiscal year, below
the 11 percent initially expected, held back by lower than expected
prices for its main exports, a senior government official said on
Wednesday.

Agriculture accounted for 43 percent of output.

Ethiopia, whose biggest export crop is coffee, saw its overall exports
dip to less than $3 billion from $3.15 billion in the previous year.

The World Bank says international prices for coffee declined by about
a third during the year under review.

Heavy public spending on infrastructure helped to boost growth to 8.5
percent in 2011/12, making Ethiopia one of Africa's fastest growing
economies.

Year-on-year inflation averaged 20 percent in 2011/12, but it has
since been falling, standing at 8.7 percent last month.

The International Monetary Fund said this year that balance of
payments pressures and the difficulties faced by the private sector
raised doubts about the sustainability of Ethiopia's growth model.

Private investment in Ethiopia as a share of GDP is the sixth lowest
in the world.

Baobab trees in Madagascar. An average of 500 cases of bubonic
plague have been recorded on the island every year since 2009.
Photograph: He Xianfeng/Xinhua Press/Corbis

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/10/bubonic-plague-outbreak-madagascar-rats-jails

Animals tracked with tiny tags summon their own drones New Scientist
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029383.800-animals-tracked-with-tiny-tags-summon-their-own-drones.html#.Ula1k78RyX1

IN A dark, rainy forest on New Zealand's Great Barrier Island,
zoologist Robin Freeman waited. And waited. He spent two weeks in 2008
on a stakeout in anticipation of a black petrel. It was due back at
its nest - and with it, the expensive GPS data logger it was wearing.
All along, one thought nagged at Freeman: "There must be a better way
of doing this."

And now there is. Using Freeman's subsequent work on GPS-tag
miniaturisation, engineers at Microsoft Research in Cambridge, UK,
last week introduced a new generation of tracking tags that can be
interrogated from the air by drones. On sensing a weak signal from one
postage-stamp-sized tag fixed to an animal, a drone can fly towards
the creature on autopilot and retrieve the tag's data.But that's not
all. The tags contain networking hardware that allows them to contact
each other and send their data from one tag to the next until the
information reaches a tag within range of a base station, which could
be attached to a fixed antenna or to a drone. "So obtaining data from
a single member of a tracked wolf pack could result in all the data
for the individuals it has been in contact with," says Freeman, who is
now with the Zoological Society of London, which is working alongside
University College London and Microsoft in a venture called Technology
For Nature.

"Drones can fly around listening for the 'heartbeats' of the tags,"
says Lucas Joppa, the Microsoft team's leader. "Once the autopilot
flies it to the animal, the drone can turn on its high-definition
cameras and start getting a more holistic sense of what's going on."

In the Republic of the Congo, the Wildlife Conservation Society will
monitor the migration of hammerhead fruit bats, which are suspected of
carrying the Ebola virus. The idea is to look out for moments when the
bats encounter local ape populations and may transmit the disease,
says spokesman Ken Cameron. The Seychelles Islands Foundation (SIF),
meanwhile, aims to use the system to study the little-known giant
bronze gecko, Ailuronyx trachygaster, which was discovered in 2002.

The Zambian Carnivore Programme (ZCP), based in Mfuwe, will probably
run the first field test for the drones. The ZCP works in several
parks around the country and is studying the effects of poaching and
snaring on populations of African wild dogs and cheetahs, which are
hunted for their meat. "Ground tracking alone has proven to be a big
obstacle in Kafue National Park due to the habitat, limited road
network and wide-ranging behaviour of cheetahs and wild dogs," says
Paul Schuette, a research ecologist with the ZCP. "So we are exploring
options for unmanned aerial vehicles." It plans to start tests in
2014.

The tags use a suite of sensors to log a creature's GPS position and
direction of movement. Such information allows researchers to look for
movement signatures that indicate when the animal is hunting, eating
or scavenging. If it is killed by a poacher, or poisoned by a
pesticide, motion will cease. Likewise, sensors that measure
temperature, humidity and elevation can help researchers deduce if a
changing climate is altering an animal's range.

read more


FBI finds that Kenya airport fire was caused by electrical fault, Kenya's presidency says WAPO
Kenyan Economy


The Kenyan government says the FBI has determined that a massive fire
that engulfed Nairobi's international airport in August was caused by
an electrical fault.

Kenya's presidency said that U.S. Ambassador Robert Godec shared the
FBI's finding during a meeting with President Uhuru Kenyatta on
Wednesday. The fire gutted the arrivals hall at Jomo Kenyatta
International Airport.

Kenya's presidency said that Godec, who was summoned to the meeting
with Kenyatta, pledged U.S. assistance to Kenya to help fight
terrorism.

read more



Kenya Power reports FY PAT 2013 -5.73% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  20/-
Closing Price:           14.60
Total Shares Issued:          1951467045.00
Market Capitalization:        28,491,418,857
EPS:             2.23
PE:                 6.547

The energy company in charge of national transmission, distribution
and retail of electricity throughout Kenya.

FY Earnings through 30th June 2012
FY Revenue 47.916b versus 45.008b +6.46%
FX Losses recovered 5.120b versus 6.094b
KPLC Operations 4.102b versus 2.665b
Fuel Cost Recovery 31.771b versus 41.896b
FY Revenue 88.909b versus 95.663b
Power Purchase Costs
Fuel Costs 32.297b versus 42.789b -24.52%
Total Power Purchase Costs 62.178b versus 69.963b
FY Gross Margin 26.731b versus 25.700b
FY Other Revenue 3.192b versus 1.788b +78.52%
FY Transmission and Distribution Costs [21.13b] versus [19.68b]
FY Operating Profit 8.793b versus 7.808b
FY Finance Costs [2.495b] [1.216b] +105.18%
Net FY Foreign Exchange gains [Losses] 15m versus 1.425b [This was a
1.410b swing]
FY PBT 6.424b versus 8.506b -24.476%
FY PAT 4.352b versus 4.617b -5.73%
FY EPS 2.23 versus 2.36- 5.508%
FY Dividend 0.00 versus 0.50

Company Commentary
Company citing ''higher finance costs and lower unrealised Foreign
Exchange revaluation gains''
Electricity Sales grew +3.2% from 5,991 million units to 6,184 million Units
Increased generation from Hydro Plants from 3,450GWh to 4,340GWh

Conclusions

The Lack of a Dividend Payment might impact the Price in the near term.
Finance Costs and 1.425b FX Gain in FY 2012 which was not repeated in
FY 2013 also crimped Earnings.
There is a very Big Capex Program on the Horizon and the Question is
how KPLC goes about funding that.
The Company had been looking to do quite a sharp Tarriff Increase but
I think politically it is practically impossible.
Therefore, I expect some kind of aggressive Bond Issuance Program going forward.

read more


Photos from Kenya's Amboseli National Park. WSJ
Kenyan Economy


Elephants 1st September 2013 Amboseli Kenya #Handsoffourelephants

http://www.twitpic.com/dbgsuv

Zebra Crossing Amboseli
http://www.twitpic.com/dclac8

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 85.147
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +39.784% 2013
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +19.695% 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

#Mindspeak with Domenico Fanizza and Ragnar Gudmundsson @IMFNews
#KenyaTakeoff RICH TV

http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php

#Mindspeak 2013 RICH TV

http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php

@DReynders @HabilOlaka @patriciaithau1 @johngithongo @MaggieIreri

Rich Interviews in 2013 RICH TV

http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtvi.php

Charlie Robertson Renaissance Capital's Global Chief Economist.
Prof.Njuguna Ndung'u Governor, Central Bank of Kenya
Ayisi Makatiani-Managing Partner-Fanisi Capital
One on One with EABL Group Managing Director and CEO; Charles Ireland
One on one with chief financial officer @KenyaAirways- Alex Mbugua
One on one with @Kenyaairways #KQ C.E.O Dr. Titus Naikuni
 interview with Safaricom C.E.O @BobCollymore
Interview with @KCBGroup CEO Joshua Oigara

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share eased 0.15% to close at 131.87.
The Nairobi All Share is +39.015% in 2013.
The Nairobi All Share set a Sequence of 4 consecutive All Time Closing
Highs on the 3rd, 4th, 7th, 8th October.
The All Share rallied +7.1715% over 12 sessions through October 8th
and since Westgate.
The All Share has retreated 1.2949% since Tuesday and over 3 sessions.
The Bull Market is very much in tact and the Violence of the 12
Session Bull Move after Westgate and the shallowness of the 3 day
Correction subsequently affirms the bona fides of the Bull Market.
Edwin Lefevre famously said 'The Tape is your Telescope' and there The
Tape here in Nairobi has been counterintuitive and a very bullish
Signifier.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased 17.39 points to close at 4929.82.
The Nairobi NSE20 is 2.007% below a 2013 and more than 5 Year High
reached earlier this Year.
Equity Turnover was 1.015b and Safaricom traded 55.108% of that Volume.
There were 17 Winners and 21 Losers at the Exchange today.
KPLC released FY Earnings.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Rea Vipingo was the biggest Gainer at the Securities Exchange and
rallied +5.56% to close at 28.50 and traded 50,600 shares. Rea Vipingo
trades on a Trailing PE of 4.495 and remains inexpensive.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 9.00 and traded 62.118m shares [making
that a cumulative Total of 101.863m shares over the last 2 sessions]
worth 559.382m and 55.108% of the Turnover at the Securities Exchange
today. Safaricom rallied +86.13% to a Record High through October 8th.
Subsequently, Safaricom has corrected 4.255% over three sessions. The
High Volume Action seen at 9.00 and over the last 2 sessions confirms
the Price is now underwritten at these Levels. I see a Move to 10.00
ahead of or coincident with the release of H1 Earnings in November.

Kenya Airways closed unchanged at 10.40 and traded 151,500 shares.
Kenya Airways rallied sharply through 10.00 before taking a Pause.
10.00 which had proven Chart Resistance since June this year is now
support and I project a mover to 12.00+.

Nation Media was low ticked 3.13% to close at 310.00 and traded 800 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank closed unchanged at 36.25 and traded 2.622m shares worth
95.085m. Equity Bank is +52.63% in 2013 and has corrected 2.684% off a
Record Closing High reached on Tuesday 8th October when Equity, Kenya
Commercial Bank and Safaricom set All Time Highs.
Kenya Commercial Bank eased 1.522% to close at 48.50 and traded
117,300 shares. KCB is +63.02% in 2013 and has corrected 2.512% off a
Record Closing High reached on Tuesday 8th October.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Kenya Power KPLC released FY Earnings before the Opening Bell. KPLC
reported a -5.73% Decline in Full Year 2013 Profit After Tax. FY
Revenues expanded +6.46%, FY Earnings Per Share declined -5.508% to
2.23 a share. KPLC skipped the Dividend and this might have caught
some off-guard. The Company cited Higher Finance Costs [+105.18% to
2.495b] and a lower unrealised foreign exchange revaluation Gains
[KPLC had enjoyed a 1.425b FX Gain in FY 2013 which was not repeated
in 2013] as reasons for crimping Earnings. Investors I feel are keenly
awaiting the Management Plan for Financing what is an ambitious
Scaling Up Program. Kenya Power retreated 3.42% to close at 14.10 and
traded 388,200 shares. KPLC trades on a PE of 6.322 and thats
inexpensive and hence whilst todays move was a probably a reaction to
the skipped Dividend, I cannot see the Price trade much lower than
here.

KenGen firmed 1.49% to close at 17.00 and was trading at 17.50 +4.48%
at the Finish Line. KenGen traded 242,900 shares. KenGen is +92.09% in
2013.

Athi River Cement firmed +2.68% to close at 76.50 and traded 1.184m
shares worth 90.813m. Athi River is +70.75% in 2013, trades on a
Trailing PE of  30.478 and Pradeep Paunrana gave FY Earnings Guidance
to Reuters recently where he projected a +35% Year on Year Earnings
Gain.
Bamburi Cement closed unchanged at 210.00 and traded 303,800 shares
worth 63.893m.
East African Portland Cement traded 600 shares at 64.00 -1.54%.

GEMS

Home Afrika rallied a further +4.85% to close at 8.65 and traded
2.507m shares. Home Afrika has rallied +38.4% since the 1st of
October, off a Post Listing Low of 6.25 and on very heavy action.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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