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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 01st of March 2013
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

#Mindspeak 2013 RICH TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php

Marx said, “Revolution comes like a thief in the night.” via @johngithongo
http://johngithongo.wordpress.com

@JohnGithongo in the House #Mindspeak Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/c3ntxw

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21-JAN-2013 :: The Pride of Africa @Kenya Airways
Africa


Kenya Inc. Manifestoes, Dreams and Real Life The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX2502.pdf

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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La dolce vita first Sequence YouTube
Law & Politics


The iconic first scene, as helicopters fly over ancient Roman ruins
Federico Fellini La Dolce Vita
http://thefilmstage.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/peroni-la-dolce-vita-still.jpg

Benedict officially ceased to be the Pope at 20:00 local time (19:00 GMT). BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21624149#TWEET634194

Benedict XVI has officially left the papacy, first Pope in 600 years to do so
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/307206252268752897/photo/1

The Geopolitics of Oil and Natural Gas: Russia is Back to Stay in the
Middle East -
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-geopolitics-of-oil-and-natural-gas-russia-is-back-to-stay-in-the-middle-east/5324734

Russia is back. President Vladimir Putin wants the world to
acknowledge that Russia remains a global power. He is making his stand
in Syria.

The Soviet Union acquired the Tartus Naval Port in Syria in 1971
without any real purpose for it. With their ships welcomed in Algeria,
Cuba or Vietnam, Tartus was too insignificant to be developed. After
the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lacked the funds to spend on
the base and no reason to invest in it.
The Russian return to the Middle East brought them first to where the
Soviet Union had its closest ties. Libya had been a major buyer of
arms and many of the military officers had studied in the Soviet
Union. Russia was no longer a global power, but it could be used by
the Libyans as a counter force to block domination by the United
States and Europeans.
When Gaddafi fell, Tartus became Russia’s only presence in the region.
That and the discovery of vast gas deposits just offshore have
transformed the once insignificant port into a strategic necessity.

Earlier at the United Nations, Russia had failed to realize that
Security Council Resolution 1973 that was to implement a new policy of
“responsibility to protect” cloaked a hidden agenda. It was to be
turned from a no-fly zone into a free-fire zone for NATO. That
strategic blunder of not vetoing the resolution led to the destruction
of Gaddafi’s regime and cost Russia construction contracts and its
investments in Libyan gas and oil to the tune of 10 billion dollars.

Putin has described the collapse of the Soviet Union as a
“geopolitical catastrophe.” -

In spite of all of the pressure from Washington and elsewhere to have
him persuade Bashar Al-Assad to relinquish power, Putin is staying
loyal to the isolated regime. He is calculating that Russia can afford
to lose among the Arabs what little prestige that it has remaining and
gain a major political and economic advantage in Southern Europe and
in the Eastern Mediterranean.

What Russia lost through the anti-Al-Assad alliance was the
possibility to control the natural gas market across Europe and the
means to shape events on the continent. In July 2011, Iran, Iraq, and
Syria agreed to build a gas pipeline from the South Pars gas field in
Iran to Lebanon and across the Mediterranean to Europe. The pipeline
that would have been managed by Gazprom would have carried 110 million
cubic meters of gas. About a quarter of the gas would be consumed by
the transit countries, leaving seventy or so million cubic meters to
be sold to Europe.

Violence in Iraq and the Syrian civil war has ended any hope that the
pipeline will be built, but not all hope is lost. One possibility is
for Al-Assad to withdraw to the traditional Aliwite coastal enclave to
begin the partitioning of Syria into three or more separate zones,
Aliwite, Kurdish, and Sunni. Al-Assad’s grandfather in 1936 had asked
the French administrators of the Syrian mandate to create a separate
Alawite territory in order to avoid just this type of ethnic violence.

What the French would not do circumstance may force the grandson to
accept as his only choice to survive. His one hundred thousand heavily
armed troops would be able to defend the enclave.

The four or five million Alawites, Christians, and Druze would have
agricultural land, water, a deep water port and an international
airport. Very importantly, they would have the still undeveloped
natural gas offshore fields that extend from Israel, Lebanon, and
Cyprus. The Aliwite Republic could be energy self-sufficient and even
an exporter. Of course, Russia’s Gazprom in which Putin has a vital
interest would get a privileged position in the development of the
resource.

In an last effort to bring the nearly two year long civil war to an
end, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov urged Syrian president
Bashar al-Assad at the end of December to start talks with the Syrian
opposition in line with the agreements for a cease fire that was
reached in Geneva on 30 June. The Russians have also extended the
invitation to the Syrian opposition National Coalition head, Ahmed
Moaz al-Khatib. The National Coalition refuses to negotiate with
Al-Assad and Al-Assad will not relinquish power voluntarily.

The hardened positions of both sides leaves little hope for a
negotiated settlement; and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has made it
clear that only by an agreement among the Syrians will Russia accept
the removal of Al-Assad. Neither do they see a settlement through a
battlefield victory which leaves only a partitioning that will allow
the civil war to just wind down as all sides are exhausted.

The Russians are troubled by what they see as a growing trend among
the Western Powers to remove disapproved administrations in other
sovereign countries and a program to isolate Russia. They saw the U.S
involvement in the Ukraine and Georgia. There was the separation of
Kosovo from Serbia over Russian objections. There was the extending of
NATO to the Baltic States after pledging not to expand the
organization to Russia’s frontier.

Again, Russia is seeing Washington’s hand in Syria in the conflict
with Iran. The United States is directing military operations in Syria
with Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia at a control center in Adana
about 60 miles from the Syrian border, which is also home to the
American air base in Incirlik. The Program by President Obama to have
the CIA acquire heavy weapons at a facility in Benghazi to be sent to
Turkey and onward to Syria is the newest challenge that Putin cannot
allow to go unanswered. It was the involvement of Ambassador Chris
Stevens in the arms trade that may have contributed to his murder; and
the Russians are not hesitating to remind the United States and
Europeans that their dealings with the various Moslem extremists is a
very dangerous game.

The Russians are backing their determination to block another regime
change by positioning and manning an advanced air defense system in
what is becoming the Middle East casino. Putin is betting that NATO
will not risk in Syria the cost that an air operation similar to what
was employed over Libya will impose. Just in case Russia’s
determination is disregarded and Putin’s bluff is called, Surface to
surface Iskander missiles have been positioned along the Jordanian and
Turkish frontiers. They are aimed at a base in Jordan operated by the
United States to train rebels and at Patriot Missile sites and other
military facilities in Turkey.

Putin is certain that he is holding the winning hand in this very high
stakes poker game. An offshore naval task force, the presence of
Russian air defense forces, an electronic intelligence center in
Latakia, and the port facilities at Tartus will guarantee the
independence of the enclave. As the supplier of sixty percent of
Turkey’s natural gas, Moscow does have leverage that Ankara will not
be able to ignore; and Ankara well knows that gas is one of Putin’s
diplomatic weapons.

When the Turks and U.S see that there is little chance of removing
Al-Assad, they will have no option other than to negotiate a
settlement with him; and that would involve Russia as the protector
and the mediator. That would establish Russia’s revived standing as a
Mediterranean power; and Putin could declare confidently that “Russia
is back.” After that, the Russians will be free to focus upon their
real interests in the region.

And what is Russia’s real interest? Of course, it is oil and gas and
the power that control of them can bring.

Tartus Syria
http://mw2.google.com/mw-panoramio/photos/medium/46651369.jpg

Vladimir Putin
http://www.freeinfosociety.com/media/images/951.jpg

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24-OCT-2011 Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message?
Law & Politics


The new R2P [Right to Protect] rule [which was used in Libya] is a
powerful legal tool.

It seems to me the pitch has been tilted big Time.

read more


Africa Is More Stable than You've Been Led to Think by @Jonathan_Berman
Law & Politics


The recent political instability in Mali has cast a cloud of poor
publicity over the economic and commercial rise of Africa, one of the
few bright spots in the global economy. Press analysis has speculated
whether political instability is endemic to Africa and likely to
expand in the future. It's an important point for the many companies,
from GE to Unilever, that are turning to Africa for their next wave of
growth.

Across Africa, successful coups are rare and getting rarer. This
Economist Intelligence Unit has tracked the trend since 1960, shortly
after colonial withdrawal began. Given the preconceived impression of
Africa as coup crazy, many lose sight of the decline of coups. While
working in Kenya recently, I called a leading investor in Silicon
Valley to discuss Africa's emerging technology sector. He sent me a
graphic he found in the British newspaper mapping all the secessionist
movements in Africa, and what the map would look like if they all
succeeded. That speculative, uninformed graphic did its readers a
terrible disservice, as it would if it sounded alarms about the
secessionist movements in Texas, California and New York City, all of
which have threatened to leave the US.

There are many drivers for why coups are playing a diminishing role in
Africa. Prominent among them is that governments are getting more
capable at governing. The generation that liberated Africa has been
replaced by one that is better educated, more widely traveled, and
with access to better technology and information. Deep governance
challenges remain, but Idi Amin and his ilk are no longer running the
continent.

Africa's governments aren't just becoming more stable. They're
becoming more representative, albeit in an irregular pattern, as
befits a continent with 54 countries. The Polity IV Project measures
political regimes on a spectrum from fully institutionalized
autocracies (low scores) to fully institutionalized democracies (high
scores). As can be seen below, the trend since 1990, across all of
Africa, has been towards more democracy.

Whether representative government is good for business is a matter of
long debate, and in any event depends on how much a business benefits
from privileged access. Most of the CEOs I know leading competitive,
productive businesses in Africa consider a more representative
government good for Africa and good for them. Particularly in the wake
of the Arab Spring and with social media spreading across Africa, a
more responsive government is seen as assuring continuity of both
policy and regimes.

For CEOs in Africa and many frontier markets, more responsive
government means better opportunities for them to engage meaningfully
in the policy-making process. "Blue ribbon commissions" and the like
may be a source of skepticism in the US, but bodies like the newly
formed competitiveness council in Nigeria are the first real
opportunity for businesses to improve how African governments manage
the economy.

Bad government and even failed governments will continue to appear in
Africa. If history is a guide, their appearance will be magnified by
the press. Don't be fooled by that magnifying glass. Keep your eye on
the long-term trend.

Conclusions

Dear Jonathan,

Bravo! It was Vinod Khosla who said 'The Future is not seen in the
Rear View Mirror.'

And clearly Africa which was once disconnected from the Rest of the
World is finally converging with it. I think The Mobile Phone [and
with it the Mobile Wallet and the Mobile Internet] was the
revolutionary Tipping Agent. It connected Africans to each Other and
to the World. And I think it created a Critical Mass amongst the
Populations and allowed them to make their Voices heard, to pressure
their Governments and effect more Responsiveness. Clearly, There will
be bumps in the Road and disjunctive Moves but the Broad Trend is
pointing in the Right Direction.

I know my Proprietary 'Foot Traffic Indicator' might not be entirely
empirical but If You care to track the Global CEOs who are making
their Way to Africa, its simply off the Charts. And They should be.
There is real Growth here and although its starting from a Low base
its gaining Traction. If You want evidence of an Emerging Middle
Class, look at Johnnie Walker Sales in East Africa which expanded 74%.
That is a Popping over the Radar Data Set.

It would be churlish not to recognise that China has played a Role. On
the Commodity Side, Africa a Supplier of Raw Materials was always
faced with a Demand Deficit until China came along and decided to lock
in Supplies on a Term Basis. This extended Longevity around the Demand
Structure has lifted a lot of Boats.

I remain concerned that the US is seeing Africa through a 'Pivot to
Asia' Prism, however. And The US' Priority is to staunch and repel the
Chinese Advance on the African Continent via the Insertion of Hard
Power. I feel that the US should double down the  Economic Bet.

However, I feel The Real African Story is not about what can be dug
out of the Ground but around unleashing Those who walk upon the
Ground.
Faithfully
Aly-Khan Satchu
Nairobi


Kenyan election Don’t mention the war Economist

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21572821-voters-are-preparing-trouble-during-presidential-polls-are-too-close

METAL shutters have come down, stocks of food have been run down and
tatty bags with clothing for several weeks lie by the side of a road
leading out of Nairobi, Kenya’s ethnically mixed capital, to farmland
north-west. “We don’t want to be here for the election,” says a
15-year-old boy helping his parents lock up their tin-and-timber home.

Will Kenya’s nightmare recur, as many fear, potentially crashing the
economy and undermining the country’s standing as one of Africa’s
better multiparty democracies? There are plenty of reasons to worry.
For one, the race is very close. Raila Odinga (pictured above), the
sitting prime minister who heads the Coalition for Reform and
Democracy, is neck-and-neck in the polls with Uhuru Kenyatta, the
deputy prime minister from the Jubilee alliance.

Unless one of them pulls ahead, supporters are almost certain to
accuse each other of vote rigging—which might provoke a violent
reaction. To attain a clear victory in the run-off, the winner will
have to garner the support of the third-placed candidate, Musalia
Mudavadi. He could emerge as kingmaker, but only if he is able to take
his voters with him as a bloc. At the last election he supported Mr
Odinga; more recently he co-operated with Mr Kenyatta but then fell
out with him.

All three have campaigned along ethnic lines, polarising the
electorate. The five largest tribal groups, making up almost 70% of
the population, act as near-monolithic blocs at elections.

Kenya has a good chance of avoiding a national meltdown so long as the
winning margin in the election is large enough. If it becomes hard to
tell who has won—especially amid allegations of rigging—and the
judiciary and security forces act unfairly, then trouble will loom.
The more likely scenario after the first round is a series of legal
challenges that will push back the run-off to May. In the meantime,
sporadic acts of violence will probably erupt in a few places, as
during presidential contests in 1992 and 1997.

Andrew Morton remarked in his 1998 biography of the former president,
Daniel arap Moi, that land and tribe are the “two mighty rivers of
Kenya’s political landscape”. It is much discussed in Nairobi how far
the country has really changed. Ethnic clientelism certainly lives on.

And yet successful elections this year would be a big step towards
Kenya’s becoming a modern, pluralist state. The country held its
first-ever presidential debate last month. The new constitution
promises to create political structures that will fundamentally
transform how power is allocated. Over time it could chip away at
patronage networks. The big men have not gone away but voters and
vested interests are less and less willing to tolerate them.

Conclusions

Clearly a Too Close too Call Outcome presents a clear and present
Danger. The Two Candidates might well find themselves Prisoners of
their own Constituencies in such a Situation. However, I would argue
that if you look at Momentum and the Energy of the Base, then Uhuruto
have their Noses in front and a chance of taking it in the First
Round. The Constant Refrains from the Likes of Johnny Carson [Choices
have Consequences] and the ICC in fact snagged Votes for Uhuruto as
Kenyans took exception to the perceived Interference. A Victory for
Uhuruto might well consign the ICC to Irrelevancy.

In the Event, We go to a second round, it is not clear that Mr.
Mudavadi can deliver his Vote or whether his Vote will deliver him. In
a second Round, I think His Vote independently goes to the Prime
Minister and this raises the Stakes for the Competition to try and
take it lock, stock and Barrel in the 1st Round.

There are plenty of Naysayers and We hardly have a strong Track
Record. The New Order [look at the Age Skew of the Population, the
Ubiquity of the Mobile Phone and Social Media] is being born and in 5
Years time, I think the situation will be have a completely new
configuration. However, this Time around, The Old Order is still on
the pitch and has not taken itself off.

The Country sits at the Cusp of an Inflection Point. Just like in 2007
when the Economy grew at 7.1% and then crashed and burned, one senses
we are once again at a potential Break Out Moment. Kenya cannot afford
to fail. The Level of Surveillance but by the Local and International
Community is sky high. There have been a slew of Positive Reforms and
You mentioned them. And then More than anything, The Camaderie seen at
the Presidential Debates sent a powerful subliminal Message. What on
Earth are we fighting about if our leaders are so friendly to each
other?

Monday and the next few weeks present us with a potentially High Beta
Moment. We could fly or we could crash. Unlike the 15 year Old You
quoted, I am staying in Nairobi because this is the Moment to stand up
and be counted.
Aly-Khan Satchu
Nairobi

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3063
Dollar Index 81.90
Japan Yen 92.68
Swiss Franc 0.9368
Pound 1.5165
Aussie 1.0236
India Rupee 54.745
South Korea Won 1084.34
Brazil Real 1.9792
Egypt Pound 6.7450
South Africa Rand 9.0156

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.893 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

 Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency against those of six
major U.S. trading partners, climbed 3.5 percent in February, ending a
two-month decline.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 92.64 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3065 Last

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 91.72 Last

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.J13.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Oil dropped 5.6 percent to $92.05 a barrel in February on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1576.55 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Gold fell 5.1 percent to $1,578.10 an ounce in New York in February.

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Congolese rebel group M23 has dismissed its political leader, Jean-Marie Runiga, accusing him of "high treason." VOA
Africa


Congolese rebel group M23 has dismissed its political leader,
Jean-Marie Runiga, accusing him of "high treason."

An M23 spokesman said Thursday that the group's military chief,
General Sultani Makenga, has assumed leadership of the group.

Runiga confirmed his dismissal in a brief interview Thursday with VOA.

He said, "I have no comments to make even if I have been dismissed. My
official spokesperson will detail the reasons why."

M23's military command released a statement late Wednesday, saying
chairman Runiga was unable to carry out the group's political aims.

It said Runiga also allowed Bosco Ntaganda, a former Congolese
general, to influence high-level decisions. Ntaganda is wanted by the
International Criminal Court for recruiting and using child soldiers.

M23's political spokesman Bertrand Bisimwa said Runiga may have fled
to join Ntaganda.

Bosco Ntaganda
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/59726000/jpg/_59726786_014453877-1.jpg

Africa’s bond markets Kings of the wild frontier The Economist
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21572789-search-yield-has-taken-investors-exotic-territory-kings-wild

INVESTORS looking for more than the paltry yields on US Treasuries
might consider Côte d’Ivoire’s eurobond (as a dollar bond issued
outside America is known). It was issued in 2010 as recompense for
bonds that Côte d’Ivoire had defaulted on a decade earlier. Those
debts in turn were Brady bonds, an invention of Nicholas Brady, a
former American Treasury secretary, which was designed to relieve the
debt burden of poor countries.

Côte d’Ivoire’s eurobond is thus a residue of debt that has soured
twice. The bond does not mature until 2032. The issuing country was
not long ago embroiled in civil war. Yet so urgent is the desire for
alternatives to rich-world government bonds that the yield has halved
to 7% since the beginning of 2012. The hunt for bonds that pay more
interest to retirees has taken mainstream pension funds beyond the
rich world, past markets that are merely emerging, to “frontier
markets” where the rewards—and the risks—are greater.

Aside from Côte d’Ivoire, there are eight issuers of eurobonds in
sub-Saharan Africa that count as frontier markets (including Angola,
which is the guarantor of a loan note that is counted as a eurobond by
many). Zambia is the newest. Its debut issue in September was heavily
oversubscribed. The initial plan was to raise $500m but the auction
drew almost $12 billion of orders. In the end $750m of ten-year bonds
were sold at a yield of 5.4%. Almost all were snapped up by fund
managers in America and Europe.

Conclusions

The Lunacy of Credit Ratings is evidenced in the Ratings applied to a
number of African Sovereign Credits. Angola at BB- is ludicrous.
Angola has an Absolute Ability to pay. What is interesting is that
African Credit Spreads are reflecting the Reality much more accurately
than the Ratings.
Aly-Khan Satchu Nairobi

10-JAN-2011 Ivory Coast's Eurobond A Good Investment The Star

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/011NSX1001.pdf

These Bonds pay a 2.5 per cent annual coupon and mature in 2032. They
are currently trading at a price of 40 cents in the Dollar, a yield to
Maturity in 2032 of about 16 per cent annualised.

The reason the price has dropped is self evident. I am betting that
now that the international community has drawn a red line, the
financial strangulation of Gbagbo will work. At an interest rate
equivalent to 16 per cent in dollars until the year 2032, I think the
Bonds are a Buy.

Investing in Africa is not for the faint-hearted.

Ivory Coast December 2032 Bond The Best Performing Bond in the World
2012 Twitpic

http://www.twitpic.com/bgv86e

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg Year To Date +23.55%
[1-Year +45.82%]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

This Index is at an All Time High

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg Year To Date +17.79% [1-Year +64.36%]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

November 2008 Highs.

Dollar versus Rand 5 Day Chart INO 9.02052 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=FOREX_USDZAR

The currency retreated 1.9 percent in the week, the most since Oct. 5,
weakening 0.1 percent to 9.0301 per dollar by 10:05 a.m. in
Johannesburg. It slumped 2.4 percent yesterday.South Africa’s deficit
in 2012 was more than six times larger than a year before at 117.7
billion rand as slower global growth and mining strikes curbed exports
in Africa’s largest economy.  The trade gap reached 24.5 billion rand
($2.7 billion) last month compared with 2.7 billion rand in December,
the Pretoria- based South African Revenue Service said yesterday, more
than the 9.7 billion rand median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg
survey

South Africa All Share Bloomberg Year To Date +1.17% [1-Year +15.78%]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.7444 [Breaking down again?]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg Year To Date +0.50% [1-Year +2.61%]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EGX30:IND

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Kenya's Existential Elections Why They Matter GHOA Outlook
Kenyan Economy


If there is a single event that could be marked down as a pivotal
point for East Africa and one that sets the tone for the rest of 2013
it would have to be the Kenyan elections. All of East Africa will be
watching closely as Kenyans head to the polls. Two dates have been
circled for the past few months; March 4 (Election Day) and April 11
(the date for the election run-o  should a clear winner not emerge on
March 4).

read more


10-DEC-2012 :: A Deep dive into Kenya
Kenyan Economy


Kenyan Ethnic Loyalties Trump Economic Policies in Vote Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-01/ethnic-identity-trumps-economic-policies-in-kenyan-vote.html

Mike Mwaura says he doesn’t care much about the policies of Kenya’s
presidential candidates in March 4 elections. He wants a fellow ethnic
Kikuyu to retain power to keep members of his tribe in important
positions.

“We protect our own,” said Mwaura, a 35-year-old taxi driver in
Nairobi, the capital. “A leader from another tribe could choose a new
town clerk, and then our taxi licenses could be taken and replaced by
his tribesmen.”

The ICC charges may embolden Kenyatta and Ruto’s “fanatical followers”
to vote for them to shut 68-year-old Odinga out, said Kibunjia.

“The wazungu are using their messages and civil society to overthrow
an Uhuru-Ruto presidency just like they did in Libya and Syria,”
Mwangi said. “We don’t want to go back to those colonial times.
Kenyans will elect who they want.”

Political leaders spoke out against tribalism in the country’s
first-ever presidential debate in February. Kenyatta called it a
“cancer” that creates conflict, while Odinga said its a “disease of
the elite.” They said they plan to rise above tribalism with policies
to fight unemployment and foster economic growth that will benefit the
poor.

“For us young people, all we really care about is a leader with the
vision to create jobs,” said Dennis Wafula, a 22-year- old member of
the Luhya tribe, idling in Nairobi’s city center looking for odd jobs.
“Elected or not, they will still go home every night and have a hot
meal. I can’t say the same for myself.”

11-FEB-2013 ::  @BarackObama's Message to Kenyan People and a Tsunami
of Messaging

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/alykhan.pdf

We self-selected the ICC. Interestingly, the myth around the ICC has
consolidated the vote on a tribal basis.And the messages we heard last
week from our western partners has only consolidated it further. In
fact, it's very counter intuitive but commentary from the West has
actually snagged votes for Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto and my
analysis now shows they have a shot at taking this lock, stock and
barrel in the 1st Round.

A pedestrian walks past graffiti on a wall criticizing tribal leaders
in Nairobi Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-01/ethnic-identity-trumps-economic-policies-in-kenyan-vote.html

Inflation hits 4.4pc as milk, fuel prices rise Nation

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Inflation-hits-44pc-as-milk-fuel-prices-rise/-/1006/1707374/-/dx5qg3/-/index.html

Kenya’s overall inflation rate went up for the second consecutive
month this year hitting 4.45 per cent in February on the backdrop of
rising milk and fuel prices.

A statement from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday
said the prices of food and alcoholic drinks increased by at least
1.29 per cent between January and February this year pushing the index
higher. In January, inflation stood at 3.67 per cent.

“Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel prices also went up
by 0.39 per cent. Whereas fuel cost adjustment charges per KWh of
electricity increased slightly, forex adjustment charges on the other
hand, recorded decreases over the review period,”

Conclusions

Aly Khan Satchu, an independent economist in Nairobi, said February's
rate reflected a "tsunami of election-related spending" across the
country Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/28/kenya-inflation-idUSL6N0BS4CG20130228

I also Think that The Normalisation of the Shilling will bring the
recent Spike higher under Control.

Kenya Commercial Bank reports FY 2012 PBT +13.7399% Earnings here
Share Price +28.571% 2013

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           38.25
Total Shares Issued:          2950170000.00
Market Capitalization:        112,844,002,500
EPS:             4.11
PE:                 9.3065

FY Earnings through December 2012 versus FY through December 2011
Total Assets 367.379285b versus 330.716159b +11.085976%
Loans and Advances Net to Customers 221.664226b versus 198.724919b +11.5432%
Kenya Government Securities 51.095443b versus 34.023364b +50.1775%
Customer Deposits 288.037367b versus 259.308849b +11.0788%
Total Interest Income 43.082218b versus 28.501387b +51.1583%
Total Interest Expenses 12.445986b versus 4.616241b +169.613%
Net Interest Income 30.636232b versus 23.885146b +28.264788%
Total Non Interest Income 15.620886b versus 16.022665b -2.5075%
Total Operating Income 46.257118b versus 39.907811b +15.9099%
Loan Loss Provision 3.756642b versus 2.494817b
Staff Costs 11.861196b versus 10.883679b +8.981%
Other Operating Expenses 9.806346b versus 8.059485b
Total Operating Expenses 29.048975b versus 24.778437b
FY PBT 17.208143b versus 15.129374b +13.7399%
FY PAT 12.203531b versus 10.981046b +11.13268%
FY EPS 4.11 versus 3.72 +10.48387%
FY Dividend 1.90 versus 1.85
Dividend is worth 4.967% of Yield

Commentary


Branches Number
KCB Kenya 173 Branches
KCB Tanzania 11
KCB Sudan 20
KCB Uganda 14
KCB Rwanda 11
KCB Burundi 1
Group Total 230
´┐╝Cost to income ratio: Lower by 290bps (Basis Points) from 60.3% to 57.4%
The Group Chairman also noted that the International Businesses
(Tanzania, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi) reported a 39%
growth in profit from KShs1.0 Billion in 2011 to KShs1.4 Billion in
2012

Commenting on the results, the Group CEO, Joshua Oigara, said the bank
will continue to leverage growth in regional economies, the East
African Integration and new economic frontiers, innovation in
technology-driven products, championing financial inclusion, support
entrepreneurship development for our youth, leverage on our people
skills to thrive in the competitive banking landscape, he added.

Conclusions

There was a Steep Step Down Q4 versus Q3 and that was because There
was a One Off 2.3b Shilling Recovery in Q4 2011. Stripping that Out
The Underlying Growth Rate was 30%.
The Regional Businesses continue to show good Year on Year
Acceleration and in fact the Year on Year Advance would have been even
faster but for a Fraud [insured and fully recoverable] which the
Accountants insisted was provisioned for.
I think KCB under the Leadership of CEO Joshua Oigara and with 230
Branches across The Region is in Prime Position to ride what Joshua
calls a Region which is at the Epicentre of Growth.
Agency and Mobile Banking made a Strong Advance.
The Growth Trajectory is steeper than the Results.

read more






The Full Year Press Release @KCBGroup FY 2012 Results here
Kenyan Economy


Equity Bank reports FY PBT +35.7283% Earnings here share price +18.947% 2013

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTc%3D

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           28.25
Total Shares Issued:          3702780000.00
Market Capitalization:        104,603,535,000
EPS:             3.26
PE:                8.6656

Kenya's lead microfinance model.

FY Results through December 2012 versus FY through December 2011

Total Assets 243.170458b versus 196.293896b +23.88%
Loans and Advances to Customers [Net] 135.692125b versus 113.823792b +19.21244%
Total Interest Income 30.847947b versus 19.339570b
Total Interest Expenses 6.883814b versus 3.116533b
Net Interest Income 23.964133b versus 16.223036b
Total Non Interest Income 12.863346b versus 12.447008b
Total Operating Income 36.827479b versus 28.670045b +28.452%
Loan Loss Provision 1.608316b versus 1.629648b
Staff Costs 7.145470b versus 5.988598b +19.3179%
Total Operating Expenses 19.578805b versus 15.990902b +22.4371%
FY PBT 17.419407b versus 12.834019b +35.7283%
FY PAT 12.080255b versus 10.325157b +16.998%
FY EPS 3.26 versus 2.79 +16.845%
Final Dividend of 1.25 per share +25%

Conclusions

Strong FY Earnings where FY PAT expanded 16.998%.
The Dividend Increase of 25% and the Yield of 4.424% will support.
The PE is now 8.6656.
Dr Mwangi signalled a Strong Q4 at the Q3 Earnings Release where he
said 'The fourth quarter promises to be much better on account of
reduced interest rates, reduced inflation and stability in the
exchange rate.'

BAT reports FY 2012 PAT +5.58% here share price +7.942% 2013

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mjk%3D

Par Value:                  10/-
Closing Price:           530.00
Total Shares Issued:          100000000.00
Market Capitalization:        53,000,000,000
EPS:             32.71
PE:                 16.202

FY Earnings through December 2012 versus Dec 2011
Gross Turnover 30.504b versus 28.818b +5.85%
Excise Duty and VAT [11.095b] versus [8.680b] +27.8225%
Net Revenue 19.409b versus 20.138b -3.62%
Operating Profit 5.104b versus 4.662b +9.48%
Finance Costs [0.350b] versus [0.178b] +96.62%
FY Profit Before Tax 4.754b versus 4.484b +6.021%
FY PAT 3.271b versus 3.098b +5.58%
FY EPS 32.71 versus 30.98 +5.58%
Final Dividend 29/= a share [Interim Dividend of 3.5 already paid]

Company Commentary
Domestic, exports and Contract Manufacture cigarette Volumes grew by 13%
6% increase in Gross Turnover
Company speaks of Illicit Trade.
Company invested 1.2b to further increase Factory Capacity

Conclusions

BAT slowed from a +20.685% PBT Run Rate H1 to +6.021% FY PBT.
However, on a Trailing PE of 16.202 and with a Final Dividend worth
5.4716%, I expect the Price to be supported.
Evidently Excise Duty and VAT at +27.8225% took a bigger Bite out of
Profits and crimped Profits.

Bamburi Cement reports FY PBT 2012 -15.237% share price +10.27% 2013

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mjg%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           204.00
Total Shares Issued:          362960000.00
Market Capitalization:        74,043,840,000
EPS:             12.17
PE:                16.7625

The largest cement manufacturing company in the region.

FY Earnings through December 2012 versus FY through December 2011
FY Turnover 37.491b versus 35.884b +4.4783%
Operating Costs 30.650b versus 27.930b +9.7386%
Operating Profit 6.841b versus 7.954b -16.296%
Investment Income 657m versus 342m
Finance Costs [251m] versus [374m]
FY PBT 7.176b versus 8.466b -15.237%
FY PAT 4.882b versus 5.859b -16.675%
FY EPS 12.17 versus 14.44 -15.72%
Total Comprehensive Income 10.712b versus 5.815b
Gain on Revaluation of Property Plant and Equipment 7.259b
Final Dividend 8.50 per share [+2.00 Interim]

Company Commentary
Cites Growth in Exports into Inland Africa out of Uganda
Growth in Domestic Sales in Kenya despite increased Competition
There was a Decline in growth of export of exports sales into Inland
Markets in the 2nd Half of the Year due to Political Instability
Removal of power Subsidies in Uganda
Reliance on Imported Clinker in Kenya
Expecting Efficiency Gains from completed Bag Filter Project in Mombasa Plant

Conclusions

On a PE of 16.7625 Bamburi is not cheap.
Final Dividend worth 4.1666% of Yield.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 85.60
http://j.mp/5jDOot

The Kenyan shilling  rallied on Thursday for a sixth session to touch
its strongest level against the dollar so far this year. The shilling
has now rallied over 2 percent in the past six
sessions, wiping out losses made earlier this year when importers
stockpiled dollars before the vote.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg Year To Date +12.70%

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

The All Share is 2.3652% below its 2013 closing High from the 13th of February.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg Year To Date +9.33%

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

The ^NSE20 Index is 2.7969% below its 27 Month High from 13th February
this Year.

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share closed 0.27 points higher at 107.18 ahead of
Mondays Holiday and High Impact Event
The Nairobi All Share is +12.9875% in 2013.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index edged 8.12 points lower to close at 4510.47.
The Equity Markets will soar between 30-35% through Year End if the
Election produces a Clear and undisputed Winner.
Its a Coiled Spring.
Equity Turnover was 578.744m versus 253.658m last time.
Puma Energy has terminated discussions with KenolKobil.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom traded 3rd at the Exchange and firmed 0.87% to close at 5.80
and match a 31 Month Closing High previously reached on January 9th
this Year. Safaricom traded a 5.75-5.90 range and 6.744m shares worth
39.397m. There was Buy Side Demand for 360% more shares than were
traded during the Session at the Closing Bell signalling a Move
through 6.00 is close.

Kenya Airways ticked 1.408% lower to close at 10.50 and traded 648,800
shares. Kenya Airways has crossed its Earnings Nadir and everything is
baked into the Price. Its a Buy.

ScanGroup retreated 7.692% to close at 66.00 and traded 28,600 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank was the most actively traded share at the
Securities Exchange The Day after releasing its FY Earnings. Kenya
Commercial Bank had rallied 28.751% through this Morning in a
Parabolic Rally in 2013. Kenya Commercial Bank reported that FY 2012
PBT expanded +13.7399%, FY PAT +11.13268%
and FY EPS +10.48387% to 4.11. There was a Quarter on Quarter Step
Down because in Q4 2011 booked a One Off Recovery of 2.3b Kenya
Shillings. Stripping that Out Year on Year Growth was at 30%. The
Subsidiaries [KCB has 57 Branches outside Kenya in Tanzania, Uganda,
South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi] accelerated Earnings +39%. Kenya
Commercial Bank corrected 5.88% lower to close at 36.00 and traded
8.749m shares worth 315.057m and traded 54.438% of the Total Volume at
the Exchange today. The Correction was overdue and I expect the
Majority of the Drawdown got taken today.Kenya Commercial Bank is
+21.008% in 2013.

Equity Bank released its FY Earnings yesterday where its FY 2012
accelerated +35.7283%, FY PAT increased  +16.998% FY EPS expanded
+16.845%
and The Dividend was raised 25%. Equity Bank closed unchanged at 28.25
and traded 1.756m shares worth 50.115m. Equity Bank is +18.947% in
2013 and this is a 24 Month High.

Barclays Bank rallied 2.41% to close at 17.00 and was trading at 17.40
+4.82% at the Finish Line. Barclays Bank traded 1.134m shares worth
19.288m. Barclays Bank is +7.936% in 2013.
Diamond Trust firmed 0.71% to close at 141.00 and regain its All Time
Closing High from last month. Diamond Trust is +22.608% in 2013 and
traded 93,100 shares worth 13.135m.
COOP Bank firmed 1.45% to close at 13.95 and traded 697,800 shares.
COOP Bank was trading at session highs of 14.20 +3.27% at the Finish
Line.
Standard Chartered firmed 1.11% to close at 273.00 and traded 9,000 shares.

NIC Bank firmed 1.66% to close at 46.00 and traded 247,100 shares. NIC
Bank is +20.261% in 2013.

Jubilee Insurance traded 14,200 shares all at 200.00 +4.71%.
British American BRITAK firmed 1.44% and closed at 7.05 and traded
1.491m shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Puma Energy has terminated Negotiations with @KenolKobil around the
Potential Acquisition of a Control Shareholding in the Company. This
Announcement was released after the Market closed. KenolKobil closed
unchanged at 13.50 and traded 18,200 shares.

Athi River Mining firmed 0.81% to close at 62.50 and regain its All
Time Closing High Level previously reached on the 22nd through the
25th of February. ARM traded 360,000 shares worth 22.504m and has
rallied +40.134% in 2013.

Bamburi Cement released FY Earnings yesterday where FY PBT retreated
-15.37% to 7.176b, FY PAT retreated -16.675% and FY EPS -15.72%.
Bamburi Cement booked a Gain on The Revaluation of Property Plant and
Equipment of 7.259b onto its Comprehensive Income Statement. Bamburi
Cement eased 0.49% to close at 203.00 and traded 7,900 shares.
East African Portland firmed 1.01% to close at 50.00 and traded 100
shares. EA Portland is +28.205% in 2013.

BAT rallied 1.8909% to close at 539.00 and just 0.185% below its All
Time Closing High of 540.00 reached this Year. BAT traded 34,100
shares worth 18.409m.
BAT released FY Results yesterday where FY Profit Before Tax increased
+6.021%,  FY PAT increased +5.58% and FY EPS expanded +5.58%. BAT
Kenya has an Extreme Dividend Pay Out Policy and is paying a Final
Dividend of 29 shillings a share  [Interim Dividend of 3.5 already
paid]. BAT pays 99.357% of its Earnings Per Share out as Dividends.
The Final Dividend is worth 5.38% of Yield.

EABL firmed 1.06% to close at 285.00 and traded 22,400 shares. There
was Buy Side Demand for 650% more shares than were traded, at the
Finish Line. EABL is +7.54% in 2013 and 9.52% below its All Time
Closing High of 315.00 from the 13th of last Month. The Correction
from that All Time High is complete.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2013
 
 
 
 
 
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