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Friday 01st of November 2013 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
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Rich Interviews RICH TV Africa |
Charlie Robertson @Rencapman Prof.Njuguna Ndung'u Governor, Central Bank of Kenya Ayisi Makatiani-Managing Partner-Fanisi Capital KQ C.E.O Dr. Titus Naikuni Safaricom CEO @BobCollymore @KCBGroup CEO @JoshuaOigara
Macro Thoughts
Home Thoughts
The Year has gone so fast
The Teenagers have given me express instructions to make sure we are in the Vicinity of Diani Beach on the 31st of December.
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The Ghost And The Darkness Trailer [An outstanding Movie] Africa |
The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock T.S Eliot http://www.bartleby.com/198/1.html
And indeed there will be time To wonder, “Do I dare?” and, “Do I dare?” Time to turn back and descend the stair, With a bald spot in the middle of my hair— 40 (They will say: “How his hair is growing thin!”) My morning coat, my collar mounting firmly to the chin, My necktie rich and modest, but asserted by a simple pin— (They will say: “But how his arms and legs are thin!”) Do I dare 45 Disturb the universe?
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DICTATORS IN THE AGE OF INSTAGRAM POSTED BY EMILY GREENHOUSE Law & Politics |
(“Regardless of how it is done, make sure you always have your internet’s switch at the tip of your fingers.”)
Social media in particular poses a problem for restrictive regimes, judging by their responses to it
As the journalist Joel Brinkley wrote, ” China spends more money on internal security—including a massive online censorship office—than it does on its military.
The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, recently said that “this thing called social media is a curse on societies.”
Israeli warplanes struck a military base near the Syrian port city of Latakia this week, an Obama administration official told CNN Thursday http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/31/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Conclusions
Israel is making the point that they have complete Operational Freedom over Syrian Skies.
US security official says attack occurred in port city of Latakia and that target was Russian-made SA-125 missiles http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/01/israel-strikes-russian-weapons-syria
Beijing police said on Wednesday that Usmen Hasan -- in an SUV carrying his mother and wife, jihadist banners and machetes -- sped onto the pavement, crashed in front of a giant portrait of Mao Zedong and set the car alight. http://news.yahoo.com/uighurs-biggest-victims-tiananmen-attack-china-media-050047157.html
Alim Seytoff, a US-based spokesman for the overseas World Uyghur Congress (WUC), called the official narrative of the Tiananmen event full of holes and discriminatory.
"The Chinese claim is in a way very unbelievable, to some extent outrageous," he told AFP.
"The only reason this is labelled as a terrorist incident is because the passengers happened to be Uighurs."
Seytoff questioned why an attacker would kill his own family, and how religious material could survive in a car engulfed in flames.
"Why would he bring his mother and his wife?" Seytoff said.
"The car was burned almost to the ground, the three people were burned to death, and the flag wasn't burned -- in the car?"
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Of Course, Japan's @AbeShinzo remains the Pivot's Point Man in my opinion. Law & Politics |
Japan set to hold massive military drill @AJEnglish http://www.aljazeera.com/video/asia-pacific/2013/11/japan-set-hold-massive-military-drill-201311131626306758.html
Japan is set to hold one of its biggest military drills on Friday, when 18,000 troops will participate in island-landing exercises in Okinawa prefecture.
The drill is being seen as a clear message to neighbouring China.
Japan denied disrupting recent Chinese military exercises in the west Pacific Ocean that prompted an official protest http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/china-files-protest-as-japanese-ships-disrupt-military-exercises.html
“It is not true that we carried out dangerous actions that interfered with the Chinese Navy’s exercises,” Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato told reporters in Tokyo today, adding that Japan had lodged a counter-protest with China. “We are paying close attention to the movements of the Chinese armed forces, including those of Chinese military vessels in seas around Japan,” Kato said.
The Japanese training will include an amphibious landing on the uninhabited atoll of Okidaitojima, 400 kilometers (250 miles) southeast of Okinawa. A helicopter carrier will take part in the exercise, along with 34,000 personnel, according to a defense forces official who declined to give his name in line with military policy.
Governor John Connally, Nellie Connally, President John F. Kennedy, and Jacqueline Kennedy in Presidential limousine, Dallas. Unidentified photographer, November 22, 1963. Photo Booth http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/photobooth/2013/10/slide-show-jfk-november-22-1963-a-bystanders-view-of-history-at-the-icp.html#slide_ss_0=3
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.3552 The euro declined to the lowest level in two weeks against the dollar Dollar Index 80.32 Japan Yen 97.93 Swiss Franc 0.9078 Pound 1.6030 Aussie 0.9474 India Rupee 61.82 South Korea Won 1061.90 Brazil Real 2.2348 Egypt Pound 6.8883 South Africa Rand 10.0487
Chinese manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 18 months.
China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.4 in October, the highest since April 2012 and up from 51.1 in September, National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in Beijing today.
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.32 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3552 [The annual rate fell to 0.7 percent, the lowest since November 2009, from 1.1 percent in September, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said in a preliminary estimate today] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
“The euro is being sold as weaker inflation data suddenly put an ECB rate cut back on the table,” said Etsuko Yamashita http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-01/euro-near-2-week-low-as-economic-weakness-fuels-ecb-easing-bets.html
The euro slid 0.2 percent to $1.3555 at 2:46 p.m. in Tokyo after reaching $1.3540, the weakest since Oct. 17. Yesterday it dropped 1.11 percent, the most since June 2012.
The euro area’s annual consumer-price index declined to 0.7 percent last month, the least since November 2009, from 1.1 percent in September, the European Union’s statistics office said yesterday. Euro-area unemployment stood at a record 12.2 percent in September, separate data showed.
The ECB has said there’s a “subdued outlook” for price growth in the region, and the October data mark the ninth month the rate has been less than its 2 percent ceiling. Policy makers next meet on Nov. 7.
The ECB will cut its refinancing rate to 0.25 percent from 0.5 percent in December, according to forecasts published yesterday in a client note by Greg Fuzesi, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London. The weaker-than-forecast CPI numbers raise “very big” questions about the outlook for inflation and the ECB’s response, Fuzesi said.
Two duplex apartments at the One57 condo tower have sold for more than $90 million each -- a staggering number even in Manhattan’s super-luxe market. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/with-90-million-condos-needle-towers-jostle-for-views.html
One57, just steps from New York’s Carnegie Hall, is not only crazy expensive, it’s super-tall for a residential building.
A computer rendering of 432 Park, a 1,400-foot-high condominium under construction in Midtown Manhattan, looking northwest toward Central Park. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/with-90-million-condos-needle-towers-jostle-for-views.html
A computer rendering of a bathroom designed by Deborah Berke for the 432 Park condominium tower. The 10-foot square windows contain glass in the largest dimensions available today to take advantage of panoramic views. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/with-90-million-condos-needle-towers-jostle-for-views.html
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ Commodities |
Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1324.81 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12
Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 96.38 [4 Month Lows] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.Z13.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
WTI for December delivery was at $96.48 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 10 cents, at 1:52 p.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 0.4 percent to $96.38 yesterday, the lowest since June 26.
Since trading just below $110.00 at the end of August, the price of WTI [West Texas Intermediate] has retreated more than 10% to trade at 97.85 [now 96.38] last 28-OCT-2013 http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2810.pdf
That retreat in the price is entirely correlated to a reduction in the ‘geopolitical’ premium as the two Presidents thawed previously frozen relations. In fact, if the US and Iran were able to cut through the noise and to the chase, WTI could trade as low as $75.00.
THE recent rapprochement between President Barack Obama and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani has certainly snapped a losing sequence in US-Iran rela- tions that goes all the way back to the Iranian revolution in 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran.
Emerging Markets
Frontier Markets
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Congo army says hunting rebels deep into mountain bases [This is an unexpectedly decisive Military Outcome] Africa |
Congo's army said on Thursday it was hunting rebels deep into forests and mountains along the border with Rwanda and Uganda, the last insurgent hideouts after they were driven from towns they held during a 20-month rebellion.
Ugandan mediators said talks had restarted on Wednesday in Kampala between the government and M23 rebels, but Kinshasa's U.N.-backed army appears on the verge of defeating the most serious uprising to plague the mineral-rich east since the end of the last major war a decade ago.
"We are going to pursue M23 and push them into a corner, wherever they hide, because they are criminals," Congo army spokesman Colonel Olivier Hamuli told Reuters.
"We must not leave them time (to reorganize) because they have martyred the Congolese people for too long. Now is the time to bring peace," Hamuli said.
M23 officials said they withdrew from towns under diplomatic pressure. Bertrand Bissimwa, M23's political leader, told French radio RFI that the military losses would not alter their demands in talks.
Clashes were reported in the hills above Bunagana, the last rebel-controlled town to fall this week, and around Runyoni, a hill that was the birthplace of the rebellion last year.
At their peak last November, M23 occupied the regional capital, Goma, after the army fled and rebels marched past peacekeepers. This defeat led to the U.N. force and mandate being bolstered, an overhaul of Congo's army command and pressure on rebel support, changing the tide of the fighting.
While the deep roots of conflict - ranging from the presence of Rwandan Hutu rebels, ethnic tensions and simmering conflicts over land and minerals - remain, the pace of the advance of Congo's army is unprecedented.
"The M23 may be nearing its end," Jason Stearns, a Congo expert, wrote on his blog, Congo Siasa. "This would be historic - it would be the first time the Congolese government had defeated a major rebellion."
"And it would be the first time since 1996 that an armed group allied to Rwanda is not present in the eastern Congo."
Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Keeping the Pace @IMFNews http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/afr/eng/sreo1013.pdf
Global headwinds have moderately lowered sub-Saharan Africa’s growth in 2013, but the pace is expected to pick up in 2014. Strong investment demand continues to support growth in most of the region. Output is projected to expand by 5 percent in 2013 and 6 percent in 2014
Most of the major risks to the outlook for the region stem from external factors. Further weakening in emerging market economies—including some of sub-Saharan Africa’s new economic partners—or in advanced economies could affect sub-Saharan Africa’s prospects for growth, including through commodity price declines.
The analysis finds that in the past three years, foreign portfolio flows to sub-Saharan Africa’s frontier economies have grown considerably, and the current bout of global financial market turbulence has so far left most of these countries relatively unscathed.
Growth is expected to be particularly strong in mineral-exporting and low-income countries, including Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and a few others.
In South Africa, the region’s largest economy, real growth in 2013 is projected at 2 percent, well below the regional average.
For the top five resource-rich sub-Saharan African countries ranked by exports to China as a share of GDP—Angola, South Africa, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo—
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +19.42% 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND
Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.0509 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.8889 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg 6,181.86 +15.87% 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +38.23% 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
Revenue earned by Nigeria this year may be as much as $12 billion short of budget estimates as theft of crude and output disruptions persist in the oil-rich Niger River delta, the Finance Ministry said. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/nigeria-finance-ministry-says-revenue-gap-may-reach-12-billion.html
With a 2013 budget based on a daily output of 2.53 million barrels and an oil price of $79 a barrel, Africa’s biggest oil producer expected revenue of almost $80 billion from exports. In the first half of the year, oil receipts amounted to $28.2 billion, more than $7 billion below the estimate, according to central bank figures.
“What is amazing now is that we’ve had this quantity of shock and we were able to weather it,” Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in an interview late yesterday in Abuja, the capital. “You can say theft, but it’s still a quantity shock.”
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country of more than 160 million people, depends on crude exports for about 80 percent of government revenue and 95 percent of export income. The country saves the balance of revenue above the budgeted price in a special account, “designed for these kind of incidents,” according to the minister.
The average price of Nigeria’s light, sweet crude has stayed above $100 a barrel this year. Criminal gangs tapping oil from pipelines for illegal sale have posed the biggest threat to output since a government amnesty in 2009 reduced armed attacks led by rebels fighting for greater control of the region’s resources.
“When there’s a breakage the impact is that the pipes are shut down, the effect is that 400,000 barrels are shut down,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “The actual theft is like 70 to 80,000 barrels a day.”
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +76.84% 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
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Al-Shabaab 2.0 Africa |
Interestingly, I think the #Westgate Attackers might well represent an Al-Shabaab 2.0. The Extraordinary thing is how Al-Shabaab are able to leverage the new Digital World to such outstanding effect. The Linguistics around their Tweets speak powerfully to the fact that Al-Shabaab's Audience is no longer in Mogadishu, its in the Diaspora Communities in the West in Minneapolis, London et al. The Direction of their Digital Voice speaks volumes to the Internationalisation of this Group.
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N.S.E Today |
The Nairobi All Share rallied +0.472% to close at 133.87 and set a Fresh All Time Closing High. The Nairobi All Share has rallied +2.401% this week, +7.388% since Westgate and is +41.123% in 2013. The Nairobi NSE20 eased 2.91 points to close at 4989.97 but is girding itself and will hurdle 5,000 convincingly and as soon as next week. Equity Turnover was 610.248m and caps off a Busy week notwithstanding that one session was lost this week because of a Systems Outage. Safaricom set an All Time Closing High for the 2nd consecutive session and ahead of its H1 Earnings Release as early as next week. The IMF @IMFNews in its latest Regional Economic Outlook noted ''The analysis finds that in the past three years, foreign portfolio flows to sub-Saharan Africa’s frontier economies have grown considerably'' and in fact the defining characteristic of the SSA Bull Market and its an SSA wide Phenomena has been exactly as the IMF has described. The Bull Market experienced from Nigeria +38.23% in 2013, through Ghana where the Composite Index is +76.84% in 2013 and a whisker off an all time High, South Africa All Share which is +19.42% and hit record highs this week and even Egypt is at 26th January 2011 Highs has been a consequence of increased International Allocation to SSA Equities. This Flow has of course targeted the Large Capitalisation Counters and given that we are starting from an egregiously underweight position, I see this Process of Increased Allocation remaining a Rising Tide through Year end and into 2014. I can foresee these Benchmark Indices rallying a further 5%-10% through Year End. SSA Equity Markets remain in a sweet Spot.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom firmed +1.06% to close at 9.55 and set an All Time Closing High for the second consecutive session. Safaricom traded shares at a session High of 9.70 +2.645% and that matches the All Time High Price Print also printed yesterday. Safaricom traded 3.385m shares worth 32.375m. Safaricom is +89.108% in 2013 and will release its H1 Earnings as early as next week. Safaricom is now the largest Capitalisation Stock at the Nairobi Securities Exchange with a Market Cap of 388b Kenya shillings. Therefore, Next weeks Earnings Release is a Flagship headline Event for the Nairobi Securities Exchange. I expect Safaricom to outperform consensus Market Expectations.
Kenya Airways ticked 0.4784% higher to close at 10.50 and traded 361,700 shares. Kenya Airways rallied +14.48% September 26th through October 2nd and has plateaud at 10.45 since October 2nd. There has been Congestion as a Supply Overhang has been cleared. I expect a sharp Move higher and to 12.00 and imminently. All the Bad News has been throughly baked into the Price and therefore, I expect a number of Positive sharp Surprises going forward.
Uchumi improved +1.18% to close at 21.50 and traded 78,100 shares. Uchumi trades on a Trailing PE of 15.926 and is cheap on that basis versus its SSA Peers.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 48.50 and traded solid volume of 1.867m shares worth 90.57m and the day after KCB released its Q3 2013 Earnings Release. Kenya Commercial Bank reported a +15.87% Profit Before Tax Acceleration, a +3.654% Expansion in its Total Assets to 385.2095b and a +7.99% Increase in Net Loan and Advances to Customers Number. Kenya Commercial Bank also informed us via this Earnings Release that its Market Share Ratios are Kenya 14%, Tanzania 3%, Uganda 3%, Rwanda 7%, Burundi 0.3% and South Sudan 42%. Interestingly whilst Kenya remains responsible for 89.3% of the profit Before Tax, South Sudan is 2nd at 9%. Kenya Commercial Bank trades on a Trailing PE of 11.88 and has posted a +63.025% Return in 2013. Kenya Commercial Bank targets 55.00 by early January.
Equity Bank firmed 0.7% to close at 35.75 and traded 993,200 shares worth 35.513m. Equity Bank is +50.52% in 2013 and trades on a Trailing PE of 10.966. Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 18.65 and traded 2.109m shares worth 39.362m. Barclays Bank is +18.412% [ex Dividends] in 2013 and trades on a Trailing PE of 11.584. COOP Bank firmed +1.12% to close at 18.05 and traded 1.436m shares. CFC StanBic Bank firmed +3.205% to close at 80.50 and traded 35,300 shares. CFC StanBic is cheap versus its Peers on a Trailing PE of 8.131 and having accelerated H1 PAT +81.43%.
Centum rallied 6.5066% to close at 32.75 and traded good volume of 1.954m shares worth 64.448m. Centum traded shares at its Daily Limit 33.75 +9.62% for a good deal of the session. Centum has rallied +23.584% since 1st October. Mr. Chris Kirubi ignited the Price Rally in part when the CMA announced that Mr. Kirubi was exempt from making a Takeover Offer and was given permission to increase his Shareholding 5% from 24.99% to 29.99%. This increase would equate to 32.65m shares. Centum trades on a Trailing PE of 8.687 and reported a +110.01% in FY Profit After Tax.
Transcentury was high ticked +9.24% to close at 32.50 and traded 500 shares.
BRITAM rallied +2.89% and closed at 10.65 with 179,600 shares changing hands.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
EABL firmed 0.31% to close at 320.00 and was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange with 707,200 shares worth 226.303m and 37.083% of the Volume traded at the Exchange during todays session. EABL is +20.75% in 2013. EABL reported a -27.1298% Decline in FY Profit Before Tax. Investors increasingly have appreciated a more expansive Game necessitated a more expansive Balance Sheet and that FY Earnings were crimped because EABL is seeking to accelerate the Medium Term Earnings Trajectory.
East African Portland Cement rallied +6.33375% to close at 75.50 and was trading at session Highs of 78.00 +9.86% at the Finish Line. East African Portland traded just 5,500 shares and shares are tightly held. Portland reported strong FY Turnaround Earnings this week, where it declared a FY Profit After Tax of 1.775383b versus a Loss of 0.972b previously. Portland is +25.83% since October 1st.
Total Kenya rebounded +4.123% to close at 25.25 and traded 34,500 shares. Total aims at 30.00.
Mumias Sugar eased 1.4285% to close at 3.45 and is testing Key Price Support.
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