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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 28th of October 2013
 
Morning
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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The Audience #Mindspeak
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

“The past haunted from the ruins and graves”. M.G. Vassanji
http://realizeswww.writersfestival.org/blog/a-past-that-haunts-from-the-ruins-and-from-the-graves

FIRE-EATERS The search for the hottest chili
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2013/11/04/131104fa_fact_collins?currentPage=all

In mid-December of 2011, Brady Bennett went out drinking at Adobe
Gila’s at the Greene, a Mexican restaurant in Dayton, Ohio. After two
beers, the bartender offered him a free shot. Bennett chose Patrón
tequila with apple schnapps. Soon, he recalled, his throat began to
swell. He struggled to breathe, and his nose, mouth, and lungs “felt
as though they were on fire.” He called for an ambulance, moaning, and
was taken to the hospital. A year later, Bennett filed a lawsuit
against Adobe Gila’s, claiming that the bartender had spiked his drink
with extract of the bhut jolokia, or ghost chili. (Adobe Gila’s denies
the allegations.) “It wasn’t as if they gave him a little Tabasco,”
Jeff McQuiston, Bennett’s lawyer, told the Dayton Daily News. “This
stuff is lethal.” The bhut jolokia is a hundred and fifty times hotter
than a jalapeño. Gastromasochists have likened it to molten lava,
burning needles, and “the tip of my tongue being branded by a fine
point of heated steel.” Yet, at more than a million Scoville heat
units—the Scoville scale, developed by the pharmacist Wilbur Scoville
in 1912, measures the pungency of foods—the bhut jolokia is at least
462,400 SHU short of being the world’s hottest chili pepper.

New varieties of “superhots” provide near-death experiences in a bowl
of guacamole. Photograph by Grant Cornett

Lou Reed - Perfect Day YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYEC4TZsy-Y

“Greyhound Bus Station” (1986) Photo Booth
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/photobooth/#slide_ss_0=2

read more


Japan scrambled fighter jets for a third consecutive day on Sunday in response to flights by Chinese military aircraft over the Okinawa islands FT
Law & Politics


“We have been observing the situation with high interest,” a Japanese
foreign ministry spokesman said, describing the situation as
“abnormal.”

The aerial manoeuvres on Sunday came as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told
Japanese troops that Tokyo would not tolerate the use of force to
change the region’s status quo, seen by observers as an implicit
criticism of Beijing’s efforts to expand its maritime control in the
East China Sea and the South China Sea.

“In order to show our firm national intention that changing the status
quo by force will not be tolerated, we need to carry out various
activities such as surveillance and information gathering,” Mr Abe
told an annual troops review according to Reuters.

Newspaper reports that Japan is considering asserting its right to
shoot down unmanned drones that come into its airspace have added to
the tensions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/abe-warns-china-on-island-spat-as-japan-dispatches-fighter-jets.html

An unidentified drone was spotted outside Japanese airspace close to
the disputed islands on Sept. 9.

Chinese unmanned aircraft have not violated Japanese airspace and the
shooting down of a drone would prompt retaliation, Defense Ministry
Spokesman Geng Yansheng told reporters in Beijing on Oct. 26,
according to a statement on the ministry’s website.

“China absolutely does not permit other countries’ aircraft to violate
China’s airspace,” Geng said, according to the statement. “If the
Japanese side shoots down or takes other coercive measures, to me
that’s a serious provocation, it’s an act of war, and we will take
decisive measures to fight back.”

China’s state-owned newspapers the People’s Daily and the PLA Daily
carried front-page stories today lauding the country’s nuclear
submarine force. The fleet is China’s trump card and terrifies its
rivals, the People’s Daily said.

@AbeShinzo Shinzo Abe Japan's prime minister is President
@BarackObama's Point Man in the Pivot to Asia

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/abe-warns-china-on-island-spat-as-japan-dispatches-fighter-jets.html

This file photo shows a Japan's Air Self-Defense Force F-15 fighter
jet taking off from an air base Yahoo

http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/toUhtOSGmGZ3w8yjZXYoYQ--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTUxMjtweW9mZj0wO3E9NzU7dz03Njg-/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/afp.com/7b480d80ec43ae8f4ae7b63df3572e1ef5b89f25.jpg

read more


“The Bank of Japan, the Fed and the Bank of England are still effectively printing money, and the ECB is not,” said Derek Mumford
International Trade


The central bank will wait until its March 18-19 meeting to pare the
monthly pace of asset buying to $70 billion from $85 billion,
according to the median of responses in a Bloomberg News poll this
month.

The Department of the Treasury #Washington QE and the Money Printing Gig
http://www.twitpic.com/93pu4v

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3798
Dollar Index 79.23
Japan Yen 97.62  The yen closed at 97.42 per dollar on Oct. 25, weaker
than its 200-day moving average, after touching a two-week high of
96.94
Swiss Franc 0.8939
Pound 1.6176
Aussie 0.9598
India Rupee 61.495
South Korea Won 1060.90
Brazil Real 2.1894
Egypt Pound 6.8896
South Africa Rand 9.8124

I expect another Breakdown in the Dollar with the Euro/Dollar rate
targetting 1.4000.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.23 [Headed Lower]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

A two-day meeting at the Federal Open Market Committee will start
tomorrow after U.S payrolls rose less than projected last month and
the 16-day government shutdown took at least $24 billion out of the
economy.

The Fed is likely to delay lowering its $85 billion in monthly bond
purchases until March, according to a Bloomberg News survey of
economists conducted Oct. 17-18.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3798 [Heads to 1.4000]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 97.62 [will eventually trade a
105.00-110.00 Range]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1348.37 [Might reach 1385 through Year End
on No Taper and a Tide of Cheap Money]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 97.56
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.Z13.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Diageo will this week release 2,950 bottles of Port Ellen whisky –
at £1,500 a bottle. Within days, many will be offered on eBay at twice
that price

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2013/oct/26/scotch-whisky-village-distillery-died?guni=Keyword:news-grid%20main-1%20Main%20trailblock:Editable%20trailblock%20-%20news:Position5

 "Port Ellen's price has soared for a straightforward reason," says
Diageo's Nick Morgan. "We don't make it any more. Its scarcity is the
driver."

 "It has become the drink of aspiration for the spreading middle
classes of China, Latin America, Taiwan and other nations," said
Campbell Evans of the Scottish Whisky Association. A bottle of Johnnie
Walker, the world's biggest selling whisky, or another similar blend
on a sideboard has become a symbol of success in many homes around the
world. "The point is that Scottish whisky is made to very rigorous
manufacturing standards. When you buy a bottle, you know it will be
good and it will be just as good as the last bottle you bought," adds
Evans.

read more


Retail prices of onions have quadrupled in three months - now costing over 100 rupees ($1.62) a kilo
Emerging Markets


Indians eat their way through 15 million tons of onions a year, using
them as the base for traditional dishes such as biryani and bhaji.

Frontier Markets

read more


Mozambique says Renamo ambush kills one, injures 10 Reuters
Africa


Suspected Renamo guerrillas ambushed a passenger minibus in central
Mozambique on Saturday, killing one person and injuring 10 more in an
attack condemned by President Armando Guebuza, state media said.

Fears of hit-and-run attacks by armed partisans of Renamo opposition
leader Afonso Dhlakama have increased after the army overran
Dhlakama's base in central Sofala province on Monday, forcing him to
flee into the bush.

Former rebel group Renamo fought a 16-year civil war against the
ruling Frelimo party which ended in a 1992 peace pact that established
multi-party politics. Renamo has lost every election since 1992 and
Dhlakama's party, which is demanding electoral reforms, said on Monday
it was abandoning the peace agreement.

The latest fighting follows Renamo raids in April and June in Sofala
province. It is taking place several hundred kilometers (miles) north
of the capital Maputo in a rural province, but has raised concerns
that the country could slip back into a wider conflict that would
derail a coal and offshore gas investment boom that has boosted
economic growth.

The state news agency AIM said President Guebuza condemned Saturday's
attack on the minibus travelling between Machanga and the port of
Beira in Sofala province. The bus was burned out and two other
civilian vehicles were hit in the ambush, AIM said.

Renamo, which has said it does not want a return to all-out war, did
not immediately claim the ambush. It said this week one of Dhlakama's
top aides, former rebel and Renamo member of parliament Armindo
Milaco, was killed in the raid by government troops on Dhlakama's
Sathunjira camp on Monday.

Dhlakama is in hiding in an undisclosed location and Renamo spokesmen
say he is well.

AIM quoted Guebuza's spokesman Edson Macuacua as saying the Mozambican
president was still open to holding talks with the Renamo leader and
appealed to him to come forward. "The only solution to any difference
is dialogue," Macuacua said.

The United Nations, former colonial ruler Portugal, the Catholic
Church and foreign donor governments including the United States have
all called on Frelimo and Renamo to negotiate their differences and
avoid a return to war.

Maputo Boom Town 4th June 2012

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/040NSX0406.pdf

Of course, Mozambique has popped large onto the global radar because
of gas reserves that have been discovered offshore and in the deep
sea.

read more



UN Council to hold emergency DRC talks
Africa


The UN Security Council will hold emergency talks on Monday on a new
surge in fighting in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in which a
UN peacekeeper was killed, diplomats said as government troops cleared
rebels from strategic positions in the country's restive east.

The FARDC regular army took back control of both the city of Rutshuru
and the rebel-held town of Kiwanja, home to a base used by the UN
mission Monusco that had been repeatedly looted by rebels, said the
governor of North-Kivu province, Julien Paluku.

Monusco said a Tanzanian officer was killed in Kiwanja, where United
Nations forces joined the army to drive out rebels on the third day of
clashes since a fresh flare-up in violence on Friday. The
circumstances of his death were unclear, said the UN force.

The soldier was the third Tanzanian with the UN brigade to have been
killed in recent months.

Congo army says it captured rebel stronghold; peacekeeper killed Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/27/us-congo-democratic-rebels-idUSBRE99Q0DW20131027

Government forces said they captured the rebel stronghold of Rutshuru
on Sunday in a third day of fierce fighting in eastern Democratic
Republic of Congo in which one U.N. peacekeeper was killed and another
injured.

Following two months of relative calm in the region, fighting flared
on Friday after peace talks in neighboring Uganda broke down when M23
rebels demanded a full amnesty for their leaders. President Joseph
Kabila last week ruled out a blanket pardon.

Army spokesman Colonel Olivier Hamuli told U.N. radio Okapi on Sunday
that government forces had recaptured Rutshuru, some 70 km (43 miles)
north of Goma, the largest city in easternCongo. Rutshuru had been
taken by the rebels just over a year ago and was serving as a regional
base.

Army spokesman Hamuli said some M23 fighters had fled towards the
Rwandan border in the face of the army advance.

"There are small pockets of M23 resistance in the hills near Rwanda,"
he said. "We think Rwanda has to prove its good faith and oblige M23
to disarm, or disarm them itself."

Conclusions

Even with the sharpened Assistance of the UN, I cannot see Kinshasa
landing a decisive and definitive Blow and therefore err to the side,
that this needs a Political Solution.

Rutshuru
http://ds1.ds.static.rtbf.be/article/big_info/4/b/e/624_341_df2d288d3467bbd942b07453c15d1c8b-1382891228.jpg

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +18.38% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 9.8120
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8900
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +16.06% 2013 [Has closed above 6,000 since 20th
October - previously was last above 6,000 26th January 2011]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +37.63% 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +76.4% 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Tullow Oil @TullowOilPLC suspends work at two Kenya exploration blocks Reuters
Kenyan Economy


 Tullow Oil said on Saturday it had suspended drilling operations on
two blocks in northwest Kenya due to security concerns, after local
residents held protests demanding for more jobs at the sites.

"Tullow confirms that there have been a number of demonstrations at
Tullow operated sites in Northern Kenya today regarding local concerns
around employment," Tullow said in a statement.

"We have temporarily suspended our operations across Block 10BB and
Block 13T in Turkana East and Turkana South sub-counties. The priority
at the moment is to ensure the safety and security of our staff."

Tullow and Africa Oil have struck oil on both blocks and are in the
process of determining its commercial viability.

In July, London-listed Tullow, which is already producing oil in Ghana
and awaiting government approval to do so in Uganda, estimated
resource volumes in the Lokichar basin in Kenya's northwest at 300
million barrels of crude oil.

Tullow would not comment on whether any of its staff had to be
evacuated from the drilling sites, located in a remote part of the
east African nation.

read more


@KenyaAirways lands the Boeing 777-300ER
Kenyan Economy


“As our fleet and route expansion plan gains momentum, we are excited
to be receiving the Boeing 777-300ER. It enters into service in
November and will be flying non-stop to Guangzhou in China,” said
Naikuni.

@KenyaAirways share price data +8.854% in October
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=OA%3D%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           10.45
Total Shares Issued:          1496470000.00
Market Capitalization:        15,638,111,500
EPS:             -6.35
PE:                 -1.646

An interview with Dr. Titus Naikuni RICH TV

http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtvi.php

read more


SMSs warn of terror attacks at city malls Nation
Kenyan Economy


Security has been boosted at two shopping malls in the city following
text messages sent randomly that customers should keep off the centres
over an impending terror attack.

Guards at the Prestige and Junction shopping malls in Nairobi said
they had stepped up security checks and reported to the police about
the alarming text messages.

The police responded by sending teams to the malls to investigate the
source of the messages.

A private firm official in charge of security at the Prestige mall on
Ngong Road said a customer came running to the mall on Saturday
afternoon and showed guards a text message urging people to keep off
the two shopping complexes.

“It read: ‘Terror plot under way at the Prestige and Junction. Keep
off,’” he told the Nation.

The Pot of Gold Rainbow over Junction Mall Nairobi 2 Days Ago
http://www.twitpic.com/dipi7v

Ikrima is understood to be a senior commander of al-Shabaab’s “secret
service” unit, known as “the Amniyat”, which has been named in
connection with the Westgate siege

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/kenya/10405799/Al-Shabaab-leader-Ikrima-lived-in-UK-for-a-year.html

CBA jumps to second biggest retail lender on M-Shwari accounts boost
Business Daily

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/CBA-jumps-to-second-biggest-retail-lender-on-M-Shwari-accounts/-/539552/2049070/-/144j605/-/index.html

New CBK data shows that the number of deposit accounts rose by 2.15
million in the three months to September to stand at 21.1 million. The
jump has been attributed to the introduction of M-Shwari, a
mobile-phone based bank account launched last year. Its uptake has
seen CBA’s deposit accounts as at September surpass five million up
from 34,884 in 2011, to leave it second only to Equity Bank which
hosts over seven million accounts.

“There was increased uptake of banking services as evidenced by the
number of bank deposit accounts which increased from 18.97 million in
June to 21.12 million in September representing a growth of 2.15
million accounts or 11.3 per cent,” said CBK.

Customer savings however grew at a slower pace of 2.7 per cent to
Sh1.91 trillion, indicating the new accounts are of small savers,
consistent with mobile money users. CBA said some of M-Shwari
subscribers can now access loans of up to Sh8,000 based on their
saving trends on the mobile platform. CBA has displaced Co-operative
bank, KCB and Family Bank on its rise up the retail ladder.

“The numbers keep growing. We have now crossed the five million mark
and giving up to 30,000 loans a day,” said CBA’s chief executive
Jeremy Ngunze.

KCB also hopes to record a similar success with its recently launched
M-benki services, in which it has collaborated with Safaricom to see
the mobile firm’s subscribers open bank accounts with it from their
handsets. KCB aims to open three million accounts in the next 12
months using the service.

Formal financial inclusion which includes the banks, alternative
channels such as mobile technology and other institutions such as
Saccos and deposit taking microfinance institutions is at 67 per cent.

Safaricom share price data here +78.217% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           9.00
Total Shares Issued:          40000000000.00
Market Capitalization:        360,000,000,000
EPS:             0.44
PE:                 20.455

FY 2013 Earnings through 31st March 2013 versus FY through March 2012
FY Revenue 124.287856b versus 106.995529b +16.2%
FY Gross Profit 67.743420b versus 52.856310b +28.2%
FY Operating Expenses [40.643226b] versus [32.704953b] +24.3%
FY PBT 25.450565b versus 17.369400b +46.5%
FY PAT 17.539810b versus 12.627607b +38.9%
FY EPS 0.44 versus 0.32 +37.5%
FY Dividend 0.31 cents a share +40.9%
Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Period

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 84.904
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +38.1615% 2013
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +19.4047% 2013

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Official Closing Data has not been received as I file this.
Trading got off to a Slow Start this week and totalled 304.888m after
a very business Week last week.
The All Share is +38.1615% through this morning and less than 2% away
from an All Time Closing High reached earlier this month.
Africa Stock Markets have been on a Roll in 2013, with Ghana +76.4% in
2013 and at a Record, Nigeria is +37.63%, Egypt's EGX30 is above 6,000
and for the first time since January 2011 and the South Africa All
Share will close at a record today.
I expect African Equity Indices to rally 5%-10% through year End.
The kenya Shilling was last trading at 85.10 and the lower Crude Oil
Price plus No Taper in 2013 in the US, will support a Price of 83.00,
I venture.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 9.00 and traded 2.188m shares worth
19.775m. There was Buy Side Demand for 316% more shares than were
traded during the session at the closing Bell. 9.00 is a Level of
Price Support. Safaricom is +78.21% in 2013 and will retest its All
Time Closing High of 9.40 reached earlier this month. Safaricom will
release H1 Earnings in the first week of November.

Uchumi traded 2.004m shares and 0.755% of its shares worth 43.092m all
at 21.50. Uchumi trades on a PE Ratio of 15.926 [which is cheap versus
its SSA Peers] and reported a +30.3065% Acceleration in Full Year
Profit after Tax. There is Headroom in the Price.

Kenya Airways closed unchanged at 10.45 and traded 75,000 shares.
Kenya Airways is +8.802% in October and is in the process of clearing
some supply at 10.50 before a move towards 12.00.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank closed unchanged at 35.00 and was the most actively traded
share at the Securities Exchange today with 2.038m shares worth
71.352m changing hands. Equity Bank is +47.368% in 2013, trades on a
Trailing PE of 10.736 and accelerated H1 2013 Profit After Tax
+16.746%.
Barclays Bank rallied +1.35% to close at 18.75 and closed the session
trading at session Highs of 18.80 +1.62%. Barclays Bank traded 1.207m
shares worth 22.667m. Barclays Bank 114 versus 49 Demand versus Supply
Imbalance Ratio signifying strong Buy Side Support. Barclays Bank
trades on a PE of 11.645.
Kenya Commercial Bank eased 0.51% to close at 48.50 and traded light
volume of 166,100 shares. Kenya Commercial Bank is +63.025% in 2013
and is targetting 3m Accounts via its M-Benki Innovation in
partnership with Safaricom.
CFC Stanbic Bank eased 1.96% to close at 75.00 and traded 170,200
shares worth 12.827m. CFC Stanbic trades on a Trailing PE of  7.575
[and hence cheap versus its Peers] and accelerated H1 Profit After Tax
+81.43%.

Centum rallied +2.6785% to close at 28.75 and was trading at 29.00
+3.57% session Highs at the Finish Line. Centum traded 1.551m shares
[0.223% of its shares] worth 44.92m. Centum reported a +110.01%
Acceleration in its Full Year Profit after Tax and trades on a PE of
7.625.

“Capital Markets Authority has by way of a letter dated October 14,
2013 granted an exemption from complying with the requirement to make
a takeover offer under the Capital Markets (Take-over and Mergers)
Regulations, 2002 with respect to the proposed acquisition of an
additional 32,659,909 ordinary shares,” said Mr Kirubi in a public
notice published in the local dailies on Wednesday last week.

Kenya Re eased 1.02% to close at 14.50 and traded 865,000 shares.



--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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