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Tuesday 01st of April 2014 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
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Mindspeak 2014 RICH TV Africa |
Macro Thoughts
Home Thoughts
Nairobi is very seasonal. The Weather and we are now all set to enter the cold period which was described so beautifully by Karen Blixen
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Out Of Africa Karen Blixen Africa |
P.196
The early morning Air of the African highlands is of such a tangible coldness and freshness that time after time the same fancy there comes back to you: you are not on Earth but in dark deep waters, going ahead along the bottom of the Sea. It is not even certain that you are moving at all: the flows of chilliness against your Face may be the deep-sea currents, and your car, like some sluggish electric Fish, may be sitting steadily upon the bottom of the Sea, staring in front of her with the glaring Eyes of her Lamps, and letting the submarine life pass by here. The Stars are so large because they are not real stars but reflections, shimmering upon the surface of the Water. Alongside your path on the sea-bottom, live things, darker than their surroundings, keep on appearing, jumping up and sweeping into the long grass, as crabs and beach-fleas will make their way into the sand. The Lights get clearer, and, about sunrise, the sea-bottom lifts itself towards the surface, a new created Island. Whirls of smells drift quickly past you, fresh rank smells of the olive-bushes, the brine scent of burnt grass, a sudden quelling smell of decay.
And there is that intensely hot period just before the Rains come when makes me think of Spinal Tap and someone is turning it up to 11.
Spinal Tap - "These go to eleven...." @YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xgx4k83zzc
Then of course, in Nairobi, there is a monthly Traffic Cycle which is correlated to Pay Day. The moment everyone gets paid at the end of the month, The Roads teem and suddenly its taking an hour where it took 30 minutes with serious Tail Risks of complete 3 hour+ type debacles. Then as the month moves forward, The Roads start to thin out. Just before Pay Day, You can fly around this City.
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@SAPresident Zuma withdraws from EU-Africa summit Law & Politics |
PRESIDENT Jacob Zuma has confirmed his withdrawal from this week’s European Union (EU)-Africa summit in Brussels, accusing the EU of treating Africans as subjects and wanting to decide who from Africa should be allowed to attend.
"I think that time must pass wherein we are looked (on) as subjects, we are told who must come, who must not come.... It is wrong and causes this unnecessary unpleasantness," the president told the SABC on Sunday while campaigning in the Western Cape for the May 7 national elections.
"I thought the AU (African Union) and EU are equal organisations representing two continents, but there is not a single one of them who must decide for others," Mr Zuma said.
The Department of International Relations and Co-operation said on Sunday that Mr Zuma would not participate in the April 2-3 summit and that International Relations and Co-operation Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane would lead South Africa’s delegation. Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies will also participate.
On Monday, the EU’s ambassador in South Africa, Roeland van de Geer, said the organisation was surprised and disappointed, adding that Mr Zuma had confirmed his participation in a letter on March 25.
"I think ... his attendance would have increased the quality of the summit," Mr van de Geer said, adding that the EU expected at least 26 of the bloc’s 28 heads of state and government to be at the summit.
South Africa and Zimbabwe leaders say they will not attend 4th EU-Africa Summit http://www.globalresearch.ca/several-african-states-boycott-the-eu-summit-in-belgium/5376073
“You have to consider that the EU-Africa Summit is the meeting between the European Union and African continent. I want to be very clear on that, it is not the AU-European Union meeting. Participation is not guided by the membership of the African Union.”
The EU envoy continued by pointing out that “This event is the highest incidence of political dialogue between the European Union and Africa and the intention of the European Union is to make it possible to talk to all who are relevant to the subject of the event, investing in people, prosperity and peace and be able to talk very frankly with them and to have progress in these partnerships between the European Union and this region. That is why Egypt has been invited despite the fact that it has been suspended from the African Union.”
"Until today, March 30, President Bashir has not received an invitation to the summit," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. https://za.news.yahoo.com/eu-seeks-divide-africa-sudan-says-bashir-denied-183137982.html
The summit on Wednesday and Thursday will gather representatives of 90 nations from both continents, including 65 heads of state and government.
"The invitation of this summit to the African leaders was selective and in doing this the European Union is trying to divide the African Union," the Sudanese statement said.
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Geopolitical Musings:Role of Information Flow Law & Politics |
DON DeLillo in his book, Cosmopolis, says: “Everything is barely weeks. Everything is days. We have minutes to live.” And cer- tainly, the 21st century is a world hurtling at a dizzying velocity.
Where once we were far away on the frontier of our world with less than 15,000 landlines with which to connect to each other, today millions of mobile phones connect us all to the world. This has happened over the last decade. The mobile phone in my view has flattened the world and has precipitated rapid convergence of expectations world-wide. In some instances, and particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, we saw these expectations simply explode and then get throttled. I call it ‘throttling’, others might characterise it as a ‘repression’. You can throttle only for so long but then history shows that when the ‘tipping point’ arrives, everything simply gets blown away.
Gil Scott-Heron famously announced: “The Revolution Will Not Be Televised” in his poem and song from 1970.
However, I recall the Iranian revolution of 1978/79 which was televised and which I watched unfold on my TV screen. More than 30 years later, the US is still grappling with the Iranian theocracy and the consequences of that revolution. Interestingly, there is a school of thought that the kingdom is now as brittle as the ‘Peacock Throne’. It is this sense which might be informing the pivot (after a fashion) to Tehran. The counter-revolutionary forces cannot keep a lid on things for a meaningful time. It is a pressure cooker.
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.3776 Dollar Index 80.11 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the world’s biggest economy will need stimulus “for some time.” Japan Yen 103.26 soft Swiss Franc 0.8846 Pound 1.6662 Aussie 0.9260 Australia’s dollar gained as much as 0.4 percent to 93.04 U.S. cents, the highest since Nov. 21, before trading little changed - India Rupee 60.125 South Korea Won 1059.84 Brazil Real 2.2722 Egypt Pound 6.9660 South Africa Rand 10.5948
The dollar fell 0.8 percent in the past three months against a basket of nine other developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro declined 0.7 percent, while the yen gained 1.2 percent and the Aussie surged 3.9 percent.
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.11 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
“Yellen signaled that, while the Fed will continue tapering, they are not in a hurry to raise rates, and that was seen by the market as dovish.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-01/dollar-holds-drop-on-fed-stimulus-bets-before-manufacturing-data.html
Conclusions
Yellen talked the Dollar down but interestingly not by very much. Higher Beta from Sterling, India Rupee, South Africa Rand has pushed the Dollar back quite vigorously lately.
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3776 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Euro zone inflation drops to lowest since 2009 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/us-eurozone-inflation-idUSBREA2U0F320140331
Euro zone inflation hit its lowest level since November 2009 in March, a shock drop that raises expectations the European Central Bank will take radical action to stop the threat of deflation in the currency bloc.
Annual consumer inflation in the 18 countries sharing the euro was 0.5 percent in March, with the pace of price rises cooling from February's 0.7 percent reading, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Monday.
Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 103.26 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
The yen remained lower against the dollar after Bank of Japan data showed the Tankan index for sentiment among large manufacturers in the nation rose to 17 in the first quarter from 16 in the previous period. That compares with an advance to 19 forecast by analysts polled by Bloomberg News before the release.
“The Tankan was weak,” said Kengo Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Some investors buying the dollar against the yen may take profits as it climbed above 103 in the past few days.”
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ Commodities |
The S&P Agriculture Index of eight commodities climbed 6 percent since the start of March. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-30/grain-bulls-proved-right-with-best-rally-since-2010-commodities.html
The S&P GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials including energy and metals was little changed, for an annual advance of 2.7 percent. The MSCI All-Country World index of equities slipped 0.2 percent this month, the Bloomberg Dollar Index was little changed and the Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index dropped 0.3 percent.
Combined net-bullish positions across 11 agricultural products climbed more than fivefold in the first quarter, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. As of March 25, investors held 1.06 million contracts, the most since February 2011. Wheat holdings are the most bullish in 16 months, and coffee bets are the highest in six years.
Wheat traded in Chicago is poised for the biggest quarterly gain since September 2012. Cold, dry weather has reduced the outlook for winter crops in the U.S., the top exporter, just as a rail backlog delays supplies from Canada. Fields in Germany had 49 percent less rainfall than average in the past 180 days, according to World Ag Weather.
Wheat July 2014 3 month Chart 701.5 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=CBOT_W.N14&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3
Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1284.43 [more than $100.00 below its 2014 High] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3
Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 101.37 [A Big Sell above $100.00] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.K14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Emerging Markets
Frontier Markets
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Coface broke the 10 new emerging economies it has identified into two groups. Africa |
The first comprises Peru, the Philippines, Indonesia, Colombia and Sri Lanka, which it named the PPICS.
They had “strong potential confirmed by a sound business environment,” Coface said.
The second group comprises Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia.
But these countries are marked by “very difficult or extremely difficult business environments which could hamper their growth prospects,” Coface said.
However, the head of country risk at Coface, Julien Marcilly, said that in 2001 “the quality of governance in Brazil, China, India and Russia was comparable to that of Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia today.”
But the 10 “new emerging countries” currently accounted for only 11 per cent of the world population whereas the Brics had accounted for 43 per cent of the population in 2001.
The total gross domestic product of the new 10 was only 70 per cent of the output of the Brics in 2001, and they had a current account deficit of about 6 per cent of GDP whereas the Brics had run a surplus on average.
On a positive note, the new 10 had inflation which was about 2.8 percentage points lower than Brics’ inflation in 2001, and their public debt was about 40 per cent of output compared with 54 per cent for the Brics at that time.
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East Africa's new great oil game Africa Report Africa |
The eruption of fighting in South Sudan brought East Africa's political crises into sharp focus at a time of optimism about the region's economic take-off. Undaunted, analysts point to fast-improving transport links and new oil and gas discoveries.
Four leaders dominate the East African diplomatic chess-board, its diplomacy, its soldiering and its business interests. With new railways and road networks, together with new pipelines and electric power grids, they are forging political alliances that will allow them to reshape the region.
At international gatherings such as the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, the four gravitate towards each other: Ethiopia's Hailemariam Desalegn, Kenya's Uhuru Kenyatta, Rwanda's Paul Kagame and Uganda's Yoweri Museveni.
We have refused to be a proxy for foreign powers in this conflict. It's a major shift in our regional diplomatic orientation
Differing in age and political experience, they argue about many details but there is a critical point of consensus. If East Africa is to grasp the economic opportunities now available, there must be a determined effort to integrate its markets and economies, even if that means making concessions and compromises in the short term.
All four run interventionist foreign policies – Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda sent troops into Somalia, while Rwandan and Ugandan troops have been both invited to and expelled from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
They all favour a statist hand on the economic tiller, but they are all building up business classes on whose political loyalty they can rely. All have supported Kenyatta in his attempts to avoid prosecution at the International Criminal Court.
Economic growth and breaking away from dependence on Western markets are common imperatives. None of them enthuse about democracy, particularly in its Western, liberal variants.
Their shared political credo is a kind of pragmatic authoritarianism. Like China's Deng Xiaoping, they do not care whether the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice. Above all, these leaders' solidarity is informed by a common economic interest.
As Gabriel Negatu, regional director of the African Development Bank, points out: "East Africa is the most promising regional bloc. [It] has registered between 5 and 6% growth annually for the past decade. We estimate that regional gross domestic product will expand 18-fold by the middle of the century, from $185bn in 2010 to $3.5trn by 2050. This era is comparable to the period immediately after independence."
This economic promise is based on the depth and scale of integration, says Negatu. If Ethiopia is drawn into the East African Community (EAC), there could be a single market of more than 200 million people. Regional competition and transport links are incentives.
Although Uganda discovered oil in Bunyoro in 2006, production was delayed by disputes with oil companies over the size of a planned local refinery and pipeline routes. Following Kenya's discovery of oil in Turkana in 2010, Kampala has speeded up its plans and signed a pipeline deal with Nairobi.
On 5 February, Uganda signed an agreement worth more than $8bn with the China National Offshore Oil Company, France's Total and Ireland's Tullow to build a refinery at Lake Albert, an export pipeline to Kenya's coast and an oil-fired power station. Such investment depends critically on integration.
"Assuming the reform agenda progresses – a moderate level of customs harmonisation and deepening of a regional trade integration – this would have a tremendous effect on regional growth," says Angus Downie, a research analyst with the Lomé-based Ecobank.
What you are seeing today, regardless of the differences, is a strong consensus within the region to sort out our own issues
By 2020, two mammoth railway projects are due for completion: firstly the Dar es Salaam-Isaka-Kigali route; and secondly the Mombasa-Nairobi-Kigali route. The railways are two of the largest attempts at regional transformation for a century.
They are both critically dependent on China's state-owned banks and construction companies. Through a combination of grants, loans and tied aid agreements, China is almost single- handedly reshaping the region.
"Look, even if you had four, five or six World Banks, there is no way they would have sunk in this kind of capital to individual projects in one region. There is not a bank or an international bond issue that would commit these kinds of resources to single-issue projects. It is just too risky," says a Nairobi-based economic analyst.
But the political economy is another matter: the rush for growth is sharpening inequalities and political discontent. "Not only the rate of growth matters, but also the quality. Governments need to ensure that it is shared across the board," says Negatu.
A recent report by the Society for International Development sounds alarm bells: "The trouble in East Africa is that the speed of change is overwhelming the capacity of the industrial and service sectors to provide the jobs and alternative livelihood opportunities."
Elsewhere, it says: "A formal wage-paying job is a privilege for a tiny minority of East Africa. Just 1.6% of Uganda's, 4% of Burundi's, 5% of Tanzania's and 6% of Kenya's working populations are formally employed."
Without adept political management, the prospect of economies expanding quickly but without a commensurate increase in jobs would worsen inequalities and social tensions. Fast-growing cities such as Nairobi and Kampala are drawing in migrants from across the region, but very few formal jobs are available.
Instead, the shanty towns expand inexorably, housing disenchanted new arrivals who feel cut off from the new economy. Providing them with basic state services and jobs will test the ingenuity of governments.
For governments tempted to ignore the new underclass, South Sudan serves as a cautionary tale. An abiding weakness of governments in East Africa is their ethnocentrism: their tendency to favour crassly their ethnic support bases in the allocation of public sector jobs, appointments, commercial opportunities and government tenders South Sudan's crisis may have been exacerbated by its weak institutions, but the best illustration of this was the government's failure to rein in cronyism, corruption and ethnic rivalries in the state sector. In South Sudan, these weaknesses caused a war. In other countries in the region, they produce bad elections and policy-making, and hold back burgeoning economies.
The explosion of fighting in South Sudan in December 2013 has produced much soul searching and ad hoc diplomacy. Every supporter of Africa's newest state believed they had a right to admonish and advise the two war- ring sides, much to the irritation of East Africa's leaders.
"People say that South Sudan is a failed state. I disagree. South Sudan is a state that never was," says Mabior Garang de Mabior, son of Sudan People's Liberation Movement founder John Garang and a member of former vice-president Riek Machar's negotiating team.
"The first republic of South Sudan is dead. We should now begin considering how to constitute the second republic," he argues.
Beyond clashes between the supporters of Riek and President Salva Kiir, South Sudan's crisis is testing the solidity of regional diplomacy. The biggest danger is that the national conflict could escalate and draw in countries from the region. Immediately problematic was the continued presence of Uganda's troops, with their avowed mission to shore up Salva's government. The January ceasefire agreement contained a clause about withdrawal of foreign troops, but its ambiguity has allowed Juba and Kampala to ignore it. How the Ugandan troops issue is handled will determine the direction and duration of the crisis, according to officials at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the eight-member regional development and security body.
President Museveni mounted a robust defence of the role of Uganda's troops in South Sudan in January, finding a justification in the region's interlocking linguistic, ethnic, political and economic relationships.
At a meeting in Angola of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region, Museveni described the region's problems as ideological and organisational but criticised politicians for lacking discipline: "The manipulation of tribes and religions is a pseudo ideology – is a false ideology – not reflecting the interests of the people but hose of the opportunists and parasites spurred on by foreign interests."
Arguing for the interdependence of the region, he continued: "With the conflicts in eastern [Democratic Republic of ] Congo and South Sudan, the food prices in Uganda have collapsed to the detriment of the farmers that were getting used to the higher prices because of the bigger demand in the region."
However, Uganda's neighbours worry about the risks of the South Sudan conflict spreading and undermining regional integration.
"If violence continues and escalates, we don't want proxy militias acting on behalf of individual countries. That's our main fear at the moment," says a Kenyan diplomat in Nairobi who requested anonymity. He refers to the risk that Khartoum's Islamist regime might exploit the South Sudan crisis for its own ends. It was that risk that partly motivated Kampala's intervention. The individual power plays within the region are a threat to the East African integration project.
Last year, Tanzania's President Jakaya Kikwete urged dialogue between Kagame and the rebels in the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda, precipitating a cold war within the EAC.
Frustrated by Tanzania's hesitancy to fast-track regional integration, Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya formed a 'coalition of the willing' that briefly threatened to break up the EAC. Uganda's intervention in South Sudan and Ethiopia's increasing impatience with Museveni's intransigence on troop withdrawal are exposing similar fault lines. Of proxies and brokers
"A split within IGAD is problematic. Kenya is desperately holding on to an honest broker position. We have refused to be a proxy for foreign powers in this conflict. It's a major shift in our regional diplomatic orientation," says the Kenyan diplomat, who is eager to shake off his country's role as a Western client state.
Museveni has been strengthened by Uganda's intervention and its close relations with the factions of the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Army according to an analyst in Kampala, who adds: "Meles [Zenawi] is gone; Gaddafi and Mubarak are gone; Obasanjo and Mbeki are gone. When Museveni now looks across the political landscape he only sees one potentate... himself." Other diplomats argue that Uganda's speedy intervention prevented much worse bloodletting in South Sudan: "If Museveni had not gone in when he did, it would be Salva in the bush right now. That was the difference."
Is the region, after a decade of peace and relative stability, staring at a possible return to a chaotic past? It is not an easy question to answer, says Martin Kimani, Kenya's ambassador to the United Nations in Nairobi and the government's point man in the South Sudan crisis.
"This crisis actually gives South Sudan the opportunity to rebuild itself in its own image," says Kimani. The crisis also represents the end of the road for the West's state-building project in the South financed by billions of aid dollars.
A successful resolution of the crisis would be a victory for regional diplomacy.
"What you are seeing today, regardless of the differences, is a strong consensus within the region to sort out our own issues. There is no leader in the region that has proclaimed any support for a violent takeover in Juba. That is a major achievement," says Kimani. ●
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I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize in the c21st August 19th 2013 Africa |
Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why ‘The precocity of the Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange is one of the glaring facts of history’, made possible by the ‘reversible escalator’ of the monsoon.’
I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days. China’s dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US’ interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize in the c21st. Therefore, the control of the Indian Ocean becomes kind of decisive and with control China can be shut down quite quickly. A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia is US/NATO Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.
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Bob Diamond-backed investment company Atlas Mara, said it would acquire sub-Saharan African bank ABC Holdings Limited (BancABC) and ADC African Development Corporation AG, for up to $265 million in cash and shares. Africa |
The acquisition comes as a first for former Barclay's boss Diamond, who was ousted from Barclays last year when the bank was fined $450 million for alleged manipulation of the Libor interbank lending rate.
Atlas Mara, Diamond's London-listed shell company, said it would acquire BancABC's shares in excess of 50.1 percent of total shares outstanding for $0.82 per share or the equivalent in Atlas Mara shares.
The company also said it intends to make a public share-for-share takeover offer for ADC at an exchange ratio of 1.25 times Atlas Mara shares per ADC share.
Atlas Mara said it expects to fund the acquisition via proceeds of its previously completed IPO and the issuance of shares.
Diamond raised $325 million by Atlas Mara's London Stock Exchange listing in December, with Africa-focused billionaire entrepreneur Ashish Thakkar.
Atlas Mara is formed of Atlas Merchant Capital LLC, set up by Diamond in New York, and Ashish Thakkar's Mara Group Holdings Limited.
BancABC has been providing financial services in Botswana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe since the last 58 years. ADC is also an Africa-focused banking group with an indirect 47.1 percent stake in BancABC.
South Africa posted its third trade surplus in four months in February as a weaker rand stoked exports and curtailed imports. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-31/south-africa-posts-1-7-billion-rand-trade-surplus-in-february.html
The trade balance switched to a surplus of 1.72 billion rand ($162 million), compared with a deficit of 17.1 billion rand in January, the Pretoria-based South African Revenue Service said in an e-mailed statement today. The median estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a deficit of 3.5 billion rand.
The rand plunged 19 percent against the dollar last year and a further 5.7 percent in January, boosting the competitiveness of the nation’s exports and raising import costs. The rand has rebounded 4.9 percent against the U.S. currency since the beginning of last month.
“We are noticing early signs that the economy is rebalancing, albeit slowly, from consumption to production,” Gina Schoeman, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Johannesburg, said in an e-mailed note to clients before the data was released.
South Africa's President Zuma says he didn't request upgrade to his private residence, asks why he should pay for it http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26822703#TWEET1086652
"They did this without telling me - why should I pay for something I did not ask for," he was shown saying in isiXhosa on local private television ANN7.
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.32% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND
Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.549 [might rally sharply to 10.00] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9654 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +15.87% 2014 [-8.1937% since 25th March] http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
7,805.03 -287.35 -3.55%
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.15% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.36% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
Italy's Eni (ENI.MI) has hired Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) (BAC.N) to advise on the sale of a stake of about 15 percent in its Mozambique gas field which could raise up to $5 billion, several sources familiar with the matter said. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/us-eni-mozambique-idUSBREA2U11F20140331
The oil and gas firm needs partners to share the huge investment required to develop the large Mozambique project. It sold 20 percent of its Mozambique offshore gas acreage to China's CNPC last year in a deal worth around $4.2 billion.
Eni and BAML declined to comment.
Asian investors are again expected to dominate the process as they are cash-rich and keen to secure resources. They are also comfortable investing in projects that they do not operate, unlike most of their Western peers, bankers said. Eni operates the Area 4 in Mozambique's northern Rovuma basin.
Bankers see China's CNOOC as the most likely buyer because it is keen to build up a liquefied natural gas (LNG) business.
"It should go to the Chinese since they're the only ones with the fire power ... Going by exclusion, if CNPC bought the last stake I presume this time it could be Sinopec or CNOOC," said one banker.
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ICC @Ukenyatta Decision Scrib'd Kenyan Economy |
The Chamber considers that, within the following framework, a fixed period adjoumment of approximately six months is appropriate
Nonetheless, the Chamber reiterates its view that it is now incumbent on the Kenyan Govemment to take the necessary actions - through relevant office
Monday’s Eastleigh attack also follows the one that took place in Mombasa a fortnight ago in which six people were killed and scores injured after gunmen opened fire at worshippers at a church in Likoni. http://www.nation.co.ke/news/six-killed-in-Nairobi-terror-attack/-/1056/2264906/-/13re7ox/-/index.html
Six people were killed and dozens others seriously injured in blasts in Nairobi’s Eastleigh estate Monday evening.
Most of those injured in the three explosions, were taken to Mother and Child Hospital, Guru Nanak Hospital and Kenyatta National Hospital, where 20 of the injured were admitted.
The attacks occurred at Sheraton Cafe and The New Kwa Muzairua Super Grill Centre along Eastleigh’s 11th Street at around 7.30pm. The two cafes are barely 300 metres apart.
According to the owner of Sheraton Cafe, Mr Patrick Gakuyu, people were watching the evening news when he heard two explosions followed by complete darkness.
He said when he tried to flee from the scene, he discovered that the door had been locked from outside.
“When I finally managed to get outside, I saw six bodies,” he said. Mr Gakuyu said he suspect the explosions were caused by grenades thrown into the cafe.
A Toyota truck seized in Mombasa with six bombs is believed to be one of the three “dirty bomb” vehicles.
The bombs, which were safely detonated, had enough power to bring down a multi-storey building and cause massive civilian casualties.
Both Kenyan and FBI agents are racing against time to locate and disable the bomb vehicles, also known as Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices.
Kenya last Tuesday restricted all refugees to two camps after a weekend attack on a church near Mombasa.
The Australian government has issued a travel advisory, warning its citizens of possible terrorist attacks in Kenya.
“There is a serious and ongoing risk of large scale acts of terrorism in Nairobi and Mombasa. We advise Australians to avoid unnecessary visits to public places in Nairobi and Mombasa at this time,” the advisory said in part.
A statement posted on the High Commission’s website indicated that in light of the current security environment, the level of advice for Nairobi and Mombasa has been increased.
“We now advise Australians to reconsider their need to travel to Nairobi and Mombasa due to high threat of terrorist attack and high level of crime. We also continue to strongly advise Australians not to travel to border regions with Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan, because of the extremely dangerous security situation,” the statement added.
Conclusions
The Frequency and Intensity have spiked. As I have previously stated asymmetric risks remain potent and have gained Potency.
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Kenya police: Car bombers linked to mall plotters @AP Kenyan Economy |
A Kenyan police official says two men arrested with a car bomb on Kenya’s coast nearly three weeks ago were in contact with plotters of the September terrorist attack on a Nairobi mall that killed at least 67 people.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak with the media, said Monday the vehicle targeting a shopping mall in Mombasa was packed with 173 kilograms (381 pounds) of explosives. The official said the two men, arrested March 11, had spoken on the phone with militants in Somalia connected to the Westgate Mall attack.
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ARM CEMENT FY PAT 2013 +8.00% Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 90.00 Total Shares Issued: 495275000.00 Market Capitalization: 44,574,750,000 EPS: 2.74 PE: 32.846
FY through 31st December 2013 versus FY 2012 FY Revenue 14.179208b versus 11.400569b +24% FY Profit before Tax 2.000060b versus 1.790296b +12% FY Profit after Tax 1.348803b versus 1.245638b +8.00% FY Earnings Per Share 2.74 versus 2.51 +9.1633% FY Dividend 60 cents a share versus 50cents +20%
Company Commentary despite some weakness in Kenya's construction sector during 2013 Cement Sales increased 31% Cement Division is 86% of group's Turnover The Dar-es-Salam plant manufactured cement using imported clinker. The profit margins are expected to improve after the Tanga clinker plant becomes operational in the 2nd half of the year. Group Net Debt 14.7b
Conclusions
Some Margin compression. Expect margin expansion when the Tanga Clinker plant becomes operational. There is a significant Capacity Expansion in Play. ARM's share exhibits very low beta and this is a consequence of outstanding execution.
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01-APR-2014 :: TransCentury Limited Sells Stake in Rift Valley Railways to Citadel Capital Subsidiary Africa Railways. Kenyan Economy |
Africa Railways, a core subsidiary of leading regional investment company Citadel Capital, has acquired an additional 34% stake in the national rail operator of Kenya and Uganda. The transaction, which was executed yesterday, brings Africa Railways’ total ownership of RVR to 85%, up from 51%, following the acquisition of the entire equity stake held by TransCentury Limited (“TransCentury”) a Nairobi-listed infrastructure company.
TransCentury Limited share price data and Earnings here http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTg%3D
Par Value: Closing Price: 28.00 Total Shares Issued: 273950000 .00 Market Capitalization: 7,670,600,000 EPS: 1.66 PE: 16.867
H1 Earnings through June 30th 2013 versus June 30th 2012 H1 Turnover 7.084507b versus 7.064010b +2.9016% H1 Profit from Operating Activities 1.027327b versus 0.996954b +3.0465% Net Finance Costs [437.472m] versus [432.815m] H1 PBT 589.855m versus 564.139m H1 PAT 380.62m versus 326.089m +16.725% H1 EPS 0.89 versus 0.30 +196.66%
The total take-home for the UK Inc represents more than half or 55.1 per cent of the entire Sh34.8 billion paid as dividends by the 15 NSE-listed firms with considerable British interest, according to research @BD_Africa http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/British-firms-reap-Sh19bn-dividend-from-Kenya-units-/-/539550/2264760/-/88iiurz/-/index.html
Vodafone Group raked in a total of Sh7.3 billion in dividends and M-Pesa royalty fees from listed telecommunications firm Safaricom in the year to March 2013, topping the list of London-based conglomerates that have been minting multi-million pounds from Kenya.
The British multinational telecommunications company is the largest shareholder at Safaricom with a 40 per cent stake.
It earned Sh4.9 billion in dividends after Safaricom’s payout was increased to Sh0.31 per share from Sh0.22 a piece in 2012.
Vodafone Sales and Services Ltd (VSSL) owns proprietary rights to the M-Pesa platform and earns royalties accrued from the use of the mobile money transfer solution.
The fee is calculated at the rate of 11 per cent of total M-Pesa revenue, making the mobile innovation a cash cow for Vodafone Plc. Vodafone pocketed Sh2.4 billion from the Sh21.8 billion revenue that Safaricom generated from M-Pesa in the year to March 2013.
The dividend windfall season will also earn Standard Chartered Plc Sh3.3 billion from the Kenyan unit, up from the Sh2.8 billion it made in 2012.
The London-based bank owns 73.89 per cent of StanChart Kenya and is a beneficiary of the lender’s increased dividend payout of Sh14.50 per share in the year to December 2013 from Sh12.50 a year earlier.
Barclays Bank Plc will rake in Sh2.6 billion for the year ended December 2013 from its Kenyan subsidiary.
The London Stock Exchange-listed lender is the majority owner of Barclays Bank of Kenya with a 68.5 per cent stake.
Barclays Plc saw its dividend earnings from Nairobi drop by a third from Sh3.7 billion in 2012 after the Kenyan unit recorded a dip in net profit.
Barclays Kenya cut dividend payout by a third to Sh0.70 last year from Sh1.00 in 2012 after the lender announced a 12.7 per cent drop in full-year profit, weakened by high costs and a one-off staff restructuring cost of Sh788 million.
British American Tobacco Plc earned Sh2.2 billion in dividends from BAT Kenya where the multinational has a 60 per cent stake.
BAT Kenya’s policy of paying out 100 per cent of earnings as dividends has been a boon to the LSE-listed cigarette maker which earned Sh1.9 billion in 2012.
The tobacco firm paid Sh37 per share dividend for the year ended December 2013, which translates to a payout of Sh3.7 billion — equivalent to total net profit — going by the company’s total issued shares of 100 million.
London-headquartered spirits company Diageo is toasting to the performance of East African Breweries Limited where it has earned Sh2.1 billion in dividends for the year ended June 2013.
Diageo, the world’s largest producer of spirits, has a 50.03 per cent stake in EABL and had gulped Sh3.4 billion in earnings from the Kenyan subsidiary in 2012.
The Kenyan brewer cut its dividend pay to Sh5.50 per share last year from the Sh8.75 paid out in 2012.
London-based private equity firm Helios EB Investors with a 24.45 stake in Equity Bank will reap the sixth-largest dividend haul from Kenya’s stock market.
Helios’ take-home from Equity Bank is Sh1.3 billion for the year ended December 2013 after the lender raised its pay-out by a fifth to Sh1.50.
The UK-based PE fund in 2007 invested Sh11 billion to acquire a 24.99 stake in Equity Bank and became the largest shareholder in Kenya’s second-most profitable bank.
Helios has earned a total of Sh4.7 billion in dividends since 2008, underlining the attractive returns for foreign PE firms seeking a piece of growth markets like Kenya.
The stake is now worth Sh28.7 billion, effectively meaning Helios’ investment has grown nearly three-fold in the last six years.
British investors have significant interest in five out of the seven agricultural companies listed on the NSE, continuing the colonial trend where UK firms owned large tracts of tea and coffee estates.
Williamson Tea, Kapchorua Tea, Kakuzi, Limuru Tea and Rea Vipingo have British interests which saw their owners reap millions of shillings in dividends last year.
The Williamson family of Britain has a 51.46 per cent majority stake at Williamson Tea and a further 23.96 per cent shareholding in Kapchorua Tea through their investment vehicle Ngong Tea Holdings.
The British family earned Sh40.7 million in dividends after both Williamson Tea and Kapchorua Tea declared a Sh7.50 dividend per share last year.
The investment is significant considering that Williamson Tea owns 5,274 acres of tea estate in the Rift Valley while Kapchorua holds about 1,656 acres — valued at billions of shillings at current market prices.
Conclusions
If one of your criteria is Dividend Payout then these companies represent an optimal choice.
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N.S.E Today |
The Nairobi All Share edged 0.13 of a point loer to close at 143.76. The All Share is +5.203% in 2014 and 0.84% below a record high from last month.
Equity Turnover of 501.73m was dominated by EABL which traded 54.62% of volume. Kenya Orchards surged 53.33%. CIC insurance set a lifetime high and is +42.0168% in 2014. Kenya Airways surged 4%.
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Kenya Orchards which has not traded for eternity reported FY 2013 Earnings where FY Profit before Tax expanded +27.57% to 966,022.00 but reported a 886% expansion in FY Profit after Tax to 2.415340m versus 244,957.00 previously. Kenya Orchards received a Tax Credit of 1.449318m in 2013 versus a Tax charge of 512,244.00 in FY 2012, which was entirely responsible for the PAT Acceleration. Kenya Orchards rallied +53.33% to close at 4.60 and was trading at an Intra Day high of 5.00 +66.67% at the Finish. Kenya Orchards is a Minnow at the Exchange and at todays closing price has $ Market Cap of $687,203.00. It might present an inexpensive Reverse Takeover Opportunity for someone looking for a listing via an existing Vehicle.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom closed unchanged at 12.35 and traded 1.795m shares worth 22.180m. Safaricom is +13.82% in 2014 and within 1.59% of an All time Record High set earlier this Year. It is entirely unlikely that Safaricom will open M-Pesa [a condition precedent set by the CAK re the Essar Purchase]. This is a personal View.
Kenya Airways surged 4%. Kenya Airways receives its 1st Dreamliner imminently and I believe this will mark the moment when Investors appreciate the Fleet modernisation program is properly underway. This will be a twin sided advantage via better fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs. Kenya airways has rallied sharply over the last 6 months and will head towards 14.5.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 46.00 and traded 595,400 shares. Kenya Commercial was Bid for Size at 46.00 and the price is well underpinned here. Equity Bank eased 0.79% to close at 31.50 and traded 708,100 shares. Equity Bank is +2.43% in 2014.
CIC Insurance was the 2nd biggest Gainer at the Exchange and rallied 5.63% to close at 8.45 and traded 635,100 shares. BRITAM EA traded 2nd at the Exchange and closed unchanged at 18.25 with 2.415m shares worth 44.073m. BRITAM EA is +20.46% in 2014 and trades on a 13.036 Trailing PE Ratio after reporting a 12.274% Acceleration in FY Profit before Tax.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
EABL eased 0.74% to close at 267.00 and traded heavy volume of 880,900 shares worth 236.066m and some 54.62% of the volume traded at the Exchange during todays session. EABL whilst -7.93% in 2014, has rebounded 21.91% since closing at a 52 week low in February. The Senator scenario is a Known Known and I expect EABL to head back to 290.00 and an unchanged Level for 2014.
I attended the ARM Cement Full Year Earnings Release yesterday at the Capital Club. ARM Cement reported a 24% acceleration in FY Turnover to 14.179208b, a 12% acceleration in FY Profit before Tax and a 20% increase in the Dividend Pay Out to 60 cents a share. ARM reported a 31% expansion in Cement Sales which now accounts for 86% of the group's turnover. There was some spread compression as the Dar-Es-Salaam Plant manufactured cement using imported clinker. This created some spread compression which is reversed when the Tanga clinker plant becomes operational. ARM shaved off 0.555% to close at 89.50 and traded 121,300 shares. The share has exhibited a lot of Alpha versus the Benchmark Indices over 1,2 and 5 years.
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