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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 29th of October 2013
 
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Lilianne Ploumen Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Resume
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Personal details

Full name: Lilianne Ploumen
Place and date of birth: Maastricht, 12 July 1962
Place of residence: Amsterdam
Civil status: married, two children

Education

Master’s Degrees in Social History (1988) and Strategic Marketing
Management (1992)

Career

In 1983, while still at university, Lilianne Ploumen became a
community outreach worker in the Crooswijk area of Rotterdam. Two
years later she joined the Institute of Psychological Market Research
(IPM), working in the statistics department and as a research project
leader. IPM focuses on research-based consultancy.

In 1995 she founded Ploumen Projecten, an organisation specialising in
market research and innovation for commercial and non-profit clients.
In the same year she also began working as a fundraising coordinator
for Mama Cash, an international fund supporting women’s initiatives,
going on to become director of the organisation from 1996 to 2001.

From 2001 to 2007 Ms Ploumen worked for the development organisation
Cordaid, first as head of quality and strategy and later as director
of international programmes.

She was Chair of the Labour Party (PvdA) from October 2007 to January 2012.

On 5 November 2012 Lilianne Ploumen was appointed Minister for Foreign
Trade and Development Cooperation in the Rutte-Asscher government.

Party political positions and outside activities

Lilianne Ploumen previously held the position of Vice Chair of the
Evert Vermeer Foundation, and was a member of the Labour Party’s
South-North Committee (advising on international cooperation).
She has also been a board member of feminist organisation Opzij and
Women Inc. and member of the Stop Aids Now! supervisory board.

read more



China suspects Tiananmen crash a suicide attack: sources
Law & Politics


Chinese authorities suspect suicide attackers drove the vehicle that
ploughed into pedestrians at Beijing's Tiananmen Square and set it on
fire, killing five people including the three inside, sources told
Reuters on Tuesday.

Police are still investigating and have yet to determine the
identities of the three people in the vehicle, according to the
sources. But Beijing police said late on Monday they were looking for
two suspects from the restive far western region of Xinjiang in
connection with a "major incident".

The sources said that the men were suspected of lighting a flammable
material on the vehicle.

"It was no accident. The jeep knocked down barricades and rammed into
pedestrians. The three men had no plans to flee from the scene," said
the source who has ties to the leadership.

A Reuters reporter at the scene at the time said he did not heard any gunshots.

On Monday night, hours after the fire, Beijing police issued a notice
asking local hotels about suspicious guests who had checked in since
Oct 1 and named two suspects it said were from Xinjiang. Four hotels
told Reuters they had received the notice.

Judging by their names, the suspects appeared to be ethnic Uighurs,
who are Turkic-speaking Muslims from Xinjiang. Many Uighurs chafe at
Chinese controls on their culture and religion.

"They have been known to carry out attacks outside of Xinjiang," said
Yang Shu, a terrorism expert at China's Lanzhou University.

"There have also been reports that East Turkestan elements have
received training in Syria, so I would say the possibility does exist
of a Xinjiang connection," he added.

Conclusions

This might mark a serious Trend Change.

read more




@BarackOBAMA REALLY DIDN’T KNOW?
Law & Politics


The news that the National Security Agency was monitoring the
telephones of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and many other
foreign leaders is less shocking than the revelation that, for the
first four and a half years of his Presidency, Barack Obama, the
Commander-in-Chief, didn’t know anything about it. Can this be true?

Evidently, it is. According to a story in the Wall Street Journal on
Monday, the spying program targeted as many as thirty-five world
leaders, but it didn’t come to Obama’s attention until this summer
when, in the wake of Edward Snowden’s revelations, the Administration
carried out an internal review of the N.S.A.’s activities. “These
decisions are made at N.S.A.,” someone described as “a senior U.S.
official” told the Journal. “The President doesn’t sign off on this
stuff.”

read more


DR Congo M23 rebels 'all but finished', says UN BBC
Law & Politics


The UN's special envoy in the Democratic Republic of Congo has told
the organisation's Security Council that the M23 rebel movement is all
but finished as a military threat.

Martin Kobler said the M23 had abandoned most military positions in
the east and was confined to a small triangle close to the Rwandan
border.

A fifth rebel-held area in a week fell to government forces on Monday.

The rebels say that their withdrawals are temporary.

Conclusions

Mr Kobler told the UN Security Council by video-link: "It is
practically the military end of the M23."

He said the rebels had abandoned a key position on Mount Hehu near the
Rwandan border.

The Congo river is enormous, stretching almost to the murky horizon
on both sides. Ollivier Girard/CIFOR

http://www.flickr.com/photos/cifor/8098924471/in/set-72157631932852341/

read more


Hussein @BarackObama and @HassanRouhani The Price of Crude Oil and Kenya's Eurobond
Law & Politics


The recent rapprochement between President Barack Obama and Iran's
Hassan Rouhani has certainly snapped a losing sequence in US-Iran
relations that goes all the way back to the Iranian revolution in 1979
when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of
Iran.

The Shah was the second and last monarch of the House of Pahlavi and
otherwise known as the peacock throne. Hussein [Barack Hussein Obama]
and Hassan [Rouhani] share the same name as did Prophet Muhammed's
revered grandsons. Those who pursue the study of anthroponymy
[personal names] especially in the Islamic World probably view this as
very fortuitious.

I was wandering around the Hirshhorn Gallery in Washington last year
and I came across this from the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei: What's in a
name? A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one
fixed part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic
characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich,
all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the
expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.

Hussein and Hassan are going to cut through a great deal of
interference. In this situation, there are powerful vested interests
fully invested in the status quo. If the pax Americana in the Middle
East were a three legged stool with the US the most important leg,
then Israel and Saudi Arabia are the other two legs of that stool.
Neither Riyadh nor Tel Aviv are aligned with President Obama's Iranian
rapprochement and Saudi Arabia in particular has become increasingly
forthright and is even threatening its own pivot and away from the US.
I enjoy trading crude oil because I believe crude oil has a big
'geopolitical' component in the price.

Since trading just below $110.00 at the end of August, the price of
WTI [West Texas Intermediate] has retreated more than 10% to trade at
97.85, at last. That retreat in the price is entirely correlated to a
reduction in the 'geopolitical' premium as the two Presidents thawed
previously frozen relations. In fact, if the US and Iran were able to
cut through the noise and to the chase, WTI could trade as low as
$75.00. Notwithstanding the oil finds in Turkana, Kenya remains an oil
importer.

Our economy exhibits an extreme sensitivity to the price of crude oil.
Therefore, one could argue that Kenya is one of those countries that
is most heavily invested in the Hussein and Hassan tryst. The 10%
price retreat has not yet fed into our economy because Kenya buys its
fuel on a monthly calendar basis but it will feed in. This will begin
to boost the economy into year end. The 'debt ceiling' stand-off in
the US essentially took the froth off the US economy and delayed the
much awaited taper.

Under a programme called QE3, the US has been adding $85b monthly to
its economy and expectations were high that she would throttle back on
its $85b. It was this expectation which was the catalyst for a
collapse in the Indian Rupee to an all time low, for example, and not
too long ago. The US 10 year yield had surged to as high as 3%. The US
10 year yield at 3% was complicating the issue of our inaugural
sovereign eurobond. Essentially, everything trades off the US. The US
is the reference price.

The US 10 year yield has improved to 2.5% last month and this has made
conditions for our eurobond as close to optimal as they are ever going
to be. I expect a $2b issue, which will be the largest issue by a
sub-Saharan African country. Plenty to consider and plenty of moving
parts.

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3783  touched $1.3832 on Oct. 25, the strongest since November 2011.
Dollar Index 79.34
Japan Yen 97.52 Retail sales rose 1.8 percent last month from August,
the statistics bureau said in Tokyo today. That exceeded the 0.5
percent increase predicted
Swiss Franc 0.8956
Pound 1.6094
Aussie 0.9512 RBA’s Stevens said the Aussie’s level isn’t supported by
costs and productivity in the economy. It’s quite likely that, at some
point, the local dollar will be “materially lower” than currently, he
said in a speech in Sydney.
India Rupee 61.485 Governor Raghuram Rajan boosted the repurchase rate
to 7.75 percent from 7.5 percent, the Reserve Bank of India said today
Rupee is -12% in 2013
South Korea Won 1060.80
Brazil Real 2.1802
Egypt Pound 6.8888
South Africa Rand 9.8620

“Most people think tapering won’t begin until spring, as the fallout
from the government shutdown has made a move this year highly
unlikely.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/dollar-set-for-monthly-losses-against-most-peers-as-fed-meets.html

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.34 [to stay under pressure
through Year End]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3783 [Dollar has declined
1.9% this month versus the Euro]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 97.52
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1343.10 [Prices touched $1,361.93 yesterday,
the highest since Sept. 20.]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Gold lost 19 percent in 2013 after rallying for 12 years.

Conclusions

Its all about the deferred Taper and Gold will now rally though Year End.

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 98.35
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.Z13.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI Drops From One-Week High; Goldman Cuts OPEC Outlook on Libya
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-29/wti-oil-drops-from-one-week-high-as-crude-supplies-seen-rising.html

Brent rallied 2.5 percent yesterday, the most since Oct. 10, as
Libya’s crude production was cut by half amid protests. Output from
the country, which holds Africa’s largest oil reserves, last month
fell to the lowest among OPEC’s 12 members, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg.

Production nationwide dropped to about 250,000 to 300,000 barrels a
day as minority Tuareg nomads seeking greater recognition halted crude
flows from the Al-Sharara field, the state-run National Oil Corp. said
yesterday. Output will resume over the next 24 hours, Libya News
Agency said today, citing Oil Minister Abdulbari Al-Arusi.

Goldman reduced its projection for OPEC supply by 190,000 barrels a
day and maintained its Brent prediction at an average of $110 a barrel
for the near term. Libyan output will be constrained at about 650,000
barrels a day through the end of the year, according to Jeffrey
Currie, the head of commodity research in New York.

Conclusions


Libya is a Known Known.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more


Congolese army, succeeded on Monday in taking back the fifth, rebel-held town, in what appears to be a turning point in the conflict.
Africa


"I confirm that we have just taken the city of Rumangabo," said
Congolese military spokesperson Olivier Hamuli. "[We] entered the city
at 11:00 and were met by the applause of the population."

From Turning Point to Tipping Point - AfDB President  @DonaldKaberuka
Opening Remarks at the 8th African Economic Conference

http://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/article/from-turning-point-to-tipping-point-afdb-presidents-opening-remarks-at-the-8th-african-economic-conference-12413/

Eight years ago the idea was floated to get African economic
researchers, practitioners, think tanks, our own economists at the
Bank and policy makers together regularly. Louis Kasekende – our
then-Chief Economist – was the sponsor of the idea.

Since then this group has done quite a lot to advance our
understanding of the African economy and the international
ramifications. This time you have selected a theme which is at the
core of the work of the African Development Bank – regional
integration.

The subject that brings us here today, the economic integration of
Africa is not new. With the political liberation of the continent
achieved, economic integration is the main goal of the AU. It is the
reason for existence of the numerous Regional Economic Communities
and, incidentally, for those who may not know it, the principal reason
the African Development Bank was created.

As I was flying here, reflecting on this conference, I looked at the
map of South Africa, Africa’s largest economy. This is a country with
nine provinces. It is the only country in Africa which straddles the
Indian and the Atlantic Oceans and two time zones. Many of those nine
provinces have a GDP that is a multiple of many countries in the rest
of Africa, although not all. If the province in which we are now
meeting, Gauteng, were a country it would be Africa’s fifth-largest
economy. I understand, too, that the smallest economic province – the
Northern Cape – still has a GDP larger than many countries north of
the Limpopo. A thought always crossed my mind. Just imagine for a
second, that each of these nine, provinces, each one of them, had its
own currency, passport, borders, investment laws, immigration
barriers, let alone its army and Foreign Service. I could go on but
the conclusion is a no-brainer. Even with all the natural wealth each
one of them would be probably poorer than it is today. So we all know
the price our continent pays for balkanisation.

We understand the impatience the ordinary people, the frustrations
business feel. When the founding fathers of the African Union agreed
to maintain the borders created by colonial partition, they at the
same time agreed to the imperative of economic integration. The
progress to date is encouraging but highly variable. In East Africa,
in COMESA, ECOWAS and SADC, much is going on. In contrast, the pace is
probably a little slower in the north and the centre of the continent.

And where the pace is right the results are beginning to show. Almost
everywhere tariffs are no longer the big issue, but non-tariff
restrictions remain an issue. Intra-COMESA trade is up from USD 3
billion in 2000 to USD 20 billion in 2012. There has been a 50%
increase in intra-EAC trade since they adopted the Customs Union. Even
for intra-African trade, if you add informal trade the share is now
probably close to 20%. While this is still far behind other regions of
the world, it indicates the ground we have covered.

The first is the implications for Africa of the calamitous state of
the global economy and the urgent need to build stronger resilience
against external shocks. To put it quite simply, it is now urgent and
business as usual will not do.

The second is a strong conviction that, although many countries have
done well in the last decade, that momentum will be hard to sustain
without a quantum leap on integration.

Easing the flow of goods across borders is vital for African
countries, an agreement that would be very welcome. But when shall we
see movement on other areas so key for Africa to trade her way out of
poverty, areas such agriculture – and I do not mean only cotton – or
issues around tariff escalation, rules of origin and many more, even
areas around services, which for a country like South Africa now
accounts for 65% of its GDP and 70% of employment?

The lesson Africa must draw from this is that with a sluggish global
economy and a tough ride to multilateral solutions, building Africa’s
internal market cannot be done by business as usual.

This brings me to my next point, the reason we are here. There is now
a wide celebration of Africa’s performance. For many it is Africa
rising, whatever that means. For others, this is a bubble waiting to
bust, a cynical view we have got used to.

But take a careful, more nuanced look. We are 54 countries with
different endowments, starting points, and socio economic conditions.
Some are endowed with rich natural resources; they export oil, gas or
mining products. Others are low-income, net oil importers. Several
countries are conflict-affected. A number of African nations are large
middle income open economies. Some are small, middle-income island
economies. A number are landlocked.

So, as I was saying at Brookings early this month, anyone can find
evidence of whichever hypothesis or biases they wish to confirm.
Whoever wants to show that Africa is not rising, all they have to do
is focus on the Horn of Africa, the Central African Republic, the
Sahel, youth unemployment, power problems, inequalities and more.

Those looking for the positive story look at 20 countries growing at
over 6.5% in the middle of this global slowdown. Look at the dramatic
decline in infant mortality, the reduction in poverty headcount, the
increase in investment flows – not simply in the extractives but also
agribusiness – manufacturing and services.

However, here is the point: I have yet to meet a serious analyst who
disagrees that Africa has turned a corner. But at no time should we
Africans confuse a “turning point" with a “tipping point." At this
moment a third of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will see
economic growth of more than 6.5%. The remainder, exception made of
those in conflict, will hover around 5%.

What Africa needs is not 5% growth. It is at the minimum 7%.

Two factors are critical here: the infrastructure gap, which shaves
off 2% of growth per year, and getting our markets together. This is
what investors are looking for; this is what they tell us. This is
what it takes to join the higher levels of the global value chains.
That is what will create an internal market that is robust and
resilient to resist external shocks. That is where jobs are. That is
where transformation begins, in the global value chains. And that
begins next door. That is the tipping point, at a time like this of
weak global demand, with so much volatility, so many unknowns. The
real cushion – the engine – is Africa’s internal market.

So lesson one, not surprisingly, is that hard infrastructure on its
own is simply an enabler. Unless followed by swift action on such
non-tariff barriers and restrictions, both direct and indirect costs
savings cancel out. And there is a whole range of issues to deal with
at that point, as experts in these issues tell me, behind the border,
at the border and beyond the border. This is why efforts by
governments to promote simpler documentation and single border posts
are very much to be applauded.

Let me give another example on cross-country power interconnection,
the power pools, of which the Bank is a key player. At this moment
there is a power crisis in almost every country. As economies rapidly
expand, demand for power has outstripped supply. It is not so much the
lack of energy sources that is a problem. The continent has a good
capacity in hydropower, geothermal, other renewables and, of course,
fossil fuels, including the ongoing large gas discoveries.

The power sector requires a lot of public investments, from production
and transmission. But it is clear public sources alone will not
suffice. We know, too, that private investors, as they did in the
1990s after telecom deregulation, are poised to get involved:

That is why I applaud the ongoing reforms in the power sector across
the continent from South Africa to Tanzania, to Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana
and more. Courageous decisions to remove line subsidies and replace
them with targeted subsidies to those who need them, the poor: this is
what will enable countries where the energy potential is
geographically located to produce and export power to neighbours, thus
creating an energy market we need.

Recently I commissioned an evaluation of the maritime port capacity
around Africa. Not surprisingly, outside South Africa, Egypt and
Morocco, all our ports are now reaching capacity. They require massive
investments as we have done recently, supporting port development in
Djibouti, in Togo, in Senegal and Namibia. Many more are coming up.

This port, though located in Namibia, is for all intents and purposes
a regional facility. It serves all the countries of SADC and beyond.
So any inefficiencies at such ports are external costs imposed on all
the user countries and the regional economy at large. This is one area
that Regional Economic Communities must now focus on, and we are
prepared to assist.

There is no disagreement that many of the cross-border
transformational projects Africa needs will continue to require public
money, national resources, capital markets and Development Finance
Organisations. You have heard the numbers before.

From all the above sources we can raise about USD 50 billion a year.
That leaves a gap of USD 42 billion. A way, therefore, must be found
to attract private investors in commercially viable infrastructure. We
have seen the experience with undersea cables, energy projects.
Private capital is looking for opportunities. But it requires that
such projects are brought to the level of bankability, that they are
de-risked through a whole range of instruments, and that an
appropriate structured financial vehicle exists.

This is what the African Development Bank is doing with Africa50, of
which you will hear more at this conference. With the Bank as the
anchor investor, we are calling upon African institutional investors
to build our continent with our own savings while earning a decent
return. The Bank’s track record in private sector development, in
PPPs, will be brought to bear to support such a vehicle’s take-off,
and taking a key role in the de-risking of such projects.

At this time, when many countries are accumulating huge amounts of
surpluses from natural resource discoveries and huge amounts of rent,
it is time for Africa to invest in Africa for Africa. Not in
low-return or loss-making propositions but in safe, high-return assets
that builds our economies, too.

Let me end where I began. We are not here to make a case for regional
integration. That case was made long ago. We are here because Africa
is at a critical juncture, determined to convert the turning point
into the tipping point. That should be the clarion call. It is urgent.

It us urgent because of the parlous state of the global economy that
calls on us to build internal resilience and unlock Africa’s market of
one billion people, thereby creating conditions for joining the global
higher value chains.

For those who would say “But this requires a vast amount of financial
resources”, I would agree. But Africa is investing its half-a-trillion
dollar savings abroad from its newly discovered wealth, oil, gas, etc.
It is an opportunity in a generation to get it right this time,
avoiding mistakes of the past.

But in any case, the things we have to do for the deeper integration
of Africa do not always call for money. Instead, we could implement
the commitments we have already entered into, from the movement of
people and shared services to joint centres of excellence.

These are times for strategic decisions on where Africa goes next. Who
does not decry the complexity, the difficulties, and the costs of
flying within Africa? But we have the Yamoussoukro Agreement to
deregulate the aviation sector. That single act alone would most
likely bring more investors into the sector, driving flying costs
down, probably as much as 40%.

I will not say much about free movement of skilled and business persons.

At the end of the day if we are to deepen integration more quickly,
countries will have to rethink the zero-sum calculus that says "You
will gain/I will lose" which is a sort of prisoners’ dilemma as to
what the other side will do if I am the first to make a move. Evidence
is ample that along the way it is a win-win for each and every one
and, as we can see from the euro zone, variable geometry comes with
costs Africa cannot afford.

I look forward to your deliberations and I thank you for listening.

Zimbabwe Deciding How to Structure Mine Funding Bond
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-27/zimbabwe-deciding-how-to-structure-mine-funding-bond.html

Zimbabwe’s government is determining how to structure the sale of the
country’s first international bond and is seeking advisers as it aims
to raise financing to fund mining development, Walter Chidakwa, the
country’s mines minister, said.

“We haven’t worked out how much we are going to raise and who is
actually going to work in putting together the bond,” Chidakwa said in
an Oct. 26 interview at Mimosa platinum mine near Zvishavane, 299
kilometers (186 miles) southwest of the capital, Harare.

On Oct. 10 Chidakwa told an industrial conference in Bulawayo, the
country’s second-biggest city, that the government was considering a
bond sale to create a fund to finance mining. The government of
Zimbabwe, which has the world’s second-biggest platinum and chrome
reserves, is compelling mining companies to sell or cede 51 percent of
their local assets to black citizens of the country or the state.

Companies including Rio Tinto Plc (RIO), Mwana Africa Plc (MWA) and
Anglo American Platinum Ltd. (AMS) dig minerals and metals ranging
from diamonds to gold and platinum in Zimbabwe. Mimosa is an equally
owned venture between South Africa’s Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd.
(IMP) and Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (AQP)

The platinum industry needs as much as $5.3 billion if it is to expand
to produce more than 500,000 ounces of the metal and to construct
precious and base metal refineries, the Platinum Produces Committee
said in a report this month. Production is forecast at 365,000 ounces
this year, according to the group, which represents Impala, Anglo
American Platinum and Aquarius.

Chidakwa declined to comment further on the planned bond.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +18.73% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

read more



Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 9.8642
Africa


Impala Workers to Strike at World’s Biggest Platinum Mine
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/impala-workers-to-strike-at-world-s-biggest-platinum-mine.html

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8888
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +13.78% 2013 [Has closed above 6,000 since
October 20th - previously above 6,000 26th January 2011]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +36.96% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +76.38% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

A suspected U.S. drone strike killed at least two Islamist al Shabaab
insurgents driving in a car south of the Somali capital Mogadishu,
residents said on Monday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/28/us-somalia-drone-idUSBRE99R10Y20131028

Ibrahim Ali, believed to be al Shabaab's lead explosives expert, was
among the dead, one U.S. official said, speaking to Reuters on
condition of anonymity, without offering details on how the United
States carried out the strike.

Al Shabaab claimed responsibility for a September attack on the
Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi that killed at least 67 people.

Witnesses to Monday's strike said the drone fired a missile at the car
in the outskirts of Jilib town in the Middle Jubba region, some 75
miles north of the port of Kismayu in the country's South.

"This afternoon, I heard a big crash and saw a drone disappearing far
into the sky, at least two militants died," said Hassan Nur, a
resident in the area.

"I witnessed a Suzuki car burning, many al Shabaab men came to the
scene. I could see them carry the remains of two corpses. It was a
heavy missile that the drone dropped. Many cars were driving ahead of
me but the drone targeted this Suzuki," he added.

@MYC_Press Twitter Handle

https://twitter.com/MYC_Press

Inline image 1MYC Press Office @MYC_Press16 Oct
contd: In the ranks of the Muj in Somalia one often hears phrases like
"geezer" "oi" "bruv" and "mate". what a bunch!

Inline image 1MYC Press Office @MYC_Press25 Oct
the Muj have cadres of young resourceful Muslims who have brought
various skill sets from afar. "ragtag"? certainly NOT!
Al-Shabaab 2.0

http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php?dt=MjAxMy0xMC0wMw%3D%3D#B32324

Interestingly, I think the #Westgate Attackers might well represent an
Al-Shabaab 2.0. The Extraordinary thing is how Al-Shabaab are able to
leverage the new Digital World to such outstanding effect. The
Linguistics around their Tweets speak powerfully to the fact that
Al-Shabaab's Audience is no longer in Mogadishu, its in the Diaspora
Communities in the West in Minneapolis, London et al. The Direction of
their Digital Voice speaks volumes to the Internationalisation of this
Group.

read more


"The prosecution submits that the trial chamber should vacate the (October 18) Kenyatta decision and revert to the general rule... that Mr Kenyatta must (also) be present during trial," chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda said in an application.
Kenyan Economy


@TullowoilPLC Tullow Oil's (TLW.L) suspension of drilling in Kenya
after weekend protests shows that popular impatience for a share of
the spoils is compounding the problems energy firms face building an
oil and gas industry from scratch in east Africa.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/28/us-kenya-tullow-analysis-idUSBRE99R0TX20131028

Backed by local politicians, demonstrators from Kenya's poor, northern
Turkana community marched on Tullow sites demanding jobs and other
benefits, prompting one of Sub-Saharan Africa's most experienced oil
explorers to "temporarily" halt work.

Local populations are understandably anxious for a windfall, but
production may be years away, and such direct action is only likely to
slow the region's emergence as a significant producer.

"There are numerous potential risks on exploration projects in poor,
remote areas," said Tom Savory at consultancy Africa Practice.
"Navigating local politics can be just as much of a challenge as
navigating national politics."

"We welcome them (Tullow) to Turkana. But we want to start benefiting
as early as possible," said James Lomenen, a regional member of
parliament who joined the protest at Twiga South-1 site. He said he
saw workers evacuated from the site.

"No one was telling them to go; the community was just coming to have
dialogue," he said, adding that the protest was peaceful and
demonstrators "were just outside singing".

An industry source, however, described a "very tense" scene, and a
senior Kenyan energy ministry official, Martin Heya, said politicians,
whom he did not name, had stirred things up.

"We want them (Tullow) to work as soon as possible," Heya said. "We
shall work with security agents to make sure they feel secure," he
added, after police said they beefed up security.

Conclusions

The Local Community is a Tinderbox. Expectations are not being
managed. And the situation is ripe for a Politician to pick at.

read more



East African Portland Cement reports FY PAT 2013 of 1.775b versus a FY Loss 972.715m previously Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           69.50
Total Shares Issued:          90000000.00
Market Capitalization:        6,255,000,000
EPS:             19.73
PE:                3.522

FY Through June 2013 versus FY Through June 2012
FY Turnover 9.211462b versus 8.508120b +8.266%
FY Cost of Sales [6.878139b] versus [7.391003b] -6.939%
FY Administration and Selling Expenses [2.085768b] versus [2.031536b]
FY Profit from Operating Activities 340.931m versus [793.714m]
FY Exchange gains on Forex Loan 594.113m versus [61.574m] - Portland
is heavily correlated to @AbeShinzo 's Abenomics and a weak Yen
Fair Value on Investment Property 730.046m
FY Profit Before Tax 1.419478b versus [1.032914b]
FY Profit After Tax 1.775383b versus [972.715m]
FY Earnings Per Share 19.73 versus [10.81]
FY Dividend 75cents a share

Conclusions

Strong Turnaround Numbers. Portland is heavily correlated to Shinzo
Abe's Abenomics and a weaker Yen as evidenced in the 594.113m FX Gain
and represented 41.85% of the FY Profit Before Tax.
much improved Numbers.

H1 Earnings through 31st December 2012 versus H1 through December 2011
H1 Revenue 4.549385b versus 4.952435b
Cost of Sales [3.204266b] versus [4.062310b]
Gross Profit 1.345119b versus 0.890125b
Other Operating Income 42.447m versus 5.443m
Admin and Selling Expenses [1.000298b] versus [1.126259b]
H1 PBT 376.52m versus [247.201m]
H1 PAT 327.193m versus [376.634m]
H1 EPS 3.63 versus [4.18]
Forex Gain of 145m. [They have a Yen Loan and therefore should be
Cheerleaders of Abenomics]

Conclusions

Strong Turn Around Results.
They booked a Forex Gain via a Yen Loan that is on the Books and
therefore They must be cheerleaders of Abenomics.

read more


Housing Finance has posted a 70.65 growth in net income in the first nine months of this year Business Daily
Kenyan Economy


Housing Finance Q3 2013 Earnings Release here
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Housing%20Finance%20un-audited%20Group_results%20as%20at%2030-September-2013..pdf

Housing Finance share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTg%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           26.25
Total Shares Issued:          230000000.00
Market Capitalization:        6,037,500,000
EPS:             3.22
PE:                 8.152

H1 Earnings through June 2013
H1 PBT 574.12m versus 357.581m +60.5566%
H1 PAT 397.121m versus 250.373m +58.611%
H1 EPS 3.44 versus 2.17 +58.525%

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 85.15

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +37.8136% 2013 [2.1482% below a Record
Closing High of 133.60 set 8th October]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +19.5335% 2013

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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