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Thursday 03rd of October 2013
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Morning Africa |
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke
Domenico Fanizza & Ragnar Gudmundsson @IMFNews #MindSpeak
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FRwlD0BKuw |
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U.S., Japan to modernize alliance to counter 21st century threats Reuters Law & Politics |
Washington's desire for Japan to take a greater role in its defense
dovetails with the rise of nationalist Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who
has taken a more assertive approach toward such security issues as a
territorial dispute with China and the threat from nearby North Korea.
"Our goal is a more balanced and effective alliance," U.S. Defense
Secretary Chuck Hagel told a news conference after the first "2+2"
meeting to be held in Tokyo.
Conclusions
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China has spent more than $50bn (£31bn) in the past three months on energy and infrastructure deals in central Asia as Beijing seeks to establish a "new Silk Road" through the region. Law & Politics |
Chinese outbound investment totalled just over $100bn in the third
quarter of 2013 with around half of that sum spent in the central
Asian states visited by the Chinese president Xi Jinping on an
official tour last month.
"Investment closely tracks where the [Beijing] government turns up,"
said Henry Tillman, the chief executive of the merchant bank Grisons
Peak which compiled the figures. "We've not noticed such a strong
correlation before".
Xi visited Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in
September and signed sizable business deals with all four countries.
Conclusions
This is the Chinese Counter Offensive versus the US Pivot and Encirclement.
Why al-Shabab's Westgate massacre is just the tip of the iceberg for
an Africa on the edge of dysfunction @hofrench
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/10/02/demography_is_destiny_africa_al_shabab?page=0,0
Make no mistake, the spread of al Qaeda -- or even merely of its
values -- in Africa represents a serious challenge for the continent,
but people who focus excessively on this aspect of African instability
do so at the expense of more fundamental problems.
The biggest challenges facing Africa have little to do with religion,
per se, and even less with global terrorism. Fundamentally, what
unites groups like al-Shabab, Boko Haram, and the Islamist rebels who
nearly took over Mali earlier this year is not radical Islam, but an
even deeper reality: the gradual erosion of the basic institutions of
the state across much of the continent.
This may seem surprising on the face of it, because although Somalia
has been famously ungoverned for most of the last two decades, during
which time it has become the very symbol of the failed state, Nigeria
and Mali, like a great many other African states, have been pluralist
and formally democratic for some time. The economy of sub-Saharan
Africa is growing faster than it has in years, faster indeed than any
other continent. Here and there, middle classes are sprouting rapidly,
and life expectancy and other health indicators are improving.
But as the old cliché goes, African states are almost without
exception artificial creations, defined, if never fully forged, in the
experience of European colonialism. The modern African nation-state
has survived since then in large part because the international
community has insisted on its relevance. In practice, what this has
meant is that the United Nations has accorded countries recognition,
treating their existence not just as a juridical fact, but as entities
that must be propped up and supported. This, in turn, has created an
extraordinary opportunity for local political elites to game the
international system and collect lucrative rents while doing just
enough to maintain the fiction of statehood. Some African countries
have managed the challenge of constructing nations better than others,
building a real sense of identity and belonging among their citizens.
Countries like Ghana, Malawi, and Zambia, to name just three,
increasingly have seen political parties alternate in power after
peaceful, competitive democratic elections. Other countries have seen
even more robust institutions take root. More broadly still, a period
of brisk and generalized African economic growth has lent a hopeful
patina of modernization and newfound dynamism to many parts of the
continent.
What the recent spate of terrorism and insurgency should alert us to,
however, is that without even more dramatic progress, the juridical
fictions of many African states will not be robust enough for their
people to prosper in during the years ahead and perhaps may not even
survive as the familiar entities that appear fixed on today's maps. To
be sure, security -- which is the centerpiece of much American
attention to the continent -- is important, but in many African states
the biggest shortcomings lie elsewhere, notably in the provision of
other basic services, from essential utilities to education.
The most powerful challenges ahead should point us away from religion
and terrorism because they are linked instead to immense demographic
and environmental changes that are already well under way on the
continent. As Africa's population potentially triples to over 3
billion over the course of this century -- bigger than India and China
combined -- many states risk falling further and further behind in
meeting the needs (and securing the loyalties) of their citizens
The obsessive focus on the militant Islamic character of al-Shabab,
which goes hand in hand with America's post-9/11 preoccupation with
terrorism, obscures the way that Somalia's failure as a state may be a
dress rehearsal in minor key for broader and potentially far more
consequential state failure around the continent.
This approach sharply increases the odds that Congo will not merely
continue to swell, but explode one day, as its people respond with
desperation and intensifying violence to mounting disorganization and
hopelessness.
In Nigeria, it is Boko Haram, with what have lately become almost
constant attacks in the predominantly Muslim north, that have brought
that country, at least episodically, to the world's attention. "There
are few countries as large as Nigeria that are so underreported and
misunderstood outside their shores," wrote Michael Peel in the
introduction to his excellent 2010 book, A Swamp Full of Dollars:
Pipelines and Paramilitaries at Nigeria's Oil Frontier.
Fighting terrorism only gets at a tiny piece of this. Kenyan stability
and prosperity, like that of any of its neighbors, cannot be secured
in isolation but rather depends on the quality of the neighborhood,
and restoring functional statehood to Somalia is the biggest project
on hand.
Conclusions
Dear Howard,
I trust You are well? You are quite right to underscore the risks
around the 'Demographic Dividend.' The Risks are surely binary and
high beta. We have this Surge of Young People, in many instances
surfing the c21st on their Mobile Phones and whose expectations are of
a completely different and higher Quantum when compared to any
preceding African Generation. The Broad Macro Trends [especially as
painted by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation] are all apparently headed in the
right direction. However, the 'ungoverned spaces' constitute a Huge
Risk which can escalate exponentially at any time.
I think the Fundamental issue for African Governments is how to
create broad based ownership amongst their citizens. I think Mrs.
Thatcher clearly is a Signifier. Governments would do well to sell
their investments and Parastatals to their Citizens at steep
discounts. I think this would be a powerful Tool for reducing SSA
Political Risk and it makes economic sense as well.
Interestingly, I think the #Westgate Attackers might well represent an
Al-Shabaab 2.0. The Extraordinary thing is how Al-Shabaab are able to
leverage the new Digital World to such outstanding effect. The
Linguistics around their Tweets speak powerfully to the fact that
Al-Shabaab's Audience is no longer in Mogadishu, its in the Diaspora
Communities in the West in Minneapolis, London et al. The Direction of
their Digital Voice speaks volumes to the Internationalisation of this
Group.
Faithfully
Aly-Khan Satchu
Nairobi
Gambia quits the Commonwealth
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/03/gambia-quits-commonwealth-yahya-jammeh
"The government has withdrawn its membership of the British
Commonwealth and decided that the Gambia will never be a member of any
neo-colonial institution and will never be a party to any institution
that represents an extension of colonialism," the statement said.
The current situation was a “dreamland” for foreign spies, Director of
National Intelligence James Clapper told a Senate committee, saying
that some 70 per cent of intelligence employees had been placed on
unpaid leave.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-shutdown-and-looming-debt-crisis-talks-between-president-obama-and-congressional-leaders-fail-to-break-the-policy-deadlock-8854474.html
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“The fiscal shenanigans in Washington mean more potential for volatility and choppiness.” International Trade |
“The focus is on the U.S., and the ongoing pushback we’re seeing in
tapering expectations, and the toll that’s taking on U.S. bond yields
and the U.S. dollar,” said Mike Jones, a currency strategist at Bank
of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington
Boehner and other congressional leaders met with Obama for more than
an hour yesterday inWashington. As he exited the meeting at the White
House, Boehner said Obama must recognize that the U.S. has a divided
government.
“The American people expect their leaders to come together and try to
find ways to resolve their differences,” said Boehner, an Ohio
Republican. Obama has said he won’t negotiate with Republicans on the
budget until they reopen the government and raise the borrowing limit
without conditions.
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.3602 The dollar declined 0.2 percent percent to $1.3607 per
euro as of 6:34 a.m. in London after reaching $1.3623, the weakest
since Feb. 4.
Dollar Index 79.86 “The U.S. dollar continues to be the loser from the
Washington standoff,” National Australia Bank Ltd
Japan Yen 97.66
Swiss Franc 0.9019
Pound 1.6222
Aussie 0.9396
India Rupee 61.885
South Korea Won 1071.26
Brazil Real 2.1924 Brazil’s real rose to a one-week high
Egypt Pound 6.8916
South Africa Rand 10.0153
The dollar has fallen 0.6 percent in the past week, according to
Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes. The yen has strengthened 0.9
percent and the euro has gained 0.4 percent.
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3602 [Euro looks overextended]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
“Real GDP growth in the second quarter was positive, after six
quarters of negative output growth, and confidence indicators up to
September confirm the expected gradual improvement in economic
activity from low levels,” Draghi said. “The overall improvements in
financial markets seen since last summer appear to be gradually
working their way through to the real economy.”
12-AUG-2013 ::The Recovery in the West is not a Mirage It Is Real
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1208.pdf
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.86
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the
greenback against 10 leading global currencies, was little changed at
1,008.21 after falling to its lowest level since Sept. 19.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were at 2.62 percent, after reaching
a seven-week low of 2.59 percent on Sept. 30.
Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 97.66
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ Commodities |
Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1312.30
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12
Prices climbed 2.2 percent yesterday, rebounding from an eight-week
low of $1,277.15, after a private report showed U.S. companies added
fewer workers than forecast in September, supporting the case for the
Fed to maintain its $85 billion-a-month of bond buying.
“The market expects a short shutdown that will have a minimal impact
on the broader economy and doesn’t change the Fed’s timetable on
tapering,” said Mark To, head of research at Wing Fung Financial
Group, a Hong Kong-based precious metals trader and refiner. “If the
budget standoff stretches into next week, it could begin to negatively
impact the economy, and the demand for a safe haven will support
gold.”
Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 103.64
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.X13.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Futures slid as much as 0.5 percent in New York after jumping 2
percent yesterday to the highest price since Sept. 20. WTI for
November delivery dropped as much as 52 cents to $103.58 a barrel in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at
$103.76 at 12:47 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday advanced
to $104.10 in the first gain in four days. The volume of all futures
traded was about 65 percent below the 100-day average.
Conclusions
I think we will test $100.00 because of a deflated ME Geopolitical Premium.
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The Only Andy Warhol in Nairobi that I know of - Dodo Cunningham-Reid International Trade |
What’s great about this country is America started the tradition where
the richest consumers buy essentially the same things as the poorest.
You can be watching TV and see Coca-Cola, and you can know that the
President drinks Coke, Liz Taylor drinks Coke, and just think, you can
drink Coke, too. A Coke is a Coke and no amount of money can get you a
better Coke than the one the bum on the corner is drinking. All the
Cokes are the same and all the Cokes are good.
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President Museveni's Hat at #Mindspeak Africa |
The Verbatim Transcript Museveni Mindspeak Socio-economic
transformation and Regional Political Integration #Mindspeak
http://bit.ly/jMb1cO
It was apparently written entirely by HE. I remember saying Start from
the Beginning and so it does.
->Snippets
Mao Tse Tung called these Comprador Bourgeouisie
For Social Economic Transformation to take Place There are certain
Stimuli that are needed
The First One is Technological Innovation
Gun Powder Genghis Khan Europe 850 AD Made Europeans the Masters of
the Human Race
The Other Stimuli is Infrastructure
KWH per Capita -
Uganda KWH per capita will be 500 in 2016
Uganda Uranium - People came to me and said they wanted to export our
Uranium. I said Uganda will never export its Uramnium whilst we are in
Darkness
Private Sector Led Growth is another Stimuli
Developed Human Resource is another
The Bible St Luke's Gospel 10: 30-37 Who is My Neighbiour?
We can only negotiate as 130m East Africans
None of the Africans has a Space Programme
It is the Old Problem of the GunPowder all over again
One Important Question all Africans need to answer
What is More important the Human Resource or the Natural Resource?
Katanga 1961
Mosie Tshombe
Uganda may end up with 10b Barrels of Oil
In fact Karamijong and Pokot are now using Mobile Phones to steal Cattle
Sectarianism is Pseudo Ideology
Uganda will be a Middle Income Country by 2016
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +15.08% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND
Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.0098
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8913
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +6.67% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +35.46% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +69.71% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
Zambia's Ministry of Finance is raising a new $250 million syndicated
loan as more African countries, including Tanzania, turn to the loan
market for financing, bankers said on Wednesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/02/zambia-loans-idUSL6N0HS38Y20131002
The new $250 million loan is Zambia's first syndicated facility since
1984, one of the bankers said.
Tanzania has also sent out a request for a loan of between $200
million-$700 million, the bankers said.
"The Government of Kenya opened the floodgates last year with its
loan. Now there are a number of discussions going on with African
countries including Tanzania," the second banker said.
A Boom for Whom? Mozambique’s Natural Gas and the New Development Opportunity
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en&id=170032
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Safaricom sets another All Time High and is +73.267% in 2013 share data Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 0.05/-
Closing Price: 8.75
Total Shares Issued: 40000000000.00
Market Capitalization: 350,000,000,000
EPS: 0.44
PE: 19.886
FY 2013 Earnings through 31st March 2013 versus FY through March 2012
FY Revenue 124.287856b versus 106.995529b +16.2%
FY Gross Profit 67.743420b versus 52.856310b +28.2%
FY Operating Expenses [40.643226b] versus [32.704953b] +24.3%
FY PBT 25.450565b versus 17.369400b +46.5%
FY PAT 17.539810b versus 12.627607b +38.9%
FY EPS 0.44 versus 0.32 +37.5%
FY Dividend 0.31 cents a share +40.9%
Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Period
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The Nairobi Mall Attack: Who is the “White Widow”? Why is She being Targeted? Kenyan Economy |
She has so far survived a reported shoot-to-kill manhunt, with “some
of the toughest and most resourceful members of the special forces and
intelligence community looking for her”, including Scotland Yard, the
CIA, and Kenyan police with South African detectives leading the hunt.
Dozens of MI5 and MI6 officers have been in Kenya trying to track down
British jihadists: Lewthwaite and those around her. Jacob Ondari, the
deputy public prosecutor in Mombasa, was quoted in July 2012 that:
“The police will shoot her if they find her and she tries to run.”
“Too bad if she gets shot dead.”
It is apparent that Lewthwaite’s survival has become so threatening to
a western power that they are using all of the intelligence and media
sources at their disposal to ensure that whatever story she has to
tell will not be heard.
Conclusions
There is a School of thought that Mr. Lindsay was a Patsy and You see
in that case that might well inform her State of Mind.
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Samantha Lewthwaite, pictured in a selfie from a personal computer found by police at the house she was renting in Mombasa Kenyan Economy |
Reflections on #Westgate, #Samanthalewthwaite The White Widow The
@NSEKenya and The Shilling
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php?dt=MjAxMy05LTMw
Now lets jump to #Westgate. As I scanned the
Al-Shabaab Tweets I recalled this one that @GGoodwin retweeted
“Westgate: 14hr standoff relayed in 1400 rounds of bullets & 140
characters of vengeance & still ongoing. Gd morning Kenya!”
Another read ''Here are 2 of the Mujahideen inside #Westgate mall,
unruffled and strolling around the mall in such sangfroid manner.''
I kept thinking to myself 'sangfroid' is such an unusual word. It
means coolness of mind; calmness; composure a kind of cold bloodedness
under Pressure. I kept thinking to myself that Sangfroid is a Quality
highly prized in the Military. Thats a word the Daughter of a Military
Man might know. Nishet tells me, I think this is a Woman. And I said
Thats exactly it. Another Tweet says ''I am Titanium.'' referencing a
David Guetta Song, whose lyrics read and are practically a Taunt
David Guetta - Titanium ft. Sia YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRfuAukYTKg
The Lyrics
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/davidguetta/titanium.html
[Sia:]
You shouted out
But I can't hear a word you say
I'm talking loud not saying much
I'm criticized but all your bullets ricochet
You shoot me down, but I get up
[Chorus:]
I'm bulletproof, nothing to lose
Fire away, fire away
Ricochet, you take your aim
Fire away, fire away
You shoot me down but I won't fall
I am titanium
You shoot me down but I won't fall
I am titanium
[Sia:]
Cut me down
But it's you who'll have further to fall
Ghost town and haunted love
Raise your voice, sticks and stones may break my bones
I'm talking loud not saying much
And therefore, I am putting Samantha Lewthwaite at the Scene and I
think she live tweeted from inside #Westgate for an as yet
undetermined Period. And I think she signalled her Presence and is
probably seeking some kind of recognition. Finally, there is a Tweet
I recall about taking a walk. And I remember when my Phone was stolen
at Westlands roundabout, The Thief ran into a Tunnel. I think She was
in there, she live tweeted from inside and then she escaped through a
Tunnel.
The #Westgate Mall
http://www.twitpic.com/deneco
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php
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N.S.E Today |
The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.4665% to close at 129.20 and this is a
Fresh 2013 and Multi Year High.
The Nairobi All Share retreated 0.36% during the 2 sessions
immediately after the Westgate Attack.
Subsequently the All Share has rallied +4.0173% since the 24th of
September in an extraordinary and even counterintuitive Bull Move to a
5+ Year high.
The Nairobi All Share is +36.2007% in 2013.
The Nairobi NSE20 improved 7.69 points to close at 4838.07.
The Nairobi NSE20 is +17.057% in 2013.
Interestingly, the Sharp Rally was triggered by International
Investors who swooped in looking for lines of Stock particularly in
the Big Cap Counters.
Safaricom which is +76.23% this Year set a Fresh All Time Closing High
and traded shares at 9.00, which is the highest Price Print ever.
Kenya Airways which sliced through key resistance at 10.00 and is
+10.88% since Sep 27th eased just 0.935% and I have a Price Target of
15.00.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange and rallied 1.71% to set another All Time Closing High of
8.90 in what has been a Sequence of All Time Highs in 2013. Safaricom
traded 16.366m shares worth 145.729m. Safaricom is now +76.23% in 2013
and traded shares at an All Time High Print of 9.00 +3.44% during the
session. I expect a 10.00 Print this Year.
Uchumi firmed 0.25% to close at 20.00 and traded heavy volume of 5.52m
shares [making that a cumulative Total of 11.99m shares and that
represents 4.517% of its shares and is noteworthy and material] worth
110.408m. Uchumi trades on a Trailing PE of 14.814 [and as such looks
cheap versus its SSA Peers] and Foreign Investors have ratcheted their
Position higher. Overhanging Supply below 20.00 has been extinguished.
Uchumi heads to 25.00 and probably ahead of the Rights Issue.
Kenya Airways eased 0.935% to close at 10.60 and traded 1.425m shares.
This is after a +10.88% Rally September 27th through this morning. The
Break through 10.00 which had capped the Price since the middle of
June is an important and bullish Chart Development. 10.00 now becomes
Price Support and given that Kenya Airways is exiting a long
entrenched Price Equilibrium, I can foresee a dynamic Bull Move to
15.00. The Shallowness of todays correction confirms the Bona fides of
the expected Price extension higher.
Nation Media rallied 2.8125% to close at 329.00 and traded 220,200
shares worth 72.575m. Nation Media has rallied +6.47% over the last 2
sessions. Nation Media trades on a Trailing PE of 20.69 and
accelerated H1 2013 Profit After Tax +23.989%.
Standard Group eased 2.803% to close at 26.00 on just 10,000 shares.
Scangroup traded 990,800 shares all at 60.00 and unchanged. There has
been good sized clips trading at these levels, which represents a
30.11% discount and in my view it is an egregious discount to the Cash
Price of 85.85 that WPP's Cavendish Holding is set to pay for more
than 20m shares as Part of the Deal which will take Cavendish into a
Majority position.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 46.50 [The Weighted Average
was 46.71 and is signalling a Bias higher] which is a record high. KCB
has closed at this level since the 25th of September. Kenya Commercial
Bank traded 1.058m shares and is +56.30% in 2013.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 33.75 and traded 720,600 shares.
CFC Bank ticked +1.38% higher to close at 73.50 and was trading at
75.00 +3.45% session highs at the Finale.
Kenya Re-Insurance firmed 0.34% to close at 14.95 and traded 1.614m
shares. Kenya Re has bounced +2.74% over the last 2 Trading Sessions
and trades on an inexpensive Trailing PE Ratio of 3.7375.
BRITAM firmed +1.818% to close at 8.40 and traded 955,900 shares.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
EABL was the 2nd most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange
and closed unchanged at 339.00 on volume of 372,500 shares worth
126.475m. EABL has rallied +19.366% since the 1st of September.
Charles Ireland the Group MD and CEO has been on the Front Foot of
late in making the Bull Case. EABL is +27.92% this Year and that is
more than twice the return that its Parent Diageo [+11.041% in 2013]
has delivered this Year.
Eveready rallied +5.77% to close at 2.75 and traded 85,900 shares.
Total Kenya firmed 2.419% to close at 19.00 and was trading session
highs of 19.50 +4.84% at the Finish Line. Total Kenya traded 22,600
shares and There was Buy Side Demand for 500% more shares than were
traded during the Session signalling an imminent hurdling of 20.00.
KenolKobil firmed 0.625% to close at 8.05 and traded 416,400 shares.
Bamburi Cement traded 284,300 shares worth 60.84m and all at an
unchanged 214.00.
ARM firmed 0.69% to close at 73.00 on light trading of 20,400 shares.
Portland closed unchanged at 60.00 and traded 1,100 shares. |
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