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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 30th of October 2013
 
Morning
Africa

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Hussein @BarackObama and @HassanRouhani The Rapprochement
Africa


The recent rapprochement between President Barack Obama and Iran's
Hassan Rouhani has certainly snapped a losing sequence in US-Iran
relations that goes all the way back to the Iranian revolution in 1979
when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of
Iran.

The Shah was the second and last monarch of the House of Pahlavi and
otherwise known as the peacock throne. Hussein [Barack Hussein Obama]
and Hassan [Rouhani] share the same name as did Prophet Muhammed's
revered grandsons. Those who pursue the study of anthroponymy
[personal names] especially in the Islamic World probably view this as
very fortuitious.

I was wandering around the Hirshhorn Gallery in Washington last year
and I came across this from the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei:

@Aiww What's in a Name?
http://www.twitpic.com/badw1n

What's in a name? A name is the first and final marker of individual
rights, one fixed part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the
most basic characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or
how rich, all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good
wishes, the expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

I would like to wish my Dearest Wife @Nishet a very Happy Birthday and
a big Thank You.

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“Ahead of the FOMC, people might be a bit more prudent and reducing risk positions,” Sebastien Galy, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in New York, said in a phone interview.
International Trade


The Federal Reserve will pare its $85 billion in monthly bond buying
at its March meeting, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts on
Oct. 17-18

Conclusions

The Fed will do nothing until next year and the Dollar Index will
trade towards 78.60 through Year End.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3742
Dollar Index 79.62
Japan Yen 98.22 The dollar rose for a third day against the yen
Swiss Franc 0.8998
Pound 1.6051
Aussie 0.9495
India Rupee 61.43
South Korea Won 1060.10
Brazil Real 2.1850
Egypt Pound 6.8917
South Africa Rand 9.8801 South Africa’s rand fell against the dollar
for a third day

The greenback lost 0.5 percent over the past month in a basket of 10
developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted
Indexes. The yen fell 0.4 percent, while the euro gained 1.3 percent.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.62
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Bloomberg’s dollar gauge, which monitors the greenback against 10
other major currencies, advanced 0.4 percent to 1,006.12 and reached
1,066.22, the highest since Oct. 17. The index dropped on Oct. 23 to
997.94, the least since February.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 98.22
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3742
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1344.99
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.5 percent to settle at
$1,345.50 an ounce at 1:36 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Yesterday,
the price reached $1,361.80, the highest for a most-active contract
since Sept. 20.

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 97.75 [10% 2 month retreat all about
the Thawing of previously Frozen US Iran relations]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.Z13.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI for December delivery declined as much as 80 cents to $97.40 a
barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It
was at $97.72 at 2:30 p.m. Singapore time. The contract decreased 0.5
percent to $98.20 yesterday. The volume of all futures traded was
about 17 percent more than the 100-day average. Prices are down 4.5
percent in October, after losing 4.9 percent last month.

Zaha Hadid's 'concept superyacht'. Photograph: Blohm and Voss/Rex
http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/architecture-design-blog/2013/oct/29/superyachts-architects-design-zaha-hadid-norman-foster

'Storm-damage chic.' Photograph: Blohm and Voss/Rex
http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/architecture-design-blog/2013/oct/29/superyachts-architects-design-zaha-hadid-norman-foster

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Mozambique Military Clash With Renamo Said Kill 58 Bloomberg
Africa


Fighting between Mozambique’s army and militia loyal to the opposition
Mozambique National Resistance Army, or Renamo, has led to 58 deaths,
a military official said.

The clash at Maringue in central Mozambique resulted in the deaths of
17 soldiers and 41 members of the militia, the official said, asking
not to be named because the death toll hasn’t been released. The
government wasn’t aware of any casualties, Manuel Mazuze, deputy
national director for defense policy, said at an earlier press
conference in Maputo, the capital, yesterday.

“I confirm there were clashes today but no victims to report, at least
on our side,” he said.

Renamo, once backed by the white-minority governments of Rhodesia,
which is now Zimbabwe, and South Africa, fought a 17-year civil war
against the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique, or Frelimo, until
signing a peace agreement inRome in 1992. It has served as the main
opposition party for two decades. The clashes are the worst since the
signing of the peace agreement.

The army attacked Renamo’s main base on Oct. 21 after a series of
attacks on public transport and a government arms depot this year led
to the temporary closure of rail lines used by Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) and
Vale SA (VALE5) to export coal. Renamo said the 1992 peace agreement
was over following the attack on its base.

“We will no longer show off numbers as in no case does it make us
proud,” Fernando Mazanga, a spokesman for Renamo, said when asked
about the casualties. He confirmed the clashes.

Mozambican government soldiers patrol an area in Gorongosa,
Mozambique, on Oct. 17, 2013. Photographer: Maria Celeste Mac'
Arthur/AFP/Getty Images

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/mozambique-military-clash-with-renamo-said-kill-58.html

Sunset over Mozambique's Gorongosa National Park
http://www.globalpost.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/gp3_small_article/photos/12/Mozambique_03_06_09_Barbee_Gorongosa_RedSkyStill_edit.png

Gorongosa National Park
http://www.fredhoogervorst.com/oni.app/local/upload/39779ddb.jpg

Gorongosa National Park looks a little like Amboseli

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Grand Inga Dam project. President Zuma and his DRC counterpart Joseph Kabila are expected to sign a treaty to renew the project that has the potential to power half of Africa.
Africa


Nkoane-Mashabane says, "We encourage that talks (in Kampala) need to
be restarted, a political solutions needs to be found. We believe that
with the initiatives we engaged in, we need peace, security and
development. We need to look at main source of conflict, so that there
are developmental issues we need to engage people in that belt."

Nkoana-Mashabane is part of a delegation accompanying President Jacob
Zuma on a two-day state visit to the DRC.

Conclusions

President Zuma might well have played a Role and on the side of
President Kabila. FLICKR

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8494/8260783016_4b91c07a9d.jpg

Six dead in DR Congo munitions depot attack AFP
http://news.yahoo.com/dr-congo-troops-attackers-clash-ammunition-dump-102100393.html

Lubumbashi (DR Congo) (AFP) - Six people were killed Tuesday in
clashes between military police and a group of separatist attackers at
a munitions depot in the southwestern DR Congo city of Lubumbashi,
officials said.

"There were six deaths, three attackers and three soldiers," said the
mayor of DR Congo's second largest city, Jean-Oscar Sanguza.

The attack was led by "separatists from the Bakata-Katanga", a group
fighting for the independence of Katanga province, according to an
intelligence source.

Five members of the rebel group had been arrested by late afternoon on
Tuesday, Sanguza said, with parts of the city shut off in an attempt
to catch fugitives.

A military source said the group also attacked the residence of a
military police commander.

Conclusions

The Worry in kinshasa might be that a decisive Win in Eastern DRC sees
the Rebellion mutate and re appear elsewhere. Kinshasa will surely not
be able to fight on 2 Fronts.

Kony 2013: U.S. quietly intensifies effort to help African troops
capture infamous warlord WAPO

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kony-2013-us-quietly-intensifies-effort-to-help-african-troops-capture-infamous-warlord/2013/10/28/74db9720-3cb3-11e3-b6a9-da62c264f40e_story.html

NEAR GARAMBA NATIONAL PARK, Congo — For 15 hours, a team of U.S.
Special Forces soldiers shepherded four dozen South Sudanese commandos
through an unremitting nighttime rainstorm, plunging into elephant
grass so tall and thick they could not gaze beyond the reach of their
arms. They heard the telltale cry of a panther and the ripples of
crocodiles lurking in the bogs. Quicksand sucked a few men down to
their waists before their comrades could haul them out.

Their destination was a crude encampment used by the Lord’s Resistance
Army, a band of rebels led by the messianic warlord Joseph Kony, who
has spent years kidnapping and killing villagers — and eluding his
pursuers — across a wide swath of central Africa. By the time the
troops reached the camp, as beams of morning light pierced the treetop
canopy, the rebels had absconded again. The soldiers gave chase for a
day, summoning tracking dogs and an infrared-equipped drone, but their
quarry melted into the dense Congolese jungle.

The September raid did capture, almost perfectly, the state of the
under-the-radar U.S. campaign to help hunt down Kony and his top
lieutenants. After two years advising and assisting local troops in
four African nations, American forces have significantly expanded
their activities — but Kony is still not in handcuffs or a casket.

The assault on the camp last month was the first time U.S. Special
Operations advisers had provided in-the-field support to African
forces searching for Kony’s rebels in Congo. To the north, in the
lawless Central African Republic, where Kony is thought to be hiding,
U.S. soldiers have intensified support for Ugandan troops seeking his
redoubt. The Americans also have increased training of South Sudanese
and Congolese units participating in the hunt.

Senior U.S. officials say the Pentagon has asked the White House for
permission to further widen the mission by temporarily basing
sophisticated Air Force CV-22 Osprey aircraft in Uganda, allowing
American and African troops to move across a broader area and more
quickly assault Kony’s camps. Personnel to operate the Ospreys, which
can land like helicopters but fly like planes, would nearly double the
number of U.S. troops based in Uganda.

“We’re at a new stage in this mission,” said Col. Kevin Leahy, who
commands the 100 Special Operations troops pursuing the Lord’s
Resistance Army. “All of the pieces are coming together, and we’re
pushing on all fronts.”

Kony is a tenacious adversary. His fighters, some of whom were
conscripted as children, are divided among several semiautonomous
cells spread across an area the size of Texas. They remain
peripatetic, bedding down in camps nestled deep in the jungle, under
foliage that shields them from cameras on American drones and
satellites. They eschew two-way radios — their signals can be tracked
— and attacks on villages large enough to quickly summon help.

Conclusions

US has such a decisive and embedded 'Full Spectrum' military lever
across the continent  01-JUL-2013 @BarackObama Comes to Africa

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0107.pdf

The President has been very hard edged in deploying US hard power. The
two architects of the R2P doctrine, which was deployed with effect to
topple Muammar Gaddafi, Susan Rice and Samantha Power are key players
in the second administration and have the President's ear. My point is
that the US has established a gatekeeper position via its military
insertion in Africa.

I think the #STOPKONY and #KONY2012 Campaign was an outstanding c21st
example of Engineering Consent not for the Search for Kony but for
legitimising Intervention by the US and/or its Allies.

#KONY2012 #STOPKONY and the Engineering of Consent

http://592f46.medialib.glogster.com/media/9dc110f05af1cb12e4221749f7869377746a017bb09aba44386553bcfe6ad1b2/stop-kony.jpg

Zambia Considering $1 Billion Eurobond After Rating Cut
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-29/zambia-considering-1-billion-eurobond-after-rating-cut.html

Zambia, Africa’s biggest copper producer, is considering offering $1
billion in Eurobonds to fund next year’s budget even after Fitch
Ratings cut the country’s rating because of spending on wages and
subsidies.

“It is one of the avenues available,” Treasury Secretary Fredson Yamba
said by phone from Lusaka, the capital, today. “We are looking at
various options. We have to go out there and see which is the cheapest
source.”

Fitch lowered Zambia to B, five levels below investment grade, from
B+, according to a report yesterday. The outlook was stable, it said.
Standard & Poor’s cut its outlook on Zambia to negative on Oct. 25,
affirming its B+ rating for long-term debt.

The country plans to end the year with a budget deficit less than the
8.5 percent of gross domestic product Finance Minister Alexander
Chikwanda forecast in his Oct. 11 budget speech, Yamba said.

Yields on Zambia’s $750 million debut Eurobond due September 2022 were
little changed from yesterday at 6.72 percent as of 8:12 a.m in
London.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +19.22% 2013 [All Time Record High]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 9.8815
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 9.8815
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +14.24% 2013 [above 6,000 since 20th October
previously above 6,000 26th January 2011]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +37.83% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +76.45% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

But managing expectations – investors’, governments’ and those of the
local people – will be difficult.

http://www.petroleum-economist.com/Article/3271185/Policy-and-Politics/Lands-of-promise.html

Uganda, Mozambique and Tanzania will all become major producers of oil
or gas; but the income from big projects will not be felt in their
economies for some time, because investors will first recover their
costs. That fact hasn’t stopped politicians promising their people the
earth. Tanzania’s energy and mines minister, for example, says gas
supplies in his country can “banish poverty”. It will not happen as
quickly as some people think.

Sudanese authorities arrested seven university professors, a human
rights lawyer said on Tuesday

http://news.yahoo.com/sudan-arrests-seven-university-professors-crackdown-protests-174106896.html

Khartoum remains a Pressure Cooker
http://media.salon.com/2013/09/correction-mideast-sudan.jpeg-1280x960.jpg

read more


Kenya Electricity KENGEN reports FY PAT 2013 +86.038% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           17.05
Total Shares Issued:          2198361344.00
Market Capitalization:        37,482,060,915
EPS:             2.39
PE:                7.1338

FY Earnings through 30th June 2013 versus FY Earnings through June 2012
FY Electricity Revenue 16.451b versus 15.872b +3.6479%
FY Operating Expenses [10.575b] versus [10.266b]
FY Gross Profit 5.876b versus 5.606b
FY Interest Income 676m versus 952m
FY Other Income 595m versus 612m
FY Operating Profit 7.094b versus 7.017b +1.0973%
FY Finance Costs [3.001b] versus [2.972b]
FY Profit Before Tax 4.093b versus 4.045b
FY Tax Income [Expense] 1.157b versus [1.223b]
FY PAT 5.250b versus 2.822b +86.038%
FY Earnings Per Share 2.39 versus 1.28 +86.71%
Final Dividend 60 cents unchanged

Conclusions

Strong Results assisted by a Tax Credit of 1.157b versus a Tax Charge
of [1.223b] in the previous FY.
FY PBT marginally higher but FY PAT +86.038%.

KenGen Geothermal Road Map Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/8q21yj

Kenya police hold five over Westgate massacre
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/kenya-police-hold-five-over-westgate-massacre_886746.html

Nairobi: Kenyan police are holding five people over last month's
attack on Nairobi's Westgate mall, a top officer said on Tuesday,
adding they hoped to charge them soon.

Ndegwa Muhoro, head of Kenya's Police Criminal Investigation
Department, told reporters that investigations were still ongoing into
exchanges of mobile telephone text messages in the days prior to the
four-day siege that began on September 21.

"We wanted to arraign five of the terrorists in court yesterday, but
we have decided to first investigate an SMS exchange of the terrorists
which occurred on September 17," he said.

"There are various issues which need thorough investigation, we cannot
rush to court."

However, all gunmen -- totalling just four, not the dozen that
security forces had initially reported -- are understood to have died
during the attack.

"Interpol is also assisting us in the investigations, including the
analysis of four bodies suspected to be of the terrorists," Muhoro
said.

A Dutch-based venture capital firm has raised its stake in a Kenyan
restaurant guide website, EatOut, in a transaction that values the
online portal at Sh220 million.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Dutch-fund-buyout-deal-values-Kenyan-website-at-Sh220m/-/539552/2052446/-/kyta6k/-/index.html

The buyout of a further 7.9 per cent stake at a cost of Sh17 million
($200,000) will see Africa Media Venture (AMVF) raise its ownership in
the Kenyan firm from 25 per cent to 32.9 per cent.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 85.101
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +37.8136% 2013 [2.1482% below a Record
Closing High of 133.60 set 8th October]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +19.5335% 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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