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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 01st of November 2013

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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#Mindspeak 2013 @IMFNews @DReynders @Habilolaka @PatriciaIthau1 @JohnGithongo @MaggieIreri RICH TV

We will have uploaded the #Mindspeak Mining Oil and Gas and Voluntary
Principles today

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Rich Interviews RICH TV

Charlie Robertson @Rencapman
Prof.Njuguna Ndung'u Governor, Central Bank of Kenya
Ayisi Makatiani-Managing Partner-Fanisi Capital
KQ C.E.O Dr. Titus Naikuni
Safaricom CEO @BobCollymore
@KCBGroup CEO @JoshuaOigara

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

The Year has gone so fast

The Teenagers have given me express instructions to make sure we are
in the Vicinity of Diani Beach on the 31st of December.

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The Palm Trees and The Beach Diani Kenya 430 days ago

I said That's Fine as long as we can potter around the Tsavo for a
couple of days on our way down.

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#Tsavo West The Road to the Chyulu Hills #Kenya

What I like about the Tsavo are the distances, the vast spaces and the
Fact that every experience is personal because typically there is no
one else around.

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The Ghost And The Darkness Trailer [An outstanding Movie]

The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock T.S Eliot

And indeed there will be time
To wonder, “Do I dare?” and, “Do I dare?”
Time to turn back and descend the stair,
With a bald spot in the middle of my hair—        40
(They will say: “How his hair is growing thin!”)
My morning coat, my collar mounting firmly to the chin,
My necktie rich and modest, but asserted by a simple pin—
(They will say: “But how his arms and legs are thin!”)
Do I dare        45
Disturb the universe?

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Law & Politics

(“Regardless of how it is done, make sure you always have your
internet’s switch at the tip of your fingers.”)

Social media in particular poses a problem for restrictive regimes,
judging by their responses to it

As the journalist Joel Brinkley wrote, ” China spends more money on
internal security—including a massive online censorship office—than it
does on its military.

The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdo─čan, recently said that
“this thing called social media is a curse on societies.”

Israeli warplanes struck a military base near the Syrian port city of
Latakia this week, an Obama administration official told CNN Thursday



Israel is making the point that they have complete Operational Freedom
over Syrian Skies.

US security official says attack occurred in port city of Latakia and
that target was Russian-made SA-125 missiles


Beijing police said on Wednesday that Usmen Hasan -- in an SUV
carrying his mother and wife, jihadist banners and machetes -- sped
onto the pavement, crashed in front of a giant portrait of Mao Zedong
and set the car alight.


Alim Seytoff, a US-based spokesman for the overseas World Uyghur
Congress (WUC), called the official narrative of the Tiananmen event
full of holes and discriminatory.

"The Chinese claim is in a way very unbelievable, to some extent
outrageous," he told AFP.

"The only reason this is labelled as a terrorist incident is because
the passengers happened to be Uighurs."

Seytoff questioned why an attacker would kill his own family, and how
religious material could survive in a car engulfed in flames.

"Why would he bring his mother and his wife?" Seytoff said.

"The car was burned almost to the ground, the three people were burned
to death, and the flag wasn't burned -- in the car?"

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World Uyghur Congress
Law & Politics


Xinjiang has the Potential to be China's Afghanistan. It is a weak
Link in the Chinese Chain. And that explains the alignment between the
US and the WUC.


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Tianamen Square Incident
Law & Politics

Given that I believe @BarackObama 's Pivot to Asia is all about the
Encirclement, containment and then a shrinking of China's Operating
Theatre best exemplified by

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@Aiww 's The Snake Installation at the @Hirshhorn
Law & Politics

Then I think The Pivot to Asia works with Xinjiang.

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Of Course, Japan's @AbeShinzo remains the Pivot's Point Man in my opinion.
Law & Politics

Japan set to hold massive military drill @AJEnglish

Japan is set to hold one of its biggest military drills on Friday,
when 18,000 troops will participate in island-landing exercises in
Okinawa prefecture.

The drill is being seen as a clear message to neighbouring China.

Japan denied disrupting recent Chinese military exercises in the west
Pacific Ocean that prompted an official protest


“It is not true that we carried out dangerous actions that interfered
with the Chinese Navy’s exercises,” Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary
Katsunobu Kato told reporters in Tokyo today, adding that Japan had
lodged a counter-protest with China. “We are paying close attention to
the movements of the Chinese armed forces, including those of Chinese
military vessels in seas around Japan,” Kato said.

The Japanese training will include an amphibious landing on the
uninhabited atoll of Okidaitojima, 400 kilometers (250 miles)
southeast of Okinawa. A helicopter carrier will take part in the
exercise, along with 34,000 personnel, according to a defense forces
official who declined to give his name in line with military policy.

Governor John Connally, Nellie Connally, President John F.
Kennedy, and Jacqueline Kennedy in Presidential limousine, Dallas.
Unidentified photographer, November 22, 1963. Photo Booth


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3552 The euro declined to the lowest level in two weeks against
the dollar
Dollar Index 80.32
Japan Yen 97.93
Swiss Franc 0.9078
Pound 1.6030
Aussie 0.9474
India Rupee 61.82
South Korea Won 1061.90
Brazil Real 2.2348
Egypt Pound 6.8883
South Africa Rand 10.0487

Chinese manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 18 months.

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.4 in October, the
highest since April 2012 and up from 51.1 in September, National
Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
said in Beijing today.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.32

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3552 [The annual rate fell
to 0.7 percent, the lowest since November 2009, from 1.1 percent in
September, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said
in a preliminary estimate today]


“The euro is being sold as weaker inflation data suddenly put an ECB
rate cut back on the table,” said Etsuko Yamashita


The euro slid 0.2 percent to $1.3555 at 2:46 p.m. in Tokyo after
reaching $1.3540, the weakest since Oct. 17. Yesterday it dropped 1.11
percent, the most since June 2012.

The euro area’s annual consumer-price index declined to 0.7 percent
last month, the least since November 2009, from 1.1 percent in
September, the European Union’s statistics office said yesterday.
Euro-area unemployment stood at a record 12.2 percent in September,
separate data showed.

The ECB has said there’s a “subdued outlook” for price growth in the
region, and the October data mark the ninth month the rate has been
less than its 2 percent ceiling. Policy makers next meet on Nov. 7.

The ECB will cut its refinancing rate to 0.25 percent from 0.5 percent
in December, according to forecasts published yesterday in a client
note by Greg Fuzesi, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London.
The weaker-than-forecast CPI numbers raise “very big” questions about
the outlook for inflation and the ECB’s response, Fuzesi said.

Two duplex apartments at the One57 condo tower have sold for more than
$90 million each -- a staggering number even in Manhattan’s super-luxe


One57, just steps from New York’s Carnegie Hall, is not only crazy
expensive, it’s super-tall for a residential building.

A computer rendering of 432 Park, a 1,400-foot-high condominium
under construction in Midtown Manhattan, looking northwest toward
Central Park.


A computer rendering of a bathroom designed by Deborah Berke for
the 432 Park condominium tower. The 10-foot square windows contain
glass in the largest dimensions available today to take advantage of
panoramic views.


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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1324.81

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 96.38 [4 Month Lows]

WTI for December delivery was at $96.48 a barrel in electronic trading
on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 10 cents, at 1:52 p.m.
Singapore time. The contract fell 0.4 percent to $96.38 yesterday, the
lowest since June 26.

Since trading just below $110.00 at the end of August, the price of
WTI [West Texas Intermediate] has retreated more than 10% to trade at
97.85 [now 96.38]  last 28-OCT-2013


That retreat in the price is entirely correlated to a reduction in the
‘geopolitical’ premium as the two Presidents thawed previously frozen
relations. In fact, if the US and Iran were able to cut through the
noise and to the chase, WTI could trade as low as $75.00.

THE recent rapprochement between President Barack Obama and Iran’s
Hassan Rouhani has certainly snapped a losing sequence in US-Iran
rela- tions that goes all the way back to the Iranian revolution in
1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah
of Iran.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Congo army says hunting rebels deep into mountain bases [This is an unexpectedly decisive Military Outcome]

Congo's army said on Thursday it was hunting rebels deep into forests
and mountains along the border with Rwanda and Uganda, the last
insurgent hideouts after they were driven from towns they held during
a 20-month rebellion.

Ugandan mediators said talks had restarted on Wednesday in Kampala
between the government and M23 rebels, but Kinshasa's U.N.-backed army
appears on the verge of defeating the most serious uprising to plague
the mineral-rich east since the end of the last major war a decade

"We are going to pursue M23 and push them into a corner, wherever they
hide, because they are criminals," Congo army spokesman Colonel
Olivier Hamuli told Reuters.

"We must not leave them time (to reorganize) because they have
martyred the Congolese people for too long. Now is the time to bring
peace," Hamuli said.

M23 officials said they withdrew from towns under diplomatic pressure.
Bertrand Bissimwa, M23's political leader, told French radio RFI that
the military losses would not alter their demands in talks.

Clashes were reported in the hills above Bunagana, the last
rebel-controlled town to fall this week, and around Runyoni, a hill
that was the birthplace of the rebellion last year.

At their peak last November, M23 occupied the regional capital, Goma,
after the army fled and rebels marched past peacekeepers. This defeat
led to the U.N. force and mandate being bolstered, an overhaul of
Congo's army command and pressure on rebel support, changing the tide
of the fighting.

While the deep roots of conflict - ranging from the presence of
Rwandan Hutu rebels, ethnic tensions and simmering conflicts over land
and minerals - remain, the pace of the advance of Congo's army is

"The M23 may be nearing its end," Jason Stearns, a Congo expert, wrote
on his blog, Congo Siasa. "This would be historic - it would be the
first time the Congolese government had defeated a major rebellion."

"And it would be the first time since 1996 that an armed group allied
to Rwanda is not present in the eastern Congo."

Regional Economic Outlook:  Sub-Saharan Africa Keeping the Pace @IMFNews


Global headwinds have moderately lowered sub-Saharan Africa’s growth
in 2013, but the pace is expected to pick up in 2014. Strong
investment demand continues to support growth in most of the region.
Output is projected to expand by 5 percent in 2013 and 6 percent in

Most of the major risks to the outlook for the region stem from
external factors. Further weakening in emerging market
economies—including some of sub-Saharan Africa’s new economic
partners—or in advanced economies could affect sub-Saharan Africa’s
prospects for growth, including through commodity price declines.

The analysis finds that in the past three years, foreign portfolio
flows to sub-Saharan Africa’s frontier economies have grown
considerably, and the current bout of global financial market
turbulence has so far left most of these countries relatively

Growth is expected to be particularly strong in mineral-exporting and
low-income countries, including Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, Mozambique, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and a few others.

In South Africa, the region’s largest economy, real growth in 2013 is
projected at 2 percent, well below the regional average.

For the top five resource-rich sub-Saharan African countries ranked by
exports to China as a share of GDP—Angola, South Africa, the Republic
of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo—

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +19.42% 2013

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.0509

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8889

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg 6,181.86 +15.87% 2013

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +38.23% 2013

Revenue earned by Nigeria this year may be as much as $12 billion
short of budget estimates as theft of crude and output disruptions
persist in the oil-rich Niger River delta, the Finance Ministry said.


With a 2013 budget based on a daily output of 2.53 million barrels and
an oil price of $79 a barrel, Africa’s biggest oil producer expected
revenue of almost $80 billion from exports. In the first half of the
year, oil receipts amounted to $28.2 billion, more than $7 billion
below the estimate, according to central bank figures.

“What is amazing now is that we’ve had this quantity of shock and we
were able to weather it,” Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in
an interview late yesterday in Abuja, the capital. “You can say theft,
but it’s still a quantity shock.”

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country of more than 160 million
people, depends on crude exports for about 80 percent of government
revenue and 95 percent of export income. The country saves the balance
of revenue above the budgeted price in a special account, “designed
for these kind of incidents,” according to the minister.

The average price of Nigeria’s light, sweet crude has stayed above
$100 a barrel this year. Criminal gangs tapping oil from pipelines for
illegal sale have posed the biggest threat to output since a
government amnesty in 2009 reduced armed attacks led by rebels
fighting for greater control of the region’s resources.

“When there’s a breakage the impact is that the pipes are shut down,
the effect is that 400,000 barrels are shut down,” Okonjo-Iweala said.
“The actual theft is like 70 to 80,000 barrels a day.”

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +76.84% 2013

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Al-Shabaab 2.0

Interestingly, I think the #Westgate Attackers might well represent an
Al-Shabaab 2.0. The Extraordinary thing is how Al-Shabaab are able to
leverage the new Digital World to such outstanding effect. The
Linguistics around their Tweets speak powerfully to the fact that
Al-Shabaab's Audience is no longer in Mogadishu, its in the Diaspora
Communities in the West in Minneapolis, London et al. The Direction of
their Digital Voice speaks volumes to the Internationalisation of this

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) on Thursday postponed the trial of Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta to February 05, 2014 ZEE
Kenyan Economy

11 OCT 13 ::  Counter Terrorism will be the Catalyst for a
Rapprochement between Uhuru Kenyatta Government and US/UK/EU


African Union says its members will introduce a resolution in the U.N.
Security Council to delay the International Criminal Court trial of
Kenya’s leaders for a year.


Safaricom share price data here +87.128% 2013 and a record Closing High

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           9.45
Total Shares Issued:          40000000000.00
Market Capitalization:        378,000,000,000
EPS:             0.44
PE:                 21.477

FY 2013 Earnings through 31st March 2013 versus FY through March 2012
FY Revenue 124.287856b versus 106.995529b +16.2%
FY Gross Profit 67.743420b versus 52.856310b +28.2%
FY Operating Expenses [40.643226b] versus [32.704953b] +24.3%
FY PBT 25.450565b versus 17.369400b +46.5%
FY PAT 17.539810b versus 12.627607b +38.9%
FY EPS 0.44 versus 0.32 +37.5%
FY Dividend 0.31 cents a share +40.9%
Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Period

Formula 1 @bobcollymore #Safaricom

Kenya Commercial Bank @KCBGroup reports Q3 PBT +15.87% 2013
Earnings here +63.025% 2013


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           48.50
Total Shares Issued:          2950170000.00
Market Capitalization:        143,083,245,000
EPS:             4.11
PE:                 11.800

Q3 2013 Earnings versus Q3 2012
Total Assets 385.209575b versus 371.629287b +3.654%
Loans and Advances Net to Customers 225.688646b versus 208.987845b +7.99%
Q3 PBT 15.168913b versus 13.010394b +15.87%
Q3 PAT 10.816637b versus 9.370620b +15.431%

From @KCBGroup Q3 2013 Investor Briefing


Cost in 2013 includes a one off restructuring cost
CIR including restructuring cost is 55.4% (June 2013-54.6%)
Market share Ratios
Kenya 14%
Tanzania 3%
Uganda 3%
Rwanda 7%
Burundi 0.3%
South Sudan 42%

South Sudan responsible for 9% of PBT Kenya 89.3%

Loans edged up 1% from 58% to 59% as a % of the Balance Sheet.

H1 2013 Earnings through June 2013 versus June 2012
Total Assets 370.911015b versus 349.275693b
H1 Total Operating Income 23.996726b versus 21.900088b
Total and Other Operating Expenses 13.900304b versus 13.396280b
H1 PBT 10.096422b versus 8.503808b +18.728%
H1 PAT 7.192232b versus 6.086014b +18.176%
H1 EPS 2.41 versus 2.05 +17.5609%

Company Commentary

International Business PBT: Up 72% from KShs 0.6Billion to KShs 1.1Billion
Net Interest Income: Up 12% from KShs. 14.3Billion to KShs. 16.1Billion
Fees and Commission: Up 9% from KShs. 4.6Billion to KShs 5.0Billion
Total Operating Expenses: Up 6% from KShs. 11.9Billion to KShs 12.7Billion
Total Assets: Up 6% from KShs. 349Billion to KShs. 371Billion
Net Loans & Advances: up 6% from KShs 202Billion to KShs 214Billion
Customer Deposits: up 3% from KShs 279Billion to KShs 288Billion
Cost to Income Ratio: Lower by 180bps from 56.4% to 54.6%.
Return on Assets: up 30bps from 3.6% to 3.9%
Return on Equity: down 40bps from 26.8% to 26.4%

@KCBGroup Q3 2013 Investor Briefing

Always a Pleasure catching up with CEO @KCBGroup @JoshuaOigara

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 85.37

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +40.45% in 2013

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +20.6871% 2013


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share rallied +0.472% to close at 133.87 and set a
Fresh All Time Closing High.
The Nairobi All Share has rallied +2.401% this week, +7.388% since
Westgate and is +41.123% in 2013.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased 2.91 points to close at 4989.97 but is girding
itself and will hurdle 5,000 convincingly and as soon as next week.
Equity Turnover was 610.248m and caps off a Busy week notwithstanding
that one session was lost this week because of a Systems Outage.
Safaricom set an All Time Closing High for the 2nd consecutive session
and ahead of its H1 Earnings Release as early as next week.
The IMF @IMFNews in its latest Regional Economic Outlook noted  ''The
analysis finds that in the past three years, foreign portfolio flows
to sub-Saharan Africa’s frontier economies have grown considerably''
and in fact the defining characteristic of the SSA Bull Market and its
an SSA wide Phenomena has been exactly as the IMF has described.
The Bull Market experienced from Nigeria +38.23% in 2013, through
Ghana where the Composite Index is +76.84% in 2013 and a whisker off
an all time High, South Africa All Share which is +19.42% and hit
record highs this week and even Egypt is at 26th January 2011 Highs
has been a consequence of increased International Allocation to SSA
This Flow has of course targeted the Large Capitalisation Counters and
given that we are starting from an egregiously underweight position, I
see this Process of Increased Allocation remaining a Rising Tide
through Year end and into 2014. I can foresee these Benchmark Indices
rallying a further 5%-10% through Year End. SSA Equity Markets remain
in a sweet Spot.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom firmed +1.06% to close at 9.55 and set an All Time Closing
High for the second consecutive session. Safaricom traded shares at a
session High of 9.70 +2.645% and that matches the All Time High Price
Print also printed yesterday. Safaricom traded 3.385m shares worth
32.375m. Safaricom is +89.108% in 2013 and will release its H1
Earnings as early as next week. Safaricom is now the largest
Capitalisation Stock at the Nairobi Securities Exchange with a Market
Cap of 388b Kenya shillings. Therefore, Next weeks Earnings Release is
a Flagship headline Event for the Nairobi Securities Exchange. I
expect Safaricom to outperform consensus Market Expectations.

Kenya Airways ticked 0.4784% higher to close at 10.50 and traded
361,700 shares. Kenya Airways rallied +14.48% September 26th through
October 2nd and has plateaud at 10.45 since October 2nd. There has
been Congestion as a Supply Overhang has been cleared. I expect a
sharp Move higher and to 12.00 and imminently. All the Bad News has
been throughly baked into the Price and therefore, I expect a number
of Positive sharp Surprises going forward.

Uchumi improved +1.18% to close at 21.50 and traded 78,100 shares.
Uchumi trades on a Trailing PE of 15.926 and is cheap on that basis
versus its SSA Peers.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 48.50 and traded solid
volume of 1.867m shares worth 90.57m and the day after KCB released
its Q3 2013 Earnings Release. Kenya Commercial Bank reported a +15.87%
Profit Before Tax Acceleration, a +3.654% Expansion in its Total
Assets to 385.2095b and a +7.99% Increase in Net Loan and Advances to
Customers Number. Kenya Commercial Bank also informed us via this
Earnings Release that its Market Share Ratios are Kenya 14%, Tanzania
3%, Uganda 3%, Rwanda 7%, Burundi 0.3% and South Sudan 42%.
Interestingly whilst Kenya remains responsible for 89.3% of the profit
Before Tax, South Sudan is 2nd at 9%. Kenya Commercial Bank trades on
a Trailing PE of 11.88 and has posted a +63.025% Return in 2013. Kenya
Commercial Bank targets 55.00 by early January.

Equity Bank firmed 0.7% to close at 35.75 and traded 993,200 shares
worth 35.513m. Equity Bank is +50.52% in 2013 and trades on a Trailing
PE of 10.966.
Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 18.65 and traded 2.109m shares worth
39.362m. Barclays Bank is +18.412% [ex Dividends] in 2013 and trades
on a Trailing PE of 11.584.
COOP Bank firmed +1.12% to close at 18.05 and traded 1.436m shares.
CFC StanBic Bank firmed +3.205% to close at 80.50 and traded 35,300
shares. CFC StanBic is cheap versus its Peers on a Trailing PE of
8.131 and having accelerated H1 PAT +81.43%.

Centum rallied 6.5066% to close at 32.75 and traded good volume of
1.954m shares worth 64.448m. Centum traded shares at its Daily Limit
33.75 +9.62% for a good deal of the session. Centum has rallied
+23.584% since 1st October. Mr. Chris Kirubi ignited the Price Rally
in part when the CMA announced that Mr. Kirubi was exempt from making
a Takeover Offer and was given permission to increase his Shareholding
5% from 24.99% to 29.99%. This increase would equate to 32.65m shares.
Centum trades on a Trailing PE of 8.687 and reported a +110.01% in FY
Profit After Tax.

Transcentury was high ticked +9.24% to close at 32.50 and traded 500 shares.

BRITAM rallied +2.89% and closed at 10.65 with 179,600 shares changing hands.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL firmed 0.31% to close at 320.00 and was the most actively traded
share at the Securities Exchange with 707,200 shares worth 226.303m
and 37.083% of the Volume traded at the Exchange during todays
session. EABL is +20.75% in 2013. EABL reported  a -27.1298% Decline
in FY Profit Before Tax. Investors increasingly have appreciated a
more expansive Game necessitated a more expansive Balance Sheet and
that FY Earnings were crimped because EABL is seeking to accelerate
the Medium Term Earnings Trajectory.

East African Portland Cement rallied +6.33375% to close at 75.50 and
was trading at session Highs of 78.00 +9.86% at the Finish Line. East
African Portland traded just 5,500 shares and shares are tightly held.
Portland reported strong FY Turnaround Earnings this week, where it
declared a FY Profit After Tax of 1.775383b versus a Loss of 0.972b
previously. Portland is +25.83% since October 1st.

Total Kenya rebounded +4.123% to close at 25.25 and traded 34,500
shares. Total aims at 30.00.

Mumias Sugar eased 1.4285% to close at 3.45 and is testing Key Price Support.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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November 2013

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