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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 25th of October 2013
 
Morning
Africa

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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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Tomorrow Saturday 26th October #Mindspeak at @InterConNairobi
Africa


#Mindspeak Panel Discussion to cover The Extractive Industries #Oil #Gas Mining

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Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights
Africa


The Voluntary Principles are the only human rights guidelines designed
specifically for extractive sector companies. Participants in the
Voluntary Principles Initiative — including governments, companies,
and NGOs — agree to proactively implement or assist in the
implementation of the Voluntary Principles.

The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative #EITI
http://eiti.org/eiti

The EITI maintains the EITI Standard. Countries implement the EITI
Standard to ensure full disclosure of taxes and other payments made by
producing oil, gas and mining companies. These payments are disclosed
in an annual EITI Report (to see all EITI Reports, go to
datat.eiti.org). This report allows citizens to see for themselves how
much their government is receiving from their country’s natural
resources.

Transparency can only lead to accountability if there is understanding
of what the figures mean and public debate about how the country’s
resource wealth should be managed. Therefore, the EITI Standard
requires that EITI Reports are comprehensible, actively promoted and
contribute to public debate.

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#Mindspeak 2013 RICH TV
Africa


features @dreynders @IMFNews @johngithongo @MaggieIreri
@patriciaithau1 @HabilOlaka

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

“You must give birth to your images. They are the future waiting to be
born. Fear not the strangeness you feel. The future must enter you
long before it happens. Just wait for the birth, for the the hour of
the new clarity.”
― Rainer Maria Rilke

“A billion stars go spinning through the night, / glittering above
your head, / But in you is the presence that will be / when all the
stars are dead.”
― Rainer Maria Rilke

read more



Madagascar votes in first presidential election since 2009 coup Reuters
Law & Politics


The people of Madagascar began voting on Friday in a presidential
election they hope will end a five-year crisis and rebuild investor
confidence to mend an economy crippled since President Andry Rajoelina
seized power in a 2009 coup.

It was the first vote on the huge nickel- and vanilla-producing island
off Africa since the upheaval triggered by protests and mutinous
soldiers that drew sanctions against Madagascar and prompted donors to
freeze crucial budget support.

Rajoelina, a former disc jockey, and the wife of the man he ousted,
Marc Ravalomanana, were barred by an electoral court from competing.
With no clear favorite among the 33 candidates, the election is not
expected to produce an outright winner, meaning a likely runoff in
December.

Initial results are likely to come in slowly on the island, which is a
bit smaller than Texas. The electoral commission has until November 8
to announce a provisional count.

Madagascar's cash-strapped economy needs budgetary support back from
foreign donors, its finance minister told Reuters.

Rajoelina, 39, rose to power after galvanizing popular anger at
Ravalomanana's perceived abuses of power. He spearheaded violent
street protests in early 2009 and toppled the self-made millionaire
after dissident soldiers swung behind him.

Diplomats said they were keeping a watchful eye on the military, still
headed by a general who backed Ravalomanana's ouster and whose
commanders are seen as loyal to Rajoelina.

"The Malagasy want a president ... who is not hungry for power. The
people deserve a better future," Rajoelina said late on Thursday in a
pre-recorded address to the country.

Ravalomanana, who fled to South Africa and remains there, has openly
backed Jean Louis Robinson, a former minister during his presidency
and regarded as a serious contender.

Publicly, Rajoelina has not endorsed a candidate. But two aspirants,
Hery Rajaonarimampianina, a former finance minister, and Edgard
Razafindravahy, are both widely seen as close political associates of
the outgoing president.

One Western diplomat said flaws in the voting process were inevitable
but that the alternative was another delay. Rajoelina first promised
an election in late 2010.

"Everybody knows the vote cannot be perfect but everybody is playing
the game," said Lydie Boka of French risk group StrategiCo. "Given the
circumstances, maybe that is the best they can do."

Madagascar
http://lagodaxnian.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/trees-in-madagascar.jpg

The Trap - 2 - The Lonely Robot
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbRApO3k_Jo

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Simply put, only the U.S. -- which still has about 20,000 troops stationed in the Middle East -- can guarantee Saudi Arabia’s security against major threats.
Law & Politics


As the region becomes more unstable, this dependence is rising.

Conclusions

The Saudis are demanding increased Freedom of Manoeuvre.

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3816 Euro  touched 1.3832 strongest since November 2011
Dollar Index 79.07
Japan Yen 97.04 Dollar has declined 0.7% this week. the Bank of
Japan’s favored measure of inflation, advanced to 0.8 percent in
August, the fastest pace since November 2008
Swiss Franc 0.8904
Pound 1.6222
Aussie 0.9603
India Rupee 61.60
South Korea Won 1061.48
Brazil Real 2.2032
Egypt Pound 6.8914
South Africa Rand 9.7747

The dollar has lost 1.4 percent in the past month, making it the worst
performer after the Canadian dollar’s 2.4 percent drop among 10
developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted
Indexes. The euro strengthened 1 percent, while the yen added 0.3
percent.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3816 [headed to 1.4000+]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.07 [headed to at least 78.60]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Sterling 3 Month Chart INO 1.6224 [Target is 1.6850]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

U.K. GDP Growth Seen Accelerating to Strongest in Three Years
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/u-k-gdp-growth-seen-accelerating-to-strongest-in-three-years.html

U.K. economic growth probably accelerated to its fastest pace in more
than three years in the third quarter as the recovery continued across
all main industries.

Gross domestic product rose 0.8 percent from the second quarter, up
from 0.7 percent in the previous period and the biggest increase since
the second quarter of 2010, according to the median forecast of 40
economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The Office for National
Statistics will publish the data at 9:30 a.m. in London today.

“The message to households, to businesses, is that the recovery has
obviously begun, it is strengthening, but we are not going to withdraw
monetary stimulus until it’s really gained that traction,” Carney told
reporters in London late yesterday.
Conclusions

12-AUG-2013 ::The Recovery in the West is not a Mirage It Is Real

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1208.pdf

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1341.89 [Easy Money through Year End supports
a higher price]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

 A second weekly increase would be the best run since the week ended
Aug. 23. Prices climbed to $1,352.06 yesterday, the highest since
Sept. 30.

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 97.22
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.Z13.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

The Direction of the Price pivots on President @BarackObama and
@HassanRouhani and whether They can cut through the Noise

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/09/23/hassan-rouhani-iran-s-mysterious-new-president.html

A very strong constituency is invested in the Status Quo.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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"If there is that restlessness, frustration, Dhlakama is a touchstone for that," said Hoile. He saw the rebel leader's pilgrimage back to the bush as a "wake up call for the guys in Maputo"
Africa


Interview With General David M. Rodriguez, Commander US AFRICOM @USAfricaCommand
http://allafrica.com/stories/201310241264.html?viewall=1

Our strategy is to develop partner-security capacities, strengthen
relationships, and enhance regional cooperation. We conduct all of our
military activities in close coordination with our African partners
and our partners in the U.S. Government. Every team has a leader. And
in the countries where we operate, that leader is the U.S. ambassador.

MS. JENSEN: Great. Well, they’re already pouring in. So our first
question comes from Golden Matonga from Daily Times, Malawi: “We would
like to find out if the recent events such as the Westgate attack in
Kenya have necessitated the change in U.S. strategy across the
continent?” And I’ll send that over to you Assistant Secretary.

We think that many of the successes that AMISOM has had over the last
several years have actually led to this response by al-Shabaab. And as
the ambassador has said, this really validates our strategy, and we’re
going to continue to work with our partners to strengthen their
capabilities to stop al-Shabaab from having the incredibly negative
impact on both the people of Somalia as well as the region.

Trade with Africa via The Economist
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21588378-chinese-businessmen-africa-get-attention-indians-are-not-far

Mahatma Gandhi, who observed in the early 20th century, “The commerce
between India and Africa will be of ideas and services, not of
manufactured goods against raw materials after the fashion of Western
exploiters.”

read more


Mobutu Sese Seko's body to return to Congo, says Kabila BBC
Africa


The Democratic Republic of Congo's government will repatriate the body
of ex-ruler Mobutu Sese Seko in agreement with his family, President
Joseph Kabila has said.

Mr Mobutu is buried in Morocco, where he died in 1997 after being
overthrown in a rebellion by Mr Kabila's father.

Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu wa Za Banga (/məˈbuːtuː ˈsɛseɪ
ˈsɛkoʊ/; born Joseph-Desiré Mobutu; 14 October 1930 – 7 September
1997) was the President of Republic of the Congo (Léopoldville)

http://www.rts.rs/upload/storyBoxImageData/2011/10/27/8627572/Mobutu-Sese-Seko-527.jpg

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Mobutu had the remains of assassinated Rwandan president Juvénal Habyarimana stored in a mausoleum in Gbadolite.
Africa


On 12 May 1997, as Kabila's rebels were advancing on Gbadolite, Mobutu
had the remains flown by cargo plane from his mausoleum to Kinshasa
where they waited on the tarmac of N'djili Airport for three days. On
16 May, the day before Mobutu fled Zaire, Habyarimana's remains were
burned under the supervision of an Indian Hindu leader.[44]

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Juvénal Habyarimana
Africa


President Habyarimana's Wife also known as Madame Agathe
http://www.slateafrique.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/article/2011-05-26_1422/agathe.jpg

MADAME AGATHE   The Mutsinzi Report  POSTED BY  @PGourevitch New Yorker
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2010/01/the-mutsinzi-report-on-the-rwandan-genocide.html

Madame Agathe Habyarimana—the assassinated President’s wife, who has
long been rumored to have been in on his killing. The report details
at length how openly the Habyarimana assassination plot was spoken
about in the months before his death; at one point, it notes that
President Mobutu Sese Seko of neighboring Zaire (now Congo) got wind
of the plans and told Madame Agathe to warn her husband, but she
didn’t. On a recent tour of Habyarimana’s palace grounds, I was shown
the plane’s wreckage, and also the solarium where the President’s
wife, popularly known as Madame Agathe, was said to have sat and
watched him fall to his death.

Notes from the Congo: Gbadolite
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_sgDXxnsAt8A/Sn4c7LvYU3I/AAAAAAAAEII/qkMWzQi18yc/s400/article_8082_4_0.jpg

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"One had to strike through a spectacular example, and create the conditions of regime discipline. When a chief takes a decision, he decides - period." - Mobutu.
Africa


"If I could do it all again, I'd be a farmer." - Mobutu to his
national security advisor, Honoré Ngbanda, "the Terminator"

Kabila made the remarks while at a public speech. "A government of
national unity will be soon put in place"

http://www.independent.co.ug/news/news/8359-drcs-kabila-to-create-unity-government

"I tell you that, as part of my opening, advocated since my
inauguration, a" Government of National cohesion policy "will be
implemented soon. It will include both representatives of the majority
than the opposition and civil society and will have priority missions
the peace and state authority throughout the country, the
consolidation of national cohesion, continued reconstruction support
to the decentralization process and the organization of elections, and
the improvement of social conditions of the people," Kabila said.

However Kabila who was presenting the findings of three weeks of
national dialogue has ruled out a any amnesty for the leaders of
rebels operating in Congo's mineral-rich east and called for the them
to lay down their arms.

"The Congolese government can not compromise on the terms of amnesty
and reintegration into the army of unrepentant offenders," noting that
it remained "open to dialogue" to resolve the conflict triggered in
eastern DRC since May 2012.-

The government denies Algeria is run through backroom deals among a
party-military elite known by the French term "Le Pouvoir" or the
power

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/24/us-algeria-politics-idUSBRE99N0YH20131024

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +18.22% 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8912
Africa


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +15.61% 2013 [The Last Time this Index closed
above 6,000 was January 24th 2011]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

6,171.21

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +38.18% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +77.23% 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Danone, (BN) the world’s biggest yogurt maker, is joining Dubai-based
private equity firm Abraaj Group in acquiring Ghana’s Fan Milk
International

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/danone-joins-dubai-based-abraaj-in-ghana-fan-milk-buyout-1-.html

Abraaj, which previously said it would buy all the dairy producer,
will now take a 51 percent and Danone the remainder, according to a
statement today from the two companies. Under the agreement,
Paris-based Danone will acquire a controlling share in the company in
coming years.

Fan Milk is a manufacturer and distributor of frozen dairy products
across West Africa and had sales last year of about 120 million euros
($166 million.)

Danone and Abraaj said they expect to complete the deal by the end of
the year. It is the largest private equity transaction in sub-Saharan
Africa in the fast-moving consumer goods industry, according to
Abraaj.

Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO) opposition group raised
concerns about a renewed insurgency when its spokesman, Fernando
Mazanga, released a statement on 21 October saying "peace is over"

http://www.janes.com/article/28857/renamo-threatens-renewed-insurgency-in-mozambique

Bad loans soared 84 percent to 167 billion kwanzas (around $1.7
billion) in 2012 from 89 billion kwanzas (around $919 million) in
2010, the study showed.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/10/23/angola-banks-idINL5N0ID2XC20131023

Jumia tries to vault Africa from street market to e-market

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/24/us-nigeria-jumia-idUSBRE99N0WJ20131024

The online retailer Jumia, a would-be African Amazon, is betting that
it can propel the continent's rising middle class consumers out of the
street markets and straight onto its websites, missing out the
department stores and shopping malls in between.

The key, it says, is the smartphone, already helping much of
Africa'seconomy brush aside the continent's lack of reliable transport
or fixed phone and Internet connections.

"Most of the people have phones, but there are only three malls for 20
million inhabitants," Jumia's French co-founder, Jeremy Hodara, told
Reuters from in a telephone interview from the city.

"It is a unique time. People are hungry for consumption. It is the
right time to leapfrog over 'offline'."

For now, e-commerce is still in its infancy in most of Africa.

Even in South Africa, the continent's most technologically advanced
country, the research firm World Wide Worx estimates e-commerce sales
were just 4 billion rand ($409 million) last year, or about $80 per
internet user.

Even Spain, which has a similar population size but is an e-commerce
laggard by European standards, had online sales of 6.7 billion euros
($9.25 billion) last year - albeit with a per capita GDP almost four
times that of South Africa.

Amazon, the world's biggest Internet retailer, has no local operations
in Africa and only ships to South Africa, although delivery charges
make it a pricey option.

But the phenomenon seems set to take off. One market research firm
suggests that Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, will have
almost tripled its online purchases in just three years to more than
$1 billion by 2014.

It operates in Nigeria, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Egypt and Kenya,
offering up to 100,000 different items from sale from its local
warehouses, and plans to expand to other African countries before the
year is out, although it is not yet saying where.

Hodara, a 31-year-old French business graduate who cut his teeth at
consultants McKinsey, said the fact that the World Retail Congress
picked Jumia as "Best new retail launch" this month, rather than best
in e-commerce, showed its potential.

"We are in a game to become the biggest retailer of Africa, not the
biggest e-commerce player," he said. "If you look at the U.S.,
e-commerce is 15 percent of retail. We think that in Africa ...
e-commerce is going to be 40, 50, 60 percent."

"People are as demanding as in London or the U.S. If you say you will
deliver tomorrow at 5, and it's 5.15, they call you like crazy. You
cannot do less because it's Africa. It has to be as good as in New
York," Hodara said.

"If doesn't work perfectly, they are afraid it is a scam."

The Miss Jacaranda drag queen contest in Zimbabwe. Photograph:
Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi/AP

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/24/zimbabwe-pride-week-drag-queen-contest-miss-jacaranda

In a long and shimmering purple dress, 17-year-old Ezmerald Kim
Kardashian – not his real name – was crowned Miss Jacaranda at a drag
queen pageant ahead of First Princess, Second Princess and Miss
Personality. But it was the beauty contest's location that may shock
many: Zimbabwe. Not that President Robert Mugabe could be seen handing
out glittering garlands.

read more


At least six countries, including Zambia, Japan, Italy, France, Germany and Austria have been left in a diplomatic limbo in Kenya after the Foreign Affairs ministry suspended the accreditation of their envoys indefinitely, citing Mr Kenyatta’s busy diar
Kenyan Economy


The list of diplomats who are awaiting accreditation to assume office
includes Tatsushi Terada of Japan and Rémi Maréchaux of France.

The gravity of the diplomatic impasse is underlined by the fact that
three of the countries — Japan, France and Germany — are some of
Kenya’s leading creditors, accounting for almost a fifth or 18.5 per
cent of total external sources of financing.

Japan is ranked Nairobi’s top source of funding in the bilateral
category, having loaned East Africa’s largest economy a total of
Sh85.5 billion ($1.009 billion) by June this year.

France had advanced Kenya a total of Sh46.7 billion ($551.1 million)
by the end June. Most of the money has gone into revamping the
electricity grid and building roads.

Germany, which had offered Kenya long-term credit to the tune of
Sh24.6 billion ($291.1 million) by June, follows closely behind.

Conclusions

I think This is a seriously sub-optimal Approach and The Government
should embrace Sun Tzu.

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Week-end events in Addis Ababa indicate higher levels of friction
between Kenya and the international community. 14-OCT-2013

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/037NSX1410.pdf

It’s not possible to model exactly how this all plays out. I err on
the side that Westgate introduced an important new dynamic into the
entire equation. That dynamic being counter-terrorism. It propelled
the president to the very front-line of the global war on terror. And
therefore, notwithstanding some very fruity language in Addis Ababa,
once everyone stops throwing their toys out
of the pram, there is a deal that can be struck that keeps the
president on the front-line and in situ.

Republic of Kenya is expected to appoint Barclays and Standard Bank as
co-arrangers alongside JP Morgan for a debut Eurobond worth up to
US$2bn, according to three market sources.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/10/23/kenya-eurobond-idINL5N0ID3NV20131023

The sovereign, rated B1/B+/B+, picked the US bank to lead the issue,
but left the choice of the co-managers to the investment bank's
discretion,

Australia warns of attacks against foreigners on Kenyan coast

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/24/us-kenya-security-australia-idUSBRE99N0FQ20131024

Militants may be planning attacks on nightclubs and other spots
popular with foreign tourists visiting the Kenyan city of Mombasa, the
Australian government said in a travel alert on Thursday.

A spokesman for Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta said visitors to the
coastal city were safe, and the government viewed such warnings as
"unnecessary and uncalled for".

"Information of late-October 2013 indicates extremists may be planning
attacks on nightclubs and other places frequented by foreigners along
Malindi Road in Mombasa," said an alert on Smart Traveller, the
Australian government's travel advice website. It did not say which
group or groups might be involved.

Presidential spokesman Manoah Esipisu said Kenyan security forces had
always acted on information about threats against foreigners and had
prevented attacks in the past. "Specifically in Mombasa's case we've
improved and beefed up security there, so we are very confident that
all tourists in Mombasa are safe."

TPS @SerenaHotels #Serena Indian Ocean #Mombasa

http://www.twitpic.com/23hoxj

The Palm Trees and The Beach Diani Kenya

http://www.twitpic.com/aobu9b

I & M Holdings Ltd traded 14.602m shares 4.014% of its shares
yesterday 11 Month Results share price data here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NjM%3D

Par Value:
Closing Price:           103.00
Total Shares Issued:          363722034.00
Market Capitalization:        37,463,369,502
EPS:             1.69
PE:                 60.947

I&M reports 11 Month Earnings through June 2013 here

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/I_M%20Holdings%20Ltd%20-%20unaudited%20interim%20financial%20results.pdf

11 Months through 30th June 2013 versus 12 months through June 2012

Total Operating Income 758.829m versus 57.465m +1,320%
Admin and Operating Expenses [16.713m] versus [5.508m]
11 Months PBT 742.116m versus 51.957m
11 Months PAT 741.646m versus 48.420m +1,531%
EPS 1.89 versus 1.69 +11.834%

Conclusions

On a Trailing PE of 60.355, Investors are taking a lot of the Growth
Story on Trust.

read more


She lived in a three-bedroomed apartment in the OakPark Apartment block for seven months in 2011
Kenyan Economy


In Nairobi, Lewthwaite lived near Junction Mall, another Nairobi
shopping center, according to a caretaker at the apartment complex.
She lived in a three-bedroomed apartment in the OakPark Apartment
block for seven months in 2011 using the fake identification of
Natalie Faye Webb, the building superintendent, Alfred Osiole, told
The Associated Press on Wednesday. OakPark Apartments are about 200
meters (yards) from the Junction Mall.

Lewthwaite’s boyfriend, or partner, claimed to have worked with
Interpol when the couple and four kids moved in, said Osiole.

“She was a person who doesn’t say much. She looked unkempt but she
kept to herself,” Osiole said as he gave AP journalists a tour of the
complex. “She moved into the apartment on February 2011, with her
boyfriend, and they told me that they were tired of staying in a hotel
where they were paying ($105) a day.”

In the first days during her stay she spent up to three hours shopping
with her children at the Junction Mall, he said.

Later she sent him to the mall to shop for her and she would tip him,
he said. “But then she started complaining that the $2 tip was costly
and so I pretended to be busy whenever she would want to send me,”
said Osiole.

Lewthwaite’s boyfriend traveled a lot during their stay in the
apartment, said Osiole. “Once when he was around he asked me to escort
him to the Junction Mall for a meeting with his lawyers. As we waited
in the parking he asked me about the composition of the shoppers at
the mall. Among the questions the man asked was whether many Muslims
shopped at the mall,” Osiole said.

One day in October 2011, Lewthwaite and her partner called movers and
started loading their household goods, including two beds, a dining
table and clothes, said Osiole.

“I closed the gate to stop them from leaving because they needed a
letter from the landlord permitting them to move out,” he said. He
said Lewthwaite was crying claiming that they have to move out in
hurry because her mother had died and they needed to travel back home
to Yemen.

Lewthwaite was angered when he would not let the family move out and
threatened to attack Osiole, he said. “I can break this man into small
pieces,” he recalled her saying.

The landlord then allowed them to leave and forfeit their cash
deposit, Osiole said.

A week later anti-terrorism police arrived with pictures of the woman
who had identified herself as Natalie Faye Webb, Osiole said. Her real
name was Lewthwaite police told him, said Osiole.

read more


That’s the backgrounder. Now lets jump to Westgate. As I scanned the Al-Shabaab tweets I recalled this one that @GGoodwin retweeted 30-SEP-2013
Kenyan Economy


“Westgate: 14hr standoff relayed in 1400 rounds of bullets & 140
charac- ters of vengeance & still ongoing. Gd morning Kenya!”

Another read ‘’Here are 2 of the Mujahideen inside #Westgate mall,
unruffled and strolling around the mall in such sangfroid manner.’’

I kept thinking to myself ‘sangfroid’ is such an unusual word. It
means coolness of mind; calmness; composure a kind of cold bloodedness
under pressure. And therefore, I am putting Samantha Lewthwaite at the
scene and I think she live-tweeted from inside Westgate for an as yet
undetermined period.

Reflections on #Westgate, Al-Shabaab 2.0 #Samanthalewthwaite The White Widow

http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php?dt=MjAxMy0wOS0zMA%3D%3D#B32258

I kept thinking to myself that Sangfroid is a Quality highly prized in
the Military. Thats a word the Daughter of a Military Man might know.
Nishet tells me, I think this is a Woman. And I said Thats exactly it.
Another Tweet says ''I am Titanium.'' referencing a David Guetta Song,
whose lyrics read and are practically a Taunt.

David Guetta - Titanium ft. Sia
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRfuAukYTKg

The Lyrics
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/davidguetta/titanium.html

[Sia:]
You shouted out
But I can't hear a word you say
I'm talking loud not saying much
I'm criticized but all your bullets ricochet
You shoot me down, but I get up

[Chorus:]

I'm bulletproof, nothing to lose
Fire away, fire away
Ricochet, you take your aim
Fire away, fire away
You shoot me down but I won't fall
I am titanium
You shoot me down but I won't fall
I am titanium

[Sia:]
Cut me down
But it's you who'll have further to fall
Ghost town and haunted love
Raise your voice, sticks and stones may break my bones
I'm talking loud not saying much

I think She was in there, she live tweeted from inside and then she
escaped through a Tunnel.

Samantha Lewthwaite, pictured in a selfie from a personal computer
found by police at the house she was renting in Mombasa

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436793/Secret-husband-White-Widow-holds-key-terror-network-Samantha-Lewthwaite-wed-ex-naval-officer-turned-home-bomb-factory--42-calls-mystery-aunt-England.html

the 'White Widow' slipped out of the Kenyan shopping mall after
smearing blood over her face, security sources in the country have
exclusively told the Sunday Independent

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/white-widow-smeared-her-face-in-blood-to-flee-29618580.html

They also revealed how Samantha Lewthwaite, the Co Down-born widow of
London suicide bomber Germaine Lindsay, rented a unit at the Westgate
Shopping mall months ago, in preparation for last week's terror
killing spree.

She hung up newspapers around the shop unit to conceal what was going
on inside, pretending to be stocking up on goods.

Staff have told police in Nairobi they helped a woman fitting the
description of Samantha Lewthwaite lift boxes into the shop unit.

And witness accounts reveal a woman closely resembling the 29-year-old
mother of three was seen being led away among panicked survivors, her
face and upper clothes splashed with blood

#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica Bureau #Nairobi on the 19th Floor

http://www.twitpic.com/deneco

Africa Reflections on the State of the Now

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2110.pdf

Now an electorate can have heightened expectations but simply no
leverage with which to pressure its government. Today the pressure
points are growing exponentially. For three whole days during the
Westgate crisis, the hashtag #StepasideOlelenku was the top trending
hashtag in this region. I feel sorry for the cabinet secretary because
I suspect some undiluted old guard elements probably whispered ‘’Say
This’’ and ‘’Say That’’ with no regard or even comprehension of the
new normal and little regard for the fact that they were shredding the
cabinet secretary’s bona fides. The electorate is breaking out of its
box. PWC in its Africa Business Agenda Report 2013 noted;

‘’A significantly higher percentage of CEOs in Africa recognise the
power of social media users compared to their global counterparts.’’

Authorities were incensed over reporting that exposed command
confusion during the Westgate mall operations, and which  revealed at
least one police officer was shot and killed by the Kenyan army and
CCTV footage appeared to show soldiers looting the shopping mall.

On Wednesday, David Kimaiyo, Kenya's inspector general of police,
launched a tirade at the Kenyan press, threatening to arrest and
prosecute two journalists for their coverage of the Westgate Mall
rescue operation.

Around 1 p.m., Kimaiyo held a press conference accusing the reporters
of "provoking propaganda" and inciting Kenyans against authorities in
their coverage of the Westgate Mallsecurity operations, according to
news reports. The inspector general singled out two investigative
reporters, John-Allan Namu and Mohamed Ali, for their story on
Westgate aired by KTN Television called "The Inside Story" or "Jechu
Pivo" last Friday, Namu told CPJ.

"If you are one of the people in KTN carrying out such offences, we
cannot fail to come for you, we will deal with you firmly," Kimaiyo
said at the press conference. Namu was perplexed at the warnings since
all media houses covered the Westgate operations. "They seem to think
we maligned the military, spinning a narrative against the KDF [Kenya
Defense Force], but I cannot see where these accusations are rooted in
reality," Namu said.

Authorities were incensed over reporting that exposed command
confusion during the Westgate mall operations, and which  revealed at
least one police officer was shot and killed by the Kenyan army and
CCTV footage appeared to show soldiers looting the shopping mall.

The chief of Kenya's defense forces, Gen. Julius Karanji, denied the
claims, according to news reports, saying the soldiers had merely
taken drinking water "to quench their thirst" and opened safes in a
"sanitization exercise." Kenyans on social media also were quick to
identify failures in the operation, including conflicting government
reports in the wake of the Westgate mall attack, a four-day siege that
left at least 67 people dead. Official claims of five attackers killed
without any evidence of the bodies, for instance, were highlighted in
the press and mocked via Twitter. In reaction, Joseph Ole Lenku, the
cabinet secretary for the interior, charged bloggers were "not
patriotic enough" during an interview on Citizen TV in late September.
The police chief expressed similar sentiments to the press on
Wednesday, telling reporters that "we must be loyal to the system and
the government of the day," according tonews reports.

After considerable protest by the media, the police rescinded the
threat of arrest late Thursday, according to news reports.

Conclusions


The First Point to note;

“There’s a huge loss of control over narrative and an inability to
command a message from on high in the way that was possible as
recently as six or seven years ago.''

Furthermore, Kenya is in fact a Digital Laboratory.

The New Communications Ecosystem has meant that The Government has
severally been defending a narrative which absolutely no one believes.

It is an untenable position.

Aly-Khan Satchu

http://www.rich.co.ke

Details of the buy-out deal published in a shareholders’ circular show
Mr Thakrar’s stake in Scangroup will diminish to 13.2 per cent, while
raising the London Stock Exchange listed WPP Cavendish’ stake to 50.1
per cent, effectively giving it majority control of the media services
company.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Scangroup-buyout-deal-diminishes-founder-clout/-/539552/2046178/-/qoh3w3/-/index.html

12-AUG-2013 ::  Public announcement – Acquisition by Cavendish Square
Holding B.V of 94,075,974 ordinary shares of ScanGroup Ltd.

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/ScanGroup%20Ltd%20-%20Acquisition%20by_Cavendish%20Square%20Holdings%20B.V..pdf

Scangroup share price data here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTE%3D

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           56.50
Total Shares Issued:          284789128.00
Market Capitalization:        16,090,585,732
EPS:             2.21
PE:                 25.566

The largest marketing services company in East Africa.

H1 Earnings through June 2013 versus June 2012

H1 Revenue 1.805381b versus 1.881280b -4.00%
All Entities excluding Scanad Nigeria 160.813m versus 471.566m
Scanad Nigeria Limited [91.357m] versus 0.00
H1 PBT 101.168m versus 578.417m -82.509%
H1 PAT 43.624m versus 406.647m
H1 EPS 0.02 versus 1.13 -98.23%

Company commentary
Revenue from our Kenyan clients declined by 9% [referencing the
General elections]
Revenues from territories outside Kenya [excluding Nigeria] saw growth
of over 10% [Ghana +49% South Africa +10%]
Digital Revenues +141%
''confident of a marked improvement ...in second half of year''

Conclusions

A Soft H1 with Nigeria and a slow down in Kenya to blame. In many
respects the Key Relevant Information is that @WPP is seeking to move
into a majority.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 84.753

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +38.6885% 2013 [1.5269% below a Record
High set October 8th 2013]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +19.7435% 2013

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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