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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 16th of October 2013

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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Inside Story : Where are Africa's leaders? @AJEnglish @JaneDutton

To discuss this, Inside Story, with presenter Jane Dutton, is joined
by guests: Denis Kodhe, a commentator on African governance and
politics; Ayo Johnson, an award-winning journalist on African
development; and Aly-Khan Satchu, the CEO of Rich Management in

Macro Thoughts

The US is determined on the Path of Self-Harm.

Home Thoughts

Our Boy's Night relocated yesterday to @Peter_Kenneth 's Office where
on the 9th Floor he has a super 360 degree View over Nairobi.

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THE ROVING EYE The birth of the 'de-Americanized' world By Pepe Escobar
Law & Politics

The (diplomatic) gloves are off. It's time to build a
"de-Americanized" world. It's time for a "new international reserve
currency" to replace the US dollar.

''Instead of honoring its duties as a responsible leading power, a
self-serving Washington has abused its superpower status and
introduced even more chaos into the world by shifting financial risks
overseas, instigating regional tensions amid territorial disputes, and
fighting unwarranted wars under the cover of outright lies.''

Note that Beijing is not advocating completely smashing the Bretton
Woods system - at least for now, but it is for having more deciding

Arrests have been made following massive anti-government protests in
an eastern Chinese city hit by catastrophic flooding, an official
newspaper has said. @AJELive


Residents in Yuyao smashed police vans and blocked a local TV vehicle [Reuters]

Arrests have been made following massive anti-government protests in
an eastern Chinese city hit by catastrophic flooding, an official
newspaper has said.

Thousands took part in the protest on Tuesday in the Zhejiang province
city of Yuyao and an undisclosed number were arrested for "radical
acts,'' including pelting police with bricks and turning over
government vehicles, the official English-language Global Times
reported on Wednesday.

It said residents were angered over an allegedly botched response to
the flooding, the worst in decades, and the slow restoration of
electricity and other basic services.


Folks underplay the Fact that this kind of Protest has been spiking
for a while.

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China Presses U.S. to Lift Debt Limit as Tea Party Says Butt Out
International Trade

The U.S. must “shoulder its responsibility” as the world’s biggest
economy and holder of the main reserve currency and “take concrete
measures before Oct. 17 to avoid a default,” Deputy Finance Minister
Zhu Guangyao said at a briefing with reporters yesterday in Beijing in
which he referred to “the attitude of the Tea Party.”

Lawmakers tied to the Tea Party didn’t appreciate the advice, even
from a nation that holds almost a quarter of foreign-owned Treasuries
-- $1.28 trillion as of July.

“They need to stay out of our politics,” Representative Blake
Farenthold, a Tea Party-backed Texas Republican, said in an interview.
China’s criticism “almost sounds like a threat,” said Representative
Ted Yoho, a Florida Republican. “For them to say something derogatory
about the Tea Party, I take offense to that.”

Fitch warns it may cut U.S. credit rating from AAA

read more

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3536
Dollar Index 80.44
Japan Yen 98.40 Failure to reach a deal would probably see the dollar
weaken “pretty quickly” toward the 96 yen level, said Jim Vrondas
Swiss Franc 0.9122
Pound 1.6026 Sterling appreciated 3.7 percent in the past three months
Aussie 0.9541
India Rupee 61.835
South Korea Won 1066.64 reached 1,065.44, the strongest level since Jan. 23.
Brazil Real 2.1846
Egypt Pound 6.8910
South Africa Rand 9.9680

The dollar weakened 0.8 percent in the past month, according to
Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes that track 10 developed-nation
currencies. The yen is little changed, while the euro strengthened 0.9

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.44

“The broad view is that whatever is going on in terms of the political
spat, there will be a deal,” said Gavin Friend


Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 98.40

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3536

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1277.00

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 101.52 [Aims at 100.00 until and unless
@BarackObama and @HassanRouhani Love Tryst sours]


Silver Car Crash (Double Disaster), signed by Warhol and dated
1963, is the only one of four car crash paintings on this scale, from
the artist’s seminal Death and Disasters series


read more

Malawi’s President Banda Grapples With ‘Cash-Gate’ Bloomberg

Malawian President Joyce Banda is struggling to assuage donor and
public demands for a crackdown on corruption that may tarnish members
of her People’s Party and undermine her chances in May elections.

The European Union has threatened to withhold the release of a 29
million-euro ($39 million) aid payment in December unless the
government deals with corruption allegations, dubbed “cash-gate” by
Malawi’s media. While Banda, 63, has set up a special unit of police
and government officials to audit state finances, she hasn’t agreed to
calls by donors, which fund about 40 percent of the budget, to enlist
foreign investigators.

“She may have to capitulate on foreign auditors to placate donors, and
that may weaken her chances if party members are implicated,” Simiso
Velempini, a southern African analyst at Control Risks Ltd., said
yesterday in an interview from London.

The deputy head of the state Anti-Corruption Bureau, Victor Banda,
said the body has failed to make much progress in graft investigations
“because most of those arrested on corruption charges have opted to
remain silent.”

The EU ambassador to Malawi, Alexander Baum, has said foreign auditors
are needed to investigate pilfering of state funds.

“All this massive looting was happening under the nose of the Auditor
General’s office and the malpractice was not detected or dissolved,”
he told reporters on Oct. 11. “The integrity of the institution is
already under question and if the government wants results of the
forensic audit to be wholly accepted by the donors and Malawians, then
external auditors need to be taken on board.”


“Cash-gate” may define Banda’s presidency, said Velempini of Control Risks.

“If she doesn’t act against corruption swiftly, she risks being seen
as a weak leader,” Velempini said. “Banda’s future depends on how she
handles this scandal.”

"Let's make up with the mother that feeds us! President Hollande we
want your help!" read one banner as cheering locals welcomed France's
foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, to Central African Republic at the


Angola's Dos Santos says relations with Portugal 'not well'


Angola's President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos said on Tuesday his
country's relationship with Portugal, its former colonial ruler and
one of its main trading partners, was "not well" and not conducive to
the creation of a planned strategic partnership.

Portugal is Angola's main source of imports and Portuguese companies
play a large role in banking and construction in the African country,
while Angolan investors have snapped up large stakes in top
Lisbon-listed companies.

"Only with Portugal, regrettably, are things not well," Dos Santos
told parliament.

"There have appeared contradictions at the level of the leadership and
the current political climate in the relationship does not advise the
construction of the strategic partnership," Dos Santos said.

Tensions became apparent last month after Portugal's foreign minister
apologized for legal probes by Lisbon into business deals involving
senior Angolan officials. Portuguese opposition parties have called
for the minister to resign.

Dos Santos also said his government had cut its economic growth
estimate for 2013 to 5.1 percent from 7.1 percent due to a long
drought, lower-than-expected growth in the oil sector, "bad
management" of public debt and a weak global economy.

Angola says has 4 bln barrels more in oil reserves than OPEC estimate


Angola has 13 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, a top oil
official from the African nation said, nearly 4 billion barrels more
than an OPEC estimate for late 2012.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose estimates
on the oil reserves of its members often differ from the countries'
own numbers, has said Angola had 9.1 billion barrels of oil reserves
at the end of last year (www.opec.org).

Moody’s Flags Downgrade Risk on BMW Retreat Bloomberg


Moody’s rates South African debt at Baa1, the third-lowest
investment-grade level and on par with Thailand and Russia. S&P
downgraded the nation in October last year to BBB, its second-lowest
investment grade, and Fitch followed with a similar cut in January.
Moody’s and S&P have a negative outlook on the rating, indicating they
may lower it further.

A year after Moody’s Investors Service cut South Africa’s
creditworthiness for the first time since the end of apartheid, the
ratings company highlighted the risk of another downgrade as labor
unrest dents growth.

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW)’s decision earlier this month to
halt expansion in Africa’s biggest economy following a three-week
strike is evidence that labor strife is undermining growth, and other
companies may follow, Moody’s said in a report on Oct. 12. Moody’s
last downgrade came a month before Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s
2012 mid-term budget and was followed by rating cuts by Standard &
Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. Gordhan will update his growth and fiscal
projections on Oct. 23.

BMW, the world’s largest maker of luxury vehicles, said on Oct. 3 it
will cancel plans to expand following labor strikes that cost the
industry as much as 700 million rand ($70 million) a day, according to
the Automobile Manufacturers Employers Association.

The move “is tangible evidence of the negative impact that the
increase in work days lost to strikes is likely to pose for the
economy,” Moody’s said. “Such decisions are likely to be repeated by
other companies when such significant losses are incurred.”

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +16.21% 2013


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 9.9684 [-15% this year]


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +12.16% [33 Month Highs]


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +36% 2013


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Nigeria: Deaths of hundreds of Boko Haram suspects in custody requires investigation Amnesty

A large proportion of these deaths are reported to have happened in
Giwa military barracks, Maiduguri in Borno State and Sector Alpha,
commonly referred to as ‘Guantanamo’ and Presidential Lodge (known as
‘Guardroom’) in Damaturu,Yobe State.

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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +72.56% 2013

Africa: Ibrahim Index highlights security fears


Wildlife Photographer of the Year 2013 and Animal Portraits Winner:
Essence of Elephants by Greg du Toit (South Africa)


Ever since he first picked up a camera Du Toit has photographed
African elephants. 'For many years I’ve wanted to create an image that
captures their special energy and the state of consciousness that I
sense when I’m with them. This image comes closest to doing that.' The
picture was taken at a waterhole in Botswana’s Northern Tuli Game
Reserve, from a hide – in this case a sunken freight container – that
provided a ground-level view. Du Toit used a slow shutter speed to
create the atmosphere he was after and try 'to depict these gentle
giants in an almost ghostly way'.

Daniele Tamagni, Eric Mazzakampa At Rapha Bounzeki’s Party,
2007/8. Lambda C- print. Signed sticker on verso. 92 x 66cm. Edition 2
of 10. Framed and glazed


Twins Seven-Seven. Three Wanderers in the City, 1967. Signed
‘Twins 77 - Oshogbo 1967’ (on face of work).


Ben Enwonwu, Africa Dances, 1959. Watercolour and gouache on card.
Signed Ben Enwonwu (lower left), dated 1959


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Safaricom share price data and Earnings here +81.188% 2013
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           9.15
Total Shares Issued:          40000000000.00
Market Capitalization:        366,000,000,000
EPS:             0.44
PE:                 20.795

FY 2013 Earnings through 31st March 2013 versus FY through March 2012
FY Revenue 124.287856b versus 106.995529b +16.2%
FY Gross Profit 67.743420b versus 52.856310b +28.2%
FY Operating Expenses [40.643226b] versus [32.704953b] +24.3%
FY PBT 25.450565b versus 17.369400b +46.5%
FY PAT 17.539810b versus 12.627607b +38.9%
FY EPS 0.44 versus 0.32 +37.5%
FY Dividend 0.31 cents a share +40.9%
Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Period
Customer Numbers have increased +1.8% to 19.42m [1.4m Customers were
disconnected in this Period]
Mobile Data Customers who were active in the last 30 days increased by
56.7% to 7.13m as at March 2013
M-Pesa Registered Customers grew by 14.8% to 17.11m as at end March 2013
Voice Revenue +12.6% to 77.66b
SMS Revenue +30.4% to 10.13b
Data Revenue increased by +27.8% to 8.42b
M-Pesa Revenue +29.5% to 21.84b
M-Pesa/SMS/Data Revenue increased to 32.5% of Total Revenues from 29.2%
FY 2013 Voice Revenue now 65.8% versus 68.8% previously of Total Revenue
FY 2013 M-Pesa Revenue now 18.5% versus 16.8% previously of Total Revenue
FY 2013 SMS Revenue now 8.6% versus 7.8%
FY 2013 Data Revenue now 7.1% versus 6.6%
1.2m Customers using M-Shwari
Giving Free Cash Flow Guidance for FY 2014 of between 15.5-17.5b Kenya Shilling

Safaricom Limited @SafaricomLtd #SafaricomSustainability KShs 444bn
was deposited into M-PESA via agents, with KShs 522bn transacted among
customers between Oct'12-March'13


TPS @SerenaHotels acquires Sweetwaters Tented Camp from Ol Pejeta

“The Competition Authority authorises the proposed acquisition of the
assets of Sweetwaters Tented Camp from Ol Pejeta Ranching Limited by
TPS (OP),” read the notice singed by Wang’ombe Kariuki, the director
general of the Competition Authority.

Tuesday, Mahmud Janmohamed, the managing director of the hotel chain,
said that TPS had inked a 30-year lease agreement with the conservancy
with the option of a further extension.

“We were managing the property, and now we have leased it long-term,”
said Mr Janmohamed, adding that Serena has invested Sh212 .5 million
($2.5 million) in upgrading the property.

TPS @Serenahotels share price data here

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           44.75
Total Shares Issued:          182174108.00
Market Capitalization:        8,152,291,333
EPS:             3.6
PE:                 12.431

H1 Earnings through June 2013 versus June 2012
H1 Sales 2.921193b versus 2.209633b +32.202%
Net Interest Cost [81.482m] versus [63.900m]
H1 PBT 205.079m versus 170.098m +20.565%
H1 PAT 141.077m versus 120.498m +17.078%
EPS 0.69 versus 0.90 -23.333%

read more

@KCBGroup targets the unbanked with M-Benki platform
Kenyan Economy

The platform will target the large unbanked population, by attracting
them to paperless banking which has also been integrated with M-Pesa.

M-Pesa users can access an existing KCB account by using pay bill
number 522522, while a new account can be set up by dialling *522#,
entering a national ID number and full names.

The bank’s subsidiaries located in Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi
and South Sudan will also get to enjoy the new bank account service.

Customer must be at least an 18-years-old registered and an active
mobile subscriber.

Money withdrawals, deposits and request for loans will be available
through the gadget.

“You will receive SMS from M-Pesa confirming your money has been sent
to KCB,” said Joshua Oigara, chief executive officer (CEO) of KCB
Group. “Details are verified , and customer gets two SMSs: Mobi+
account number and Mobi log details. You can start using the account

@KCBGroup share Price data +58.82% 2013


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           47.25
Total Shares Issued:          2950170000.00
Market Capitalization:        139,395,532,500
EPS:             4.11
PE:                 11.496

H1 2013 Earnings through June 2013 versus June 2012
Total Assets 370.911015b versus 349.275693b
H1 Total Operating Income 23.996726b versus 21.900088b
Total and Other Operating Expenses 13.900304b versus 13.396280b
H1 PBT 10.096422b versus 8.503808b +18.728%
H1 PAT 7.192232b versus 6.086014b +18.176%
H1 EPS 2.41 versus 2.05 +17.5609%

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 85.131

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +37.9928% 2013

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +19.3805% 2013

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

Africa: An advertising voyage of discovery By: Vanita 'Bezi Phiri

That's why I really took this job: Because I think what we really need
in Africa is not new agencies but creative investment and I wouldn't
mind being part of the movement. I feel that Kenya, and Africa in
general - inclusive of South Africa - has room for growth, room to
sell "people's brands" via approaches that are based on real, fresh
and, above all, localised insight and thought platforms; brands that
resonate with the people; brands that speak to vibrant urbanites while
bearing in mind the aliveness of various tribal cultures; brands that
speak to a predominantly black market while encompassing the strong
Arab presence that is Kenya; in short, brands that are willing to
learn that there is a specialised art to selling on the black African

read more

N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All share eased 0.03 points to close at 130.87. The
Nairobi All Share is +37.961% Year to Date and has corrected 2.043%
since reaching an All Time High on the 8th of October.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index eased 10.61 points to close at 4923.47. The
NSE20 is +19.11% in 2013 and 107.44 points below its 2013 and Multi
Year High reached on April 2nd.
Equity Turnover was 473.040m.
There were 23 Winners and 21 Losers at the Exchange today and this is
signalling that the market is in better balance now and that the
2.043% correction since the 8th of October might be near completion.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange on the day it issued its 2nd Sustainability Report
#Safaricomsustainability . Safaricom closed unchanged at 9.15 and
traded 15.945m shares worth 146.47m. Bob Collymore the CEO said today;

'' We judge our success not by profit but by Difference made''

Safaricom has rallied +81.188% Year to Date and will challenge its All
Time High of 9.40, a level it sits 2.65% below and which was reached
earlier this month, ahead of the H1 2013 Earnings Release on November
5th. I expect H1 Earnings to surpass consensus expectations and
trigger a move to 10.00.

TPS Serena rallied +6.15% to close at 47.50 and traded light volume of
600 shares. TPS Serena MD Mahmud Janmohamed, the managing director has
announced that said TPS had inked a 30-year lease agreement  re
Sweetwaters Tented Camp and with the Ol Pejeta Conservancy. TPS Serena
trades on a Trailing PE of 13.194 and reported a +17.078% Acceleration
in H1 2013 Profit after Tax. The Price is oversold at these levels and
hence the very thin volumes.

Kenya Airways firmed 0.48% to close at 10.50 and traded 2.499m shares
worth 26.236m. Kenya Airways' Dr. Naikuni steered Earnings
Expectations towards a FY Profit at the time of the AGM and triggered
a +12.229% in the Price and since the 27th of September. Kenya Airways
crossed 10.00 on the 2nd of October on a closing Basis for the first
time since June and that marked an important Chart break-Out. I expect
a sharp Rebound and have a near term Price Objective of 12.00.

LongHorn Kenya improved +3.1% to close at 14.95 and traded 16,200 shares.

Uchumi eased 1.16% to close at 21.25 and traded 1.289m shares.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 1.06% to close at 47.75 and was locked at
48.00 +1.59% for most of the session. Kenya Commercial Bank launched
its M-Benki platform yesterday. The Platform interfaces with
Safaricom's M-Pesa. Kenya Commercial Bank is +60.504% in 2013. Kenya
Commercial Bank traded 622,800 shares and There was unserviced Buy
Side for 284% more shares than were traded during the session at the
Finish line signalling material price support at these Levels.

BRITAM rallied +2.02% to close at 10.10 and on heavy volume of 2.759m
shares. BRITAM trades on a Trailing PE of 7.214 and accelerated H1 PBT
2013 +25.076%.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Bamburi Cement traded 2nd at the Exchange and eased 0.47% to close at
210.00 and traded 296,700 shares worth 62.588m. Bamburi Cement trades
on a Trailing PE of 17.2555 and reported a -10.241% Decline in H1 2013
Profit after Tax.
Athi River Cement ticked +1.995% higher to close at 76.50 and traded
8,900 shares. Athi River is +70.75% in 2013, trades on a Trailing PE
of 30.47, reported a +28% H1 2013 Profit after Tax Acceleration. The
CEO Pradeep Paunrana gave FY Earnings Guidance of +35% to Reuters
earlier this month.
East African Portland Cement firmed 0.8% to close at 63.00 on light
trading of 3,100 shares.

EABL eased 0.32% to close at 314.00 and traded 110,800 shares worth
34.906m. EABL rallied +20.4225% 1st September through 9th October and
has corrected 8.187% since the 9th of October. The Price correction
looks complete or very close to completion. EABL is +18.49% in 2013.

Eveready was the biggest gainer at the Securities Exchange and rallied
+7.27% to close at 2.95 on material volume of 620,600 shares. Eveready
has 210,000,000 shares in issue.

Mumias Sugar eased 4% to close at 3.60 and traded 796,700 shares.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2013

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